As Republicans sort through what went wrong for former Republican nominee Mitt Romney on Tuesday, they might look back ruefully at four words that became forever associated with the GOP nominee: "Let Detroit Go Bankrupt."

There are varied reasons for President Barack Obama's re-election to a second term, from changing demographics to superior campaign organization and beyond. And Obama's broad margin in the Electoral College meant that no single state was responsible for his victory over Romney.

David Goldman / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney arrives to his election-night rally, Wednesday, Nov. 7, in Boston.

But as Republicans begin to pick through the aftermath of Romney's loss, Romney's struggles to address his opposition the 2009 rescue of General Motors and Chrysler stymied an effort to gain a foothold in Obama's Midwestern "firewall," and turn his attention to other key battleground states.

Related: Romney's chances in Ohio tied to softening auto bailout stance

It was an issue with which Romney struggled for the duration of the campaign, as Obama traipsed across Midwestern states, hammering away against his Republican opponent on the issue, while touting the resurgence of GM and Chrysler following the billions in aid provided to the companies.

A strong majority - 60 percent - of voters on Tuesday in Ohio said that they had approved of the auto bailout, and Obama beat Romney among those voters by a healthy 73 to 25 percent difference.

In Wisconsin, another state that composed Obama's firewall (along with Iowa), a majority of voters - 53 percent - said they had approved of the bailout. Obama bested Romney among those voters, 79 to 20 percent.

Those numbers suggest that Romney's effort over the past year to recast his opposition to the bailout, put bluntly, failed.

Romney's New York Times op-ed opposing then-President George W. Bush's efforts to extend aid to the troubled automakers came just weeks after the 2008 election -- four years ago next Saturday, to be exact.

And while it's unlikely that the former Massachusetts governor himself wrote the provocative headline that would stick with him through his 2012 campaign, he wrestled and struggled with the issue throughout his battle with Obama.

Even in the primaries, Romney's conservative challengers argued it was callous for him to have supported the Wall Street bailout while opposing the auto rescue, especially as a native son of Michigan whose father ran a car company when Romney was young.

Romney reasoned that the managed bankruptcy endured by GM and Chrysler was actually his idea in the first place. And then he pivoted to argue that bondholders and dealers were shortchanged in that process, to the benefit of autoworkers' unions, which had backed Obama in 2008.

But neither of those arguments seemed to resonate in the long term, prompting Romney in the closing weeks of the campaign to address his deficiency with a deeply misleading pair of radio and TV ads stoking fears that Jeep was planning to move production from the U.S. to China.

Those ads were ostensibly an effort to make gains with swing voters in the outlying areas surrounding Toledo, the home to a major Jeep production facility.

But Obama carried Lucas County, which includes Toledo, last night by the same margins as 2008. The president also carried nearby Ottowa and Wood Counties (albeit by a slimmer margin than '08), despite Bush having won both in 2000 and 2004.

COLUMBUS, OH -- The campaign stops of the 2012 election have ceased feeling like rock concerts -- they've become rock concerts.

It took no less than two of music's two biggest stars, Bruce Springsteen and Jay Z, to join forces on behalf of President Barack Obama on Monday to drive that point home.

Jason Reed / Reuters

President Barack Obama is greeted on stage by rapper Jay-Z at an election campaign rally in Columbus, Ohio, November 5, 2012 on the eve of the U.S. presidential elections.

But before the show and the afterparty and the hotel lobby, there’s the plane ride to the next gig. 

Springsteen told one reporter that his first flight on Air Force One, from Madison, Wis. to Columbus, was "pretty cool," and that he and the president had a chance to chat about the effects of Hurricane Sandy on New Jersey. And according to the Associated Press, the president also handed the phone over to Springsteen after getting an update on Sandy recovery from New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

Once at the gig, it had become clear that Springsteen has gotten a little bit of his own stump speech together for these events. For the second time today, he told a tongue-in-cheek story about the president asking him to write a campaign song that includes the campaign’s theme of “Forward” and the president’s name.  He then performed the hastily crafted song that includes lines like, “Usually this time of day I’m in my pajamas. Well, let’s vote for the man who got Osama. Forward and away we go.”

The 15,500-person audience in the not-quite-full Nationwide Arena enjoyed Springsteen’s performance, but it took a huge American flag unfurling, unrelenting bass and, well, Jay-Z to get hands in the air.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

"HOVA" performed crowd-pleasers like "Run this Town" and "Public Service Announcement." He also modified a line or two of "99 Problems," attempting to remove any profanities and replace it with a cleaner version. (The result? “I’ve got 99 problems but a Mitt ain’t one.” Still, a couple of curse words in his background vocals slipped through the cracks.)

The president seemed to enjoy his last day of campaigning with the rock stars, inviting the two on stage at the end for a photo op and saying for the second time today, “I'm …flying with Bruce Springsteen on the last day that I'll ever campaign; that's not a bad way to bring it home, with 'The Boss.'"

STERLING, Va. -- For a second time in two days, Vice President Joe Biden on Monday predicted a strong electoral showing for Democrats, saying "it's all over but the shoutin.'"

"I'm feeling good," the vice president told reporters at Mimi's Cafe during an unscheduled stop. "I really am but you know, as an old expression goes it's all over but the shoutin'."

Biden predicted - as he did yesterday in an interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews - that the Obama-Biden ticket will prevail in "firewall" states, but he acknowledged that swing states of Virginia and Florida could be squeakers.

"I'll take a one-vote majority, but I think we have a clear shot at doing well and the so-called firewall," he said, envisioning victory in Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.

"I think Florida will be close but I think we have a real shot of winning," he added. "And this state, we got a clear shot of winning it."

Biden's last full day of pre-election campaigning in virginia marks his ninth trip to the state this year.

He is barnstorming today with Senate candidate Tim Kaine, Virginia Sen. Mark Warner and retiring Sen. Jim Webb.

Updated 4:08 p.m. ET - STERLING, VA -- Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney's campaign announced Monday afternoon that the candidate would add two campaign stops on Election Day in Ohio and Pennsylvania.

A campaign official said Romney would make stops in Cleveland and Pittsburgh, part of what the GOP nominee's campaign called an effort to "keep working until the polls close."

Romney campaign advisers have eyed Pennsylvania in recent weeks as a backstop against losing other battleground states, especially as Obama has managed to maintain a mostly consistent if slight advantage over Romney in Ohio. Pennsylvania lacks a robust early voting effort and the vast majority of ballots are cast on election day. Romney's campaign and outside groups supporting it have poured money into television advertising there in recent weeks.

Pittsburgh has advantage of bleeding over into the Ohio media markets, too.

David Goldman / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney waves to supporters after finishing his speech at a campaign event at the Lynchburg Regional Airport, Monday, Nov. 5, 2012.

In Cleveland, Romney will visit his campaign's victory office, according to a Republican operative familiar with the campaign's plans.

Romney will travel to the two Midwestern battlegrounds after voting in Belmont, Massachusetts on Tuesday morning.

On Monday, Romney barnstormed across four swing states, with rallies in Florida, Virginia, Ohio and New Hampshire. The New Hampshire midnight rally in in Manchester had been billed as the campaign's finale.

Jen Psaki, the traveling campaign spokeswoman for President Barack Obama, suggested the stop was a sign of weakness.

Slideshow: Election 2012

Jim Lo Scalzo / EPA

Campaigning with Mitt Romney and Barack Obama, voting and election results.

Launch slideshow

"I will say it's no surprise that Mitt Romney is headed to Ohio, or reportedly headed to Ohio tomorrow," she told reporters in a gaggle aboard Air Force One. "Without that state it's a rocky road to victory -- an insurmountable road I would say."

Romney campaign advisers say the candidate himself decided on Monday to add the last minute stops, preferring to motivate volunteers and supporters by showing them that he was working just as hard as they are in the final hours, to sitting at home and waiting for results to come in.

Vice President Joe Biden on Sunday predicted a decisive Electoral College victory for the Democratic presidential ticket, saying that the president's midwestern "firewall" will hold.

"I think that we're going to win.  I don't think it's going to be close in the Electoral College," said the vice president in an interview with MSNBC's Chris Matthews after a rally outside Toledo.

"I think the firewall here of Ohio, Wisconsin, Iowa -- I think it's going to hold firm," he said.

Biden's certainty  didn't extend to the two major battlegrounds of Virginia and florida, which public polling have shown to be trending slightly in the Republicans' favor. He told Matthews that Democrats have an "even chance" in those states after predicting wins in Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Nevada and Iowa.

But even without the combined 42 electoral votes of the two Southern swing states, the Obama-Biden ticket could still win a decisive Electoral College victory if Democrats hold midwestern and western states like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Colorado.

Biden was also upbeat about the possibilities for compromise in Congress after the election, despite his frequent lambasting of the Tea Party's influence in the United States House and Senate.

"We need leaders that can control their party," he said. "And I think you're going to see the fever break." 

Wrapping a whirlwind day of campaigning, President Barack Obama joined Bill Clinton — the last Democratic president, and vocal advocate for Obama — at a massive rally Saturday evening in northern Virginia. 

Before a crowd estimated at 24,000, Obama both literally and figuratively embraced Clinton, who has emerged as one of the most dogged advocates for the president's re-election campaign this fall. 

"He has been traveling all across the country for this campaign. He's been laying out the stakes so well that our team basically calls him the 'Secretary of Explaining Stuff,'" Obama said. "He was a great president; he has been a great friend."

As the final weekend of the 2012 campaign raised the question of which candidate, Obama or Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, would best move Washington past its intractable problems, Clinton, a president who has only grown more popular since leaving office, offered Obama his imprimatur. 

"As you see, I have given my voice in the service of my president," the hoarse former president said, following some local favorites, the Dave Matthews Band, at the rally in suburban Washington. 

NBC Politics coverage of the 2012 campaign:

• Uncertain finale looms amid weekend campaign blitz
• Romney implores Colorado for 'one last push'
• Biden zings Romney in Colorado
• Ryan travels to Pennsylvania, trying to put state in play
• Obama plays up 'trust' in battleground Ohio
• Obama aide explains 'voting is best revenge' comment
• Ryan: 'We believe in change and hope'
• Romney strikes optimistic tone as final weekend opens
• Polls: Obama stays ahead in Ohio, deadlocked with Romney in Fla.
• GOP's chances at Senate imperiled by self-inflicted wounds

Both Obama and Romney spent the day criss-crossing the United States to make a firmly centrist appeal, each of them trying to sound upbeat as the clock counts down on Election 2012. Each candidate drew thousands — sometimes tens of thousands — of supporters to rallies in Iowa, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Ohio and beyond. And each candidate argued he was the one who could break through the gridlock in a Congress beset for the past two years by bitter partisan fights.

"You know that if the president is re-elected, he'll still be unable to work with the people in Congress," Romney told a sprawling crowd in Colorado. "He's ignored them. He's blamed them. He's attacked them."

Romney spent much of the campaign's final weekend arguing he was the candidate of "change," co-opting Obama's 2008 message to use four years later against the president. 

Whether the Republican candidate's claim to to the mantle of change would resonate with a handful of remaining swing voters in just a few battleground states was unclear. Obama seemed to enjoy an edge in states like Iowa, leading Romney by five points among likely voters, according to the Des Moines Register's final poll. But a WMUR poll of New Hampshire also found the president and Romney tied, at 47 percent, in another battleground state: New Hampshire. 

That neither Obama or Romney had managed to open a solid advantage over the other in the final hours of the campaign only raised the stakes for the final series of events on Sunday and Monday. Both Obama and Romney — along with Vice President Biden and Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan — were set to hit the road for another robust schedule tomorrow. Obama was set to travel to Colorado, Florida, and New Hampshire; Romney's schedule would take him to Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania.

MARIETTA, Ohio — Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan echoed Mitt Romney’s call to vote for “love of country” not out of “revenge,” seizing upon a line of President Barack Obama's

“Mitt Romney and I are asking you to vote out of love of country,” Ryan told a crowd at Marietta College. “That's what we do in this country. We don't believe in revenge. We believe in change and hope.”

Ryan was referencing remarks President Obama made Friday, also in the battleground state of Ohio, that voting against the GOP nominee is “the best revenge.”

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Romney’s running mate added Saturday morning, in the heart of coal country: “Look, in 2008 President Obama made all these lofty promises, it sounded so good. He said that we would have bi-partisanship, that he’d bridge the gap. He said he’d cut the deficit in half, that he’d get people working again, and he’d create jobs. You see all those jobs here in Marietta? Look, it sounded good and when he got elected people naturally expected him to deliver those results but it didn’t happen and look what we got.”

The Obama re-election campaign, in an email statement, claimed the GOP ticket is “willing to say anything to win, but their rhetoric just doesn’t match reality.”

With just three days to go before Election Day, it’s the final push for both campaigns and the state of Ohio is center stage.

Recommended: Ryan travels to Pennsylvania, trying to put state in play

According to the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll released early Saturday morning, Obama holds a six-point advantage over Romney among likely voters, 51 percent to 45 percent, in the Buckeye State.

Related: Polls: Obama stays ahead in Ohio, deadlocked with Romney in Fla.

Romney and Ryan held their final campaign rally together before the Nov. 6 election in Ohio Friday night. They will both make several more appearances separately to the state over the next 72 hours in hopes of securing Ohio’s 18 electoral votes.

Updated at 5:50pmET: A rapidly-approaching conclusion loomed over the 2012 election on Saturday, as President Barack Obama, Republican nominee Mitt Romney, their running mates and surrogates swarmed a series of battleground states to make their closing messages.

Obama and Romney each employed a mixture of uplifting, forward-looking rhetoric with attacks on the other during a whirlwind tour of battleground states set to decide the election on Tuesday.

 Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Looking for a catalyzing moment to push past Obama in those swing states, Romney opted to play up the president's comments Friday at a rally, at which he urged supporters to vote as a means of seeking "revenge" against Republicans.

"Yesterday the president said something you may have heard by now that I think surprised a lot of people. Speaking to an audience, he said you know voting is the best 'revenge,'" Romney said. "He told his supporters, voting for revenge. Vote for revenge? Let me tell you what I’d like to tell you: Vote for love of country."

The Obama campaign, in response Saturday afternoon, called the line of attack "very small."

"I think it's interesting that that's the closing argument that the Romney campaign is making," said Obama spokesman Ben LaBolt.

Related: Obama aide explains 'voting is best revenge' comment

The remarks were consistent with Romney's effort to project momentum heading into the campaign's final weekend, riding high after drawing the largest crowd of its campaign at a Friday night rally in Ohio. The Republican ticket has essentially tried to co-opt the themes of "change" from Obama's 2008 campaign as its closing argument now against the president.

But the Romney campaign's outward optimism clashed with new polls giving Obama an ever-so-slight edge in pivotal swing states. New NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist polls showed Romney trailing Obama by six points among likely voters in Ohio, and by two points in Florida.

 Related: Polls: Obama stays ahead in Ohio, deadlocked with Romney in Fla.

Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan's trip Saturday afternoon to Pennsylvania, a state which the GOP has only contended in the final days of the campaign, was emblematic of the campaigns' dueling perspectives toward the campaign. The Romney campaign argued it was a sign of surging momentum while the Obama campaign cast the trip as an act of desperation — a Hail Mary effort driven by foreclosed opportunities in other battleground states. (Romney will stop in Pennsylvania on Sunday.)

While the outcome on Election Day is far from assured, a certain wistfulness set in as Obama looked back at his four years in office. He argued his experience as president showed he was someone whom voters could trust, meaning to imply as well that Romney wasn't.

"When you elect a president, you don’t know what kinds of emergencies may happen. You don’t know what problems he or she may deal with," he said. "But you want to be able to trust your president."

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In this composite photo: President Barack Obama points while speaking at a campaign event at Mentor High School in Ohio, and Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney speaks at a campaign rally in Dubuque, Iowa November 3, 2012.  

And amid the late-breaking attack by Romney meant to cast Obama as embittered, the president told a crowd in Mentor, Ohio: "I don't feel cynical. I feel hopeful."

There were signs that awareness of the campaign's approaching horizon had set in among the Romney campaign as well.

"It was very emotional when I gave my last address by myself, because I hear the voices and the passion of the people out there that are really hurting, and they are etched in my mind and my heart, as they are with Mitt," Ann Romney told the press corps traveling with her husband. "It's been an extraordinary experience."

 Recommended: Ryan travels to Pennsylvania, trying to put state in play

The full range of reflection would have to wait, though, until Wednesday. Obama and Romney — along with their running mates, Vice President Joe Biden and Ryan — each have a long list of stops ahead of them during the remainder of Saturday, Sunday and Monday. Their efforts are met by hoards of Democratic and Republican surrogates, who fanned out across the country as part of a frenzied effort in hopes of  adding a few more swing states to their candidate's column on Tuesday. 

Updated 2:35 p.m. ET -- Four days before voters head to the polls, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney sought to bring their different economic visions into sharp relief before throngs of Midwestern voters who could decide the election.

Romney, who delivered on Friday what he said was the “closing argument” of his campaign, said the economy was hopelessly mired in stagnation under Obama, and promised to deliver “real change” if elected.

Jim Young / Reuters

Supporters of Mitt Romney gesture at a campaign rally in West Allis, Wis., Nov. 2, 2012.

Obama pointed to green shoots of economic recovery while barnstorming battleground Ohio, accusing his Republican opponent of deception on the question of change, as well as the 2009 auto industry rescue that could swing the outcome of the election.

Romney started the day with a speech in the battleground state of Wisconsin, assailing Obama for having failed at his promise to change Washington; Romney said his experience in the private sector and as governor of Massachusetts has shown he can boost the economy and bridge partisan divides that have grinded lawmaking in the nation’s capital to a virtual halt.

“The question of this election comes down to this: do you want more of the same or do you want real change?” Romney asked. “President Obama promised change, but he could not deliver it. I promise change, and I have a record of achieving it.”

A robust campaign schedule for Obama and Romney, along with their running mates, brought the campaign back to its central issue -- jobs and the economy -- just as a key monthly employment report showed that the U.S. added more jobs than expected in October. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that the economy added 171,000 jobs last month -- though the unemployment rate inched upward to 7.9 percent as the size of the American workforce grew.

Check out the NBC News' Election Briefing Book

“This morning we learned that companies hired more workers in October than at any time in the last eight months,” Obama said at a Friday rally in Ohio. “We've made real progress, but we are here today because we know we've got more work to do. As long as there's a single American who wants a job but can't find one ... our fight goes on.”

The stasis in campaigning that set in following the landfall of Hurricane Sandy earlier this week had all but faded Friday, as both campaigns resumed their full-throated critiques of one another.

Romney sought to wrest the mantle of “change” away from Obama, continuing on a theme he has stressed in recent weeks, and going so far as warning on Friday that if the U.S. doesn't change course, it could risk slipping back into recession.

Obama has long blamed Republican obstructionism and special interests for impeding his agenda, and thereby, the pace of economic recovery.

Romney, who made his first stop in Wisconsin since naming Paul Ryan, a congressman from the state, as his running mate, suggested his experience as governor of Massachusetts and a former private equity executive would help him succeed where Obama had failed.

Jobs data unlikely to sway undecided voters

"I have watched over these last few months as our campaign has gathered the strength of a movement," Romney said. "I will reach out to both sides of the aisle. I will bring people together, doing big things for the common good. I won’t just represent one party, I’ll represent one nation. I’ll try to show the best of America, at a time when only our best will do."

Romney traveled next to Ohio, where he would join Obama in courting the vote of the Buckeye State -- a pivotal Midwestern battleground where the outcome could determine the winner of the Electoral College.

There, the president upbraided Romney on the notion that the Republican nominee could deliver change, ridiculing the GOP nominee’s proposals as little more than warmed-over leftovers from the Bush administration.

“We know what the right choice is, but let's face it, Gov. Romney is a talented salesman,” he said, accusing his Republican opponent of repackaging tired GOP ideas. “We know what change looks like, and what the governor's offering ain't it.”

The Obama campaign has relied on Ohio to serve as a kind of “firewall” for the president, concentrating for months on building an advantage over Romney in hopes of impeding the GOP candidate’s path to 270 electoral votes. Obama has led Romney by a slim, but consistent, margin in most public polls, prompting the Republican ticket to ratchet up its attacks on the administration’s handling of the auto industry bailout.

Romney’s offensive includes a series of new ads taking aim at the president on the issue of the auto industry bailout, stoking (incorrect) fears that Jeep would move production and jobs from the U.S. to China.

First Thoughts: A status-quo election?

Those suggestions earned him a strong rebuke from both the president, as well as Vice President Biden, who campaigned in Wisconsin, a state that has reliably supported Democrats in recent presidential cycles.

"Everyone knows it’s not true. The car companies themselves have told Gov. Romney to knock it off," Obama said of the ads, accusing Romney of trying to scare the state’s autoworkers. "You don’t scare hardworking Americans just to scare up some votes. That’s not what being president is all about. That’s not leadership."

Biden, speaking in Beloit, went a step further: “In the last hours of this campaign, Romney and Ryan have become truly desperate. Romney will say anything to win.”

But Republicans returned to the issue of employment, arguing Friday that the employment situation had scarcely improved over the last four years, and hardly matched the White House’s projections upon selling its stimulus package in January of 2009. That, they said, justified Obama’s expulsion from office.

“In the president’s campaign for another term, he has offered nothing different and if he is re-elected, nothing different is exactly what we would get,” Ryan said at a rally in Colorado. “And we are not going to let him get away with that are we?”

Is it possible we see a status-quo election?... Final jobs report before election is mostly good news for Obama: Economy added 171,000 jobs in October and unemployment rate ticks up to 7.9%... How to view Romney’s move into Pennsylvania… Don’t compare this election’s data with 2008; compare it with 2004… Trying to predict the turnout, as well as Sandy’s impact… Obama campaigns in Ohio, while Romney will be in Wisconsin and the Buckeye State… Public poll suggests Mourdock is headed for defeat… And “Meet” has David Plouffe and Eric Cantor.

*** A status-quo election? Despite the billions of dollars spent, the endless campaigning, and the breathless reporting, it is POSSIBLE we could end up with a status-quo result on Election Day -- with President Obama winning re-election, Democrats keeping control of the Senate, and Republicans staying in power in the House. Now we’re not saying these things will happen, but with four days to go, you’d probably rather be Obama than Mitt Romney, Senate Democrats instead of Senate Republicans, and House Republicans rather than House Democrats. But if that’s the result on Tuesday, we’d have a status-quo result after three previous change elections (in 2006, 2008, and 2010). And it would be an ironic outcome, given the majorities who believe the country is headed on the wrong track and given Congress’ very low approval rating. Then the challenge would be to govern – with better results than we saw in 2011 and 2012. Of course, it’s possible we see a fourth-straight change election. But it’s also very possible things stay the same.

 
*** Economy adds 171,000 jobs in October, unemployment rate at 7.9%: When it comes to the last jobs report before the election, it’s good news for Team Obama. In October, the U.S. economy added 171,000 jobs and the unemployment ticked up to 7.9% -- but remains below 8%. The AP: "The Labor Department's last look at hiring before Tuesday's election sketched a picture of a job market that is gradually gaining momentum after nearly stalling in the spring. Since July, the economy has created an average of 173,000 jobs a month, up from 67,000 a month from April through June. Still, President Barack Obama will face voters with the highest unemployment rate of any incumbent since Franklin Roosevelt. The rate ticked up because more people without jobs started looking for work. The government only counts people as unemployed if they are actively searching.”

*** How to view Romney’s move into Pennsylvania: There are two ways to interpret Mitt Romney’s decision to campaign in Pennsylvania on Sunday. Either it’s a move to run up the score (trying to get to 300 electoral votes) and project more momentum, or it’s an effort to search for another path to 270 electoral votes. Ask yourself what is the more likely option, and it’s hard to ignore the latter. Consider: Most public polls continue to show Obama leading slightly in Ohio, and Romney hasn’t made a serious campaign effort in Keystone State since the primaries. Indeed, it’s difficult not to compare this move to an on-side kick in football -- when you’re behind by a touchdown with a few ticks on the clock left.

Slideshow: On the campaign trail

Reuters, Getty Images

In the final push in the 2012 presidential election, candidates Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their last appeals to voters.

Launch slideshow

*** Don’t compare this election’s data with 2008; compare it with 2004: Bracing for a very close election on Tuesday night, we’re sure that everyone is studying past exit polls, county vote totals in the swing states, the early vote, and previous victory margins. But perhaps the best way to compare Tuesday’s contest isn’t with the figures from 2008, when Barack Obama decisively beat John McCain in 2008, 53%-46%. Instead, it’s comparing this election with 2004, when George W. Bush narrowly beat John Kerry, 51%-48%. How Obama is performing vs. Kerry and how Romney is performing vs. Bush might be the best way to understand how Election Night is breaking, especially when it comes to Ohio.

*** Patchwork Nation: One way additional way to compare this election with 2004 and 2008 is through Patchwork Nation, the work by journalist Dante Chinni putting all the nation’s counties -- including those in battleground states -- into 12 different county categories. Some examples: Industrial Metropolis (think Philadelphia), College and Careers (Johnson County, IA), Monied Burbs (Fairfax County, VA), Empty Nests (Lake, FL), Immigration Nation (Maricopa, AZ), Boom Towns (Clark, NV), and Evangelical Epicenters (Christian, MO). What is interesting here: When you take the merged likely-voter respondents from our national NBC/WSJ poll from these different county types, you see that Obama is underperforming from 2008 but overperforming from 2004. For instance, in the Monied Burbs -- which makes up 23% of the country’s population -- Obama is leading Romney by seven points among likely-voter respondents in the NBC/WSJ poll, 51%-44%. That’s lower than Obama’s 12-point lead over McCain in ’08. But it’s greater than Kerry’s two-point edge in ’04, 50%-48%. Bottom line: If Obama is overperforming Kerry from ’04, he’s likely to win. Ditto if Romney is overperforming Bush.

*** Trying to predict the turnout: What will the turnout be on Election Day? The Republican half of our NBC/WSJ polling team has researched the topic, predicting that the number of votes will EXCEED those cast in 2008 -- which was just more than 130 million. But they also believe that the percent of citizens of voting age who will participate will DROP from 2008 (62.9%) and 2004 (63.1%) due in large part to less voter enthusiasm than in those past elections. So how could the number of votes increase but the participation percentage drop? The answer is simple: The U.S. population has grown from 2008 (when there were 210 million Americans of voting age) to 2012 (when there are almost 220 million).

Larry Downing / REUTERS

President Barack Obama addresses the crowd at a campaign event at the University of Colorado Boulder, Nov. 1, 2012.

*** And Sandy’s impact on turnout: Here’s another question: What will Sandy’s impact on turnout be? The AP has this quote from turnout expert Michael McDonald: “It’s unlikely disruptions from Sandy would affect the outcome of the election within those states. But if those voters, who are mostly Democrats, end up being subtracted from the national popular vote, you'll get a lower vote share for Obama than he would have received if those people had voted.” And crunching the numbers – if you assume 2008 totals and a 15% reduction in turnout in the coastal counties in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Rhode Island, Obama might end up losing a net 340,000 votes.  Our math:

New York: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -247,000
New York – Obama -86,000, Romney -14,000, Net: Obama -72,000
Queens – Obama -72,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -49,000
Kings – Obama -91,000, Romney -23,000, Net: Obama -68,000
Bronx – Obama -51,000, Romney -6,000, Net: Obama -45,000
Richmond – Obama -12,000, Romney -13,000, Net: Romney -1,000
Nassau – Obama -51,000, Romney -43,000, Net: Obama -8,000
Suffolk – Obama -52,000, Romney -46,000, Net: Obama -6,000

New Jersey: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -60,000
Bergen – Obama -34,000, Romney -28,000, Net: Obama -6,000
Hudson – Obama -23,000, Romney -8,000, Net: Obama -15,000
Union – Obama -21,000, Romney -12,000, Net: Obama -9,000
Essex – Obama -36,000, Romney -11,000, Net: Obama -25,000
Middlesex – Obama -29,000, Romney -19,000, Net: Obama -10,000
Monmouth –Obama -22,000, Romney -24,000, Net: Romney -2,000
Ocean – Obama -16,500, Romney, -24,000, Net: Romney -7,500
Atlantic – Obama -10,200, Romney -7,500, Net: Obama -2,700
Cape May – Obama -3,500, Romney -4,000, Net: Romney -500

Connecticut: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -29,000
Fairfield – Obama -36,000, Romney -25,000, Net: Obama -9,000
New Haven – Obama -35,000, Romney -22,000, Net: Obama -13,000
Middlesex – Obama -8,000, Romney -5,000, Net: Obama -3,000
New London – Obama -11,000, Romney -7,000, Net: Obama -4,000

Rhode Island: GRAND TOTAL: Obama -3,600
Washington – Obama -6,000, Romney -4,000, Net: Obama -2,000
Newport – Obama -4,000, Romney -2,400, Net: Obama -1,600

*** On the trail: Obama spends his day in Ohio, hitting Hilliard at 10:20 am ET, Springfield at 12:55 pm ET, and Lima at 3:20 pm ET… Romney campaigns in West Allis, WI at 10:55 am ET and in West Chester, OH (with Ann Romney and Paul Ryan) at 7:30 pm ET… Biden stumps in Wisconsin, while Ryan is in Iowa… Bill Clinton visits Florida, and Michelle Obama hits Virginia.

*** Is Richard Mourdock headed for defeat? According to a new poll, it appears that way in Indiana’s Senate contest. “Democratic Senate nominee U.S. Rep. Joe Donnelly has built a significant lead in the race for Senate, according to a new Howey/DePauw University Battleground Poll. The poll, released this morning, shows Donnelly leading Republican State Treasurer Richard Mourdock 47 percent to 36 percent, with Libertarian Andrew Horning getting 6 percent.” Now Republicans have released their own poll showing Mourdock at 46% and Donnelly at 44%

*** On “Meet”: This Sunday, NBC’s David Gregory interviews White House senior adviser David Plouffe and House Majority Leader Cantor.

Countdown to Election Day: 4 days

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