NBC/Marist poll shows it’s neck and neck in Virginia… McAuliffe 43%, Cuccinelli 41% among registered voters… Cuccinelli 45%, McAuliffe 42% among likely voters… Good news for McAuliffe: It’s early, he has room to grow, and the GOP’s fav/unfav is way upside down in the state… The bad news for him: The poll doesn’t show Cuccinelli with an ideological problem just yet… Voters are relatively down on the VA GOV field, but are upbeat about the state’s direction… Looking ahead to 2016 in Virginia: Hillary tops McDonnell, while McDonnell beats Biden… Separate NBC/Marist poll shows Christie crushing Buono, 60%-28% among registered New Jersey voters… Looking ahead to 2016, Hillary is ahead of Christie, but the New Jersey governor leads Biden… From Appalachian Trail to Comeback Trail: Sanford beats Colbert Busch, 54%-45%... And House committee holds Benghazi hearing at 11:30 am ET.

*** Neck and neck in Virginia: Six months out until Virginia’s gubernatorial contest, Democrat Terry McAuliffe and Republican Ken Cuccinelli are locked in a close contest, according to a new NBC News/Marist poll. McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, gets the support of 43% of registered voters and Cuccinelli, the state’s attorney general, gets 41%; 16% say they are undecided. That’s a different result from a recent Washington Post poll of the race, which had the Republican leading by five percentage points. But a deeper look in this NBC/Marist survey, and it’s clear Cuccinelli has a slight advantage. It starts with intensity: 53% of Cuccinelli backers strongly support him, versus 47% who express similar support for McAuliffe. What’s more, among likely voters -- not always the best way to measure a contest this far out -- Cuccinelli has a slight edge over McAuliffe, 45%-42%. The race also features a clear gender gap, with McAuliffe leading among female registered voters (50%-34%) and Cuccinelli ahead with men (49%-34%).

Patrick Kane / AP

Ken Cuccinelli, Republican candidate for governor of Virginia and Virginia attorney general, speaks during the 65th Annual Shad Planking Wednesday, April 17, 2013 at the Wakefield Sportsmen's Club in Wakefield, Va.

*** Good news, bad news: The good news for McAuliffe is that he has plenty of room to grow (44% of voters say they’re unsure/never heard of him, compared with 32% who say that about Cuccinelli). And the Republican Party is a potential drag for Cuccinelli: The GOP has a 37%-53% fav/unfav rating in the state, versus the Democratic Party’s 44%-46% score. Yet so far, before any negative advertising begins, the poll doesn’t show the party dragging Cuccinelli down -- his fav/unfav is 42%-27%. In addition, despite what some opinion leaders might believe, Cuccinelli doesn’t have an ideological problem right now, either. Per the poll, 27% say he’s too conservative, but a plurality of 39% think his ideology is just right. By comparison, 28% see McAuliffe as too liberal, and 33% say he’s just right. And the two men essentially run even on candidate-quality questions, although Cuccinelli has a slight edge on some of them, including ones where Democrats usually outperform Republicans.

-- Who better understands people like yourself? (Cuccinelli 34%, McAuliffe 30%.)
-- Who do you trust more to do what’s best for Virginia? (Cuccinelli 39%, McAuliffe 33%.)
-- Who is closer to you on social issues? (Cuccinelli 33%, McAuliffe 31%.)
-- Who cares more about the middle class? (McAuliffe 31%, Cuccinelli 30%.)
-- Who shares your values? (Cuccinelli 35%, McAuliffe 29%.)

*** Down on the gubernatorial field but upbeat on the state’s direction: Strikingly (and perhaps not surprisingly), only 52% say they are satisfied with the field of gubernatorial candidates in Virginia. That’s compared with 61% who say that it in New Jersey (more on that gubernatorial contest down below). That said, all the state’s politicians are pretty popular. Republican Gov. Bob McDonnell’s approval rating is at 61% (what scandal?); Cuccinelli’s approval rating as attorney general is at 51%; and President Obama’s approval in the state is at an equal 51%. What’s more, if McDonnell were allowed to run for re-election, he’d lead McAuliffe by 15 points, 51%-36%. And a whopping 61% believe the state is headed in the right direction. Bottom line: The state is in good shape, and the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe contest could largely come down to which candidate can do a better job of selling that he would follow the Warner-Kaine-McDonnell path -- the conservative attorney general or the former DNC chair? It’s clear voters don’t really want change. It’s why when you look at this survey, everything points to the GOP holding the slight advantage as the party in power.

*** Looking ahead to 2016: And our NBC/Marist poll has some fun 2016 numbers to chew on when it comes to Virginia. In a hypothetical matchup, Hillary Clinton leads McDonnell in the state by 11 points, 52%-41%. Let those numbers sink in -- despite McDonnell’s 61% approval rating, he trails Clinton by double digits. However, in a hypothetical contest against Vice President Biden, McDonnell leads, 49%-42%. That said, nearly six-in-10 (58%) don’t want McDonnell to run for president. The NBC/Marist poll of Virginia was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,095 registered voters (margin of error of plus-minus 3.0 percentage points) and 692 likely voters (plus-minus 3.7 percentage points).

*** In New Jersey, Christie is crushing his Dem opponent: In this year’s other gubernatorial contest -- in New Jersey -- Republican Gov. Chris Christie leads his Democratic challenger Barbara Buono by more than 30 points among registered voters, 60%-28%, according to a separate NBC/Marist poll. Strikingly, 42% of Obama voters are supporting the incumbent governor. What’s more, 69% approve of Christie’s job performance, and 82% back his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy. Meanwhile, 56% of registered voters approve of President Obama’s job in the state, and 46% approve of Sen. Bob Menendez’s (D-NJ) job.

*** Christie and his party, and Christie and 2016: The poll also explains why Christie is disagreeing with his national party some of the time. The GOP’s fav/unfav in the survey is 34%-59%, versus the Democratic Party’s 50%- 43% score. Yet despite Christie’s sterling numbers in this political environment, Hillary Clinton tops him in a hypothetical 2016 contest in New Jersey, 52%-41%. But Christie beats Biden by pretty much the same margin, 51%-40%. That said, 55% of registered voters in New Jersey don’t want their governor to run for president. The NBC/Marist poll of New Jersey was conducted April 28-May 2 of 1,080 registered voters, and it has margin of error of plus-minus 3.0 percentage points.

*** From Appalachian Trail to Comeback Trail: Turning from future contests to last night’s contest, former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford (R) beat Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) in the special congressional election in South Carolina, 54%-45%.. MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor put it well: Sanford’s political career since ’09 has had plenty of ups and down -- “more ups and down than the mountains of the Appalachian Trail.” And his victory last night represented one of the ups. Interestingly, Sanford now comes to Congress owing nobody, and he has a bully pulpit at his disposal if he wants to use it. Yet the biggest takeaway from last night is that in today’s political climate, ideology trumps all. You could be a disgraced politician, and you could have been fined for breaking state ethics rules. But as long as you belong to the right political party in your state or district, you’re likely going to win. That said, Democrats are certainly trying to use this silver lining after their defeat: “House Republicans’ outreach to women voters now has Mark Sanford as the face. Republicans now have to defend him and stand with him until Election Day,” DCCC Chair Steve Israel said in a statement last night.

*** House committee holds Benghazi hearing: The final story we’re watching is today’s Benghazi hearing before the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee, which takes place at 11:30 am ET. The Washington Post: “Republican lawmakers, who have spent months seeking to tie President Obama to last year’s deadly attack on the U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, are increasingly focusing their probe on a new target: former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton. The GOP-led investigation of the Sept. 11, 2012, assaults that killed U.S. Ambassador J. Christopher Stevens and three others now centers heavily on the State Department and whether officials there deliberately misled the public about the nature of the assault.”

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HOUSTON -- At this weekend's National Rifle Association Convention, Carrie Bradshaw met Annie Oakley.

On display in the 9-acre firearms expo alongside Civil War-era antique guns, black AR-15 rifles and camouflage-patterned hunting gear? Pink rifles and hand guns, "Concealed Carrie" purses with hidden handgun pockets, and "Flashbang" holsters that attach to the front or side of a bra.

"We kinda started this because we didn't want women to have to dress like a man to be able to carry a gun," said Taylor Johnston, a Flashbang Holsters sales representative. "We want them to look feminine, look good, and still feel safe.

Leslie Deets modeled her concealed carry purses on high-end designers.

"It looks like a Coach bag," she said, adding that she named her "Concealed Carrie" company after the leading character in HBO’s "Sex and the City" because "Leslie just didn't have the same ring to it."

Retail options aside, the NRA is stepping up its outreach to women after facing criticism in the wake of the Newtown, Conn., shootings that killed 20 elementary school children and 6 adults in December. At the convention, they offered a luncheon, cocktail hour and pistol shooting course just for women.

In February, they hired Natalie Foster -- who founded the blog "Girls Guide to Guns" -- to assist with NRAWomen.tv, a website promoting ways to “explore, connect, celebrate and unite with the women of the NRA.” Sections include “Armed & Fabulous,” and “Refuse to be a Victim.”

"The NRA is definitely making an effort to really let our voices be heard," Foster said.

Adrees Latif / Reuters

A pink assault rifle hangs among others at an exhibit booth at the George R. Brown convention center, the site for the NRA annual meeting in Houston on May 5, 2013.

There's a political motive: The GOP is concerned about wooing female voters, and women overwhelmingly favor stricter gun laws. An April NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 65 percent of women favor more restrictions, compared to just 44 percent of men. Among women with children living at home, support runs even higher.

That's an overwhelming gender gap that could cause a problem for the NRA. The group claims 5 million members, but just a fraction of them are women. Foster said the NRA has a goal of reaching 500,000 women members by 2014 -- so right now, women make up less than 10 percent of the organization. More than half of the electorate, of course, are women.

The gun lobby helped defeat a Senate gun bill that would have expanded background checks to cover all commercial gun sales -- a less aggressive measure than banning assault weapons and a policy that polls show most Americans support.

NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre drove the convention with aggressive rhetoric on that issue -- he said that President Barack Obama's background check bill "ordered the law-abiding to participate in a maze of regulation that could criminalize lawful firearms transactions and potentially create a massive government list of every gun-owning citizen in the country."

But Foster took a notably softer tone in her interview with NBC News.

"When it comes to expanding background checks, we all want people to be safer. These laws that have been proposed recently have not been effective to that end, unfortunately," Foster said. "We all want people to be safer, we all want to protect our children. That is absolutely critical in our society."

From the beginning of the post-Newtown focus on gun control, Republicans -- with behind-the-scenes advice from groups like the NRA -- have put women front and center in their fight against new restrictions. At the first major hearing on gun control after Newtown, Republicans invited Gayle Trotter of the Independent Women's Forum to testify -- and she told the committee stories about women who used guns to protect themselves.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., underscored the point, arguing that women need high capacity magazines to appropriately defend themselves.

"My basic premise is that one bullet in the hand of a mentally unstable person or a convicted felon is one too many. Six bullets in the hands of a mother protecting her twin 9-year-olds may not be enough," he said.

That, in turn, drew a response from Vice President Joe Biden, who told a Google hangout he would advise his wife to use a shotgun, instead.

"You don't need an AR-15," he said. "Buy a shotgun. Buy a shotgun."

Biden is continuing to push for new gun control laws. Supporting him are groups like Moms Demand Action, which had members protesting the NRA Convention. They argue that women want more restrictions, and are planning a week of activism surrounding the upcoming Mother's Day holiday.

"I think every mother knows where she was when she heard about Newtown," said Michelle Green, who heads the Houston chapter. "It resonated so much and mothers want to take care of their children."

Related stories:

• 'Stand and fight': NRA convention gets call to arms for 2014 election
• Republican politicians pay tribute to NRA clout at annual meeting

This story was originally published on Tue May 7, 2013 12:27 PM EDT

The “Seinfeld” special election in SC… Sanford vs. Colbert Busch is entertaining, but it means absolutely nothing for 2014 or 2016… What will decide the close race: GOP and African-American turnout… Polls close at 7:00 pm ET… A sign for 2016? Chris Christie has weight surgery… When will the budget negotiations truly begin?... Republicans vs. Republicans on immigration… Democrats vs. Democrats on guns… And Benghazi surfaces again.

*** The “Seinfeld” special election: On the one hand, you couldn’t dream of a more entertaining and colorful special congressional election featuring a disgraced politician (Republican former South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford) and the sister of comedian Stephen Colbert (Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch). On the other hand, it’s a race that appears to signify, well, nothing, especially as it relates to 2014 and 2016. If Sanford wins -- in a district where Mitt Romney beat President Obama by 18 percentage points, 58%-40% -- it will be due simply to the district’s GOP tilt. And if Colbert Bush wins, it will be due simply to Sanford’s flaws and past baggage. As political observer Charlie Cook writes, “If Sanford wins by any kind of margin, it means that Republican voters simply held their noses and voted for him anyway. If Colbert Busch wins, it most likely means that a lot of Republicans chose to stay home rather than vote for either a candidate whom they thoroughly disapprove of or one with whom they thoroughly disagree.” Folks, this is the “Seinfeld” special election: It’s entertaining as heck, but it means absolutely nothing.

*** The two factors to watch: That said, the toss-up election hinges on two things. One, do Republicans and conservative voters turn out? If they do, Sanford is going to win; if they don’t, he’ll lose. Two, do African-American voters show up? “In the 2010 general election, African-American participation was about 18%. If it's that strong Tuesday, Colbert-Bush may win,” longtime GOP political consultant Richard Quinn told MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor. Polls close at 7:00 pm ET, and the congressional contest is to replace Republican Tim Scott, whom Gov. Nikki Haley (R) appointed to serve in the U.S. Senate.

Randall Hill / Reuters

Former South Carolina Governor Mark Sanford makes a point to the moderators during a debate with Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch in Charleston, S.C. April 29, 2013.

*** Sanford’s ups and downs: As MSNBC’s Taylor points out, Sanford’s political career “has had more ups and downs than the mountains of the Appalachian Trail.” Just consider: He was a one-time conservative star (and potential 2012 presidential candidate) bucking the Obama administration on the stimulus. Then he disappeared from the state in 2009, telling his staff he was hiking the Appalachian Trail -- only to be discovered that he was in Argentina with his mistress, whom he later called his “soul mate.” Sanford left office after paying an ethics fine for state travel. But a year later, his protégé -- Nikki Haley -- became governor. Then this year in 2013, he ran for his old House seat, winning the GOP run-off for the nomination. Afterwards, more adversity surfaced: An AP report showed that his ex-wife, Jenny Sanford, accused him of trespassing. Now? He finds himself in a toss-up contest. Later tonight, we’ll find out if Sanford truly revived his political career or if it’s officially over.

*** Christie weighing his options? New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie (R), who’s  up for re-election this year, told the New York Post that he secretly had "lap-band stomach surgery" to lose weight. From the article: "He told The Post he was thinking of his four kids and how it was time to start improving his health when he decided to have the procedure. 'I've struggled with this issue for 20 years,' he said. 'For me, this is about turning 50 and looking at my children and wanting to be there for them.'  He also insisted that, contrary to what observers may say, the effort to slim down was not motivated by thoughts of a presidential bid. 'It's so much more important than that,' he said." The Post adds that Christie checked into a surgery center on Feb. 16 -- under a false name -- to undergo the procedure.  If this isn’t a sign he’s thinking about running for president, we don’t know what is. Remember, Christie had previously said that his health was pretty good… In fact, he called himself one of the healthiest fat guys in the country. So if this is for health reasons, then he wasn’t totally forthright before. For what it’s worth, we know the issue of his weight has been discussed with him by supporters and consultants as a political issue, and that it’s something he needed to deal with in some form if he ever did decide to run for national office.

*** When will the budget negotiations truly begin? Yesterday, there were two interesting moving parts as it relates to budget debate. The first: President Obama golfed with two Senate Republicans (retiring Sen. Saxby Chambliss and Sen. Bob Corker) who are viewed as POTENTIAL partners on a possible budget deal. The second development: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, frustrated by Sen. Ted Cruz’s (R-TX) objection to go to a House-Senate conference on the budget, called the freshman senator “a schoolyard bully,” Politico reports. “‘My friend from Texas is like the schoolyard bully,’ Reid said. ‘He pushes everybody around and is losing, and instead of playing the game according to the rules, he not only takes the ball home with him but changes the rules. That way no one wins except the bully who tries to indicate to people he has won. We’re asking Republicans to play by the rules and let us go to conference.’” And these two moving parts raise this question: When do the budget negotiations, if they’re ever going to happen, begin? At a conference committee? (Republicans, despite their demand for regular order, appear to be resisting that. Not only on the Senate side, but House Republicans haven’t exactly been aggressive in trying to get the conference started.) So does that mean there will be formal talks outside of GOP leadership? That’s the White House hope. They have targeted the Georgia and Tennessee GOP senators (Isakson, Chambliss, Corker and Alexander) as credible negotiating partners. If the negotiations are going to occur, they need to start taking place soon. It’s now May.  

*** Republicans vs. Republicans on immigration: Immigration has become a political battle … solely on the right. NBC’s Carrie Dann: “A new study from the conservative Heritage Foundation estimates that granting a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants will cost US taxpayers at least $6.3 trillion. Heritage Foundation scholar Robert Rector co-authored the long-anticipated study, which is sure to be cited frequently by foes of the immigration reform effort as lawmakers take up legislation to overhaul the nation’s system. But the study also drew swift criticism from Republicans supporting the reform effort, who called the Heritage Foundation's estimate politicized, exaggerated and flawed in its methodology.” In fact, check out this comment from former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour (R): “The Heritage Foundation document is a political document; it’s not a very serious analysis… This study is designed to try to scare conservative Republicans into thinking the cost here is going to be so gigantic that you can’t possibly be for it.”

*** Democrats vs. Democrats on guns: Is Mayors Against Illegal Guns turning into the Club for Growth, or as First Read called them back in 2009, The Club for (Democratic) Growth? Politico reports that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s staff has tried to persuade the Bloomberg-backed group not to target vulnerable Democrats in red states on guns because it could lead to a shrinking majority or make it easier for a Republican takeover of the Senate. “It didn’t work,” Politico notes. “Ads from the Bloomberg-funded Mayors Against Illegal Guns are going up soon in Alaska, Arkansas and North Dakota — three states with Democratic senators who broke with the White House on last month’s background checks vote.”

*** Benghazi surfaces again: And speaking of political battles, the GOP-led House Oversight and Government Reform Committee will be holding a hearing on the Benghazi attack on Wednesday. And here’s the news that has already leaked out: “A small team of Special Forces operatives was ready to fly from Tripoli to Benghazi last year after Libyan insurgents attacked the U.S. mission there, but was told it was not authorized to board the flight by regional military commanders, according to a career State Department official scheduled to testify before Congress on Wednesday,” per NBC’s Lisa Myers. This career State Department official -- Gregory Hicks -- seems like a credible witness (though he’s represented by high-powered GOP lawyers Joseph diGenova and Victoria Toensing). The thing to watch on Wednesday is whether Hicks’ testimony reveals that all the attention on Benghazi is MORE than a politically motivated investigation into not only the Obama White House but also the Hillary Clinton-led State Department. At a minimum, one thing this investigation has revealed is that there was an attempt to change the initial talking points regarding what happened. Question now is who was pushing for this change at the time? Was it the White House or was it State? Seems like there is more evidence that this was a bigger issue for State than for the White House. Of course, within a few days, the talking points became out of date and moot.

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Will Israel’s strikes in Syria spur U.S. involvement?... On that “red line” and how Libya (and other conflicts) has shaped the administration’s thinking on Syria… Recapping Obama’s Ohio State commencement speech… Mark-up time for the “Gang of Eight” immigration legislation… Wrapping up the NRA conference… WaPo poll: Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe… Remember, candidates matter… Does Sanford’s GOP base show up tomorrow?… Steve King passes on IA SEN bid… And Jessica Taylor’s early look at the Top 10 House races to flip in 2014.

Uriel Sinai / Getty Images

Israeli Merkava tanks participate in a drill near the border with Syria at the Israeli-annexed Golan Heights on May 6, 2013.

*** Will Israel’s strikes in Syria spur U.S. involvement? The Washington Post on the weekend’s biggest news: “Israel’s reported airstrikes in Syria — and the threat of a retaliatory strike by the Syrian government — are likely to accelerate the decision-making of the Obama administration, which was already moving toward a sharp escalation of U.S. involvement in the two-year-old crisis. Senior officials said the deployment of U.S. troops to Syria remains unlikely, but they have indicated that a decision will come within weeks on options ranging from the supply of weapons to the Syrian rebels to the use of U.S. aircraft and missiles to ground President Bashar al-Assad’s air power by destroying planes, runways and missile sites inside Syria.” As NBC’s Andrea Mitchell noted on NBC’s “Weekend Nightly News,” Israel used American-made weapons and most likely had U.S. intelligence support to strike those Syrian targets. And, in an interview with Telemundo while the president was in Latin American, President Obama made it clear that the U.S. supports what he sees as Israel’s right to defend itself from what could be game-changing weapons. But remember, Israel is focused on what is essentially a side conflict with Syria, and that is Assad’s support of Hezbollah.

*** Red lines (don’t, don’t do it): On Sunday, the New York Times reported that administration officials realize the president’s previous “red line” comment on Syria -- which he made to one of your authors during an Aug. 2012 press conference -- was a mistake. That’s something we’ve reported on, but the Times goes into more detail: “‘The idea was to put a chill into the Assad regime without actually trapping the president into any predetermined action,’ said one senior official, who, like others, discussed the internal debate on the condition of anonymity. But ‘what the president said in August was unscripted,’ another official said. Mr. Obama was thinking of a chemical attack that would cause mass fatalities, not relatively small-scale episodes like those now being investigated, except the ‘nuance got completely dropped.’” Georgetown’s Daniel Byman argues that presidents should draw “red lines” that the U.S. will tolerate. “The muddle over the red line on Syria’s chemical weapons should make the Obama administration and its successors think twice before issuing similar public threats without considering what happens if the red line is breached or if an adversary continues committing atrocities that fall short of the line.

*** How Libya (and other conflicts) has shaped the administration’s thinking on Syria: The administration is leery of being pushed into doing something big in Syria too soon. Look for incremental ramping up, including direct arming of the rebels and continued diplomatic efforts to get Putin off of Assad’s side. One thing that colors the Obama administration’s decision-making in all of this is Libya. As “clean” of an operation and intervention as it was, the instability there is very much on the forefront of the Obama administration’s mind. Who fills the vacuum? Watching this administration manage the Arab Spring, don’t overlook how each event has impacted a later decision (from Iran to Egypt to Libya to Yemen and Syria). The experience in one country has colored the decision making going forward.

*** Recapping Obama’s Ohio State commencement speech: President Obama’s commencement addresses are always interesting to watch/read, because they offer additional examples of how he views U.S. government and society. They become the windows to his core ideological beliefs which, believe it or not, he rarely actually talks about in public. And his commencement address at Ohio State University yesterday was no exception -- he talked about the importance of community (over individualism) and an engaged citizenry.  “In the aftermath of darkest tragedy [in Boston, Texas, and Connecticut], we have seen the American spirit at its brightest. We’ve seen the petty divisions of color, class, and creed replaced by a united urge to help… That’s what citizenship is. It’s the idea at the heart of our founding—that as Americans, we are blessed with God-given and inalienable rights, but with those rights come responsibilities—to ourselves, to one another, and to future generations.” More Obama: “I will ask you for two things: to participate, and to persevere. After all, your democracy does not function without your active participation. At a bare minimum, that means voting, eagerly and often. It means knowing who’s been elected to make decisions on your behalf, what they believe in, and whether or not they deliver.”  

*** Mark-up time: The Senate Judiciary Committee this week is slated to mark up -- that is, add amendments at the committee level -- to the bipartisan “Gang of Eight” immigration-reform legislation. Politico: “Foes and friends of reform are set to offer a slew of amendments to the mammoth immigration bill this week as the Senate Judiciary Committee begins to mark it up. But observers believe that between Democrats, who hold the majority on the committee, and the two Gang of Eight Republicans who wrote the bill, it will emerge from committee largely unscathed. ‘I suspect it’ll come back [from committee] with a 13-5 margin, and that’ll be a tremendous momentum going to the Senate floor,’ said Frank Sharry, executive director of the pro-reform group America’s Voice.” On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Pat Leahy said, “I think the so-called ‘Gang of Eight,’ four Democrats, four Republicans, across the political spectrum, deserve an enormous amongst of credit for the work they've done. I met with them many times. And I think we can get it passed.

*** Wrapping up the NRA conference: NBC’s Tom Curry wrapped up Friday’s speeches at the National Rifle Association conference in Houston. Republicans -- including Ted Cruz, Sarah Palin, Rick Santorum, and Rick Perry -- “addressed the National Rifle Association’s annual meeting in Houston Friday, celebrating the defeat of gun legislation in the Senate, assailing the media, and offering a strong defense of the powerful lobbying organization,” Curry wrote. By the way, Politico reports how not a single Democrat spoke at last week’s NRA conference in Houston. The NRA -- the National Republican Association? It’s a concern some inside the organization have, and it’s why there have been so many mixed signals when it comes to where the NRA stood on certain issues, including expanded background checks. Some inside the NRA did want to work with their Democratic allies and forge some compromise (even if the NRA didn’t OFFICIALLY support it). These are folks who want the “R” in NRA to stand for “Rifle” and not “Republican.” But those folks have lost out as the NRA -- internally -- has become more partisan.

*** WaPo poll: Cuccinelli leads McAuliffe: As we and others have pointed out, this year’s Virginia gubernatorial race is a contest between two flawed candidates. But Ken Cuccinelli (R) has always had one advantage over Terry McAuliffe (D): He has a base, while his Democratic opponent doesn’t -- at least not yet. And that edge is evident in a new Washington Post poll, which has Cuccinelli ahead by five points, 46%-41%. “Among all registered voters, [Cuccinelli is] backed by 95 percent of Republicans, 73 percent of conservatives and 62 percent among white men. By contrast, compared with Obama’s win seven months ago, McAuliffe, the former Democratic National Committee chairman, is badly underperforming among key Democratic constituencies he would need to prevail — young voters, women, African Americans and those in the vote-rich areas of Northern Virginia.” The good news for McAuliffe? The poll found that barely 10 percent say they are following the campaign ‘very closely’ and that nearly half of the electorate says they’re either undecided or could change their minds.” Neither party is happy about its standard-bearer, but Cuccinelli is giving the GOP establishment a reason to believe since he’s executing a smart campaign so far. McAuliffe has work to do to get the Democratic establishment comfortable again

*** Another VA GOV poll coming out on Wednesday: By the way, there will be another poll coming out on the Cuccinelli-McAuliffe -- NBC/Marist surveys on Virginia and New Jersey, which we’ll unveil on Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown.”

*** Remember, candidates matter: Given the Washington Post poll, tomorrow’s special election in South Carolina, and the tighter-than-expected special Senate race in Massachusetts, it’s always important to remember this political truism: Candidates and campaigns matter. In Virginia, both Cuccinelli and McAuliffe are flawed, but which one has bigger flaws and which one is running a better campaign? In South Carolina, the only reason why the contest in this GOP-leaning district is competitive is due to Republican Mark Sanford’s past baggage. And in Massachusetts, one candidate right now is getting the buzz (Republican Gabriel Gomez), while the other hasn’t run a competitive race in a LONG, LONG time (Ed Markey).

*** Does Sanford’s GOP base show up tomorrow? Speaking of tomorrow’s special election in South Carolina, the Washington Post’s Cillizza sees Mark Sanford as the candidate with the momentum. “In conversations with Democratic and Republican strategists closely following the special election set for Tuesday in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, the consensus is that the former governor, not businesswoman (and sister of Stephen Colbert) Elizabeth Colbert Busch, is the candidate gaining momentum in the race’s final 48 hours.” The question we have is whether base Republicans show up for Sanford. That’s going to be the difference between him winning and losing.

*** King passes on IA SEN race: On Friday, Rep. Steve King (R-IA) became the latest Republican to say “no” to running for Iowa’s open Senate seat. “The best tool we have now is the majority in the U.S. House which functions mostly to keep the Leftist genie in the bottle. I cannot, in good conscience, turn my back on the destiny decisions of Congress today in order to direct all my efforts to a Senate race for next year, while hoping to gain the leverage to put the genie back in the bottle in 2015,” he said in a statement. And that raises the question: Just who will Republicans get to run in a contest that’s VERY IMPORTANT to their chances of winning a Senate majority in 2014?

*** Ten House races to watch for ’14: Finally, don’t miss Jessica Taylor’s very early look at the 10-top House seats likely to flip in 2014.

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And we’re off: Look at all of today’s (and this month’s) 2016 activity… Rubio takes incoming from the right and responds… Is Biden a 2016 long shot? Only if Hillary runs…. Hillary, Christie headline Clinton Global Initiative gathering in Chicago next month… Our weekly 2016 roundup… April jobs report: 165,000 jobs created, unemployment rate falls to 7.5% (and check out the upward revisions)… Previewing Obama’s speech in Mexico City… And a Senate race watch.

*** And we’re off: Yes, President Obama’s second term is just over 100 days old. And, yes, the 2014 midterms are still a whopping 18 months from now. But like it or not, the early jockeying, traveling, and speechifying for 2016 is now well under way. Tonight, both Vice President Biden and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) deliver remarks in Columbia, SC (Biden addresses the state Democratic Party’s Jefferson-Jackson dinner beginning at 7:30 pm ET, while Cruz speaks to the South Carolina GOP’s Silver Elephant event). Also today, Cruz, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, and other Republicans give speeches at the National Rifle Association’s confab in Houston, TX. Meanwhile, Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) finds himself on the cover of National Review (although not in a flattering way), and Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is on the cover of the Washington Monthly (with the title: “Should This Man Be President?”). Then are the other 2016-related events later this month: Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) speaks in Iowa (on May 10) and New Hampshire (May 20); Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker heads to the Hawkeye State (May 23); and Cruz addresses the New York Republican Party (May 29).

Jason Reed / Reuters

Senator Marco Rubio, R-Fla., part of the Senate's "Gang on Eight", speaks during a news briefing on Capitol Hill, April 18, 2013.

*** Rubio takes incoming from the right -- and responds: Speaking of the new National Review cover -- entitled “Rubio’s Folly” -- here’s the article by immigration-reform opponent Mark Krikorian: After the 2012 election, “the Republican establishment turns its hopeful eyes, once again, to so-called comprehensive immigration reform. The same senators who pushed such a bill in 2007, prominently including Republicans John McCain and Lindsey Graham and Democrat Chuck Schumer, are at it again. They have devised a plan that would ease the path to legality for illegal immigrants while making some gestures toward enforcement. But a new element this time around is Marco Rubio.” But the junior Florida senator has a response of sorts in a Wall Street Journal op-ed, defending the pillars of comprehensive immigration reform but also arguing that any shortcomings to the “Gang of Eight” legislation can be improved. “Since my colleagues and I introduced immigration legislation, intense public scrutiny has helped identify shortcomings and unintended consequences that need to be addressed. Many concerned citizens have gone a step further and offered specific ideas to improve it. This kind of constructive criticism is a positive force that should always be welcomed in the political process.”

*** Cover photo of Rubio edits out other Republicans: As an aside to that National Review cover of Rubio, which shows him surrounded by Sens. John McCain and Chuck Schumer, the liberal site Talking Points Memo has this scoop: “The photo on the cover appears to be stripped down version … missing some unlikely attendees at the event. Look closer over Rubio's shoulder and you'll spot anti-tax crusader and right-wing hero Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.” The full photo also includes GOP Sen. Jeff Flake.

*** Is Biden a 2016 long shot? Only if Hillary runs: Also today, with Biden traveling to South Carolina, the Washington Post runs a pretty tough piece on the current vice president. The title: “Biden ponders a 2016 bid, but a promotion to the top job seems to be a long shot.” From the article: “Biden clearly has the experience and gravitas to ascend to the presidency, but many Democrats say he may have been in Washington too long (since 1973) to win an election. He is President Obama’s governing partner yet is rarely seen as Obama’s heir apparent.” We agree that Biden is the longshot (and in fact most likely to run) if Hillary Clinton gets in the race. But if she doesn’t? It would be hard to call him a long shot, at least in a Democratic primary. Yes, Hillary’s absence would likely create a more crowded Democratic field -- with O’Malley, Andrew Cuomo, and others getting into the race. Yet it would be a leap to label Biden a long shot in that competition. Who would have a stronger base than Biden (especially if Obama endorses him)? Who would have better name ID? Of course, this is the reason why so many Democrats are pining for Hillary to run in 2016: The rest of the field isn’t as strong. But it’s not a given -- at least right now -- she gets in the race.

*** Hillary, Christie to headline Clinton Global Initiative gathering: As for Hillary, Politico reports that she and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will headline Bill Clinton’s Clinton Global Initiative event in Chicago on June 13-14. “The focus of the gathering … is on speeding up the United States' economic recovery and the nation's long-term outlook. But the short-term political outlook will be equally interesting, given that Clinton and Christie top most 2016 polls in their respective parties. It marks the first time Hillary Clinton will appear at CGI America, which has become a signature event in her husband's post-White House portfolio. The event will also feature Chelsea Clinton, Clinton ally and Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and a slew of business, labor and government officials.”

*** Our weekly 2016 roundup: And here’s a look at all the other 2016 news this week: Two polls showed (here and here) Hillary Clinton blowing away the competition, and EMILY’s List wants her to run… Andrew Cuomo signed a book deal to write his memoir, set to come out next year.  “This is a private book, not a government book,” he insists. But he added, “It’s going to be a book about my experiences, my thoughts, my thoughts about government and the role of government.”… Martin O’Malley signed a death-penalty repeal, making Maryland the 18^th state to abolish the death penalty…. In the Quinnipiac poll, Marco Rubio narrowly leads the GOP with 18%, followed by Jeb Bush 16%, Chris Christie 14%, Rick Santorum 9%.... National Review reported that Ted Cruz is likely to run for president… Rand Paul endorsed Mark Sanford… And Chris Christie’s out with his first ad of his reelection.

*** April jobs report -- 165,000 jobs created, unemployment rate ticks down to 7.5%: In non-2016 news, the April jobs report shows a big improvement from last month’s numbers. The AP: “U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in April, and hiring was much stronger in the previous two months than first thought. The gains trimmed the unemployment rate to a four-year low of 7.5 percent. The Labor Department report showed the job market is improving despite higher taxes and government spending cuts. In addition to the April gains, the government said employers added 138,000 jobs in March and 332,000 in February. That's 114,000 more over the two months.” Read that February number again: 332,000 jobs.

*** Previewing Obama’s speech in Mexico: NBC’s Kristen Welker report that President Obama's speech at the Anthropology Museum in Mexico City at 10:15 am ET will be equally aimed at a U.S. audience, according to a White House official. Obama’s hope is to recast many Americans' impression of Mexico as a poor country plagued by a violent drug war. The president is expected to say that while Mexico still struggles with those problems, it is also a country that has seen major economic strides in recent years.  In addition, Obama's larger theme will be that comprehensive immigration reform will be important to enhancing both economies and will be important for US-Mexico trade, which totaled $500 billion dollars last year. 

*** Senate race watch: And via your authors and our colleague Jessica Taylor, here’s some Senate race-related news to watch: First Lady Michelle Obama will help raise money for Rep. Ed Markey May 29, in what will be her first fundraising effort after the November 2012 election… “U.S. Rep. Colleen Hanabusa of Hawaii announced her candidacy for U.S. Senate on Thursday, setting up a primary showdown that almost certainly will be the state’s marquee race next year,” AP writes… Republicans are still having a difficult time finding a Senate candidate in Iowa… And in Georgia, GOP Rep. Jack Kingston became the third House member to throw his hat into the growing Senate primary, joining his fellow congressmen Paul Broun and Phil Gingrey.

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It takes two to make an agenda go right… Partisan gridlock is the norm during divided government… Polls: Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the immigration debate… Updated cabinet shuffle: Pritzker to Commerce, Froman to USTR… Under Pressure: Emily’s List unveils national campaign “to put a woman in the White House” (hint, hint, Hillary)… Tapping the brakes on the ’16 Cruz speculation… And Buzzfeed’s bomshell on Terry McAuliffe. 

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, D-W.Va., left, and Sen. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., arrive at a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday, April 10, 2013, to announce that they have reached a bipartisan deal on expanding background checks to more gun buyers.

*** It takes two: For all the questions and scrutiny President Obama has recently received when it comes to his stalled agenda -- especially on the topics of budget and guns -- it’s important to quote the immortal philosopher MC Rob Base: It takes two to make a thing go right. And Sen. Pat Toomey (R-PA), who partnered with Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) on the compromise background-check measure, admitted as much when explaining why that bipartisan gun-control amendment was defeated. "In the end it didn’t pass because we’re so politicized," Toomey told editors from Digital First Media in an interview published Wednesday by the Norristown Times Herald, per NBC’s Mike O’Brien. "There were some on my side who did not want to be seen helping the president do something he wanted to get done, just because the president wanted to do it," Toomey added. That also was the conclusion a recent New York Times/CBS poll: Americans largely retreat to their partisan camps, even if they overwhelmingly support background checks or a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. “Yes, I believe the Republicans should have voted for background checks,” a respondent told the New York Times. “But it’s like marriage. You stick with your wife no matter what, and you don’t just ditch your political party on one issue.”

*** Partisan gridlock is the norm during divided government: Of course, this is hardly something that’s new when it comes to American politics. As one of us wrote yesterday, partisan gridlock -- even on what would seem the simplest of issues -- is the norm, particularly in times of divided government. The exceptions have come when at least one party has had an incentive to compromise. Think Bill Clinton signing welfare reform into law before his re-election, or the tax cuts under Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush (who doesn't like tax cuts?), or maybe immigration reform this year. The exceptions have also come when it's an absolute necessity to compromise. Think the Social Security fix during the 1980s, the debt-ceiling deal in 2011, and the fiscal-cliff deal at the end of 2012. But that's about it under divided government. Conversely, the greatest legislative achievements have occurred when one party controls the White House and Congress -- usually by overwhelming numbers. In the 1930s, as Congress was passing Franklin Roosevelt's New Deal, Democrats held between 69 and 75 Senate seats, as well as 300-plus House seats. In 1965, during Lyndon Johnson's Great Society, Democrats controlled 68 Senate and 290-plus House seats.

*** Polls: Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the immigration debate: So will immigration reform be one of those historic exceptions to gridlock during divided government? We won’t find out for sure until later this summer, but two new polls show that the Boston bombings haven’t significantly impacted the debate. Per a national Quinnipiac survey, 70% of registered voters said that the bombings haven’t changed their opinion about whether there should be a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. And a separate Pew poll finds that nearly six-in-10 (58%) see the bombings as mostly a separate issue from the immigration debate. That said, the same Pew survey shows that Republicans (46%) are more likely to say that bombings should be a factor in the debate than Democrats (33%) or independents (34%).

*** Updated cabinet shuffle -- Pritzker to Commerce, Froman to USTR: NBC’s Peter Alexander confirms that President Obama will name friend and donor Penny Pritzker to run the Commerce Department and international economics adviser Mike Froman to be his U.S. trade representative. Obama will make this announcement at 10:15 am ET before he departs on his trip to Mexico and Latin America. On that trip, Obama and Mexico President Pena Nieto hold a press conference at 5:10 pm ET, and they have a working dinner at 8:15 pm ET. By the way, here is First Read’s updated look at the president’s second-term cabinet.

John Kerry at State (replaced Hillary Clinton)
Chuck Hagel at Defense (replaced Leon Panetta)
Jack Lew at Treasury (replaced Tim Geithner)
Sally Jewell at Interior (replaced Ken Salazar)
Sylvia Burwell at OMB (replaced acting director Jeffrey Zients)
Lisa Jackson at EPA (Gina McCarthy nominated)
Steven Chu at Energy (Ernest Moniz nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor (Tom Perez nominated)
Ray LaHood at Transportation (Anthony Foxx nominated)
Commerce (N/A) (Pritzker nominated)
U.S. Trade Representative (Froman nominated)

And here are the cabinet secretaries who are remaining:
Janet Napolitano (DHS)
Arne Duncan (Education)
Tom Vilsack (Agriculture)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Shaun Donovan (HUD)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

*** Under Pressure: At 9:30 am ET, the Democratic abortion-rights group Emily’s List is holding an event in DC today to unveil its national campaign “to put a woman in the White House.” This campaign includes Emily’s List polling that shows battleground-state voters are ready for a female president; a six-figure digital buy to reach women on popular online sites; and a new “Madam President” video. And it all has an obvious message: Hillary Clinton -- hint, hint -- we really want you to run for president. And Emily’s List President Stephanie Schriock says as much in a CNN op-ed tied to today’s rollout. “So who will it be? There's one name on all our minds: Hillary Clinton. Voters across the country are excited about her possible run. But if she decides not to run, we still have a deep bench of incredible female leaders to choose from.” And that’s perhaps the best way to view all the Hillary-related activity, whether it’s Emily’s List or that Draft Hillary campaign. These folks are putting pressure (gently but obviously) on the former secretary of state to make a 2016 bid. And by the way, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Clinton blowing away the potential Democratic field. She gets 65% of Democratic voters, Vice President gets 13%, and New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo gets 4%. 

*** Tapping the brakes on the Cruz speculation: In other 2016 news, National Review’s Robert Costa yesterday wrote a piece noting that freshman Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) “is considering a presidential run, according to his friends and confidants.” But as our colleague Mike O’Brien has noted, you might want to tap on those 2016 brakes -- given the conservative competition Cruz would face, concerns by the GOP establishment, and the fact that he was born in Canada. While Costa reports that Cruz “isn’t worried that his birth certificate will be a problem,” we’re not so sure. Here’s what the Constitution says: “No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President.” Is a natural-born citizen someone who was born abroad (in Canada)? Is it someone who was born to just one parent who’s a citizen? Bottom line: It all comes down to how courts define “natural born.”

*** Buzzfeed on McAuliffe: Lastly, just after Terry McAuliffe released this warm and fuzzy TV ad showing him, among other things, in the delivery room when one of his children was born came this Buzzfeed bombshell: “McAuliffe also wrote about the birth of his children in his 2007 book What A Party, noting on one instance he left his wife at the hospital to attend a party for Washington Post reporter Lloyd Grove before the birth of his daughter Sarah.” Ouch. This has become the theme of the McAuliffe-Cuccinelli gubernatorial race in Virginia: Every day, there’s an issue that seems to hurt one of these candidates. For McAuliffe, this piece of news is hurtful, because it shows that he will have the difficult task of shaking the persona that he’s a DC-establishment operator -- something that might be easier to shake if he were running in a state without a ton of Beltway media living there.

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Battle lines are already drawn in Markey-Gomez race… Specter of Scott Brown hovers over the contest (and why that’s probably a good thing for Democrats)… Why Dems are favored to hold onto the MA SEN seat: Markey’s vote total (309,487) was almost DOUBLE the votes cast in the entire Republican contest (188,375)… Obama yesterday: My job isn’t to make Congress behave… POTUS on health-care implementation: It’s already taken place for 85%-90% of Americans… Newtown victim confronts Ayotte at NH town hall… And the McDonnell-Star Scientific story isn’t helpful to Cuccinelli.

*** Battle lines are drawn in Massachusetts: Well, we now have the match-up for the June 25 general election to fill the U.S. Senate seat that John Kerry vacated to become secretary of state. In the Democratic primary last night, Congressman Ed Markey easily defeated fellow Congressman Stephen Lynch, 57%-43%. And in the GOP race, Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez triumphed over former U.S. Attorney Michael Sullivan, 51%-36%; state Rep. Dan Winslow got 13%. The battle lines in the Markey-vs.-Gomez contest are already drawn. Markey is out to associate Gomez -- who has called himself “an independent voice” and “a new kind of Republican” -- with the GOP and the Tea Party. "This campaign is about standing up to the special interests and the extreme Tea Party Republicans who want to stop progress and send our country in the wrong direction,” Markey said last night. Senate Majority PAC, a Democratic Super PAC, has labeled Gomez “Mitt Romney Jr.” (because of his career in private equity and because of the former Romney staffers working for him).

*** Specter of Scott Brown hovers over the race (and that’s probably a good thing for Democrats): Meanwhile, Gomez is going after Markey for his 37 years in Washington. "I want to take you back in time. The year was 1976; 37 years ago. Gerald Ford was president. Al Gore had not yet invented the Internet… That was a lifetime ago. Me, I was just playing little league baseball. And that was when Ed Markey first got elected to Congress," the Republican said last night, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty. (The National Republican Senatorial Committee even has a web video on “Ed Markey’s Worst Hits from the ‘70s, ‘80s, ‘90s, and Today.”) For Democrats, the specter of Scott Brown -- who won the special Senate election in Massachusetts in 2010 -- is hovering over this race. But don’t forget that Brown’s victory was a perfect-storm event: It took place at the height of unpopularity over the health-care legislation moving through Congress, the unemployment rate was near 10%, and no one in Massachusetts Democratic Party circles saw Brown’s victory coming. Three years later, none of those factors have that same intensity, including the fact that Democrats won’t be taking the race for granted.

Steven Senne / AP

Republican candidate for the Senate Gabriel Gomez gives a thumbs up as he takes to the stage next to his daughter Olivia, 13, left, before addressing an audience with a victory speech at a watch party, in Cohasset, Mass., Tuesday, April 30, 2013.

*** Numbers to explain why Gomez is the underdog in this blue state: Still, here’s a little more perspective for the June 25 general election: Markey’s vote total (309,487) was almost DOUBLE the votes cast in the entire Republican contest (188,375). Heck, Lynch by himself got more votes (229,594) than the entire GOP field combined (188,375). By the way, MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” today has interviews with both Markey and Gomez.

*** Obama: My job isn’t to make Congress behave: At his White House press conference yesterday, President Obama received questions on a number of topics -- Syria, the Guantanamo Bay detainees, the Boston bombing, and even the NBA’s Jason Collins announcing he’s gay. But to us, what stood out were the president’s comments blaming Congress at almost every turn, no matter the topic. From guns to GITMO, to health care and of course the sequester and the budget. “You seem to suggest that somehow these folks over there have no responsibilities, and that my job is to somehow get them to behave,” he said. “That’s their job. They’re elected -- members of Congress are elected in order to do what’s right for their constituencies and for the American people.” He went on to say, “The only way the problem does get fixed is if both parties sit down and they say:  How are we going to make sure that we're reducing our deficit sensibly?” And there was this: “There are common-sense solutions to our problems right now. I cannot force Republicans to embrace those common-sense solutions. I can urge them to. I can put pressure on them. I can rally the American people around those common-sense solutions. But ultimately, they, themselves, are going to have to say, we want to do the right thing.” It’s not new that the president is frustrated by Congress. The question is whether voters are in such agreement with him that they get a throw-the-bums-out mentality.

*** POTUS on health care: Implementation of the health-law has already taken place for most Americans: The other interesting answer Obama gave yesterday was on health care. Republicans have done a very good job of arguing that implementing the new health-care law is so big, so complicated. And retiring Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus only gave them more fodder when he called the implementation a potential “train wreck.” But the president tried to knock that perception down yesterday. “For the 85% to 90% of Americans who already have health insurance, this thing has already happened.  And their only impact is that their insurance is stronger, better, more secure than it was before -- full stop.  That’s it. They don’t have to worry about anything else.” He added, “So all the implementation issues that are coming up are implementation issues related to that small group of people, 10 to 15 percent of Americans -- now, it’s still 30 million Americans, but a relatively narrow group -- who don’t have health insurance right now.” Until Oct. 1 (the day enrollment for health care begins), the White House and Republicans are going to be battling over trying to define the implementation. Republicans are essentially using the same playbook from 2010, but instead of attacking health care for the number of pages that are in the bill, they will attempt to stoke fear by attacking the complexities of the system. The question is whether the White House has learned their lesson from 2010.

*** Newtown victim confronts Ayotte at town hall: The town halls are back -- this time on the issue of guns and gun control. NBC’s Kasie Hunt reports on Sen. Kelly Ayotte’s town hall yesterday in New Hampshire: “Bringing the national gun debate to a tiny New England town on Tuesday, the daughter of the slain principal of Sandy Hook Elementary confronted Sen. Kelly Ayotte at the lawmaker’s first town hall meeting since she voted against expanded background checks on all commercial gun sales… ‘You had mentioned that day the burden on owners of gun stores that the expanded background checks would harm. I am just wondering why the burden of my mother being gunned down in the halls of her elementary school isn't more important than that,’ said Lafferty, whose mother Dawn Hochsprung was gunned down by Newtown shooter Adam Lanza.” While some might dismiss these town halls as nothing but activists from the outside taking over -- tell that to the Democrats in 2009 who were arguing the same thing. Grass-tops can start a real grassroots fire.

*** McDonnell-Star Scientific story isn’t helpful to Cuccinelli: Also yesterday, Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) “denied any wrongdoing in his business dealings with a family friend and donor, saying Tuesday that an FBI probe into that relationship does not impair his ability to serve as governor,” NBC’s Mike O’Brien writes. “I think it’s important for the people of Virginia to know nothing has been done with regard to my relationship with [Jonnie] Williams or his company, Star Scientific, to give any kind of special benefits to him or his company or, frankly, any other person or any other company during the time that I’ve been governor,” McDonnell said on Washington’s WTOP radio. And on the allegation that Williams paid the $15,000 catering bill for the wedding of McDonnell’s daughter: “I made the determination -- and I believe it was correct -- that it was a gift to my daughter, and therefore under the current laws it did not need to be disclosed.” Folks, this isn’t good news for GOP gubernatorial candidate Ken Cuccinelli -- due to his own ties to Star Scientific and the fact that this McDonnell/Star Scientific story isn’t going away anytime soon.

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This story was originally published on Wed May 1, 2013 9:11 AM EDT

Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term… The president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET… An extraordinary last 12 months when it comes to gay rights… It’s Primary Day in Massachusetts’ special Senate race; polls close at 8:00 pm ET…  Sanford and Colbert Busch took off their gloves in last night’s debate… Jessica Taylor on new Dem ad hitting Sanford over his affair… NYT/CBS poll: 62% oppose intervention in Syria… And FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor?

Jacquelyn Martin / AP

President Barack Obama gestures as he announces he will nominate Charlotte, N.C. Mayor Anthony Foxx to succeed Ray LaHood as Transportation Secretary, Monday, April 29, 2013, in the East Room of the White House.

*** Measuring the first 100 days of Obama’s second term: You might not have been keeping track, but we’ve now reached the 100-day mark in President Obama’s second term. And possibly to mark the occasion, the president held a news conference at 10:15 am ET. Bloomberg’s Al Hunt makes a smart point about how the first 100 days of the second have fared. “The 100-day mark is a measure for first-term presidents, not re-elected ones. Yet the end of April is a propitious moment for an early evaluation of how President Barack Obama and congressional Republicans are meeting the aspirations set out in January. The answer: Both are falling short.” Indeed, outside of immigration -- and make no mistake, that’s a pretty big exception -- politics seems about as divided as it did in 2011-2012.The budget talks are back to square one (and the sequester fight only seemed to exacerbate things). Passing gun control failed in the Senate. Achieving tax reform seems like a considerable reach. And to top it off, some Republicans are beginning to flex their muscles -- again -- when it comes to raising the debt ceiling. So the idea of the “fever” breaking that the president promised during the campaign has yet to come to fruition. Of course, presidencies (and especially second terms) aren’t defined by the first 100 days. But remember, unlike first terms, second terms (at least domestically) have a shorter shelf life.

*** An extraordinary last 12 months for gay rights: What’s remarkable -- politically -- about NBA basketball player Jason Collins’ announcement that he is gay is that caps an extraordinary 12 months when it comes to the gay rights movement and gay marriage specifically. As NBC’s Chris Donovan has pointed out, just think of what’s happened in the past year:

-- On “Meet the Press,” Vice President Biden announces he’s “comfortable” with gay marriage (May 6, 2012)
-- President Obama then comes out in support of it (May 9, 2012)
-- Obama’s second inaugural address contains this line: “Our journey is not complete until our gay brothers and sisters are treated
like anyone else under the law” (Jan. 20, 2013)
-- Numerous other politicians announce their support before and after the Supreme Court oral arguments on Prop. 8 and DOMA
-- Supreme Court hears the oral arguments in Prop. 8 and DOMA (March 26-27, 2013)
-- Rhode Island is on track to become 10th state approving gay marriage (April 2013)
-- Jason Collins becomes the first male athlete in a major sport to announce he’s gay (April 29, 2013)

*** Three other points on Collins: We have three other points to make regarding the Jason Collins news. First, in the 20^th Century, sports often led the way on integration (think Jackie Robinson in baseball, African-American professional football players like Jim Brown in the 1950s and 1960s). But in this case, in the 21^st Century, sports was a lagging indicator. Indeed, 53% of the country in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll said they supported gay marriage before the first male athlete in a major sport announced he was gay. Second, don’t underestimate the impact that Obama’s support for gay marriage had on an African-American athlete coming out. (The president called Collins yesterday.) And third, given that Collins is now a 34-year-old journeyman center, there was a chance – before yesterday – that another team might NOT have signed him to play NBA basketball next year. Now? There will be a tremendous amount of pressure (applied by David Stern personally?) for NBA teams to sign him.

*** Primary Day in Massachusetts: If it’s a Tuesday, it means that some folks are out there casting ballots. And today, those folks are the voters in Massachusetts who are choosing party nominees to fill the U.S. Senate seat that John Kerry vacated to become secretary of state. In the special Democratic primary, Congressmen Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch are battling it out, and Markey remains the favorite. (The only question is how big a favorite is he.) Meanwhile, the Republican side features three candidates: Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez, former U.S. Attorney (and former acting ATF director) Mike Sullivan, and state Rep. Dan Winslow. Given his deep pockets, Gomez might give Republicans their best chance to compete in the June 25 general election. But also don’t forget that Gomez was the spokesman for the organization that accused Obama of politicizing the killing of Osama bin Laden. Polls close at 8:00 pm ET.

*** Sanford and Colbert Busch take off their gloves: Speaking of special elections, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch certainly made their only debate count last night in Charleston, SC. Colbert Busch whacked her GOP opponent for misusing taxpayer dollars, especially when traveling to Argentina. “When we’re looking at fiscal responsibility, it doesn’t mean you take the money we saved and leave the country for a personal purpose,” she said, per MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor. Sanford fought back by tying her to House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and national Democrats. “It’s not believable to me that someone gives you a million dollars and not expect something in return,” he said. But Colbert Busch later responded, "No one tells me what to do, except the people of South Carolina's 1st Congressional District." Politico has more on the debate, which it said “laid bare their ideological differences on a range of issues. Sanford said he opposed the gun control bill that failed in the Senate recently calling for expanded background checks; Colbert said she backed it despite her belief in 2nd Amendment rights. Sanford said he would vote against the comprehensive immigration reform plan being pushed by the ‘Gang of Eight’; Colbert Busch favors it.”

*** New Dem ad explicitly hits Sanford over affair: Also in the Sanford-vs.-Colbert Busch race, Jessica Taylor reports on a new Democratic Super PAC TV ad hitting Sanford. The advertisement features a female GOP voter from the district slamming the former governor for his disappearance from the state while in office and the disclosure that he was having an affair with an Argentinian woman. “I used to be for Mark Sanford -- but not anymore,” says Jennifer Stark of Mount Pleasant, S.C. “He skipped town to be with his mistress on Father’s Day. Sanford even asked his wife for permission to have the affair, and wasted our taxpayer dollars on himself.” “I’m a Republican. But Mark Sanford just doesn’t share our values,” says Stark.

*** Six in 10 oppose U.S. intervention in Syria: Want another reason why the Obama administration is walking very carefully when it comes to Syria? According to a brand-new New York Times/CBS poll, 62% of Americans say the United States DOES NOT have a responsibility to do something about the fighting in Syria.

*** FBI examining Bob McDonnell’s relationship with donor? Finally, this isn’t good news for the current GOP governor of Virginia, who just happens to be a 2016 presidential possibility.  “The FBI has begun examining the relationship between Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell and his wife Maureen and the chief executive of a nutritional supplements manufacturer that is the subject of a federal investigation, two people with knowledge of the review said Monday,” the AP writes. “Federal authorities began questioning people close to the McDonnells as an outgrowth of a securities probe of Virginia-based Star Scientific Inc., said the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because their roles in the case preclude them from speaking publicly. They said FBI agents have asked questions about gifts the McDonnells have received from company CEO Jonnie Williams and whether the Republican governor or his administration aided the company in return.”

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Former U.S. Supreme Court Justice Sandra Day O'Connor expressed doubts that the nation's highest court should have ruled on the controversial Bush v. Gore case that decided the outcome of the 2000 presidential election.

"It took the case and decided it at a time when it was still a big election issue," O'Connor told the Chicago Tribune editorial board on Friday. "Maybe the court should have said, 'We're not going to take it, goodbye.'"

The Tribune has more from O'Connor:

The case, she said, "stirred up the public" and "gave the court a less-than-perfect reputation."

"Obviously the court did reach a decision and thought it had to reach a decision," she said. "It turned out the election authorities in Florida hadn't done a real good job there and kind of messed it up. And probably the Supreme Court added to the problem at the end of the day."

O'Connor, who was appointed to the court by Ronald Reagan in 1981, was part of the 5-4 majority deciding to stop the recount in the crucial battleground state of Florida.

Washington taps the brakes on Syria… On implementing Obamacare… The FAA sequester fix -- Washington at its worst… Obama to nominate Anthony Foxx to be Transportation secretary… Sanford and Colbert Busch to debate tonight at 7:00 pm ET in South Carolina… And MA SEN primaries take place tomorrow.

George Ourfalian / Reuters

A general view shows damaged buildings in the old city of Aleppo April 29, 2013.

*** Tapping the brakes on Syria: Days after the Obama administration confirmed that Syria might have crossed President Obama’s red line -- using chemical weapons against its own people -- there’s collective agreement that something needs to be done. But there also seems to be collective agreement that the something needs to be small and limited, at least for now. On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), one of Washington’s biggest hawks, called for arming the rebels in Syria, helping refugees, and securing the stockpiles of chemical weapons. But it also was notable what he DIDN’T CALL FOR. “[T]he worst thing the United States could do right now is put boots on the ground on Syria. That would turn the people against us,” he said. So as Obama seems to be trying to buy time, Washington appears to be giving him that. And here’s one of the reasons why: The rebels, as the New York Times wrote on Sunday, have ties to Al Qaeda. It’s a very tricky situation…

*** Implementing Obamacare: When it comes to implementing the new federal health-care law, Senate Finance Chairman Max Baucus called it a “train wreck.” New York Times columnist David Brooks, citing supporters of the law, said that “things are going worse than expected.” And we have spoken with Democrats who are worried, too. But as Jon Cohn writes in the New Republic, none of this should be surprising: This is a complex process -- for the government, the states, and consumers. Yet among the Obama administration’s top concerns is ensuring that enough young men and women obtain insurance. (If the healthy uninsured 18 to 35 year olds don't sign up, the numbers don't work for anyone, for the government, for health insurance companies and for those of us who pay premiums.) And that was largely the pitch the president made at Planned Parenthood’s conference in DC last Friday. “So I’m here to also ask for your help, because we need to get the word out,” he said. “We need you to tell your patients, your friends, your neighbors, your family members what the health care law means for them. Make sure they know that if they don’t have health insurance, they’ll be able to sign up for quality, affordable insurance starting this fall in an online marketplace where private insurers will compete for their business. Make sure that they know that there are plans out there right now that cover the cost of contraceptive and preventive care free of charge.”

*** Washington at its worst: Also on Friday, Congress passed its legislative fix to prevent the air-traffic-controller furloughs under the so-called sequester. And in one single episode, it highlighted all of Washington’s problems. You had a divided and often-dysfunctional Congress -- which originally passed the sequester -- take extraordinary action ONLY after the airlines and business travelers complained about the flight delays. But the Congress didn’t do anything about the other budget cuts (to things like Head Start or the Meals on Wheels programs). Then you had a White House -- which signed the sequester into law -- give up its greatest piece of leverage in this debate and cave in its demand for a complete fix that includes additional tax revenue. Bottom line: This was Washington at its worst. And what’s an even bigger takeaway from the whole FAA fix? We are a long way away from a real budget fix. The idea of a grand bargain is as elusive today as it's ever been.

*** Obama nominates Foxx to head Transportation Department: As NBC has reported, President Obama today will nominate Charlotte Mayor Anthony Foxx to be his second-term Transportation secretary, replacing Ray LaHood. The White House event will take place at 2:10 pm ET. Meanwhile, the New York Times adds that the president “also appeared close to nominating Penny Pritzker, a hotel magnate, longtime friend and fund-raiser, as the next commerce secretary, and Michael Froman, his international economics adviser, as the United States trade representative, although neither nomination was scheduled to be announced on Monday.” So here is our updated look at Obama’s second-term cabinet:

John Kerry at State (replaced Hillary Clinton)
Chuck Hagel at Defense (replaced Leon Panetta)
Jack Lew at Treasury (replaced Tim Geithner)
Sally Jewell at Interior (replaced Ken Salazar)
Sylvia Burwell at OMB (replaced acting director Jeffrey Zients)
Lisa Jackson at EPA (Gina McCarthy nominated)
Steven Chu at Energy (Ernest Moniz nominated)
Hilda Solis at Labor (Tom Perez nominated)
Ray LaHood at Transportation (Anthony Fox nominated)
Commerce (N/A) (Pritzker appears to be the leading candidate)
U.S. Trade Representative (Froman appears to be the leading candidate)

And here are the cabinet secretaries who are remaining:

Janet Napolitano (DHS)
Arne Duncan (Education)
Tom Vilsack (Agriculture)
Eric Holder (Justice)
Kathleen Sebelius (HHS)
Eric Shinseki (Veterans Affairs)

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- South Carolina style: A week before their general-election contest, Republican Mark Sanford and Democrat Elizabeth Colbert Busch will participate in their first debate. The AP: “The two meet Monday evening at The Citadel in a debate sponsored by the Patch news service, the South Carolina Radio Network and Charleston television station WCBD. The debate is being cablecast by C-SPAN. It's their first joint appearance in the campaign that started earlier when incumbent congressman Tim Scott was appointed to the state's vacant U.S. Senate seat.” The debate takes place at 7:00 pm ET.

*** Let’s get ready to rumble -- New England style: And the special Senate primaries take place tomorrow in Massachusetts. MSNBC’s Jessica Taylor recently examined the Democratic contest between Reps. Ed Markey and Stephen Lynch, especially in wake of the Boston Marathon bombing. And MSNBC’s Sarah B. Boxer looked at the Republican race featuring former U.S. Attorney Mike Sullivan, state Rep. Dan Winslow, and Navy SEAL-turned-businessman Gabriel Gomez.

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A bipartisan slate of political leaders pondered what role the United States should play in Syria following indications that its besieged leader used chemical weapons in that country's civil war. 

Following the Obama administration's declaration this week that Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons against rebels looking to unseat him, lawmakers pondered how to best respond. President Barack Obama had previously called the use of such weapons a "red line" that would prompt a response from the United States.

Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., a senior member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, urged the president to begin identifying a strategy to secure Syria's stockpiles of chemical weapons should the government fall.

"Be prepared with an international force to go in and secure these stocks of chemical, and perhaps biological, weapons," McCain said on NBC's "Meet the Press."

But, mindful of Americans' war-weariness following nearly a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan, McCain cautioned against sending U.S. troops to Syria, warning that it could prompt resentment from Syrians. 

The Arizona senator said in the meanwhile that Obama could establish a no-fly zone in Syria without endangering any U.S. troops. And McCain also called for Obama to further arm rebel groups. 

The White House has been more cautious, explaining this week in briefings to lawmakers that evidence of the use of chemical weapons in Syria is still preliminary, and the government would take more time to gather intelligence. 

"To use potential weapons of mass destruction on civilian populations crosses another line with respect to international norms and international law.  And that is going to be a game changer," Obama said Friday before meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan.

"We have to act prudently. We have to make these assessments deliberately," the president added. "But I think all of us, not just in the United States but around the world, recognize how we cannot stand by and permit the systematic use of weapons like chemical weapons on civilian populations."

The administration's caution reflects the difficulty in navigating the situation in Syria. A key concern involves identifying which rebels to arm in Syria, and whether there is a risk of those arms being turned back agains the U.S. in the future. 

"My concern is that al Qaeda has more influence among the rebels than it should," said Rep. Peter King, R-N.Y., a key lawmaker who serves on intelligence and homeland security panels. 

But even beyond the national security implications, some lawmakers have said there might be humanitarian justifications to act in Syria.

"I think the United States could play a bigger role in dealing with the humanitarian crisis," said Rep. Keith Ellison, D-Minn., one of two Muslim members of Congress. "I don't think the world's greatest super power, the United States, can stand by and do nothing."

This story was originally published on Sun Apr 28, 2013 9:33 AM EDT

As Republicans mount opposition once again to President Barack Obama’s health-care law, the president appealed to women and specifically Planned Parenthood for help in fighting back.

Mike Theiler / Reuters

President Barack Obama speaks at the Planned Parenthood National Conference at the Marriott Wardman Park Hotel in Washington April 26, 2013.

"I am here to also ask for your help, because we need to get the word out," Obama told Planned Parenthood Friday.

Much of the Affordable Care Act will begin being implemented next year, including the unpopular mandate, requiring those who do not have health insurance to obtain it or pay a fine. The Supreme Court upheld the law in a 5-4 decision last year.

Republicans, led by Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., have begun a messaging campaign against the law’s implementation in much the same way the GOP did before the law’s passage in 2009.

“I urge my friends on the other side to join with Republicans and stop this ‘train wreck’ before things get even worse,” McConnell said Thursday in a Senate floor speech. McConnell’s up for reelection in 2014 in Kentucky.

The Republican leader’s use of the phrase “train wreck” was a reference to retiring Democratic Sen. Max Baucus of Montana. Baucus, who ironically helped write and pass the health-care law, gave Republicans ammunition last week while questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius during a Senate hearing.

"I just see a huge train wreck coming down,” he said. "You and I have discussed this many times, and I don't see any results yet."

Baucus, who was up for reelection in a red state in 2014, made the remark the same day he voted against the compromise gun background check legislation.

He announced his retirement just six days later.

Republicans have indicated it will use concerns about the law’s implementation against Democrats in next year’s midterm, hoping it will help fuel a takeover of the Senate.

“In 2014, ObamaCare will be a political tsunami.... and Democrats are terrified,” National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesman Brad Dayspring said in a tweet, part of a series of tweets messaging against health care and highlighting other Democrats’ concerns.

Republicans need to net six seats to gain control of the Upper Chamber and make McConnell majority leader.

During the first fight over the health plan, before it became law in 2009, President Obama was seen as the best messenger for it. There were few, if any, other Democrats who showed an ability to frame the argument in favor of the plan as well as Republicans who opposed it.

Health-law advocates, however, worry that the president will be consumed with immigration over the next several months into the fall, just as the behind-the-scenes implementation of the law will be taking place.

That’s one reason Obama is looking for allies, and there’s no better place for him to start than Planned Parenthood, a group that helped advocate for the law’s passage.

“Planned Parenthood’s not going anywhere,” Obama told the group, referring to Republican attempts to de-fund it. “It’s not going anywhere today; it’s not going anywhere tomorrow. … You've got a president who's going to be right there with you in that fight every step of the way."

This story was originally published on Fri Apr 26, 2013 12:30 PM EDT