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    11
    Jan
    2012
    10:49am, EST

    Romney's NH win 2nd largest margin of victory since Reagan

     

    By NBC's John Bailey
    Follow @johnpatrickbail

     

    On the heels of the slimmest Iowa caucus victory in history, Mitt Romney’s 16-point win in last night's New Hampshire Republican primary was the second-largest margin of victory for a non-incumbent in more than 30 years. In 1980, Ronald Reagan beat George H.W. Bush by nearly 27 points. Back then, Reagan captured just less than 50% of the vote compared with Bush’s 22.7%.

    And in 2000, John McCain bested George W. Bush by more than 18 percentage points.

    Romney’s win last night also was better than average. Since 1972, non-incumbent New Hampshire victors have won by an average of about 12 percentage points. But the high margin of victory could be due to an usually high diffusion of the remaining vote between the other candidates. Non-incumbent winners received, on average, slightly under 40 percent of the total vote, nearly identical to Romney’s share Tuesday night.

    *** Note *** A earlier version of this story noted that Romney's win was the largest margin since Reagan. As it turns out, McCain got an 18-point win in New Hampshire in 2000. So Romney's is the second largest.

    95 comments

    So, the 'crown' has been polished and is waiting to be placed on top of the vulture capitalists impeccably groomed over inflated head! Got it... lol PS: Still waiting for someone to explain to me WHY after 5 years of campaigning Willard still is only at 39%.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: mitt-romney, new-hampshire, decision-2012
  • 4
    Jan
    2012
    1:02pm, EST

    Does Bachmann ending presidential run prove importance of Iowa caucus?

    By Jessica Hopper
    Rock Center

    The day after the Iowa caucuses, at least one presidential contender, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, has dropped out of the race and another, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, has vowed to fight on despite a disappointing finish in the Hawkeye state.

    Bachmann received only 5 percent of Iowans' votes.  

    "I have decided to stand aside," Bachmann told her supporters at a press conference this morning.  "We must rally around the person that our country and our party and our people select to be that standard bearer, but make no mistake, I'll continue to be a strong voice."

    On Tuesday, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney narrowly edged out former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum by just 8 votes in Iowa. 

    The Iowa caucuses have long been venerated as the first big contest in the presidential nomination race with the outcome spelling the beginning of the end for some presidential contenders and giving a much needed surge to others.


    “I think Iowa deserves to be the first in the nation caucus,” said Kyle Munson, a columnist for The Des Moines Register.  “We’re a well-educated state... We’re well dispersed state population wise. People can really meet with voters, I think. And we’re becoming more and more diverse, counter to the perennial claim of us being too white or too ultra conservative, so I think it’s a very representative state if you take the time to look at it.”

    A record number of Iowans participated in the caucuses Tuesday with 122,255 people voting.  Ron Paul finished third among the GOP pack with 21 percent of the vote.  Newt Gingrich finished fourth.  After last night’s results, Texas Gov. Perry, who placed fifth, returned to Texas to reassess his campaign, but announced in a tweet this morning that he will continue on.

    Munson of The Des Moines Register has watched Iowa become the center of attention over the last few months, with pundits questioning how much significance should be given to Iowa’s caucuses.  Despite all of the media attention paid to its first-in-the-nation status, in the last 40 years, only one GOP candidate has won in Iowa and gone on to win the presidency.

    “Right now, the national media, the New York Times, all sorts of outlets are filled with assessments of Iowa and what’s Iowa really like and who are these people picking the next president,” said Munson. “I think we’re willing to listen to different opinions, it’s just do they have a kernel of truth in them?”

    The criticism that seems to have caused the most uproar among Iowans came from a resident-- Stephen Bloom, a University of Iowa journalism professor who has lived in the state for 20 years. Bloom’s article, “Observations From 20 Years of Iowan Life,” was published online in The Atlantic in December. The article went viral and quickly mushroomed into outrage among Iowans.

    Bloom called Iowans “an assortment of waste-toids” and said rural Iowa consists of the “elderly waiting to die” and “meth addicts with pale skin and rotted teeth.”  He defended his article as a form of parody and satire in an interview with Rock Center’s Willie Geist.

    "Iowa isn't a place that's representative of America and why then should it be the springboard for the national presidential election," Bloom said.

    Munson said it’s fair to start a conversation about Iowa’s role in the presidential nomination process.

    “I think Stephen Boom’s article hints at some good questions about the declining population and economic  fortunes in rural Iowa, the brain drain of our youth, but the problem is they get buried under the way he’s mangled some of the facts and the mean spirited nature of his prose,” Munson said.

    Several of the GOP presidential contenders are moving their campaign efforts to New Hampshire today where the next primary is scheduled, but just how much of what happened in Iowa predicts what will happen in New Hampshire?

    Since 1980, the Iowa caucuses have correctly predicted the GOP presidential nominee twice.  The New Hampshire primary has had a slightly better track record, correctly predicting the GOP nominee three times since 1980. It’s rare for both the winner in Iowa and New Hampshire to be the same, but no Republican presidential candidate has won the nomination without either winning in New Hampshire or Iowa. The South Carolina primary, scheduled just 11 days after the New Hampshire primary, may be the most telling.  Every winner of the South Carolina GOP primary since 1980 has gone on to win the Republican nomination.

    1 comment

    Not really because her champagne was really over weeks ago.

    Show more
    Explore related topics: politics, new-hampshire, republican, iowa-caucus, 2012-gop-primary, stephen-bloom
  • 4
    Jan
    2012
    12:56pm, EST

    Leaving Iowa to face voters in New Hampshire

    Evan Vucci / AP

    Tea party supporter William Temple, of Brunswick, Ga., sits in the Des Moines Airport heading home after the Iowa caucus, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012.

    Matthew Cavanaugh / Getty Images

    Globe Manufacturing Company employees Shirley Smith, left, and Pat Dexter listen as Republican presidential candidate and former Utah Governor, Jon Huntsman Jr., speaks on Jan. 04, 2012 in Pittsfield, New Hampshire. Huntsman continues to campaign hard in the nation's first primary state. Globe makes equipment for firefighters and other emergency workers.

    With the Iowa caucus over, the candidates and their supporters head to New Hampshire for the next contest which will take place Jan. 10. Jon Huntsman skipped Iowa and concentrated on New Hampshire and Michele Bachmann dropped out of the race after a poor showing in Iowa. More news from NBC politics.

    48 comments

    Tea party supporter William Temple, of Brunswick, Ga., sits in the Des Moines Airport heading home after the Iowa caucus, Wednesday, Jan. 4, 2012. And William wants people to take him seriously? Nice, very nice.

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    Explore related topics: iowa, politics, vote, new-hampshire, us-news, primary, caucus
  • 4
    Jan
    2012
    7:46am, EST

    After strong Iowa showing, Santorum camp looks ahead to SC

    By NBC's Ali Weinberg

    CHARLESTON, S.C. – As Rick Santorum’s supporters celebrated his strong Iowa showing, they were also making preparations for a push through South Carolina that will begin even before the New Hampshire primary vote.

    Andrew Burton / Getty Images

    U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum addresses a crowd in Iowa on Jan 3.

    Santorum’s South Carolina fans, some of whom were gathered at his relatively well-appointed campaign headquarters to watch the caucus returns, will be able to see him in the Palmetto State on the afternoon of Sunday, Jan. 8th, when he stops in Greenville just two days before the New Hampshire vote.


    His campaign also added another South Carolina staffer: political consultant Andrew Boucher, a former executive director of the New Hampshire Republican primary – a ramping-up of staff that suggests Santorum will seek to capitalize on his Iowa momentum here, a state that has picked every Republican presidential candidate since 1980.

    Recommended: 11 things you might not now about Santorum

    Santorum’s supporters, about 15 of whom remained at the headquarters as the final votes trickled in, were ecstatic about his neck-and-neck finish with Mitt Romney – but some of them said they weren’t surprised he did so well.

    “I knew this was going to happen,” Kathy Hughes, a retired teacher from Mt. Pleasant, said. “So many people were saying, ‘why are you supporting him? Santorum can’t win!’ But I knew.”

    She added that the phones at Santorum’s headquarters here had been ringing non-stop over the past few days. The phone did buzz a few times into the wee hours of Wednesday morning; the last call, Hughes said, came from a voter in Peoria, Illinois who was trying to get in touch with one of Santorum’s early-state headquarters.

    • STORY: Romney edges past Santorum in Iowa photo finish

    Joan Peters, a member of the Charleston Tea Party board from Moncks Corner, said she supported Santorum’s decision not to skip New Hampshire and come directly to South Carolina as Michele Bachmann is doing and Rick Perry was going to do before he announced he’d first return to Austin to reassess his campaign.

    “He’s probably not going to win because Mitt Romney’s got New Hampshire pretty sewn up, but he’ll do well and then he’ll come down to South Carolina and the money’s going to start coming in,” Peters said. “People now realize what we’ve always realized, which is that he’s a credible candidate and he can win.”

    More on NBC Politics: 

  • Three major storylines from the entrance polls
  • Perry to 'reassess' campaign
  • NBC's Andrew Rafferty: Much has changed for Santorum
  •  

    382 comments

    Santorum's social positions are socially unacceptable. He is unelectable.

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    Explore related topics: iowa, politics, gop, new-hampshire, south-carolina, republican, rick-santorum, ali-weinberg
  • 11
    Dec
    2011
    1:26am, EST

    Romney snags key mayor's endorsement in New Hampshire

    By NBC's Jo Ling Kent
    Follow @JoNBCNews

     

    BEDFORD, N.H. -- Scoring one of the last major endorsements in New Hampshire, Mitt Romney announced Saturday night that he has been endorsed by Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas with exactly one month to go until the first-in-the-nation primary.

    Gatsas, who leads the state's largest city and has served as the state Senate president, said Romney's electability was a deciding factor.

    “After spending 25 years in the private sector as a successful businessman, Mitt knows how to balance budgets, fix broken enterprises and create jobs. He is also the strongest Republican candidate with the best organization to take on President Obama in 2012,” Gatsas said in a statement to NBC News.

    “I am also impressed with the time and effort that he has invested in New Hampshire,” Gatsas added.

    Gatsas, who endorsed John McCain in 2008 over Romney, will appear with the former Massachusetts governor on Monday morning at Manchester's Chez Vachon restaurant, a frequented stop on the New Hampshire campaign trail.

    Romney also recently cemented the support of Sen. Kelly Ayotte, Rep. Charlie Bass and state Senate President Peter Bragdon -- and he has won a majority of key local endorsements.

    "As a successful entrepreneur, Ted understands the challenges facing small business owners, and he has supported pro-growth policies tha twill help them create jobs,” said Romney. “I am proud to have earned Ted’s support."

    Gatsas was reelected as mayor in a landslide in November. Before assuming public office, he co-founded Staffing Network, a company that became one of New England's largest employers. Gatsas has said publicly that he is considering a run for New Hampshire governor, to be vacated next year by Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat.

    With the New Hampshire primary four weeks away, most of the major GOP endorsements have been snapped up. Two major players remain unaffiliated: Congressman Frank Guinta and state House Speaker Bill O'Brien.

    O'Brien is widely expected to back another House speaker -- Newt Gingrich. Guinta recently told NBC News that he has whittled his list down to Romney, Gingrich, Jon Huntsman and Rick Santorum.

    New Hampshire voters go to the polls Jan. 10.

    15 comments

    The fact that seven hours after this 'momentous' endorsement was announced, this appears to be the first comment should give interested voters pause. No one seems to care if Mitt got an endorsement or who of great importance 'bestowed' that honor on him!! And you can bet $10,000 on that!!

    Show more
    Explore related topics: mitt-romney, new-hampshire, decision-2012, jo-ling-kent, romney-embed
  • 27
    Nov
    2011
    7:39am, EST

    Surging Newt Gingrich nabs New Hampshire Union Leader's endorsement

    By Jo Ling Kent, NBC News

    MANCHESTER, N.H. -- In a significant development in the Republican presidential contest, the New Hampshire Union Leader newspaper endorsed former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich as his campaign surges in polls both nationally and locally. Despite his tumultuous political past, Gingrich was cited by the paper to have conservative credentials they believe to be critical to win the GOP nomination.

    "A lot of candidates say they're going to improve Washington," wrote publisher Joe McQuaid. "Newt Gingrich has actually done that, and in this race he offers the best shot of doing it again."

    The paper called Gingrich's strategy "innovative, forward looking" and his leadership "positive." However, McQuaid was quick to conceded Gingrich is far from the ideal candidate.

    Slideshow: Gingrich through the years


    "Newt Gingrich is by no means the perfect candidate," McQuaid wrote. "But Republican primary voters too often make the mistake of preferring an unattainable ideal to the best candidate who is actually running ... he has the experience, the leadership qualities and the vision to lead this country in trying times."

    Gingrich: 'Enormous boost'
    The paper's support is considered the state's most influential media nod ahead of the first-in-the-nation Republican primary and will certainly help Gingrich's prospects here. The Union Leader is the state's largest and only state-wide daily publication. It prides itself on being independent and conservative.

    "We are honored to have the endorsement of the Union Leader," Gingrich's New Hampshire state campaign director Andrew Hemingway told NBC News Sunday morning. "This is an enormous boost to our campaign and further proof the the people of N.H. are wanting substance and solutions over soundbites and pandering." Gingrich was not immediately available for comment.

    The Union Leader's Gingrich endorsement comes after significant courting by Mitt Romney, who has been campaigning in the state for several years. This is the second time that the Union Leader has chosen not to endorse Romney. In 2008, it notably backed John McCain who eventually went on to win the New Hampshire primary following a major comeback from a near-dead campaign the summer and fall before the primary. The paper's editorial team also took several significant swipes at Romney in the process, undoubtedly hurting his chances in New Hampshire.

    Looking back, the Union Leader has only supported two Republican candidates who went on to actually cement the GOP nomination: Reagan in 1980 and McCain in 2008. The Granite State publication endorsed Ronald Reagan in 1976 and 1980, Pete du Pont in 1988, Pat Buchanan in 1992 and 1996, Steve Forbes in 2000 and John McCain 2008.

    GOP candidate Newt Gingrich was front and center in Tuesday's debate, reflecting his recent surge to the top of the polls. On immigration, Gingrich disagreed with the other candidates by calling for a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who are longtime residents and have paid taxes. NBC's Andrea Mitchell has more.

    As for this election cycle, McQuaid recently told the Concord Monitor that "the future of the free world" is at stake. McQuaid said that the paper decided on its endorsement earlier this week and wrote the opinion ahead of Thanksgiving.

    "I'm not kidding," McQuaid said of the upcoming 2012 contest. "I think this is a very important election in America."

    In the latest New Hampshire polls, Gingrich is tied with Rep. Ron Paul for second place at 14 percent, behind former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney who garnered 41 percent, according to Suffolk University and 7 News. In another state-wide survey by WMUR and University of New Hampshire, Gingrich has 15 percent of support, behind Romney at 45 percent and ahead of Paul at 12 percent.

    In the last month, Gingrich has retooled his New Hampshire strategy by building out a virtually non-existent structure, citing new funds as his impetus to expand. He has visited more frequently, brought in Hemingway and rapidly hired New Hampshire-based staff, most recently snagging Rep. Michele Bachmann's former New Hampshire director Jeff Chidester.

    His campaign has also started rolling out "Newt Hampshire", a Granite State-focused web platform to attract supporters and get out the vote in the final weeks until the primary.

    New Hampshire voters go to the polls on Tuesday, January 10.

    1144 comments

    Interesting conundrum, and I wish Mark or Domenico were around to answer the question: What happens to Mitty if he loses in New Hampshire? That will surely put the damper on his candidacy, won't it? It is just fascinating that Mitt can't close the deal..... I am amused at how people are fooled by …

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    Explore related topics: new-hampshire, newt-gingrich, decision-2012

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