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  • At West Point, Biden touts foreign policy, warns of new challenges

    Lee Celano / Getty Images

    Vice President Joe Biden hands a West Point graduate her a diploma on Saturday.

    WEST POINT, NY -- At the graduation ceremony of some of the most elite new members of the U.S. military, Vice President Joe Biden on Saturday praised the Obama administration's efforts to end wars abroad, saying the military drawdowns allow for a "rebalance" of foreign policy.  

    Addressing newly minted second lieutenants at West Point's Michie Stadium, Biden spoke at length about the Obama administration's foreign policy achievements: ending the Iraq War, killing Osama bin Laden, and banning torture because "it was the right thing to do."  

    "President Obama and I came into office determined to end the war in Iraq responsibly, and today our troops are home," he said.


    Highlighting emerging issues like China's economic might and the threat of cyber attacks, the vice president said that the winding down of the Iraq and Afghan conflicts allows the United States more flexibility to address new factors that influence the global landscape.  

    Vice President Joe Biden speaks to West Point graduates on Saturday.

    "Winding down these long wars has enabled us to replace and rebalance our foreign policy, [to] take on the full range of challenges that will shape the 21st century," he said.  

    Among those challenges is the ever-evolving relationship between the United States and China, he said, noting that the two countries don't "always see eye to eye." 

    Speaking to a group of veterans, Vice President Joseph Biden recalled the emotions that overcame him when he received a call in 1972 informing him that his wife and daughter had perished in a traffic accident.

    "There's no doubt that America can compete, and America will win whenever and wherever the playing field is level," Biden said.  

    Although Biden did not mention the ongoing election fight, he echoed some lines from his past campaign speeches, including a heaping of praise on those who executed the mission to kill Osama bin Laden last year.  

    "These warriors sent a message to the world that if you harm America, we will follow you to the end of the earth," Biden said.  

    And he referenced the day of the attack masterminded by bin Laden, calling the class of graduates members of a "9/11 generation" that will be remembered as America's greatest.  

    "Your generation, the 9/11 generation, is more than worthy of the proud legacy that you will inherit today," he told graduates. 

  • FACT CHECK: Class sizes do matter

     

    Mitt Romney found himself on the opposite side of a skeptical audience on Thursday in Philadelphia, after he seemed to dismiss the impact of class sizes on student achievement.

    Mario Tama / Getty Images

    Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets students in a music class at Universal Bluford Charter School on May 24 in Philadelphia, Pa.

    At an event capping a weeklong messaging effort surrounding the presumptive Republican nominee’s education policy, Romney cited a study by management consulting firm McKinsey to back up his argument that the number of students per teacher in a classroom wasn’t the most important predictor of academic success.

    But the former Massachusetts governor’s assertion differs from the evidence produced in large, recent, peer-reviewed academic research showing that class size does, in fact, impact student outcomes.

    “Well, if you had a class of five that would be terrific; if you had a class of 50 that’s impossible,” Romney said, when asked his view on class sizes. “So there are points where I think those who have looked at schools in this country and schools around the world, McKinsey for instance … went around the world and looked at schools in Singapore and Finland and South Korea and the United States and looked at differences and said gosh, schools that are the highest-performing in the world, their classroom sizes are about the same as in the United States. So it’s not the classroom size that is driving the success of those school systems.”

    The Republican presidential candidate visited a West Philadelphia charter school

    A teacher in the audience pushed back, citing a landmark Tennessee study conducted by a Harvard researcher in the 1980s – famous in the world of education research – which looked at the Tennessee STAR program, or Student/Teacher Achievement Ratio, in which the state reduced class sizes across the board by about a third, from 22-25 students per teacher down to 13-17.

    The study of the program -- conducted when current U.S. Sen. Lamar Alexander, a Republican, was governor – found “compelling evidence that smaller classes help, at least in early grades.”

    Romney didn’t respond directly to the teacher or study during the event in Philadelphia.

     

    Political food fight

    The Obama campaign tried to capitalize. “Larger Class Sizes Are the Answer to a Better Education? On What Planet?” blared an email from Obama spokeswoman Lis Smith.

    That was echoed on a conference call today. “Romney insisted in face of logic, that small classes don't help,” said Philadelphia Mayor Michael Nutter. “Two years ago, [he] claimed that effort to reduce class size may hurt. I'm not sure what universe he's operating in. Every parent knows that smaller classes are preferable. Everybody knows that except Romney.”

    But Romney did acknowledge in Philadelphia that having the smallest classes are optimal, but that they’re not the driver of success in the classroom.

    The Romney campaign pointed to Obama’s Education Secretary Arne Duncan, who noted – not as a matter of personal opinion, but of official administration policy – that class sizes should be increased.

    “In our blueprint for reauthorizing the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, we support shifting away from class-sized based reduction that is not evidence-based,” Duncan said, according to a transcript of Duncan’s speech, posted by Education Week, at the conservative think tank, the American Enterprise Institute.

    Duncan has also called class size "a sacred cow," "and I think we need to take it on," said in March 2011. He later said, "My point there was that I think the quality of the teacher is so hugely important. I've said things like, give me the parent, give me an option of 28 children in a class with a phenomenal teacher or 22 children in a class with a mediocre teacher. If I was given that choice, I would choose a larger class size."

    After the Obama conference call, Romney spokesman Ryan Williams boasted on Twitter: “If @BarackObama believes what his campaign is saying, he should fire Arne Duncan for supporting @MittRomney's view on class size.”

    Romney campaign spokeswoman Andrea Saul released the following statement:

    “If President Obama is as focused on class size as his campaign seems to be, his outdated view of education reform puts him at odds with leaders like Michelle Rhee, Bill Gates, and his own secretary of education -- all of whom have said that improving teacher quality gives kids the best opportunity to learn. Secretary Duncan even said that he ‘would choose a larger class size’ if it meant having a better teacher in the room. President Obama should be ashamed that his campaign is launching such cheap political attacks at the expense of a serious discussion about education policy. If he actually believes what his campaign is saying, he should fire his education secretary for supporting the same view on class size that Governor Romney is advancing.”

    A broader reading of Duncan’s remarks before AEI shows he believes smaller classes are a good thing, but because of state budget restrictions, school districts need to find ways to adjust.

    “Consider the debate around reducing class size,” he said. “Up through third grade, research shows a small class size of 13 to 17 students can boost achievement. Parents, like myself, understandably like smaller classes. We would like to have small classes for everyone -- and it is good news that the size of classes in the U.S. has steadily shrunk for decades. But in secondary schools, districts may be able to save money without hurting students, while allowing modest but smartly targeted increases in class size.”

    In fact, research bares out that smaller class sizes have resulted in gains in K-3, but results are either inconclusive, not significant, or non-existent for older children.

    The Obama’s campaign’s Smith responded this way, in an email to First Read: “Both experience and evidence show that smaller classes are better than bigger classes, especially for young children.  But class sizes aren’t the only thing that matters, and President Obama and Secretary Duncan are also working to raise academic expectations, invest in teacher quality, and turn around struggling schools. That’s very different from Mitt Romney, who thinks that smaller class sizes don’t  matter or can even be harmful.”

     

    Taking on unions

    Romney has accused Obama of being held captive by teachers unions, but positions like the one taken above by his education secretary, as well as his administration’s push on merit pay, teacher evaluations, and support for charter schools, have rankled those unions.

    Obama has said, since the 2008 campaign, that reforms were necessary but that he would try to work “with” unions. Romney has taken a combative tone and blamed unions for promoting class size at a September Republican presidential debate in Florida.

    “[A]ll the talk about we need smaller classroom size, look that's promoted by the teachers’ unions to hire more teachers,” Romney said, adding, “[A]s president, I will stand up to the National Teachers Unions.”

    Romney’s tough talk toward labor has been a hallmark of not just his education plan, but his overall economic strategy. It’s understandable, in some ways, why Romney, like many mayors and governors of both parties across the country, would want to cut out teachers’ unions. As with many businesses, unions often prove to be an obstacle in an executive’s ability to enact wholesale changes or implement new programs – like pay for performance (merit pay), or fire teachers regardless of whether they’re underperforming.

     

    Body of evidence

    Parental involvement, effective teachers, and competent administrators are certainly major factors in how well students do. But studies have found that class sizes, when reduced by more than a couple students, especially in early grades, can have an impact on student achievement.

    A study conducted in Tennessee -- published in April 2011 in the Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, conducted by researchers from the University of Chicago and Virginia Commonwealth University -- found improvements as a result of smaller classes in “reading, mathematics, listening, and word recognition test scores” in early grades.

    A California study, conducted by economics professors at the University of Kentucky and Amherst College and published in The Journal of Human Resources, also found that test scores improved -- even when taking into consideration the number of inexperienced teachers that had to be hired to fill the 25,000 jobs created by the state’s $1 billion effort to reduce class sizes. After a few years – when the new teachers gained experience – the cost of hiring those teachers was net-even.

    “[T]here is little or no support for the hypotheses that the need to hire large numbers of teachers following the adoption of CSR [class-size reduction] led to a lasting reduction in the quality of instruction,” according to the study. “Overall, the findings suggest that CSR increased achievement in the early grades for all demographic groups…”

    And on cost: “From a purely distributional point of view, the benefits of CSR were allocated in a quite regressive manner in the short term but in a close to neutral manner as of six years following the implementation of the policy.”

    A Florida study, which followed up on the California results with a study of Florida’s similar effort, conducted by a Harvard researcher and government professor, found the class-size reduction had a minimal impact. The results “indicate that the effects … on cognitive and non-cognitive outcomes were small at best and most likely close to zero,” according to the study.

    But as it also points out, class sizes were only reduced by two or three students per class: “One might not expect a large effect given that over three years class size was only reduced by 1.9 students more in the treated districts than in the comparison districts, but I also find no evidence of positive CSR effects in grades seven and eight, where the relative reduction in class size was three students.”

    The Romney campaign, for its part, when asked about these studies, didn’t deny that class sizes impact student achievement; it’s just not “his focus.”

    “The governor said, ‘Just getting smaller classrooms didn't seem to be the key,’” a Romney aide told First Read by email. “His policies address ensuring better teachers in the classroom and rewarding their success which is a very important part of improving student outcomes. That’s his focus.”

    The Florida study also notes that providing additional teacher resources and supports, like the STAR Program did, combined with smaller class sizes, could have also had an impact: “It is impossible to disentangle the effect of reducing class size from the effect of providing additional resources.”

    That’s something the original Tennessee study made a point of as well: “The benefits derived from these smaller classes persist leaves open the possibility that additional or different educational devices could lead to still further gains. For example, applying to small classes the technique of within-class grouping in which the teacher handles each small group separately for short periods could strengthen the educational process (essentially a second-order use of small class size). The point is that small classes can be used jointly with other teaching techniques which may add further gains.”

    Like in many things, and especially in education, there’s no magic bullet. It’s a combination of a variety of tools, including class size.

  • This summer in Congress, electioneering meets lawmaking

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., speaks to reporters following a weekly strategy session, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, May 8, 2012.

     

    The distinction between legislating and politicking will blur this summer on Capitol Hill, as House Republicans lay out a laundry list of priorities largely intended to set the stage for this fall’s election.

    Majority Leader Eric Cantor, R-Va., outlined the GOP's priorities through August in a memo to fellow Republican lawmakers on Friday.

    The agenda calls for votes on some items of substance -- reforms of the U.S. Postal Service and Food and Drug Administration  among them -- but seems largely intended to shape Republicans' messaging efforts when they stand for re-election.

    "In line with our underlying principles for legislation, the House will move forward this summer with a number of proposals aimed at addressing job creation and the economy, reducing spending, and shrinking the size of the federal government while protecting and expanding liberty," Cantor wrote. "Above all, we must continue to focus on economic growth and small business -- producing results that get Americans back to work."

    But the most consequential votes taken by the House are set for this summer, and very few of the proposals likely to pass through the House are expected to become law. The period between late June and the yearly August recess will be dominated by pillars of the GOP's re-election effort: energy, taxes, and regulations.

    Republicans will push legislation to expand energy exploration after Father's Day, just as the driving season kicks into high gear for motorists and gas prices are set to explode.

    Read Cantor's memorandum on the majority leader's website

    In July, Republicans will embark on a number of efforts, many spearheaded by the freshmen lawmakers first elected in 2010, to eliminate regulations -- an effort, Cantor said, to spur job creation and assist small business owners.

    And before breaking for recess, Cantor wrote that the House would vote "on legislation preventing the largest tax increase in history." While the GOP is working on comprehensive tax reform, Cantor said that such an intiative would "take time," necessitating an extension of the Bush-era tax cuts past Dec. 31, when a previous two-year extension of those tax cuts is set to expire.

    But the agenda outlined by the Republicans is starkly different than the "to-do" list being pushed by President Barack Obama as the campaign season hits its stride.

    That list includes efforts to expand tax credits for small business hiring, proposals to spur clean energy manufacturing, and initiatives for employers who keep jobs that could be outsourced in the United States. Obama has also pushed for a veterans-hiring campaign, and expanded refinancing for Americans with troubled mortgages.

    Sen. Tom Coburn, author of "The Debt Bomb," talks about the sparring over spending in Congress. Coburn calls Congress, "short-term thinkers running crisis from crisis."

    The two sides' agendas shape the contours of the fall's battle for control of Congress. Republicans are looking to emphasize their efforts to rein in spending and cut regulatory rules, in part to appease a conservative base that was frustrated toward the GOP's role in last year's spending fights. While Obama and Democrats point to a "do-nothing" Congress, accusing it of doing nothing tangible to spur job growth.

    Underscoring the record-low unpopularity of Congress, Obama has taken strides, too, in tying Republican rival Mitt Romney to GOP lawmakers.

    NBC-Marist polls: Dems have slight edge in three key Senate races

    "After a long and spirited primary, Republicans in Congress have found a nominee for president who has promised to rubber-stamp this agenda if he gets the chance," he told cheering supporters in during his official campaign launch earlier this month.

    And on Thursday in Iowa, Obama noted the electorate's frustration toward Congress's inaction.

    "It's always easier to be cynical. It's always easier to say nothing can change, especially after we've gone through such a tough time," he said.

    "And despite all the changes we've made, despite all the good things we've done, things are still tough. And so, the other side, they are going to try and play on that sense that, well, things aren't perfect, Congress is still arguing, the politics is still polarized. But you're the antidote to that."

    Case-in-point was the standoff on Thursday that saw no resolution between Democrats and Republicans on separate bills to extend low student low rates, something which both Obama and Romney have endorsed.

    The Senate rejected the House bill to extend the lower interest rates on student loans because it contained a veritable poison pill for Democrats: a provision to pay for the cost of the bill by axing a part of the president's health care reform law. The Democratic version, which leaned on eliminating a tax break for the wealthy, also failed to secure the necessary votes for passage.

    Cantor made no mention of that impasse in his memo to colleagues on Friday. Barring action by Congress, student loan rates will double on July 1.

  • Pro-choice Americans at a record low, poll shows

     

    A new Gallup poll shows the number of Americans who consider themselves pro-choice has dropped to 41 percent, which is a record low in the United States. Compare that number to July of 2011, where 47 percent of Americans viewed themselves as pro-choice.

    The previous record low was in 2009 when 42 percent considered themselves pro-choice.

    Fifty percent of Americans now call themselves "pro-life," the poll also shows.

    In analyzing the data, Gallup notes:

    Gallup began asking Americans to define themselves as pro-choice or pro-life on abortion in 1995, and since then, identification with the labels has shifted from a wide lead for the pro-choice position in the mid-1990s, to a generally narrower lead for "pro-choice" -- from 1998 through 2008 -- to a close division between the two positions since 2009. However, in the last period, Gallup has found the pro-life position significantly ahead on two occasions, once in May 2009 and again today. It remains to be seen whether the pro-life spike found this month proves temporary, as it did in 2009, or is sustained for some period.

    In other words, this number for the time being could be fluid or fixed.


    The Morning Joe panel looked at the poll results today and discussed what they considered to be reasons behind the shift in opinion.

     

     

    Joe Scarborough said he thinks advances in technology may play a large role in that number:

    You now have the technology that not only takes parents inside so early. And it’s three-dimensional imaging and you sit there and you know what you do? You tear up. That’s what you do…The imagery that’s allowing parents to see their unborn children earlier, that’s having an impact. I remember seeing the 3-D imagery, and as I walked out of the office, I said ‘This is going to change the abortion debate. This is gonna change that because you see that and you immediately go ‘Ok, you can call it what you want to call it, but that’s a human being in there.’ That’s not a political statement. That is a statement as a dad.

    Scarborough also said favorability for abortion along with gay marriage, what he called "the two most volatile social issues of our time," are moving in opposite directions.

    "[Americans] are becoming more progressive on gay marriage, because they’re meeting more people who are married and saying 'Ok, come on. What’s the big deal? Just let them get married.' And so that number is going in one direction."

    Two new national polls show rising support for gay marriage in the United States.

    Random House's Jon Meacham also noted that: "You can be pro-life but also favor laws that allow choice. You can be personally pro-life but believe that there is a right to an abortion under certain circumstances."

    What do you think accounts for the shift in opinion on abortion? Does new technology play a large factor? What are other reasons?

  • As conservatives rally on marriage issue, fate rests with high court

    J. Scott Applewhite / AP

    Family Research Council President Tony Perkins denounces gay marriage as a group of pastors from across denominational lines gather on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, May 24, 2012.

    Conservative religious leaders rallying outside the Capitol Thursday promised to make the preservation of marriage as a union between one man and one woman an issue in 2012 campaign.

    But with traditional marriage already having been made the law in most states, and with the federal courts -- and ultimately the Supreme Court -- likely deciding the constitutionality of these laws, it's not yet clear how the leaders will persuade the conservative base to get mobilized.

    At the rally outside the Capitol, Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, chided Republican leaders for not focusing more on the marriage issue: “The Republicans have said they’re not going to be distracted” by the same-sex marriage issue, but instead will focus on the economy as the theme of the 2012 campaign.

    “The pastors and Christians across America are saying marriage is under attack. That’s not a distraction; that should be a priority,” Perkins said.

    NBC/WSJ poll: Obama's gay marriage announcement a 'draw'

    Republicans cannot sit back and assume they will win grassroots conservatives’ support on the issue. “If the Republicans want the support that’s going to be leaving the president (due to his backing support for same-sex marriages), they have to show that there is a clear contrast between the president and them,” he added.

    Bishop Harry Jackson, senior pastor of the Hope Christian Church in Beltsville, Md., said President Barack Obama’s personal endorsement of same-sex marriages was merely a prelude: “Some further action will follow,” he said, not specifying what he thinks the action would be.

    Attorney General Eric Holder announced last year that Justice Department lawyers would no longer defend the constitutionality of Section 3 of the Defense of Marriage Act, signed into law by President Bill Clinton in 1996, which federally defines marriages as solely between one man and one woman for purposes of awarding benefits.

    Another section of the law says that states can refuse to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.

    According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, 38 states have prohibited same-sex marriages, either through state law or by amending their state constitutions.

    The NAACP recently came out in support of gay marriage. The panel discusses that stance and a new Washington Post/ABC poll that has the POTUS and Mitt Romney in a statistical dead heat. Chuck Todd also joins the conversation.

    NCSL’s tally doesn’t include California, Maryland, and Washington. In California, a federal appeals court has ruled that the state constitutional amendment adopted in 2008 violates the U.S. Constitution, but an appeal is pending in that case. The Maryland and Washington legislatures have passed laws allowing same-sex marriages, but voters will either ratify or reject those laws in November.

    Legal challenges to DOMA are pending in two federal appeals courts and the issue seems likely to come before the Supreme Court as soon as next year. Also likely to come before the high court is the constitutionality of California’s marriage amendment, Proposition 8.

    Jackson recalled the power of the marriage issue in the 2004 election: “In 2004, George Bush won a second term in office by a shift in the vote” that occurred in Ohio and Florida, due in part to conservative alarm over prospect of legalization of same-sex marriage.

    Perkins said that in Ohio in 2004, it was conservative activists, and not the Republican Party establishment, who put the marriage constitutional amendment on the ballot and mobilized voters to turn out and approve it.

    In 2004, one-man/one-woman marriage referenda were on the ballot in Ohio and 12 other states and all were approved by voters.

    A dramatic additional motivation for voters came only a week before the 2004 election with the announcement that Chief Justice William Rehnquist had been hospitalized for thyroid cancer. Voters knew that either Bush or his Democratic opponent John Kerry would likely get to fill at least one vacancy during the four-year term beginning in January 2005.

    But whether the marriage issue, or the high court vacancy issue, will play as powerful a role this year as in 2004 depends partly on whether voters think they can do something to influence the outcome.

    Obama: Gay marriage 'doesn't weaken families, it strengthens families'

    Both Jackson and Perkins warned Thursday of Democratic Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid’s recent statement of support for bringing a bill to repeal DOMA to the Senate floor for a vote this year.

    A bill to repeal DOMA was approved by the Senate Judiciary Committee last year, but stands no chance of advancing in the House even if the Senate were to pass it.

    But such a vote could benefit both conservatives opposed to same-sex marriage and the proponents of it by giving them a recorded vote to rally supporters on. Depending on the state, senators up for re-election this fall might be put in a tight spot by such a vote.

    And yet such a vote might be beside the point, if the issue will be decided by the Supreme Court anyway.

    “Why is DOMA important?” Perkins asked the rally. “DOMA does two things: DOMA not only defines marriage for purposes of federal law, but DOMA is also the thin line of protection for the 30 states that have enshrined the definition of marriage in their constitutions and the other dozen states that have it in their statutes.”

    Without DOMA, he said, the few states that have legalized same-sex marriage “could impose their definition” on the majority of states that outlaw same-sex marriages.

    Perkins also drew a parallel between the abortion issue and the marriage issue. Legalization of abortion, he said was “thrust upon the country not democratically, not through the legislative branch, but through the courts -- and after 40 years it is not resolved.”

    He acknowledged that the high court could strike down DOMA and find that there is a fundamental constitutional right for same-sex couples to marry. “The courts may impose a definition of marriage -- but they will never make it right and Americans will never accept it.”

    Such a ruling, he said, “will make the abortion issue look minor.”

  • First Thoughts: Obama continues to blast Romney

    Obama continues to blast Romney, accusing him of engaging in a “cow pie of distortion”… One concern for Obama in NBC/WSJ poll: enthusiasm and intensity… Romney plays with fire with upcoming Donald Trump fundraisers… Gas prices on the decline heading in the Memorial Day holiday… Chris Matthews and Newt Gingrich… Walker and Barrett debate, while Walker has the HUGE ad-spending edge… And “Meet” has Martin O’Malley and Gingrich.

    *** Obama continues to blast Romney: Just like he did on Monday -- after being asked about whether Mitt Romney’s work at Bain Capital was fair game -- President Obama continued to criticize the presumptive GOP nominee and his business experience. “The main goal of a financial firm like Gov. Romney’s is not to create jobs. And by the way, the people who work at these firms will tell you that’s not their goal. Their main goal is to create wealth for themselves and their investors. That’s part of the American way. That’s fine,” he said at a campaign event in Des Moines, IA last night. “Sometimes, jobs are created in that process. But when maximizing short-term gains for your investors rather than building companies that last is your goal, then sometimes it goes the other way. Workers get laid off. Benefits disappear. Pensions are cut.” Obama concluded, “There may be value for that kind of experience, but it’s not in the White House.” As NBC’s Kristen Welker pointed out, it was one of Obama’s most direct attacks against Romney. And as the New York Times’ Peter Baker writes, these direct attacks -- from the president himself -- are coming earlier than in past campaigns.

    Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

    President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines.

    *** A “cow pie of distortion”: Also in Iowa last night, Obama invoked Romney’s “corporations are people, my friend” -- which was delivered at the same venue (the Iowa State Fairgrounds) last summer -- and he referred to Romney’s most recent visit to the Hawkeye State. “Now, I know Gov. Romney came to Des Moines last week; warned about a ‘prairie fire of debt.’  That’s what he said. But he left out some facts. His speech was more like a cow pie of distortion… What my opponent didn’t tell you was that federal spending since I took office has risen at the slowest pace of any president in almost 60 years.” The Romney camp issued this response: “A president who broke his promise to cut the deficit in half by the end of his first term has no standing when it comes to fiscal responsibility. By the end of this year, President Obama will have presided over a record-shattering four consecutive trillion-dollar deficits and added an historic amount to our national debt.”  

    *** Measuring enthusiasm and intensity: So what did we learn this week, in addition to all the back-and-forth over Bain? Our slew of polls -- the national NBC/WSJ survey, as well as our NBC/Marist polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia -- showed that Obama has a small lead over Romney, despite what’s been a volatile and eventful past few weeks. As we pointed out yesterday, he’s at or near 48% in all of those polls, which is both good news for him and something to be wary of as well. But National Journal’s Charlie Cook points out this potential warning sign: a lack of enthusiasm among key parts of Obama’s base. In the NBC/WSJ poll, 81% of voters rated themselves as 8’s, 9’s, or 10’s, in terms of interest in the upcoming election. While 83% of African Americans expressed this high interest in the election, just 68% of Latinos and 64% of young voters said the same thing. By comparison, Tea Party supporters and Republicans were at 90% and 88%, respectively. So Team Obama has some work to do here.

    *** Playing with fire: While Politico this morning notes that Team Romney’s message has been consistent (on the economy) and Team Obama’s hasn’t, here is one big exception to this: Donald Trump. Yesterday, we found out that Romney will attend a fundraiser in Las Vegas on Tuesday with Trump, and the campaign is also pushing a “Dine with Donald Trump and Mitt Romney” competition. This now makes Trump an unmistakable surrogate for the Romney campaign, especially considering his other assistance to Romney (his endorsement, attendance at other fundraisers). And as we’ve seen in the past, candidates are often forced to own what their surrogates say. So does Romney agree with Trump that Jeremiah Wright is fair game? Does he agree that there are still questions about Obama’s citizenship? And does he agree, as Trump has said, that the U.S. needs to go to economic “war” against China? The DNC issued this statement yesterday: "Once again Mitt Romney is failing the moral leadership test. Instead of rejecting Donald Trump's 'birther' conspiracy theories and divisive attacks, he's endorsing them by campaigning and fundraising with him.”

    *** Gas prices on the decline: Given everything we written and heard about gas prices, you might be surprised at this news: Gas prices are failing -- big time. As we head into the Memorial Day weekend, the average price per gallon is now $3.67, NBC’s Tom Costello reported on “TODAY,” and that’s down from 17 cents a month ago and down from $3.82 last year. Of course, one reason why they’ve been failing is due to slowing economies in Europe and China. And that particular news poses potential problems for the Obama White House. It’s really the story of the past three years -- we move from one crisis and potential problem to the next. The financial industry’s collapse, the BP spill, Greece, high gas prices, Greece again, etc.

    *** Chris Matthews and Newt Gingrich: If you missed MSNBC’s Chris Matthews’ interview with Newt Gingrich yesterday, here are some highlights. Gingrich on Romney: “Mitt Romney did what he had to do in order to become the nominee… And when he got to the crunch, he was tough enough and smart enough to beat me in Florida.” On his earlier attacks against Bain Capital: “I wouldn't have won it on that issue. That issue didn't work.”

    Chris Matthews sits down with former 2012 presidential nominee contender Newt Gingrich for an exclusive interview about the GOP primary fight, and about Mitt Romney's politics and success.

    *** Scott Walker’s huge ad-spending advantage: In Wisconsin tonight, Gov. Scott Walker (R) and Tom Barrett (D) will debate tonight. And this debate comes after several recent national polls have shown Walker leading Barrett. (Democrats have released their own polls showing Barrett trailing by just a couple of points, arguing that they’re within striking distance). One of the BIG reasons why Walker is ahead is due to his significant ad-spending advantage. According to our data, Walker and GOP-leaning outside groups (like the RGA and Americans for Prosperity) have spent nearly $23 million on the airwaves, compared with $10 million for the Democrats -- and $4 million was spent behalf of Kathleen Falk, who lost to Barrett in the recall primary. Here’s the breakdown:

    GOP
    Walker: $11.8 million
    Right Direction WI (RGA): $4.4 million
    Wisconsin Manufacturers and Commerce: $4.3 million
    Americans for Prosperity: $1.5 million
    Center for Union Facts: $300k
    Ending Spending: $233k
    NRA: $200k
    Club for Growth: $193k
    Campaign to Defeat Barack Obama: $17k

    Barrett/Dem
    Wisconsin for Falk: $3.4 million
    Greater Wisconsin Committee: $3.2 million
    Barrett: $2.7 million
    Falk: $500k
    Wisconsin Education Association: $141k
    League of Conservation Voters: $102k
    PCCC: $64k

    SOURCE: SMG Delta

    *** On “Meet” this Sunday: NBC’s David Gregory interviews Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley and Newt Gingrich. 

    Countdown to WI recall: 11 days
    Countdown to GOP convention: 95 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 102 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 166 days

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  • Romney: Trump'd

    Fact check from AP’s education writer: “When Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney decried President Barack Obama as beholden to the nation's teachers' unions and unable to stand up for reform, he glossed over four years of a relationship that has been anything but cozy. Obama has promoted initiatives that encourage districts to tie teacher evaluations to student performance and to expand the number of charter schools -- actions the teacher unions have long been against, and which Romney himself promoted Wednesday in a speech in Washington outlining his education platform.”

    NPR’s Claudio Sanchez: “Romney's argument that President Obama's beholden to teachers unions will be a stretch, in large part because unions are no fans of the administration's support for charter school, merit pay, and evaluation schemes that tie teachers' performance to students' test results. Still, Mr. Romney's plan for K through 12 education is different than the president's plan in a basic way, says Andy Rotherham, a former advisor to the Obama administration.”

    The L.A. Times’ Paul West makes the point that Romney’s rare trip to the inner city “probably had more to do with outreach to suburban moderates than to African Americans, who are strongly behind President Obama.”

    Here’s the Philadelphia Inquirer’s first-hand take.

    “A day after Mitt Romney addressed the Latino Coalition , the presumptive Republican nominee released a second Spanish-language ad outlining the agenda for his first day in office,” the Boston Globe writes. “But Romney’s attempts to court Latino voters -- with whom he is unpopular -- appear half-hearted, according to some observers. The ads indicate Romney’s early to-do list does not include immigration reform, a subject he also ignored Wednesday when speaking to Latino business owners at the US Chamber of Commerce in Washington.”

    Similarly, National Journal’s Beth Reinhard writes, “The stage is set for an epic battle over the Hispanic vote in the presidential election, but so far, President Obama is crushing the competition… While Obama’s ads are specifically targeted at a Hispanic audience, Romney’s Spanish-language ads are exactly the same as his ads in English, only translated into Spanish.” One Democrat described Romney’s strategy as “watering the desert.”

    Peggy Noonan interviewed Romney. Note that Romney is keeping notes on his presidential campaign, writing every two or three days. Sounds like a memoir coming. He also claims: “[V]ictory is still a thrill, but I don't feel agony in loss."

    Romney notes that he gets upset with himself for verbal mistakes, like saying, “I like to be able to fire people." And then he goes on to criticize the media: “‘I have to think not only about what I say in a full sentence but what I say in a phrase.’ In the current media environment, ‘you will be taken out of context, you'll be clipped, and you'll be battered with things you said.’ He says it is interesting that ‘the media always says, 'Gosh, we just want you to be spontaneous,' but at the same time if you say anything in the wrong order, you're gonna be sorry!’”

    And he claimed: “If Barack Obama is re-elected, ‘it will be very difficult to get off that path. If I'm elected, I will usher in a period of economic vitality,’ that will leave the world ‘surprised.’ Not only the world: ‘America is going to see a vitality we had not expected.’”

    He raised money last night in Boston at the home of a former Bain employee.

    Romney will be raising money Tuesday with Newt Gingrich and Donald Trump. “For a mere $3 donation to help elect Mitt Romney, donors could find themselves dining with real estate mogul Donald Trump,” USA Today writes. “The fundraising ask, sponsored by Romney Victory Fund, the joint fundraising effort by Romney and the Republican National Committee, features a sketch of Trump pointing, with the words ‘I want you’ and ‘Dine with the Donald’ under the picture. A cursive (+ Mitt) is next to Trump's name.”

    Trump yesterday had a suggestion for Romney’s VP – him. "Probably the best choice of all would be Donald Trump," he said, per the New York Daily News.  And, the always-humble Trump apparently wants to speak at the Republican National Convention. He tweeted Tuesday: “Hmmm...can you imagine me speaking at the RNC Convention in Tampa? That's a speech everyone would watch."

    The Daily News reports: “Republican insiders have confirmed that Trump’s name has been floated as a possible speaker for the August convention, but no decisions have been made.”

  • Obama: A 'tenuous advantage'

    “The new round of national and state surveys this week generally showing President Obama clinging to a tenuous advantage over Republican Mitt Romney reinforce the conclusion that socially liberal, upscale white women may stand as the president's indispensable line of defense in his struggle for reelection,” National Journal’s Brownstein writes. “Both the national ABC/Washington Post survey released earlier this week, and the NBC/Marist Polls released Thursday in the battleground states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida show Obama retaining preponderant support among minority voters who were critical to his 2008 victory. Conversely, in almost all of the surveys, Obama faces a consistent pattern of erosion from his already meager 2008 levels of support among whites without a college education.”

    “President Obama has been keeping some long days lately, often due to fund-raising events for his reelection campaign. It raises the question of whether he is tiring himself out for his day job as the nation’s CEO, chief diplomat, and commander in chief,” the Boston Globe’s Johnson writes. “Just [yesterday], the president awoke in San Jose, Calif., after 18 1/2 hours of travel that saw him fly to Colorado to deliver the Air Force Academy commencement address, then on to Denver for a fund-raiser - and then on to California for two more.”

    Politico says that Obama and his campaign have stumbled out of the gate. “Obama, not Mitt Romney, is the one with the muddled message — and the one who often comes across as baldly political. Obama, not Romney, is the one facing blowback from his own party on the central issue of the campaign so far – Romney’s history with Bain Capital. And most remarkably, Obama, not Romney, is the one falling behind in fundraising.”

    “The Obama administration is sidestepping an election-year confrontation with the hotel industry and other pool owners to give them more time to comply with access rules for the disabled,” the AP writes. “The rules have been in the works since the early 1990s, but the Justice Department created an uproar among hotels, waterparks, health clubs and the like earlier this year when it said it will require many such facilities to install fixed, permanent lifts to comply with the Americans With Disabilities Act.”

    “The candidate of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood won a spot in a run-off election, according to partial results Friday from Egypt's first genuinely competitive presidential election. A former prime minister an a leftist were vying for second place and a chance to run against him to become the country's next leader,” AP writes. “The run-off will be held on June 16-17, pitting the two top contenders from the first round of voting held Wednesday and Thursday. The victor is to be announced June 21.”

    Michelle Obama wants to be Beyoncé: “Gosh, if I had some gift, I’d be Beyoncé. I’d be some great singer,” Mrs. Obama told People magazine in an interview set to hit newsstands Friday, per the New York Daily News “The power of music, being able to play an instrument. … It looks like musicians just have the most fun.”

  • Veepstakes: Ready for their closeups

    AP’s Hunt writes: “Mitt Romney's vice presidential search has entered a new phase: auditions. As his campaign evaluates potential running mates, Republicans with a possible shot at the No. 2 spot on the presidential ticket are starting to engage in unofficial public tryouts for the traditional vice presidential role of attack dog.”

    RUBIO: Political Wire: “Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) "is planning a swing-state summer bus tour that will also roll through South Carolina, the early presidential primary battleground," the Miami Herald reports.” He’ll stop in his home state of Florida, as well as make his way up the coast to North Carolina and Virginia (while stopping in South Carolina – a state rich with conservatives interested in his life story -- as well.)

  • Senate panel votes to cut $33M in Pakistan aid over bin Laden doctor's conviction

    Pakistan's decision to convict a doctor who helped the U.S. track down Osama bin Laden was met with outrage in the U.S. NBC's Andrea Mitchell reports.

    WASHINGTON — A Senate panel expressed its outrage Thursday over Pakistan's conviction of a doctor who helped the United States track down Osama bin Laden, voting to cut aid to Islamabad by $33 million — $1 million for every year of the physician's 33-year sentence for high treason.

    "It's arbitrary, but the hope is that Pakistan will realize we are serious," said Senator Richard Durbin after the unanimous 30-0 vote by the Senate Appropriations Committee.


    "It's outrageous that they (the Pakistanis) would say a man who helped us find Osama bin Laden is a traitor," said Durbin, the Senate's number two Democrat.

    Pakistan jails doctor who helped CIA find Osama bin Laden

    The sentencing on Wednesday of Dr Shakil Afridi for 33 years on treason charges added to U.S. frustrations with Pakistan over what Washington sees as its reluctance to help combat Islamist militants fighting the Afghan government and the closure of supply routes to NATO troops in Afghanistan.

    'A schizophrenic ally'
    The punitive move came on top of deep reductions the Appropriations Committee already had made to President Barack Obama's budget request for Pakistan, a reflection of the growing congressional anger over its cooperation in combatting terrorism. The overall foreign aid budget for next year had slashed more than half of the proposed assistance and threatened further reductions if Islamabad failed to open the overland supply routes.

    "We need Pakistan, Pakistan needs us, but we don't need Pakistan double-dealing and not seeing the justice in bringing Osama bin Laden to an end," said Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who pushed for the additional cut in aid. 

    Fuel tankers sit idle during Pakistan-US dispute over supply routes

    He called Pakistan "a schizophrenic ally," helping the United States at one turn, but then aiding the Haqqani network which has claimed responsibility for several attacks on Americans. The group also has ties to al-Qaida and the Taliban. 

    It's been a tough year for Pakistan U.S. relations. Crucial NATO supply routes have been shuttered since November, there is tension over drone strikes and now the countries are at odds over the treason conviction of the Pakistani doctor who helped the U.S. locate Osama Bin Laden. 

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said the jailing of the doctor was "unjust and unwarranted" and vowed to continue to press the case with Islamabad. "The United States does not believe there is any basis for holding Dr. Afridi."

    Afridi was accused of running a fake vaccination campaign, in which he collected DNA samples, that is believed to have helped the American intelligence agency track down bin Laden in a Pakistani town last year. 

    Aid workers become targets as Pakistan faces new crisis

    The al-Qaida leader was killed in the town of Abbottabad a year ago in a unilateral U.S. special forces raid that heavily damaged ties between Islamabad and Washington. Since then, there have been growing calls in the U.S. Congress to cut off some or all of U.S. aid.

    Senator John McCain, top Republican on the Armed Services Committee, said lawmakers had agreed to withhold certain military aid for Pakistan until the defense secretary certifies that Pakistan is not detaining people like Afridi.

    Muhammed Muheisen / AP

    Images of daily life, political pursuits, religious rites and deadly violence.

    "All of us are outraged at the imprisonment and sentencing of some 33 years — virtually a death sentence — to the doctor in Pakistan who was instrumental ... in the removal of Osama bin Laden," McCain said, adding that Afridi was innocent of any wrongdoing. "That has frankly outraged all of us."

    McCain criticizes Pakistan for jailing of doctor

    The Senate Appropriations Committee's action docking Pakistan's aid came after a subcommittee earlier in the week slashed assistance to Islamabad -- and warned it would withhold even more cash if Pakistan does not reopen supply routes for NATO soldiers in neighboring Afghanistan.

    Members of the committee complained about mafia-style extortion by Pakistan in seeking truck fees in exchange for opening the supply lines. The cost had been $250 per truck prior to the attack. Pakistan is now demanding $5,000 per truck. The United States has countered at $500.

    Pakistan has been one of the leading recipients of U.S. foreign aid in recent years. Even after the cuts voted this week it still would receive about $1 billion in fiscal 2013, if the full Senate and House of Representatives approve. That figure includes $184 million for State Department operations and $800 million for foreign assistance. Counterinsurgency money for Pakistan would be limited to $50 million.

    Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this report.

    More world news from msnbc.com and NBC News:

    Follow us on Twitter: @msnbc_world

  • Obama calls Romney speech 'a cow pie of distortion'

    DES MOINES, IA – President Barack Obama delivered one of his most direct attacks against Mitt Romney here Thursday night, painting Romney as an out-of-touch corporate raider.

    At this event, held before an enthusiastic crowd of 2,500 at the Iowa State Fairgrounds, Obama reminded the crowd that Romney said “corporations are people,” while stumping in Iowa last August during the Republican primary. The president said there may be value in Romney’s experience in corporate buyouts, “but it’s not in the White House.”

    He also noted that the former governor doesn’t talk about his record in Massachusetts.


    Speaking directly to Iowans, Obama used local lingo to slam Romney: “Governor Romney came to Des Moines last week and warned of a prairie fire of debt,” he said. “But he left out some facts. His speech was more like a cow pie of distortion.”

    Then he quipped, “I don’t know whose record he twisted the most – mine or his.”

    Obama warned his supporters that this race would be tougher than 2008 and argued that he represents the future and Romney the past.

    "We don't need another political fight about ending women's right to choose or getting rid of Planned Parenthood," Mr. Obama said as the crowd erupted into cheers.

    The president portrayed the event as a homecoming – Iowa helped launch Mr. Obama's campaign in 2008.

    "Four or five years ago it was you who kept us going when pundits had written us off,” he told the audience. “In front porches, in backyards, our movement for change began."

    Several people in the crowd yelled back: "We love you!"

     

     

  • McCain criticizes Pakistan for jailing of doctor

    Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), the ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee, today lashed out at Pakistan for the jailing of the doctor who helped lead the United States to Osama bin Laden.

    That came as the Senate Armed Services Committee, of which McCain is the ranking Republican, said it wants to require the Defense Department to certify that Pakistan is open to maintaining supply lines -- and not supporting militant extremist groups -- before releasing U.S. funds to Pakistan's armed forces.

    "All of us are outraged at the imprisonment and sentencing of some 33 years, virtually a death sentence, to the doctor in Pakistan who was instrumental not on purpose but was instrumental and completely innocent of any wrongdoing."

    He added, "It is our goal to make sure that this doctor is not sentenced to death which is basically what he got for helping us apprehend Osama bin Laden."

    In announcing this action today, McCain and Chairman Carl Levin (D-MI) said they would not put a number on the restricted funds to Pakistan's military. They said they are open to discussing it with the Obama administration.

    McCain also reacted to NBC's Andrea Mitchell's interview with President Zardari's son -- he called him "a very articulate young man," but then went on to challenge everything he said.

    McCain believes Pakistan's demand for an apology over the airstrike that killed 24 Pakistani's last year is connected to their decision to convict and jail the doctor.

    A very animated McCain told reporters,  Why convict an innocent man in response to your dissatisfaction that you didn't get an apology from the United States of America? What's that all about? This is a human being, a human being."

    He continued, "To somehow allege that under any countries law that this doctor violated any law is of course just beyond ludicrous. It's outrageous."

    McCain said the U.S. has expressed regret over the airstrike and he wants to know more details about it. He said once a complete investigation is done President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton will decide if an apology is in order.

    Levin and McCain held a press conference to announce completion of the markup of their Defense Authorization bill which included the Pakistan aid restrictions.

    Earlier today, the Senate Appropriations Committee voted unanimously to cut an additional $33 million in U.S. aid to Pakistan.

    The amendment sponsored by Lindsey Graham (R-SC) cuts $1 million for every year of the 33-year sentence received by the Pakistani doctor.

    The cuts will impact U.S. military aid to Pakistan. The Obama administration requested $2.27 billion in aid for the next fiscal year, but the committee pared that back and proposed $800.3 million. This $33 million cut to military aid will reduce that number even more.

  • Inside the Boiler Room: What's old is new again

    As the 2012 general election heats up, Mark Murray and Domenico Montanaro discuss the return of issues from the 2008 election including President Obama’s former pastor Jeremiah Wright and Obama’s birth certificate and how they might affect voters in November.

    Thanks Steeler-Fan- 380417 for the question! Keep an eye out for our next installment of Inside the Boiler Room, and our next post asking for your questions!

    Don't forget, you can also tweet us, @NBCFirstRead@mmurraypolitics or@DomenicoNBC, or post on our Facebook page.

    Edited by NBC's Matt Loffman.

  • Gingrich to join Romney (and Trump) at Vegas fundraiser

     

    Newt Gingrich will make his first appearance with presumptive GOP nominee Mitt Romney on May 29 in Las Vegas.

    NBC News has learned the former House speaker will attend a fundraiser for Romney at Trump Towers in Las Vegas Tuesday evening. Donald Trump will also attend.

    The last time Gingrich and Romney were in Nevada together was in early February, amid a bitter fight for the nomination.

    Rumors broke just days before the Feb. 4 Nevada caucuses – and were confirmed by several news outlets -- that Trump himself would endorse Gingrich. Hours later, however, the casino mogul endorsed Romney.

    A joint public event with the two former competitors may occur next month.

  • Romney faces tough questions in event driving education agenda

    PHILADELPHIA -- Mitt Romney took his newly-announced education agenda to a west Philadelphia charter school on Thursday, where he was met by tough questions from both inside and outside the school.

    The former Massachusetts governor capped a week of campaigning devoted to education following a major policy address on Wednesday detailing an education plan emphasizing increased school choice and teacher accountability.

    But during a roundtable discussion, Romney's faced disagreement from educators regarding his beliefs about class size, and he defended his views on the importance of the involvement of parents' in order to fix ailing public schools.

    Mario Tama / Getty Images

    Republican candidate Mitt Romney greets students in a third-grade computer technology class at Universal Bluford Charter School on May 24 in Philadelphia, Pa.

    While Romney toured classrooms and spoke to students afterward, supporters of President Obama protested outside, attacking the former Massachusetts Governor's economic credentials, and mockingly accused him of only newfound interest in urban communities.

    In the library of the Bluford Universal charter school, which has a predominantly African American and economically disadvantaged student body, Romney referred -- in more direct terms than in his policy speech yesterday -- to the achievement gap between white and minority students.

    "The gap in the educational opportunity and achievement of people of color in this society, I believe is the civil rights issue of our time," Romney said.

    Romney's education reform policy centers around encouraging school choice, and a question by the CEO of another Philadelphia charter school system cut to the heart of the matter.

    "Whenever they talk about providing education for low income kids, they always talk about sending them to a school somewhere else," said David Hardy of Boys Latin of Philadelphia. "Why can't we have good schools in this neighborhood?"

    Romney did not answer Hardy's question directly, but thanked him for it, and later expounded on his views about the importance of school choice, and that those choices must include options in the communities most in need.

    Educators also challenged Romney over his belief, backed by a McKinsey study and stated often on the campaign trail, that class sizes are largely unimportant to student success, and not that small classes are not an educational panacea.

    "It’s not the classroom size that is driving the success of [other nation's] school systems. And then [McKinsey] looked at it and said well what is driving the success of those school systems? It’s parents very involved and the idea of choice means you have chosen to be involved, parents are involved, excellent teachers, drawing teachers from the very best and brightest of graduates," Romney said. "And administrators that are able to guide the school with good policies of discipline and getting the right resources."

    But another teacher on the panel contested Romney's statements, citing a separate report.

    "There was a study done by the University of Tennessee, a definitive study about class size and what they said was that in first through third grade, if the class size is under 18 those kids stay ahead of everybody else all the way through school, including classes where you might have 25 in the class and co-teachers," the teacher said. "Those students lose their gains after a couple years. If you have small classes in those primary years, those most important years, that’s what makes the difference."

    Romney rarely discusses social issues on the campaign trail, but today he made clear that his education policy has a home-based component as well, pointing several times to importance of an engaged, two-parent home in the progression of a child's education.

    "Having two parents in a home makes an enormous difference," Romney said. "And so if we're thinking about the kids of tomorrow, trying to help move people to understand you know getting married and having families where there is a mom and a dad together has a big impact. And that's, in my view, that is critical down the road."

    If Romney and his roundtable panel did not always agree, on specific policy points, the atmosphere in the conversation was collegial and productive. That was not the case on the West Philadelphia street corner nearby, where Obama campaign aides organized a protest and press conference with Philadelphia's Democratic mayor, Michael Nutter.

    Nutter accused Romney of having "no record to stand on," regarding education from his time as Governor of Massachusetts, and mocked the presumptive GOP nominee for making an exceedingly rare visit to an economically depressed, urban, democratic and largely African American neighborhood.

    "It’s nice that he decided this late in his time to see what a city like Philadelphia is about -- It’s May. The election’s in November. I’m not sure what he’s going to learn here today," Nutter said. "I don’t know that a one-day experience in the heart of West Philadelphia is enough to get you ready to run the United States of America.”

    Today's campaign appearance will be Romney's final public stop in a short week, which a campaign adviser told reporters last week would be focused on education. After spending Monday and Tuesday raising money in New York, Romney unveiled his education policy in a speech Wednesday in Washington. Tonight, he returns to Boston for a fundraiser. For Romney, and the nation's schoolchildren still in class, this Memorial Day is a holiday weekend.

  • Allen: 'Every indication' Scott Walker will win big in Wisconsin

     

    Wisconsin Republican Gov. Scott Walker has been something of a controversial figure since February 2011. At the time, he proposed a budget repair bill in February of 2011 requiring state and local government workers to contribute more to pension and health care plans. And the bill would eliminate most collective bargaining rights for workers.

    A whole lot has happened since, and an effort to recall him began in November.

    Politico's Mike Allen joined us this morning to discuss the status of that recall and what it's done for Walker's status among the GOP.

    "[There's] every indication he’s going to win big over the Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett," Allen said.

    Walker has raised $13M in over just three months this year.

    "Is that breaking news that he’s going to win big? Does it look like he’s going to pull this one out?," Joe Scarborough asked.

    Allen responded:

    He is, and as a result of that all around the country he’s become a big applause line at Republican gatherings. Just this cycle, the governor has raised $25M from around the country, including from some of the country’s biggest Republican donors. So, the left, labor Democrats, which planned to embarrass him instead have made him a big national figure with a very bright future.

    What could this do for Mitt Romney's campaign in Wisconsin? The latest polling has President Obama leading Mitt Romney, but Allen thinks that may change.

    "The effect of this is to make Wisconsin look better for Mitt Romney," Allen said.

  • Videos: Romney's promises; polling analysis

     

    RNC Chairman Reince Priebus talks about  Mitt Romney's campaign promises and says the presumptive nominee will do more specific things to address issues facing the country. 

     

    The Grio's Perry Bacon, Democratic Strategist Tracy Sefl, and NBC's Deputy Political Editor Domenico Montanaro take a closer look at the NBC/Marist poll results, and discuss Mitt Romney's vice presidential options.

  • First Thoughts: Mr. 48%

    Mr. 48%: Obama at or near 48% in all our recent polling… Is that a good thing or bad thing?... The importance of FL, OH, and VA… The importance of cell phones, too… Given the JP Morgan and Facebook news, does any political candidate want to be tied to Wall Street right now?... Romney’s singular message vs. Obama’s multiple ones… Romney unveils a new TV ad… And Obama heads to Iowa.

    *** Mr. 48%: What’s striking about our new NBC/WSJ poll -- as well as our new round of NBC-Marist polls -- is the consistency of the numbers for President Obama: He’s at or near 48% every way you slice it. In our new national NBC/WSJ poll, the president’s approval rating is at 48%, and his percentage against Mitt Romney in the ballot test is 47% (vs. Romney’s 43%). Then look at these numbers from our brand-new NBC-Marist state polls: In Florida, Obama leads Romney, 48%-44%; in Ohio, he’s up 48%-42%; and in Virginia, he’s ahead, 48%-44%. What does this mean? Is 48% a good thing or bad thing? On the one hand, he’s leading and in the high 40s, despite what’s been a rocky and volatile last few weeks (the April jobs numbers, the worries out of Europe, the rushed gay-marriage announcement, etc.). On the other hand, he remains below that important 50% threshold that’s usually considered safe haven for an incumbent president, and Romney is well within striking distance, especially given all of Europe’s economic uncertainty. Bottom line: 48% is really the knife’s edge; not quite close enough where you can just fall over the 50% finish line, but close enough that it doesn’t take much. It’s a number to follow in the months ahead.

    Jeff Chiu / AP

    President Barack Obama waves before speaking at the Fox Theater in Redwood City, Calif.

     
    *** A matter of party ID: By the way, how do you explain that Quinnipiac poll that shows Romney leading Obama in Florida (47%-41%) with our NBC-Marist poll that has Obama up in the Sunshine State (48%-44%)? It’s a matter of party ID in the survey; both pollsters use sound methods to conduct their surveys and neither weighs by party ID (it’s too volatile; most pollsters do NOT do that). There was a three-point GOP registration advantage in the Quinnipiac survey, and our NBC-Marist poll has an eight-point Dem registration edge. What did the exit polls show in 2008 for Florida: Dem +3. (So if you assume a 2008 turnout, that means that Obama and Romney are in a dead heat in Florida.) Here are the party ID breakdowns for our other two NBC/Marist polls:

    OH: Dem + 9 (the 2008 exit poll had it Dem +8
    VA: Dem + 2 (the ’08 exit poll had it Dem +6)

    All of the raw data of the NBC/Marist polls are public and available for your scrutiny! We’re a full disclosure operation.

    *** The importance of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia: Here’s something else to consider regarding our new NBC-Marist polls of Florida, Ohio, and Virginia: All Obama has to do is win ONE of these, and he’ll likely surpass 270 electoral votes. Yet even if Romney wins all THREE, Obama still has a viable, though, slim path to 270 (if he wins Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Iowa, and New Hampshire). But make no mistake: Romney most likely needs to win all three states, while Obama’s goal is to win two -- or maybe even one. Why is this the case? It’s the president’s advantage in the West right now. If Romney can’t pull at least Nevada, it puts a TON of pressure on him to sweep these three battlegrounds.

    *** The importance of cell phones: Want to see how cell phones make a difference in political surveys? In our NBC-Marist poll of Florida, Romney leads with landline respondents, 48%-45%. But Obama leads among cell phone respondents, 57%-34%. And in Virginia, Romney’s up one among landline folks, 47%-46%, while Obama is up 54%-36% with cell users. (By the way, 28% of our interviews in OH and FL were conducted on cell phone; 27% in VA.)

    *** Just askin’: Given the recent stories involving JP Morgan last week and Facebook this week, does any political candidate want to be defending Wall Street or be seen as on its side? Folks, this is a development worth watching over the next couple of months…

    *** Romney’s one message vs. Obama’s multiple ones: Yesterday, Romney spoke to a Latino audience -- the Latino Coalition Economic Summit in DC -- but he didn’t say anything about immigration or even Marco Rubio’s DREAM Act. Instead, he rolled out his education plan before this audience. The Romney campaign believes it needs just one message, rooted in the economy, to speak to everyone (Latinos, women, seniors). By contrast, the Obama campaign’s message is much more targeted. (Just compare the Team Obama’s Spanish-language advertising, which individually targets Latinos, to Team Romney’s, which simply translates an English ad to Spanish.) And by the way, Romney has plenty to work to do with Latinos, according to our NBC/WSJ/Telemundo oversample: Obama is leading Romney here, 61%-27%. 

    *** Going a bit too far? Speaking of Romney’s education speech, he said yesterday that American children are getting a “third-world education” under President Obama. “Third world”? This kind of rhetoric is part of a larger pattern with Romney -- first on foreign policy, now education -- where Romney wants to draw a distinction with President Obama, but has to go far out on a rhetorical limb to make the case. In fact, Obama’s economic policies have won plenty of praise from the right, including Romney. “I think Secretary Duncan has done some good things,” he said back in September. “I hope that’s not heresy in this room… He, for instance, has a program called ‘Race to the Top,’ which encourages schools to have more choice, more testing of kids, more evaluation of teachers. Those are things that make some sense.” Romney continues to talk education when he campaigns in Pennsylvania today.

    *** Romney’s 2nd general-election TV ad: The Romney camp is up with a new TV ad (airing in just Iowa, Ohio, North Carolina, and Virginia), and it’s another positive ad. “What would a Romney presidency be like?” the narrator states. “Day One, President Romney announces deficit reductions, ending the Obama era of big government, helping secure our kids’ futures President Romney stands up to China on trade and demands they play by the rules.” More:  “President Romney begins repealing job-killing regulations that are costing the economy billions.”

    *** Obama in the Hawkeye State: Meanwhile, President Obama heads to Iowa today, where he gives remarks on the economy and clean energy in Newton at 5:15 pm ET, and then he holds a campaign organizing/grassroots event at the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines at 7:55 pm ET. The Obama camp has released a video tied to this event at the state fairgrounds, noting that it’s where Romney said, “corporations are people, my friend.”

    Countdown to WI recall: 12 days
    Countdown to GOP convention: 96 days
    Countdown to Dem convention: 103 days
    Countdown to Election Day: 167 days

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  • Veepstakes: Jindal's awkward pause

    AYOTTE: The Boston Herald interviewed New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte: “In a sneak peek at a potential fall showdown, New Hampshire U.S. Sen. Kelly Ayotte said tangling with Vice President Joe Biden on a debate stage ‘would be quite enjoyable’ and poked fun at Biden’s foot-in-mouth malady. ‘The vice president does have a way with words,’” she said. Of being veep, she said: “It’s certainly an honor to be mentioned for consideration as vice president, but serving New Hampshire in the Senate is the greatest honor I could ask for.”

    And: “I think Gov. Romney is going to pick who he thinks is best and he will do that not worried about the gender of the person or what their particular background is, except for when it comes to qualifications,” she said. “I think that anyone who is nominated to serve as vice president will expect there will be tremendous media scrutiny on them.”

    JINDAL: Awwwkward: GOP 12: “On The Daily Rundown, Chuck Todd asks Bobby Jindal if he'd be Mitt Romney's running mate. Jindal runs through some talking points; then Todd notes ‘Governor, that's not a denial. You know that, right?’ Bobby then smiles (see screencap above) and does nothing else, making this the most uncomfortable pause since Jim Irsay asked Peyton Manning if he wanted to be Andrew Luck's backup.”

    PORTMAN: Why did John McCain want to punch Rob Portman in the face?

    RUBIO: “Sen. Marco Rubio on Wednesday blamed Washington’s inability to produce a comprehensive immigration policy on Democrats who prefer that the issue remain unresolved so they can continue to leverage it to win the Hispanic vote,” Politico writes. Rubio said on FOX: “I think there are some people in the Democratic Party that think that the immigration issue’s more valuable to them unsolved, that it gives them something to talk about, that they can go back to Hispanic communities and make unrealistic promises every two years and win votes.”

    It’s worth pointing out, however, that Democrats were just a few votes short of passing the DREAM Act, which was blocked by Republicans.

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