Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC News

Social media campaign sentiment for Tuesday, Oct. 16, most of it before Tuesday night's debate. Click the image for the full version.

President Barack Obama eclipsed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the second presidential debate Tuesday night, commanding the stage in a manner that many people found a reassuring contrast to his performance in their first debate, according to NBC Politics' computer-assisted analysis of more than 1 million debate comments on Twitter and Facebook.

Through midday Wednesday, a large plurality of comments reflected a belief that Obama did better in the debate at Hofstra University in Hempstead, N.Y.:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

That works out to a 58 percent to 42 percent edge for Obama among commenters who expressed a clear opinion.

Sharp exchanges between Obama, Romney at second debate

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

Romney was sharply criticized for his comments on equal opportunities for women, a topic that has been a consistent drag on his appeal since NBC Politics began tracking social media sentiment in the presidential campaign in February. Commenters particularly believed that Romney stumbled badly in asserting the he had reviewed "binders full of women" when assembling his Cabinet when he became governor of Massachusetts in 2003:

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That unusual phrase was the inspiration for an online meme that took off almost as soon as the words came out of Romney's mouth and for thousands of jokes during and after the debate:

Twitter.com — 9:40 p.m. ET

Facebook.com — 5:42 p.m. ET

But many commenters also assessed it seriously as evidence that Romney was dismissive of women:

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Facebook.com — 10:05 p.m. ET

NBC Politics reviewed 1.05 million posts on Twitter and Facebook through noon ET using a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as a traditional survey, which seeks to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

A visualization of the data indicates that the general discussion was focused heavily on Obama, rather than Romney, after what was widely characterized as a lackluster performance during the first debate Oct. 3 in Denver. Even those who said Romney did better Tuesday night did so by drawing direct comparisons to the president, whose name was the single most-cited word in pro-Romney comments:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

Some were put off by Obama's aggressiveness:

Twitter.com — 12:06 a.m. ET

Facebook.com — 10:38 .m. ET

But many more were reassured by Obama's bounce-back from his earlier subdued performance:

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Facebook.com — 11 p.m. ET

The initial consensus was that Obama supporters were relieved — relief that was expressed in hundreds of in-your-face posts like this one:

Twitter.com — 9:19 p.m. ET

Five key issues omitted from first two debates

Social media commentary was fairly closely divided on who did better in Thursday night's vice presidential debate, according to NBC Politics' computer-assisted analysis of more than half a million Twitter and Facebook posts during and after the debate — and people's opinions either way largely came down to what they thought about Joe Biden's hyperkinetic performance.

Analysis through noon ET Friday suggested that a plurality of commenters thought Biden did better than Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

That works out to a 53 percent to 47 percent edge for Biden among commenters who expressed clear opinion.

(NBC Politics analyzed 517,000 posts using a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as a traditional survey, which seeks to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.)

More social media analysis from NBC Politics

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

Generally speaking, pro-Biden comment was straightforward: He did better than Ryan, and he may have helped to make up some of the ground President Barack Obama was perceived to have lost in his debate last week with Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney:

Twitter.com — 9:25 p.m. ET

Facebook.com — 11:28 p.m. ET

But pro-Ryan commentary was very different. Even people who thought he did better were likely to characterize their opinions in reaction to Biden, rather than highlight what impressed them about Ryan — much of whose favorable sentiment was expressed as annoyance at the vice president.

Biden plays aggressor in debate as Ryan argues GOP case

A representation of key words in comments that said Ryan did better illustrates the degree to which his performance was defined in relation to Biden's. Notice that the word "Biden" is fully as prominent as the word "Ryan":

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

In sharp contrast, "Ryan" shows up far less prominently in the reciprocal visualization of key words in comments that said Biden did better (it's nestled in the middle of the cluster on the left of the image):

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

A different visualization gives a better idea of why pro-Ryan commenters were pro-Ryan: They found Biden's interruptions and exasperated reactions — captured in split-screen throughout the 90 minutes of the televised debate — to be rude and condescending:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC Politics

Facebook.com — 10:48 p.m. ET

Twitter.com — 9:29 p.m. ET

PhotoBlog: Joe Biden's laughing creates a lot of debate after the vice presidential debate

Almost as widely discussed a figure was the moderator, Martha Raddatz of ABC News, who was either tough and fair or in the tank for Biden, depending upon who you thought did better:

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The question remaining to be answered is whether the debate will have made any substantial difference. Many commenters remarked that while they thought one man or the other did better, the debate was unlikely to sway Election Day preferences — a sentiment that was best summed up in this observation:

Facebook.com — 10:48 a.m. ET

Social media election sentiment for Thursday, Oct. 4. Click the image for the full report.

The immediate consensus that Mitt Romney won Wednesday's presidential debate has eroded significantly as fact-checkers have weighed in and supporters of President Barack Obama have fought back, according to NBCPolitics' computer-assisted analysis of more than 1.3 million post-debate comments on social media.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The analysis suggests that as debate over a news event continues unmediated over time, the impact of the conventional wisdom of journalists and partisan commentators can be mitigated.

Before the debate, Romney partisans — never shy about criticizing what many of them see as the news media's bias against Republicans — had predicted that Obama would be declared the "winner" regardless of how it unfolded:

Twitter.com — 8:55 p.m. ET Oct. 3

But as soon as the debate had finished Wednesday night, commentators and television analysts — including some generally considered sympathetic to Obama — agreed that the president had lost:

Twitter.com — 10:55 p.m. ET Oct. 3

As the consensus spread through the news cycle, it was echoed on Twitter and Facebook on Thursday, according to NBCPolitics' analysis, which examined slightly more than 1.3 million postings beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, when the debate concluded, through 11 a.m. ET Friday.

NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as traditional surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

Obama took a beating Thursday, reflecting the view that he had been passive and had passed up opportunities to attack Romney:

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Twitter.com — 10:40 p.m. ET Oct. 3

Twitter.com — 10:12 p.m. ET Oct. 3

A visual representation of the discussion in the 90 minutes immediately after the debate, as pundits chewed it over on TV postgame shows, indicates the breadth of consensus. Notice that even when people talked about Obama, one of the primary subtopics was "Romney Won The Debate":

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Now look again. Even as Romney was being hailed as the victor in the minutes immediately afterward, a small question was already being raised about "Facts."

By late Thursday afternoon, those questions had become prominent, as commenters cited analyses by partisan and nonpartisan fact-checkers:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

Particularly influential was a commentary Thursday morning by the liberal blog Think Progress:

Pundits from both sides of the aisle have lauded Mitt Romney's strong debate performance, praising his preparedness and ability to challenge President Obama's policies and accomplishments. But Romney only accomplished this goal by repeatedly misleading viewers. He spoke for 38 minutes of the 90 minute debate and told at least 27 myths.

Arguments like that planted the idea that Romney had "lied his way to victory," an idea that Obama supporters began spreading with enthusiasm:

Facebook.com — 7:24 a.m. Oct. 4

Twitter.com — 12:07 a.m. ET Oct. 4

By Friday morning, the counterargument that Obama had actually won on substance had taken root, with online sentiment now favoring the president:

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A visual representation illustrates the shift:

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Facebook.com — 6:20 a.m. Oct. 5

Facebook.com — 7:24 a.m. Oct. 5

The analysis suggests that Twitter and Facebook can be powerful disseminators of opinion once commenters have time to digest the news and marshal their arguments, as was efficiently perceived in this comment:

Twitter.com — 9:48 p.m. ET Oct. 4

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

Social media campaign analysis for Tuesday, Oct. 2. Click the image for the full daily report.

Throughout a summer of political turmoil over the budget, taxes, national security and gaffes, one issue — health care — has consistently defined the presidential campaign as President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney head into their first debate Wednesday evening, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of more than 3 million comments on Twitter and Facebook.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

Every day since June 28 — when the Supreme Court upheld the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, which Obama signed into law in 2010 — "Health Care" has been the No. 1 driver of conversation about the president, making up more than a quarter of positive commentary, according to the analysis:

Among negative commenters, "Obamacare" has consistently been the top driver, as well, only occasionally trumped by "Gas Prices":

Taken together, the two categories make up slightly more than 44 percent of all commentary on Obama over the 3+-month period, an emphasis that's easy to see in this visual representation of all election conversation around the president:

For this report, NBCPolitics.com analyzed 3.46 million social media posts using ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

It isn't the same as a traditional survey, which seeks to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

More than three months after the court's decision, and even as the issue has receded in media coverage, health care is still what they're talking about:

For Romney, the debate may offer an opportunity to more clearly define himself. Over the same 3+-month period, primary drivers of positive conversation have emphasized Romney's personal characteristics over specific issues:

Critics of Romney have also zeroed in on their general perception of him. The leading negative topic — by just 1 percentage point — has been "Women's Issues" (generally access to abortion and equal pay). Right after that come questions about his connection to "real Americans," his convictions and his religion.

Likewise — and in contrast with Obama — the visual representation of all 1.14 million posts about Romney indicates a high interest in whether he can win in November, as opposed to his stands on specific issues:

NBCNews.com will live-stream the debate from Denver at 9 p.m. ET.

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBC News

Social media report on the campaign for Monday, Sept. 10. Click the image for the full-size report.

At their national convention last week, Democrats had significant success redefining Republican vice presidential nominee Paul Ryan as a flip-flopper on the budget and the economy, his marquee issues, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of hundreds of thousands of Twitter and Facebook posts.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The analysis indicates that — at least among Americans who are active on social media — the biggest swings in sentiment involved Ryan and President Barack Obama. During the two-week convention period, Obama twice trailed Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney by 8 points in a head-to-head comparison, but he had caught up to a dead heat by Monday:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Head-to-head voting preference for Barack Obama and Mitt Romney for Aug. 27 through Sept.10.

NBCPolitics.com analyzed about 1.5 million posts using a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as traditional surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion. Instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?

General opinions about Obama, Romney and Vice President Joe Biden remained relatively consistent throughout the analysis period, positive sentiment for all of whom moved no more than 4 points on any given day:

Obama:

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Positive and negative sentiment for Barack Obama for Aug. 27 through Sept. 10.

Romney:

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Positive and negative sentiment for Mitt romney for Aug. 27 through Sept. 10.

Biden:

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Positive and negative sentiment for Joe Biden for Aug. 27 through Sept. 10.

Ryan was a wild card, swinging from a favorability rating near 50 percent around the end of the Republican convention to the mid-30s by the time the Democrats had finished in Charlotte:

Ryan:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Positive and negative sentiment for Paul Ryan for Aug. 27 through Sept. 10.

Democrats spent the week of their convention depicting Ryan as a talks-tough-but-votes-weak vacillator on the economy and an opponent of women's rights. By Monday — after the convention and a weekend of punditry — Ryan's votes for the Troubled Asset Relief Program and President George W. Bush's budgets dominated the negative discussion, along with significant criticism of his opposition to abortion:

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Negative topics of conversation around Paul Ryan for Sept. 4 through Sept. 10.

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Ryan and the Republicans can take away one positive: Overall, specific commentary about Ryan continued to dwarf specific discussion about Biden, by a ratio of nearly 4-to-1 during the two-week convention period. Even last Thursday, the day Biden addressed the Democratic convention, Ryan was the topic of 55 percent of commentary that was specifically about either man.

So while people, by and large, may not be saying nice things about him, at least they're talking about Paul Ryan.

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

Overall election sentiment Aug. 28, 2012. Click the image for the full-size version.

Paul Ryan was getting hammered on social media for what commenters say was his dishonesty in his address Wednesday night at the Republican National Convention, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of thousands of Twitter and Facebook posts through midday Thursday. But the controversy didn't appear to be changing many people's votes.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

Ryan, whom many Americans were getting their first long look at as his party's vice presidential nominee, made several assertions Wednesday night that many nonpartisan watchdogs and news organizations called mostly false or misleading.

Ryan was most severely criticized for two attacks on President Barack Obama:

• Ryan said Obama broke a promise to make sure that a General Motors plant in Janesville, Wis. — Ryan's hometown — would stay in business. The plant did close, but as was reported at the time, it ended operations in December 2008, before Obama even took office.
• Ryan also criticized Obama for doing "exactly nothing" with the recommendations of a bipartisan commission he appointed to review the nation's debt crisis. He neglected to mention that he was a member of the commission — and that he voted against the recommendations himself.

NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as traditional surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

For this report, the sample collected posts between the beginning of Ryan's speech Wednesday night and 1 p.m. ET Thursday.

Representative posts during that period and a visual representation of discussion topics indicate that "lies" appears prominently in negative commentary on Ryan's address. So do slams at his voting record in Congress, a consistent driver of negative sentiment in NBCPolitics.com's social media data since his selection as Mitt Romney's running mate Aug. 11:

Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com

General topics of negative conversation around Paul Ryan, 8 p.m. ET Wednesday to 1 p.m. ET Thursday. Some cells record rebuttals to positive commentary.

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Positive comment was mainly expressed in general terms, in sharp contrast to the specific complaints others had:

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General topics of positive conversation around Paul Ryan, 8 p.m. ET Wednesday to 1 p.m. ET Thursday. Some cells record rebuttals to negative commentary.

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The reception to Ryan's speech doesn't appear to changed many people's minds, however, according to NBCPolitics.com's separate monitor tracking Election Day voting intentions.

Before the address, 36 percent of social media posts expressing a clear preference backed the Romney-Ryan ticket, compared with 33 percent that supported Obama and Vice President Joe Biden. In the 17 hours afterward, that gap had narrowed by only one point — to 35 percent to 34 percent.

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Daily social media tracking report for Monday, Aug. 27. Click the image for the full-size version.

Many Americans have taken to Twitter and Facebook to charge that Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the Republican vice presidential nominee, isn't as conservative as he's made out to be, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of social media commentary since his selection as Mitt Romney's running mate this month.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

NBCPolitics.com's social media analysis indicates that criticism of his voting record in the House — from both the left and the right — is the leading driver of negative commentary about Ryan, the ranking Republican on the Budget Committee, who has been embraced by many in his party as its leading deficit hawk.

Nearly a third of negative commentary on Twitter and Facebook since Ryan emerged on the ticket notes his support for the Troubled Asset Relief Program — the $700 billion bank bailout that President George W. Bush signed into law in October 2008 — and his votes for federal budgets endorsed by Bush:

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Such posts have helped make Ryan's alleged hypocrisy on the budget the No. 1 complaint among social media commenters — more prominent, even, than moderate and liberal objections to his proposals to dramatically cut benefits, including Medicare:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Negative sentiment drivers for Rep. Paul Ryan Aug. 10-27.

NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as traditional surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.

NBCPolitics.com social media analysis: At the keyboard, Americans slightly prefer Romney

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Since Aug. 10, the volume of online commentary about Ryan has dwarfed that about Vice President Joe Biden — by a ratio of nearly 12:1. That stands to reason: The vice presidential data cover only the 18 days since Ryan's selection broke in the media, a period during which he has been in a bright spotlight as Americans get to know him. And as part of the challenger's ticket, Ryan has a more prominent role as a campaign spokesman than Biden does, generating even more disproportionate coverage and commentary.

Overall, Ryan sentiment has swung within a narrow band of 45 percent to 49 percent positive since the day after his selection, when 53 percent of Twitter and Facebook commentary was favorable.

Track the social media discussion on NBCPolitics.com

Commentary about Biden has been not only less prominent but also more critical, running at 65 percent negative since Aug. 10. Biden's reputation for misspeaking is his biggest Achilles' heel:

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But a surprising proportion of his negative sentiment has to do with his religion:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Negative sentiment drivers for Vice President Joe Biden Aug. 10-27.

In 2008, Biden's Catholicism was discussed and debated, but it wasn't seen as a major factor in the campaign. Indeed, exit polling data indicate that the Obama-Biden ticket won 54 percent of the Catholic vote in 2008 — almost identical to the 53 percent the ticket won as a whole.

Ryan is also Catholic, which means that for the first time, Catholic voters are being asked to consider two national candidates who share their faith. Many of them are siding with Ryan, whose positions on abortion rights and same-sex marriage align much more closely with Vatican doctrine:

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A smaller proportion of comment represents the "social justice Catholic" viewpoint, with which Biden has aligned himself:

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Track the social media discussion on NBCPolitics.com

President Barack Obama may lead former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in most presidential polls, but in the social media campaign, Romney has had the edge for months, according to NBCPolitics.com's computer-assisted analysis of 2 million campaign-related Twitter and Facebook posts.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for NBC News. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

In recent weeks, Obama has generally led Romney by two to seven percentage points in national polls, which carefully select their samples to reflect Americans most engaged in the election and registered to vote.

The picture is different among Americans who have gone online to talk about the election, however — NBCPolitics.com's analysis indicates that that narrower sample of the country prefers Romney by 36 percent to 32 percent overall and by 51 percent to 49 percent when they're compared head to head:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Since May 29, when he clinched the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney has commanded the support of slightly more commenters on social media than has Barack Obama. (None of the Above reflects clear statements of intent to vote for a third candidate or refusal to vote for either. In a direct head-to-head comparison, Romney's lead is 51 percent to 49 percent.)

As NBCPolitics.com launches a comprehensive daily tracking report on social media sentiment about the 2012 presidential election, the results reveal an intriguing difference between the opinions of Americans who are specifically targeted by scientific polling operations and those who proactively take to their keyboards to broadcast their views without gatekeepers.

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com 

The data are unique among those being reported by national news organizations, whose social media analysis has largely focused on two metrics: "buzz," or how much each candidate is talked about online in general, and "effectiveness," or how extensively each candidate is using social media as a campaign tool.

NBCPolitics.com's analysis, by contrast, explores the actual content of what is being said, providing a glimpse at what issues are specifically driving people's opinions.

Reshuffled Republican convention set to proceed on Tuesday

NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as the NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll or other national surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad look at what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both, and why they're saying it.

GOP elders describe high stakes for Romney in Tampa

Romney led Obama by 53 percent to 47 percent over the weekend among all comments that expressed a clear intention to vote for one of the two candidates. That margin has been typical ever since May 29, when Romney is generally considered to have sealed the Republican nomination; in all such comment over that time, Romney leads by 51 percent to 49 percent.

Several factors could account for the variance from national polls. For one thing, statistical experts have long acknowledged that people are more motivated to speak out when they have a grievance — in other words, opponents of Obama may be more motivated to post than are supporters satisfied with the status. Social media analysis is interested in capturing and reporting that structural divide, while controlled national polls have a different mission: capturing a representative sample that proportionally reflects all opinions.

Moreover, when commentary on each candidate is broken down into specific issues driving positive and negative assessments, certain themes that have little to do with politics or policy recur: Eight percent to 10 percent of Obama's negative sentiment, for example, always rests on the fact that he is African-American or on the misconception that he is a Muslim.

Neither factor on its own is enough to register as one of Obama's top negative drivers, but together they are more than enough to compose a bedrock of general opposition that he confronts before legitimate policy disagreements are even factored in, one that helps explain Obama's consistent negative rating of about 60 percent since NBCPolitics.com began tracking the social media campaign in January.

The flip side, however, is that the passion of such opposition is mirrored in the depth of enthusiasm for Obama. Most favorable sentiment falls into issue-specific categories like health care or the president's perceived role in the recovery from the recession that began in the final year of George W. Bush's presidency:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Topics of positive discussion around Barack Obama are heavily weighted toward specific policy issues, especially health care.

Romney's appeal, by contrast, is broader (his approval rating has been about 50 percent since he clinched the nomination, 10 points higher than Obama's) but not as deep. Positive sentiment for Romney is heavily weighted toward nonspecific personal or strategic assessments — he seems smart, or he's a Republican with a legitimate shot at winning this time around:

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

Topics of positive discussion around Mitt Romney are heavily weighted toward general discussions of his electability.

Another factor is that while mainstream news media and polling firms — like the campaigns themselves — are focusing on the economy, everyday people who sound off on their own initiative prefer to talk about issues that are personal to them: health care, especially, but also social class and women's reproductive rights, according to NBCPolitics.com's analysis.

Since May 29, when the November matchup was settled, through Sunday, health care has driven the largest proportion of both positive and negative commentary about Obama, and by large margins:

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Barack Obama positive social media drivers, May 29-Aug.26.

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Barack Obama negative social media drivers May 29-Aug.26.

Similarly, the top negative drivers for Romney are predominantly comments on his "otherness" — his wealth, his membership in the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints — and his stance on issues focusing on women's rights:

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Mitt Romney negative social media drivers May 29-Aug. 26. ("RINO" is a conservative epithet for candidates who are considered "Republican In Name Only.")

The picture that emerges is one of a campaign that's as much about personalities as it is about core politics, and the data reflect that Americans love or hate Obama, while they merely like or dislike Romney. Romney's selection of Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his vice presidential running mate this month was widely interpreted as a move to sharpen his image; we'll examine how well or poorly that worked later this week.

Track the social media discussion on NBCPolitics.com

Most social media users approve of the Supreme Court's health care ruling last week but believe it will help Republicans in the November election, according to msnbc.com's computer-assisted analysis of tens of thousands of posts on Twitter and Facebook.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The court upheld nearly all of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act on a 5-4 vote Thursday. The consensus in news reports and among political pundits was that the ruling was a major victory for President Barack Obama.

But among people who use social networking sites, 56 percent of those who stated a clear opinion on the decision's political impact said they thought it was more likely to energize Republican voters in November. Forty-four percent said it was likely to be more helpful for Democrats.

(Msnbc.com analyzed 175,000 Twitter and Facebook posts mentioning the ruling from midday Thursday through midday Monday. The analysis uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which is used by many media and research organizations to gauge public opinion in new media. Crimson Hexagon reports a 3-percentage-point margin of sampling error for this type of online sentiment analysis.)

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

Overall, 60 percent of online commenters approved of the decision, with many of them telling stories about how it would have an immediate impact on their families.

Supreme Court upholds health care law
Health care ruling could leave poorest Americans at greatest risk

Writing on Facebook, Cathy Weller of Cocoa Beach, Fla., described herself as "a fiscal conservative, libertarian leaning, social progressive." She wrote of losing her health insurance when she lost her job and the difficulty she had insuring herself because of her pre-existing condition — cancer:

All of a sudden I found myself researching health insurance options. Imagine my surprise to find there were none. None. Not a few expensive ones, but none. It didn't matter if I was willing to pay $10,000 a month for health insurance, it was just not available to me, anywhere for any amount of money. This was the first time I personally came up against the issue of health insurance availability having worked constantly up to that point and always having employer offered insurance.

Of opponents of the act, Weller wrote: "I wonder at their sense of security. Do they really imagine themselves to be invulnerable to what so many fellow citizens are going through?"

Nearly a quarter of those supporting the decision stressed its impact on ending what they see as a bias against women in the current health care system.

Among them was Lisa Kitinoja of Eugene, Ore., who administers a nonprofit organization:

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Many opponents complained that the act would make health care more expensive, including Darren Perkins of Kansas City, Mo.:

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Others saw it as unconstitutionally giving the federal government too much control over people's lives, like Andrew Hastings, an engineer in San Diego:

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The 60 percent-to-40 percent split among social media users in favor of the ruling runs counter to public opinion surveys, which generally indicate that a slight majority opposes the health care act. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday put support at 48 percent.

The social media results, however, could be a reflection of rising support since the Supreme Court ruling. The Reuters/Ipsos poll, for example, found that before Thursday, support was only 43 percent before rising to 48 percent. (Support in msnbc.com's analysis also showed support trending up since the ruling, hitting 62 percent Monday.)

They also may be explained by the demographics of the social media audience. The Pew Internet & American Life Project, which uses ForSight in its statistical analysis of social media, reported in March that people who identify themselves as liberal are more likely to use social networking sites than are people who self identify as conservatives.

Even so, commenters concluded that Republicans would benefit from the ruling politically more than Democrats, by 56 percent to 44 percent.

Mike Wasylik, a lawyer in Tampa, Fla., wrote:

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Chris Twining, a computer consultant in Wildomar, Calif., explained on Facebook:

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And Michael Gorka of Newport News, Va., said:

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Real-world evidence may support that analysis — Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney's campaign reported that Friday was its biggest fundraising day from individual donors so far.

More content from msnbc.com and NBC News:

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• Is gay marriage debate driving young people from church?
• Military plane crashes while battling South Dakota wildfire
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• Parent: Kids watched porn, masturbated in class

Follow US News on msnbc.com on Twitter and Facebook

Crimson Hexagon Inc.

While general online sentiment strongly favored President Barack Obama's statement, judgments of its political impact were much more closely divided.

Online reaction to President Barack Obama's endorsement of same-sex marriage is running 3-to-1 in his favor, but commenters are sharply divided over whether it will help him or hurt him in November, according to a computer-assisted analysis of hundreds of thousands of social media posts in the first 24 hours after the announcement.

M. Alex Johnson is a reporter for msnbc.com. Follow him on Twitter and Facebook.

The analysis examined 532,000 posts on Twitter and Facebook, about 300,000 of which expressed a clear opinion about Obama's statement. Of those, 72 percent approved of the announcement.

(The analysis — which ran from 3 p.m. ET Wednesday, when ABC News broadcast its interview with Obama, through 3 p.m. ET Thursday — used a tool called ForSight, a natural-language data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc. For this type of sentiment analysis, Crimson Hexagon reports a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points among the self-selected social media audience. Click here for a detailed explanation.)

More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com

While Obama won widespread praise online, a significant proportion of it was grudging.

Many supporters of same-sex marriage criticized the president for not having announced his position until now, 3½ years into his presidency. Fully a third of those agreeing with the decision did so while asking, in essence, "What took you so long?" 

Twitter.com

Twitter.com

A further 18 percent of those agreeing with the announcement complained that the president hadn't gone far enough, with some noting that he stopped short of taking any concrete action, such as proposing legislation or issuing an executive order to have federal agencies recognize same-sex marriages.

Twitter.com

Twitter.com

By contrast, opponents of Obama's announcement strongly indicated that they believed it was a politically cynical move.
Nearly half of those opposing the move — 47 percent — expressed sentiments like these:

Facebook.com

Twitter.com

Interestingly, about a fifth of the sample — well more than 100,000 people — chose to analyze the announcement not so much on its merits but on whom it would benefit in the general election. And by 52 percent to 48 percent, a slim majority of those thought it would likely help Obama and other Democrats.

Twitter.com

Twitter.com

The social media analysis is also notable for its variance from public opinion at large. Recent polls generally indicate that only about half of Americans believe same-sex marriages should be legal; the most recent Gallup Poll, taken May 3-6, for example, showed a 50 percent to 48 percent split.

Following Obama's support of gay marriage, a flood of emotions

A possible explanation lies in the makeup of the social media audience. 

The Pew Internet & American Life Project, which uses ForSight in its statistical analysis of social media, reported in March that people who identify themselves as liberal are more likely to use social networking sites than are people who identify as conservatives.

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Moreover, marketing surveys indicate that people who identify themselves as gay, lesbian, bisexual or transgendered are more frequent users of social media than the population as a whole.

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