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Bob DiGregorio, a supporter of Republican presidential candidate, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, leaves a caucus training session held at the Sheraton on Jan. 3, 2012 in West Des Moines, Iowa. After months of campaigning by candidates, Iowan voters throughout the state prepare to participate in the first caucus of the 2012 presidential election.

Rick Wilking / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum is surrounded by the media after a campaign stop in Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 3, 2012, the day of the Iowa caucus.

Jim Lo Scalzo / EPA

Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, flanked by staff members, greets Iowa voters at a campaign event at the Temple for Performing Arts in Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 3, 2012.

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate and U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann stands with her daughter, Caroline Bachmann, and Iowa's 5th congressional district U.S. Representative Steve King during a news conference in West Des Moines, Iowa, on Jan. 3, 2012.

Jeff Haynes / Reuters

A Newt Gingrich supporter holds two postcards of Gingrich while listening to him speak at Elly's Tea and Coffee in Muscatine, Iowa, on Jan. 3, 2012.

Joshua Lott / Reuters

Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul greets supporters during a campaign stop in West Des Moines, Iowa on Jan. 3, 2012.

For the latest information from the campaign trail see our FirstRead blog.

WEST DES MOINES, Iowa -- With a sense of history on the biggest political day -- to date -- of the 2012 cycle, Texas Gov. Rick Perry today compared the GOP's quest to defeat President Barack Obama to one of the deadliest battles of the D-Day landings in Normandy in 1944.

"This election is about stopping a president of the United States and his administration that is abusing the Constitution of this country, that is putting America on a track to bankruptcy," Perry told a hotel ballroom packed with more than 200 volunteers. 

"It is a powerful moment in Americans' history, and you are on the front lines," he added. "This is Concord. This is Omaha Beach. This is going up the hill realizing that the battle is worth winning."

Those supporters, who represent 32 states, descended on the Perry team's nerve center at the West Des Moines Sheraton after the Christmas holiday. About 500 of them will fan out to caucus sites today across the state to advocate for the Texas governor.

Introducing her husband, an emotional Anita Perry thanked supporters for their loyalty in a campaign most recently scarred by a Politico article rife with quotes from anonymous staff members who savaged their colleagues for the team's early disorganization.

While Perry has gained few endorsements since his famously devastating debate performance in Michigan back in November, several of his early backers have made the journey to frigid Iowa for the governor's final push.

South Carolina Rep. Mick Mulvaney, Texas Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst, Kansas Gov. Sam Brownback, and Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal are among the allies on hand.

And they remain loyal -- and on  message.

"I will leave it to the pundits to look at polls and campaign staff," Jindal told NBC News. "To be honest with you, I didn't endorse Rick because of the polls. I didn't endorse Rick because of his campaign organization. I endorsed him because of his executive experience and his fiscal conservatism."

It’s Caucus Day in Iowa… Romney yesterday: “We’re going to win this thing”… Gingrich yesterday: “I don’t think I’m going to win”… Gingrich also calls Romney a liar… Watch to watch tonight… What happens (process begins at 8:00 pm ET, results start coming in at 8:30 pm ET)… What the individual campaigns are doing to turn out their vote… Breaking down the total ad spending in Iowa… And breaking down the future ad spending in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida… And Obama to address Democratic caucus-goers, via video conference, at 8:15 pm ET.

Read Tuesday's original First Thoughts: Caucus Day

DES MOINES, IA -- In a Republican presidential contest marked by such volatility -- with seven different GOP candidates who have stood at or near the top of the polls in Iowa -- it would be only fitting for steady Mitt Romney to come out on top at tonight’s Iowa caucuses. Or Rick Santorum, who has become the latest (and final?) conservative candidate to surge in the polls. Or Ron Paul, whose supporters aren’t your traditional Republicans and GOP caucus-goers. Those three Republicans, according to the polls, are the front-runners heading into tonight’s caucuses in Iowa, and it’s possible that any of the three could win.

Winslow Townson / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and his wife Ann walk through a square while campaigning in Concord, N.H. Friday, Dec. 23, 2011.

*** Romney: “We’re going to win this thing”: Campaigning in Marion yesterday, Romney declared that he would win the caucuses, NBC’s Garrett Haake reports. "I need every single vote in this room, and I need you to get a couple of other votes from yours in your neighborhood and get to your caucus… We’re going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track.” After the rally, Haake adds, a Romney spokesperson told reporters that the candidate was saying he would win the nomination, not predicting a caucus victory (though the quote makes it pretty clear he was talking about Iowa). In an interview with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, Romney simply said, “We’re probably going to do pretty well.” Taking the opposite approach, Newt Gingrich yesterday observed, “I don’t think I’m going to win” in Iowa. Per NBC’s Alex Moe, Gingrich later said that was a mistake. “I got chewed out a little bit by one of our precinct captains who said to me I should not under any circumstance expect to do anything except to potentially win tomorrow night.”

*** Gingrich calls Romney a liar: Speaking of Gingrich, he appeared channel his inner Bob Dole from 1988 by calling Romney a liar. In an interview on CBS this morning, Gingrich was asked if he was calling Romney a liar, and he answered in the affirmative. “This is a man whose staff created the PAC (Restore Our Future), his friends fund the PAC, he pretends he has nothing to do with the PAC. It’s baloney. He’s not telling the American people the truth.”

NBC's Chuck Todd and David Gregory discuss why the Iowa caucuses matter and which Republican presidential hopeful will come out on top in Tuesday's race.

*** What to watch: As always in politics, the race probably hinges on turnout. If it’s similar to four years ago -- about 120,000 participants, 60% of whom are self-described evangelicals, and a combined 78% thinking that values and saying what you believe are the most important qualities -- then Santorum has a VERY good chance of winning. Under those circumstances, he becomes a mini-Huckabee. On the other hand, a much higher turnout -- so a smaller percentage of evangelicals and more thinking that electability and experience are the most important things -- would be VERY good news for Romney. A caveat on tonight’s entrance polls, though: ENTRANCE polls are less predictive than EXIT polls, so be cautious when the first wave comes out. Romney, in fact, led the first wave four years ago.

*** What happens: Republicans gather at more than 1,700 precinct locations across the Hawkeye State. The process -- at 8:00 pm ET -- starts with the election of a caucus chairman and caucus secretary. Shortly thereafter, the caucus leadership conducts a presidential preference straw poll. In most precincts, the poll is a simple, secret-ballot vote. Beforehand, each campaign is allowed to have one surrogate or volunteer speak on behalf of his or her candidate. The results begin coming in around 8:30 pm ET, and they will be available on the Iowa GOP’s web site. Note: The GOP caucusing is different from how Democrats do it. There is no shuffling from one corner to the next, or a need for 15% viability; it’s just a simple straw poll.

*** What the campaigns are doing: Here’s a round-up from NBC’s team of embed reporters on how what the different campaigns are doing to turn out their vote. The Paul campaign, per NBC’s Anthony Terrell, is asking its supporters to arrive to the precincts at 6:30 pm ET and it’s providing transportation. "If a senior or person with a disability calls and asks for a ride, we happily accommodate them," a campaign official says. Team Bachmann, according to NBC’s Jamie Novogrod, is asking its supporters to show up at 7:30 pm ET, and it’s not providing transportation. The Santorum campaign, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty, is asking its supporters to show up around 7:00 pm ET and isn’t providing transportation. The Perry camp, per NBC’s Carrie Dann, is asking its supporters to arrive between 7:00 pm and 7:30 pm ET, and it is providing transportation. Team Romney, according to NBC’s Garrett Haake, is asking its supporters to arrive 10 minutes early and is providing transportation only for special circumstances. And the Gingrich campaign, per NBC’s Alex Moe, is asking its supporters to arrive before the caucusing, and it isn’t providing transportation.

*** Total ad spending in Iowa: By the way, the campaigns and various Super PACs spent more than $16 million in advertising in Iowa. The breakdown for the major players: Perry $4.3 million, Paul $2.8 million, Restore Our Future (pro-Romney) $2.8 million, Make Us Great Again (pro-Perry) $1.6 million, Romney $1.5 million, Gingrich $980,000, Red White and Blue Fund (pro-Santorum) $530,000, Winning Our Future (pro-Gingrich) $264,000, Bachmann $180,000, and Santorum $30,000.

Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney tells TODAY's Savannah Guthrie he thinks he'll do well in Iowa but says he's "not predicting a win" in the state's caucuses. 

*** Future ad spending: And here’s what’s slated to run after today: In New Hampshire, Romney, Paul, and the pro-Huntsman Our Destiny PAC are all booked to run TV ads between tomorrow and the Jan. 9 primary. In South Carolina, Romney, Paul, and the pro-Romney Restore Our Future are booked. And in Florida, Restore Our Future is booked on broadcast advertising until Jan. 9.   

*** Obama to address Democratic caucus-goers: And while the focus is on tonight’s Republican caucuses in Iowa, Democrats hold theirs as well. And President Obama -- just back from his Christmas vacation in Hawaii -- is slated to address Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, via video teleconference, at 8:15 pm ET. And tomorrow, he goes to the important battleground state of Ohio, where he speaks in Cleveland.

Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 7 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 18 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 28 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 32 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 63 days
Countdown to Election Day: 308 days

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Rick Santorum

Media coverage of the Iowa caucuses may have hit a new low -- or high, depending on your point of view -- when Fox News personality Alan Colmes on Monday was smacked down as “contemptible” after saying Republican candidate Rick Santorum was “crazy" for the way he dealt with his son’s death 16 years ago.

During a Fox News segment about Santorum’s sudden surge in popularity, Colmes, a liberal commentator on the cable network, said: "Once (voters) get a load of some of the crazy things he’s said and done, like taking his two-hour-old baby who died right after childbirth home and played with it for a couple of hours so his other children would know that the child was real…"

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That’s as far as Colmes got on his first crack at his answer before guest Rich Lowry, editor of National Review, cut him off.

“That’s a cheap shot, Alan,” an incensed Lowry begins. “To say it’s ‘crazy,' something that’s that personal and harmful as losing a child, and to mock it, to mock him like that, is really beyond the pale and beneath you.”

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Colmes chastises Lowry for interrupting him, then leans back in his chair and folds his arms in disgust at Lowry’s alleged, continued rudeness.

“I’m interrupting because what you’re saying is contemptible,” says Lowry. “They lost a child, Alan. That’s very serious, and it’s not something you should be mocking on national TV.”

Colmes, though, doubles down on his point:

“I’m not mocking the losing of the child, but what I’m saying is I think it shows a certain unusual attitude to take a two-hour baby home that died to play with his other children.”

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But Lowry interrupts again, and again. And even when the show’s host attempts to change the subject, Colmes goes back to his point about Santorum’s deceased baby and Lowry renews his attacks on Colmes.

"Some of the dastardly characters we have in the mainstream media are not going to go as low as you just have, Alan, and make fun of that incident," Lowry says.

The seven-minute segment was one of the more fiery moments in the coverage of the Iowa caucuses, a subject that is dominant on Fox News, CNN and MSNBC.

Santorum has rather suddenly become a contender in Iowa so was getting far more attention Monday than he was even a few days ago.

Santorum and his wife, Karen, lost their son Gabriel when he was two hours old in 1996. In her book, "Letters to Gabriel: The True Story of Gabriel Michael Santorum," Karen writes that the couple introduced the dead infant to their other children as “your brother Gabriel,” and returned the body to the hospital the next morning.

Related content:

• What to watch as Iowa gets ready to caucus
• Gingrich: Romney is lying to American people
• Follow us on Twitter

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Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney (L) and former speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, speak during the ABC News GOP Presidential debate on the campus of Drake University on December 10, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa.

Onetime Republican presidential frontrunner Newt Gingrich called on campaign rival Mitt Romney Tuesday to "just level with the American people" about his moderate political views.

Asked point-blank in a nationally broadcast network interview if he was calling the former Massachusetts governor "a liar," the former House speaker replied, "Yes."

In the interview on CBS's "The Early Show," Gingrich declined to predict he'd win Tuesday night's Iowa caucuses, but said "I don't think anybody knows who's going to get what right now." He said "I think anybody can come in first" because of a large number of Iowa voters who remained undecided on the day of the caucuses.

Of Romney, Gingrich was asked about previous statements he'd made accusing his opponent of lying. Gingrich assailed Romney for negative television ads that have hurt his standing in the polls, saying Romney has been disingenuous about large sums of money that a Super PAC has been spending on his behalf for the attack commercials.

"I just think he ought to be honest with the American people and try to win as the real Mitt Romney," Gingrich said. "He ought to be candid and I don't think he's been candid."

But when asked if he could support Romney if he became the party's nominee and runs against President Barack Obama, Gingrich answered affirmatively. "He would be much less destructive than Barack Obama," he said. "If you think Barack Obama is someone who is not a risk to the country's future, then that's somebody to vote for."

"I wish Mitt would just level with the American people and be who he really is and let's have a debate between a Massachusetts moderate and a real conservative," Gingrich said.

Briefly the frontrunner, Gingrich hoped for a respectable showing in the caucuses after being pounded by millions of dollars in attack ads.

The former House speaker was set to make an 11th-hour push for support as his campaign bus rumbles through eastern Iowa. He is scheduled to hold events in Muscatine and Burlington before he personally makes his case to a caucus gathering in Cedar Falls.

Gingrich rallied supporters in Davenport Monday night, urging them to help him pull off "one of the great upsets in the history of the Iowa caucuses." Earlier in the day he had all but conceded defeat, saying he didn't "expect to win."

Still, he is setting his sights on New Hampshire and South Carolina, where he pledged to wage a more aggressive effort to draw contrasts with Republican rival Mitt Romney, whom he has labeled a "Massachusetts moderate."

After emerging as a top GOP contender in early December, Gingrich saw his support falter as he was hit with a wave of tough ads painting him as an ethically-challenged Washington insider.

The ex-Georgia congressman has tried to cast himself as the conservative heir to former President Ronald Reagan, touting a supply-side economic plan of tax cuts and fewer regulations. But he has struggled to stay on message, blasting some of his GOP opponents even as he promised to wage a positive campaign.

"I believe I am the only person who has the range of experience necessary to fundamentally get this country back on the right track," he said.

For conservative Republican voters who can’t accept Ron Paul’s bring-the-troops-home foreign policy, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum seems to be emerging as the best alternative to Mitt Romney.

Saturday’s Des Moines Register poll showed Santorum with 15 percent of likely caucus goers supporting him, up from 6 percent in late November.

Four weeks ago, few people were paying close attention to Santorum. But now, with victory in the Iowa caucuses, or a strong second, seeming to be within Santorum’s reach, Republicans are digging into his record to assess how conservative he really was during his 16 years in Congress.

Best known for his outspoken stands on social issues, Santorum led the fight for a ban on the procedure known as partial birth abortion, a ban that President Bill Clinton repeatedly vetoed, but was signed into law by President George W. Bush and upheld by the Supreme Court in 2007.

Santorum also was the leader of the 2004 effort to amend the Constitution to allow states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states and to define marriage in federal law solely as the traditional man-woman union.

He got credit for his skillful Senate floor management of the 1996 welfare reform bill, which Clinton ultimately signed after vetoing an earlier version.

On gun owners’ rights, Santorum voted against extending the ban on so-called “assault weapons” and against the 1993 Brady bill which imposed a waiting period before the purchase of a handgun and required criminal background checks on gun purchasers.

In line with Republican tax-cutting orthodoxy, he voted for the income tax reductions which Bush proposed in 2001 and 2003 and voted to abolish the estate tax in 2002.

Santorum’s career rating from the American Conservative Union, based on dozens of roll call votes during his 16 years in Congress, was 88 out of 100, not quite as conservative as that of Ron Paul or Jim DeMint of South Carolina, for instance, but still ranking Santorum as one of most conservative Republicans in Congress.

Santorum told NBC’s Savannah Guthrie last week, “I've voted toughly over the years to cut spending and to rein in entitlements. I've led on those things.”

But there’s at least one blemish on Santorum’s conservative record: his vote for the Medicare prescription drug entitlement in 2003 -- the biggest expansion of the program since it was created in 1965 and a bill that the Congressional Budget Office said would add nearly $400 billion to cumulative budget deficits over the first ten years after its enactment.

Fiscal conservatives such as Paul, DeMint and Santorum’s fellow Pennsylvanian Pat Toomey voted against the Medicare prescription drug bill, as did Sen. John McCain of Arizona.

McCain made the case against the Medicare prescription drug bill: “Adding a new unfunded entitlement to a system that is already financially insolvent is so grossly irresponsible that it ought to outrage every fiscal conservative.”

But on the Senate floor right before the prescription drug entitlement was approved, Santorum explained his support for it: “I say to my conservative friends who are expressing concern about this bill, the most important thing in this bill, from my perspective, for conservatives is this plan allows for health savings accounts” -- which are tax-free accounts people can use to set aside money for medical expenses.

“Fundamentally, what health savings accounts will do is eventually change Medicare -- not today, not even five or 10 years from now, but over the long term, once health savings accounts become what I believe they will become, which is the method of choice that the vast majority of people in this country will do in the private sector,” he said. “This will be a very popular plan in which millions of Americans will participate, and it will fundamentally change the insurance market in this country.”

Ten years later, Santorum’s prediction has not come to pass. Most Medicare enrollees continue to choose traditional fee-for-service Medicare, and in the under-65 population, health savings accounts are used by only a few million people.

In its assessment of Santorum’s congressional career, the conservative advocacy group, The Club for Growth gave him high marks for supporting tax cuts and welfare reform but criticized him as “a prolific supporter of earmarks, having requested billions of dollars for pork projects in Pennsylvania while he was in Congress.” The Club for Growth also slammed him for voting against the North American Free Trade Agreement and for co-sponsoring a bill to impose tariffs on steel imports.

On the campaign trial in Iowa, Santorum has faced a few critical questions not on these votes but on his long association with Arlen Specter, Pennsylvania’s long-serving senior Republican senator, who switched parties in 2009 but lost the 2010 Democratic Senate primary to Joe Sestak

 Terry Madonna, the veteran Pennsylvania pollster and analyst at Franklin and Marshall College, said the Santorum-Specter partnership “wasn’t a bosom buddy relationship, but they developed a modus vivendi for how they’d operate. Specter stayed out of Republican politics in the state and let Santorum be the major domo.”

Although ideologically opposed on issues such as abortion and gay rights, the two men developed a pragmatic partnership. Madonna notes that Specter lent Santorum his political staff in eastern Pennsylvania in 1994 when Santorum ran for the Senate and they even shared the same campaign manager – Pat Meehan, who is now a Republican congressman in Pennsylvania. Santorum endorsed Specter’s brief bid for the 1996 GOP presidential nomination.

And Santorum helped bolster Specter in the wake of the 2004 election when conservatives tried to topple Specter from the chairmanship of the Judiciary Committee after he warned Bush to not nominate anyone to the Supreme Court who might try to overturn the Roe v. Wade abortion decision.

“Sen. Santorum has been enormously helpful,” Specter said during that chairmanship fight. “He’s gone above and beyond the call of duty. My number one priority in the next two years is to reelect Sen. Santorum.”

It didn’t work out that way: Santorum lost his Senate seat in 2006. But now – in a most unlikely comeback, Santorum is poised to be the conservatives’ man of the moment in Iowa.

BEDFORD, NH -- As Rick Santorum is surging toward a strong finish in Iowa, his campaign believes he is well positioned for a better-than-expected performance in the next contest: the New Hampshire primary.

"We are ready," Santorum state director Nick Pappas told NBC News. "We are not going to be behind the eight ball on this one. It's just a matter of time, we are definitely prepared for what is coming."

Even before he began to rise in the Iowa polls, Santorum was bullish on his chances in the Granite State, where he plans to campaign immediately after the Jan. 3 caucuses. "I guess I feel very confident we are going to do well here, but we're just taking it a day at a time and working hard at it," he told NBC News in Merrimack, back in early December.

Santorum's strategy here is nearly identical to his Iowa ground game: old school retail politics that is all about frequency. His events, like in Iowa, often only garner a handful voters each (and sometimes just this NBC News reporter). But Santorum has built an organization that his campaign thinks will be able to wage a noble fight in the final days ahead of the first-in-the-nation primary.

For starters, Santorum's national campaign director, Mike Biundo, is a New Hampshire political expert who has been involved in local politics for the better part of 20 years. He has directed successful mayoral and congressional campaigns for Rep. Frank Guinta (R-NH). Chosen early on to head up Santorum's New Hampshire political action committee, Biundo is also no stranger to presidential campaigns; he worked for Tommy Thompson in 2000 and helped drive Pat Buchanan to a New Hampshire primary victory in 1996.

In October, when Biundo was elevated to national political director and then national campaign manager, it was clear New Hampshire would remain a key state for the shoe-string campaign, and Biundo would help Santorum learn from others' mistakes.

"We talked about what happened with Huckabee in New Hampshire in 2008," Biundo told NBC News, recalling his first conversation with Santorum in December of 2010. "Huckabee was up coming into New Hampshire but without spending a lot of time or groundwork here. So we knew, to bring momentum to South Carolina, we had to put together a very good organization in New Hampshire early -- so if Iowa did what we thought, we would come into New Hampshire with something work with."

"New Hampshire strategy starts with hard work and it can't happen in a week," Biundo added.

The efforts has produced six-person staff that looks very much like the "little engine that could" that Santorum often refers to in Iowa. A small army of faithful volunteers manage daily responsibilities and have put out more campaign road-side signs than any campaign except Mitt Romney. If signs indicated campaign strength, Santorum would place a close second.  The navy blue signs dotted with a white eagle are in every corner of the state.

In addition, Santorum has a modest -- yet pronounced -- base of conservative support. Today, five more state representatives endorsed him, adding to a list that now totals 22. Despite his low polling, Santorum managed to snag rare state senator and county sheriff endorsements, the latter from the same county where Mitt Romney owns a vacation home.

Santorum also hopes to be on the air soon with television and radio ads. He has not aired any spots to date with little money to spare.

On the issues, Santorum's socially conservative credentials have been an unlikely advantage in a state whose Republicans are considered more moderate than those in Iowa. Conservative activists like Karen Testerman -- who previously served Michele Bachmann as a New Hampshire adviser -- have signed on because of his unabashed support of traditional family structures and anti-abortion rights position.

"Voters realize these issues are tied into their pocketbook," state director Pappas said. "Especially abortion, Planned Parenthood taking tax dollars, and broken families. Social issues are attached to the pocket book."

Lastly, Santorum has been a familiar face in New Hampshire, having campaigned in the state as much as Mitt Romney  has, and being second only to Jon Huntsman (who nowadays doesn't campaign anywhere else). And when he's on the ground here, he draws attention to his northeast roots, saying that his home of Pennsylvania "looks a whole lot like Manchester and Nashua."

Pappas, the New Hampshire director, says they aim to lock down 70 to 80% of voters at every event, big or (mostly) small. And Santorum has no problem doing campaign stops with attendees counted on one hand. In the far reaches of north country, Santorum told NBC News he hopes the personal touch will be remembered when voters walk into the voting booth January 10.

Still, Santorum has an enormous uphill battle to do well in New Hampshire. In addition to receiving just single digits in the latest Suffolk/7News poll, the survey finds him with a net-negative image.

"They have the core of a very solid foundation here because they've worked hard over the past year. But ... the big challenge is his image ratings are poor. He is upside down in his favorability ratings, and probably over 80% of the state already has an opinion of him," explained Rich Killion, an unaffiliated political consultant who formerly supported Tim Pawlenty.

Killion expects to see a bump from Santorum's Iowa performance, but believes it's unlikely the candidate can pull off a miraculous victory. National campaign manager Biundo is realistic but hopeful.

"We just have to do better than people expect here, and I think we'll be able to do that," said Biundo.

As for Santorum himself, Biundo says the former two-term Pennsylvania senator believes in his on-the-ground model more than ever and refuses to be anything but positive in the face of an enormous Romney campaign that has largely dominated the state.

"When Iowa ended up lighting the fire, we knew there would be plenty of kindle in New Hampshire to build on the momentum," Biundo said.

DES MOINES, Iowa -- At a Des Moines hotel rally this morning with son Rand at his side, Ron Paul says enthusiasm for his limited government message is building ahead of tomorrow's caucus, while warning that a vote for his rivals tomorrow would be a vote for the "status quo."

"Believe me, you don't have to choose another candidate because the others represent the status quo," Paul explained in a stop here after having taken the weekend off to spend the New Year's holiday with family in Texas. "Variations of the status quo, but they're not talking about a foreign policy to defend America, they're talking about mischief around the world and policing the world."

A partition had to be opened by hotel staff inside the Marriott ballroom to make room for a large and vocal crowd, who greeted Paul with chants and cheers of support. A large media presence was also on hand, with more than a dozen still photographers snapping away at the base of Paul's podium.

"Today we're moving in the wrong direction, but the American people are stirring, this is what this campaign has been all about -- this is what the vote is about tomorrow, are we sick and tired of the expansion of government?" the congressman asked the crowd. "The endless spending and the deficit, doing the things they weren't supposed to do and forgetting about doing the things they should be doing?"

"The next generation is here today, that is why we have to change things today and bring back the traditions of America which means liberty, peace and prosperity," Paul said, to applause.

His son, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, warmed up the audience promising a Iowa victory. He echoed his father's individual liberties and small government message asking, "anybody here want government to mind their OWN business?!"

Andrew Burton / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate and former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich speaks at the Wakonda Club on December 30, 2011 in Des Moines, Iowa. The GOP presidential contenders are crisscrossing Iowa in the final stretch of campaigning in the state before the January 3rd caucus, the first test the candidates must face before becoming the Republican presidential nominee.

INDEPENDENCE, Iowa -- Newt Gingrich said Monday that he doesn't expect to win tomorrow's Iowa caucuses in a bow this morning to his sinking poll numbers in the state.

The former House Speaker, who led in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers as recently as early December, sought to lower expectations for his showing tomorrow night.

"I don't think I'm going to win," Gingrich told reporters during a press availability. "If you look at the numbers, that volume of negativity has done enough damage. But on the other hand, if the Des Moines Register was right and 41 percent [are] potentially undecided, who knows what's going to happen."

"Whatever I do tomorrow night will be a victory because I'm still standing," he added, noting that this is the second time he has had to fight after many political observers had written off Gingrich's campaign last summer after the majority of his staff quit

Gingrich has been pummeled by negative ads over the past month that have taken a toll on his political fortunes in Iowa. The NBC Newst-Marist poll released on Friday found that he had slid to fifth place among likely caucus-goers.

As for how badly he wanted to win, Gingrich said his desire to come out on top tomorrow didn't surpass personal items like his family.

"No, of course I don't want it more than anything," he said.

Gingrich also announced that he will be caucusing tomorrow night at the Blackhawk County caucus super site, a popular destination for caucus-goers where thousands of Iowans are expected to be in attendance. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who was born in nearby Waterloo, will also be speaking at that particular caucus site, as will Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

INDEPENDENCE, Iowa -- Newt Gingrich said Monday that he doesn't expect to win tomorrow's Iowa caucuses in a bow to his sinking poll numbers in the state.

The former House Speaker, who led in polls of likely Iowa caucus-goers as recently as early December, sought to lower expectations for his showing tomorrow night.

"I don't think I'm going to win," Gingrich told reporters during a press availability. "If you look at the numbers, that volume of negativity has done enough damage. But on the other hand, if the Des Moines Register was right and 41 percent [are] potentially undecided, who knows what's going to happen."

"Whatever I do tomorrow night will be a victory because I'm still standing," he added, noting that this is the second time he has had to fight after many political observers had written off Gingrich's campaign last summer after the majority of his staff quit

Gingrich has been pummeled by negative ads over the past month that have taken a toll on his political fortunes in Iowa. The NBC Newst-Marist poll released on Friday found that he had slid to fifth place among likely caucus-goers.

As for how badly he wanted to win, Gingrich said his desire to come out on top tomorrow didn't surpass personal items like his family.

"No, of course I don't want it more than anything," he said.

Gingrich also announced that he will be caucusing tomorrow night at the Blackhawk County caucus super site, a popular destination for caucus-goers where thousands of Iowans are expected to be in attendance. Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, who was born in nearby Waterloo, will also be speaking at that particular caucus site, as will Texas Gov. Rick Perry.

DES MOINES, IA -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry is reminding Iowa voters that Rick Santorum lost his last statewide contest by an embarrassing double-digit margin, as well as arguing that the former Pennsylvania senator lacks the national organization to win the GOP primary in 2012.

"His ... argument is 'I'm the guy that can win,'" Perry said of Santorum. "He got beat by 18 [percentage] points his last race. I mean this guy has proven that he can't win races when it matters against a liberal Democrat."

Perry, who himself has never lost an election, told NBC's Chuck Todd in an interview on MSNBC's "Daily Rundown" that Santorum would also be hurt by his past endorsement of party-switcher Arlen Specter.

"That's a movement conservative? I don't think so" Perry said.

The Texas governor argues that he is the only candidate who can compete with Mitt Romney and Ron Paul in a long nominating process.

"I'm the only one of the social conservatives and the fiscal conservatives that are running that actually has the ability to raise the money, to have the organization, to run though and finish the primary process," he said. "Santorum and Bachmann don't."

Perry said his resources will make him competitive in Nevada, Florida, and his home state of Texas.

"At the end of the day, we have the national organization and fundraising capabilities to run through this thing," he said. 

The GOP race in Iowa increasingly looks like Romney vs. Santorum… Inauthentic conservative vs. Washington insider… Remembering the Oct. 18 debate exchange between Romney and Santorum… Why Santorum is surging… Team Obama doesn’t think Santorum can do the distance… Second-guessing Paul’s weekend in Texas… And Romney still up in New Hampshire in new poll.

Read Monday's original First Thoughts: Romney vs. Santorum 

DES MOINES, IA – With one day to go before the Iowa caucuses, the Republican presidential contest looks increasingly like a battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. And yesterday, the two men began to draw contrasts with each other, albeit mildly. Campaigning in Atlantic, Romney opened the same playbook he used against Newt Gingrich -- portraying the former Pennsylvania senator as a Washington insider. “Like Speaker Gingrich, Sen. Santorum has spent his career in government, in Washington,” Romney said yesterday, per NBC’s Garrett Haake. “Nothing wrong with that, but it is a very different background than I have.” Romney also made this playful dig at Santorum. “Sen. Santorum was kind enough to endorse me last time around. I appreciate that.” (On “Meet the Press” yesterday, Santorum responded that his ’08 endorsement of Romney was “the best chance to stop John McCain… It's not like I was an early supporter of Romney. I endorsed him actually seven days before he dropped out of the race.”

*** Inauthentic conservative vs. Washington insider: For his part, Santorum cast Romney as an unreliable conservative. While acknowledging on “Meet the Press” that every GOP presidential candidate is more conservative than President Obama, Santorum said, “The question is: Are those values ones that you can trust when they become president of the United States? Is it someone who you know is going to fight not just for certainly things, but for the entire Republican platform?” Later in the day, in Sioux City, Santorum took this implicit shot at Romney. “Don’t put forward somebody who isn’t good enough to do what’s necessary to change this country,” he said, according to the New York Times. “Put forward someone that you know has the vision, the trust, the authenticity, the background, the record to make that happen.”

*** Remembering their Oct. 18 debate exchange: If the race turns into Romney vs. Santorum (along with Paul), it’s worth remembering the former Massachusetts governor and former Pennsylvania senator sparring over health care at the feisty Oct. 18 debate in Las Vegas -- the same debate where Romney put his hand on Rick Perry. Santorum said, “You just don't have credibility, Mitt, when it comes to repealing ‘Obamacare.’ Your plan was the basis for ‘Obamacare.’ Your consultants helped Obama craft Obamacare. And to say that you're going to repeal it, you have no track record on that -- that we can trust you that you're going to do that.” Later in the exchange, Romney said, “Rick, you had your chance. Let me speak.” Santorum fired back, “You can’t change the facts.” Romney: “Rick, you had your chance. Let me speak.” Santorum: “You’re out of time. You’re out of time.” Is this possibly a preview for the next month?

*** Why Santorum’s surging: If you’re looking for a reason why Rick Santorum is surging, look no further than the enthusiasm that greeted him at two events yesterday in the most conservative part of the state, as one of us observed first hand. More than 150 people packed into a coffee house in Sioux City, and then about 200 people packed into a bank basement in Orange City, home to a significant share of the religious voters that propelled Mike Huckabee to victory in 2008. And there were very few undecideds in these crowds -- they were with Santorum. Many had liked Michele Bachmann, even Newt Gingrich. But they made up their minds in the past week to go with Santorum, who, they said, has "conservative convictions," is a "hard worker," was more electable, and didn't have the "baggage." If, in fact, Santorum has locked up evangelical voters, he stands a good chance of winning Iowa here tomorrow night.

*** Team Obama doesn’t think Santorum can go the distance (or even survive into next month): However, in chatting with some of the Team Obama folks who have come here to Des Moines, they don’t believe that Santorum has the ability to go toe to toe with Romney -- the same way that Newt Gingrich or Rick Perry potentially could. Even if Santorum wins Iowa tomorrow, it’s quite likely that Romney -- with his resources -- can lap the former Pennsylvania senator by the end of the month. On one hand, they are happy Romney still has base problems and hasn't used his time in Iowa to fix them. On the other hand, they are disappointed that it's Santorum and not Newt or Perry who is rising. After all, Team Obama has dreamed about Romney having to struggle and keep courting the right for the next six MONTHS, not six WEEKS.

*** Second-guessing Paul’s weekend in Texas: If Ron Paul ends up out of first and second -- and instead finishes third in Iowa -- the Paul supporters might second-guess why Paul was back home in Texas over the weekend rather than campaigning in Iowa. Just some food for thought…

*** On Perry, Gingrich, and Bachmann: As for the other candidates, Perry was on “TODAY” this morning, accusing Santorum of voting to raise the debt ceiling eight times and calling him a “serial earmarker.” Then, in an interview that will air on MSNBC’s “Daily Rundown” later this morning, Perry questioned whether Santorum had the resources to wage a successful campaign against Romney. Meanwhile, per NBC’s Alex Moe, Gingrich yesterday claimed that he had been “Romney-boated” -- a variation to the phrase “Swift-boated.” And yesterday in Iowa, Bachmann delivered a narrative of her coming into her Christian faith to about 100 people at Jubilee Family Church in Oskaloosa, NBC’s Jamie Novogrod reports.

*** Matthews and Gingrich: Also yesterday, MSNBC’s Chris Matthews asked Gingrich some questions while the former speaker was campaigning in Iowa. On the pro-Romney Super PAC ads hitting him, Gingrich told Matthews: “So part of the question you have to ask yourself is, he's assuming the American people are stupid. I don't think the American people are stupid. I am sure…” Matthews: “But the polls are responding, the polls are reacting…” Gingrich: “I am sure within a few weeks every American will know this is his PAC with his staff.” Be sure to watch MSNBC’s “Hardball” for all of Gingrich’s answers.

*** Poll: Romney still up in NH: Turning from the race in Iowa to next week’s contest in New Hampshire, NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reports that Romney maintains his commanding lead in the Granite State, according to a new Suffolk poll. The survey has Romney at 41% among likely Republican voters -- followed by Paul at 15%, Gingrich at 11%, and Huntsman at 9%. Also, per a campaign press release this morning, Santorum is heading to New Hampshire the day after the caucuses, while Bachmann has decided to travel straight to South Carolina.

*** White House vs. Congress: Just asking, but did the Obama White House go a bit too far in telling reporters in Hawaii that it would contrast itself with Congress in 2012? For one thing, it produced this headline in the New York Times: “Obama to Turn Up Attacks on Congress in Campaign.” Is that what the White House really wants voters to see? Second, there’s no doubt the White House wants to distance itself -- and contrast itself -- from Congress. So why say it?

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 1 day
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 8 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 19 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 29 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 33 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 64 days
Countdown to Election Day: 311 days

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 Updated at 9:05a.m. ET:

WATERLOO, Iowa -- On the first day of the New Year, Newt Gingrich admitted to having been “Romney-boated” with the immense amount of negative ads being run against him, vowing that his campaign will run more contrast ads going forward.

Mitt Romney “didn't get rid of me, he just slowed me down,” Gingrich told reporters in Marshalltown, Iowa, Sunday afternoon. Asked whether he felt like he had been “swift-boated” by the barrage of ads run against him in recent weeks, Gingrich responded, “I feel Romney-boated” – a reference to the outside advertising campaign launched against Democratic nominee John Kerry in 2004.

The former House Speaker even hinted that Romney was trying to buy the election.

“He would buy an election if he could,” Gingrich told NBC News. But he wouldn’t directly say Romney was attempting to buy the 2012 election. “Well I dunno, $3.5 million in negative ads, you tell me,” Gingrich continued. 

Romney, campaigning on the opposite side of the Hawkeye State Sunday, pushed back against these allegations from the Speaker. 

“Speaker Gingrich I think announced that he raised $10 million this quarter and he ought to be proud of that. We’re working hard to raise funds, as well, this is an election,” Romney said in Atlantic, Iowa. “However, that’s not being driven by money raised, its being driven by message connection with the voters, debate and um experience and I think that those are the features that are driving the campaign so far and I think they probably will be through the entire process.”

Gingrich told reporters his campaign would be increasing the number of positive yet contrast ads on television and radio moving ahead to better combat the negative attacks from his GOP rivals.

“If somebody spends $3.5 million lying about you, you have some obligation to come back and set the record straight,” the Speaker said after his campaign heavily underestimated the damage these ads could do.

The negative attacks have worked here in the first-in-the-nation caucus state: Gingrich dropped from first place in the Des Moines Register’s early December poll to fourth place in Saturday’s DMR poll. Romney now leads in Iowa, according to the new poll, with Ron Paul and Rick Santorum finishing ahead of Gingrich. 

Gingrich told the standing-room only crowd inside LJs Neighborhood Bar and Grill here in Waterloo that not answering these negative ads was his biggest weakness. 

“I am too reasonable and I should have responded to the negative ads two weeks earlier,” Gingrich said after an interesting exchange between himself and wife, Callista, when the Speaker was asked about his biggest weakness.

The crowd began to laugh after Gingrich and Callista looked at one another with smiles about Newt’s biggest weakness. “Go ahead,” Callista told him as many in the audience expected him to perhaps mention his infidelities years ago. Rather, Gingrich stayed the course and linked his weakness answer back to the negative ads.

The Speaker’s ‘Jobs and Growth Bus Tour’ continues Monday with four stops in Eastern Iowa on caucus eve.

NBC’s Garrett Haake contributed to this report.

Des Moines - As Republican candidates crisscross Iowa seeking last-minute support, the Democratic Party is ignoring the field and focusing on front-runner Mitt Romney.

Today in a Des Moines press conference the DNC turned to a former factory worker who lost his job in the 1990’s to attack what it calls Mitt Romney “job killing record” in the private sector.

Randy Johnson, a former union official at an Indiana paper plant that Bain Capital purchased and then sold after labor discussions broke down in 1995 said of Romney, “I really feel that he didn’t care about the workers.”

Johnson said he’s telling his story now to let voters decide for themselves whether Romney should be president.

Now employed by the United Steelworkers Union in Pittsburgh, Johnson admitted Bain likely acted legally in its dealings with Ampad, but he’s accusing Romney of getting rich at the expense of workers.

“They let Ampad go bankrupt and they made 100 million…tell me there’s nothing wrong with that.”

This is not the first time Johnson’s story has been used as a political weapon against Mitt Romney. In 1994 Democrats used Johnson’s story in television ads attacking Romney during his campaign against then incumbent Sen. Edward Kennedy.

Romney’s 14-year tenure at Bain has been a frequent target of attack from the Obama re-election team and his Republican rivals.

Romney claims during his time at the firm Bain created a net total of 100,000 jobs, but he’s also acknowledged not all of the investments have worked out.

“We invested in over 100 different businesses,” he said last month on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,”  “and in those businesses, many were successful, added lots and lots of jobs. Some were not successful. That is the nature of free enterprise.”

On the campaign trail Romney argues that private sector experience is what’s needed to turn around the economy.

Breaking down the Des Moines Register poll… How Santorum and Romney could end up winning Tuesday’s caucuses… Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press”… Paul’s appearance on CNN… The campaigning continues, even on New Year’s Day… And DNC tries to seize on the Bain Capital issue.

DES MOINES, IA -- The Des Moines Register’s poll last night became the third-straight survey in the past week to show the same storylines in the GOP presidential contest in Iowa -- Mitt Romney in the lead (but not above 25%), Ron Paul a close second, and Rick Santorum surging in third place. The numbers from the poll conducted Dec. 27-30 of 602 likely caucus-goers: Romney 24%, Paul 22%, Santorum 15%, Gingrich 12%, Perry 11%, and Bachmann 7%. But get this about Santorum’s surge: In the Des Moines Register’s final two days in the field, he jumped into second place and was running neck and neck with Romney. “[Santorum] averaged 10 points after the first two nights of polling, but doubled that during the second two nights. Looking just at the final day of polling, he was just one point down from Romney’s 23 percent on Friday.”

*** How Santorum and Romney can win: Bottom line: You can see how Santorum might be able to win this thing, especially if Perry and Gingrich supporters decide to go with the former Pennsylvania senator. What’s more, Santorum appears to have crossed a viability threshold, with just 6% of likely caucus-goers in the poll finding him the least electable in a general election. Indeed, Santorum’s closing TV ad in Iowa plays up his electability, calling him the “trusted conservative who gives us the best chance to take back America.” On the other hand, you once again see how Romney can win the Iowa caucuses -- with 25% or less -- because the conservative vote gets divided up.

*** Other numbers in the poll: 51% of likely caucus-goers surveyed in the poll said their minds were made up, while 41% said they could still be persuaded. Also, Gingrich was seen as the most knowledgeable (41% said that) and Bachmann the least knowledgeable (26%); Ron Paul was the most consistent (35%), and Gingrich and Romney the least consistent (36% and 24%, respectively); Romney the most electable in a general election (48%), Paul and Bachmann the least electable (29% and 28%); and Bachmann, Paul, and Santorum the best able to relate to Iowans (all tied at 20%), and Romney and Gingrich the least able to relate to Iowans (26% each).

*** Santorum on “Meet the Press”: One of the more fascinating parts of Rick Santorum’s appearance on “Meet the Press” this morning was his talk about having to accept compromise -- for example on abortion -- to get where you want to go. “I supported the Partial Birth Abortion Ban Act," he said. "Now does that ban all abortions? No. But it moves the country in the right direction. And so what I've said in the past consistently is I'll support laws that move the ball forward.” He went on to say, “Of course my background is to find compromise. That's what you have to do in order to get things done. You don't compromise on your principles.” The word “compromise” might not sit well with some conservatives; then again, it highlights a sense of pragmatism not often associated with Santorum. NBC’s David Gregory also asked Santorum about his endorsement for Romney in 2008 and what has changed since then. His answer: “Well, what changed was who he's running against... I made the political judgment, right or wrong, that the best chance to stop John McCain, which was what my concern was, I had served 12 years with John McCain.”

*** Paul talks Civil Rights Act, Iran, and third-party bid: Meanwhile, on CNN this morning, Paul was asked about his opposition to the 1964 Civil Rights Act. He said the country was better off without Jim Crow laws, but said the Civil Rights Act “destroyed the principle of private property and private choices.” He added that it creates the slippery slope of the government coming into people’s bedrooms. “It is the government that causes so much of the racial tensions,” he said. On Iran and it acquiring nuclear weapons: “I don’t want them to have a weapon… We just need to be more cautious… We don’t need a war in Iran carelessly.” And Paul once again didn’t rule out a third-party presidential bid, if he doesn’t become the GOP nominee. “I don’t like absolutes,” he said. “I have no plans on doing it.” Paul added, “On Tuesday, we’ll find out a lot more on the future of this election.” *** EDITOR'S NOTE *** This item mistakenly said earlier today that Paul had said the country was better "with" Jim Crow laws. That was a typo and has since been fixed. He said that the country was better off "without" Jim Crow laws.

*** On the trail: With two days until the caucuses, all of today’s New Year’s Day activity is in Iowa: Bachmann attends church in Oskaloosa… Gingrich holds events in Ames, Marshalltown, and Waterloo… Perry attends church in West Des Moines… Romney stumps in Atlantic and Council Bluffs… And Santorum holds rallies in Sioux City and Rock Rapids… Meanwhile, Jon Huntsman continues to campaign in New Hampshire… And Ron Paul, at home in Texas, is off the campaign trail.

*** DNC seizes on Bain: Also in Des Moines, IA today at 4:00 pm ET, the DNC is holding a press conference with a worker -- Randy Johnson -- who was laid off from his job at an American Pad and Paper plant in Indiana that Romney’s Bain Capital took over in 1992.

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 2 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 9 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 20 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 30 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 34 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 65 days
Countdown to Election Day: 312 days

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