When Rick Santorum told a Michigan crowd they had come to see him because "freedom is at stake in this election," a man in the crowd shouted a word that's almost never heard at Mitt Romney's campaign events: "Amen!"

When Romney went to Milford, Mich., to talk to tea party voters, he took a handful of pre-screened questions from event organizers. After Santorum wrapped up a 30-minute speech to several hundred tea partyers early on a Saturday in St. Clair Shores, he picked hands eagerly waving in the audience.

"I can't get out of here alive without taking a few questions," the former Pennsylvania senator said.

Day by day, event by event, Michigan's critical primary on Tuesday is crystallizing the dramatic differences between Romney, the on-again off-again GOP front-runner, and Santorum, his current top challenger for the Republican presidential nomination.

The two men are running almost neck-and-neck in this struggling Rust Belt state, but as the two campaigned just miles apart on Sunday, the voters they spoke to were as different as the messages they brought and as the campaigns they are running.

See related: Santorum bets he connects better in Romney's home state

The contrasts are both stylistic and substantive, and they illustrate why Romney, a multimillionaire business executive and a Mormon, is suddenly struggling in the presidential primary in the state where he was born and raised as he runs against Santorum, a strict Catholic who wears sweater vests and highlights his background as the senator from another suffering manufacturing state, Pennsylvania.

Standing at a podium in a nightclub on the outskirts of town, Santorum outlined a vision of American greatness driven by the workers who he says built it.

"We know what works in America. Bottom up. Bottom up has built a great country," Santorum told a crowd of about 600 on Sunday. Many were still dressed in their church clothes; others wore Detroit Red Wings jackets and camouflage hunting caps.

He spoke for nearly an hour before taking questions, the crowd following him the whole time, whistling and cheering and shouting back, running through the Declaration of Independence like a call-and-answer sports cheer.

"They are endowed by their — " Santorum started. "CREATOR!" the crowd shouted back.

When a young girl standing near the stage piped up: "You should be president!," Santorum smiled and thanked her. "Out of the mouths of babes," he said to the crowd, referencing Matthew 21:16.

And when a reporter mingled with the crowd and approached him after the event, Santorum stopped to answer a question about whether he supports raising the minimum wage along with inflation, as Romney has said he does.

"I am not in support of that. That's inflationary and doesn't make any sense," Santorum said. "It's bad policy."

A few hours later at a soaring ballroom in the Park Place Hotel downtown on Sunday night, a state representative and a congressman stalled for about 45 minutes before Romney stepped onto the stage at the front of the room, an enormous campaign sign hanging behind him.

He spoke for about 20 minutes, offering his standard campaign speech with some added focus on his Michigan roots.

"The right course for America is to believe in free people and free enterprises — and I do and I will," Romney told the crowd of about 700, some men in jackets and one with a ball cap advertising the Jack Nicklaus-designed golf courses at the nearby Grand Traverse Resort. He cited the "pioneers and innovators" who helped America thrive and said: "Their success did not make us poorer. Their success made us better off!"

Romney earned more laughter than usual for mentioning his boyhood cross-country road trips in his parents' Rambler, the audience obviously familiar with the old model of car his father retooled when he was running American Motors. The hometown crowds are more at ease with Romney than those in other states, but his interactions with voters throughout his events are shorter and much less frequent than Santorum's.

Romney barely mentioned religion, stopping only to emphasize the reference to the creator in the Declaration of Independence and citing the motto, "In God We Trust."

Romney hasn't appeared at or held a public event at a church since he announced his bid for president in June, though he has attended Sunday services — joining a Mormon congregation in West Des Moines the weekend before the Iowa caucuses, for example.

He focuses on his general economic message instead.

"If you want someone who will dramatically and fundamentally change Washington and bring you less government and more jobs, then I'm you're guy," Romney said Sunday night, a version of a line he's repeated countless times.

Then the former Massachusetts governor took pictures and signed autographs.

But he took no questions. Romney hasn't responded to questions from the national traveling press corps in 19 days, and attempts to approach him after campaign events are met with a smile — and no other response.

As Santorum and Romney enter their final day of campaigning in Michigan, they are both looking to win over the thousands of voters who have been out of work for years as their state has struggled to replace the blue collar manufacturing jobs that powered its economy for decades. Santorum is directly appealing to the Michigan's vibrant tea party movement and religious social conservatives.

In early primaries and caucuses, exit and entrance polls show Romney has done far better among higher income voters than he has with those who make less than $50,000 a year. And people who don't identify themselves as evangelical Christians backed him in much higher numbers than those who say they are evangelical.

As he looks to take on Romney, Santorum is selling himself as the conservative crusader, a deeply religious man from a blue-collar state who will go to Washington and stand fast against the cultural and economic forces that he says are encroaching on traditional families and manufacturing jobs.

"More people go to church on Sunday than go to all the professional sporting events combined in a year," he said. He dubbed his jobs plan "supply side economics for the working man."

"There are a lot of people in this country who want to use their hands and their minds together to make something," Santorum said Saturday in St. Clair Shores, where he appeared without almost no senior staff in tow and spoke from a podium that was nearly level with the crowd. "That's their vocation — that's what they were made to do, that's what they want to do, that's what they love doing. . And guess what, there's less and less chance to do that."

A man shouted in response: "No one even knows how to run a machine anymore!"

"That's right," Santorum replied.

Santorum's policies echo this philosophy. He's proposing cutting the corporate tax to 17 percent from 35 percent, and slashing corporate taxes for manufacturers to zero, a move he says will help bring back blue collar jobs. He barely mentions the labor unions that helped keep those jobs well-paying.

It's another contrast with Romney, who says Santorum is "picking winners and losers" in an economy where the vast majority of jobs are in other sectors. The former Massachusetts governor hosts many of his events at small business and local factories, where he'll often tour the facility with the company's owner, founder or CEO before speaking with a group of the company's workers — and a bank of local TV cameras.

His campaign consultants call them "messaging events."

Regardless of the outcome of Republican presidential primaries in Michigan and Arizona on Tuesday, Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum appear headed for a showdown next week in Ohio.

Both candidates plan to dash there later this week. The candidates and their allies already are spending heavily on advertising in the Buckeye State. It's one of 10 that vote a week from Tuesday, with 419 delegates to the Republican National Convention at stake.

"An awful lot of Ohioans are just tuning in to this," said Terry Casey, a veteran Republican campaign strategist in that state. "It's going to be a sprint."

Beyond Ohio, Romney was looking to contests in the West while Santorum focuses on the South.

Rival Newt Gingrich, seeking to inject momentum into his struggling bid, was working to make his stand in his former home state of Georgia and nearby Southern states that also vote on the mega-contest day of March 6. The former House speaker told reporters Sunday: "We hope to win in Georgia, we hope to do well in Oklahoma and Tennessee. We may surprise people in Idaho. We think we have a real fighting chance in Ohio."

Ron Paul also planned events in upcoming states, showing no willingness to abandon his quest to rack up enough delegates to ensure his followers have a voice at the late-summer convention and that the Republican Party which once spurned him welcomes him back into the fold.

Related: Gingrich: Georgia win 'central to the future of our campaign'

All of the divergent strategies suggest the race could go deep into March — if not beyond — without giving any of the candidates a significant edge.

It's a scenario that all the candidates are anticipating.

"Look, this is going to be a long race, and there's going to be some ups and downs," Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator, said Sunday on ABC's "This Week."

On "Fox News Sunday," Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, chimed in with: "How long the process goes on, I think it's hard to predict."

Gingrich argued that a drawn-out campaign would give states like California, which holds its primary June 5, a large role in the nominating contest.

Heading into Tuesday's contests, Romney leads in the race to amass the most delegates with 123. Santorum has 72, while Gingrich and Paul have 32 and 19, respectively. The totals include endorsements from Republican National Committee members who will automatically attend the party's national convention and can support any candidate they choose.

A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination.

Both Arizona and Michigan each lost half their delegates for holding contests before March 6.

Whoever wins Arizona, where polls show Romney with a lead, will get all 29 of the state's delegates. But Michigan will divide its 30 delegates by giving 2 to the winner of each of the 14 congressional districts in the state. The final 2 delegates are awarded in proportion to the statewide vote, probably to the top two candidates, if both get more than 25 percent of the vote.

Washington's caucuses are Saturday, when 40 delegates are at stake, followed by Super Tuesday contests in Alaska (24), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (38), North Dakota (28), Oklahoma (40), Ohio (63), Tennessee (55), Vermont (17) and Virginia (46). Also, Wyoming Republicans will hold county conventions from March 6 through March 10, with 12 delegates up for grabs.

After Tuesday, no state awards all of its delegates to the one candidate who wins the popular vote, giving every candidate a chance to add to their totals.

With Gingrich the home-state favorite in Georgia, the state offering the most delegates on Super Tuesday, Romney and Santorum were turning to Ohio, the state with the second-biggest Super Tuesday cache.

Romney was expected to head straight there from Michigan on Wednesday. Santorum wasn't even waiting until the votes were counted and planned to go to nearby Toledo on Tuesday.

Underscoring the fight already being waged in Ohio, it's the only upcoming state where Romney and Santorum and allied super political action committees were all spending money on television advertising, according to records of advertising expenditures provided to The Associated Press. Romney's well-funded campaign was outspending Santorum nearly three to one, while the group that supports Romney, Restore Our Future, also was trouncing the pro-Santorum Red, White and Blue Fund.

The race in Ohio is likely to mirror that of Michigan, another Rust Belt state where the economy is the main issue. Romney and Santorum have spent the past week squaring off over who is more conservative.

The outcome of the races in Arizona, where Romney leads in polls, and Michigan, where surveys show a closer race, will dictate how the two compete for the votes of Ohio Republicans.

From that state, Romney and Santorum were headed to different areas of the country to try to pick up delegates.

Romney planned a Thursday trip to North Dakota before bolting to a fundraiser in the Seattle area. His Western swing would also put him within range of Idaho, should he choose to campaign there.

Santorum, meanwhile, was eyeing the South. He's advertising in Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee, where he is counting on his social conservative credentials appealing to Republicans in the Bible Belt.

While Romney has refrained from running ads in those states, the pro-Romney Restore Our Future is heavily invested in advertising attacking Santorum in all three states, as well as in Mississippi and Alabama, other Super Tuesday states. The so-called "super PAC" was spending more money on advertising than any other entity in March 6 states.

AP Photo/Evan Vucci

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich speaks at Rock Springs Baptist Church on Sunday, Feb. 26 in Milner, Ga.

MILNER, Ga. -- With just nine days to go until Super Tuesday, Newt Gingrich says he is staking the future of his presidential campaign on a win in his home state.
 
“It’s central to the future of our campaign and we’re going to do everything we can to win here,” Gingrich told reporters about a win in Georgia on March 6th.
 
Although the former House Speaker feels confident he can win the Peach State, he remains just cautiously optimistic.
 
“You can never be comfortable until it’s over,” Gingrich, who is leading in some polls in Georgia, said before speaking at Rock Springs Baptist Church's ‘God and Country Rally. “You can’t be comfortable when you have the Romney Super Pac willing to run things that are totally false and willing to spend million and millions of dollars trying to defeat you.”
 
But Georgia isn’t the only state the former house speaker believes he can perform well in.
 
“We hope to do very well in Oklahoma and Tennessee. We may surprise people in Idaho. We think we have a real fighting chance in Ohio,” Gingrich said Sunday evening. “We will have to wait and see how the day works out but I think it may be better than people expect.”
 
Prior to the 11 contests that take place on the first Tuesday in March, however, voters in Michigan and Arizona -- two states Gingrich hasn’t put forth much effort in -- will take to the polls. The Speaker did not campaign in Michigan at all and only held one public event in Arizona after last week’s presidential debate there. The Gingrich campaign seems to have basically conceded the last two states to vote in February to Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum.
 
“I think Gov. Romney has to carry Michigan, I think he has an enormous amount at stake,” Gingrich claimed, but added later that he can still go to the Republican Convention even if Romney doesn’t withdraw from the race at some point.
 
“Of course we can go to Tampa with Mitt in the race,” the Speaker said. “You could have all four of us at Tampa. You could even have number five and six if somebody gets excited and jumps in."
 
Gingrich will spend the majority of his time before Super Tuesday in the state of Georgia.

Scott Olson / Getty Images

TROY, MI - Republican presidential candidate, former U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum speaks at the Americans for Prosperity Presidential Forum during a campaign stop on February 25, 2012 in Troy, Michigan.

TROY, Mich. – If Mitt Romney is counting on winning Michigan’s primary because he’s from the state, Rick Santorum is betting he’ll win here by better connecting with the state’s voters.

The former Pennsylvania senator has so far managed to battle equally with Romney in the state where the former Massachusetts governor was raised. Romney won the primary here in 2008, and had been expected to easily win again this year before Santorum upset Romney in a trio of mid-February contests.

And campaigning in the state, Santorum’s strategy has become clear. He’s courting Michigan’s broad, middle class electorate, a group that’s been affected strongly by the economic downturn, by focusing on themes of reviving manufacturing, bringing down energy prices, and crafting policies to encourage families.

RELATED: Romney faces high expectations in Michigan

“I care about the very poor,” Santorum said at a Friday night rally in Lincoln Park, a blue collar community downriver from the site of Ford’s famed River Rouge plant. “I’m a 100 percenter, not 99 versus 1.”

Said Len Marshick of Belleville, Mich.: “He holds the same values we do.”

Santorum is a candidate who cut his political teeth in Pennsylvania by being able to win over broad swaths of blue collar workers in that state’s most populous corners. He eked out victory in Iowa by courting those voters and the state’s social conservatives, and relied on a similar recipe to conjure upsets of Mitt Romney in Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri.

“I think he’s more work, work, work – a family type of person,” said Frank Lughermo, an undecided voter who grew up in southwest Detroit before leaving the city for the suburbs after the 1960s riots. “He can relate to people in industry.”

Santorum is courting in Michigan the very voters with whom Romney has struggled to connect: the working class and social conservatives – the famous “Regan Democrats” who make up a large segment of the electorate here. Romney has fared better with wealthier voters, according to exit polls of preceding primaries, while the margins are closer among the less well-heeled.

Santorum’s effort to connect with the middle class was maybe most clear in a quip Santorum made Saturday morning before a group of conservative activists, which won him a standing ovation.

“President Obama once said he wants everybody in America to go to college,” he said. “What a snob!”

NBC Battleground Map favors Obama

Santorum’s campaigned in the state with a “Made in America” slogan more reminiscent of a union imprint than a Republican presidential campaign. He assailed Romney for having opposed the 2009 bailouts of GM and Chrysler, while, within the same time frame, supporting the Wall Street bailout.

“If you’re going to bail out one, and help your friends on Wall Street … why pick one, and not the other?” he asked, conceding in the meanwhile his own opposition to both.

But Santorum still faces challenges in driving that message home, namely his less robust fundraising and organizational infrastructure compared to Romney.

That deficit was on display Friday night, when Santorum arrived – late – in snowy conditions to address a Knights of Columbus hall that was less than half full to hear Santorum deliver a “major” address about his first 100 days in office.

Santorum laid out a 10-point plan to specify his agenda, though the specific points were sometimes lost in an especially long-winded speech, a hallmark of Santorum’s campaign style.

“Nobody is a perfect candidate, but he’s probably the most overall consistent – probably has the least ups and downs,” said Dan Fuller, an engineer for a material supplier in the auto industry.

By contrast, Romney’s campaign is more scripted – almost to a fault, judging by the cavernous backdrop for his economic address at Ford Field, remarks at which included a minor gaffe about his wife, Ann, owning two Cadillacs (a departure from prepared remarks).

First Read: Romney lays out vision in mostly empty stadium

Romney’s speeches are peppered with references to his upbringing in Michigan, a reminder to voters that his father, George, served here as governor.

Betty Ridan, of Bloomfield Hills, Mich., said at Saturday’s conference that she was a longtime Romney supporter precisely because of his roots in the state. But she also described Santorum’s speech as “inspiring,” and admitted the former Pennsylvania senator would have been her second choice.

What victory may mean for Santorum is a gut sense – a feeling by Michiganders that, for all of his warts, Santorum is more representative of their needs and issues than any of the other candidates.

“You see it too often where people vote because the media tells them that this is the guy that looks like the president,” said Sister Maria of the Dominican Sisters of Mary, Mother of the Eucharist. About a dozen of the sisters, wearing full habits, attended the Friday speech. “That doesn’t make sense to me.”

Gerald Herbert / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, talks to patrons at The Mitt Restaurant during a campaign stop in Mount Clemens, Mich., Friday, Feb. 24, 2012.

DETROIT – For Mitt Romney, the Michigan Republican primary is a matter of expectations.

It’s about waging a campaign against an incumbent president who hasn’t lived up to expectations. It’s about managing expectations for just how grand of a venue would play host to a major economic speech.

And most fundamentally, it’s about meeting and surpassing expectations about how strongly he should perform in Tuesday’s crucial primary being held in a state where Romney was born and raised.

The former Massachusetts governor’s campaign has put all of its chips on the Great Lakes State, hoping it serves Romney the same way primaries in New Hampshire and Florida had done.

He won each of those convincingly, and at a moment of peril for his candidacy. Romney’s victories tamped down dissatisfaction with his candidacy, and helped him lay claim again to being the GOP campaign’s frontrunner.

Michigan isn’t likely to give Romney such a decisive imprimatur. His campaign has deluged the state with advertising and aggressive messaging, just as it had done in New Hampshire and Florida to help dismiss Romney’s challengers at the time.

But Rick Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator who upset Romney in a trio of nominating contests earlier this month, is hanging around with Romney in the polls. Santorum threatens to upend expectations – namely, that Romney would be able to win here comfortably, just as he had done in 2008.

Scott Olson / Getty Images

Members of the Detroit Economic club gather to hear a speech by Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney during a luncheon at Ford Field on Feb. 24, 2012 in Detroit, Michigan.

“I think he’s a strong candidate, no doubt about it. But it’s not going to be handed to him on a silver platter,” said Glory Aiken, an Oakland County Republican deciding between the two candidates.

“There’s a lot of high emotion in this election. There are a lot of people in this country who don’t think we’re heading in the right direction, and that’s powerful stuff,” she said at a Romney speech to Tea Party members Thursday night in Milford, Mich.

Romney makes frequent mention of upbringing in Michigan during his stump speech. He talks about having been born in Harper Hospital, growing up around Woodward and 7 Mile Road, and, yes, autos.

Whether that connection is enough to propel Romney to victory is a bigger question. Fifty-seven percent of likely Republican primary voters said in a Detroit Free Press/WXYZ poll released this week that they don’t view Romney as a Michigander. Those voters break for Santorum said Bernie Porn, the EPIC-MRA pollster who conducted the survey.

Romney is struggling in particular with conservatives in the state, who favor Santorum in a familiar retread of a narrative in previous primaries.

“The perception of him as a moderate is strong with me,” said Tom Petiprin of Lapeer, Mich. “When Johnny McCain endorsed him – that was almost the kiss of death for my vote. But I’m trying to be more open minded. “

The crowd Thursday evening was composed of more of the white, middle-class voters Romney will need on Tuesday (and for which Santorum is aggressively competing.)

The audience was quite different on Friday at a cavernous Ford Field, at a speech hosted by the Detroit Economic Club, right around the 30-yard-line where the Lions play in the fall. Romney made reference to the well-heeled audience by referencing toward them during a portion of his tax speech talking about limiting deductions for high-income Americans.

The speech was moved here after a record sellout of tickets for the event, but members of the economic club were unable to find an intermediate venue. The speech was slated to be the former unveiling of Romney’s tax plan, though he outlined most of it earlier in the week. Applause for it died in the cavernous, mostly empty stadium.

He headlined the speech by noting that Obama had failed to meet expectations.

“That deep confidence in a better tomorrow is the basic promise of America. But today, that promise is being threatened by a faltering economy and, in my view, a failed president,” he said.

And later, setting expectations for himself, responding to a question about which Republican had the best chance of beating Obama: “I not only think I have the best chance, I think I have the only chance.”

To accomplish that, Romney is relying on a similar brew of voters that he had courted in New Hampshire and Florida: those who believe he is, indeed, the best candidate to unseat the Democratic president.

“I probably will give him my vote, because I think he’s the strongest to beat Obama,” said Kathy Kubik, of Brighton, Mich. “The debate last night, it might have helped.”

Michael Woods, also of Brighton, agreed: “I just feel that not only from a conservative standpoint but once he gets the nod and gets in the general election, the election is going to be won among independent voters. Of the four candidates we have left here, to me, personally, I think Mr. Romney meshes well into both the conservative side and the independent side.”

But it’s been self-inflicted wounds by Romney that have most compromised his status as the most electable Republican.

Media were quick to note that, in an aside about American cars, Romney noted that his wife, Ann, drives a Cadillac – “a couple of them, actually.”

And the tens of thousands of empty seats in the backdrop invited comparisons to instances when Obama filled stadiums with exuberant audiences in his 2008 Democratic convention speech.

But with four days until the primary, Romney still has his chance with voters like Ingrid Rowe, an undecided Republican from the suburban Detroit area. She said she had hoped to hear “something convincing – something that has not been part of the talking points so far” from Romney.

“I am aware of the political maneuvering that goes on, and I wanted to get a feel,” she said.

In an election year dominated by battles over health care mandates, tax rates, and rising gasoline prices, it’s the mechanics of voting – and who’ll get to vote in November – that’s getting full-time attention from state legislators, election lawyers, and judges.

In the latest example, the Virginia state Senate is headed for a vote Friday on a new voter identification requirement – one more indication that the voter ID controversy will keep boiling in legislatures and in the courts right up to Election Day.

These new voter ID laws are being proposed almost exclusively by Republican legislators and governors in states throughout the nation, spawning both litigation and angry rhetoric from Democrats.

“All of a sudden after the 2008 election, these (voter ID laws) miraculously appear,” said Rep. Frederica Wilson, D- Fla. at a recent anti-voter ID event at the Capitol. “Why? Because we have a black president in the White House and it is to stop all of the people of color from … coming out to vote, because they (the proponents of voter ID laws) know who they are targeting …"

Here’s the status of some recently enacted voter ID laws and states where such laws might be considered this year:

Enacted but blocked
South Carolina: Last December, the Justice Department denied approval of the state’s voter ID law requiring voters to present photo identification that Gov. Nikki Haley had signed in May. Under Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, South Carolina is one of nine states that must seek approval, or “pre-clearance,” from the Justice Department or a federal court in Washington, D.C., in order to make any change in voting procedure.

State Attorney General Alan Wilson brought suit in federal court, arguing that the requirements “are at most a temporary inconvenience” to some voters. The state contended that its law was nearly identical to one enacted by Indiana and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2008. Therefore barring South Carolina from doing what Indiana had done would “raise serious constitutional concerns” about whether Section 5 “violates South Carolina’s right to equal sovereignty.”

In a separate but related case with big implications for voter ID laws, Shelby County, Ala., is fighting in the federal appeals court in Washington to have Section 5 of VRA struck down as unconstitutional. The appeals court heard oral arguments on Jan. 19 and a ruling is likely in the next several weeks.  The Shelby County case will likely end up before the Supreme Court and if the justices were to strike down Section 5, the Justice Department would no longer be able to pre-emptively block changes in voting laws.  The department would still be able to use another Section of the VRA to challenge voting laws that have a racially discriminatory impact.

Enacted but likely to be blocked
Texas: State Attorney General Greg Abbott filed a suit last month in federal court, asking that Texas be permitted this year to use the photo ID law Gov. Rick Perry signed last spring.

Under Section 5 of the VRA, the Justice Department is now considering Texas’s law, having asked for additional information from the state on the race and ethnicity of Texas voters and drivers. The department must give its response to the Texas law by March 12.

In his filing, Abbott said Texas did not have the racial and ethnic data the Justice Department wanted. “Indeed, the very reason Texas refuses to maintain racial and ethnic data on its list of registered voters is to facilitate a colorblind electoral process,” he said.

Even in the unlikely event the Justice Department were to approve the Texas law, opponents of the law contend that there would be problems implementing it.

“The state is not ready to allow citizens the ability to obtain this kind of voter ID,” said Rep. Charlie Gonzales, D- Texas. “It goes way beyond just going to the Department of Public Safety and standing in line. You still have to have your birth certificate; if you’re divorced and your name is different you have to get a certified copy of your divorce decree. There are so many hoops to jump through.”

Enacted but may be blocked
Laws similar to those in South Carolina and Texas have passed in several states and are likely to be opposed by the Justice Department over the same concerns.

Alabama:  Another Section 5 state, Alabama passed a voter ID law which doesn’t take effect until 2014.

Mississippi:  Voters last November approved a ballot initiative to create a photo ID requirement. But the legislature must provide funding to implement the law and the state must receive Justice Department approval since Mississippi is a Section 5 state.

Wisconsin: On Tuesday Wisconsin conducted its first elections under the voter ID law that Republican Gov. Scott Walker signed last year.  Wisconsin is not covered by Section 5 of the VRA but challenges have already been launched. On Thursday civil rights groups and a labor union coalition filed a suit against the law arguing that it discriminates against black and Latino voters. The American Civil Liberties Union has also filed a suit seeking to block enforcement of the law. One argument ACLU makes is that the cost of obtaining a copy of a birth certificate ($20 in Wisconsin, more in other states) in order to get a state ID card would be “a severe financial burden” for some people, a burden that violates the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.

The voting in municipal and county primary elections in Wisconsin went smoothly, according to the Associated Press. Walker commented on his Twitter account: “1st election w/photo ID required & it seems to have run well. Proof that common sense still works.”

But Rep. Gwen Moore, D- Wisc., a longtime political foe of Walker, alleges the governor "clearly has had a goal for many, many years to disenfranchise people of color."

She also contended that the law would hurt President Barack Obama’s chances to win the state in November, adding, “This is strictly designed to disenfranchise people who would otherwise vote for Democrats."

Asked to comment on Moore’s remarks, Walker’s spokesman Cullen Werwie said, “Requiring photo identification to vote is common sense – we require it to get a library card, cold medicine, and public assistance.  Gov. Walker will continue to implement common sense reforms that protect the electoral process and increases citizens’ confidence in the results of our elections.” 

May be enacted this year
Virginia:  The state Senate is likely to vote Friday on a bill that would require a voter to present some form of identification but would allow him or her to use an employee identification card containing a photograph of the voter, or a copy of a current utility bill, bank statement, or paycheck that shows the name and address of the voter. As a VRA Section 5-covered state, Virginia would need to gets its law cleared by the Justice Department.

Pennsylvania:  The Pennsylvania House passed a voter ID bill last year. Both Republican and Democratic sources say that there will be a renewed push for voter ID to pass in the state Senate, where the GOP has a 30 to 20 majority, and to be sent on to Republican Gov. Tom Corbett for his signature in the next couple of months. Corbett has said he supports a voter ID law.

Minnesota: A Minnesota state senate committee has approved a proposed amendment to the state constitution to require photo ID for voting, but it has yet to be approved by the full state senate and the state House. Last year, Gov. Mark Dayton, a Democrat, vetoed a voter ID bill which had been passed by the Republican-majority state legislature. 

Missouri: On the November ballot is a proposed amendment to the state constitution which would allow for the legislature to impose a photo ID requirement. Republican state Sen. Bill Stouffer, the sponsor of that measure, predicts it will pass with 75 percent or more of the vote. The legislature last year passed a photo ID bill which Democratic Gov.  Jay Nixon vetoed.

Recently enacted
Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Kansas all enacted photo ID laws last year. None has yet been enjoined or struck down.  None of those states are covered by Section 5 of the VRA.

Not likely to be enacted this year
Iowa: The state’s Republican Secretary of State Matt Schultz has proposed a photo identification law but state Senate Majority Leader Mike Gronstal opposes the idea.

Ohio: The Ohio House passed a photo ID bill last year but the Senate didn’t act on it. The prospects do not look good for passing a bill this year, said Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, a Republican.

He said the photo ID bill last year “polarized people over the whole concept of election reform and modernization. The photo ID bill was much more ‘nuclear,’” he said, than another bill, which he supported, to shorten and standardize the early voting period in every country in the state.  “Once it (the photo ID bill) came on the scene, the common-sense conversations stopped and … it was really hard to build consensus around thoughtful reforms,” Husted said. 

Pegged to President Obama's fundraiser yesterday with the NBA's Vince Carter, TheGrio.com's Perry Bacon Jr. notes how NBA players are strongly supporting the president and becoming more politically active.

Barack Obama is collecting major fundraising support from a small, influential group never truly tapped before by a presidential candidate: the National Basketball Association.

The Obama fundraiser held Thursday night at the Orlando home of the Dallas Mavericks Vince Carter was only the latest example of the strong backing the president is getting from former and current NBA players. Chicago Bulls star and league MVP Derrick Rose spoke at one of the events kicking off Obama's reelection campaign last spring. Former New York Knicks star Alan Houston also hosted a fundraiser.

A long list of players that included Kevin Durant (Oklahoma City), Chris Paul (Los Angeles Clippers) and Carmelo Anthony (New York) committed to play in an "Obama Classic" exhibition game last December that would serve as a campaign fundraiser. It was postponed amid the lockout but still supposed to happen this summer. Obama supporters will pay $200 for the lowest-priced seats, $5,000 to sit courtside.

The embrace by the players is not surprising; Obama is an avowed hoops fan and perhaps the most NBA-versed president in history. (Other presidents, including Bill Clinton, were big college basketball fans) NBA players are overwhelming African-American, and blacks are Obama's most devoted supporters.

At the same time, it's a new role for NBA players. Most of them speak little about politics. And it's a marked contrast from the most famous player of the previous generation of the NBA, Michael Jordan, who in 1990 refused to endorse Harvey Gantt, a black Democrat in North Carolina running for the U.S Senate.

Arlen Specter says he never had a conversation with Rick Santorum about supporting President George W. Bush’s Supreme Court nominations in exchange for the presidential candidate's backing in a tough 2004 re-election primary campaign.

Specter called assertions by Santorum that such an agreement had been struck “flatly not true.” 

In this week’s GOP debate, Santorum was put on the defensive about his past support for Specter, a former Republican senator from Pennsylvania who was viewed with suspicion by conservatives on many issues, particularly for his support of abortion rights. 

Santorum said that he spoke with Specter and received his assurance that, as the incoming chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, Specter would support Bush’s nominees.

“Arlen Specter was a senator who was going to be the chairman of the Judiciary Committee at a time when the most important issue that was coming up in the next session of Congress was two to three Supreme Court nominees,” Santorum said.  “We had a conversation, he asked me to support him.  I said, ‘will you support the president’s nominees?’  We had a 51-49 majority in the Senate.  He said ‘I’ll support the president’s nominees as chairman.’”

In an interview on MSNBC, Specter disputed that account.  “That is flatly not true.  We never had any such conversation.  It would be improper to make a commitment on a vote before I knew who the nominee was and whether I thought the nominee was qualified.”

Saul Loeb / AFP - Getty Images

President Barack Obama speaks at the University of Miami in Florida on Feb. 23, 2012.

Unveiling NBC’s newest 2012 battleground map… Romney gives his big economic speech in Detroit at 12:15 pm ET… Charlie Cook and the emerging C.W. on Romney… Questions we have about that new pro-Romney Super PAC ad… Gingrich criticizes Obama’s apology for the Quran burning… And Dems to Obama: “Don’t say ‘America is back’”

*** NBC’s new battleground map: Much has changed since we last ran our NBC presidential battleground map back in early November. (Has it REALLY been that long?) The economy and labor market have improved; President Obama’s approval numbers have risen after his debt-ceiling blues; and the Republican primary contest has turned into a knock-down, drag-out fight. And that explains why our Electoral College scorecard has gone from 196 D vs. 195 R (with 147 toss-up electoral votes) back in November, to 227 D vs. 197 R with (114 toss-up). The big changes: We’ve moved Michigan and Wisconsin from toss-up to Lean Dem, reflecting Obama’s improved strength in both states; we’ve moved New Hampshire from Lean GOP to Toss-up; and we’ve moved Iowa from Toss-up to Lean GOP. The map and the changes on it are based on the public and private polling we’ve seen, as well as our conversations with operatives studying the battlegrounds. Again, we do not make our judgments SOLELY on public polling or based on poll averages.

Solid Dem (no chance at flip): DC, DE, HI, ME (3 EVs) MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (70 electoral votes)
Likely Dem (takes a landslide to flip): CA, CT, IL, WA (94)
Lean Dem: ME (1 EV) MN, NJ, NM, OR, MI, WI (63)
Toss-up: CO, FL, NV, NC, OH, PA, VA, NH (114)
Lean GOP: AZ, GA, IA, MO, (43)
Likely GOP (takes a landslide to flip): AL, AR, IN, LA, MS, MT, NE (1 EV), ND, SC, SD, TX (97)
Solid GOP (no chance at flip): AK, ID, KS, KY, NE (4 EVs) OK, TN, UT, WV, WY (57)

(Editor's Note: We accidentally put New Mexico in toss-up when we intended to put it in Lean D; that brings it to 227 D, 197, 114 toss. And the post now reflects that.)

*** Breaking down our moves: As we mentioned above, the moves of Wisconsin and Michigan are due to the president’s improved standing, but they also reflect the GOP’s struggles in both states and how Mitt Romney, in particular, appears to be unable to connect very well to Obama’s weakest swing voting group: working-class whites. And until Romney fixes that, those states may be unattainable. As for Iowa, Democratic operatives acknowledge the very LONG Republican campaign in Iowa may have taken a toll on the president. Remember, of all the primary states, it’s the one where candidates truly camped out. We saw a similar issue in New Hampshire, though that’s changed and it appears due to the Republican Party’s shift to the right on social issues during the campaign. By the way, you’ll notice we’ve split Maine. The new congressional map created the most Republican district in that state in quite some time. The president is still favored, but it won’t be a cakewalk.

*** Romney’s big economic speech: Four days until Michigan’s crucial GOP primary, and the big political event today is Mitt Romney’s economic speech at Ford Field in Detroit at 12:15 pm ET. Romney has already rolled out a big portion of it -- the lowered income-tax rates. And the consensus from conservative opinion elites: The plan is better than what it was (which kind of sums up Romney’s candidacy to date). Meanwhile, Democrats and the United Auto Workers are countering Romney’s speech today by holding a rally where they will use American-made cars from a nearby parking garage to spell out: “Romney: Let Detroit Go Bankrupt.” And Steven Rattner, who was the lead adviser of the Obama administration’s auto task force, writes a New York Times op-ed taking Romney to task for his opposition to the auto bailout

*** The emerging C.W. on Romney: And don’t miss Charlie Cook’s latest column in National Journal, which sums up some of the emerging C.W. about the state of Romney’s campaign (for the primary and general): “My assumption was that Romney would be the nominee and would make a good run. Now, I have begun to doubt both propositions. His odds of winning the nomination are growing longer. And even if he does, he has twisted and turned himself into a human pretzel. I’m not sure how electable he is. The alternatives, however, seem even less so.”

*** On that new Romney Super PAC ad: Yesterday, much was made -- including by us -- on the new Romney Super PAC TV ad (which describes how Romney worked to find a colleague’s missing daughter) that is nearly identical to one the Romney campaign aired in 2007. But we have some questions that go beyond the blurring line between Super PACs and the campaigns they’re supporting. One, why is the Super PAC running a positive ad? You run positive ads because either A) you’re in good shape or B) your negatives are sky-high. (We bet the latter.) Two, why hasn’t the campaign run a spot like this, and why haven’t we heard more about this rescue story from the candidate? And three, why is the Super PAC -- usually a dispenser of negative ads -- airing this positive bio ad? Does it say anything about the state of the Romney campaign’s war chest?

*** Gingrich criticizes Obama’s apology for Quran burning: In Washington state yesterday, Newt Gingrich criticized the Obama administration for apologizing to Afghan leaders after Qurans were burned at a military base, NBC’s Alex Moe reported. “The president apologized for the burning, but I haven't seen the president demand that the government of Afghanistan apologize for the killing of two young Americans,” Gingrich told a crowd of roughly 500. The Afghans, Gingrich believes, "do not deserve the apology of the United States” after an Afghan soldier shot two American troops at a protest that followed the desecration of the holy books. Later when campaigning in Idaho, Gingrich got this eyebrow-raising question from a voter: “The way I got it figured, and I'm kind of sick but - we had our hippie, which turned out to be a pedophile. OK? My gosh, just 19. Now we got our disco-dancing cokehead. It's time for my generation, and people are pissed off because of affirmative action, blah, blah blah.  Are you willing to get in there and raise some serious Hell and straighten things up?” Gingrich’s answer: "Well as Harry Truman said - somebody yelled at him at one point 'Give em hell Harry.' And he said 'I just tell the truth and it feels like Hell.'”

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Santorum campaigns in Oklahoma and then stops by Michigan… Romney holds two events in the Wolverine State, including his big economic speech in Detroit… And Gingrich stumps in Washington, rallying in Olympia, Federal Way, and Everett.

*** Dems to Obama: “Don’t say ‘America is back’”: Finally, Democrats Stan Greenberg and James Carville produced a polling/focus group memo, and this part of it caught our attention: Obama’s declaration from his State of the Union that “America is back” doesn’t test well. “Claiming that ‘America is back’ is by far the weakest operative message and produces disastrous results. It is weaker than even the weakest Republican message and is 10 points weaker in intensity than either Republican message… Less than a quarter of independents say this message would make them more likely to support the President and no independents said that it would make them much more likely to support him.” 

Countdown to Arizona and Michigan primaries: 4 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 11 days
Countdown to Election Day: 256 days

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The last of the emails that the state of Alaska could recover from Sarah Palin's brief term as governor were released on Thursday.

Editor's note: Here's a link to msnbc.com's previous coverage of a release of Sarah Palin's public records, and our database where you can read those public documents. The Associated Press was apparently the only news organization to be notified by the state that new records were available. Here is the AP's report. Others that had requested them said they had not been informed of the release. They include Mother Jones magazine (which blogged about the odd release), CNN, The Washington Post, ABC News, and the Republican political activist Andrée McLeod, who said Thursday, "The culture of corruption continues unabated."

By Becky Bohrer
The Associated Press

JUNEAU, Alaska—In the final months before she resigned as Alaska's governor, Sarah Palin displayed growing frustration over deteriorating relationships with state lawmakers and their perceived efforts to "lame duck" her administration, along with outrage over ethics complaints that she felt frivolously targeted her and prompted her to write: "I can't take it anymore."

The details are included in more than 17,000 records released Thursday by state officials -- nearly 3 1/2 years after citizens and news organizations, including The Associated Press, first requested Palin's emails.

By the spring of 2009, the emails show, Palin was regularly butting heads with lawmakers of both parties over her absences from the Capitol and over her picks for vacancies in the state Senate and her own cabinet. The emails she sent to staff illustrate Palin's growing suspicion that those legislators were seeking to undermine her administration by harping on how often she was away from Juneau, the state capitol.

She asked her aides to tally how many days she was out of Alaska in 2008. The staff came up with 94 days, but 10 less if you count travel days when she was in the state part of the day, The absences included all of October and most of September while she was on the campaign trail as the GOP vice presidential candidate.

"It's unacceptable, and there must be push back on their attempts to lame duck this administration," Palin wrote to her top aides on April 9. "That's only going to get worse as they try to pull more bs and capitalize on me being out of the capitol building for 36 hours," she wrote aides.

Palin also asked her aides to see if they could hold certain legislators' "feet to the fire" and hold votes on her nominees. She wrote words of encouragement to Wayne Anthony Ross, her nominee for attorney general, telling him to "stay strong."

"Those who want to turn this into a kangaroo court will soon see you confirmed as Alaska's AG," Palin wrote.

Ross was not confirmed, the first ever cabinet level candidate rejected by the Alaska Legislature. Palin traveled to an anti-abortion rally in Indiana the day he was defeated.

Tim Crawford, treasurer of Sarah Palin's political action committee, encouraged everyone to read the emails. "They show a governor hard at work for her state," he said.

The emails are the last of her emails from her time as governor, according to Alaska state officials. Citizens and news organizations, including the AP, first requested Palin's emails in September 2008, as part of her vetting as the Republican vice presidential nominee. The state released a batch of the emails last June, a lag of nearly three years that was attributed to the sheer volume of the records and the flood of requests stemming from Palin's tenure.

The 24,199 pages of emails that were released last year left off in September 2008. When it became clear that the June release would not include all the emails from Palin's tenure last June, requests were then made for the remaining emails. Thursday's release includes 17,736 records, or 34,820 pages, generally spanning from October 2008 until Palin's resignation, in July 2009. Of those, 13,791 records were released without redactions, according to the governor's office. Another 965 documents were withheld.

Several media organizations, including msnbc.com, said they were not informed of Thursday's release.

Sharon Leighow, a spokeswoman for the current governor, Sean Parnell, said she was looking into why msnbc.com was not on the list.

Palin's frustration over a series of ethics complaints filed against her, one of the issues she cited when stepping down, emerges in a series of e-mails on March 24, 2009.

"These are the things that waste my time and money, and the state's time and money," she wrote to then-Lt. Gov. Parnell.

In an April 2009 email, she commiserated over a story indicating another ethics complaint was to be filed: "Unflippinbelievable... I'm sending this because you can relate to the bullcrap continuation of the hell these people put the family through," she wrote to Ivy Frye, an aide during the first part of her term, and to Frank Bailey.

Later that day, in an email to her husband and two top aides, on the issue, she said: "I can't take it anymore."

The first batch of emails released last June, before she announced she would not run for president, showed that Palin was angling for the vice presidential slot months before John McCain picked her to be his running mate. Those records produced no bombshells, while painting a picture of an image-conscious, driven leader, struggling with the gossip about her family and marriage, involved in the day-to-day duties of running the state and keeping tabs on the signature issues of her administration.

Copyright 2011 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.

Gerald Herbert / AP

Mitt Romney speaks at a town hall meeting at Eagle Manufacturing Corporation in Shelby Township, Mich., Tuesday, Mich., Feb. 21, 2012.

ROSEVILLE, MI -- Bringing the state's emerging status as a crucial contest for the Republican presidential race into stark relief, the campaigns of Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum bombarded Michigan with new ads on Thursday -- and President Barack Obama's campaign got in on the act, too.

Television and radio ads are blanketing the Great Lakes State ahead of its pivotal Tuesday primary, which has been transformed into a proxy battle for momentum in the race for the GOP nomination.

Santorum's campaign announced a new TV ad, "Say What," which seizes on past comments by Romney that frame the former Massachusetts governor as a liberal, or at least a conservative of convenience.

It's just part of an effort by Santorum to parry the millions spent by Romney and a supportive super PAC to avoid an embarrassing defeat in a state where Romney was raised, and his father served as governor.

Michigan radio listeners on Thursday might have heard, for instance, advertisements featuring audio of Santorum defending earmarks -- a congressional privilege which conservatives find distasteful -- and Romney boasting of his desire to cut spending.

The offensive is part of an all-out effort by Romney to ensure victory here, an outcome which an adviser to Romney's campaign guaranteed Wednesday evening following a debate in Arizona.

"We're going to win Michigan," strategist Stuart Stevens told reporters following the debate.

To that end, Romney returns here on Thursday evening, where he'll rally with Tea Party voters. He's set to deliver a major economic speech Friday morning at Ford Field, the home of the Detroit Lions. But a minor snowstorm forecast for overnight could put a damper on the enthusiastic crowds here.

First Thoughts: About last night's debate

"What I’m hearing right now is that it’s pretty close to the national polls," said Republican State Sen. Ken Goike, who represents a district in the center of Macomb County. "I think Santorum is leading in my district, but not by much."

If the national polls are tight, so are the ones in Michigan. An NBC News/Marist poll released Wednesday morning found Romney leading Santorum, 37 percent to 35 percent. A Detroit Free Press/WXYZ poll released that evening pegged Santorum as the campaign's leader, 37 percent to 34 percent.

The Romney campaign might be buoyed by a new endorsement Thursday morning from the Detroit Free Press, which accompanies similar backing from the city's other major paper, The Detroit News. Santorum's debate performance in Arizona has also faced criticism for mangled answers that highlighted Romney's criticism of Santorum's career in Washington.

But apparently discontent to allow the fight in Michigan play out on its own, Obama's campaign weighed in with a new television ad that was a thinly-veiled effort to highlight Romney's opposition to the 2009 auto bailouts.

The ad specifically cites Romney's 2008 op-ed advocating bankruptcy for General Motors and Chrysler, contrasting it with Obama's decision to provide support to the troubled automaker -- a popular decision, even with Republicans, here in Michigan, where the auto industry looms large. The campaign spent about $43,000 on the spot.

Priorities USA, the super PAC backed by Obama, also got in on the advertising action. That group’s ad more explicitly targets Romney over the auto bailouts in an effort to hurt the former Massachusetts governor, and, at the very least, extend and bloody the GOP primary. Priorities USA put about $230,000 behind its ad.

Laura Segall / Reuters

Are Republicans looking for a candidate beyond these four men?

What were once murmurs about a late entry by a candidate into the Republican presidential primary or a potential convention fight for the nomination have become a topic of open speculation in the GOP, reflecting concerns about the party’s existing crop of competitors.

Odds remain heavily stacked against the party arriving at its convention without a nominee, but the remaining candidates face lingering doubts about their strength versus President Barack Obama ... and that's fueling discussion that some kind of “knight in shining armor” could, or should, ride in to “save” the GOP at the last moment.

Mitt Romney in particular is facing fresh doubts about his ability to take the reins in the Republican primary after failing to win several recent caucus contests. Now Romney appears to be at risk of losing next Tuesday’s primary in his native Michigan to Rick Santorum.

Romney has failed to seal the deal in a series of key primaries and caucuses over the month and a half, struggling to win over skeptical conservatives. Santorum, in turn, has rallied those conservatives to score victories which stymied Romney’s momentum, but did nothing to quell doubts about the former Pennsylvania senator’s ability to square off against Obama in November.

The speculation -- New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, who’s endorsed Romney, acknowledged Wednesday that he’s still facing pressure to wage his own campaign -- may well reach a fever pitch after Super Tuesday on March 6.

If the race between Romney, Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul remains stalemated and no single candidate is able to amass the number of delegates needed to clinch the nomination, talk will grow louder about a once-unthinkable possibility: a contested, or brokered, convention and the potential for a new candidate to be added to the mix.

"Anything's possible. I think it's unlikely," Romney said earlier this month on FOX News, addressing the possibility of a contested convention.

"I must say I'd be a little surprised if we went all the way to August or September until we had a nominee. That would be unusual.  Is it mathematically possible? Yeah, but usually one or the other candidates runs out of money, runs out of support, and someone else is able to garner the delegates needed for the nomination," Romney said.

Gingrich, who’s vowed to fight all the way to the convention, was more sanguine Wednesday morning on FOX News: “I think it may go all the way to Tampa. I think this may be the most open nominating process we've seen since 1940.”

Such scenarios are, in part, the continuation of the dominant campaign story line from 2011, when Republican activists fiercely courted other candidates to join the race.

A number of Republicans to whom conservatives had looked ended up skipping the race; governors like Haley Barbour of Mississippi and Mitch Daniels of Indiana declined running. Only Texas Gov. Rick Perry fell victim to the swan song of dissatisfied Republicans, and made in August what was then considered a “late” entry into the campaign.

And even Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan and Christie reconsidered their opposition to running in response to Republican entreaties last fall.

NBC News projections have allocated 138 total delegates between Romney, Santorum, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, and Texas Rep. Ron Paul as a result of the first nine primaries. Fifty-nine delegates are at stake in next week’s Arizona and Michigan primaries, with 43 up for grabs in March 3’s Washington caucus. A whopping 437 delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday, on which 10 states host caucuses or primaries.

First Thoughts: About last night's debate

Continuing on into March, though, rule changes from the Republican National Committee mean that a number of the primaries and contests that allotted its delegates on a winner-take-all basis in 2008 are now forced to award delegates proportionally -- in some cases, as long as no candidate clears 50 percent -- in 2012. Many of these contests are back-loaded in the primary calendar this spring, making it more difficult for any candidate to amass a major lead in the delegate count.

A candidate needs 1,144 delegates to secure the nomination, making a late entry difficult but certainly not implausible with big states which offer large shares of delegates yet to vote. The filing deadlines for most states have passed, though a candidate could conceivably enter and play to win a large contest like California. Those primaries and caucuses wouldn't give a candidate enough delegates to win the nomination, but he or she might carry momentum into a brokered convention.

The notion that Romney has even addressed such scenarios, however unlikely they may be, highlights the difficulties he’s facing in winning over conservatives. That breakdown is reflected in Wednesday’s NBC News/Marist polls, in which Santorum leads Romney among voters in Arizona and Michigan who describe themselves as “very conservative.”

If he loses next Tuesday in Michigan to Santorum, talk about finding a new candidate -- either through a late primary entry or a brokered convention -- is poised to reach a fever pitch.

“We have a great field though, as it stands, and we are going to see how this process evolves and if it if ends up as a brokered convention at the end of the day, well that would be a really exciting time for all,” former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the GOP’s 2008 vice presidential nominee, told reporters earlier this month at the annual CPAC conference. (She said Tuesday evening on FOX News that Republicans shouldn’t fear a contested convention, though she expressed doubt that party leaders would turn to her in case of a stalemate.)

Romney and Santorum clash on a range of issues in critical debate

“If that’s what happens, that’s fine,” Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, a conservative darling, told a Florida Fox affiliate earlier this month. Rubio, a favorite choice as a running mate for the eventual GOP nominee, said he still saw such a scenario as unlikely.

But a brokered convention remains more a fantasy of political journalists at this point than a realistic scenario. A virtual perfect storm of variables would have to fall into place for none of the four remaining Republican candidates to have won enough delegates to secure the nomination by late August.

And the bench of remaining Republican candidates is scant; a number of onetime GOP hopefuls have ruled out running, and would have to reverse their stance. There are also very few unifying national figures right now in the GOP who could rally the whole party behind their candidacy. And any candidate to make a late entry or win nomination at the convention would face major logistical and fundraising hurdles trying to quickly bring a national campaign online.

“I just don't see that happening,” Daniels said Tuesday on the Fox Business Network about his willingness to reconsider. “And I can't say often enough that this is just not an obsession or personal ambition of mine.”

Moreover, the existing crop of candidates is primed to carry the fight all the way to the convention. Gingrich might have been forced to end his campaign for lack of finances in a more conventional cycle, but a super PAC funded primarily by billionaire Sheldon Adelson may help the ex-speaker follow through with his vow to fight all the way to the convention.

And Romney advisers have consistently said they have been working on a strategy aimed at winning the necessary number of delegates to secure the nomination -- a type of long-game strategy that could advantage the former Massachusetts governor.

*** UPDATED AT 1:45 PM ET WITH COMMENT FROM RUBIO SPOKESMAN AND CORRECTS TIMELINE***

Quick: What religion is the son of Cuban exiles?

Answer: Roman Catholic, right? Right.

And also Mormon?

That’s right, Marco Rubio, the conservative senator on everyone’s short list for vice president, was a member of the LDS Church in his youth, BuzzFeed reports.

Jonathan Ernst / Reuters

When Rubio's family moved to a suburb of Las Vegas, many in his immediate family converted.

When Rubio's family moved to a suburb of Las Vegas, near cousins who were Mormon, many in his immediate family (but not his father) converted, including Marco. Rubio was baptized in the church when he was 8 and enthusiastically participated in the religion, according to the report.

Rubio spokesman Alex Conant tells First Read BuzzFeed is incorrect that "Rubio's steadfast participation in the Mormon church continued for several years—until his parents decided to move them to Miami." (*** UPDATE *** BuzzFeed has clarified: "The cousins said Rubio's participation in the Mormon church continued for several years, until his parents decided to move them to Miami—though Conant said the family left the church before leaving Nevada.")

In fact, Conant said, "He left the church when he was 11 or 12, he received his first communion in 1984 when he was 13, and they didn’t move back to Miami until the next year, in 1985."

BuzzFeed’s McKay Coppins writes:

“The revelation adds a new dimension to Rubio's already-nuanced religious history—and could complicate his political future at a time when many Republicans see him as the odds-on favorite for the 2012 vice presidential nod. Vice presidential candidates are traditionally chosen to provide ethnic and religious balance to a ticket. Mitt Romney's Mormonism and Rubio's Catholic faith would already mean the first two members of minority traditions on a Republican ticket in American history. Rubio's Mormon roots could further complicate that calculation.”

NBC Latino reports that a former Rubio campaign staffer said this should have no bearing on whether the Florida senator's picked as VP and that he is a "devout Catholic":

“It should not affect it at all, that is totally unfair,” says Bertica Cabrera Morris, who ran Senator Rubio’s campaign in Central Florida and is a Senior Advisor to the Romney campaign, as well as a member of Romney’s Hispanic Steering Committee.

“Marco is a devout Catholic,” Cabrera Morris adds. “The first thing he did when he was confirmed as a Senator was have a Mass,” she adds. “His whole life is about faith.”

And Cabrera-Morris said:

"His family attended the church for a few years.  He went with his family.”

One of the cousins described Marco to BuzzFeed, though, as being “totally into it.”

“Over the years, he and his cousins frequented LDS youth groups, attended church most Sundays—often walking to the chapel because his mother didn't know how to drive—and latched on to the mainstream Mormon culture that was easily accessible in LDS-heavy Nevada.

“For example, when they were in elementary school, Rubio formed a singing group with Michelle and his sister that would put on performances for extended family. Their inspiration? The Osmonds, of course.”

But all that changed when the family was going to move to Miami.

“Rubio was just reaching high school age when his family relocated, and [cousin] Mo [Denis] speculates that their transition to an area with fewer Mormons likely took its toll.”

A Rubio spokesmantold BuzzFeed “that Rubio never requested to have his name removed from the LDS Church's records, which means officially, the church is likely still counting him as a member.”

And:

“While Rubio continues to identify as a Conservative Roman Catholic, he frequently attends a non-denominational Baptist church with his family in Florida. As his notoriety increases, both communities have sought to lay claim to the rising political star, with little resistance from Rubio himself. In fact, the politician has cooperated for profiles in both the Catholic Advocate, and the Evangelical World Magazine—granting pitch-perfect interviews to each.”

NBC Latino also talked to Ignacio García, a professor at Brigham Young University and a Latino Mormon. García said, NBC Latino writes, "it is not surprising that the Rubio family attended a Mormon church when they lived in Nevada."

"Unless you are hiding under a rock,” García said, “a Latino family in Nevada would have been approached by Mormons, who are welcoming to Latinos, especially immigrants.”

In fact, LDS Church leaders have told NBC News that Latinos are a growth area for the church and are more progressive on immigration policy than on other church policies, like abortion, for example.

Some congressional offices outside Washington and media organizations have received threatening letters containing a suspicious powdery substance that was tested and proved to be harmless, the FBI and the Senate's top law enforcement officer said Wednesday.

Sergeant-at-Arms Terrance Gainer said in a memo to Senate offices that the letters were sent to three state and home district offices. A district office of House Speaker John Boehner, R-Ohio, received one of the letters, spokesman Kevin Smith said.

Alex Wong / Getty Images

A district office of House Speaker John Boehner received a threatening letter containing a suspicious powdery substance that was tested and proved to be harmless.

A federal law enforcement official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said that so far fewer than 10 members of Congress had received letters.

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Letters were also sent to several media organizations. FBI spokesman Peter Donald said agents had responded to Viacom and at least one other location in New York. Preliminary tests showed that the powder did not pose a threat, he said.

"So far, none of the letters have contained a hazardous substance," FBI Special Agent Jason Pack said. "We are working with those law enforcement agencies affected to determine if the mailings are related. We take these matters seriously and will investigate fully."

The letters tell the recipients that there is a "10 percent chance you have just been exposed to a lethal pathogen."

Even though none of the letters that have been tested have contained harmful substances, Gainer told staff to be extra vigilant.

"The author of these letters has indicated that additional letters containing a powdery substance will be arriving at more Senate offices and that some of these letters may contain an actual harmful material," Gainer's memo to Senate offices said. "Although all letters received thus far have proved harmless, it is essential that we treat every piece of suspicious mail as if it may, in fact, be harmful."

The letters bore a return address from "The MIB" and were postmarked Portland, Ore.

The Portland return address on the letters appears to be phony. The combination of the address given — 2413 NW Burnside, ZIP code 97209 — does not exist.

The sender wants an "end to corporate money and 'lobbying,'" an end to corporate "personhood" and a new constitutional convention. The Associated Press obtained a copy of a letter.

The threats raised memories of post-9/11 incidents that rattled Washington. In mid-November 2001, authorities closed two Senate office buildings after anthrax attacks on Congress. Those attacks came after four people — two postal workers in Washington, a New York City hospital worker and a Florida photo editor — died from exposure to anthrax.

Also at that time, an unopened envelope sent to Sen. Patrick Leahy, D-Vt., resembled a letter mailed the previous month to then-Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D. The Leahy letter was discovered in the 280 barrels of congressional mail quarantined after a Daschle employee opened a powder-filled envelope.

Updated 2:59 p.m. ET 

President Barack Obama confronted Americans' anxiety over rising gasoline prices by drawing attention to his energy policies and taking credit for rising oil production in a speech Thursday to students and faculty at the University of Miami.

Obama touted an energy strategy that the administration says will reduce dependence on foreign oil in the long term and called sustainable energy initiatives the only “real solution.” But Obama's pitch also carried a subtext: the federal government can do little to halt the current rise in gasoline prices.

Recommended: Slideshow -- Obama's third year in office

 
“The oil market is global,” the president said. “The single biggest thing that’s causing the price of oil to spike right now is instability in the region – this time around Iran.”

But Obama said developing new technologies to reduce energy consumption – such as those that use alternative natural resources like algae – is the real key to minimizing U.S. dependence on foreign oil, and that that additional drilling will not solve the current problem.

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Obama shakes hands upon his arrival in Florida to speak to students at the University of Miami about oil and gas prices in the U.S.

“I’ll save you the suspense – step one is to drill and step two is to drill, and step three is to keep drilling,” Obama said of Republicans’ forthcoming plan to lower gas prices.

The president also pledged to try and make available 75 percent of the nation’s offshore oil and gas reserves.

White House advisers believe Obama needs to address the recent spike in gasoline prices, even though they see it as a cyclical occurrence. The current $3.58 per gallon is the highest price at the pump ever for this time of year.

Obama aides worry that the rise in prices could reverse the country's economic gains and the president's improved political standing. A new Associated Press-GfK poll shows that though Obama's approval rating on the economy has climbed, 58 percent disapprove of what he's doing on gas prices.

Republicans have seized on the issue, citing Obama's decision to reject a permit for a cross-country oil pipeline as evidence of a misguided policy. Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum has warned of $5-a-gallon gas, while former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has said he could lower prices to $2.50 a gallon.

White House officials point to increased oil production and decreased consumption as evidence that Obama's policies are working and will lead to greater energy independence in the long run. But they assert there is little Obama — or any president — can do to change the trajectory of prices now.

Despite more domestic oil and less consumption, "these prices are going up, and that tells you that there are other things beyond our control, like unrest in the Middle East or other factors like the growth of emerging countries such as China and India," White House spokesman Jay Carney said Wednesday.

To be sure, oil and gas production has increased during the Obama administration, though the trend began during the presidency of George W. Bush, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The increase has reversed a decline that began in 1986, and the agency projects that by 2020 oil production will reach a level not seen since 1994.

The agency also has reported a drop in petroleum consumption, caused by the economic downturn after the 2008 recession, new efficiencies and changes in consumer behavior.

While in Florida, Obama also plans to raise money, including a $30,000-a-person event at the Windermere, Fla., home of Dallas Mavericks guard Vince Carter. An avid basketball fan, Obama will attend a dinner Thursday at Carter's house just three days before the NBA All-Star Game in nearby Orlando.

Obama also will attend fundraising events at the Biltmore Hotel and at the Coral Gables home of lawyer Chris Korge, a top fundraiser for Hillary Rodham Clinton's 2008 presidential campaign.

Last week, Obama took a three-day West Coast trip and raised about $8 million in eight campaign events.

Mitt Romney said Wednesday that his tax plan would maintain or possibly even raise the effective tax rate for the wealthiest of Americans.

Speaking at a pre-debate rally this morning in Arizona, Romney previewed the release of his new tax and economics plan, which he'll detail later this week in a major speech at Detroit's Ford Field. The sneak peek came the same day the Obama administration released its corporate tax reform proposal.

Among the elements of the plan is an across-the-board 20 percent cut in marginal tax rates, which would lower the top rate to 28 percent -- the same maximum rate during President Reagan's time in office.

But in Arizona, Romney suggested his policy might result in a tax hike for the wealthiest of Americans.

"I want to make sure that you understand for middle-income families, the deductibility of home mortgage interest and charitable contributions – those things will continue, but for high-income folks, we’re going to cut back on that, so that we make sure the top 1 percent keeps paying the current share they’re paying or more," he said.

Romney explained that he favors limiting deductions and exemptions, particularly for the wealthiest of Americans, a notion backed up by economic advisers in a subsequent conference call detailing the plan. Advisers to Romney said his tax plan was designed to be revenue-neutral.

The Tax Policy Center estimated earlier this month that the top 1 percent pays an effective tax rate of 20,3 percent on individual income (as a percentage of cash income). That could mean an effective tax hike for the wealthiest, at least on individual income. (Other portions of the Romney plan, such as cuts to taxes on estates or investment-related income, could benefit the wealthy.)

The former Massachusetts governor's reveal on Wednesday comes a day after he said of his tax and spending plan that cutting spending would slow down economic growth. (Pro-growth tax reform is needed to balance out the effects of the cuts, Romney reasoned.)

Taxes were also an issue for Romney during the primary campaign in January, when rival presidential hopeful Newt Gingrich, the former House speaker, demanded that Romney release his most recent tax returns.

Romney did eventually release those returns, which showed that he paid an effective tax rate of around 14 percent, since most of his income came through investments, which is taxed at a lower rate.

With the Republican contenders meeting in Mesa, Ariz., Wednesday night for their final debate before Tuesday’s primaries in that state and in Michigan, the issue of illegal immigration will likely get another turn in the spotlight and the GOP will get another reminder of the general election difficulties it faces with Hispanic voters.

None of the four remaining GOP contenders has voiced support for a broad amnesty that would allow younger illegal immigrants to become permanent legal residents.

NBC-Marist Michigan poll

NBC-Marist Arizona poll

Of the four, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich has the most accommodating policy toward illegal immigration, calling for local citizen review boards to allow some long-term illegal residents to remain in the United States.

While immigration hasn’t been a dominant issue in this GOP presidential contest, it has a deep impact in Arizona where Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, signed SB 1070, a crackdown on illegal immigrants in 2010. Brewer has not yet endorsed a Republican presidential contender.

President Barack Obama’s Justice Department is trying to overturn that Arizona law and the Supreme Court hears oral arguments in that case on April 25.

The GOP contenders are unlikely to directly criticize the Arizona law in Wednesday's debate on Brewer’s home turf. More than two-thirds of likely Republican primary voters in Arizona said they’d be more inclined to vote for a presidential candidate who backs SB 1070, according to the NBC News/Marist Poll released Wednesday.

The GOP contenders walk a fine line: hard-hitting rhetoric on immigration is popular with conservative primary voters, but may be costly in the fall because Latinos seem likely to account for a bigger share of the general electorate in battleground states like Colorado and Nevada than they did four years ago.

With Brewer now one face of the party on the issue, the GOP has come a long way from 2004 when President George W. Bush -- who said “family values don’t stop at the Rio Grande” -- won an estimated 43 percent of Latino voters. Republican candidate John McCain won an estimated 31 percent of Latino voters in 2008.

In the 2008 election, Arizona went for its own senator, McCain. This year, its 11 electoral votes are an alluring target for Obama’s strategists. But the Democrats’ “chances of it flipping are pretty minimal” this year due to the conservatism of white voters there, said Ruy Teixeira, a political demographer and senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, a Democratic-allied think tank.

In the NBC News/Marist Poll of Arizona voters, in a hypothetical contest between Obama and Mitt Romney, 45 percent said they’d support Romney and 40 percent said they’d back Obama.

But overall in the general election, “The Latino vote is going to be absolutely crucial in 2012,” Teixeira said at a recent conference on Latino voters at American University in Washington. 

In Nevada, for example, Teixeira projects a four percentage-point increase in the minority share of the vote and a five-point decline in white working-class voters’ share of the vote.

If Obama can win 80 percent of minority voters nationally, “he could get shellacked” among white voters “as badly as Democratic congressional candidates were in 2010, when they lost the white working class by 30 points” and yet “he could almost survive that level of shellacking,” Teixeira argued.

For every presidential hopeful, a $1 million donor

Even in Pennsylvania, where Latinos were only four percent of the 2008 electorate, they may end up being crucial, Teixeira said.

He predicted that Obama will lose among Pennsylvania’s white working-class voters, but “all he has to do is not get totally wiped out. He can afford a 15-point loss, he can afford a 20-point loss, what he doesn’t want is 30-point loss” among white working-class voters.

“If he can get the Latino vote mobilized and motivated to vote for him at a high level, I think it very much reinforces his chances of taking the state,” he said.

Polling of registered Latino voters for Univision last month suggested that GOP opposition to the DREAM Act will make it impossible for most Latinos to vote Republican in November. In the Univision poll, 85 percent of Latino voters supported the DREAM Act.

Passed by the House, but rejected by the Senate in 2010, the DREAM Act would allow non-citizens under age 30 who entered the United States illegally before their 16th birthday to remain as legal U.S. residents, as long as they’d committed no serious crimes, earned a high school diploma, or served in the military.

Even though more than 60 percent of Latinos are U.S. born, and thus American citizens, most Latino registered voters also say they know someone -- sometimes a family member -- who is an illegal immigrant. That personal connection is one reason why the DREAM Act has become a litmus test.

All but three GOP senators voted against allowing a vote on the DREAM Act in 2010; all but five Democratic senators voted for it.

Obama’s support for the DREAM Act may be an electoral liability in states such as North Carolina -- Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan and three of the state’s Democratic House members voted against it in 2010 -- and in Indiana: Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Joe Donnelly voted against it. Obama carried both North Carolina and Indiana in 2008.

But elsewhere Obama’s support for the bill seems likely to help him win Latino votes.

“A lot of Latinos are very upset about Obama’s deportation policies” -- there were a record number of deportations in 2010 -- “there’s a disappointment there,” Teixeira said, but he contends that what he calls the “anti-immigrant tenor” of the Republican Party “is pushing Latinos into the arms of the Democratic Party.”

Stanford University political scientist Gary Segura said that the GOP “has missed a strategic opportunity” to win over Latinos. Obama, he said, “is assuming he has support (among Latinos) that he may not have, but he might ultimately get away with it anyway ... because of Republican messaging on the (immigration) issue.”

Republican National Committee spokeswoman Alexandra Franceschi disputed the idea that immigration will dominate Latino voters’ decisions in November.

Romney's organization meets Santorum's momentum

Polls, she said, “show that the number one issue that Hispanics across the country are considering when they’re going to make an electoral decision is jobs and the economy. I think the immigration issue kind of gets blown out of proportion ... .”

She noted that unemployment rate among Latinos is two points higher than the national average “and they’re really frustrated by President Obama’s failed economic policies.”

The RNC launched a Latino outreach program last month, hiring Bettina Inclan, a former strategist for Florida Gov. Rick Scott, to direct that effort which will put RNC field workers in Florida, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada to mobilize Latino Republicans.

The tension over immigration in the GOP has been between Gingrich and Romney.

In a debate last December, Gingrich referred to “someone who's been here 25 years, somebody who has been a good local citizen, may well belong to your church, has children and grandchildren in the United States,” and argued that “I do not believe the people of the United States are going to send the police in to rip that kind of person out and ship them out of this country ... .”

But he also said that most illegal workers in the United States “should go home immediately” and “we should make deportation dramatically easier.”

Gingrich in one ad branded Romney as “the most anti-immigrant candidate,” and despite taking down that ad, stood by that label when asked about it in a debate last month.

Romney has said, “I am pro-immigrant. I want people to come to America with skill and vitality and vibrancy. I want them to come legally.”

He has also said, “I'm not going around and rounding people up and deporting them.” He proposes that legal immigrants receive a work permit. “People who do not come here legally do not get a work permit. Those who don't get work will tend, over time, to self-deport,” he said.

Romney said last month that he’d veto the DREAM Act, but he supports a version of it that would open a path to citizenship to those who serve in the U.S. military.

Despite the general Latino support for the DREAM Act, Romney did win 54 percent of Latino voters in Florida’s Jan. 31 Republican primary.

Former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum voted against the 2006 comprehensive immigration reform bill which included a version of the DREAM Act.

He supports legal immigration, in order to boost population growth -- “We are not replacing ourselves,” he warned last month -- and because “immigrants bring a vitality and a love of this country that infuses this country with great energy.”

But he said, “people who have come to this country illegally have broken the law repeatedly” by working here and must be deported.

The maverick GOP contender, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, who voted against the Dream Act in 2010, said in a debate last month, “We spend way too much time worrying about the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Use some of those resources on our own border.”

But Paul also seemed to imply he’d tolerate some illegal immigration in a boom economy: “The weaker the economy, the more resentment there is when illegals come in. If you have a healthy, vibrant economy, it's not a problem; we're usually looking for workers.”

Tied up in Michigan: New NBC/Marist poll -- Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, Gingrich 8%... But NBC/Marist also has Romney with a sizable lead in Arizona – Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, Paul 11%... Organization is helping Romney in both states (see his early-voting/absentee advantage), but ideology is hurting him (Tea Party supporters and conservatives breaking toward Santorum)… General-election numbers: Obama leads in Michigan, but trails in Arizona… Three questions heading into tonight’s GOP debate in Arizona… It’s the 20^th of the cycle, and it begins at 8:00 pm ET… And Obama’s corporate-tax plan.

*** Tied up in Michigan: Less than a week before Tuesday’s crucial GOP presidential primary in Michigan -- and before tonight’s debate in Arizona -- a new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona. The Michigan numbers among likely Republican primary voters: Romney 37%, Santorum 35%, Paul 13%, and Gingrich 8%. The Arizona figures: Romney 43%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 16%, and Paul 11%. “Michigan is neck and neck,” says pollster Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion, which conducted both surveys (Feb. 19-20).

Paul Sancya / AP, file

A new NBC/Marist poll finds Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum locked in a statistical tie in Michigan, while a separate NBC/Marist survey shows Romney comfortably leading in Arizona.

*** Organization vs. momentum: What’s helping Romney in both states is organization; what’s hurting him is a lack of support from conservatives. Among those who have ALREADY voted absentee in Michigan -- 16% of likely GOP voters, according to the poll -- Romney leads Santorum, 49%-26%.But among those who HAVEN’T voted in Michigan yet, Santorum is up by one point, 37%-36%. The same is true in Arizona: Among those who have voted early or absentee in Arizona -- more than half of all likely GOP voters in the poll -- Romney leads by 30 points, 52%-22%. But his lead is just one point among those who haven’t voted yet, 34%-33%. Call it organization vs. momentum. But while the Romney campaign’s early-voting organization is clearly helping him, a lack of support from conservatives is hurting him. In Michigan, Santorum leads Romney among self-identified Tea Party supporters, 48%-29%, and those who describe themselves as “very conservative,” 59%-20%. Yet among those who don’t support the Tea Party, Romney is ahead by more than 20 points, 45%-24%. The same ideological pattern is true in Arizona, although Romney performs much better with the most conservative voters there than in Michigan (thanks in part to the larger Mormon population in Arizona).

*** Obama leads in Michigan, trails in Arizona: Turning to the general-election race in November, Obama leads Romney in Michigan by nearly 20 points among registered voters, 51%-33%, with 15% undecided. Against Paul, the president’s lead is 22 points (53%-31%); against Santorum, it’s 26 points (55%-29%); and against Gingrich, it’s 28 points (56%-28%). What’s more, 51% of registered Michigan voters approve of Obama’s job; 63% of them believe the auto industry bailout was a good idea (including 61% of independents and 42% of likely GOP primary voters); and a majority think the president deserves credit for the auto industry’s recovery. But Arizona is tougher territory for the president, whose approval rating among registered voters in the state is just 38 percent. In hypothetical match-ups in the state, Obama trails Romney by five points (40%-45%); Santorum by three (42%-45%); Paul by two points (41%- 43%); yet he leads Gingrich by five (45%-40%). Bottom line: Michigan probably won’t be a battleground come November, and Arizona also appears to be a reach -- though the one number Team Obama might take heart in is the fact he ONLY leads Romney 50%-33% among Hispanics in the state… with 17% undecided. But it’s still hard to see how the president gets over 47%-48% in Arizona THIS November.

*** Three questions heading into tonight’s debate: The four remaining Republican presidential candidates will gather tonight in Mesa, AZ beginning at 8:00 pm ET to participate in the 20^th debate of the GOP race. Here are three questions we have going into the debate. One, will Santorum get sucked into the conversations on social issues? Over the past four or five days, the story surrounding Santorum has been defined by either religion or social issues. (The latest development here: The Drudge oppo-research hit on a 2008 Santorum speech in which Santorum said, “Satan is attacking the great institutions of America.”) Two, will the debate feature the emerging “bro-mance” between Romney and Paul? (The latest examples: Paul’s new TV ad hitting Santorum, as well as his campaign sending anti-Santorum oppo to reporters.) And three, after being largely silent over the last couple of weeks, will we see any life from Gingrich tonight?

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Before tonight’s debate, Romney holds a rally in Chandler, AZ… And Santorum delivers a speech in Tucson.

*** Obama’s corporate-tax plan: “President Obama will ask Congress to scrub the corporate tax code of dozens of loopholes and subsidies to reduce the top rate to 28 percent, down from 35 percent, while giving preferences to manufacturers that would set their maximum effective rate at 25 percent,” the New York Times writes. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will outline this corporate-tax plan today. A couple of points to make here: 1) The White House is refusing -- for now -- to get into individual income-tax reform, because that’s MUCH trickier (you have to eliminate popular deductions, etc.); and 2) The timing of this announcement comes before Romney’s own economic speech on Friday. As NBC’s Garrett Haake reported yesterday, Romney promised “to unveil a more specific economic plan later this week, one that that would integrate his views on tax policy, spending and entitlement reform into one complete package.” It is hard to do corporate tax reform separate from individual income tax reform which is why this White House policy release should be viewed through a much more political prism until and unless we see real details on individual income tax reform.

Countdown to Arizona and Michigan primaries: 6 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 13 days
Countdown to Election Day: 258 days

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Updated at 12:51 p.m. ET

Just two dozen ultra-wealthy donors are behind a surge of million-dollar contributions to the new breed of political committees during the presidential campaign.

Millionaire and billionaire executives have unlocked their personal bank vaults to write seven-figure checks to support the campaigns of Democratic President Barack Obama and the Republicans vying to oppose him: Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul.

More than half of the $60 million collected so far by the new group of independently run super political action committees supporting presidential candidates came from just 24 wealthy Americans, according to an Associated Press review of financial reports filed by the campaigns. The super-sized checks amount to $33 million, and in some cases, the contributions of $1 million or more represent most of the money that several super PACs have collected.

See related: Santorum 'super' PAC returned big foreign donation

These outsized donations — more than 40 times the amount ordinary Americans can give directly to a politician — are allowed under the landmark 2010 Supreme Court ruling in the Citizens United case.

The ruling made it possible for super PACs to raise and spend unlimited sums to support political campaigns. The groups must legally remain independent from the candidates they support, but many are staffed with former campaign aides with intimate knowledge of the campaigns' strategy.

Freed by the Citizens United case and other rulings that allowed unlimited donations with minimal disclosure, the mega-donors are pumping unprecedented amounts of cash to favored candidates. The lavish gifts are stoking negative campaign ad wars and making mega-donors essential to the tactics and operations of the super PACs.

"It's just so much easier for these people to make large contributions and play a much more prominent role than we've tended to see," said Brendan Glavin, a researcher with the Campaign Finance Institute, a Washington-based nonpartisan think tank.

Here's a list of each presidential candidate's wealthiest supporters:

—Even among seven-figure donors, nobody approaches the $11 million that Las Vegas casino billionaire Sheldon Adelson and his family have given to Winning Our Future, the group supporting former House Speaker Gingrich, which has $13.1 million in total contributions. Adelson gave $5 million; his wife, Miriam, another $5 million. The rest came in smaller, but still sizeable amounts from Adelson's daughters, Sivan Ochshorn and Yasmin Lukatz, and Lukatz's husband, Oren. Gingrich has said Adelson and his family support his strong pro-Israel statements. Adelson has important business interests in China, and his casino is under federal investigation by the Justice Department and a civil probe by the Securities and Exchange Commission for possible violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act. The company denies wrongdoing.

—Winning Our Future also gained $1 million from Texas billionaire Harold Simmons, a longtime Republican donor who was a key funder of the Swift Boat veterans' attacks on Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry in 2004. Simmons, whose interests range from energy to chemicals, so far has donated $12 million — both personally and through his firm, Contran — to American Crossroads, the Republican-leaning super PAC co-founded by Republican strategist Karl Rove.

—The co-founder of PayPal and an early investor in Facebook, Peter Thiel, has given $2.6 million to Endorse Liberty, the group supporting Texas Rep. Paul. Nearly 70 percent of the group's money comes from Thiel, a Silicon Valley investor. An ardent supporter of Libertarian causes, Thiel has donated to gay rights and religious organizations and also helped fund the Committee to Protect Journalists. His Facebook investment alone is now reportedly worth $1.3 billion.

—The chief executive at DreamWorks Animation, Jeffrey Katzenberg, has given $2 million to the group supporting Obama's re-election, Priorities USA Action, which accounts for nearly half the group's $4.5 million total. Katzenberg has hosted fundraisers for Obama and has been a longtime funder of liberal and Democratic Party causes.

—Hotel magnates and brothers Bill and Richard Marriott have given $1.5 million to Restore Our Future, the group supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Romney. Bill Marriott heads Marriott International, while Richard Marriott heads offshoot Host Hotels & Resorts. Romney, whose first name is Willard, was named after the Marriotts' father, who was close friends with Mitt Romney's father, George Romney. Mitt Romney also served for years on Marriott's board of directors.

—Julian Robertson, the head of Tiger Management Corp., a major New York-based hedge fund, gave $1.3 million to Restore Our Future. Robertson's son is also a Romney donor, and both have co-chaired Romney fundraisers.

—Other rich executives who gave at least $1 million to help Romney's campaign include Paul Edgerly, a managing director at Bain Capital, and his wife Sandra, who each donated $500,000; Edward Conard, a former Bain executive; Mormon businessman Frank VanderSloot; Paul Singer, founder and CEO of Elliott Management Corp., a top New York-based hedge fund; John Paulson, head of Paulson and Co., another major hedge fund; Bob Perry, a Houston real estate developer; Tulsa businessman Francis Rooney; Robert Mercer, co-chief of Renaissance Technologies, a New York hedge fund; and William Koch, head of Oxbow Carbon, LLC, a fossil fuel processor and mining firm.

—The group supporting former Pennsylvania Sen. Santorum — the Red, White and Blue Fund — collected nearly all its $2.8 million so far from just two major, $1 million contributions. Foster S. Friess, a mutual fund entrepreneur and conservative advocate, is a major funder behind the Daily Caller, a conservative web news aggregator, and has his own website advocating free enterprise and warning about militant Islam. Friess opposed the Obama administration's health care program and gave $100,000 to statewide Republican races and causes in 2008.

—The pro-Santorum group's other $1 million contribution came from William J. Dore, president of a Louisiana energy and real estate firm. Dore backed New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu and other state Democrats, but he has also funded Republican politicians, as well as charities in Louisiana and Texas.