In a boost for proponents of comprehensive immigration reform, a new report from the Congressional Budget Office estimates that the immigration bill currently being debated in the Senate would increase the U.S. population by 10.4 million and would decrease federal budget deficits by $197 billion between 2014 and 2023.

The much-anticipated report indicates that enacting the legislation would create new federal outlays of about $262 billion in the first decade but would increase revenues – largely from new income and payroll taxes – by $459 billion.

It also estimates that about 8 million undocumented immigrants would initially gain legal status under the bill’s provisions.

While the CBO does not typically provide estimates beyond the first decade of enactment, the report tackled estimates for the time period of 2024-2033, estimating that the federal budget deficits would decrease by an additional $700 billion over that time. By 2033, the net increase to the U.S. population as a result of the bill's enactment would be about 16 million, CBO says. 

The positive estimates are a boon for proponents of the reform effort, who argue that immigration is an economic imperative for the country as well as a moral and political one.

Bill sponsor Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., called the report "a huge momentum boost for immigration reform." 

The White House also lauded the CBO report, saying the numbers are "more proof that bipartisan commonsense immigration reform will be good for economic growth and deficit reduction."

And Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican who has worked to woo conservative support for the bill, said in a statement that the report "further confirmed what most conservative economists have found: reforming our immigration system is a net benefit for our economy, American workers and taxpayers." 

Opponents of the bill argue the influx of new foreign workers would hurt Americans still affected by joblessness. 

The Senate is currently debating the legislative language of the bill offered by the bipartisan "Gang of Eight."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has said he wants a final vote on the bill in the upper chamber by the July 4 recess. 

But lawmakers are still making amendments to the legislation, which many Republicans say cannot survive to the president's desk without substantial changes to its border security provisions. 

This story was originally published on Tue Jun 18, 2013 5:08 PM EDT

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio on Sunday said the comprehensive immigration reform bill is almost "ready to go" but still needs substantial border security fixes, dismissing accusations from conservative critics that he has been manipulated by veteran Democratic lawmakers in their efforts to pass the bill. 

"I think it's an excellent starting point, and I think 95, 96 percent of the bill is in perfect shape and ready to go," he said of the bill, which is being debated in the Senate this month. "But there are elements that need to be improved."

Asked about rhetorical jabs from some immigration reform opponents during an appearance on ABC's "This Week," Rubio dismissed conservative commentator Ann Coulter's charge that he is "being played" by Sen. Chuck Schumer, another member of the bipartisan "Gang of Eight" that drafted the original legislation. 

"Quite frankly, I don't even know what that means," he replied. 

"I recognize there is a division among conservatives about [immigration reform.] I respect other people's views on it," Rubio added. "I understand why they are frustrated by it. I just hope people understand that the reason why I've undertaken this is because this is a major problem that's hurting our country."

The Florida Republican, who has said the comprehensive bill will not pass without the beefed-up border security requirements, declined to engage in "hypotheticals and ultimatums" about whether he could vote for the bill without those fixes.  

"I think the debate now is about what that border security provision looks like," he said. "And if we do that, this bill will have strong bipartisan support. If we fail, we're going to keep trying, because at the end of the day, the only way we're going to pass an immigration reform law out of the House and Senate so the president can sign it is, that it has real border security measures within it."

On CNN's State of the Union program Sunday, Rubio's "Gang of Eight" colleague Sen. Bob Menendez, D-N.J. said that negotiators are open to more specificity on the border plan but that its "triggers" must not impede the bill's path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. 

"I would simply say to our colleagues we are open, if you want greater specificity about what that border plan looks like, we're open to that," he said. "But what we cannot have and what I cannot support and what I believe the community cannot support at the end of the day is that we're going to have triggers that can never be achieved in terms of border security as an impediment to the pathway to legalization and citizenship.

And the New Jersey lawmaker warned that, without embracing that legalization plan, Republicans will face political extinction.

'The road to the White House comes through a road with a pathway to legalization," he said. "Without it, there'll never be a road to the White House for the Republican Party."

Speaking to religious conservatives Friday, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush said that welcoming immigrants to the United States will be an economic boon because they are hard-working, family-oriented and “more fertile.”

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Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush speaks at the Faith & Freedom Coalition conference on June 14 in Washington.

"Immigrants create far more businesses than native-born Americans,” Bush said in remarks to the Faith and Freedom Coalition in Washington D.C. “Immigrants are more fertile, and they love families, and they have more intact families, and they bring a younger population. Immigrants create an engine of economic prosperity."

Bush, who is mulling a 2016 bid, also argued that there are too few young people paying into a system to support a larger number of older Americans because native-born fertility rates are going down. 

While Bush’s arguably awkward phrasing earned Twitter jabs, data shows that immigrants do have a higher fertility RATE than women born in the United States.

According to 2011 data from the National Center for Health Statistics, the birth rate for foreign-born women is substantially higher than that of U.S. born women, at 87.8 births per 1,000 women aged 15-44. (It was 58.9 for women born in the United States.)

In fact, the Pew Research Center calculated that, in 2010, about 23 percent of all births in the country were to mothers born abroad, even though only about 13 percent of the total population was foreign-born. 

But it’s also worth noting that the immigrant birth rate dropped sharply  -- down 13 percent -- between 2007 and 2010.

This story was originally published on Fri Jun 14, 2013 11:40 AM EDT

While proponents of immigration reform are bracing for a tough fight this summer, most have remained generally optimistic that the political climate is finally right for the passage of a comprehensive bill. 

The American electorate as a whole? Not so much.

A new poll from Quinnipiac University shows that seven in ten registered voters think that Republicans and Democrats in Congress will not be able to work together to pass an immigration bill this year.

Hispanics and Democrats are slightly more optimistic, with about a third of each group saying that the bill will get to the president’s desk. But only 24 percent of voters overall said they believe that Congress can pass the legislation. 

But while voters are pessimistic about its passage, the poll also showed that a majority supports the compromise bill’s foundational principle of a “path to citizenship.”  Fifty-four percent said undocumented immigrants living in the United States should be able to remain in the country and eventually apply for U.S. citizenship.  Twelve percent said undocumented individuals should be able to stay but should not be eligible to become citizens; 29 percent believe undocumented immigrants should not be able to stay in the U.S. at all.

A bipartisan bill passed through the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this month by a 13-5 vote and will be taken up on the Senate floor in June. But the fate of various immigration measures in the Republican-controlled House is still unclear.

Voters overall in the Quinnipiac poll were evenly divided on the question of whether a candidate’s support for a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants would make them more or less likely to support him or her, while 44 percent of voters said the candidate’s position would not affect their support. But nearly half of Hispanics said a candidate’s support for a path to citizenship would make them more likely to support that candidate.

The poll surveyed 1,419 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. 

This story was originally published on Fri May 31, 2013 10:33 AM EDT

During to the 2012 presidential campaign, Republicans made this argument to Latino voters when talking about immigration reform: It was President Obama’s fault why any reform wasn’t signed into law during the president’s first term.

"I think one of the reasons Candidate Obama got so much support from the Hispanic community in the [2008] election is that he said in his first year, among his highest priorities would be to fix the immigration system," Mitt Romney said at a Univision-sponsored town hall in Sept. 2012. "But he never even filed a bill. He never tried to fix the immigration system."

The line of attack might have been somewhat unfair -- after all, Republicans in Congress who had previously supported comprehensive immigration reform backed away, even when it came to the more limited DREAM Act. And the president did take executive action to no longer deport qualified young illegal immigrants.

Still, the argument was something the GOP could wield to Latino voters (who still broke to Obama by a 71 percent-to-27 percent margin in 2012).

But after the Senate Judiciary Committee passed the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” immigration reform legislation by a 13-to-5 vote, and now as the bill heads to the Senate floor with prospects for passage likely, Republicans might not be able to use that argument any longer.

If the legislation goes down to defeat, Republicans would get the lion’s share -- if not all -- of the blame.

And that reality could provide the GOP with an additional incentive to help pass immigration reform, especially when the legislative action moves to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives.

"The onus is on the Republicans,” says Frank Sharry, a liberal-leaning immigration reform advocate. “If reform tanks, Republicans can try all sorts of excuses -- the president didn’t want to upset the unions, the Democrats demanded too much, the bill was too big and wouldn’t have worked -- but these won’t work outside the conservative media bubble."   

Indeed, Democrats have already swallowed omitting an amendment that would have granted immigration rights to gay and lesbian couples. Organized labor and big business are in agreement on the legislation. And Obama has largely remained on the sidelines to give Congress more breathing room to negotiate.

A Senate Republican aide whose boss supports immigration reform agrees that Republicans would be blamed for defeat of the immigration legislation.

"It would have negative ramifications for the party, absolutely.”

Yet the GOP aide adds that if the Senate “Gang of Eight” legislation gets as many as 70 Senate votes, it would force House Republicans to take up legislation -- even if it’s not supported by a majority of the caucus.

"The goal here with this effort is to get upward of 70 votes,” the aide said. “It would put pressure on them to engage and not find a reason to say no."

That said, getting 70 votes isn’t sure thing; it would require ensuring that the legislation attracts enough Senate Republicans without losing Democratic votes.

Perhaps more importantly, conservative opponents see no political upside to achieving immigration reform. Their argument: While they might get blamed for the legislation’s defeat, they would get little benefit from the bill’s passage.

"There is no evidence to support this idea that Republicans will pick up a lot of votes if we give amnesty to 11 million folks," Rep. Tim Huelskamp (R-Kan.) recently said, according to Reuters.

There’s also the possibility these members could receive conservative backlash from their constituents if they support the legislation.

And that’s the challenge for House Speaker John Boehner. What’s a bigger concern for him -- upsetting his conservative members or the party potentially getting blamed for the legislation’s defeat?

For now, he says the House “will work its will.”

“We’re not going to be stampeded by the White House or stampeded by the president,” Boehner told reporters last week. “The Senate is working its will, a lot of good work that’s gone on over there, but the House — the House will work its will.”

Drew Angerer / The New York Times via Redux Pictures

Supporters of immigration reform cheer after the Senate Judiciary Committee approved legislation to overhaul the nation's immigration laws on Tuesday.

A sweeping bill to overhaul the nation's immigration system cleared its first major hurdle late Tuesday night, with the 18-member committee charged with completing a first round of legislative edits voting to advance the amended bill to the full Senate.  

The vote in the Senate Judiciary Committee was 13-5.  

Three Republicans - Sens. Jeff Flake of Arizona, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Orrin Hatch of Utah -- joined the panel's 10 Democrats to vote in favor of the bill. 

Flake and Graham are both members of the bipartisan "Gang of Eight" that originally drafted the 844-page immigration legislation. Hatch's support was won after the Utah lawmaker secured changes to the bill's provisions for the hiring of high-skilled foreign workers.  

Five Republicans - Sens. Ted Cruz and John Cornyn of Texas, Chuck Grassley of Iowa, Mike Lee of Utah and Jeff Sessions of Alabama -- voted against the legislation. 

The measure will now head to the Senate floor. 

In a statement, President Barack Obama - who has made the passage of immigration reform the top legislative goal of his second term -- lauded the committee for its "open and inclusive process" and said the legislation as approved is "largely consistent with the principles of commonsense reform I have proposed." 

"I encourage the full Senate to bring this bipartisan bill to the floor at the at the earliest possible opportunity and remain hopeful that the amendment process will lead to further improvements," he said. 

Florida Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, who does not serve on the panel but is a crucial player in wooing fellow conservatives to support the bill, similarly praised the committee but noted that "work still remains to be done."

"Immigration reform will not become law unless we can earn the confidence of the American people that we are solving our immigration problems once and for all," he said, adding that he is "optimistic" that the bill can be satisfactorily improved on the Senate floor. 

On Tuesday, the top Republican in the upper chamber affirmed that he will not block the immigration proposal from being debated by the full Senate.

“I think the Gang of Eight has made a substantial contribution in moving the issue forward," Sen. Mitch McConnell told reporters. "I’m told that the Judiciary Committee hasn’t in any fundamental way undone the agreements that were agreed by the eight senators, so I’m hopeful we can get a bill that we can pass here in the Senate.”

In an emotional moment shortly before final passage, committee chairman Patrick Leahy of Vermont announced that he would not call for a vote on an amendment that would have recognized the marriages of same-sex spouses in immigration law. 

Republicans in the bipartisan Gang of Eight said the LGBT measure would have broken apart the fragile coalition crafted by the bill's drafters. 

As written, the bill would open a 13-year path to citizenship for qualified undocumented immigrants, establish a new program for low-skilled temporary workers, require new border security strategies and implement a nationwide employment verification system. 

Conservatives who oppose the reform proposal say that it fails to secure the border adequately and does not do enough to prevent a new wave of illegal immigration into the country.

Throughout five days of marathon work sessions, senators on the panel tweaked the bill's provisions for modifying immigrant worker programs, tracking foreign nationals who overstay visas and implementing new border security measures along the nation's southern border. 

But Flake and Graham -- the two Republican members of the Gang of Eight who serve on the committee - joined with Democrats to vote down amendments deemed a threat to the "Gang of Eight" compromise.

When the final vote was announced, attendees in the hearing room broke into cheers of "Si se puede!" and "Yes we can!" 

This story was originally published on Tue May 21, 2013 8:04 PM EDT

A new study from the conservative Heritage Foundation estimates that granting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants will cost US taxpayers at least $6.3 trillion. 

Heritage Foundation scholar Robert Rector co-authored the long-anticipated study, which is sure to be cited frequently by foes of the immigration reform effort as lawmakers take up legislation to overhaul the nation’s system. 

But the study also drew swift criticism from Republicans supporting the reform effort, who called the Heritage Foundation's estimate politicized, exaggerated and flawed in its methodology. 

The $6.3 trillion calculation derives from the federal benefits Rector and co-author Jason Richwine believe an estimated 11 million newly legalized immigrants will receive over their lifetimes versus the taxes they will pay.

A summary of the report, for example, states that "former unlawful immigrants together would receive $9.4 trillion in government benefits and services and pay $3.1 trillion in taxes, for a lifetime 'fiscal deficit' - at minimum -- of $6.3 trillion (total benefits minus total taxes.)" 

Those benefits, the study states, will eventually include means-tested welfare benefits and health care as well as Social Security payments. 

The report's authors acknowledge that their estimated price tag concentrates only on the citizenship piece of proposed immigration reform legislation rather than estimating the costs of the massive bill as a whole. But they argue that the economic benefits of a comprehensive reform that includes a path to citizenship would still be minimal compared to cost of "amnesty."

"No sensible thinking person could read this study and conclude that over 50 years that this could possibly have a positive economic impact," said Heritage president and former senator Jim DeMint at a press conference unveiling the study. 

Under the Gang of Eight proposal that was introduced in the Senate last month, qualified undocumented workers could pay fines and back taxes to become eligible to apply for a probationary legal status that -- after 10 years, more fines and a clean criminal record – can be adjusted to legal permanent residency and ultimately citizenship.

During that probationary status, previously undocumented immigrants would not be eligible to receive federal benefits like welfare.

But Rector states that, because the average age of an undocumented immigrant is just 34 years old, the accumulated benefits after these individual become citizens will far outweigh their contributions to the economy. 

That’s a calculation that others in conservative community dismiss, including economists like Doug Holtz-Eakin and policy analysts at the Cato Institute who dispute the Heritage Foundation’s methodology and say that the estimate fails to take into account the cumulative effects of immigration reform on America’s economy. 

In a conference call sponsored by the Bipartisan Policy Center, former Mississippi governor and onetime RNC head Haley Barbour slammed Heritage's report as a "political document" designed to scare off Republicans inclined to support comprehensive reform. 

"That Heritage is trying to kill this in the crib now, I think, is a political statement that they know that this is going to be a movement for reform that’s going to get stronger and stronger because it’s truly good policy," he said. 

And Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican member of the Senate's Gang of Eight, took to Twitter to blast the study shortly after its release. 

"Here we go again," he wrote. "New Heritage study claims huge cost for Immigration Reform. Ignores economic benefits. No dynamic scoring."

This story was originally published on Mon May 6, 2013 11:37 AM EDT

As most Americans slept, the Senate bipartisan Gang of Eight formally filed the long-awaited “Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Bill of 2013,” releasing a flood of responses from pro-reform groups that had been waiting for the legislative text.

Clocking in at 844 pages, the legislation proposes a 13-year path to citizenship for qualified undocumented immigrants along with ambitious goals to secure the nation’s southern border and a realignment of legal immigration systems to favor more employment-based visas.

After 2 a.m. Wednesday morning, the bill was posted online in its entirety. (you can read it here)

A bipartisan House group that has been working behind the scenes on its own compromise bill applauded the upper chamber’s legislation and said it hopes to reach its own agreement “soon.”

“We believe we will soon agree on a reasonable, common-sense plan to finally secure our borders and strengthen our economy with a tough but fair process that respects the rule of law so immigrants can contribute to our country,” said the group, which includes eight members of Congress. “While we have made substantial progress, we continue to work diligently towards a bill that keeps America strong, competitive and true to our values.”

The statement was signed by Democrats Xavier Becerra and Zoe Lofgren of California,  Luis Gutierrez of Illinois and John Yarmuth of Kentucky; and Republicans John Carter and Sam Johnson of Texas, Mario Diaz-Balart of Florida, and Raul Labrador of Idaho.  

Groups like the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, the National Council of La Raza (NCLR) and the Congressional Hispanic Caucus also praised the bipartisan spirit of the effort and expressed optimism about the legislative process.

The Chamber, which was heavily involved in negotiating a compromise on temporary workers with labor union AFL-CIO as the bill was being drafted, praised the proposal for including its goals for border security measures, worker visa expansions, a path to citizenship and an E-Verify system.

“There is no doubt that there will be additional input and analysis through Senate hearings and amendments, and we look forward to being part of that needed process,” the Chamber wrote in a statement.

NCLR, a top Latino group, similarly applauded the “courage” of the Senate members for working across party lines.

“This legislation, while not perfect, is a monumental step forward in ensuring that this nation has a fair, humane and effective 21st-century immigration policy that serves our nation’s best interests and works for all Americans, including families, workers and businesses,” wrote NCLR president Janet Murguía

Stakeholders will work to tweak the legislation to address their particular concerns as the bill wends its way through Congress. Civil liberties groups are wary of the employment verification system, and many pro-citizenship groups (in sync with the White House) have expressed skepticism in the past about the idea of security “triggers” that must be met before the legalization process can begin for undocumented immigrants.

The bill will also be strongly opposed by those who say the measure rewards lawbreakers, harms American jobs and costs too much during an economically perilous era.

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 17, 2013 10:23 AM EDT

Drafters are racing to complete the text of a comprehensive immigration reform bill slated to be unveiled on Tuesday, with minor loose ends causing some in the Senate’s Gang of Eight to urge a delay to presenting the sweeping legislation.

But, with pressure growing after multiple missed deadlines for the completion of the reform bill, sources within the group tell NBC News that the proposal is still likely to be formally presented in a press conference tomorrow.

The Senate Judiciary Committee was expected to hold its first hearing on the legislation on Wednesday, but that has now been postponed to Friday. An additional hearing will be held next Monday as well. 

Senate Republicans and Democrats have yet to be briefed on the legislation in their respective formal meetings. The bill includes the opportunity -- if certain border security criteria have been met -- for qualified undocumented immigrants to obtain probationary legal status for 10 years before becoming eligible to apply for a visa.

Republicans are expected to meet tonight at 5:45 pm to review the plan within their own conference. (Lead GOP negotiator Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida was originally scheduled to brief his colleagues last week, but lengthy discussion of pending gun legislation pushed the presentation off the agenda.)At noon on Tuesday, Republicans also plan to sell the plan to outside conservative interest groups.

Democrats have yet not scheduled an internal briefing but would likely share the bill with colleagues during a regularly scheduled Tuesday lunch meeting tomorrow.  

With the caveat that negotiators still need to review and agree on legislative language, two key Senate lawmakers said Sunday that a deal on a comprehensive immigration reform bill is close but not complete after a breakthrough in talks between business and labor groups this weekend. 

"With the agreement between business and labor, every major policy issue has been resolved on the Gang of Eight," said Democrat Sen. Chuck Schumer, one of the eight Senate leaders working on the legislation, during an interview on NBC's Meet the Press. 

Noting that the group has pledged not to come to a final agreement until legislative language is finalized, Schumer said he is "very, very optimistic" that the group of lawmakers will have a deal by next week. 

Republican Jeff Flake of Arizona, also a member of the Gang, agreed that lawmakers will be focused on the exact wording of the bill. 

"We've still got a ways to go in terms of looking at the language and making sure that it's everything we thought it would be," Flake said on NBC. "But we're closer, certainly." 

Another member of the group, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said on CNN that negotiators have a 'conceptual' agreement.

"It’s got to be written up," he said. "We haven’t signed off; there’s a few details yet. But conceptually, we have an agreement between business and labor, between ourselves. It has to be drafted. It will be rolled out next week"

After the Chamber of Commerce and the AFL-CIO reached an agreement on the parameters of a guest worker program -- one of the main holdups in the negotiations -- Republican Sen. Marco Rubio warned that reports of an overarching Gang of Eight deal were "premature." 

Schumer said Sunday that Rubio's statement did not indicate any kind of disagreement within the Senate group. 

"As Senator Rubio correctly says, we have said we will not come to final agreement until we look at all the legislative language, and he's correctly pointing out that language hasn't been fully drafted," Schumer said. "There will be little kerfuffles but I don't think any of us expect there to be problems."

Rubio, the son of Cuban immigrants whose biography and conservative credentials make him a key GOP voice on immigration, also wrote in a letter to Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Patrick Leahy and again in a press statement early Sunday that proponents should not rush the legislation to passage. 

"Arriving at a final product will require it to be properly submitted for the American people’s consideration, through the other 92 senators from 43 states that weren’t part of this initial drafting process," Rubio said. "In order to succeed, this process cannot be rushed or done in secret.”

Flake echoed that sentiment Sunday, pledging that the draft legislation will be amended in the Senate Judiciary Committee process and on the Senate floor.

"There will be input, there should be input," Flake said. "It will make it a better product." 

Schumer rejected the notion that Rubio could break from the Gang of Eight over concerns about the process.

"He is protecting some of the things that he thinks are very important in the bill, but I don't think that will stand in the way of any final agreement," Schumer said. "I think we're all on track."

Calling Rubio is "extremely important" to the bipartisan coalition, Flake said he's confident that the Gang of Eight will remain united. 

"I think that we'll stick together as a Gang," he said. "And I hope that we can pull some Republicans our way. I think a number of them are with us already." 

This story was originally published on Sun Mar 31, 2013 10:19 AM EDT

The Service Employees International Union – one of the major labor groups working for an immigration overhaul – has launched a new ad advocating for a reform plan that includes a path to citizenship.

The ad, called “America,”  is part of a $300,000 buy that will run on national cable, says SEIU. It is the organization's first television ad pushing for immigration this year – and the second buy (SEIU bought time for Spanish-language radio ads last month.)

The 30-second spot depicts a diverse group of people repairing a broken flagpole and hoisting an American flag as a narrator urges Congressional action on immigration reform.

“With back taxes paid, English learned and a real path to citizenship,” the narrator says.  “No half measures.  Let’s fix it once and for all." 

This story was originally published on Tue Mar 26, 2013 11:17 AM EDT

This story was originally published on Mon Mar 25, 2013 11:57 AM EDT