Mary Altaffer / AP

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, right, and running mate Rep. Paul Ryan, R-Wis., made one final stop in Cleveland on Election Day, but to no avail. President Barack Obama held Ohio and won re-election, according to NBC projections.

In the final week of the long presidential election campaign, Republican candidate Mitt Romney lavished advertising time and personal visits on three Midwestern states: Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa.

He fell short in all three states Tuesday, a failure that scuttled his chances of winning the White House.

In Ohio, where Obama held a narrow two-point margin, almost two of five voters said someone in their household had been laid off in the past four years. Yet Romney could do no better than manage a split with Obama among those voters, according to NBC exit poll data.

Only three out of 10 Ohio voters said their family’s financial situation was worse than it was four years ago. Romney won those voters by better than a 5-to-1 margin, but there weren’t enough of them for him to carry the state.

And Obama was boosted in the state by the 24-point advantage he enjoyed among labor union households, about a fifth of the Ohio electorate. The two rivals split the non-union vote almost evenly, with Romney winning 50 percent and Obama 48 percent.

Obama also benefited from his role in the bailout of the auto industry, a decision that had been sharply questioned by Romney.

Based on exit polls, three out of five Ohio voters approved federal aid to the automakers. Those who approved of the bailout voted for Obama by a 3-to-1 margin.

Even as Romney was losing the state, 10 House Republican incumbents in Ohio were headed for re-election, so the outcome in the state didn’t reflect a broad anti-Republican backlash but more specific factors that doomed Romney.

Likewise in Iowa Romney lost even as two House GOP incumbents -- Reps. Steve King and Tom Latham -- won expensive, hotly contested races.

In Iowa the gender gap worked even more dramatically to Romney’s disadvantage than elsewhere, with nearly 60 percent of Iowa’s women voters rejecting Romney – compared with 55 percent in the national exit poll sample. Romney was also hurt in Iowa by the perception that his policies would favor the rich – an idea that 54 percent of Iowa voters agreed with. Among that group, Obama won by better than 7 to 1.

Finally in Wisconsin, Romney fell short, even with native son Rep. Paul Ryan on the ticket.  Romney had good reason to hope Wisconsin would flip into the GOP column, especially after Republican Gov. Scott Walker was elected in 2010, battled successfully to curb the power of public sector labor unions, and then triumphed in a recall election last year.

But Romney won a favorability rating of only 46 percent in Wisconsin, lagging Walker’s by 10 points.

Union households accounted for about a fifth of the Wisconsin electorate and Obama won their vote by about 2-to-1, based on exit polls. The candidates split the non-union vote in Wisconsin.

And as in Ohio the Wisconsin voters who favored the federal bailout of GM and Chrysler backed Obama over Romney, 79 to 20 percent.

More election coverage from NBCNews.com:

• Obama wins re-election; Ohio, Iowa, Wisconsin prove pivotal
• Democrats gain in Senate with wins in four states
• Rape remarks sink two Republican Senate hopefuls
• In costliest-ever Senate race, Warren beats Brown for Mass. seat
• Maine's Harley-riding King vowed to 'shake up' D.C.
• Republicans to maintain control of House, NBC News projects
• Colorado, Washington approve recreational marijuana use
• In 11 governor races, it's about jobs and taxes
• Majority of voters see American on wrong track

Follow NBC Politics on Twitter and Facebook

Democrats control the Senate by a 53-47 majority. Two years ago, Republicans seized control of the House of Representatives in the 2010 mid-term election and hold a 240 to 192 majority.

In Florida, two-term Democratic Senator Bill Nelson faced minor opposition in his primary, but was expected to be in for a tough re-election battle in November against the Republican primary winner, U.S. Representative Connie Mack.

Mack, the son of a former senator, easily won the Republican primary over three other candidates and could edge out the incumbent Nelson in a general election, according to a recent poll. But political analysts said Nelson has ample resources to attack Mack.

"Tonight's results really show that a lot of Republicans are voting for the candidate they think will have the best chance of beating the Democrat" and putting aside negative concerns about individual candidates, said University of South Florida political analyst Susan MacManus.

Because of population shifts over the past decade, Florida added two congressional seats, but the redrawn districts pitted two incumbent Republicans against each other. Republican John Mica, a 20-year veteran, easily beat Sandy Adams, a favorite of the conservative Tea Party movement, in a central Florida district.

The Cook Political Report considers seven of the 23 Democratic-controlled U.S. Senate seats to be toss-ups. Nelson's re-election chances were seen as particularly tough. Three of the 10 Republican-held seats up for election this year are toss-ups.

"It's a 50-50 ball game right now," said Cook Political Report analyst Jennifer Duffy. "When I look at the map, I find it improbable that any party would have 52 (Senate) seats, with 51 more probable."

A 50-50 tie in the Senate would give control of the chamber to the candidate who wins the presidency - Democratic President Barack Obama or his Republican challenger, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney.

Wisconsin race 
A wild card in the Senate will be if former Maine Governor Angus King, an independent, wins the seat of retiring Republican Olympia Snowe. King has said he will not declare which party he will side with until after the November vote.

Wisconsin and Connecticut voters set the stage to fill U.S. Senate seats being vacated by retiring Democrat Herb Kohl and Joseph Lieberman, an independent who caucuses with the Democrats.

Wisconsin Democrat Tammy Baldwin, a seven-term U.S. representative and avowed liberal, ran unopposed in her party's primary. Former four-term Wisconsin Governor Tommy Thompson beat businessman and political neophyte Eric Hovde and two other candidates for the Republican nomination.

Thompson may benefit in the general election from Romney's choice over the weekend of Wisconsin congressman Paul Ryan as his vice presidential running mate, analysts said.

However, Ryan is a polarizing figure in Washington, where he led his party's push to cut domestic spending, lower taxes and scale back the size of the federal government as chairman of the House of Representatives Budget Committee.

The Connecticut contest was won by favorite Linda McMahon, a professional wrestling executive. McMahon is seeking another chance after she lost a Senate race two years ago despite spending $50 million.

On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Christopher Murphy was favored to win the primary and has already been targeted by McMahon's campaign ads.

In June, a Quinnipiac University poll found Murphy with a slight lead over McMahon if the two candidates face each other in the November general election.

Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar, a Democrat, was predicted to be heavily favored in November against the winner of the Republican contest. The party-endorsed candidate, Republican state representative Kurt Bills, was leading handily with more than half the vote counted. 

(Additional reporting by Edith Honan in New York, David Bailey in Minneapolis and David Adams, Tom Brown and Barbara Liston in Florida.; Writing by Andrew Stern. Editing by Cynthia Johnston and Christopher Wilson) 

Jeffrey Phelps / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney and his vice presidential running mate Rep. Paul Ryan a welcome home rally Sunday, Aug. 12, in Waukesha, Wis.

WAUKESHA, Wis.-- The largest crowd of the campaign so far for a Mitt Romney event welcomed home favorite son Rep. Paul Ryan at a massive rally here in the congressman's district Sunday night, pushing the GOP's vice presidential nominee to tears as he took the stage, setting off cheers with two simple words:

"Hi mom."

With that, voice cracking, Ryan showed his Wisconsin credentials to a crowd the Romney campaign hopes will be emblematic of the charismatic congressman's support in the Badger state, a reliably Democratic enclave the Republican candidate hopes to turn red this fall. 

"My veins run with cheese, bratwurst, a little Spotted Cow, Leinie's, and some Miller," Ryan said, mentioning two well-known local beers. "I was raised on the Packers, Badgers, Bucks and Brewers. I like to hunt here, I like to fish here, I like to snowmobile here. I even think ice fishing is interesting."

"I'm a Wisconsinite through and through," Ryan said to cheers from a crowd which contained many members of Ryan's extended family, and which the campaign estimated to be more than ten thousand strong, likely the largest turnout ever for a Romney event.

The energy generated by Ryan seemed to inspire the man at the top of ticket, who took on a heckler midway through his own remarks, then turned the moment into an indictment of President Obama's campaign, who's tactics have riled Romney in recent weeks.

Obama gives Ryan a double-edged welcome to the race

"You see young man, this group here is respectful of other people’s rights to be  heard," Romney said as the heckler was removed. "And you ought to find yourself a different place to be disruptive, because here we believe in listening to people with dignity and respect."

"There’s no question but if you follow the campaign of Barack Obama, he’s going to do everything in his power to make this the lowest, meanest negative campaign in history. We’re not going to let that happen," Romney continued. "This is going to be a campaign about ideas about the future of America. This is a campaign about greatness, about America’s future for your children, for the world. Mr. President take you campaign out of the gutter, let’s talk about the real issues that America faces."

Romney and Ryan were introduced by two other leading figures in the Republican party nationally, both born and raised here in Wisconsin: RNC Chairman Reince Preibus and Governor Scott Walker, who recently survived a recall election and has become a rallying point for Republicans nationwide.

JANESVILLE, Wis. -- Campaigning for the GOP nominee in his home state with just 100 days before the presidential election, Congressman Paul Ryan said he is confident Mitt Romney can win here in the Badger State this November.

"We haven't gone Republican on top of the ticket since 1984 but we think this time is different. We think it’s different because people in Wisconsin are tired of the direction Washington is going. They don't the president's policies have worked," Ryan told NBC News in an interview Sunday evening. They think, “this is not the uniter. This is not the hope and change. This is a man who is dividing us, who is giving us terrible economic policies, who is growing government, who is growing the debt, and that just doesn't rub right with Wisconsinites."

And the Republican National Committee Chairman predicted victory as well:

"If we win Wisconsin, I think it is lights out for Barack Obama," Chairman Reince Preibus told reporters in Waukesha.

Addressing crowds at Victory Centers throughout Wisconsin this weekend, Rep. Ryan was joined at points by Sen. Ron Johnson and the RNC Chairman, who is originally from Wisconsin. These events – complete with an official Romney bus -- were part of a big surrogate push throughout the country while Romney is overseas.

"This is a national campaign. All these battleground states, what we  want to do is get the message out, President Obama's policies aren't working, we need to go a different direction and we also want to thank all our volunteers," Ryan said -- avoiding the question if this surrogate blitz is really a tryout to be Romney's vice presidential pick.

Sen. Johnson weighed in briefly on the VP speculation.

"I think Paul would do a phenomenal job as vice president.  Nice thing that Gov. Romney has a lot of great choices.  So I've got faith that he'll choose a good one," the senator said.

But Rep. Ryan, who earlier in the day attended the Dousman Derby Days parade and fair where he participated in the 2012 Wisconsin State Frog Jump contest, continued to avoid any talk of being on Romney's ticket.

"I don't think it does the Romney campaign any help or favors to speculate or feed the speculation on this stuff so that's why I just don't make comments about it," he said when asked if he was a 'dark horse' for Romney to select.

The Wisconsin Congressman heads to the 19th District of Florida Monday to campaign for Chauncey Goss who is running for Congress before heading back to Washington, DC for the week.

MILWAUKEE, Wisc. -- Making his first campaign stop in the Badger State, Newt Gingrich was quick to share his Wisconsin ties.

“We own a share of Green Bay stock so we have ties to the whole state in that sense,” Gingrich said, adding that his wife, Callista, grew up here and her mother still resides in White Hall.

The former House Speaker addressed a few hundred people at Marquette University and wrapped up his almost hour-long lecture speaking about the popular Wisconsin Congressman, Paul Ryan.

Gingrich praised the Wisconsin native hours after the Republican budget passed the house and just as news began to speculate that Ryan would endorse Mitt Romney before Tuesday’s primary in the state.

“His budget is very, very positive and it’s very exciting,” the Speaker said, acknowledging that Ryan responded well to critiques. “His budget is dramatically better than the Congressional Budget Office will score it because the bureaucrats at CBO completely misunderstand the power of people changing their behavior and it’s really unfortunate.”

Ryan, who represents Wisconsin’s 1st Congressional district, saw his $3.5 trillion budget plan pass the House Thursday will all but ten Republicans voting in favor of it.
 
But last May, Gingrich referred to Ryan’s plan as “right wing social engineering,” showing little admiration for the Republican budget proposal on NBC’s Meet the Press.

Tonight, Gingrich’s tone was different, and he said his remarks last spring were “vastly overblown by the news media.”

“I’ve always endorsed his [Ryan’s] proposal to block grant Medicare, I mean Medicaid, I think it’s a good idea. And I admire both his intelligence and his courage because he’s doing a lot of things,” he said.

While tonight mark’s Gingrich’s first appearance in the state, Callista has been campaigning on her husband’s behalf all week – her first solo campaign trip all cycle.

While there were few applause lines for Gingrich in the college auditorium, there was a lively back and forth between one attendee and the Speaker over where your rights come from.

After listening to Gingrich describe “American values,” a man questioned if Gingrich meant specifically Christian values and how that is fair under the first amendment and freedom of religion.

“What about people who maybe are agnostic or atheist. What about those Americans?” the man in the audience, who left as soon as the interaction was over, asked.

“They can live here but they have no explanation of where their rights come,” Gingrich shot back.

This back and forth continued for almost five minutes until the Speaker finally said, “next question.”

Gingrich, who is struggling to remain seen as a credible candidate, holds three events in Wisconsin on Friday – including a Green Bay Brats and Beer Rally.

Mark Hirsch / Getty Images

Recall volunteers add to the stack of boxes containing signatures to recall Gov. Scott Walker on Tuesday.

MADISON, Wis. -- Opponents of Wisconsin's Republican Gov. Scott Walker submitted nearly twice as many signatures Tuesday as required to force a recall election, but still face the challenge of transforming public outrage over his moves against unions into actual votes to oust him from office.

If Walker is worried, he's not showing it: As the petitions were delivered to election officials, Walker was out of state raising money to defend himself and the agenda that has made him a national conservative hero.

The 1 million signatures that United Wisconsin, the coalition that spearheaded the effort along with the Democratic Party, said were collected far exceeds the 540,208 needed and amounts to 23 percent of the state's eligible voters.

Walker was elected in 2010 as part of a national Republican tide, and quickly angered unions and others with aggressive moves that included effectively ending collective bargaining rights for nearly all public workers.

Recall circulators in neon vests who were turning in the petitions Tuesday surrounded a U-Haul truck filled with boxes of documents. The group held hands and formed a line leading toward the office of the Government Accountability Board, as some protesters yelled anti-Walker chants. The boxes inside the office full of petitions targeting Walker were stacked five high and 11 rows deep.

Petitioners said they were submitting about 305,000 more signatures than were needed to trigger a recall election against Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, and said they also exceeded the number needed to force recall elections of four Republican state senators, including Majority Leader Scott Fitzgerald.

Walker's supporters would have to successfully challenge about 46 percent of the signatures to stop a recall election, in which the governor would likely run against a yet-to-be-decided Democratic challenger.

"I don't know if it's insurmountable, but it would be extremely difficult," said Joshua Spivak, a recall expert and senior fellow at Wagner College in New York.

During the recall of California Gov. Gray Davis in 2003, petitioners also turned in almost double what was needed and only about 18 percent were tossed, Spivak said.

Wisconsin Democratic Party Chairman Mike Tate said given the number of signatures collected, Walker shouldn't seek delays and instead let the vote proceed.

"Does anyone really honestly believe we're not going to have an election?" Tate said.

Spivak said he would expect strong voter turnout for a recall election against Walker, noting that in California turnout rose from 36 percent in the general election to 61 percent for the Davis recall.

"There's going to be so much focus on this, it is not going to be like a special election where turnout is suppressed," Spivak said.

'Stand with me'
Walker expressed confidence Tuesday that he will survive a recall and that voters will reward him for balancing a $3.6 billion budget shortfall without laying off state employees or raising taxes.

"I look forward to talking to the people of Wisconsin about my continued promises to control government spending, balance the budget, and hold the line on taxes," he said in a statement.

"Instead of going back to the days of billion-dollar budget deficits, double-digit tax increases and record job loss, I expect Wisconsin voters will stand with me and keep moving Wisconsin forward."

Republican Party Chairman Brad Courtney issued a statement denouncing what he called a baseless and expensive recall. An election is expected to cost at least $9 million.

The governor's supporters have been training volunteers how to vet signatures and they plan to create a database where names will be entered and verified. Walker has already successfully sued the state elections board to require it to do a more extensive review of the signatures than originally planned in order to catch duplicates and obviously fake names like Mickey Mouse.

The Government Accountability Board has said its review will take 60 days or more and it will go to court as soon as this week to seek more than the 31 days allowed under the law. Board director Kevin Kennedy said it was too early to know how long would be needed or if officials would stop the review once they determined enough were valid to certify an election.

Tate said he didn't expect a Walker recall election would happen before May. Walker has said he thinks it will be in June.

Recalls have become common in Wisconsin since the political tumult of 2011 that saw Walker and Republicans pass the collective bargaining changes, one of the country's most restrictive laws requiring photo identification at the polls, and a budget that included an $800 million cut to public schools.

The opposition started with massive protests and then grew into organized campaigns — first to recall state senators, then Walker himself. Last summer, six Republican state senators and three Democrats faced recall elections. Two Republicans lost, leaving the party with a one-vote majority in the Senate.

A recall against Walker couldn't officially be filed until after he had served a year in office, an anniversary reached earlier this month.

But Walker hasn't been waiting around to see what happens. He has been on the air nonstop, saying that while some of his decisions to balance the budget were difficult, the state is in a better financial position and will prosper in the long run.

The governor has been raising money at a furious clip. He was hosting a $2,500 per-person fundraiser in New York City on Tuesday and recently attended fundraisers in Texas, Kentucky and Tennessee. He is taking full advantage of both the conservative star persona he built as he put Wisconsin at the center of the national labor rights debate and a quirk in state law allowing those targeted for recall to ignore normal contribution limits until an election date is set.

As of mid-December, he had raised $5.1 million, with about half coming from out-of-state donors.

Democrats, who have no candidate raising money to challenge Walker, concede they will not be able to match him dollar for dollar. Instead, they are counting on the same type of energy that drove the protests and the petition drive to translate into the campaign.
Two prominent Democrats, former U.S. Sen. Russ Feingold and retiring U.S. Sen. Herb Kohl, have repeatedly said they aren't interested. Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett, who lost to Walker by 6 percentage points, issued a statement praising recall circulators but did not indicate whether he would enter the race.

Besides Davis, the only other successful recall of a governor in the nation's history was North Dakota Gov. Lynn Frazier in 1921.