In another finding from the new NBC News/Marist poll, 55 percent of Virginia residents say they want stricter laws governing the sale of firearms, versus 36 percent who want them left the same.

Reflecting Virginia's status as a key national swing state -- President Obama twice won it by the same margin he won the national popular vote -- those numbers are virtually identical to the national ones from the April NBC/WSJ poll.

But there are fascinating political, demographic and geographic differences inside these numbers.

Eighty-two percent of Democrats in Virginia want stricter gun laws, compared with 56 percent of independents and just 29 percent of Republicans.

What's more, only 30 percent of gun owners and 38 percent of those living in households with guns favor stricter gun laws, suggesting a deep divide on this issue between gun owners and non-gun owners.

But that's not the only split: 68 percent of women in the state want stricter gun laws, versus just 41 percent of men who do.

And there's geography. A whopping 70 percent of those living in the Northern Virginian suburbs just outside of Washington, D.C., support stricter gun laws. That's compared with the Northern Virginian exurbs (49 percent), the central and western part of the state (49 percent), the Richmond area (49 percent), and the Tidewater region (59 percent).

The NBC/Marist poll was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,218 adults in Virginia, and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.8 percentage points.

Strong majorities of Americans say they favor stricter gun laws, including an assault-weapons ban and universal background checks for private gun sales, according to a new national Morning Joe/Marist poll.

Read the entire poll here

Six in 10 respondents – including 83 percent of Democrats, 43 percent of gun owners and 37 percent of Republicans – believe that the laws covering gun sales should be stricter.

This figure is virtually unchanged from the 61 percent who backed stricter gun laws when a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll asked the same question in February, even though at least one other national survey has found waning support for gun-control laws months after the Dec. 2012 shootings in Newtown, Conn.

Jessica Hill / AP

John Woodall. left, of Newtown, Conn., carries a sign that he says indicates the percentage of Americans who support universal background checks, speaks with Gordon Jones of Southbury, Conn., a supporter of gun rights during a rally outside the National Shooting Sports Foundation headquarters in Newtown on March 28.

What’s more, the Morning Joe/Marist poll finds that 87 percent of Americans support background checks for private gun sales and sales at gun shows, and 59 percent favor legislation that would ban the sale of assault weapons.

Later this month, the U.S. Senate is set to consider Democratic-backed gun legislation that, among other provisions, contains a requirement for universal background checks. With Republican senators threatening to filibuster the legislation, its prospects for passage remain uncertain.

Democrats also are expected to offer an assault-weapons ban as an amendment to the legislation, but it has almost no chance to win passage in the Senate.

Favoring job creation over deficit reduction
Turning to the economy and the deficit, the Morning Joe/Marist survey shows that Americans – by nearly a 2-to-1 margin – want President Barack Obama and Congress to make job creation their top priority (64 percent) instead of deficit reduction (33 percent).

Those who prefer Washington’s political leaders to emphasize job creation include 76 percent of Democrats and 46 percent of Republicans; a narrow majority of Republican respondents (51 percent) want the focus to be on deficit reduction.

Also, Obama edges congressional Republicans by four percentage points, 44 percent to 40 percent, on the question of who has a better approach to deal with the federal budget deficit.

But the president’s approach to deficit reduction – calling for a combination of spending cuts and increased tax revenues – is more popular than the Republicans’ cuts-only approach.

Forty-two percent of respondents prefer a mixture of spending cuts (including to entitlement programs) and revenue increases; 35 percent pick increasing mostly revenue; and just 17 percent choose mostly cutting government spending (including to programs like Medicare and Medicaid).

The Morning Joe/Marist poll was conducted March 25-March 27 of 1,219 national respondents by both landline phone and cellphone. It has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.8 percentage points. 

It's not just Democrats and liberals who are the reason for the shift on gay marriage. 

Beneath the broad support from liberal-leaning demographic groups, is the fact that some of the biggest shifts in favor of gay marriage since 2004 have been from some more unlikely, conservative-leaning blocs -- blue-collar workers, older voters, and Southerners, according to NBC News/Wall Street Journal polls over the last decade.

And, even though Democrats are markedly more in favor of gay marriage than independents or Republicans, the vast majority of whom remain against it, all three have moved at almost exactly the same rate.

Blue-collar workers’ views on gay marriage have actually shifted more than any other group since 2004. Eight months before George W. Bush was re-elected, just 18 percent said they were in favor of same-sex marriage, and 80 percent were opposed.

Eight years later, a plurality was in favor. In the December 2012 NBC/WSJ poll, 47 percent said so versus 43 percent who remained opposed.

While that 47/43 split shows blue-collar workers are far less supportive of gay marriage than Democrats (69/22), highly educated (66/28), young (65/29), or urban voters (63/31), it does represent a net change of 66 points – more than any other demographic subgroup since 2004.

Older voters, those 65 and older, remain among the most opposed to same-sex marriage (32/54), but that is actually a 43-point shift more in favor than in 2004, when four-in-five older voters were opposed (16/80).

A majority of voters in the culturally conservative South remain opposed to gay marriage (42/50). But that is far less opposition than in 2004 when, similar to older voters, just 20 percent of Southerners said they favored same-sex marriage, and 71 percent said they were against. That represents a net change of 43 points more in favor.

Among the political parties, Democrats have increased their support by 39 points, Republicans by 37 points, and independents 36 points. In 2004, almost a majority of Democrats were already in favor of same-sex marriage (49/41) and now stand out for their whopping support (69/22).

Independents narrowly favor gay marriage (46/43), moving from two-thirds opposed (30/63). And while nearly two-thirds of Republicans are still opposed (27/63), they were even more solidly opposed (11/84) in 2004.

Young voters, between ages 18-34, represented the second-largest shift since 2004 – 60 points, going from a solid majority opposing -- 56 percent -- to nearly two-thirds in favor. Northeasterners were the third-largest shift – 48 points, going from a majority opposed to three-in-five in favor. Westerners and white-collar workers moved by 47 points, also going from majorities opposed to majorities in favor.

Women also moved more rapidly than men, going from nearly two-thirds opposed to 57 percent in favor. Men went from two-thirds opposed to a 44 favor-46 opposed split.

The only groups who have decreased their support over the past decade have been rural voters, those age 50-64, and Hispanics – despite their overwhelming and historic support for President Barack Obama in 2012. Hispanics, who are largely Catholic, tend to be economically liberal, but socially conservative. (Unfortunately, the NBC/WSJ sample on that question in 2004 was a “split sample,” so the groupings of African Americans and Hispanics were too small to be statistically significant. Therefore, this decrease among Hispanics is from 2009.)

There has also been a big difference in support from the parties since Obama took office. Since 2009, Democratic support has gone up 27 points, independents 16, and Republicans just 12.

A major reason for the continued significant shift among Democrats is because of black voters. African Americans increased their support since Obama’s been president by 35 points.

The biggest shifts since 2009 have come from people who live in cities (+40), blue-collar workers (+36), African Americans (+35), age groups 35-49 (+35) and 18-34 (+32), Democrats (+27), people who live in the suburbs (+27), those who live in the Northeast (+25), and women (+25).

In addition to the graphic at the top right, here are some more numbers:

Since 2009:
Urban +40
Blue collar +36
Black +35
35-49 +35
18-34 +32
Democrats +27
Suburban  +27
Northeast +25
Women +25
Overall +20
South +20
White +19
West  +18
Independents +16
Midwest +15
White collar +14
Men +14
Republicans +12
65 and older +10
Hispanic -4
50-64 -5
Rural -9 

Other 2012 groups of note (which subgroups weren’t broken out in 2009 and 2004):
White working class 48/43    
Suburban women 55/36    
HS or less 40/50    
Some coll 50/42    
Coll grad  54/35    
Post grad 66/28    

Other interesting breakdowns from 2004:
17 Bush advertising states 30/64
12 swing states 31/62
Those who said definitely re-elect Bush 8/87
Those who said definitely defeat Bush 55/37

With the automatic across-the-board spending cuts set to begin on Friday, Americans are split over whether President Barack Obama is emphasizing unifying the country or taking a partisan approach, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But by nearly a 3-to-1 margin, respondents conclude that the Republican Party is emphasizing partisanship more than unity.

In the poll, 48 percent say Obama is pursuing a path to unify the country in a bipartisan way, while 43 percent say he's taking a partisan approach that doesn't unify the country.

Recommended: Boehner blasts Senate Democrats for inaction

By comparison, 64 percent say the Republican Party is taking a partisan approach, versus 22 percent who say it's focused on unity.

As for the Democratic Party, a plurality of respondents -- by a 49 percent to 37 percent margin -- think it is emphasizing partisanship more than unity.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted Feb. 21-24 of 1,000 adults, and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- comes out beginning at 6:30 pm ET.

As President Barack Obama is set to begin his second term next week, he finds himself with a job-approval rating above 50 percent and with majorities supporting his general direction on gun control and immigration, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

But he also confronts an American public holding mixed attitudes about the next four years, concerns about the economy and a belief that tougher times lie ahead.

Click here for the full poll (.pdf)

It’s a stark reversal from four years ago, when Obama’s first inauguration – despite taking place in the midst of the Great Recession – contained high expectations and seemed more like a “coronation,” says Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff.

“If 2009 was all about hope, 2013 is about the ability to cope,” Hart adds of the public’s lower expectations about the economy and reducing partisanship in Washington.

General support for Obama’s gun, immigration agenda
In the poll, 52 percent of adults approve of the president’s overall job performance, which is down one point from last month. In addition, 49 percent approve of his handling of the economy, versus 48 percent who disapprove.

What’s more, the public appears to be receptive to the broad outlines of his top agenda items for a second team.

Mandel Ngan / AFP - Getty Images file

President Barack Obama speaks on proposals to reduce gun violence on Jan. 16, 2013 in the South Court Auditorium of the Eisenhower Executive Office Building, next to the White House in Washington.

Fifty-six percent believe that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be stricter, compared with a combined 42 percent who want them less strict or kept the same.

That’s the most support on this particular question since 2006, but it’s less than the 60 percent to 70 percent who supported stricter gun laws during the 1990s, including when Congress passed an assault-weapons ban in 1994.

Related: NRA more popular than entertainment industry, poll says

Also, for the first time in the poll, a majority of Americans -- 52 percent -- favor allowing illegal immigrants who hold jobs to apply for legal status in this country.

And in the latest fiscal fight in Washington, more respondents say they would blame congressional Republicans (45 percent) than Obama and congressional Democrats (33 percent) if the nation’s debt limit isn’t raised and the country is unable to meet its obligations.

As for views on Obama’s qualities as president, he gets the best marks for being easygoing and likeable (61 percent give him high marks here), having the ability to handle a crisis (55 percent), being compassionate (53 percent), being knowledgeable and experienced (53 percent) and being a good commander in chief (51 percent).

His lowest marks come on achieving his goals (44 percent give him high marks here), working effectively with Congress (29 percent) and changing business as usual in Washington (28 percent).

'A lack of buoyancy'
Yet looking ahead to Obama’s next four years in office, Americans have tempered their expectations.

The public is split how Obama will fare in a second term, with a majority of respondents -- 51 percent -- saying they’re either “optimistic” or “satisfied.”

By comparison, a combined 48 percent say they are “uncertain” or “pessimistic.”

Asked another way, 43 percent are optimistic about the next four years, while 35 percent are pessimistic; 22 percent have a mixed opinion.

In addition, more than seven in 10 are dissatisfied with the current state of the economy, and just more than a third are either “very” or “fairly” confident in Obama’s ability to promote a strong and growing economy.

And 60 percent believe the coming year will be a time to hold back and save because of harder times ahead, versus 34 percent who instead think it will be a time of economic expansion and opportunity.

“The poll reveals a lack of buoyancy in looking ahead,” Hart, the Democratic pollster, says.

Adds GOP pollster McInturff: “This feels like a long four years, and it feels like a long four years ahead.”

Public continues to sour on Congress, GOP
But if Americans have tempered the expectations for Obama’s second term, they have soured even more on Congress and the Republican Party.

Just 14 percent of adults approve of Congress’ job (which is near the all-time low in the poll), while 81 percent disapprove (which is close to its all-time high).

What’s more, 49 percent hold a negative view of the Republican Party – its highest negative rating in the survey since 2008. Only 26 percent have a positive view.

By comparison, the Democratic Party has a net positive rating, with 44 percent holding a favorable view of the party and 38 percent holding an unfavorable one.

And the conservative Tea Party movement – which took off in Obama’s first year as president – also finds its popularity at an all-time low in the poll, with 23 percent viewing it favorably and 47 percent unfavorably.

On Iraq and Afghanistan
Soon approaching the 10-year anniversary of the Iraq war, nearly six-in-10 say the war wasn't worth it, versus 35 percent who say it was.

Yet asked another way, 55 percent of respondents think the war was successful.

Meanwhile, a narrow majority of Americans – 51 percent – say the war in Afghanistan hasn’t been worth it, though 62 percent believe the war there has been successful

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Jan. 12-15 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has an overall margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points.

As Washington prepares for a political battle over the Obama White House's proposals to curb gun violence after the Newtown, Conn., shootings, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that the National Rifle Association is more popular than the entertainment industry.

Forty-one percent of adults see the NRA -- the nation's top gun lobby -- in a positive light, while 34 percent view it in a negative light.

By comparison, just 24 percent have positive feelings about the entertainment industry, and 39 percent have negative ones.

The NRA's fav/unfav score is virtually unchanged from its 41 percent-to-29 percent rating in the Jan. 2011 NBC/WSJ poll, nearly two years before the Newtown shootings.

"That seems to me to be a pretty remarkably stable figure," says GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.

But it's a substantial improvement from the 1990s, when the NRA's negative ratings outweighed its positive ones in the NBC/WSJ survey.

The current poll also shows a sharp divide between attitudes among gun owners and non-gun owners.

Among those who own a gun, 62 percent view the NRA favorably. But that percentage drops to just 25 percent among those who don't.

The full poll -- which was conducted Jan. 12-15 of 1,000 adults (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 pm ET.

Less than a week before Election Day, President Barack Obama holds a statistically significant lead over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the battleground of Iowa, while the two candidates are locked in tight races in New Hampshire and Wisconsin, according to new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

In Iowa, Obama is ahead by six points among likely voters, 50 percent to 44 percent, which is down from his eight-point lead earlier this month.

In Wisconsin, the president edges Romney by three points, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. That’s also down from Obama’s six-point lead earlier this month.

Read the Wisconsin poll here (.pdf)

And in New Hampshire, Obama gets support from 49 percent of likely voters, while Romney gets 47 percent. In September, before the debates began, Obama held a seven-point advantage in the state, 51 percent to 44 percent.

“To be at 49 or 50 [percent] is a good number this close to Election Day,” Lee Miringoff, the director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, says of the president.

“But he doesn’t have to look far over his shoulder to see that half of the electorate isn’t with him and Romney is close.”

Yet Miringoff adds, “It is always better to be ahead than behind.”

Gender gap, early voting helping Obama
The surveys were conducted Oct. 28-29 – almost all of the interviews were conducted before Hurricane Sandy hit the East Coast, including New Hampshire – and they show a gender gap that’s benefitting Obama.

In all three states, he enjoys a double-digit lead among women (by 16 points in Iowa and New Hampshire, and by 14 points in Wisconsin).

Read the New Hampshire poll here (.pdf)

Meanwhile, Romney leads among men (by four points in Iowa, eight in Wisconsin, and 11 points in New Hampshire).

What’s also helping Obama is early voting.

In Iowa, according to the poll, 45 percent of respondents say they have already voted early or plan to do so, and Obama is winning those voters by nearly 30 points, 62 percent to 35 percent.

But Romney is winning Iowa voters who plan to vote on Election Day by 20 points, 55 percent to 35 percent.

(Iowa’s Secretary of State’s office says that nearly 532,000 early and absentee votes have been received as of Oct. 30, and that’s about 35 percent of the 2008 electorate in the state. But it also says that a total of 660,000 absentee ballots have been requested, and that’s 43 percent of Iowa’s 2008 electorate.)

In Wisconsin, 25 percent say they have already voted or will do so before Election Day, and those voters are breaking to Obama by a 59 percent to 39 percent clip.

Read the Iowa poll here (.pdf)

And in New Hampshire, just 10 percent say they will be voting early, and Obama wins that small segment, 56 percent to 42 percent. Among Election Day voters in the state, 48 percent back Romney and 47 percent support Obama.

Higher favorable ratings benefitting Romney
However, what has helped Romney close the gap in these three states has been his rising favorable ratings since September.

The former Massachusetts governor’s favorable/unfavorable rating among likely voters in New Hampshire is 49 percent/46 percent – which is up from 43 percent/52 percent a month ago.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

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In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

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His score in Wisconsin is 47 percent/47 percent, which is improved from 43 percent/46 percent in September.

But in Iowa, Romney’s favorable/unfavorable rating remains upside down at 43 percent/49 percent.

Also, Romney leads Obama by three points in New Hampshire on which candidate would do a better job handling the economy (49 percent to 46 percent). But the two men are tied on this question in Iowa (at 45 percent each) and in Wisconsin (47 percent apiece).

Other findings

•       Obama’s job-approval rating among likely voters is at 49 percent in Wisconsin and 48 percent in New Hampshire and Iowa.

•       In Wisconsin’s competitive Senate contest, Democrat Tammy Baldwin gets the support of 48 percent of likely voters and Republican Tommy Thompson gets 47 percent.

•       And in New Hampshire’s race for governor, Democrat Maggie Hassan leads Republican Ovide Lamontagne by five points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

The NBC/WSJ/Marist polls were conducted Oct. 28-29 of 1,142 likely voters in Iowa (which has a margin of error of plus-minus 2.9 percentage points), 1,013 likely voters in New Hampshire (plus-minus 3.1 percentage points) and 1,065 likely voters in Wisconsin (plus-minus 3.0 percentage points).

The race between President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney is locked in a dead heat in Colorado, while the president maintains a narrow edge in the other Western swing state of Nevada.

Read the full Nevada poll here (.pdf)

Obama and Romney are tied at 48 percent among likely voters in Colorado, according to the new NBC News-Wall Street Journal-Marist polls conducted this week, entirely after the third and final presidential debate. Among the broader sample of registered voters, Obama holds a 48 to 47 percent lead over Romney.

Read the full Colorado poll here (.pdf)

Justin Sullivan / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks during a campaign rally at Worthington Industries on Oct. 25, 2012 in Cincinnati, Ohio.

The race for the Centennial State has tightened since mid-September – right after the Democratic convention and before the debates – when Obama led 50 percent to 45 percent.

But the president's lead has held in another important battleground state, Nevada.

Obama leads Romney, 50 to 47 percent, among likely voters in Nevada. That result is within the margin of error, but also mirrors the late September Nevada NBC/WSJ/Marist poll, when Obama was up 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters.

Among the broader sample of registered voters, Obama's lead in Nevada expands to 51 percent to 45 percent. 

“I think we’re at a different point than we were in mid-September,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted the polls. “Romney’s had a better October than any of the other months in the campaign. We do see a change in his favorability. He’s no longer upside down. That’s leveled off. He’s doing better with independent voters, closed the gender gap, and doing better with women. What that means for a place like Colorado -- it is extremely close right now, but it is clearly a state that could go either way.” 

Romney makes gains in Colorado

In Colorado, Obama is not hitting his mark with white voters, and is now losing suburban Denver voters as well as independents to Romney, who has also closed the gender gap versus the president. Enthusiasm among young voters has also fallen off for the president.

Men and women alike in Denver's suburbs have shifted toward Romney; a month ago, Obama led by 18 points among Denver suburban women, an advantage that closed to 3 percent in the most recent poll. Romney has expanded his lead among Denver's suburban men from 6 points last month to 13 points in this week's poll. 

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama greets supporters on the tarmac upon his arrival on Air Force One at O'Hare International Airport in Chicago, Thursday, Oct. 25, 2012.

A month ago, Obama led with independents 50 to 39 percent, an advantage which has shrunk to a virtual draw, 46 to 45 percent. Among women, the president led in September by a whopping 14 points, 54 to 40 percent, a lead that has been halved to 7 percent (52 to 45 percent). 

Obama has been able to stay even with Romney by maintaining big margins in Colorado's more liberal bastions and with strong support from Latinos, who say they support the president 63 to 34 percent. They make up a larger percentage of the electorate than 2008 and are breaking for Obama by a wider margin.

Latinos fuel Obama’s Nevada edge

Nevada is slightly friendlier turf for the president; Obama won Colorado by 9 percent in 2008, and won Nevada by 12 points. 

Fueling Obama's lead in the Silver State is an even larger margin over Romney among Latinos and robust early voting for the president. Romney, in turn, is aided by stronger enthusiasm by Republicans, who are helping keep the GOP nominee in the race. 

Hispanics, who make up 16 percent of respondents, broke for the president, 74 to 23 percent, versus Romney.

Seventy-one percent say they have either already voted or plan to vote early. Obama leads with those who say they have already voted (53 to 45 percent) and by a wider margin with those who have not yet decided if they will vote early or on Election Day (53 to 38 percent). 

How crucial is the Latino vote in these two states to Obama?

“In a close race, every group makes a difference,” Miringoff said, but this group really makes a difference. It’s keeping him in the contest in these states.” 

The polls were conducted Oct. 23 to 24. The Nevada poll has a margin of error of +/- 3 percent among likely voters. The Colorado poll has a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

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In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

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Hispanic voters continue to say they prefer President Obama by wide margins over Republican nominee Mitt Romney amid signs that the race is tightening among the broader electorate, according to new data in a NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Telemundo poll.

Recommended: First Thoughts: Presidential race couldn't be tighter - how each one wins

Obama leads Romney 70 percent to 25 percent among likely Latino voters (and 69 percent to 23 percent among registered voters), a slight uptick for Romney from the 70 percent to 25 percent lead the president held a month ago.

Read the full poll results here

But Latino enthusiasm has ticked up since last month, up from its lows earlier this cycle but still not yet on par with Latino enthusiasm for Obama in 2008.

More Hispanics than last month said they are either a 9 or 10 (on a scale of 1 to 10, 1 being the lowest) on a measure of their enthusiasm for this election. Sixty-eight percent of likely Latino voters rated their enthusiasm at that level, up from 59 percent last month. But that is off from the 76 percent who said they were in that highest-interest group at this time four years ago. And it is below the 76 percent who are 9s and 10s in the wider NBC/WSJ poll.

The debates appear to have had little impact with Latinos in the poll, which was conducted entirely after the second presidential debate. Just 14 percent said they are now more likely to vote for Romney while 48 percent said it made them more likely to vote for Obama, and 35 percent said it made no difference.

A total of 13 percent of Latinos said they have already voted – either in person or by mail. Another 10 percent said they plan to vote before Election Day.

Related: In foreign policy, both Obama and Romney face fiscal realities

There were some drops for the president, however. His approval rating is still very strong at 66 percent, but it’s down from the sky-high 73 percent he enjoyed last month. On the economy, Obama’s approval declined slightly from 68 percent to 63 percent. And even his favorability saw a small decline from 74 percent positive last month to 69 percent this month.
 
The problem for Romney, however, continues to involve a severe image problem with Hispanics. A solid majority – 57 percent – of Hispanic voters said they had a negative view of the former Massachusetts governor, while just a quarter – 26 percent – had a positive impression of Romney.

In fact, almost half – 45 percent – had a “very negative” impression of Romney, up from 35 percent last month.

The NBC/WSJ poll, including the Hispanic oversample, was conducted from Oct. 17 to Oct. 20 and has a margin of error of +/- 6.8 percent among likely voters and +/- 5.7 percent among registered voters.

EDITOR'S NOTE: An earlier version of this post incorrectly stated Obama's economic approval as declining from 66 percent to 61 percent. It was actually a decline from 68 percent to 63 percent.

A week after President Barack Obama’s lackluster debate performance, Republican challenger Mitt Romney has made some gains in three key swing states among those most likely to vote, according to the latest round of NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls.

Romney and Obama remain in a virtual tie in Virginia and Florida, and the Democratic incumbent maintains a slight advantage in Ohio.

Romney saw his largest gain in Virginia, where he now edges the president 48 percent to 47 percent, a 3-point reversal from last week’s poll, released the day of the first presidential debate. The spread is within the poll’s margin of error.

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Fl. Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Ohio Poll

NBC News/WSJ/Marist Va. Poll

In Florida, before the debate, it was a 1-point race with Obama leading 47 percent to 46 percent. Now, it is still a 1-point race with Obama leading 48 percent to 47 percent.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

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In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

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In Ohio, where there has been a renewed focus by the Romney campaign after the former Massachusetts governor’s strong debate performance, Obama leads 51 percent to 45 percent. That’s a 2-point uptick for Romney.

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats --- 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats.  . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

One factor that may have pulled the party ID more heavily toward Democrats in this poll was early voting. One-in-five respondents (18 percent) said they have already voted, and, of those, almost two-thirds (63 percent) said they voted for Obama.

The ideological makeup in this poll was 22 percent liberal, 32 percent moderate, 46 percent conservative, which is actually less moderate and more conservative than four years ago when it was 20 percent liberal, 45 percent moderate, and just 35 percent conservative, according to the exit poll.

When early voters are taken out of the equation, Obama’s lead shrinks to 48 percent vs. Romney's 46 percent.

"Perhaps the poll is picking up the Obama absentee push,” said Barbara Carvalho, director of the Marist poll.

“By way of methodology, last week there was no question about absentee voting in the Ohio survey. It had not yet started. … Those who said they voted absentee in the past week, since absentee voting started in Ohio, are overwhelmingly Democratic and they voted for the president by a wide margin. This can account for a difference in party identification among likely voters because last week they would have been ‘likely voters’ and this week because absentee voting had started, they are ‘definite voters.’”

There are signs that Romney’s debate performance had an impact with the narrow slice of persuadable voters.

In all three states, the overwhelming majority of voters said they made up their minds before the debate -- 92 percent in Florida and Ohio, and 91 percent in Virginia. Just 7 percent in Virginia, 6 percent in Florida, and 5 percent in Ohio said they decided after the debate. But in all three states, Romney won them.

“The debate helped Romney but most voters had already picked sides,” Carvalho added.

Slideshow: Twin sons of different parties

From tramping through cornfields to munching ice cream cones to holding babies – the time-honored traditions of the campaign trail leave President Barack Obama and GOP challenger Mitt Romney looking surprisingly alike.

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Romney also made significant gains with independents in Virginia and Ohio. In Virginia, Romney jumped 7 points with the group -- from a 45 percent to 44 percent statistical tie to a 50 percent to 42 percent lead.

In Ohio, he got an even wider 12-point boost. He was down 47 percent to 43 percent with them. But now, Romney is up 49 percent to 41 percent. In Florida, there was little change.

Romney also improved his image post-debate in all three states, but he’s still viewed more negatively than positively in Ohio.

Romney’s favorable score has jumped to 49 percent in Florida and Virginia, up from 46 percent in Florida and 45 percent in Virginia. In fact, before the debate in Virginia, Romney was viewed more negatively than positively. Now, that’s reversed.

Neither score is as good as the president’s, who continues to enjoy favorable ratings above 50 percent in all three states.

Obama’s approval rating also held steady -- 48 percent in both Florida and Virginia and 47 percent in Ohio.

Obama continues to be bolstered by women. There’s a 13-point gender gap in Florida, and 12-point gaps in Ohio and Virginia.

In the key Senate races, Democrats lead, but the race in Virginia has narrowed back to a tie.

Many observers believe as goes the presidential race in Virginia, so goes the competitive Senate race. And that very well may be the case, as Democrat Tim Kaine and Republican George Allen are once again deadlocked.

Kaine holds the narrowest of advantages, 47 percent to 46 percent. Last week, Kaine led by 5 points, 49 percent to 44 percent.

In Florida, incumbent Democratic Sen. Bill Nelson continues to hold a sizable lead over Republican Rep. Connie Mack, 52 percent to 39 percent, about where it was last week.

In Ohio, incumbent Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown continues to hold a significant advantage, 52 percent to 41 percent, over Republican challenger Josh Mandel. Last week, Brown led 50 percent to 41 percent.

The polls were conducted from Oct. 7-9 and have a margin of error with likely voters of +/- 3.1 percent.

Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama walks during his visit to the Hoover Dam, Tuesday, Oct. 2, 2012 in Boulder City, Nev.

On the eve of the first presidential debate, President Barack Obama maintains his national lead over Mitt Romney, but the Republican nominee is well within striking distance, according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Obama edges Romney by three points among likely voters, 49 percent to 46 percent, which is within the survey’s margin of error. Obama’s lead was five points, 50 percent to 45 percent, in the NBC/WSJ poll released two weeks ago, following the political conventions.

But among a wider pool of registered voters, the president is ahead of Romney by seven points, 51 percent to 44 percent.

Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart, who conducted this survey with Republican pollster Bill McInturff, argues that the poll results contain good news for both candidates.

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For Obama, he’s ahead at a time of growing optimism about the economy and nation’s direction. For Romney, it’s a “margin of error” contest that comes as interest in the upcoming election lags among key Democratic constituencies versus four years ago.

But Hart adds, “Barack Obama has the better hand.”

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

Indeed, the poll also shows the toll the past month has taken on Romney, with a majority of registered voters saying that the events of the last couple of weeks had given them a less favorable impression of the Republican challenger.

What’s more, by a 2-to-1 margin, these voters have a negative reaction to Romney’s comment – caught on tape from a fundraiser back in May – that “47 percent” of Americans are dependent on government and believe they are victims.

Why the race is closer among likely voters
Among the full universe of registered voters in the poll, Obama leads Romney with African Americans (95 percent to 3 percent), Latinos (winning seven in 10), women (56 percent to 40 percent), and independents (48 percent to 35 percent).

Jewel Samad / AFP - Getty Images

Mitt Romney embraces a woman, outside Chipotle restaurant in Denver on Oct. 2, 2012.

Romney, meanwhile, has the advantage with whites (54 percent to 41 percent), seniors (52 percent to 43 percent), suburban residents (51 percent to 45 percent), and men (48 percent to 45 percent).

But among voters expressing the highest interest in the election, Obama and Romney are essentially tied (49 percent to 48 percent).

And two key pillars of Obama’s political coalition – Latinos and young voters – are much less interested in the election than they were in 2008.

“That helps to explain why it’s close among likely voters,” Hart says.

Likely voters are defined in the survey as those expressing the highest interest in the upcoming presidential contest (either a “9” or “10” on a 10-point scale), and those who have participated in recent or past elections.

Economic optimism rising
While the race is closer among likely voters, the poll has this good news for Obama: optimism about the economy continues to increase.

Forty-four percent believe that the economy will improve in the next 12 months. That’s up from two points in the last NBC/WSJ survey, eight points since August and a whopping 17 points since July.

What’s more, 57 percent think that the U.S. economy is recovering, versus 39 percent who disagree with that notion.

And four in 10 now say the country is headed in the right direction, which is the highest percentage on this question since June 2009.

“We have a different feeling about the economy than we did this summer,” says McInturff, the Republican pollster.

McInturff explains that much of this increased economic optimism is coming from Democrats, whose attitudes are matching their ballot preference. But he adds that it’s also coming from political independents and even some Republicans.

Obama vs. Romney on the issues
Given the increased economic optimism, Obama and Romney are nearly tied on which candidate would better handle the economy, with 45 percent picking Romney and 42 percent choosing Obama.

Read the entire poll here (.pdf)

But Obama leads Romney on almost all other issues and character traits – looking out for the middle class (53 percent to 34 percent), handing the situation in the Middle East (48 percent to 32 percent), handling immigration (45 percent to 31 percent), dealing with Medicare (48 percent to 36 percent), being a good commander in chief (47 percent to 39 percent), handling foreign policy (46 percent to 40 percent), and dealing with taxes (46 percent to 41 percent).

Romney, meanwhile, holds the edge on dealing with the federal budget deficit (43 percent to 34 percent) and dealing with the economic challenges that the U.S. faces from China (45 percent to 37 percent).

And the two are tied on who is better equipped to change “business as usual” in Washington (36 percent to 36 percent).

While Obama enjoys an advantage over Romney when it comes to foreign policy, just 45 percent approve of the way he has handled the recent unrest in Egypt, Libya, and other Arab countries.

The president’s overall job-approval rating stands at 49 percent, while 46 approve of his handling of the economy.

‘47 percent’ takes a toll on Romney
The poll – which was conducted Sept. 26-30 – comes after intense scrutiny and TV-ad attacks on Romney’s “47 percent” comment, in which he said that percentage of Americans don’t pay income taxes, are dependent on government, and believe that they are victims.

After hearing a full description of that comment, 45 percent of registered voters said it gave them a more negative impression of the GOP presidential nominee, versus 23 percent who had a more positive view.

More: Almost 40 percent say upcoming debates will be important

By contrast, when the same respondents were read a full description of Obama’s “You didn’t build that” line – comments Republicans seized on to portray the president as anti-business – 36 percent had a positive reaction and 32 percent had a negative reaction.

In addition, 51 percent say that what they've heard, seen, and read about Romney in the past couple of weeks gives them a less favorable impression of the former Massachusetts governor, compared with just 36 percent who say the same of Obama.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

Overall in the survey, 44 percent say they have a negative view of Romney, while 41 have a positive view.

That 41-44 favorable/unfavorable rating is lower than Obama’s own 52-42 rating. And it’s lower than every other presidential nominee’s score at this similar point of time in the history of the poll – except for George H.W. Bush’s 34-52 rating in October 1992.

Will the debates change things?
Looking ahead to the presidential debates, nearly four-in-10 registered voters say that the upcoming debates will be either "extremely" or "quite" important in helping determine their vote in the presidential race.

Still, more than 60 percent say that the debates are either "just somewhat important" or "not at all important" to their votes.

McInturff, the GOP pollster, doubts that the debates will change the fundamentals of this contest.

“It would take an episode of some magnitude to disrupt the structural lock in these numbers,” he says.

The NBC/WSJ poll was conducted Sept. 26-30 of 1,000 registered voters (including 300 cell phone-only respondents), and it has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points. The margin of error for the 832 likely voters is plus-minus 3.4 percentage points.

Nearly four in 10 voters say that the upcoming debates will be either "extremely" or "quite" important in helping determine their vote in the presidential election, according to the latest national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

That combined number -- 38 percent -- is up slightly from the last times the NBC/WSJ poll asked this question in 2004 (when 31 percent said the debates would be important) and in 2000 (when 36 percent said that).

Still, more than 60 percent say that the debates are either "just somewhat important" or "not at all important" to their votes. 

Overall in this survey, 22 percent say the debates are extremely important, 16 percent say they are quite important, 34 percent say they are just somewhat important and 28 percent say they are not at all important.

The full NBC/WSJ poll -- which was conducted of 1,000 registered voters (including 300 by cell phone) from Sept. 26-30 and which has a margin of error of plus-minus 3.1 percentage points -- will be released at 6:30 p.m. ET. That release will also contain results from likely voters.