• Despite constant bloodshed, Mexico is ignored during White House race

    Adriana Alvarado / AP

    Rapid response Coahuila state police stand at a checkpoint iin Piedras Negras, Mexico, after a prison break on Sept. 18. Security is among the challenges facing the country.

    By Maria Camila Bernal, Telemundo

    News analysis

    Where is home to the largest number of Americans living abroad, as well as the world's richest man?

    Which country is the United States' third-largest foreign supplier of oil?

    Which nation did President George W. Bush call the U.S.' most important bilateral partner?

    Which close American ally has lost some 60,000 lives in a U.S.-backed effort to combat violent crime?

    The answer to all of the above is Mexico.

    But despite the many ties that bind the two countries, the United States' southern neighbor barely warranted a mention during the presidential campaign, and didn't come up once during the third "foreign policy" debate between Gov. Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama.

    President Barack Obama and Republican candidate Mitt Romney discuss foreign policy in the third and final presidential debate.

    This omission is not lost on many in Mexico.

    "At times the United States sees Mexico as an unconditional ally and they see us with the stigma of an undeveloped nation," said Eduardo Rosales, director of the United States-Mexico relations master's program at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). "But the United States needs to put their eyes south. It is the most important bilateral relationship in the world."

    Some Mexico-related news is grimly familiar to most Americans -- tens of thousands have died in violence since outgoing President Felipe Calderon declared war on the country's drug cartels at the end of 2006.

    Mexico's drug war: No sign of 'light at the end of the tunnel'

    Mexican cartels funnel between $19 and $39 billion worth of illegal drugs to the United States every year, according to the State Department. The United States, in turn, is a major source of weapons for the cartels.

    Mexico's death toll remains stubbornly high and swathes of the country virtually ungovernable despite the Merida Initiative, a $1.9-billion U.S.-funded program aimed at fighting trafficking, organized crime and money laundering.

    A vivid example of the shared security challenges came in August when Mexican police officers thought to be working in cahoots with the cartels ambushed and wounded two U.S. agents.

    Violence, including the discovery of 49 mutilated bodies near the U.S. border, is reaching new levels in the ongoing drug war in Mexico. NBC's Mark Potter reports.

    Oscar Alvarez, a college student in the northern state of Coahuila, alleged that much of the blame for the violence and crime lies with the United States, the world's largest consumer of illegal drugs.

    "The demand on drugs is not being controlled ... and Mexico will always be affected," said Alvarez, 22, who has a small printing business to help cover the costs of school. "Whoever wins (the U.S. election) needs to act. I've heard a lot of talk but I haven't seen anything get done."

    Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series

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    That the drugs trade and the hyper-violent crime that surrounds it is a shared problem has not been widely accepted in the United States, according to UNAM's Rosales.

    "The problem is the consumption and the things that surround it such as violence and money laundering," he said. "It's a reality that is neglected by the United Sates. But our bloodshed continues to grow."

    Cross-border methamphetamine trade booms amid Mexico's 'war on drugs'

    It isn't clear how incoming President Enrique Pena Nieto of Institutional Revolutionary Party, which governed Mexico for about 70 years, will deal with the cartels, but indications are that many in country are losing patience with the drug war.

    "I'm against the war," former Mexican foreign minister Jorge Castañeda told NBC News in May. "At six years on, it is beginning to look more difficult to see any kind of light at the end of the tunnel."

    Jorge Castaneda, former Mexican foreign minister and NBC News Latin America policy expert, talks about the latest developments in Mexico's drug war where this week 49 mutilated bodies were found near the U.S. border.

    Crime and cartels do not define Mexico.

    It is one of the United States' most important trading partners. Its economy, the world's 14th largest, grew at 5.5 percent in 2010 and 3.8 percent in 2011, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative, despite the global economic downturn. Trade between the United States, Mexico and Canada -- members of the North American Free Trade Agreement -- is worth more than trade within the eurozone. 

    Also in this series: Iran, Israel name checks illustrate America's twin obsessions

    A symbol of Mexico's growing international economic prominence is Carlos Slim Helu– a telecoms tycoon with wide-ranging investments including a sizable stake in The New York Times – who topped Forbes' list of the world's richest people in 2012.


    But despite billionaire tycoons and high growth rates, the anemic economy north of the border is hurting Mexico.

    Mexico leader's message to US: 'No more weapons!'

    Isidoro Peyron, owner of a family-run tile-making business in Pachuca, central Mexico, says the United States' slowdown has hit him directly. Whoever wins Tuesday's election must kickstart the economy for the sakes of both the U.S. and Mexico, he says.

    "The next president of the United States needs to reactivate the American economy," said Peyron, 63, who has stopped exporting to the United States. "They are (Mexico's) main commercial partner."

    Nevertheless, U.S. trade with Mexico totaled about $500 billion in 2011. 

    Also in this series: Suspicion of US rife as Obama, Romney jab China

    The 2,000-mile border between the two countries makes this trade easier, but the easy access also fuels another issue that both unifies and divides the U.S. and Mexico: immigration.

    At an estimated 12 million, Mexicans are by far the largest immigrant group in the United States. And around 7 million, or 59 percent of undocumented immigrants, are thought to have come from Mexico.

    The Justice Department inspector general found no evidence that Atty. Gen. Eric Holder even knew about the operation that brought more than 2000 guns into Mexico. Fourteen federal law enforcement officials, however, are connected to the botched gun trafficking operation. NBC's Pete Williams reports.

    While Obama decreed earlier this year that hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants who went to the United States illegally as young children would be entitled to remain, the promise he made in 2008 to reform immigration has not been fulfilled.

    Meanwhile, there have been more deportations under the Obama administration than during any other presidency in modern times.

    Also in this series: Should next US president treat Russia as friend or foe?

    But even though Obama has disappointed many for not delivering on immigration reform, the UNAM's Rosales did not hold out hope that Romney will resolve the problems.

    "If Romney got to power, there would be zero chances of an immigration reform," Rosales said. "If Obama is elected a second term, it's still hard, but the chances increase."

    In his public life, Mitt Romney has said and written little about his ancestors' history in Mexico. It's a little-known fact that there's a whole branch of Mitt Romney's family living south of the border, including his second cousin Leighton Romney, and about 40 other relatives descended from religious pioneers who first traveled to Mexico 125 years ago. NBC's Mike Taibbi reports.

    Romney favors a U.S.-Mexico border fence and opposes education benefits to illegal immigrants, as well as offering legal status to illegal immigrants who attend college, although he would support doing so for those who serve in the armed forces.

    More Mexico coverage from NBC News

    Mike Reyes, who currently resides in Mexico City, lived in Arizona for eight years as an illegal immigrant. He feels the U.S. fails to appreciate what immigrants like himself contributed to the country.

    "We hope the situation with Hispanics can be resolved in this election," said Reyes, 45, who works as a driver for the public transportation system despite having a degree in business.

    Net Mexican immigration to the United States has stopped growing and may even have declined in recent years, according to a recent study. But with about half of Mexico's population classified as poor, economic realities are likely to continue propelling many Mexicans north for years to come. 

    So immigration policies pursued by the winner of the 2012 presidential race will have an impact not only on the United States but Mexico.

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  • Top 10 foreign policy issues facing Obama

    Difficult situations remain for President Obama in Syria, Afghanistan, Iran and Israel. NBC's Richard Engel discusses what Obama needs to do to overcome these challenges in his second term.

    By Richard Engel, NBC News

    News analysis

    Updated at 5:41 a.m. ET on Nov. 7: Barack Obama faces no shortage of foreign challenges as he enters his second term as commander in chief.

    While it is impossible to predict what may come, here’s a look at 10 issues likely to emerge as priorities for his administration:

    1. Possible Afghan collapse/civil war
    The Afghan government has been propped up by American and NATO troops and money but has failed in its basic functions of establishing national trust, security and unity. Afghanistan could devolve into a civil war as U.S. troops draw down in 2014, with old rivalries re-emerging between the north and south/southeast.

    Watch the drama of election night quickly unfold in a three minutes montage of sights and sounds.

    Once again, the country could be torn by an ethnic war between the Pashtuns and the now-defunct Northern Alliance, a legion of Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara militias. The risk is that Afghan security forces will then split along ethnic lines and President Hamid Karzai, whom critics accuse of being an uncooperative U.S. ally, could become an even greater liability.


    On a recent visit to Afghanistan I spoke to some Tajik villagers outside Kabul, who promised me they would start fighting once American troops leave. They said they would battle a group of pro-Taliban Pashtun villagers nearby. When asked if Karzai's troops would be able to stop a clash, one tribal elder told me, "The corrupt government in Kabul? It can't do anything."

    The dangers of an Afghan collapse are many: Afghan deaths, a loss of American prestige, a loss of NATO prestige, a moral blow to U.S. troops and veterans, a Taliban resurgence, huge setbacks for women, and greater power for Pakistan and Pakistani extremists.

    Read more Afghanistan coverage from NBCNews.com

    Slideshow: Afghanistan: Nation at a crossroads

    Aref Karimi / AFP - Getty Images

    More than ten years after the beginning of the war, Afghanistan faces external pressure to reform as well as ongoing internal conflicts.

    Launch slideshow

    2. Possible Iran implosion or explosion
    Iran, which is being pushed to a breaking point by U.S.-led currency and banking sanctions, won't simply sit back and watch its economy crumble. Persia is 7,000 years old and will fight to survive.

    The increasingly isolated country is likely to act in one of three ways: accommodation and negotiation, weaponization, or diversion.

    Faced with the crippling sanctions, Iran could simply decide it is paying too high a cost to pursue its nuclear program and could opt for negotiations and reconciliation with the United States and other members of the international community. This is clearly the preferred option of American leaders.

    The other possibilities are more problematic. Iran could rush toward a nuclear capability, deciding the best way to survive is to obtain weapons so horrific that no one would dare attack. A nuclear program has arguably worked as a deterrent for North Korea and other states -- would Moammar Gadhafi have been deposed and summarily killed if Libya had had nuclear weapons? Iranians might not think so.

    The Iranian economy is in free fall, with its currency, the rial hitting a record low. NBC's Ali Arouzi reports.

    Source: Back-channel talks but no US-Iran deal on one-to-one nuclear meeting

    A less risky approach would be to provoke a diversionary conflict through Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, the Shiites in Bahrain, the Kurdistan Workers Party in Syria and Turkey, its position in the Strait of Hormuz -- or it could try to inflame anti-American and anti-Israeli sentiment.

    Iran also could try to attack the American economy through sabotage or cyber warfare. Cornered as it is, Iran could become the aggressor instead of -- as it sees itself -- the passive victim.

    Slideshow: Everyday life in Iran

    At schools, in shops, and on the streets of big cities and small towns, daily life plays out in Iran.

    Launch slideshow

    How Iran acts is up to its choosing but it's hard to see how it won't act -- for better or worse -- as the sanctions continue to bite.

    Read more Iran coverage from NBCNews.com

    3. Rise of the Muslim Brotherhood
    The Arab Spring has empowered the Muslim Brotherhood across the Middle East and beyond. It and other ideologically similar and allied groups run the governments of Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza.

    In Syria, the Brotherhood has a strong presence among the rebels and in Yemen, it runs half the government and much of the state's day-to-day functions. In Jordan and Morocco, the Brotherhood is the main opposition to the countries' ruling royal families. In leaderless Libya, it is an increasingly organized voice. And in Algeria, the movement's officials warn that their revolution is coming.

    The Muslim Brotherhood's influence in the Middle East is likely to evolve in one of two ways. Military regimes that have been pushed aside could fight back and launch counter-Islamic revolutions, clawing back the Brotherhood's gains and keeping it tied up in internal political battles. This is already starting to happen in Egypt.

    Analysis: Egypt's big turn under the Muslim Brotherhood

    Conversely, the Muslim Brotherhood could consolidate its gains and dominate electoral politics in the Middle East for the next several years.

    For the United States, the rise of the Brotherhood is not in itself a major challenge. Most of its leaders say they want good relations and economic ties with Washington. The problem, however, is Israel. The Brotherhood is fundamentally anti-Israel, and Washington is fundamentally pro-Israel.

    While analysts can debate which presidential candidate is closer to Israel, both have expressed their commitment to it and its security -- just as every U.S. president has done.

    But the Muslim Brotherhood will not make the same commitments to Israel's integrity and security. While campaigning to win the election in Egypt, the Brotherhood held rallies featuring speakers who called for the restoration of the Islamic Caliphate with Jerusalem as its capital.

    In an attempt to convey what he sees as a threat to Israel's existence, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu used a cartoon to illustrate how close he says Iran is to developing a nuclear weapon. In a speech at the United Nations General Assembly he asked the world to help stop them. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    The Brotherhood does not understand why Washington chooses to befriend one small country at the expense of relations with millions of Arabs and over a billion Muslims. Washington rejects having to make this choice.

    This rift could become a showdown and devolve into violence. The timing depends on American policy and outside provocations that can be either by design -- "peace" flotillas to Gaza, Hamas rockets, an Israeli assault on Gaza -- or by accident, such as bigoted and dumb Internet movies.

    4. Cyber threat
    The United States has spent a decade fighting terrorists with some notable and many debatable successes. But bombs aren't the only kind of threat. In fact, a successful cyber attack could cause national and international chaos far exceeding a bombing in a major U.S. city.

    Defense Secretary Leon Panetta recently warned about a possible cyber Pearl Harbor. Many military officials and analysts I know fully agree with him.

    Panetta: Cyber intruders have already infiltrated US systems

    5. Israeli strike on Iran
    Israel may attack Iran's nuclear program if it believes sanctions are failing. The strike would likely delay but not stop the program, experts say. For the time being, Israel has decided to wait and see what impact the international sanctions have.

    If Iran chooses a quick rush to make a bomb, Israel will most likely change course and opt for a military solution. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu made that point abundantly clear when he drew a red line at the United Nations and held up a picture of a bomb.

    Read more Israel coverage from NBCNews.com

    6. Revival of al-Qaida/Ansar al-Sharia
    Al-Qaida's leaders have been killed and hunted, but the group hasn't gone away. Many al-Qaida factions have re-branded themselves under a new name: Ansar al-Sharia (partisans of Islamic law). Some of the militants also are finding new comfortable homes in the post-Arab Spring Middle East, blending into Salafist (Sunni fundamentalist) movements.

    7. Rift with Pakistan
    Pakistan and the United States have been locked in an uncomfortable marriage since the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks on the United States, and arguably long before that.

    US, Pakistan should 'divorce,' ex-ambassador to Washington says

    Critics accuse Pakistan of taking American counter-terrorism money and military support, while at the same time supporting terrorist groups.

    Slideshow: Pakistan: A nation in turmoil

    Muhammed Muheisen / AP

    Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.

    Launch slideshow

    If the United States cuts off Pakistan -- which may happen as Washington becomes less reliant on Pakistani supply routes into Afghanistan -- Islamabad could become more belligerent, which would cause relations to deteriorate further. The withdrawal from Afghanistan will change the costly status quo that has existed with Pakistan since 9/11, and that change is unlikely to go smoothly.

    Read more Pakistan coverage from NBCNews.com

    8. Mexico and the growing war on drugs
    According to some estimates, Mexico has become the most dangerous country in the world. Around 50,000 people have been killed in the country's drug wars. It is unclear if Mexico's President-elect Enrique Peña Nieto will be able to contain the violence, which has spread south to Central America and is showing signs of leaking north into the United States.

    Read more Mexico coverage from NBCNews.com

    Slideshow: Narco culture permeates Mexico, leaks across border

    Mexico's drug war is also part of a drug culture with roots in music, movies and even religion

    Launch slideshow

    9. US 'pivot' to Asia/China slowdown
    In 2011, China overtook Japan to become the world's second-largest economy after the United States. The Obama administration has acknowledged China's growing military and political power, and has pledged to "pivot" or deploy more than half of the U.S.' naval assets to the Asia-Pacific region by the end of the decade. This, some argue, has contributed to souring relations between the two powers.

    Adding to the troubles, China isn't cheap anymore and Chinese workers are no longer as willing to accept poor conditions and little pay. Strikes are increasingly common. Removing dissent from Chinese Internet sites is a full-time job for government censors. Growth rates remain high, but the cost of living and labor demands are going up.

    Factories are already moving out of China to cheaper labor markets in Indonesia and Bangladesh. If China's economic growth slows for a prolonged period, the world will be dramatically impacted. The country's economic expansion has driven up oil prices and has made parts of the Middle East, Russia and Brazil exceptionally rich. Could labor unrest threaten the ruling Communist Party's grip? Any move from this giant creates a huge wake that will quickly wash onto American shores.

    Read more China coverage on NBC's Behind The Wall

    10. United States: Drifting?
    For a decade, the United States has made fighting terrorism its main foreign policy goal. This is by definition a reactionary policy and is limited in focus -- without a global vision or sense of destiny.

    In contrast, American rivals appear to have grand plans in place. Russia, under President Vladimir Putin, seems intent on regaining its Soviet and Tsarist glory. Turkey is flexing its muscles regionally and is re-establishing some of its Ottoman legacy and prominence. China is looking to consolidate its hold on swathes of Asia and beyond.

    Full coverage: NBCNews.com's The World is Watching series

    But what does the United States want to do? What is our goal? It is impossible to be influential if we don't know where we are going -- and any malaise would be damaging to the national interest. World powers must move to survive. Drifting is sinking.

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