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  • 3
    Oct
    2012
    1:19pm, EDT

    Social media analysis: Health care remains No. 1 topic ahead of Obama, Romney debate

    Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

    Social media campaign analysis for Tuesday, Oct. 2. Click the image for the full daily report.

    By M. Alex Johnson, NBC News

    Throughout a summer of political turmoil over the budget, taxes, national security and gaffes, one issue — health care — has consistently defined the presidential campaign as President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney head into their first debate Wednesday evening, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of more than 3 million comments on Twitter and Facebook.

    M. Alex Johnson M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

    Every day since June 28 — when the Supreme Court upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which Obama signed into law in 2010 — "Health Care" has been the No. 1 driver of conversation about the president, making up more than a quarter of positive commentary, according to the analysis:


    Among negative commenters, "Obamacare" has consistently been the top driver, as well, only occasionally trumped by "Gas Prices":

    Taken together, the two categories make up slightly more than 44 percent of all commentary on Obama over the 3+-month period, an emphasis that's easy to see in this visual representation of all election conversation around the president:

    For this report, NBCPolitics.com analyzed 3.46 million social media posts using ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media.

    More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

    It isn't the same as a traditional survey, which seeks to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

    Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

    More than three months after the court's decision, and even as the issue has receded in media coverage, health care is still what they're talking about:

    For Romney, the debate may offer an opportunity to more clearly define himself. Over the same 3+-month period, primary drivers of positive conversation have emphasized Romney's personal characteristics over specific issues:

    Critics of Romney have also zeroed in on their general perception of him. The leading negative topic — by just 1 percentage point — has been "Women's Issues" (generally access to abortion and equal pay). Right after that come questions about his connection to "real Americans," his convictions and his religion.

    Likewise — and in contrast with Obama — the visual representation of all 1.14 million posts about Romney indicates a high interest in whether he can win in November, as opposed to his stands on specific issues:

    NBCNews.com will live-stream the debate from Denver at 9 p.m. ET.

    202 comments

    Interesting charts. President Obama's negatives are due to some of the right-wing-whackjobs who post on these vines with their malicous lies about his heritage and political views. Anything to WIN even if it means cheat and lie!

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    Explore related topics: debate, mitt-romney, barack-obama, facebook, social-media, featured, twitter, m-alex-johnson, crimson-hexagon, commentid-featured
  • 2
    Oct
    2012
    6:32am, EDT

    Sarcasm campaigning: Social media hones cynical edge in presidential politics

    In the first presidential campaign since social media came of age, the campaigns of President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are both struggling to learn the new rules of the road.

    By Bob Sullivan, Columnist, NBC News

    When you're watching the first presidential debate Wednesday night, don't believe what you see. Online, that is. As Mitt Romney and Barack Obama make their inevitable slip-ups and fact-challenged assertions, bring your well-trained skepticism to every computer, cell phone and tablet screen near you.

    Jokes that seem to catch fire on their own -- remember Clint Eastwood's invisible Obama from the Republican convention? -- might not be quite so organic. Twitter themes that seem to be everywhere might not be popular so much as purchased. And stinging one-liners that show up in your streams and news feeds might make you chuckle, but they are probably half-truths, and most definitely not a great tool for picking the leader of the Free World.

    Even if you aren't on Twitter, virtually all political reporters are, and they increasingly take their cues from it. This is the first presidential election in which social media will play a mainstream role, and it's important to remember not everything is as it seems online.


    Four years ago, Facebook and Twitter had only just begun to capture the world's imagination (Pew says that 10 percent of the electorate used social media in 2008 to research candidates, and Twitter was scarcely 2 years old on election night). But with this election cycle, the social media giants are now key outlets for candidates to transmit their messages to voters. While social media may appear to offer unfettered, uncontrollable discussion of candidates and their positions, the campaigns are hard at work learning how to manipulate the tools to their advantage. And there's added spice to the Internet element of this season's presidential campaign -- because social media is so new, rules of engagement are lacking.

    For example, Barack Obama famously held a surprise virtual town hall on Aug. 29, offering to take questions from Reddit.com users, embracing that site's standard "Ask Me Anything" (AMA) format. The event was unusual because it occurred during the height of the Republican National Convention, breaking the well-established convention that candidates don't upstage each other during their opponent's convention. Obama almost certainly wouldn't have held a traditional press conference that day -- but a Reddit AMA?  Who's to say that was a violation of unwritten politicking rules? When suspicion arose that questions from the AMA might have been less spontaneous than they first appeared, many observers chimed in with cynical reminders that real-world town halls and press conferences also include plants. Who's to say what rules should apply on Reddit?

    About the same time, Romney's campaign made what is believed to be the first major campaign purchase of a "sponsored hashtag," attempting to corral discussion on Twitter around the topic "#AreYouBetterOff?" Simultaneously, a parody Twitter account named MexicanMitt was temporarily suspended. A month or two earlier, Romney's number of Twitter followers shot up by a surprising amount. Are such hashtag purchases tasteful? Was suspension of the account coincidental? Is it fair to purchase followers? Again, the online rules aren't clear. 

    There is little argument that Obama's campaign, which held an exclusive on grass-roots Internet campaigning last time around, holds a major advantage over Romney on Twitter and Facebook. Some of that is pure demographics -- new Web tools skew younger and more liberal. But some of it is the result of well-timed sarcasm campaigns. Each time Romney trips over his tongue, you can be sure a cascade of social media comedy  -- a "meme," in Internet lingo -- will follow. Sometimes, that's an organic outpouring of creativity. Sometimes, that's the work of an Obama supporter like Matt Ortega. He told Salon earlier this year that he was behind a website named "EtchASketchMittRomney.com," which appeared almost immediately after top Romney aide embarrassingly said that the candidate's campaign positions in the GOP primary could be easily changed, as if they were written on an Etch-A-Sketch. Ortega said he owns dozens of other similarly sarcastic websites, all powered by the pickup they get on Twitter and Facebook. Ortega is a Democratic consultant, but swears the sites are unpaid hobby work.

    Turning candidates into punch lines
    There's certainly nothing wrong with being funny. Obama's Reddit chat didn't break any rules; neither did Romney's Twitter advertising. But is social media a free-for-all? Perhaps, said Brad Phillips, a media consultant who runs MrMediaTraining.com. But he's not convinced that social media has made things worse. Campaigns have always stretched the rules -- and the truth -- to get any advantage possible, he said.

    "Think about the Willie Horton ads (pillorying Michael Dukakis in 1988). So many others," Phillips said. "If the Internet existed in those campaigns, would they have used online tactics? Of course." Nor would campaign managers from elections past have fretted about scheduling a virtual press conference during an opponent's convention, he said. In some ways, he's surprised there hasn't been much evidence presented yet of "dirty tricks" online, such as the whisper campaign during the 2000 primaries alleging that John McCain had an illegitimate child.

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    On the other hand, Twitter and Facebook have created one huge new avenue for attack, Phillips said -- the power of humor. Once upon a time, the biggest threat to a candidate could be a misstep so bad that it became fodder for late-night TV humor on Johnny Carson's "Tonight Show."

    While that's still true -- an unplanned appearance on David Letterman's Top 10 List can really hurt -- Twitter and Facebook allow campaigns to create their own late night butt-of-joke moments without needing a comedy writer to see it their way. It's easy to argue that the real damage from Clint Eastwood's halting Republican Convention speech came from the hours of sarcastic Tweets and Facebook discussions that began before Eastwood even finished speaking.

    "In the past, you knew a crisis had jumped the firewall when it appeared on late night TV as a joke....that meant the issue had gone beyond being just a story for political types," Phillips said. "You wonder if same dynamic is played out now online. If you can make a candidate a punch line (in social media) you've scored a hit."

    Phillips also said sarcastic memes could slowly but surely wear down a candidate's chances, cumulatively building and impression that "a candidate is a joke," which would be hard to counteract.

    "Is that clean (campaigning)?" he asked. "I don't know. But in future political cycles, I believe candidates will have to pay a lot more attention to this."

    Clean or not, University of Virginia professor and presidential politics expert Larry Sabato has been sharply critical of both campaigns -- and political reporters -- for getting caught up in what he calls the "Gaffe Game." Hunting for the next one-liner is a poor way to evaluate presidential candidates, he says.

    "When we tire of Gaffe Game, let's have a POTUS Spelling Bee. Would be about as revealing," he said recently in his own Twitter feed.

    Scoring points through sarcasm is hardly new, but Sabato believes social media has indeed accelerated the gaffe obsession in this election cycle.

    "Many people are on (Twitter) for hours every day. Do they make it worse? Is the pope German? They drain every gaffe of every ounce of meaning and political advantage," he said. "Every time a candidate has a blunder or tongue-twister, Twitter explodes with commentary defending and deriding the candidate."

    On the other hand, there is hope, Sabato thinks. Social media seems to accelerate the news cycle, too, meaning that gaffes come and go quicker than they would in the past.

    "They … destroy the gaffe quickly -- it burns itself out on Twitter faster than it would otherwise," he said.

    Campaign zingers now 140 characters?
    So does social media help or hurt the election process? Naturally, it's impossible to say. But it's important to note that voters shouldn't be fooled by what might seem like more personal connections offered by candidates through Facebook "Likes," "personal" e-mails and Tweets. In Phillips' impression, candidates are far more sterilized and prepackaged than ever.

    "The candidates are so carefully controlled, access to them is controlled, they are trying to prevent any kind of YouTube moment. (Candidates' moves) are planned within an inch of their lives," he lamented. It's hard to believe that only five presidents ago, reporter Sam Donaldson and President Ronald Reagan sparred during fairly spontaneous press conferences. And vice presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro spent two hours answering reporters' questions about her tax returns.

    Today's candidates usually hide behind carefully orchestrated digital personas, lobbing one-liners over the wall in an attempt to slowly move the needle on the small number of undecided voters who will swing the election.

    "Candidates are giving away the ability to have a knockout fantastic answer," he said. "They are just trying to advance in inches not in yards," he said.

    That raises the discouraging possibility that the key to who wins and who loses on Nov. 6 could be which candidate comes up with the best joke that fits in 140 characters or fewer.

    * Follow Bob Sullivan on Facebook.
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     More from Red Tape Chronicles:

    • Mom forces TSA to shell out $3.99 for confiscated peanut butter
    • Why your next 'Passw0rd' may not be a password
    • Airlines charge passengers 'you-get-to-sit-with-your-kids' fee
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    • Poll: Cellphone users dump apps to spare privacy, then lose phones
    • At Tampa convention, protesters can carry guns, but not puppets

     

    Comment

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  • 27
    Aug
    2012
    3:43pm, EDT

    Social media analysis: At the keyboard, Americans slightly prefer Romney

    MSNBC's Richard Lui breaks down Facebook and Twitter for both the Republican and Democratic conventions.

    By M. Alex Johnson, NBC News

    President Barack Obama may lead former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in most presidential polls, but in the social media campaign, Romney has had the edge for months, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of 2 million campaign-related Twitter and Facebook posts.

    M. Alex Johnson M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

    In recent weeks, Obama has generally led Romney by two to seven percentage points in national polls, which carefully select their samples to reflect Americans most engaged in the election and registered to vote.

    The picture is different among Americans who have gone online to talk about the election, however — NBCPolitics.com's analysis indicates that that narrower sample of the country prefers Romney by 36 percent to 32 percent overall and by 51 percent to 49 percent when they're compared head to head:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Since May 29, when he clinched the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has commanded the support of slightly more commenters on social media than has Barack Obama. (None of the Above reflects clear statements of intent to vote for a third candidate or refusal to vote for either. In a direct head-to-head comparison, Romney's lead is 51 percent to 49 percent.)

    As NBCPolitics.com launches a comprehensive daily tracking report on social media sentiment about the 2012 presidential election, the results reveal an intriguing difference between the opinions of Americans who are specifically targeted by scientific polling operations and those who proactively take to their keyboards to broadcast their views without gatekeepers.

    More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com 


    The data are unique among those being reported by national news organizations, whose social media analysis has largely focused on two metrics: "buzz," or how much each candidate is talked about online in general, and "effectiveness," or how extensively each candidate is using social media as a campaign tool.

    NBCPolitics.com's analysis, by contrast, explores the actual content of what is being said, providing a glimpse at what issues are specifically driving people's opinions.

    Reshuffled Republican convention set to proceed on Tuesday

    NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll or other national surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad look at what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both, and why they're saying it.

    GOP elders describe high stakes for Romney in Tampa

    Romney led Obama by 53 percent to 47 percent over the weekend among all comments that expressed a clear intention to vote for one of the two candidates. That margin has been typical ever since May 29, when Romney is generally considered to have sealed the Republican nomination; in all such comment over that time, Romney leads by 51 percent to 49 percent.

    Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., tells NBC News' David Gregory that Mitt Romney needs to focus on women and minorities — advice that is supported by NBC News' social media analysis.

    Several factors could account for the variance from national polls. For one thing, statistical experts have long acknowledged that people are more motivated to speak out when they have a grievance — in other words, opponents of Obama may be more motivated to post than are supporters satisfied with the status. Social media analysis is interested in capturing and reporting that structural divide, while controlled national polls have a different mission: capturing a representative sample that proportionally reflects all opinions.

    Moreover, when commentary on each candidate is broken down into specific issues driving positive and negative assessments, certain themes that have little to do with politics or policy recur: Eight percent to 10 percent of Obama's negative sentiment, for example, always rests on the fact that he is African-American or on the misconception that he is a Muslim.

    Neither factor on its own is enough to register as one of Obama's top negative drivers, but together they are more than enough to compose a bedrock of general opposition that he confronts before legitimate policy disagreements are even factored in, one that helps explain Obama's consistent negative rating of about 60 percent since NBCPolitics.com began tracking the social media campaign in January.

    The flip side, however, is that the passion of such opposition is mirrored in the depth of enthusiasm for Obama. Most favorable sentiment falls into issue-specific categories like health care or the president's perceived role in the recovery from the recession that began in the final year of George W. Bush's presidency:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Topics of positive discussion around Barack Obama are heavily weighted toward specific policy issues, especially health care.

    Romney's appeal, by contrast, is broader (his approval rating has been about 50 percent since he clinched the nomination, 10 points higher than Obama's) but not as deep. Positive sentiment for Romney is heavily weighted toward nonspecific personal or strategic assessments — he seems smart, or he's a Republican with a legitimate shot at winning this time around:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Topics of positive discussion around Mitt Romney are heavily weighted toward general discussions of his electability.

    Another factor is that while mainstream news media and polling firms — like the campaigns themselves — are focusing on the economy, everyday people who sound off on their own initiative prefer to talk about issues that are personal to them: health care, especially, but also social class and women's reproductive rights, according to NBCPolitics.com's analysis.

    Since May 29, when the November matchup was settled, through Sunday, health care has driven the largest proportion of both positive and negative commentary about Obama, and by large margins:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Barack Obama positive social media drivers, May 29-Aug.26.

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Barack Obama negative social media drivers May 29-Aug.26.

    Similarly, the top negative drivers for Romney are predominantly comments on his "otherness" — his wealth, his membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints — and his stance on issues focusing on women's rights:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Mitt Romney negative social media drivers May 29-Aug. 26. ("RINO" is a conservative epithet for candidates who are considered "Republican In Name Only.")

    The picture that emerges is one of a campaign that's as much about personalities as it is about core politics, and the data reflect that Americans love or hate Obama, while they merely like or dislike Romney. Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his vice presidential running mate this month was widely interpreted as a move to sharpen his image; we'll examine how well or poorly that worked later this week.

    Track the social media discussion on NBCPolitics.com

    460 comments

    ah, just because someone doesn't vote on your poll, does not a trend make, seems the grassroots fight is all over the web and your insight does not take every blog, into play i call bogus on this report Next

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  • 10
    Apr
    2012
    7:35pm, EDT

    Online, fans and foes applaud Rick Santorum's withdrawal from presidential race

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    About 20 percent of initial online reaction expressed a clear opinion about Rick Santorum's decision to suspend his campaign, with most of it approving.

    Click for larger image

    By M. Alex Johnson, msnbc.com

    Early reaction among supporters and opponents alike approved of Rick Santorum's withdrawal from the Republican presidential race Tuesday, according to msnbc.com's computer-assisted analysis of online reaction.


    M. Alex Johnson

    M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.


    Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania whose strong showing among conservatives in primaries and caucuses surprised many observers, suspended his campaign Tuesday amid concerns for the health of his daughter Bella, who was hospitalized for complications from the chromosomal disorder Trisomy 18.

    Santorum suspends presidential campaign

    Reaction was swift on social media and political forums. Most of the online discussion simply passed along the news or tried to dispassionately assess the effect on the campaign, according to msnbc.com's analysis of more than 14,500 posts on Twitter, Facebook and forums Tuesday afternoon and evening.


    Among those commenters, the consensus was that Santorum's decision cleared the way for the nomination of former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, as summarized by James Kust, a sportswriter in Eau Claire, Wis.:

    Twitter.com

    But about 20 percent did express clear opinions about Santorum's decision, with those welcoming the news outpacing those expressing disappointment by a 9-to-1 ratio through early Tuesday evening. While many people applauded Santorum for putting his family first, others rejoiced that he was leaving the race.


    Follow @msnbc_us

    (The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a natural-language data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations, including the Pew Research Center and ESPN, to gauge public opinion in new media.)

    For supporters of Santorum, who ran a strongly conservative campaign opposing same-sex marriage and abortion, the announcement reinforced what attracted them to him in the first place.

    One of those was Kelly Clinger of Atlanta, a spokeswoman for the anti-abortion-rights group Silent No More Awareness Campaign:

    Twitter.com

    Others who may not have supported Santorum still sent him good wishes for his daughter, like Eric Johnson, a student at Kennesaw State University in Georgia:

    Twitter.com

    But as you would expect for a candidate whose clear-cut positions drew sharp divisions among voters, much of the reaction was political, and most of that was anti-Santorum, including this tweet from Davis Allen, a student at Arizona State University:

    Twitter.com

    On the political discussion group PeoplesPoliticsIII, a frequent commenter using the name Noserose criticized Santorum for his public expressions of faith:

    peoplespoliticsiii.yuku.com

    A similar sentiment came from Waymon Hudson, a freelance writer from Chicago, who said on Facebook:

    Facebook.com

    And for some, Santorum's withdrawal makes the campaign "much less amusing now," as Wes Platt, an online game writer and designer from Durham, N.C., tweeted.

    That reaction was summarized by Elliott Lerner, a student at Wake Forest University in Winston-Salem, N.C., who moonlights occasionally as a standup comic:

    Twitter.com

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    Follow US News on msnbc.com on Twitter and Facebook

    117 comments

    So, he pulled out early. If only his daddy did the same.

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  • 19
    Mar
    2012
    1:18pm, EDT

    Ron Paul: the incredible shrinking candidate

    By M. Alex Johnson, msnbc.com

    At the risk of annoying supporters of Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, who believe — and argue fervently — that the mainstream news media don't pay attention to their candidate, it must be noted that Twitter and Facebook don't, either.

    Accusations that news organizations are ignoring Paul's presidential campaign are an organizing principle of his supporters, who take to Facebook and Twitter to complain that the only reason Paul isn't leading is a "media blackout."

    Every day, hundreds — and sometimes thousands — of comments like this appear:

    Twitter.com


    M. Alex Johnson

    M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.


    In fact, Paul's rally was covered by the major St. Louis media (here, here and here, for example), but never mind that — perception matters in politics. And the perception in some quarters is that the media are actively trying to sink Paul's campaign.


    That sentiment makes up about 10 percent of posts about Paul this year, according to msnbc.com's computer-assisted analysis of a sample of 9 million Twitter and Facebook posts that have mentioned one of the four major Republican candidates through Friday.


    Follow @msnbc_us

    (The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations to gauge public opinion in new media, among them the Pew Research Center and ESPN. The results aren't a scientific reflection of national opinion. Instead, they're a broad look at what is being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both.)

    Since the beginning of the year, Paul and his campaign have been mentioned about 1.1 million times on Twitter or Facebook:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click to enlarge
    The top line quantifies total mentions of Ron Paul on Twitter and Facebook since Jan. 1. The shaded blue are counts those that specifically take a position on him.

    Here's the problem: Over the same time, more than 3.7 million posts have mentioned former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click to enlarge

    More than 2.2 million have mentioned former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click to enlarge

    And more than 1.9 million have mentioned former Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click to enlarge

    Here's an especially telling comparison, charting posts that state an actual opinion about one of the four candidates since Jan. 1. Paul is the yellow line at the bottom, often clocking in at fewer than 5,000 opinions a day:

    Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click to enlarge

    However much his partisans may complain, it's not just the media that are ignoring Ron Paul.

    More content from msnbc.com and NBC News:

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    Follow US News on msnbc.com on Twitter and Facebook

    720 comments

    That is strange, I went to Ron Paul's page and he has nearly a million likes. Where are you getting your 1.1 million? It is hard for me to believe that he has only been tweeted about 200K times. I do think that the others have been looked up more (they have all the positive and negative stuff, Gingr …

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  • 24
    Feb
    2012
    6:16am, EST

    Rick Santorum leads rivals in Twitter, Facebook buzz, new analysis shows

    Presidential candidate Mitt Romney wasted no time today trying to capitalize on Rick Santorum's performance in Wednesday's debate. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.

    By M. Alex Johnson, msnbc.com

    Rick Santorum is coming under much closer — and more skeptical — scrutiny since he jumped to the top of Republican presidential polls this month, according to a computer-assisted analysis of social media data.

    For the first time, politically engaged users of Twitter and Facebook are buzzing about Santorum more than about any other Republican candidate.


    M. Alex Johnson

    M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.


    Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania, swept Republican voting in Minnesota, Missouri and Colorado on Feb. 7. Although all three contests were essentially beauty contests, with little official impact on the delegate count, Santorum's victories revived his campaign.


    Before Feb. 7, Santorum was generally running third behind former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich of Georgia in most major national polls. Following those contests, he soared to the top of the major national polls, and he has remained there since.

    Santorum's rise has been mirrored on social media, according to msnbc.com's analysis of nearly 2.2 million posts on Twitter and Facebook this month. And as the spotlight has focused on him, it has drawn opponents of his sharp-edged positions out of the shadows.  

    msnbc.com research/M. Alex Johnson; Crimson Hexagon Inc.

    Click the image for the full-size chart.

    Comparison of total numbers of opinions expressed about the Republican candidates the week before the Feb. 7 contests and this week. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is represented by the purple line. Former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania is represented by the orange line.

    The analysis examined posts through Thursday about the four remaining major Republican candidates, filtering out straight news reports and neutral posts, such as tweets noting that a candidate would be making a campaign appearance. The resulting sample was 1.2 million tweets and Facebook posts that expressed clear support for or opposition to one of them.

    In the week leading up to the Feb. 7 contests, those Facebook and Twitter users preferred to talk about Romney by a ratio of more than 6 to 1 over Santorum. 

    Beginning Feb. 8, however, Santorum has been the No. 1 topic of conversation. This week, more than two-fifths of every post expressing an opinion — 41 percent — were about Santorum, compared to 32 percent for Romney, 15 percent for Gingrich and 12 percent for Rep. Ron Paul of Texas.

    Follow the campaign on NBCPolitics.com

    (The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations to gauge public opinion in new media, among them the Pew Research Center and ESPN. The results aren't a scientific reflection of national opinion. Instead, they're a broad look at what is being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both.) 

    Nonpartisan research indicates that Republicans and Democrats use social networking sites in roughly equal proportions. The demographics have gradually been trending older and more conservative as the sites are adopted by a larger proportion of the American public, studies indicate.

    Pew Research Center Internet and American Life Project: Social Media and the 2010 Election (.pdf)

    The msnbc.com analysis suggests that while people are much more enthusiastic about talking about Santorum, they're not any more enthusiastic about the man himself. On Feb. 7, before results of the three contests were known, 42 percent of Santorum's comments were positive to 58 percent negative; Thursday, after a debate Wednesday night in Mesa, Ariz., where Santorum came under sustained attack from Romney and Paul, the breakdown was 38 percent to 62 percent.

    Consistently, the largest driver of sentiment about Santorum is his strong stance against same-sex marriage, making up 18 percent of all opinions expressed about him and 28 percent of all negative sentiment this week — proportions that have remained remarkably consistent since June, when msnbc.com began collecting data.

    In a Facebook post typical of the anti-Santorum commentary, Jay A. Small of Vancouver, Wash., wrote this week:

    From Rick Santorum's website: "Marriage is, and has always been through human history, a union of a man and woman – and for a reason. These unions are special because they are the ones we all depend on to make new life and to connect those new lives to their mom and dad." 

    So, Mr. Santorum, your religion's typical intolerance must then also stand for banning marriage between couples who do not choose, or are not able to procreate.

    First Read: Santorum hits on religious tones in speech

    But other issues are now emerging around which significant opposition is crystallizing. The sentiment that Santorum is "too conservative," particularly in the prominence of his religious views — previously just one of several scattered notions — has broken into double digits this month, rising to 13 percent of all commentary and 20 percent of all negative opinion, such as this tweet by an Alaskan woman who describes herself as a Christian "pro-life supporter":

    Twitter.com

    The picture is different for Romney, who (at least according to msnbc.com's analysis) has yet to give voters a clear reason to vote for or against him. That suggests his supporters could be swayed by other candidates — or that he still could galvanize support with clearly articulated positions.

    'Most electable'?
    In fact, the No. 1 reason social media commentators give for supporting Romney — both this week and going all the way back to June — is their belief that he is the "most electable" Republican in the race, a sentiment that has driven 36 percent of all positive opinions this week:

    Twitter.com

    A quarter cite Romney's competence or leadership; no other issue even makes it into double digits.

    Likewise, opposition to Romney is widely scattered. A quarter of those expressing negative opinions this week cited his wealth, with many suggesting that he is out of touch with the majority of Americans, as in this tweet from Michaele Swiderski, a Tennessee woman who describes herself as a Jesus-loving conservative:

    Twitter.com

    But 15 percent also expressed concern over his Mormon faith, another 15 percent thought he was too closely tied to corporate interests, and 14 percent pinned the RINO label on him — that is, "Republican In Name Only," or not truly conservative.

    Even in Michigan — his native state, which holds an important primary Tuesday — the single most mentioned word in social media posts about Romney this week (after his own name) isn't any political issue or position.

    It's "Santorum."

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    160 comments

    Pretty sure very little of this "buzz" is positive in regards to Santorum and his theocratic agenda.

    Show more
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Bob Sullivan, Columnist, NBC News

I'm a reporter for msnbc.com and I try to write stories that make the world a little bit more fair. My blog, The Red Tape Chronicles, is among the most popular consumer affairs columns on the Web. My recent book, Gotcha Capitalism, was a New York Times best seller. Since 1995, I've written about the troubles created for consumers by both technology, covering topics like privacy, identity theft, computer viruses and hackers.

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