GOP presidential hopeful former Senator Rick Santorum spoke exclusively with David Gregory this Sunday about his plan strategy for the rest of the primary season. he Washington Post noted Santorum’s comments on rival Newt Gingrich: “’Well, you know, that's not my job,’ Santorum told Gregory when asked whether he’d urge Gingrich to get out of the race.” And CNN wrote, “’This isn't a mathematical formula -- this race has a tremendous amount of dynamics,’ Santorum told the NBC program "Meet the Press." Regarding the issues of energy and jobs, a Politico article highlighted, “on ‘Meet the Press,’ Santorum said the failure to develop a U.S. energy strategy could not be blamed on Republicans,” while the National Journal wrote, “The country may have just added 227,000 new jobs, but Rick Santorum told NBC’s Meet the Press that if he were elected president he could do better. And he’d start with energy policy.”

Virginia Governor Bob McDonnell and Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley appeared together on Meet the Press this Sunday to discuss 2012 politics. A Washington Examiner article highlighted McDonnell’s  criticism of President Obama’s economic policies: “McDonnell brushed off the jobs gains, saying they were proof that Republican governors and private companies are the ones driving the economic turnaround and not Obama.” The Washington Post highlighted the dynamic between the two governors on MTP: “Pressed by host David Gregory about McDonnell’s potential value to a Romney ticket, O’Malley said of McDonnell: ‘Oh, I don’t know. I think he's a very skilled leader, and he does an able job as the head of the Republican Governors Association.’” You can watch Governors O’Malley and McDonnell on Meet the Press in the video below.

Rogelio Solis / AP

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney speaks at the Mississippi Farmers Market in Jackson, Miss.

Mitt Romney’s campaign and Super PAC have spent more than $2 million ahead of tomorrow’s contests in Alabama and Mississippi. Polls show a tight race, with Romney within the margin of error of the lead against Newt Gingrich.

But Romney is no natural fit in the Deep South -- and he knows it.

"I am learning to say y'all and I like grits,” Romney said Friday. “Strange things are happening to me," added the born-in-Michigan, former Massachusetts governor.

The fact remains that Romney faces an uphill climb tomorrow in Alabama and Mississippi, and it’s not just because he’s not a big grits and biscuits eater. It's demographics.

Looking at three questions in exit polls dealing with education, wealth, and religion, the two states show Romney far outside his comfort zone.

Romney’s wins have all come in places where voters were more educated, wealthier, and less evangelical.

Nine states where Romney won -- and exit polls are available -- showed the average Romney state is a place where 51% of GOP primary voters are college grads, 31% made more than $100,000 a year, and 35% were born-again or evangelical Christians.

The average state Romney lost included 48% college grads, 28% made more than $100,000, and 68% born-again, evangelical Christians. Alabama and Mississippi are even worse than those numbers for Romney.

In 2008, in Alabama, just 42% said they were college grads, 18% made more than $100,000, and 77% were born-again or evangelical Christians. In Mississippi, the numbers were similar -- 38% college grads, 19% made more than $100,000, and 69% were born-again or evangelical Christians.

If the numbers of born-again or evangelical Christians hold, they will be the largest share of any single state to vote yet outside of Tennessee and Oklahoma. Tennessee may be a great example, where Romney allies spent a lot of money, polling started to show him doing well, but in the end, lost by more than pre-primary polls suggested. And Tennessee in 2012 had higher percentages of college grads and those making more than $100,000 than Alabama and Mississippi in 2008.

But if Romney does pull off the win, or does better than expected, of course, that will signal for the first time that Romney can win outside his core groups -- and that conservatives may very well be ready for this race to be over. Or, as some on Twitter and colleagues note, it could just be that Rick Santorum and Gingrich split the conservative vote and give Romney a path to victory.

NBC's Adam Perez contributed to this report.

2008 exit polls:

Mississippi:
38% college graduates
19% made more than $100,000
69% born-again or evangelical Christian

Alabama:
42% were college grad
18% made more than $100,000
77% born again or evangelical

States Romney won 2012:

New Hampshire:
55% college grad
37% made more than $100,000
22% born again/evangelical

Michigan:
51% college grad
33% made more than $100,000
42% evangelical

Ohio:
45% college grad
30% made more than $100,000
49% born again/evangelical

Florida:
50% college grad
31% made more than $100,000
47% born again/evangelical

Nevada:
48% college grad
28% made more than $100,000
28% born-again or evangelical Christian

Arizona:
46% college grad
26% made more than $100,000
42% born-again or evangelical Christian

Massachusetts:
56% college grad
40% made more than $100,000
16% born-again or evangelical Christian

Vermont:
48% college grad
19% made more than $100,000
27% born-again or evangelical Christian 

Virginia:
58% college grad
39% made more than $100,000
46% born-again or evangelical Christian

* Exit polls were not conducted in Maine, Idaho, Wyoming, Guam, the Northern Mariana Island, or the Virgin Islands – all states Romney also won.

States Romney lost 2012

Georgia
52% college grad
38% made more than $100,000
68% born again/evangelical

Iowa
52% college grad
28% made more than $100,000
57% born again/evangelical

Oklahoma
45% college grad
21% made more than $100,000
74% born again/evangelical 

Tennessee
46% college grad
27% made more than $100,000
76% born again/evangelical

South Carolina
47% college grad
27% made more than $100,000
65% born again/evangelical

* Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and North Dakota did not have exit polls

The Justice Department on Monday blocked enforcement of the voter identification law which Texas Gov. Rick Perry signed last spring, contending that it would have a discriminatory impact on Latino voters.

In a letter to Texas Director of Elections Keith Ingram, Assistant Attorney General Thomas Perez said that “according to the state’s own data, a Hispanic registered voter is at least 46.5 percent, and potentially 120.0 percent, more likely than a non-Hispanic registered voter” to lack either a driver’s license or a state-issued identification card, which would be required to vote.

Ralph Barrera / AP

Texas Gov. Rick Perry is interviewed in Austin, Texas, on Tuesday, Feb. 21, 2012.

Under section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, Texas is one of nine states that is required to get pre-approval from the Justice Department or from a federal judge prior to implementing any change in voting procures.

In his letter Monday, Perez also argued that under the Texas law, in order to get a state-issued voter identification card, a voter would need to provide two pieces of secondary identification, or one piece of secondary identification and two supporting documents. “If a voter does not possess any of these documents, the least expensive option will be to spend $22 on a copy of the voter’s birth certificate,” he said. This, Perez said, would impose a burden on Hispanic voters because many have incomes below the federal poverty line.

The Justice Department decision on Monday was expected since it had blocked a similar law in South Carolina, another state also covered by section 5 of the Voting Rights Act.

It is not the end of the battle over voter ID in the Lone Star State. 

In January, Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott asked a federal court in Washington to allow Texas to use its photo ID law. That court has yet to issue a ruling.

Abbott argued that even if the Justice Department contends that the Texas law has the effect of limiting the voting rights of those who do not possess a government-issued photo identification, “it does not do so on account of their race or color -- it does so on account of their decision not to obtain the identification that the State offers free of charge.”

Abbott also argued that other states, such as Indiana, Kansas, and Wisconsin, “have been able to enact and enforce similar laws without interference” from the Justice Department. “Yet Texas is denied that ability to implement election-fraud prevention laws. This creates a two-tracked system of sovereignty,” in which some states can enforce their photo-identification requirements, but Texas cannot, “even though all of these state laws comply with the Constitution.”

Big stakes on Tuesday for Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich… Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi (and focused instead on, say, Illinois)?... NBC’s updated delegate count: Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31… Paul admits his crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box… Is Obama’s good luck beginning to change?... New WaPo/ABC poll shows that gas prices have had an effect on his standing, while the killing of civilians in Afghanistan doesn’t help the mission there, either.

*** Big stakes on Tuesday: After the weekend contests where Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum fought to a delegate draw -- with Santorum winning Kansas, and with Romney winning Guam, the Northern Marianas Islands, and more delegates out of Wyoming -- we now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. And the stakes, once again, are pretty high for the candidates. Romney sneaking out a win in either of the contests would prove that he can win in the South and that conservative GOP voters are beginning to coalesce around his candidacy. But losses in them would confirm that Romney continues to have problems with these voters and -- more importantly -- that the primary season will last through April if not longer. For Santorum, wins in both Alabama and Mississippi would prove that he's the chief conservative alternative to Romney, and that he has the momentum to keep this race going. But losing them would suggest his campaign is running out of gas. And for Gingrich, winning both states would keep his candidacy alive, but losses in these southern states would reveal that he’s become a political zombie, propped up solely by Sheldon Adelson and the pro-Gingrich Super PAC. Those are the stakes for tomorrow.

Don Emmert / AFP - Getty Images

Republican presidential candidates Rick Santorum, Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich now turn to Tuesday's primaries in Alabama and Mississippi.

*** Could Romney have written off Alabama and Mississippi? And right now, we have no idea how tomorrow’s races will play out. The polling has been all over the place, while last week’s Super Tuesday contests in Tennessee and Oklahoma suggest that Santorum should be the favorite and Romney and Gingrich the underdogs. If Romney ends up losing both primaries, it will raise this question: Did he make a mistake by campaigning too much -- and thus raising the stakes -- in a region where he’s struggled. After all, he’s campaigned aggressively in both Mississippi and Alabama (with comedian Jeff Foxworthy today), and he and the pro-Romney Super PAC have dropped nearly $2 million in advertising in these two states, vastly outspending the competition. Yes, win or lose, Romney is likely to pick up delegates in these states. But he also could have written them off and campaigned instead in Illinois, where a new Chicago Tribune/WGN poll shows him narrowly leading Santorum, 35%-31%. It appears Romney’s over-performance in both public and private polls in Tennessee convinced the campaign that it had a shot in the Volunteer State only to lose it by a bigger margin than any late poll had predicted. Just something to keep in mind.

*** Updated delegate count: Over the weekend, according to NBC News, Rick Santorum won 36 delegates (33 in Kansas and three in Wyoming), while Mitt Romney won 35 (25 in the island territories, seven in Kansas, and three additional delegates in Wyoming). That brings the NBC delegate to Romney 377, Santorum 146, Gingrich 112, and Paul 31. Remember, our delegate count is based on what the local and state parties are doing -- not simply allocating blindly if the process between the caucus and the state convention is vastly different, which in many cases it is.

*** Paul’s crowds haven’t translated at the ballot box: By the way, Paul has still yet to win a contest. And he addressed this on Saturday while in Missouri. “Some days I wished I could understand exactly why these crowds of three and four and sometimes five thousand people coming out doesn’t translate into more votes,” he said, per NBC’s Anthony Terrell. “I’m just wondering, why that happens. The one thing I know is the revolution is alive and well and they will not stop us!” The words of a candidate who is starting to have doubts as to why he’s still running…

*** On the trail: On his 65^th birthday today, Romney is in Alabama, where he campaigns with comedian Jeff Foxworthy in Mobile… And Gingrich and Santorum both stump in both Mississippi and Alabama, where they both attend a Gulf Coast Energy Summit in Biloxi, MS and a state GOP event in Birmingham, AL.

*** Is Obama’s luck beginning to change? President Obama has been a pretty lucky man these first few months of 2012. The U.S. economy and the labor market have been picking up steam; Republicans appeared to have overplayed their hands on social issues (like contraception and abortion); and the GOP primary race has damaged the party’s brand. But in the past 24 hours, we’ve received a couple of reminders that luck -- especially regarding things outside your control -- can change. The first: a new Washington Post/ABC poll showing that the rising gas prices seemed to have dented Obama’s standing. “Disapproval of President Obama’s handling of the economy is heading higher — alongside gasoline prices — as a record number of Americans now give the president “strongly” negative reviews on the 2012 presidential campaign’s most important issue,” the Washington Post writes of its poll, which has Obama’s approval rating now at 46% and has Romney up by two points in a head to head. Although gas prices do change (and the price of oil today has fallen), they do impact a president’s approval rating. And let’s not forget the GOP’s message discipline on this issue; does an hour go by without Republicans putting out a hit on Obama and gas prices? *** UPDATE *** Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz emails First Read to argue that, per his observations, high gas prices really don't impact a president's approval rating.

*** Less and less support for the war in Afghanistan? And then there are the issues overseas, which can change a president’s fortunes overnight. Keep a close eye on how the news that a U.S. Army sergeant killed at least 16 civilians (nine of them children) in Afghanistan could change opinion on that issue. And this comes after some in the U.S. military mistakenly burned the Koran, and it comes as the Obama administration is hoping to make an orderly exit from Afghanistan. The political reaction we’ve heard from both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum on these civilian killings suggests that there is less and less American support for the war there. What little appetite the public had for Afghanistan might get even smaller.

Countdown to Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi: 1 day
Countdown to Election Day: 239 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

BRANDON, Miss. -- Speaking before a congregation just outside the capital of Mississippi, Newt Gingrich shared his story of seeking God’s forgiveness Sunday

“There were things in my life that I have been very public about saying were, in fact, well short of the glory of God and I had to go to God to seek forgiveness,” Gingrich said to the several hundred people in attendance at First Baptist Church. “I never went to God to seek understanding. And I was never confused. That is, there are periods of my life where I have sinned.”

The former House Speaker, who had marital indiscretions in the 1990s, says he now has a strong relationship with his family, including his third wife, Callista, whom he married shortly after leaving Congress.

“I have been very, very fortunate that I have a very, very close relationship with Callista. We are very close to my two daughters who have been campaigning with us. We are extremely close to my two grandchildren who are 10 and 12,” Gingrich stated during some of his most in-depth remarks on his family life. “But I had to earn being a 68 year-old grandfather by living through things that I would never want my grandchildren to repeat.”

Gingrich is campaigning down in Alabama and Mississippi in the lead up to the two state’s primaries. He frequently visits churches on Sundays and today was no different. Gingrich attended three different services in the South while his wife was back in Washington, D.C. singing in the choir at the Basilica of the National Shrine.

Concluding his brief remarks at the church Brandon, Gingrich acknowledged he is not a “perfect” person.

“I come to you as a citizen who has sought redemption and has sought God's love and recognizes that you have to shelter under the cross to have any hope of living a full life and I'm very grateful of having the chance to be with you this evening,” he said.

The former speaker held a rally across town at City Hall following the church service.

Rick Santorum thinks a Newt Gingrich exit from the race would create a "better opportunity to make sure that [Republicans] nominate a conservative," in the Fall. However, the former Pennsylvania senator stopped short of calling for Gingrich's withdrawal.

"I didn't ask Speaker Gingrich to get in. I'm not going to ask him to get out.," Santorum said.  He hopes that Gingrich's exit would galvanize Republican voters to unite behind Santorum as the lone conservative alternative to Mitt Romney. 

Santorum also made the case that the delegate math is not as steeped in favor of Romney as commentators make it out to be. "This isn't a mathematical formula. This race has a tremendous amount of dynamics," Santorum said.

He cited the fact that many of Mitt Romney's awarded delegates are uncommitted and can change to support Santorum. "These numbers are going to change dramatically," he said. 

Also, Governors Martin O'Malley (D-MD) and Bob McDonnell (R-VA) joined me to weigh in on the 2012 race. O'Malley panned the Republican field for focusing more on getting votes, rather than trying to fix the country's problems. 

"Let's be honest, there's been a lot more time spent pandering to the extreme right wing ideologues of the new Republican party than has been spent talking about jobs and economy," O'Malley said.

McDonnell, a Mitt Romney supporter who has been mentioned as a possible VP choice, attacked President Obama for bringing "division and malaise" to the country. When asked whether or not he wanted to be president, McDonnell responded "No. I got the job held by Jefferson and Henry. I love being governor of Virginia."

You can watch our entire program on our website, including our political roundtable that addressed the question of whether or not civility is gone in American politics today. I was joined by MSNBC’s Al Sharpton,  Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), Washington Post’s EJ Dionne, and the Wall Street Journal’s Peggy Noonan.

We'll be back next week. If it's Sunday, it's Meet the Press.

Authors John Heilemann and Mark Halperin believe the new HBO movie Game Change, based on their 2010 bestselling book of the same name, paints an accurate picture of former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin during her time as John McCain's running mate in 2008. 

"Its hard for any public figure to see themselves presented on the page or on screen as a person in full," John Heilemann said. "I think if she could see it through fair eyes.  She would think it was a fair treatment."

The film, which debuts on HBO this Saturday night, centers on the few months of the campaign from when Sarah Palin was announced as the Vice Presidential candidate to election night. The book, however, contained a much broader range of topics and told the story of all the candidates that cycle.

The reason, Halperin says, is that Palin’s roughly 60-day foray into the public spotlight was more compatible to a compelling storyline on the silver screen as compared to the drawn out two-year saga of Obama vs. Clinton. But more importantly, as John Heilemann put is, "She’s an incredibly relatable character... She was the everywoman."

As far as the 2012 race, Mark Halperin believes that the different external factors this cycle will provide for numerous compelling story lines. 

"You’ve got the Tea Party movement, you’ve got Occupy Wall Street , you have lots of rich people who want to affect the outcome of the race, you’ve got a string of fascinating Republican candidates, so and the election is taking place in an environment more volatile than anything I’ve ever covered in my career, so I think we’re okay."

David discusses the week that was in politics, including Super Tuesday and the status of the GOP presidential campaigns.

With President Barack Obama and Defense Secretary Leon Panetta not ruling out military action against Iran and Syria, Congress is once again trying to figure out its role in war making.

The House last June found itself in the paradoxical position of voting to defeat a resolution authorizing Obama to use force in Libya -- but also defeating a proposal to cut off funding for the operation. In effect, the House said it would keep paying for a war it did not authorize.

J. Scott Applewhite / AP

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, Wednesday March 7, 2012, before the Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the crisis in Syria and the risks for U.S. involvement.

Although Obama has warned Congress and the Republican presidential contenders against talk of a precipitous war against Iran, he hasn’t ruled out ordering military action to stop the Tehran regime from developing nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile Sen. John McCain, R- Ariz., called this week for air strikes on Syria. And Panetta said Wednesday “potential military options, if necessary” are being considered by the Obama administration against the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.

Sometimes, as in the case of Libya, Congress votes too late on a resolution authorizing the president to use force. By the time the House voted on a resolution authorizing Obama to use force against Libya, he’d already ordered U.S. forces, as part of a NATO mission, to attack targets in that nation three months earlier.

Sometimes as in the case of invading Iraq in 2003, Congress votes to authorize an action the president made clear he was going to take anyway, no matter what Congress did.

Recommended: First Thoughts: 227,000 jobs created last month

This week Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell came up with a new approach to the congressional role in war making. In a speech to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, McConnell said that if U.S. intelligence agencies presented Congress with an assessment that Iran had begun to enrich uranium to weapons-grade levels, “or has taken a decision to develop a nuclear weapon” he would consult with Obama and then introduce an authorization for the use of military force.

He said passage of an authorization would ensure that “we have a coherent, unified policy toward Iran and that we not take on another military action without bipartisan support.”

But even with the kind of vote McConnell envisions, no Congress can force a president to launch a military strike he does not choose to launch.

Instead of being too late, as in Libya, would McConnell’s idea be a case of Congress moving too soon?

“I think the Israelis have avoided drawing lines so he probably should not draw red lines at this time either,” said Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D- Mich. Thursday. “I think it’s better to kind of keep them guessing. That’s what the Israelis are doing. The prime minster of Israel specifically said he’s not specifying what they may do under what conditions, so I think that McConnell would be wise not to specify at this time either” – other than reiterating that “all options are on the table.”

Sen. Susan Collins, R- Maine, a member of the Armed Services Committee, said, “I think he (McConnell) was trying to send a signal to the Iranians that there is a red line here and if the Iranians cross it, there would be support in Congress for strong action. I think he was trying to send a signal to the administration that it needs to be tougher in its approach with the Iranians.”

But, she added, “I think it’s a long way from actually authorizing the use of force.”

Collins thinks presidents should get authorization from Congress in order to launch military actions.

In Libya, she said, Obama “should have received congressional authorization and I felt the president violated the War Powers Act in not doing so.” Collins said it isn’t simply a matter of congressional authorization ensuring that a war will have public backing: “It’s a matter of following the law and respecting the Constitution.”

As for Syria, McCain said Thursday a congressional authorization to use force “would be useful, but I think right now you’d have to have the president ask for it” and there would need to be more public support. “But, believe me; momentum is building in our direction: look at the lead editorial in the Washington Post this morning.” That editorial called for Obama to build an international consensus to use force against Assad’s regime.

Related: Senate rejects GOP environment, energy proposals

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R- S.C., a believer in robust presidential war-making powers, said, “I think the president could deploy military force in this situation without an authorization from Congress.”

Graham said he wants Obama to lead an international coalition which would provide humanitarian aid to Syrians under attack from the Assad regime and which might impose a no-fly zone “to give breathing space to the people about to be slaughtered and create a sanctuary where they re-group, organize and be trained.” He emphasized that he did not want the United States to act unilaterally.

But even if there were a congressional resolution to use force in Syria, unintended consequences might follow.

Louis Fisher, a war powers scholar at the Constitution Project, a Washington think tank said that a congressional resolution is not in itself an insurance policy against misguided presidential action.

“My first thought is the disaster of the Tonkin Gulf Resolution” by which authorized use of force against North Vietnam in 1964, he said. “Yes, it featured Congress ‘authorizing’ a war but the resolution was carelessly drafted and permitted (President Lyndon) Johnson to escalate the war the next year. The Iraq Resolution of 2002 is another example of a misconceived effort to authorize war. Congress is supposed to make the decision. Instead the resolution left the question of military action to (President) Bush.”

As for McConnell’s idea, Fisher said “This legislation seems to give the intelligence community a trigger to authorize military action against Iran.” Based on how the intelligence agencies performed in the run-up to the Iraq war, he said, that might be a grave error.

Even though Graham doesn’t think Obama needs a vote by Congress to act against Syria, he did say that a congressional authorization “always bolsters your case, it’s always good to have the country behind military action.”

But in fast-moving situations the president cannot and should not wait: “When the president hits these guys in Somalia, go get ‘em. We’ve given the authorization to use force against al Qaida (in the 2001 congressional vote).”

Yet, 11 years after the congressional vote to give Bush the power to fight al Qaida and allied groups, Graham said there are murky post-9/11 cases in which it is not clear how far congressional authorization reaches: “What about these spin-off groups, al-Shabaab (in Somalia) and these other groups that are just beginning to spin off? AQIM (an Algerian-based jihadist group), what about them? So we need to think this thing through.”

He said, “These are really good questions; I don’t know the answers to them all.”

227,000 jobs created in February, unemployment rate remains unchanged at 8.3%... Santorum’s goal next week: to knock out Gingrich… Breaking down Romney’s cash-flow situation (and the problems he could have later this spring/summer)… But Romney will have cavalry that could ride to his help… Keep an eye on the Republicans standing on the sidelines in the GOP race… Rock chalk, Jayhawk: Kansas caucuses take place on Saturday… And Santorum to appear on “Meet.”

*** 227,000 jobs created last month: Another month, another positive jobs report. The breaking news from the AP: “U.S. employers added 227,000 jobs in January to complete three of the best months of hiring since the recession began. The unemployment rate was unchanged, largely because more people streamed into the work force… And hiring in January and December was better than first thought. The government revised those figures to show 61,000 an additional jobs. The economy has now generated an average of 245,000 jobs in the past three months. The only stretch better was since the recession began was in early 2010, when temporary Census jobs lifted payrolls.” The current trajectory for the economy and the labor market is pretty unmistakable. Then again, we still have eight more jobs reports until the November presidential election. President Obama speaks on the economy in Prince George, VA at 12:30 pm ET, while the RNC holds a conference call to pre-but it.

Eric Gay / AP

Republican presidential candidate Sen. Rick Santorum speaks during the Alabama Policy Institute 2012 Presidential Candidate Forum, Thursday, March 8, 2012, in Mobile, Alabama.

Like us on Facebook for the latest from our politics team

*** Santorum’s goal: to knock out Gingrich: As the GOP primary campaign has moved to the South -- to Alabama and Mississippi -- Rick Santorum has excellent chance to win both contests this Tuesday, as well as Saturday’s caucuses in Kansas (more on that Kansas race below). But as msnbc.com’s Mike O’Brien pointed out yesterday, Santorum has a more immediate goal with these contests: push Newt Gingrich out of the race. So campaigning in Alabama yesterday, per NBC’s Jay Rankin, Santorum made a pitch for a two-man race: “If you go out and deliver a conservative victory for us on Tuesday, this race will become a two-person race. And when it becomes a two-person race for the Republican nomination, the conservative will win that nomination.” And the pro-Santorum Super PAC, Red White and Blue Fund, released a new TV ad (in Alabama and Mississippi) that hits BOTH Mitt Romney and Gingrich.

*** Romney’s cash-flow situation: Yesterday, the Romney campaign revealed it raised $11.5 million in February and had $7.3 million in the bank as of Feb. 29. But when you consider that the campaign spent nearly $1.3 million on TV ads from March 1-6, per the ad-tracking firm Smart Media, it really has $6 million in the bank -- or even less when you consider payroll and travel expenses. Of course, that doesn’t count whatever the campaign has raised in March, but it does raise a cash-flow question for Team Romney: It has money (and more than its GOP rivals), yet is it enough to withstand another two more months of this primary race? And more importantly, will it be enough to withstand a potential offensive from the Obama camp and Democrats whenever Romney wraps up the primary? Remember, a presidential candidate CAN’T use general-election funds until after his party’s convention. So for the folks who have already maxed out to Romney with primary funds -- representing about two-thirds of his money to date -- the $2,500 they might be able to donate for the general couldn’t be spent until late August.

*** Send the cavalry! Buy if Romney essentially wraps up the nomination later this spring, there would be plenty of cavalry that could ride to his help -- the Republican National Committee (which last night reported having $26.5 million in the bank), the Karl Rove-backed American Crossroads groups, the Koch Brothers-backed Americans for Prosperity, and the pro-Romney Super PAC (which has spent a whopping $28 million on ads so far). And, of course, you’d imagine that Romney would be able to raise A LOT more money from Republican donors once he becomes the presumptive nominee. But at the moment he does, Team Obama would start with a clear money advantage. The question is: How quickly would Team Romney (and its allies) be able to reach parity?  

*** Republicans standing on the sidelines: Here’s another question we have: When will we see more prominent figures of the GOP establishment -- like Jeb Bush, Lindsey Graham, Paul Ryan, Haley Barbour, and Mitch Daniels -- step up and endorse the former Massachusetts governor? In the past few days, we’ve seen more and more members of the establishment (Eric Cantor over the weekend, and Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant last night) back Romney. But the others have stayed on the sidelines for now. It will be interesting to see if/when they get on the field. 

*** Rock chalk, Jayhawk: By the way, we have another contest this weekend: Saturday’s Kansas caucuses. According to NBC’s John Bailey, caucusing begins in the Sunflower State at 11:00 am ET (10:00 am local) and wraps up at 2:00 pm ET (1:00 pm local). Ballots will be counted at each caucus sit, and then results will be called in to party headquarters. The Kansas GOP expects the first results to come in around 2:30 pm ET and hopes to have all results in between 5:00 pm ET and 6:00 pm ET. Bailey adds that 40 delegates are at stake: 12 are congressional-district delegates awarded on a winner-take-all basis within each district; 25 are at-large delegates awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote (but a candidate must get at least 20% support to qualify); and all three national committee delegates go to the statewide winner. In 2008, Mike Huckabee won the caucuses with 60% of the vote, besting runner-up John McCain by 36 points. Mitt Romney had already left the race at that point and got negligible support. Also on Saturday, we'll find out the preference of seven more Wyoming delegates.

*** On the trail: Romney campaigns in Jackson, MS then heads to Birmingham, AL…Gingrich makes three stops in Mississippi (Meridian, Ellisville, and Gulfport) then hosts a rally in Mobile, AL… Santorum campaigns in Alabama and then heads to Kansas, where he holds two events… And Paul -- back on the trail -- also campaigns in Kansas. 

*** On “Meet the Press” this Sunday: NBC’s David Gregory interviews Santorum, as well as Govs. Martin O’Malley (D) and Bob McDonnell (R). 

Countdown to Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi: 4 days
Countdown to Election Day: 242 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

The Senate killed Republican-backed attempts to overturn several of President Barack Obama's environmental and energy policies Thursday as lawmakers worked against a March 31 deadline to keep aid flowing to more than 100,000 transportation construction projects around the country.

The two-year, $109 billion transportation bill before the Senate has wide, bipartisan support, but has become a magnet for lawmakers' favorite causes and partisan gamesmanship. Among the amendments batted aside were GOP proposals to bypass Obama's concerns about the Keystone XL oil pipeline, to delay tougher air pollution standards for industrial boilers and to expand offshore oil drilling.

Action on those and other amendments came under an agreement between Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., aimed at clearing the way for passage of the transportation bill next week.

Like us on Facebook to keep up with the latest from our political unit

Obama lobbied some Senate Democrats by telephone ahead of the Keystone vote, urging them to oppose an amendment by Sen. John Hoeven, R-N.D., that would have prevented the president from intervening in decisions related to construction of the pipeline and would have speeded its approval. Pointing to the administration's environmental concerns about the project, which would carry tar sands oil from Canada to the Texas Gulf Coast, Republicans accused Obama of standing in the way greater oil supplies at a time when Americans are coping with rising gasoline prices.

But some Democrats, especially those from oil producing states, were torn between support for the pipeline and their support for the president. The amendment was defeated 56-42, even though 11 Democrats broke ranks to support it. Sixty votes were needed for passage.

Recommended: In bipartisan vote, House jobs bill passes overwhelmingly

Republican leaders jumped on the White House lobbying.

"Most Americans strongly support building this pipeline and the jobs that would come with it," McConnell said in a statement.

The president's lobbying against the Keystone provision came "a week after the president signaled to me and to Sen. McConnell that he might be willing to work with us on some bipartisan steps forward on energy legislation that the American people support," House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, told reporters. "If we're going to have bipartisan action on energy, the Keystone pipeline is an obvious place to start."

White House spokesman Jay Carney said Obama felt it was "wrong to play politics" with the pipeline, especially since the company behind the project has said it still was working on a final route that might satisfy environmental concerns. He also said it was "false advertising" to suggest the amendment would have any impact on gasoline prices.

Also defeated was an amendment by Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, which would have forced the Environmental Protection Agency to rewrite a rule requiring boiler operators to install modern emissions controls. Boilers are the second-largest source of toxic mercury emissions after coal-fired power plants. Collins said the EPA's rule would drive some manufacturers out of business.

And the Senate turned down an amendment to expand offshore oil drilling even though its sponsor, Sen. David Vitter, D-La., contended it would increase domestic energy supplies and reduce gas prices.

The transportation bill itself would overhaul federal transportation programs, including boosting aid to highway and transit programs, streamline some environmental regulations in order to speed up approval of projects and consolidate dozens of programs.

Lawmakers are under pressure to act quickly because the government's authority to collect about $110 million a day in federal gasoline and diesel taxes and to spend money out of the trust fund that pays for highway and transit programs expires at the end of the month. Chris Bertram, a Transportation Department official, said that if Congress doesn't meet the deadline, aid to about 130,000 transportation projects around the country will be disrupted and federal workers who send that money to states will be furloughed.

The construction industry, already suffering 17.7 percent unemployment at the end of January, would be especially hurt.

House Republicans crafted their own five-year, $260 billion bill, but they've been unable to marshal the support of rank-and-file lawmakers behind it. Conservatives say it spends too much money, while moderates say it would penalize union workers and undermine environmental provisions.

Boehner conceded Thursday that for the moment the House's best option is to take up the Senate bill after it passes — "or something like it" — although GOP leaders were still talking to their members in the hope of resurrecting their bill.

The inability of House Republicans to pass a highway bill of their own is an example of a paralysis that has struck several times in the past year. Last summer, an impasse over labor issues and subsidies for rural airports led to a two-week shutdown of non-essential Federal Aviation Administration operations.

In December, Boehner overrode his own rank-and-file when he agreed to a deal to extend the Social Security payroll tax cut after most lawmakers had gone home.

Mike Blake / Reuters

Sherrod, a U.S. Department of Agriculture official, made headlines over the past two weeks for her forced resignation from the USDA after conservative blogger Andrew Breitbart posted video excerpts of Sherrod's address at a March 2010 NAACP event on his website.

Newly released Obama administration e-mails show the White House was more active than believed in the Agriculture Department's decision in 2010 to seek the resignation of federal employee Shirley Sherrod.

   E-mails obtained by The Associated Press under the Freedom of Information Act don't contradict Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack's assertion that he alone made the decision to oust Sherrod over a speech initially determined to have been racist. But they do show that White House officials were closely involved in the process from the first minutes the scandal began to emerge, offering advice and counsel to Agriculture officials.

   USDA officials asked Sherrod, who is black, to resign after an edited video of supposedly racist remarks surfaced on a conservative website. It turned out the speech promoted racial reconciliation.

Following the mixed results for Mitt Romney on Super Tuesday -- winning a majority of delegates, but failing to pull away from his GOP rivals -- the conservative blogosphere wasn't too impressed with Romney's showing.

Conservative blogger Jazz Shaw from Hot Air wrote:

“Say, do you remember that time when Mitt Romney waded into the battle on Super Tuesday and knocked out his foes with an inspiring, decisive victory? Yeah…me either. Last night had to be pretty much of a disappointment no matter who you happen to support…But once all of the “victory party” hangovers have begun to fade, the results were less than impressive. We can justifiably say that Mitt “won” by racking up victories in Ohio, Massachusetts, Idaho, Virginia, Vermont and Alaska, along with a fairly impressive haul of delegates. But the Buckeye State victory came by a margin that wouldn’t fill up a decent college football game audience.”

Rich Lowry of the conservative blog NRO said the enthusiasm gap that surrounds Romney  has made him  “The candidate of ‘Eh.

“‘Eh, I guess’ looks to be the motto he’ll have to try to ride to the nomination. It was an “eh” night for Romney, although he avoided catastrophe by pulling out a razor-thin win in Ohio where he was trailing most of the night.

Otherwise, he won one state where he used to be governor (Massachusetts), a small Northeastern state (Vermont), an essentially uncontested Southern state (Virginia), and a heavily Mormon state out West (Idaho). In Virginia, he couldn’t get to 60 percent against just Ron Paul. Rarely has a candidate seemed so inevitable and so weak at the same time.”

NRO blogger Jim Geraghty echoed the general sentiment that Romney’s big wins in Michigan and Arizona, were supposed to start uniting the party -- but haven’t.

“Instead, the frontrunner has a problem with the Midwest and South that is keeping him at less than 3 in 10 right now. That was good enough for second place in most of these states, but that’s still setting a low bar — beat out Ron Paul and, in most cases, Newt, who is becoming an afterthought. Sure, Romney had a great night in terms of delegates. I stand by my assessment that his road to the nomination is the hardest, except for all of the others. But he’s still got glaring weaknesses in connecting with people. Maybe it’s the Mormon issue. Maybe it’s his background. But I think the “brokered convention yields a surprise nominee” talk just got a new jolt of energy this morning.”

But James Antle III, from the American Spectator, says Romney “winning six out of ten states is far from bad."

“Romney's performance looks even better when you focus on delegates won. He took all the delegates from Massachusetts, nearly all of them from Virginia, and won delegates even in every single state he lost. Although the popular vote in Ohio was close, the delegate allocation was not. The delegate math for Romney's opponents has become daunting, to say the least...

“I think Romney is starting to piece together a decent critique of President Obama's record -- one that will resonate with both conservatives and moderates. Serious questions remain as to whether he is the right man for that message.”

Erick Erickson of Redstate writes, despite last night’s win, Romney needs to readjust his campaign.

“Were I Mitt Romney I’d be wondering how I spent 5.5 times as much money as Rick Santorum and barely won Ohio. I’d be wondering who on my campaign staff gets fired first. Mitt Romney has been running since 2006, has the best organization, and the most money. He won his home state of Michigan by less than 3%. He won Ohio barely after pouring in money. A win is a win is a win. But with each Romney win, he comes away even more badly bruised.

The rest of March will be just as brutal. What a mess.”

Which candidate gives Republicans the best chance to defeat President Barack Obama in November?

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Supporters of President Barack Obama rally March 5 in Youngstown, Ohio.

One can’t infer too much from Tuesday’s exit poll data since Tuesday's electorate wasn’t the one which will show up November. But if you were a Republican, and assuming that victory in November were your highest priority, would you have rather have a candidate (such as Rick Santorum) who did not win a plurality of college-educated voters in Ohio, who did not win a plurality of voters in suburban counties, who did not win working women, and who did not win moderates?

Related: Romney best able to beat Obama, but still not loved, exit polls say

Or would you rather have one (like Mitt Romney) who did not carry rural counties, who did not win a plurality of evangelical Christians, who didn’t do well among voters for whom sharing the same religious faith as their candidate is a top priority, and who did not win the most conservative voters in Tennessee and Georgia?

The November electorate will be much bigger and -- by definition -- much closer to the nation’s political center than the one we saw on Tuesday, and Romney won in places the Republicans need to win: in affluent suburbia, for example. In Hamilton County, Ohio, which includes Cincinnati and its suburbs, Romney defeated Santorum by 20 percentage points.

Like us on Facebook for the latest from our political unit

That doesn’t necessarily mean that Romney will carry Hamilton County in November if he’s the GOP nominee; Obama carried it in the 2008 general election with 53 percent -- his national average in the popular vote. George W. Bush had carried it in 2004 with 52 percent and in 2000 with 54 percent. But Romney’s victory in Hamilton County on Tuesday would at least seem to give the GOP a better chance to carry that county against Obama.

In affluent suburban Williamson County, Tenn., near Nashville, Romney defeated Santorum by four points. Fifty-two percent of people in Williamson County have a college degree, according to the U.S. Census, compared to 23 percent for Tennessee as a whole. Romney won the kind of highly educated people who tend to live in urban and suburban America and not in rural towns: people with post-graduate education much preferred Romney to his rivals in Ohio.

Romney also showed more appeal to working women voters on Tuesday -- in Ohio, he won 43 percent of working women, while Santorum netted 35 percent.

And in Ohio, Romney also beat Santorum among single women: 45 percent to 28 percent for Santorum. Surely one of the urgent tasks for the Republicans in November is to be competitive among female voters: the GOP can’t afford to cede women to the Democrats as they did in 2008, when Obama won female voters by 13 points over McCain.

Another finding that might be encouraging to Republicans who want to appeal to the broader November electorate is that Romney did better than Santorum among people who did not rate religion as an especially significant marker: among voters who said it was not important that a candidate shares their religious beliefs, Romney won 43 percent in Ohio, to Santorum’s 31 percent.

None of this is to take away from Santorum’s achievement: he won 91 of 95 counties in Tennessee and he won 69 of 88 counties in Ohio. He ran nine points ahead of Romney in Tennessee. But in both states, Santorum mostly won the less populated rural counties while Romney did better in cities and suburban counties.

Santorum beat Romney by 28 points among Ohio Republicans who called themselves “very conservative” on social issues.

But Romney, who once supported abortion rights and was elected governor of one of the most liberal states in the nation, won by 18 points among voters who called themselves moderate or liberal on social issues.

One of Romney’s liabilities is that social conservatives cannot bring themselves to trust him; they don’t see him as genuinely conservative -- despite his claim that he is “severely conservative” and that on same-sex marriage, for instance, he “kept Massachusetts from becoming the Las Vegas of same sex marriage,” as he said in his speech to the Conservative Political Action Conference in Washington last month.

Even if Romney chose an impeccably conservative running mate, that might not win their trust. If Romney is the Republican nominee, we don't know if some conservatives will forsake Romney as some of them abandoned McCain in 2008. Romney may be no more appealing to staunch conservatives than was McCain in 2008.

But in the fall campaign Romney would have a great advantage that McCain didn't have when he faced Obama in 2008. Voters– especially small-government conservatives -- can now see Obama's beliefs in action: the $830 billion stimulus, the failed Solyndra grant, the transformation of the nation’s health care system, and increases in taxes on upper-income people (included in the 2010 health care bill) are all now a reality. In 2008 they were only a possibility.

Mitt Romney vowed Wednesday to fight as long as it takes to secure the GOP nomination, while his campaign sought to let the weight of inevitability sink into the Republican primary battle.

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney cheer at his primary election rally in Boston, Mass.

"I must admit that after last night, I feel pretty darn good. We had a very good response across the country," Romney said Wednesday morning on CNBC. "I'm prepared to fight all the way to become the nominee. We've got a very strong lead in delegates, a very strong lead in terms of the number of people who actually voted for our campaign."

Related: First Thoughts: Unable to pull away
 
The former Massachusetts governor's confidence follows a night of Super Tuesday contests which essentially resulted in a split decision between him, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich.
 
While Romney won the night's biggest prize, Ohio, he did so by a narrow margin that did nothing to put the nomination fight on a path toward conclusion.

Moreover, exit polling in Ohio and other contests pointed to Romney's continued difficulties in winning over conservatives, evangelical Christians, and downscale voters -- three core constituencies in the modern Republican Party.

Related: Exit polls: Romney best able to beat Obama, but still not loved
 
But Romney's campaign characterized yesterday's contests as the "last stand" for his primary foes, one in which they failed to eat into his lead in the delegate battle.
 
"Super Tuesday (and its 437 delegates) was a one-time opportunity for Governor Romney’s opponents to diminish his delegate lead and claim any kind of 'comeback,'" Romney political director Rich Beeson wrote in a memo released to reporters. "They failed yesterday, and the calendar now only offers incremental opportunities to make headway."

Related: Romney campaign says losing nomination would take act of god
 
But neither Santorum nor Gingrich appeared anywhere near willing to end their campaigns. While they have tended to split the conservative vote versus Romney in states where they have both competed, Gingrich and Santorum each planned to forge ahead after Super Tuesday.
 
To that end, the Red, White and Blue Fund -- a super PAC that supports Santorum -- called on Gingrich to end his campaign.

Like us on Facebook for the latest from our politics team
 
"With Gingrich exiting the race it would be a true head-to-head race and conservatives would be able to make a choice between a consistent conservative in Rick Santorum or Mitt Romney," said Stuart Roy, an adviser to the super PAC. "For instance, with Gingrich out of the race Santorum would have won both Ohio and Michigan.  Newt has become a hindrance to a conservative alternative."
 
"If I thought he was a slam dunk to beat Romney and to beat Obama I would really consider getting out. I don’t," Gingrich told conservative Bill Bennett on his radio show. "I think each of the three candidates has strengths and weaknesses and that this is a very healthy vetting process."
 
But the lure of a favorable primary calendar appeared to keep both Santorum's and Gingrich's hopes alive.

Kansas, where Santorum started his day Wednesday, hosts a caucus Saturday. Mississippi and Alabama, along with Hawaii, each host their nominating contests on Tuesday. A spokesman for Gingrich told NBC News on Wednesday that the ex-speaker would focus exclusively on those states in the coming week, and said he must win both to remain a credible candidate.
 
The infighting comes at the delight, though, of President Barack Obama's re-election effort. David Axelrod, a senior adviser to the campaign, said the Republican infighting has allowed them to build a major organization awaiting the eventual nominee -- probably Romney -- come November.
 
"He [Romney] continues to kind of grind out tactical victories in a kind of death march here," Axelrod told reporters on a conference call. "He may be the nominee … but meanwhile we’re using this time to build. While they’re destroying each other, we’re building a national campauign."
 
And given the discord in the primary, the specter of a contested or brokered convention has continued to linger over the GOP contest. Sarah Palin, who caucused for Gingrich on Tuesday evening in her native Alaska, refused to rule out stepping forward as a candidate at the August convention in case no candidate were to win the delegate battle.
 
On Wednesday morning, Romney made a point of saying he was "sure" that the Republican nominee against Obama would be one of the four candidates in the race right now.
 
"One thing I can tell you for sure is there's not going to be a brokered convention, where some new person comes in and becomes the nominee," Romney said on CNBC. "It's going to be one of the four people that are still running."
 
NBC's Alex Moe contributed to this report.

Fresh off his victory in six of 10 Super Tuesday states, Republican front-runner Mitt Romney appeared on CNBC and acknowledged that it was impossible to measure the impact of his tax plan.

"It can't be scored because those details are going to have to be worked out with Congress and we have a wide array of options," he said in response to a question by CNBC anchor Becky Quick.

Romney previously has insisted that his plan to cut marginal individual tax rates by 20 percent won't increase the deficit because he would limit deductions and exemptions for the wealthy.

Romney insisted in the interview that he's "getting the kind of support across the party that I need to become the nominee."

He hasn't outlined what those changes would be, and says he'll work with Congress.

Romney also said he would consider changing a provision of the tax code that has benefited high-earning investment fund managers, including himself.

"That's probably something we should take a close look at," he said when asked about the controversial tax treatment of "carried interest."

The carried interest tax break lets executives of private equity firms and some hedge funds pay the 15 percent capital gains tax on a large portion of their earnings, rather than the top ordinary income tax of 35 percent.

President Barack Obama, in his 2013 budget plan, called for ending the tax break. He has the support of some Democrats in Congress, where legislation to carry out his proposal has been filed.

"If it's ordinary income, you should treat it as ordinary income," Romney said. "If it's capital gain, you should treat it as capital gain."

He said that a true capital gain involves investment risk, whereas ordinary income does not.

Romney paid an effective tax rate of abut 14 percent for 2010 and expected to pay about 15 percent for 2011, according to tax returns and estimates he released in January.

Unlike most Americans, he gets the bulk of his income from investment profits, dividends and interest. He got about $13 million in 'carried interest' income over the past two years.

One of the wealthiest Americans ever to seek the presidency, Romney's fortune has been estimated at $250 million, much of it made during the years when he bought and sold companies for a profit as an executive at the Bain Capital private equity firm.

Watch the full interview:

Reuters and The Associated Press contributed to this story.

See full coverage at NBCPolitics.com

Despite winning just one state last night, Newt Gingrich is vowing to stay in the race.

"We are staying in this race, because I believe it is going to be impossible for a moderate to win the general election," Gingrich said.

He dismissed Rick Santorum as a "good team member," but one who can't change the game.

"With all respect to my friend from Pennsylvania, Sen. Santorum," Gingrich said, "there is a big difference between being a good team member and changing the game."

The comments are similar to what Gingrich said this morning on Bill Bennett's "Morning in America" radio show.

"If I thought he was a slam dunk to beat Romney and to beat Obama, I would really consider getting out," Gingrich said of Santorum on the show. "I don’t ... I think each of the three candidates has strengths and weaknesses and that this is a very healthy vetting process.”

Gingrich refused to set the bar of when he might drop out.

"If you asked Rick Santorum that question immediately after Nevada, what would we have said?" Gingrich retorted. "He had been running fourth for a month and -- including me -- people were saying maybe he should drop out. He ignored all those. He now has had a terrific month. I think you have to wait and see how the race goes on.”

Brian Snyder / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks to supporters at his "Super Tuesday" primary election night rally in Boston, March 6, 2012.

Romney wins the most delegates, the most states, and the big prize of Ohio… But he’s still unable to pull away from his GOP competition… Why? Look no further than ideology… The good news for Romney: He increases his delegate lead… Question for Gingrich: Does he stay or does he go?... What’s next: the non-Romney-friendly states of Kansas (March 10), Alabama (March 13), and Mississippi (March 13)… Team Romney continues to enjoy an ad-spending advantage in these upcoming states, but do note that the Romney camp hasn’t spent a DIME in them… Obama lectures GOP rivals on their Iran rhetoric… And Kucinich and Schmidt lose.

*** Unable to pull away: It’s hard to imagine that someone could win the most delegates (and a MAJORITY of all available) on Super Tuesday, the most states, and -- after midnight -- the big prize of Ohio, but still come out of it bloodier and more bruised than when the day began. But that’s exactly what seemed to happen to Mitt Romney last night. Yesterday, we wrote that Super Tuesday could come down to math vs. perception. And the perception from Super Tuesday was that Romney continues to win when it matters, but that he also continues to be unable to put the GOP race away, despite enjoying almost every advantage (the money, the organization, the pro-Romney Super PAC, the fact that this is his second presidential bid, the divided Santorum-Newt vote). It was one thing for Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton to duke it out in ’08, trading victories and splitting up the delegates; it was a clash of political titans. But it’s another thing for Romney -- the always-assumed GOP front-runner -- to be unable to pull away from Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich. The story on Romney remains the same as it was six months ago: It’s difficult to see how he’s denied the nomination, but it’s also difficult how he gets there, at least as soon as he wants to. How does he land this nomination plane? How does the Romney campaign gently start bringing conservatives aboard without using the "you have no choice”/”Santorum/Gingrich can't make the math work" sledgehammer?

*** Why is Romney unable to pull away? The answer to that question continues to come down to ideology. According to the exit polls in Ohio, Santorum easily won among very conservatives (48%-30%) and overall conservatives (41%-35%), while Romney won the other ideological subgroups (somewhat conservatives, moderates/liberals). Santorum won Tea Party supporters (39%-36%), while Romney won Tea Party detractors (45%-30%). And Santorum ran up the score with evangelicals (47%-30%). Given that kind of very conservative resistance we’ve seen in other contests -- Iowa, South Carolina, Michigan, and Ohio -- it’s a tribute to Romney that he remains on track to winning the GOP presidential nomination. But it also explains why he’s unable to pull away from his under-funded and less-organized opposition.

*** The good news for Romney: He increases his delegate lead: So that’s the bad news for Romney. The good news for him is the delegate score from last night. Here are our projections how the delegates will split: Romney 219, Santorum 97, Gingrich 82, Paul 22. And overall (with those projections), it’s Romney 338, Santorum 114, Gingrich 112, and Paul 30. But if it’s only about delegates, then consider this: It’s likely that Romney won’t be able to get the necessary 1,144 needed to capture the nomination until late May or even afterwards, if Santorum and Gingrich stay in the race. And that race would continue 1) as the battleground moves next week to the non-Romney-friendly states of Alabama and Mississippi, and 2) as Santorum has begun to ramp up his criticism of Romney’s health-care law. But to demonstrate the math advantage Romney has, consider this: To get to 1,144, Santorum would need to win 62% of all REMAINING delegates; if you assume that Romney wins in his regional strongholds (New York, Connecticut etc), then Santorum needs to win in all other places at a 67% clip; and if you assume that party insider delegates (the RNC version of super delegates) break for Romney 65%-35%, then Santorum would need 71% of the remaining delegates in primaries, caucuses and conventions to get the nomination. Bottom line: The math for Santorum isn’t TECHNICALLY impossible, but it’s HIGHLY improbable.

*** Does Gingrich stay or does he go? Then there’s the question about Gingrich: Does he stay or does he go? Last night, NBC’s Andrew Rafferty notes, Santorum chief strategist John Brabender said the campaign wants the race to become a one-on-one contest, though Brabender maintained it won’t call for Gingrich to drop out. "We're never going to call on anybody to get out, but what we are calling is on Tea Party supporters and conservatives is to rally behind the only candidate that has demonstrated over and over again that he's the one who can compete against Mitt Romney," Brabender said. But a senior Gingrich aide replied, per NBC’s Kelly O’Donnell: "In turn we can make the same argument. The worst part of Santorum's analysis is he doesn't realize he is splitting the moderate vote with Romney." Yet consider this: Outside of Georgia (the one state he won), Gingrich finished third or fourth in every primary where he was on the ballot. Not a single SECOND place anywhere else -- not in Tennessee, not in Oklahoma.

*** What’s next: The GOP race now moves to Kansas (March 10); Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi (March 13); Illinois (March 20); and Louisiana (March 24). Based on past races, the only safe ground for Romney might be Illinois (and maybe Hawaii, too). Then again, Romney continues to have the ad-spending advantage in all of these states, except for Hawaii and Kansas. .

Alabama: Restore Our Future (pro-Romney $840,000), Winning Our Future (pro-Gingrich) $290,000
Hawaii: Paul $39,000
Illinois: Restore Our Future $660,000, Gingrich $16,000
Kansas: Winning Our Future $144,000
Louisiana: Restore Our Future $460,000, Winning Our Future $3,000, Gingrich $1,000
Mississippi: Restore Our Future $750,000, Winning Our Future $240,000, Santorum $4,000

*** Three notes on this ad spending: One, notice that the pro-Romney Super PAC -- but NOT the Romney campaign -- is advertising in these states. It’s yet another sign that the Romney campaign doesn’t have much money left (the FEC report on March 20 will be interesting to see. Two, where would Gingrich be without Sheldon Adelson and the Adelson-funded Super PAC. And three, no one has gotten more bang for his campaign-spending buck than Santorum.

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Gingrich holds four events in Alabama… And Santorum spends his day in Mississippi.

*** Obama lectures GOP rivals, especially Romney, about their bellicose rhetoric: In addition to Super Tuesday, the other big political event yesterday was President Obama’s White House news conference. And what struck us the most was when he lectured his GOP rivals on their rhetoric toward Iran. “Those folks don’t have a lot of responsibilities,” he said. “They’re not commander-in-chief. And when I see the casualness with which some of these folks talk about war, I’m reminded of the costs involved in war.  I’m reminded that the decision that I have to make in terms of sending our young men and women into battle, and the impacts that has on their lives, the impact it has on our national security, the impact it has on our economy. This is not a game. There’s nothing casual about it.” When can tell you that Obama was, in particular, referring to Romney and his speech at AIPAC. Here’s what Romney said, via satellite:”I will station multiple carriers and warships at Iran’s door.” The Obama White House gets particularly animated over these criticisms about Iran, and believes Romney should be held more accountable for his rhetoric. It was quite striking that Romney decided to sound not just hawkish but almost as if he'd overrule his military commanders about where to move American battleships.

*** Kucinich, Schmidt lose: Finally, it’s worth pointing out that we saw two congressional incumbents go down to defeat in Ohio last night. First, in a race due to redistricting, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) lost a primary race to Rep. (D) Marcy Kaptur (D). And get this: “Kaptur moves on to the November general election where she likely will face Samuel Joseph Wurzelbacher, better known as ‘Joe the Plumber.’” And also in Ohio, Rep. Jean Schmidt (R) lost her GOP primary against Brad Wenstrup, “a doctor who has never held political office,” the Cincy Enquirer says. We know that there will be other member-vs.-member contests as a results of redistricting, but you have to ask yourself: Is this the start of another anti-Washington year? 

Countdown to Alabama, Hawaii, and Mississippi: 6 days
Countdown to Election Day: 244 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

Charles Rex Arbogast / AP

Republican presidential candidate Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, addresses the crowd during the North Dakota caucus on Tuesday in Fargo.

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul remained defiant Tuesday night in the face of no primary wins, rallying his fervent supporters to his signature causes of civil liberties and an overhaul of the country's monetary system.

Paul gave no definitive statement of how long he'd continue his campaign. But he told supporters in Fargo, N.D., that his campaign has sent a clear message to voters that government grows endlessly, ignores personal privacy and spends too much money.

"If we set a standard of individual liberty, the rest of the world will notice," Paul said as he competed aggressively for caucus wins in three states. "It's much easier to promote our cause through peaceful deeds than through war."

Earlier Tuesday, Paul campaigned in Idaho, another caucus state, promising a smaller federal government, $1 trillion in federal spending cuts and an administration dedicated to liberty.

Paul said he chose to spend Super Tuesday in Idaho because it's one of the states where poll numbers show his campaign is strongest.

"We're going to do well and that will excite us going forward," Paul told reporters after addressing about 500 people during a noon event in this southwestern Idaho town. "I think it's a super-good opportunity for us to get votes and a chance to win the states."

About 1,200 people showed up to see Paul in northern Idaho's Sandpoint on Monday and roughly 2,000 attended an Idaho Falls event at which he appeared Monday evening.

The Texas congressman hoped for victory in at least one of the Super Tuesday caucus states: Idaho, Alaska and North Dakota. Paul apologized for being unable to take questions in Nampa and said he had to get on a plane for a campaign stop in Fargo.

The Nampa crowd applauded Paul when he panned the nation's "entitlement system," which he said bailed out big corporations better than it did average Americans.

"The difficulty and the real challenge is people don't want to cut any type of funding. This idea of the entitlement system — anybody who wants something or needs something or demands something has a right to it — that's not true," he said. "You don't have a right to other people's income. You have a right to keep your own."

Paul also drew cheers for his plan to balance the nation's finances. He said he could achieve the feat within three years by cutting the federal government and taking $1 trillion out of its budget.

One message that emerged from exit poll interviews with voters in Tuesday’s Republican primaries is that while many of them had misgivings about Mitt Romney and even though they rejected him in Tennessee, Oklahoma, North Dakota and Georgia, they also recognized that the November electorate isn’t as conservative as the GOP primary electorate.

Read: Early exit poll data point to continued faith in Romney's electability

Even some of the Republican voters who didn’t vote for Romney saw him as the candidate most likely to defeat Obama in November -- that is, if he wins the Republican nomination. As the vote count dragged on in Ohio and after his loss in the Oklahoma and Tennessee primaries, a Romney nomination seemed less than certain.

The contrast between many Republican voters’ coolness toward Romney and their view of him as a potential winner in November came through most clearly in the Tennessee exit poll data.

In Tennessee, Romney ran far behind the winner of that primary, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, among born-again Christians (lagging Santorum by 19 points) and among those who said a candidate sharing their religious beliefs mattered very much to them (35 points behind Santorum).

More than four out of ten Tennessee voters told exit poll interviewers that it mattered a great deal to them that their presidential candidate shares their religious beliefs, the highest percent seen in any state so far during the primary season. Romney is a Mormon and 75 percent of Tennessee voters were evangelical Christians.

Among those opposed to abortion, Romney ran 18 points behind Santorum in Tennessee and among lower-income voters he ran 16 points behind Santorum -- yet despite all that, some of these same people still saw Romney, not Santorum, as the man who could beat Obama in November.

Among Tennessee voters, 43 percent said Romney was the man most likely to defeat Obama; only 25 percent saw Santorum as most likely to beat Obama.

Likewise in Ohio, 50 percent of voters said Romney was most likely to beat Obama; only 24 percent said Santorum was most likely to defeat the president.

And in Georgia -- which Newt Gingrich won -- 41 percent of voters said Romney was most likely to defeat the president in November, 38 percent thought Gingrich would be most likely to win in November.

In Tennessee, Santorum did have the support of the conservative true believers: among those who said the most important candidate quality was being “a true conservative” 52 percent backed Santorum and only 7 percent voted for Romney.

But that “true believer” segment of the Tennessee electorate only amounted to 16 percent of the total; it was far outnumbered by the 38 percent who said the most important candidate quality was the ability to defeat Obama.

Although Romney has moved to the right on issues such as abortion and gay rights since he ran for the Senate in Massachusetts in 1994, he still is the strongest candidate among self-described moderate voters in the GOP primaries: among moderates in Ohio -- who were more than a quarter of the electorate -- Romney got 42 percent vs. 28 percent for Santorum.

Romney continues to have serious vulnerabilities among evangelical Christians, among the most conservative voters, and among the non-college educated.

Among voters who called themselves “very conservative” Romney trailed Santorum by 19 points in Ohio and by 30 points in Tennessee. He ran 17 points behind Santorum among evangelicals in Ohio and 19 points behind him among evangelicals in Tennessee.

But he beat Santorum by 7 points in Ohio among working women -- 42 percent to 35 percent. And Romney did much better than Santorum among voters who said it didn’t matter if a candidate shared their religious beliefs: in Ohio, Romney won 42 percent of those voters to Santorum’s 30 percent.

Romney also far outpaced Santorum among wealthier and more highly educated voters: among those with post-graduate education, for instance, Romney won 45 percent to 34 percent in Ohio.

The striking fact in Tuesday’s exit poll data remained the majority or plurality view among GOP voters of Romney as the man best able to beat Obama – yet Romney is having an exceedingly hard time winning the primaries that would clinch the nomination for him. GOP voters may see him as the best nominee, but many can’t bring themselves to vote for him.