Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

Social media campaign analysis for Tuesday, Oct. 2. Click the image for the full daily report.

Throughout a summer of political turmoil over the budget, taxes, national security and gaffes, one issue — health care — has consistently defined the presidential campaign as President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney head into their first debate Wednesday evening, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of more than 3 million comments on Twitter and Facebook.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

Every day since June 28 — when the Supreme Court upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which Obama signed into law in 2010 — "Health Care" has been the No. 1 driver of conversation about the president, making up more than a quarter of positive commentary, according to the analysis:

Among negative commenters, "Obamacare" has consistently been the top driver, as well, only occasionally trumped by "Gas Prices":

Taken together, the two categories make up slightly more than 44 percent of all commentary on Obama over the 3+-month period, an emphasis that's easy to see in this visual representation of all election conversation around the president:

For this report, NBCPolitics.com analyzed 3.46 million social media posts using ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

It isn't the same as a traditional survey, which seeks to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

More than three months after the court's decision, and even as the issue has receded in media coverage, health care is still what they're talking about:

For Romney, the debate may offer an opportunity to more clearly define himself. Over the same 3+-month period, primary drivers of positive conversation have emphasized Romney's personal characteristics over specific issues:

Critics of Romney have also zeroed in on their general perception of him. The leading negative topic — by just 1 percentage point — has been "Women's Issues" (generally access to abortion and equal pay). Right after that come questions about his connection to "real Americans," his convictions and his religion.

Likewise — and in contrast with Obama — the visual representation of all 1.14 million posts about Romney indicates a high interest in whether he can win in November, as opposed to his stands on specific issues:

NBCNews.com will live-stream the debate from Denver at 9 p.m. ET.

Most social media users approve of the Supreme Court's health care ruling last week but believe it will help Republicans in the November election, according to msnbc.com's computer-assisted analysis of tens of thousands of posts on Twitter and Facebook.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The court upheld nearly all of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on a 5-4 vote Thursday. The consensus in news reports and among political pundits was that the ruling was a major victory for President Barack Obama.

But among people who use social networking sites, 56 percent of those who stated a clear opinion on the decision's political impact said they thought it was more likely to energize Republican voters in November. Forty-four percent said it was likely to be more helpful for Democrats.

(Msnbc.com analyzed 175,000 Twitter and Facebook posts mentioning the ruling from midday Thursday through midday Monday. The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations to gauge public opinion in new media. Crimson Hexagon reports a 3-percentage-point margin of sampling error for this type of online sentiment analysis.)

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Overall, 60 percent of online commenters approved of the decision, with many of them telling stories about how it would have an immediate impact on their families.

Supreme Court upholds health care law
Health care ruling could leave poorest Americans at greatest risk

Writing on Facebook, Cathy Weller of Cocoa Beach, Fla., described herself as "a fiscal conservative, libertarian leaning, social progressive." She wrote of losing her health insurance when she lost her job and the difficulty she had insuring herself because of her pre-existing condition — cancer:

All of a sudden I found myself researching health insurance options. Imagine my surprise to find there were none. None. Not a few expensive ones, but none. It didn't matter if I was willing to pay $10,000 a month for health insurance, it was just not available to me, anywhere for any amount of money. This was the first time I personally came up against the issue of health insurance availability having worked constantly up to that point and always having employer offered insurance.

Of opponents of the act, Weller wrote: "I wonder at their sense of security. Do they really imagine themselves to be invulnerable to what so many fellow citizens are going through?"

Nearly a quarter of those supporting the decision stressed its impact on ending what they see as a bias against women in the current health care system.

Among them was Lisa Kitinoja of Eugene, Ore., who administers a nonprofit organization:

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Many opponents complained that the act would make health care more expensive, including Darren Perkins of Kansas City, Mo.:

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Others saw it as unconstitutionally giving the federal government too much control over people's lives, like Andrew Hastings, an engineer in San Diego:

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The 60 percent-to-40 percent split among social media users in favor of the ruling runs counter to public opinion surveys, which generally indicate that a slight majority opposes the health care act. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday put support at 48 percent.

The social media results, however, could be a reflection of rising support since the Supreme Court ruling. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, for example, found that before Thursday, support was only 43 percent before rising to 48 percent. (Support in msnbc.com's analysis also showed support trending up since the ruling, hitting 62 percent Monday.)

They also may be explained by the demographics of the social media audience. The Pew Internet & American Life Project, which uses ForSight in its statistical analysis of social media, reported in March that people who identify themselves as liberal are more likely to use social networking sites than are people who self identify as conservatives.

Even so, commenters concluded that Republicans would benefit from the ruling politically more than Democrats, by 56 percent to 44 percent.

Mike Wasylik, a lawyer in Tampa, Fla., wrote:

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Chris Twining, a computer consultant in Wildomar, Calif., explained on Facebook:

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And Michael Gorka of Newport News, Va., said:

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Real-world evidence may support that analysis — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign reported that Friday was its biggest fundraising day from individual donors so far.

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Crimson Hexagon Inc.

While general online sentiment strongly favored President Barack Obama's statement, judgments of its political impact were much more closely divided.

Online reaction to President Barack Obama's endorsement of same-sex marriage is running 3-to-1 in his favor, but commenters are sharply divided over whether it will help him or hurt him in November, according to a computer-assisted analysis of hundreds of thousands of social media posts in the first 24 hours after the announcement.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The analysis examined 532,000 posts on Twitter and Facebook, about 300,000 of which expressed a clear opinion about Obama's statement. Of those, 72 percent approved of the announcement.

(The analysis — which ran from 3 p.m. ET Wednesday, when ABC News broadcast its interview with Obama, through 3 p.m. ET Thursday — used a tool called ForSight, a natural-language data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc. For this type of sentiment analysis, Crimson Hexagon reports a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points among the self-selected social media audience. Click here for a detailed explanation.)

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

While Obama won widespread praise online, a significant proportion of it was grudging.

Many supporters of same-sex marriage criticized the president for not having announced his position until now, 3½ years into his presidency. Fully a third of those agreeing with the decision did so while asking, in essence, "What took you so long?" 

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A further 18 percent of those agreeing with the announcement complained that the president hadn't gone far enough, with some noting that he stopped short of taking any concrete action, such as proposing legislation or issuing an executive order to have federal agencies recognize same-sex marriages.

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By contrast, opponents of Obama's announcement strongly indicated that they believed it was a politically cynical move.
Nearly half of those opposing the move — 47 percent — expressed sentiments like these:

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Interestingly, about a fifth of the sample — well more than 100,000 people — chose to analyze the announcement not so much on its merits but on whom it would benefit in the general election. And by 52 percent to 48 percent, a slim majority of those thought it would likely help Obama and other Democrats.

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The social media analysis is also notable for its variance from public opinion at large. Recent polls generally indicate that only about half of Americans believe same-sex marriages should be legal; the most recent Gallup Poll, taken May 3-6, for example, showed a 50 percent to 48 percent split.

Following Obama's support of gay marriage, a flood of emotions

A possible explanation lies in the makeup of the social media audience. 

The Pew Internet & American Life Project, which uses ForSight in its statistical analysis of social media, reported in March that people who identify themselves as liberal are more likely to use social networking sites than are people who identify as conservatives.

Watch US News videos on msnbc.com

Moreover, marketing surveys indicate that people who identify themselves as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgendered are more frequent users of social media than the population as a whole.

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Crimson Hexagon Inc.

About 20 percent of initial online reaction expressed a clear opinion about Rick Santorum's decision to suspend his campaign, with most of it approving.

Click for larger image

Early reaction among supporters and opponents alike approved of Rick Santorum's withdrawal from the Republican presidential race Tuesday, according to msnbc.com's computer-assisted analysis of online reaction.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania whose strong showing among conservatives in primaries and caucuses surprised many observers, suspended his campaign Tuesday amid concerns for the health of his daughter Bella, who was hospitalized for complications from the chromosomal disorder Trisomy 18.

Santorum suspends presidential campaign

Reaction was swift on social media and political forums. Most of the online discussion simply passed along the news or tried to dispassionately assess the effect on the campaign, according to msnbc.com's analysis of more than 14,500 posts on Twitter, Facebook and forums Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Among those commenters, the consensus was that Santorum's decision cleared the way for the nomination of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as summarized by James Kust, a sportswriter in Eau Claire, Wis.:

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But about 20 percent did express clear opinions about Santorum's decision, with those welcoming the news outpacing those expressing disappointment by a 9-to-1 ratio through early Tuesday evening. While many people applauded Santorum for putting his family first, others rejoiced that he was leaving the race.

(The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a natural-language data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations, including the Pew Research Center and ESPN, to gauge public opinion in new media.)

For supporters of Santorum, who ran a strongly conservative campaign opposing same-sex marriage and abortion, the announcement reinforced what attracted them to him in the first place.

One of those was Kelly Clinger of Atlanta, a spokeswoman for the anti-abortion-rights group Silent No More Awareness Campaign:

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Others who may not have supported Santorum still sent him good wishes for his daughter, like Eric Johnson, a student at Kennesaw State University in Georgia:

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But as you would expect for a candidate whose clear-cut positions drew sharp divisions among voters, much of the reaction was political, and most of that was anti-Santorum, including this tweet from Davis Allen, a student at Arizona State University:

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On the political discussion group PeoplesPoliticsIII, a frequent commenter using the name Noserose criticized Santorum for his public expressions of faith:

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A similar sentiment came from Waymon Hudson, a freelance writer from Chicago, who said on Facebook:

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And for some, Santorum's withdrawal makes the campaign "much less amusing now," as Wes Platt, an online game writer and designer from Durham, N.C., tweeted.

That reaction was summarized by Elliott Lerner, a student at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C., who moonlights occasionally as a standup comic:

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