HOUSTON -- At this weekend's National Rifle Association Convention, Carrie Bradshaw met Annie Oakley.

On display in the 9-acre firearms expo alongside Civil War-era antique guns, black AR-15 rifles and camouflage-patterned hunting gear? Pink rifles and hand guns, "Concealed Carrie" purses with hidden handgun pockets, and "Flashbang" holsters that attach to the front or side of a bra.

"We kinda started this because we didn't want women to have to dress like a man to be able to carry a gun," said Taylor Johnston, a Flashbang Holsters sales representative. "We want them to look feminine, look good, and still feel safe.

Leslie Deets modeled her concealed carry purses on high-end designers.

"It looks like a Coach bag," she said, adding that she named her "Concealed Carrie" company after the leading character in HBO’s "Sex and the City" because "Leslie just didn't have the same ring to it."

Retail options aside, the NRA is stepping up its outreach to women after facing criticism in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shootings that killed 20 elementary school children and 6 adults in December. At the convention, they offered a luncheon, cocktail hour and pistol shooting course just for women.

In February, they hired Natalie Foster -- who founded the blog "Girls Guide to Guns" -- to assist with NRAWomen.tv, a website promoting ways to “explore, connect, celebrate and unite with the women of the NRA.” Sections include “Armed & Fabulous,” and “Refuse to be a Victim.”

"The NRA is definitely making an effort to really let our voices be heard," Foster said.

Adrees Latif / Reuters

A pink assault rifle hangs among others at an exhibit booth at the George R. Brown convention center, the site for the NRA annual meeting in Houston on May 5, 2013.

There's a political motive: The GOP is concerned about wooing female voters, and women overwhelmingly favor stricter gun laws. An April NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 65 percent of women favor more restrictions, compared to just 44 percent of men. Among women with children living at home, support runs even higher.

That's an overwhelming gender gap that could cause a problem for the NRA. The group claims 5 million members, but just a fraction of them are women. Foster said the NRA has a goal of reaching 500,000 women members by 2014 -- so right now, women make up less than 10 percent of the organization. More than half of the electorate, of course, are women.

The gun lobby helped defeat a Senate gun bill that would have expanded background checks to cover all commercial gun sales -- a less aggressive measure than banning assault weapons and a policy that polls show most Americans support.

NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre drove the convention with aggressive rhetoric on that issue -- he said that President Barack Obama's background check bill "ordered the law-abiding to participate in a maze of regulation that could criminalize lawful firearms transactions and potentially create a massive government list of every gun-owning citizen in the country."

But Foster took a notably softer tone in her interview with NBC News.

"When it comes to expanding background checks, we all want people to be safer. These laws that have been proposed recently have not been effective to that end, unfortunately," Foster said. "We all want people to be safer, we all want to protect our children. That is absolutely critical in our society."

From the beginning of the post-Newtown focus on gun control, Republicans -- with behind-the-scenes advice from groups like the NRA -- have put women front and center in their fight against new restrictions. At the first major hearing on gun control after Newtown, Republicans invited Gayle Trotter of the Independent Women's Forum to testify -- and she told the committee stories about women who used guns to protect themselves.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., underscored the point, arguing that women need high capacity magazines to appropriately defend themselves.

"My basic premise is that one bullet in the hand of a mentally unstable person or a convicted felon is one too many. Six bullets in the hands of a mother protecting her twin 9-year-olds may not be enough," he said.

That, in turn, drew a response from Vice President Joe Biden, who told a Google hangout he would advise his wife to use a shotgun, instead.

"You don't need an AR-15," he said. "Buy a shotgun. Buy a shotgun."

Biden is continuing to push for new gun control laws. Supporting him are groups like Moms Demand Action, which had members protesting the NRA Convention. They argue that women want more restrictions, and are planning a week of activism surrounding the upcoming Mother's Day holiday.

"I think every mother knows where she was when she heard about Newtown," said Michelle Green, who heads the Houston chapter. "It resonated so much and mothers want to take care of their children."

Related stories:

• 'Stand and fight': NRA convention gets call to arms for 2014 election
• Republican politicians pay tribute to NRA clout at annual meeting

This story was originally published on Tue May 7, 2013 12:27 PM EDT

HOUSTON -- The National Rifle Association is calling its members to arms for what they say is the next battle in a prolonged war to protect gun rights: the 2014 congressional elections.

"We are in the midst of a once-in-a-generation fight for everything we care about," NRA chief executive and vice president Wayne LaPierre told the gun lobby's membership on the second day of its annual convention. The motto this year is "Stand and Fight."

Gun owners'  freedom, LaPierre said, "is on the line and never more on the line than right now and through the 2014 congressional elections."

LaPierre, a legendary figure in the gun-control wars, has been leading the charge against the first sustained push for new gun laws in nearly two decades -- sparked by the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School, where 20 children and 6 educators were killed.

Last month, a bill that would have expanded background checks to gun show and Internet sales failed in the Senate. Democrats couldn't get 60 votes for the compromise proposal, with an overwhelming number of Republicans voting "no." 

There were Democrats who opposed it, too: Sens. Mark Begich of Alaska and Mark Pryor of Arkansas, both up for reelection in 2014, as well as freshman Sen. Heidi Heitkamp. Sen. Max Baucus voted against it, and announced his retirement just days later.

It was a lobbying victory that even the organization's president acknowledged seemed far-fetched in the emotionally charged post-Newtown era, when gun-control advocates were angling for much stiffer laws, such as bans on so-called assault weapons and high-capacity magazines. Those measures went down too -- and in much more overwhelming fashion than the hard-fought background checks.

At the convention, outgoing NRA leader David Keene called the defeat of background checks "quite an accomplishment -- an accomplishment that few of us would have predicted back in January."

'Wall of Guns' raffle
Two floors below the speakers' hall, stalls showcasing guns, ammunition and firearms accessories from more than 500 retailers were spread out across nearly nine acres of space. One retailer hawked antique guns from the Civil War era -- a Colt revolver was on sale for nearly $5,000. Another company had a simulated shooting range. And Cabela's, the sporting goods store, sponsored a "Wall of Guns" raffle. 

Wandering through the exhibits were, the NRA claims, more than 70,000 attendees from across the country. The group said it expected record attendance and boasted that it now had more than 5 million members overall.

While polls show overwhelming numbers of Americans support broader background checks, the NRA members at the Houston convention largely didn't share that view.

"Why should we pay through extra legislation, through extra hassle to be a law-abiding citizen?" said Martin Baker, a first-time convention attendee from Winfield, Kan.

"You're not going to ever stop [gun violence] with a band-aid," said Larry Alders, 64, who has been an NRA member since he was 16.

In his speech, LaPierre linked the gun-control debate to the aftermath of the Boston bombings, arguing that as police searched for an armed suspect in a place where guns are heavily regulated, residents were sheltered in place with no means to defend themselves.

“How many Bostonians wished they had a gun two weeks ago?" LaPierre asked the crowd. It was the first time the NRA connected the Boston bombing with the gun control debate.

A day earlier, a parade of conservative politicians -- including former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, former presidential candidate Rick Santorum and Texas Gov. Rick Perry -- assailed Obama and cast the fight over gun control as part of a broader culture war.

"This is about what kind of people we are and what kind of country we want to be," said Palin, who stood at the podium in a black-and-pink t-shirt featuring moose antlers and the slogan "women hunt." Cruz bragged about his filibuster of gun legislation and received a standing ovation. Back in the Senate, even his GOP colleagues had urged him and others who joined him not to be too public in their protests.

Fight isn't over
Across the street from the convention hall, a handful of protestors stood in a nearby park and read the names of 4,000 victims of gun violence. Mayor Michael Bloomberg's group, Mayors Against Illegal Guns, helped organize gun control supporters to attend the convention -- including two relatives Newtown victims. 

"My kids safety trumps your gun rights," read one sign.

Bloomberg, who's spending millions on ads promoting gun control, was himself a frequent target at the convention. LaPierre labeled him a "national nanny." 

There was only one thing the two sides could agree on: the fight over guns isn't over.

"I am in this for the long haul," said Neil Heslin, whose 6-year-old son Jesse was killed in Newtown. On Friday, he said, he had a long phone conversation with Pryor, the Arkansas senator, urging him to change his "no" vote if a background check bill comes up again.

The NRA, meanwhile, showcased the next generation. "Our future depends on young NRA members,” said Chris Cox, the NRA’s chief lobbyist.

The youngest lifetime NRA member in attendance? Three-year-old Elaia Wagen, whose adoptive parents said her grandfather paid the $1,000 that it takes to buy the membership.

"Being a member of the NRA,” her mother, Brook Wagen, said, “for me and my daughter -- and for my sons -- is teaching them they have to protect their freedoms." 

Related: 

• NRA annual meeting convenes as gun-control debate rages
• LaPierre: 'We will never surrender our guns'
• Rick Perry's target practice video is the talk of NRA meeting

President Barack Obama vowed Thursday during a trip to Mexico to continue pushing for new, tighter gun control rules in the United States, saying his proposals’ recent defeat in Congress was “just the first round.”

Speaking following a meeting with Mexican President Enrique Peña Nieto, whose country has been ravaged by gang violence supported in part by gun trafficking into Mexico, Obama vowed to return to the issue of gun control in the United States.

Henry Romero / Henry Romero / Reuters

President Barack Obama and Mexico's President Enrique Pena Nieto speak during a news conference after attending a bilateral meeting at the National Palace in Mexico City May 2, 2013.

“The last time we had major gun legislation, it took 6, 7, 8 tries to get passed,” Obama said at a press conference following his meeting with the Mexican president. “Things happen somewhat slowly in Washington, but this is just the first round.”

Democratic leaders in the Senate were forced to shelve a bipartisan proposal expanding background checks for firearms sold online and at gun shows when it failed to receive the requisite 60 votes to survive a filibuster threat. The measure’s Democratic proposal, West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin, has vowed to fight to bring that proposal back up for another vote.

And in an article published Wednesday, the proposal’s Republican author, Pennsylvania Sen. Pat Toomey, suggested that politics were afoot in many GOP senators’ decision to oppose the package.

“There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it," Toomey told local newspaper editors.

Congress is away from Washington this week for a scheduled recess, but the issue of guns has followed members back to their states and their districts. Gun control advocates have aired ads targeting key senators for their votes in their respective states, and Democratic groups have trailed New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte throughout her state this week to put public pressure on the first-term senator for her vote during public town hall meetings.

The president and his allies are relying on the fact that public opinion is largely on their side when it comes to the specific gun proposals being floated by the administration.

“When you've got 90 percent of the American people supporting the initiatives that we put forward … I believe that eventually we're going to get that done, and I'm going to keep on trying,” he said. 

This story was originally published on Thu May 2, 2013 6:37 PM EDT

Frank Thorp / NBC News

Erica Lafferty, daughter of Sandyh Hook Elementary School victim Dawn Hochsprung, attends a town hall meeting with Senator Kelly Ayotte in Warren, N.H., on Tuesday.

WARREN, N.H. – Bringing the national gun debate to a tiny New England town on Tuesday, the daughter of the slain principal of Sandy Hook Elementary confronted Sen. Kelly Ayotte at the lawmaker’s first town hall meeting since she voted against expanded background checks on all commercial gun sales.

Erica Lafferty, who first met with the Republican senator in Washington earlier this month after she opposed the compromise negotiated by Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Pat Toomey, R-Pa., was visibly angry as she spoke into the microphone at the meeting, which drew more than 100 people who came to condemn or support Ayotte’s vote.

"You had mentioned that day the burden on owners of gun stores that the expanded background checks would harm. I am just wondering why the burden of my mother being gunned down in the halls of her elementary school isn't more important than that," said Lafferty, whose mother Dawn Hochsprung was gunned down by Newtown shooter Adam Lanza.

Ayotte responded at the Warren, N.H., meeting: "Erica, I, certainly let me just say -- I'm obviously so sorry."

"And, um, I think that ultimately when we look at what happened in Sandy Hook, I understand that's what drove this whole discussion -- all of us want to make sure that doesn't happen again," Ayotte said.

More tension followed at a larger event in Tilton, N.H., later in the day.

"Let the senator finish please!" said the moderator at the Tilton event as gun control advocates shouted from the crowd and waved signs which said "demand action to end gun violence," from Mayors Against Illegal Guns, New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg's gun control advocacy group.

Ayotte is one of a handful of senators -- others include Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., Dean Heller, R-Nev., Heidi Heitkamp, D-N.D., and Max Baucus, D-Mont. -- who are facing withering criticism from both sides of the debate.

Gun control proponents want the Senate to reconsider new gun laws, and pro-gun rights groups want the issue kept off the table. And they’re using ads, lobbying, and organizing at events like Ayotte’s town halls to get their points across.

Keeping center stage are the Newtown families, many of whom were on Capitol Hill for the failed gun vote, who have pledged to continue the fight for new regulations on firearms.

The senator's staff were prepared for the onslaught. Ayotte defended her vote at the top of her remarks in both towns, pointing to her background as a prosecutor. “Where we are right now, my focus has been on wanting to improve our current background check system,” she said. “Frankly, we have fallen down on actually prosecuting gun crimes and violations of our current background check system.”

She said that addressing mental health and keeping guns out of the hands of the mentally ill were important going forward.

Outside groups are focusing on Ayotte and others from swing states where polls show background checks are popular. From the TV and radio ads to these small events, both sides are mobilizing like it's a political campaign --  Bloomberg's group circulated printed signs reading "#ShameOnYou" at both town meetings, while Ayotte supporters held the kind of mass-hand-drawn signs often spotted at presidential events.

Poll data is also a focus -- and a point of contention. Some automated polls, which NBC News does not rely on, have shown surveys claiming dropping numbers for people who voted against expanding background checks.

But in the Granite State, Ayotte's supporters are pointing to a recent survey from the University of New Hampshire that shows just the opposite: high approval ratings in the wake of the vote.

Some Republican defenders in the state say that the controversy isn't real and say it won't matter in 2016, when Ayotte is up for reelection to the Senate.

"To the extent it's a controversial issue it's a manufactured one," said Fergus Cullen, a former chairman of the state Republican Party.

There's evidence to support the claim that some groups are using the issue to raise their profiles. In a yard nearby the Warren event, a local resident had placed a large, staked lawn sign with the handwritten message, "Thank You Senator Ayotte." Atop one corner was the Tea Party's preferred flag, the yellow snake with the words "Don't Tread On Me."

But others say it was a difficult decision that could have repercussions down the road.

"I think it was a tough vote. And it was a principled vote," said Jim Merrill, a longtime New Hampshire Republican strategist who worked on Mitt Romney's presidential campaign. "And I think she understood that there would be some blowback for it. Let's just remember it wasn't just Republicans who voted against it."

Ayotte is clearly feeling the pressure, refusing to answer questions from national reporters at the meetings. Aides working on the gun issue on Capitol Hill say she's made it clear that she doesn't want to vote on it again any time soon.

And the atmosphere back home was a big change from Ayotte's typical town meetings -- generally staid affairs that begin with a PowerPoint presentation on the budget. (She does a lot of them, as she's pledged to hold a town hall in each New Hampshire county.)

She stuck with the PowerPoint at Tuesday's meetings, but this time, the opening slides had statistics defending her gun vote.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

Members of Moms Demand Action for Gun Sense in America enter the office of Sen. Kelly Ayotte on April 17 in Washington, D.C.

At town halls, Ayotte typically receives notecards with the name of each questioner and their pre-submitted topic of interest. A selected moderator chooses and reads them. This time, though, that caused a stir. Right before Erica Lafferty spoke in Warren, Eric Knuffke, of Wentworth, N.H., stood and demanded to be allowed a question.

"You can't deny people the right to speak because they haven't filled out a card. I have a question," Knuffke shouted. Supporters of Ayotte shouted back at him.

As Knuffke yelled, Lafferty was sitting in the front row with her hand raised.

"Let Erica speak," said one attendee. "There's a Sandy Hook survivor here," said another.

She had submitted a question in the pile, and Ayotte made sure to let her speak. Lafferty thanked Ayotte for meeting with her the day after senators took the vote on the Manchin-Toomey before challenging her for her vote. After her exchange with Ayotte, Lafferty stood and stormed out of the town hall.

Asked afterward why she had done so, Lafferty said: "I had had enough." 

 NBC's Frank Thorp contributed to this report. 

This story was originally published on Tue Apr 30, 2013 4:05 PM EDT

Four months and four days after the Newtown shootings, the U.S. Senate has indefinitely shelved major gun legislation. 

The move follows the 54-46 defeat of a compromise to expand background checks, the most critical of a series of amendments that failed to pass the Senate on Wednesday.

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid announced the decision on the floor Thursday. He said he spoke to President Barack Obama and the two agreed the best way to move forward was to “hit pause.”

“Yesterday, President Obama said it was a shameful day for the Senate, and it probably was,” Reid said. “But we should make no mistake. This debate is not over. In fact this fight is just beginning.”

But realistically, Senate aides privately say, the issue is done with for now. Even pieces of the plan that might have passed with wide bipartisan support -- making gun trafficking a federal crime, improving school safety and addressing mental health -- will be set aside.

"This was a real emotional, everybody was involved," said Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., who led efforts for a compromise on background checks. "They’ll look at it and take a little time, take a breather and make a decision."

Manchin said his compromise would have passed the Senate if the National Rifle Association hadn't threatened to dock lawmakers' grades with the organization if they voted for the amendment.

"If it wasn't scored, it would get 70," Manchin said.

Now, the political reckoning begins. Gun control advocates -- from the president on down -- were angry with Wednesday's outcome and urged Americans to keep up pressure on lawmakers who voted against it.

"Speaking is physically difficult for me. But my feelings are clear: I’m furious," former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords wrote in a New York Times opinion piece published after the vote. Giffords was shot at a Tucson grocery store as she met with constituents in 2011.

Win Mcnamee / Getty Images

Father of Sandy Hook Elementary School shooting victim, Mark Barden introduces President Barack Obama as former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, Vice President Joe Biden and family members of the Newtown shooting victims look on in the Rose Garden of the White House on April 17, 2013.

Of the senators who voted no, she wrote: "I’m asking citizens to go to their offices and say: You've disappointed me, and there will be consequences."

Visibly angry, Obama on Wednesday said even members of his own party voted out of fear of the gun lobby.

"A lot of Republicans had that fear, but Democrats had that fear, too.  And so they caved to the pressure, and they started looking for an excuse -- any excuse -- to vote 'no,'" Obama said.

Giffords' group, Americans for Responsible Solutions, insists they'll be a force in the upcoming 2014 elections, remembering this vote the same way the NRA will.

"It's a target-rich environment after yesterday, as we'd say in the military," Mark Kelly, Giffords' husband, told reporters at the National Press Club.

NBC's Kelly O'Donnell, Mike Viqueira and Ali Weinberg contributed to this report. 

Related story:

• First Thoughts: Why the gun measure was defeated

This story was originally published on Thu Apr 18, 2013 2:59 PM EDT

Despite an impassioned push by President Barack Obama and an emotional lobbying effort by the families of mass shooting victims, proponents of a compromise measure to expand gun background checks on Wednesday fell six votes short of passage in the Senate. 

The vote on the amendment was 54 to 46. Sixty votes were needed for the amendment to be adopted. 

The deal was the result of a deal struck between Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Democrat Joe Manchin of West Virginia. It would have extended existing background check rules to gun sales made online and at gun shows.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords and her husband and retired astronaut Mark Kelly join Sen. Joe Manchin and Sen. Pat Toomey in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill April 16, 2013 in Washington.

Speaking in the Rose Garden after the vote, a visibly frustrated Obama decried the defeat of the measure as parents of victims of last year's Newtown school shootings and former congresswoman Gabby Giffords looked on. 

"All in all, this was a pretty shameful day for Washington," he said sternly, urging backers of gun control to continue the fight. 

Slamming critics who said that victims were used as "props," Obama said that their voices and experiences should have been welcomed, adding that gun lobbyists "willfully lied" about the consequences of the background check measure. 

As the bill was defeated, Patricia Maisch -- a survivor of the Tuscon shooting that targeted Giffords -- yelled "Shame on you!" from the Senate gallery. 

After the vote, Maisch said outside the chamber that she screamed when she realized the amendment had been defeated. 

"They need to be ashamed of themselves," she said. "I think the ones who voted no ... they have no soul. They have no compassion for the experiences that people have lived through, gun violence, who have had a child or a loved one murdered."

Although backed by many victims of gun violence, including the Newtown families, the legislation was vehemently opposed by the National Rifle Association, who said it infringed on the rights of gun owners. 

In a statement, NRA-ILA executive director Chris Cox applauded the proposal's defeat: "This amendment would have criminalized certain private transfers of firearms between honest citizens, requiring lifelong friends, neighbors and some family members to get federal government permission to exercise a fundamental right or face prosecution," he said. "As we have noted previously, expanding background checks, at gun shows or elsewhere, will not reduce violent crime or keep our kids safe in their schools."

Four Republicans -- Sens. John McCain of Arizona, Susan Collins of Maine, Mark Kirk of Illinois and amendment author Toomey -- broke with the rest of the GOP to support the background check legislation. 

Four Democrats -- Sens. Max Baucus of Montana, Mark Begich of Alaska, Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota and Mark Pryor of Arkansas -- voted against it. 

Those Democrats are now the targets of liberal groups vowing to advertise their 'no' votes. In a statement shortly after the defeat, Progressive Change Campaign Committee co-founder Stephanie Taylor slammed the four defectors. 

"Today, the Senate voted against the 91% of Americans who support background checks to stop gun violence," she said. "We'll be holding accountable Democrats who voted against their constituents by running ads in their states, featuring some of the 23,000 gun owners who have joined our campaign for common sense gun reform."

Also on Wednesday, the Senate voted down an amendment backed by Sen. Dianne Feinstein of California that would have banned "military-style" assault weapons; it was voted down 40 to 60. By a similar margin, a proposal to limit high-capacity ammunition magazines was also defeated. 

Opposition to changing the gun laws in previous weeks was so intense that some questioned whether the background check measure would even come to a vote Wednesday. Gun control backers won a surprisingly robust  bipartisan victory on a procedural vote last week that allowed debate on the background check deal.

Much of the momentum that fueled that brief victory was credited to the parents and relatives of children killed in the Newtown shootings last year. Newtown families lobbied extensively on the Hill, reportedly bringing several lawmakers to tears with deeply personal stories of the grief caused to their families when a lone gunman mowed down 20 children and six adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School. Some of the Newtown family members were present in the Senate gallery when the background check amendment was defeated. 

Giffords, who narrowly escaped death after being shot in the head in 2011, and her husband Mark Kelly slammed senators for "ignoring the will of the American people."

"We will use every means possible to make sure the constituents of these senators know that their elected representatives ignored them, and put Washington, D.C., special interest politics over the effort to keep their own communities safer from the tragedy of gun violence," they said in a statement.

Vice President Joe Biden, who has led the White House’s effort on the gun legislation after the Newtown shooting, presided over the Senate for the vote. 

Speaking during a White House-organized Google Hangout earlier Wednesday, Biden appeared to acknowledge that defeat was likely but assured supporters that victory was not lost forever. 

“If we don't get it today, we'll get it eventually,” he assured gun control supporters. 

"I see this as just Round One," Obama said in his Rose Garden remarks. 

Related stories:

• First Thoughts: Background check measure expected to fall short
• Senate background check compromise in peril as GOP opposition grows

NBC's Mark Murray contributed to this report. 

This story was originally published on Wed Apr 17, 2013 12:48 PM EDT

Background-check measure expected to fall short in the Senate… Vote takes place at 4:00 pm ET… Manchin: “We will not get the votes today”… Striking that something polling 90% can’t get 60 votes… Home Alone, Mark Sanford edition… Measuring Bush 43 in the polls… Who has left the greater imprint on today’s GOP -- Bush or Ron Paul?... Two ways to read the new poll on Anthony Weiner… And MA SEN race grinds to a halt.

*** Background-check measure expected to fall short: The news out of Boston continues to overshadow politics in Washington, DC. On Thursday, President Obama travels to Boston to speak at an interfaith service dedicated to those who were killed at wounded at Monday’s marathon. What’s more, observers remain puzzled at how little investigators know about who detonated the bombs near the race’s finish line. And yesterday, there was a new scare when a letter addressed to Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS) was found to contain the dangerous substance believed to be ricin. (The Boston bombings and letter incidents don’t appear to be related.) Yet slowly but surely, American politics is returning to the national news -- and it does so later this afternoon with a crucial 4:00 pm ET vote on the Manchin-Toomey compromise amendment on background checks. And right now, it’s expected that the amendment will fail to get the 60 votes needed for passage, which could imperil the rest of the Democratic-backed gun-control legislation in the Senate.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Shooting victim and former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., and her husband and retired astronaut Mark Kelly, right, join Sen. Joe Manchin, D-W.V., and Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., in the Hart Senate Office Building on Capitol Hill April 16, 2013.

*** Manchin: “We will not get the votes today”: Even the amendment’s authors are admitting that the measure won’t get the needed 60 votes. Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) tells NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell, "We will not get the votes today" -- despite appeals from Newtown families, former Rep. Gabby Giffords, and public polls showing broad support. Manchin adds that the few votes he hoped to attract are out of reach due in part to political concerns: Manchin says Sens. Jeff Flake (R-AZ) and Marco Rubio (R-FL) are both so out front on immigration that they cannot risk taking on a second battle with their own conservative base on guns. And Manchin notes that Sen. Rob Portman (R-OH) is also already extended politically as the only Republican senator to support gay marriage. Manchin pessimism also comes after NBC’s O’Donnell reported that Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) would be a “no” on the amendment.

*** Manchin’s office walks back the senator’s remarks: But Manchin’s press office just released this statement: “Sen. Manchin remains optimistic and hopeful that if Senators and the American people read the bill, they will support his commonsense approach... So far Sen. Manchin has managed to garner support from an A-rated NRA member and three Republican Senators as well as 90 percent of his own party. With a record like that, I see no reason to bet against Sen. Manchin today. He will continue to explain his bill to his colleagues and anyone with concerns until the minute they vote.”

*** Striking that something polling 90% can’t get 60 votes: As things stand right now, per NBC’s Kasie Hunt, the MOST support the measure could get is 60 votes -- if you count all 55 Democrats and the five Republicans who support it or who haven’t said they oppose it (Collins, Kirk, Toomey, McCain, Ayotte). But here’s the rub: Not all Democrats, especially those from red states, will back it. In fact, sources tell NBC’s O’Donnell that the amendment will likely fall four or five votes short -- and maybe more if others see it going down. Given the public opinion polls supporting background checks, it’s striking the measure won’t get 60 votes. Just read today’s New York Times piece on convicted felons who are able to purchase weapons online. “With no requirements for background checks on most private transactions, a Times examination found, Armslist and similar sites function as unregulated bazaars, where the essential anonymity of the Internet allows unlicensed sellers to advertise scores of weapons and people legally barred from gun ownership to buy them.” But senators are realists, and some of those fence-sitters probably were swayed NOT to take what they believed would be a risky vote because the House was unlikely to pass it. The thinking being: Why cast a vote that will create a potential political problem when the bill’s chances of ACTUALLY becoming law are so remote?

*** Home Alone, Mark Sanford edition: If you’re a divorced politician, there’s an iron-clad rule to follow as you’re running in a competitive race: Make sure your ex-wife is fully onboard. And there’s another rule to follow, too: Don’t trespass at the ex-wife’s house. (Actually, that’s an iron-clad rule for ANY divorced spouse, politician or not.) Per the AP, “Former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford must appear in court two days after running for a vacant congressional seat to answer a complaint that he trespassed at his ex-wife's home, according to court documents acquired by The Associated Press on Tuesday. The complaint says Jenny Sanford confronted Sanford leaving her Sullivans Island home on Feb. 3 by a rear door, using his cell phone for a flashlight. Her attorney filed the complaint the next day and Jenny Sanford confirmed Tuesday the documents are authentic. The couple's 2010 divorce settlement says neither may enter the other's home without permission. Mark Sanford lives about a 20-minute drive away in downtown Charleston.” We’re never ones who want to overstate things, but this news is potentially DISATROUS for Sanford’s political comeback. The special general election pitting Sanford and Elizabeth Colbert Busch takes place on May 7.

*** Measuring Bush 43: George W. Bush has been in the news recently -- he’s a new grandfather, he granted an interview to the Dallas Morning News, and next week he hosts all the living presidents at the dedication of his presidential library in Dallas, TX. With the former president back in the news, it’s worth noting that he has yet to experience a post-presidency honeymoon, according to our most recent NBC/WSJ poll. Just 35% view him favorably, versus 44% who view him negatively. Those numbers are virtually unchanged from the five other NBC/WSJ polls that have measured him since the summer of 2010, although they're an improvement from when he left office (31% fav/58% unfav). Yet buried inside Bush's poll numbers is a striking finding: He fares well among the demographic groups that have favored Republicans, including defeated 2012 presidential nominee Mitt Romney, and he performs poorly among the demographic groups with whom Republicans have struggled. The subgroups that have a positive view of Bush are Republicans (65%/14%), conservatives (60%/19%), seniors (48%/31%), rural Americans (43%/35%), Southerners (43%/37%), and whites (40%/39%). But he is deeply unpopular among most other subgroups, including the biggest parts of Obama’s coalition -- 18-34 year olds (26%/46%), African Americans (19%/64%), and Latinos (27%/44%). In other words, if you want more evidence of the Republican Party’s demographic strengths -- and demographic weaknesses -- look no further than these poll numbers.

*** Who has left the bigger imprint on today’s GOP -- Bush or Paul? Speaking of dedications for former Texas politicians, former Rep. and presidential candidate Ron Paul (R-TX) holds a press conference with his supporters at 3:00 pm ET in D.C. to inaugurate the Ron Paul Institute for Peace and Prosperity. Given these dueling events -- separated by just one week -- it is worth asking: Which Texas politician has left a greater imprint on today’s GOP: Bush or Paul? By the way, Paul’s son Rand speaks this morning with reporters at the Christian Science Monitor breakfast.

*** Two ways to read that new poll on Anthony Weiner: There are two ways to read the new NBC New York/Marist poll on New York’s mayoral race. The first, as most news outlets have played it, is that former Rep. Anthony Weiner (D-NY) would immediately start out in second place if he runs, trailing presumed front-runner Christine Quinn, 26% to 15%. But there’s a second way to read it: Weiner, with nearly perfect name ID, is getting just 15%. More from Marist: “Among Democrats, 46% are open-minded about a Weiner candidacy while 50% would not consider voting for him for mayor.  Five percent are unsure. Among all registered voters, 40% say that they would consider voting for him. But, 52% would not, and 8% are unsure.”

*** MA SEN race grinds to halt: Finally, we have the first contribution from our newest colleague Jessica Taylor, who writes about the MA SEN race in light of Monday’s bombings in Boston. “With just two weeks to go until primaries in the Massachusetts Senate special election, campaigns on both sides have come to a screeching halt after Monday’s tragic Boston Marathon bombing. It’s too soon to say when active politicking from any candidate may resume ahead of the April 30 primary, but ultimately the stop in campaigning may not make a difference in the final outcome of either the primary or the general election contest on June 25.”

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Prospects for Senate gun legislation dimmed early this week as a number of Republicans announced that they wouldn't support a compromise to expand background checks to gun show and Internet sales. Now, the architects of that compromise are offering to retool it in order to attract new support from rural state senators.

Sens. Joe Manchin, D-W.Va., and Pat Toomey, R-Pa., were considering tweaking their bipartisan compromise so that people who live in rural areas - far away from places that can easily perform background checks with the current federal system - would be exempt from new background check requirements.

The changes could appeal senators like Mark Begich, Democrat of Alaska -- and possibly his home state Republican colleague, Lisa Murkowski, Senate aides said.

During a meeting Tuesday afternoon on Capitol Hill with victims of the 2011 shooting in Tucson, Vice President Joe Biden told victims that they were two votes shy of the 60 votes needed to advance the Manchin-Toomey deal.

The tragic events in Boston have shifted attention away from the Senate gun debate. A vote on the expanded background check amendment has been pushed back to at least Thursday -- and possibly until next week. The delay also could give Manchin and Toomey more time to court votes for their compromise measure.

Senate aides said Tuesday that they were still trying to work out how the upper chamber’s rules might accommodate that. Democratic Majority Leader Harry Reid said Tuesday morning on the Senate floor that he had yet to reach an agreement with Republicans that would allow voting to begin on the gun bill.

A vote on the expanded background check amendment has been pushed back to at least Thursday -- and possibly until next week. That could give Manchin and Toomey more time to shore up support for their compromise.

A series of Republican senators on Monday said that they would not support the Manchin-Toomey compromise -- including Arizona Sen. Jeff Flake, a personal friend of former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.

This development has left Democrats scrambling to find the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster on the expanded background check amendment. According to an NBC News analysis of gun bill votes, Senate leaders still don't have the votes they need to attach the amendment -- limiting the chances that the upper chamber will pass meaningful new gun laws.

Meanwhile on Tuesday, former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords was on Capitol Hill lobbying lawmakers to pass a background check bill. She planned to appear at an afternoon event dedicating a room in the Capitol to Gabe Zimmerman, one of her aides on the Hill, who was killed in the Tucson shooting where she was wounded.

NBC’s Mike Viqueira and Frank Thorp contributed to this report.

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• Details of sweeping Senate immigration plan revealed

This story was originally published on Tue Apr 16, 2013 12:52 PM EDT

Women are a key driver of support for legislation overhauling the nation's gun and immigration laws, according to new data in the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll, just as Congress prepares to take up major legislation on both of those issues.

Women outpace men in their support for stricter gun laws and immigration reform that provides undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship, data which becomes more salient in light of the Republican Party’s effort to regain its footing with women voters after last fall’s elections.

View full poll results here

The gender gap is most pronounced when it comes to the issue of stricter gun controls, legislation on which the Senate voted to begin consideration this Thursday.

Sixty-five percent of women said they favor stricter laws governing the sale of firearms, versus just 5 percent who favor less strict laws. Twenty-seven percent of women said the law should be kept as it is now. By comparison, 44 percent of men favor stricter gun laws, while 41 percent said laws should stay the same.

(Also of note: Self-described mothers favor stricter gun laws even more overwhelmingly; 70 percent of mothers with children in the home said that laws governing firearm sales should be tightened.)

While the gap is less pronounced, women respondents in this month’s NBC/WSJ poll were more sympathetic to arguments in favor of comprehensive immigration reform.

Women favor immigration reform that allows a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants by a 36-point margin. Sixty-seven percent of women said they would favor such a proposal, versus 31 percent who would oppose those reforms. Men also favor immigration reform, but by a slightly slimmer, 60 percent to 38 percent spread.

When explained that a pathway to citizenship would involve paying a fine, any back taxes, passing a security background check and taking other measures, men and women would favor immigration reform at roughly the same levels: Seventy-eight percent of women favor such a proposal, versus 74 percent of men.

The gender gap also extends to some high-profile social issues at the forefront of American political debate at the moment, like same-sex marriage.

In the poll, women favor allowing gay and lesbian couples to marry, 56 percent to 40 percent. Men, by contrast, favor allowing same-sex marriages, 50 percent to 43 percent. (That's a relatively seismic shift for men; in the March 2004 NBC/WSJ poll, just 26 percent of men favored gay marriage, while 52 percent opposed.)

The poll was conducted April 5-8, and has a 4.3 percent margin of error for the subsample of women, and a 4.5 percent margin of error for the subsample of men.

Joshua Lott / Getty Images

Mark Kelly leans his head on the shoulder of his wife and former Congresswoman Gabby Giffords as they attend a news conference asking Congress and the Senate to provide stricter gun control in the United States on March 6, 2013 in Tucson, Arizona.

For former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, gun violence is personal -- so she's going to begin her own in-person push for a new compromise to expand background checks for gun sales when she returns to Capitol Hill next week, NBC News has learned.

And the gun safety group she founded with husband, Mark Kelly, will begin making robocalls Thursday in Pennsylvania and West Virginia, looking to support the two senators who crafted the deal -- an attempt to demonstrate that the organization is committed to challenging the gun lobby's political infrastructure.

The National Rifle Association’s grassroots power is near-legendary, but in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., massacre, gun safety groups have tried to demonstrate that politicians should be worried about — and able to rely on help from — the other side, too.

"We are going to be there for the lawmakers who listen to the over 90 percent of Americans who support an expanded background check system. We recognize that up until now, the influence and power around this issue has been on the other side," said Pia Carusone, spokeswoman for Americans for Responsible Solutions. "Those days are over and we are going to be carefully watching the votes over the next few weeks."

The push from Giffords comes at a critical time for gun legislation in the Senate. The legislation cleared a critical hurdle Thursday as senators voted to open debate on a bill that would expand background checks, make gun trafficking a federal crime, and provide more funding for school safety.

But an important test comes with the vote on the background check compromise. Democratic leadership aides say they expect the tally on the background check amendment to reflect whether they'll win final passage of a gun bill.

Giffords, who was shot in the head as she met with constituents at a Tucson Safeway supermarket in January 2011, had already planned to be in Washington to dedicate a meeting room in the Capitol in honor of aide Gabe Zimmerman, who was killed in the shooting that wounded her.

She plans to ask for meetings with a number of Republicans — and Democrats — who the group believes might be open to supporting the background check compromise amendment to the gun legislation. Senators Pat Toomey and Joe Manchin announced their compromise proposal on Wednesday.

The new language still needs to be added to the bill, as its first amendment, and Democrats plan to try and vote to add it to the bill early next week.

Also next week, Kelly is set to give a speech at the University of Pennsylvania, where he'll praise Toomey's efforts.

In the meantime, the robocalls supportive of Toomey will target voters in suburban Philadelphia, a swing area where gun control is popular. In West Virginia, calls will go to white, male voters over 30, particularly those identified as veterans and gun owners.

"Hi, I'm Mark Kelly -- combat veteran, astronaut, and most importantly, husband to my brave wife Gabrielle Giffords. I'm calling to thank your senator, Joe Manchin, for working across party lines to sponsor critical legislation to protect the Second Amendment rights of West Virginians and to keep your families safe from gun violence," Kelly says in the West Virginia ad.

The calls urge recipients to contact Congress. Carusone said 185,000 robocalls are planned. The group will also email its grassroots supporters, which they say number 200,000.

Among the GOP senators who the Giffords group and other gun control advocates view as potential supporters: Jeff Flake of Arizona, Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Dean Heller of Nevada, Susan Collins of Maine, and Johnny Isakson and Saxby Chambliss of Georgia.

There are, however, a number of Democrats who might oppose the bill: Sens. Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Kay Hagan of North Carolina, Mark Begich of Alaska, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana and Max Baucus of Montana. Pryor and Begich voted "no" on the motion to open debate on guns.

Related:

Gun bill clears key Senate hurdle with bipartisan support

Newtown passion moves Senate vote on guns

A new gun control law cleared a major Senate hurdle Thursday, with 16 Republicans voting with most of the chamber’s Democrats to begin the process of moving one of President Barack Obama’s top domestic initiatives through a long, legislative slog.

Senators voted 68 to 31, with a handful of Republicans joining most Democrats, on a procedural measure to begin consideration of a proposed gun law that would expand background checks for gun sales, and strengthen mental health and school safety programs.

The vote is just the opening step, though, of a debate that could stretch out for weeks and encounter any number of obstacles – namely, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives – before reaching Obama’s desk.

Thursday’s vote comes on the heels of a bipartisan Senate agreement on Wednesday on expanding background checks, the centerpiece of gun control advocates’ effort to strengthen rules on firearms following the December 2012 shooting at an elementary school in Newtown, Conn.

Two senators – Democrat Joe Manchin from West Virginia and Republican Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania – struck an agreement that would extend existing background check rules to gun sales made online, and at gun shows. (Manchin and Toomey said their plan would be offered as the first amendment to the underlying gun bill which senators called up today.)

Win Mcnamee / Getty Images

Sen. Joe Manchin speaks on the phone outside the weekly Democratic policy luncheon on April 9 in Washington.

While their accord prompted renewed hope of bipartisan action to advance new gun laws for the first time in years, their proposal (along with several other gun measures slated for consideration by Congress) still face stiff resistance from conservative Republicans and the influential gun rights lobby, the National Rifle Association.

The NRA released a letter late Wednesday saying it was “unequivocally opposed” to the new gun rules, including the Manchin-Toomey proposal. Their declaration may weigh heavily on lawmakers seeking the NRA’s support – or, at the very least, avoid being targeted by the group – in their re-election efforts next fall.

“Given the importance of these issues, votes on all anti-gun amendments or proposals will be considered in NRA’s future candidate evaluations,” wrote their chief lobbyist, Christopher W. Cox, in a letter to members of Congress.

And a group of Republican senators have vowed to slow down the legislation by offering a multitude of amendments to the gun legislation, and exhausting the hours of debate to which they are entitled for each amendment. Those conservative lawmakers are backed by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., who voted Thursday against even beginning formal debate on gun legislation.

First Read: Why immigration reform has a better chance than guns

"The senators who have vowed to filibuster this bill should be ashamed of their attempt to silence efforts to prevent the next American tragedy," said 33 family members of Newtown victims in a joint statement. "Their staunch opposition to sensible gun reform is an affront to the 26 innocent children and educators who were murdered in Newtown."

The Senate bill could also be undone by so-called “poison pill” amendments which Republicans could attach with the help of a few swing-state Democrats, but risk making the whole bill unacceptable to most other Democratic senators.

Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., highlighted a provision that would require states to recognize concealed carry permits from other states as an example of one such poison pill.

Nonetheless, the coming Senate debate will provide an exercise in posturing – both on the central proposal dealing with background checks, but also additional measures that are all but certain to fail, like a proposed renewal of the ban on assault weapons, and a ban on high-capacity magazine clips.

The debate will play out as new poll data showed that a majority of Americans generally favor stricter gun laws. A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released Thursday found that 55 percent of Americans favor gun laws, versus 34 percent who prefer to keep the laws as they are now. Nine percent of Americans prefer less strict gun laws.

The popularity of these proposals has been a key point of emphasis in the administration’s demand that these measures receive a vote in Congress.

“I know that some of these proposals inspire more debate than others, but each of them has the support of the majority of the American people,” Obama said on Monday in Connecticut. “All of them are common sense. All of them deserve a vote.”

But even if these proposals were to successfully emerge from the Senate, gun legislation faces an uncertain future in the House, where Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, has not pledged to bring up any Senate-passed bill for a vote.

“I think it's important for the Senate to do its work, and once they do their work we'll be happy to review it,” he said Wednesday on Capitol Hill.

At the same time, though, a bipartisan pair of House members is working on legislation which will mirror the Manchin-Toomey proposal, in hopes of winning organic support for this legislation in the House.

This story was originally published on Thu Apr 11, 2013 11:34 AM EDT