Pablo Martinez Monsivais / AP

President Barack Obama leads guests to a toast as he hosts a dinner for members of the U.S. military who served in Iraq in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Feb., 29, 2012.

Joshua Roberts / Reuters

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks during a dinner on Wednesday night.

Slideshow: US troops leave Iraq

See images from the U.S. withdraw from Iraq at the end of 2010 and 2011.

Launch slideshow

AP reports: The president who opposed the Iraq war from its outset thanked those who fought its battles by sitting down to a candlelit meal with a small cross section of the million-plus who served there over the past nine years.

Looking out over a sea of dress uniforms sparkling with medals attesting to years of wartime strife, Obama told the gathering: "In a culture that celebrates fame and fortune, yours are not necessarily household names. You are something more: the patriots who served in our name. And after nearly nine years in Iraq, tonight is an opportunity to express our gratitude and to say once more, welcome home."

Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX), chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, told NBC that he was caught off guard by Sen. Olympia Snowe's retirement announcement yesterday, but said he understands her decision.

He is now searching for a GOP candidate ahead of the March 15 filing deadline in Maine.

"I was very surprised," Cornyn said, "because up until yesterday afternoon, mid-afternoon, she gave every indication that she was running for re-election. But obviously after much thought and soul-searching decided that she would retire."

He added, "As you know, she's had a long run in public life at the state legislative level and also in the House and now in the Senate. So while I'm disappointed because I think she's been a very solid member of the Senate and our Congress, its understandable."

Cornyn conceded that a once-safe seat in Maine will now be a battle for Republicans given the state's independent nature and Democratic leanings in presidential elections. But he said he still believes the GOP can win. 

"I don't really get this idea that Republicans can't run and win in Maine, because demonstrably, they can," he said noting that Paul LePage, a Tea Party Republican, won as governor in 2010 -- and Republicans Snowe and Susan Collins hold the U.S. Senate seats.

Cornyn rejected the scenario that Republicans may need to win as many as six seats or more to take back the Senate, if they were to lose Maine, Sen. Scott Brown's seat in Massachusetts, or the open toss-up race in Nevada.

So who will jump in now for Maine? Cornyn said he doesn't have anyone "in" yet, but he is burning up the phones and sending emails.

"Republicans who come from Maine have a more moderate appeal than someone in Texas," said the Texas senator. "That shouldn't be surprising."

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, the man who would set the agenda as majority leader if Republicans take back the House, said today at a news conference with House Speaker John Boehner, that the Republicans were "surprised and disappointed" by Snowe's decision, noting that he's confident she would have been re-elected comfortably.

"We hate to lose Sen. Snowe," McConnell said. "She's been an extraordinarily effective member, been right in the middle of bipartisan legislation over the years. I think she would have been re-elected comfortably. We were surprised obviously and disappointed, but, in the end, members in public life have to kind of make a decision about whether they want to continue, and she had a great run, and we wish her well. We're going to miss her."

And he likely hopes the GOP doesn't come up one race short of a majority.

Reversing course, former Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) announced today that he will, in fact, run for the open Senate seat in Nebraska. 

Sen. Ben Nelson (D) announced earlier this year that he would not seek reelection.

Nati Harnik / AP

Though Kerrey mentions his 'commitment' to Nebraska, Republicans will surely note that Kerrey, for the past decade, has lived in New York City, where he was president of The New School.

Here's Kerrey's statement:

"Doing things the conventional way has never been my strong suit. This afternoon, I will file to become a candidate for the United States Senate in Nebraska. I came to realize that my previous decision was the easy one, not the right one. My commitment to serve Nebraska and America, and to be part of the debate about the challenges we face was too strong to dismiss. My family supports this decision 100%. I look forward to seeing you in the coming weeks. We have a lot of work to do."

Though Kerrey mentions his "commitment" to Nebraska, Republicans will surely note that Kerrey, for the past decade, has lived in New York City, where he was president of The New School.

It's welcome news for Democrats, a day after they got a big target in Maine because of Sen. Olympia Snowe (R) announced she was not seeking reelection.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, at the ready with oppo research on Kerrey's record, dismissed Kerrey as a "liberal" who has lived in "Greenwich Village for so many years" and being "simply out-of-step with Nebraska."

"After making a backroom deal to get Nebraska’s senior senator to vote for ObamaCare, it appears Senate Democrat Leader Harry Reid has made a deal with an even more liberal Democrat Bob Kerrey," NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh said. “As Nebraskans reacquaint themselves with Kerrey they will quickly recognize that living in Greenwich Village for so many years tends to change a person. Whether it’s his support for cap-and-trade, his advocacy for a government-run health care system or his desire to raise taxes on Nebraska small businesses, Bob Kerrey is a loyal supporter of the Obama agenda and he’s simply out-of-step with Nebraska.”

Three weeks ago, Kerrey had announced he would not run. He said then:

"I have given the decision of becoming a candidate for the U.S. Senate very serious thought and prayer," Kerrey said in an email, per AP. "For many reasons I nearly said yes. In the end I choose to remain a private citizen. To those who urged me to do so, I am sorry, very sorry to have disappointed you. I hope you understand that I have chosen what I believe is best for my family and me."

If President Obama wins reelection, Republicans need to win a net of four seats to take control of the Senate. If a Republican wins the presidency, the GOP needs to pick up three.

Republicans are favored to win in North Dakota and would have been heavily favored in Nebraska to takeover seats currently held by Democrats. But the entry of Kerrey makes the race competitive and -- at least -- will be someplace Democrats hope Republicans will now have to spend some money and reduce their firepower elsewhere.

There are several toss-up states, for example, where control will likely rest, particularly -- Montana (D-Tester), Missouri (D-McCaskill), Virginia (D-Open), Nevada (R-Open), Massachusetts (R-Brown).

The favorite to win the GOP primary in Nebraska is Attorney General Jon Bruning, but he faces a primary, notably from state Treasurer Don Stenberg.

Kerrey served in the U.S. Senate from 1989 to 2000 and ran for president in 1992. It's not the first time Kerrey's name has come up for a Nebraska Senate seat and he declined.

But he has lived in New York City for the past decade, serving as president of The New School, far from his Nebraska roots. (He's currently President Emeritus at The New School.)

A new poll has found the president, here with Mrs. Obama in Washington in February, is popular among women voters.

President Barack Obama has the ladies on lock, according to a recent Associated Press-GfK poll.

The poll, conducted Feb. 16-20, found that female voters are more likely than men to credit the president for the economy’s slow but steady turnaround. Obama’s approval rating among women jumped to 53 percent, up ten percent from just a few months ago, the poll found.

High-profile political back-and-forth over such social issues as requiring insurance companies to cover contraception for employees of religious institutions may also be helping steer female voters Obama’s way, the poll found.

“Social issues tend to be very important to the bases — both conservative and liberal voters,” said Nathan Gonzales, deputy editor of The Rothenberg Political Report, a non-partisan publication based in Washington D.C. “It can be a rallying point and boost for voters on the far right and far left. Social issues also help generate money for campaigns.”

Women make up just over half of the electorate and this critical voting block helped Obama clinch a win over GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain in the 2008 elections.

Obama also “comes the closest to gender parity in terms of campaign cash,” according to an analysis of individual donations of $200 or more by the Center for Responsive Politics, which tracks the influence of money in politics.

The study found that 44 percent of the president’s campaign cash came from female donors, while 56 percent came from men.

Obama might be gaining ground with female voters, but Republican presidential hopefuls Rep. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich get male donors to open their wallets, the Center for Responsive Politics’ study found.

Paul racked in 83 percent of his campaign cash from men. Gingrich also fared well with guys, pulling in about 77 percent of donations from male donors, according to the report.

Republican frontrunners Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum didn’t fare too shabbily either with the guys. According to the report, Santorum pulled in a respectable 68 percent of such donations from men and Romney did even better, at 70 percent.

As for the GOPers’ ability to get the ladies to open their pocketbooks? Well, that’s a different matter.

Gingrich, Romney and Santorum get nearly a third of their cash from female donors, according to the report.

And apparent guy’s guy Ron Paul?

He pulls in a paltry 17 percent from the ladies.

More: Brian Williams and Jimmy Fallon get super freaky about Super PACs
Gingrich: I'm take an 'intelligent' gamble on Super Tuesday 
Rev. Franklin Graham issues apology over Obama faith comments 
White House hosts dinner for Iraq war vets: Enough of a tribute?

Today.com political contributor Halimah Abdullah is the site’s woman in Washington.

Republican presidential contender Ron Paul, an avowed opponent of the Federal Reserve System, had a chance to take on his nemesis Ben Bernanke Wednesday, and he made the most of it.

In a hearing of the House Financial Services Committee, Paul, R-Texas, pulled out a one-ounce silver coin to underscore his assertion that precious metals have held their value better than paper money.

In fact, our friends at Business Insider did some research that shows that silver prices have fluctuated widely over the past two decades. "While that ounce of silver has done better than the dollar over time, it's still no ringing endorsement for price stability," Business Insider concludes.

Here is the full exchange between Paul and Fed chief Bernanke:

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Chairman of the Rules Committee Rep. David Dreier (R-CA) announced on the House floor this morning that he is retiring.

Joshua Roberts / Getty Images

Rep. David Dreier, R-Calif., ranking member of the House Committee on Rules announced he will not run for reelection February 29, 2012.

This is another blow to Republicans, who just lost Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) yesterday to retirement. But the move wasn't unexpected. Unlike Snowe's retirment, Dreier's was one of the worst-kept secrets on the Hill. 

Dreier joins a handful of other Republicans from California who are retiring as a result of redistricting. Dreier's district went away as a result of redistricting.

While a handful of members, who are in similar situations, are running in neighboring districts, Dreier had few other options.

In his floor speech, he said he made the decision, because Americans are asking for change in Congress.

"We all know that this institution has an abysmally low approval rating," Dreier said, "and the American people are asking for change in Congress. And so, I'm announcing today that I will leave the congress at the end of this year."

Dreier was first elected to Congress in 1980.  Now in his 16th term, he was considered a top choice in 2005 to take the Majority Leader position, which was instead given to Roy Blunt reportedly because of Dreier's more moderate views. Dreier has been chairman of the House Rules Committee -- which regulates House floor proceedings, debates and votes -- since 1999.

Updated at 9:30 AM ET

Voters in Tuesday’s Michigan Republican primary were looking for a candidate who they thought could beat Barack Obama in November and they found him in Mitt Romney. The former Massachusetts governor won 61 percent of voters who said the candidate quality that mattered most was the ability to defeat Obama.

Overall, 53 percent of Michigan voters said Romney was the Republican candidate most likely to defeat Obama in November; only 26 percent thought former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum was most likely to beat Obama.

An overwhelming majority of voters in Michigan -- 55 percent -- said the economy was the issue that most mattered in deciding how they voted, and 47 percent of them voted for Romney, compared to 30 percent who voted for Santorum.

Although Santorum has a long record of opposition to abortion, that issue was the deciding one for only 14 percent of voters. Nearly four out of five anti-abortion voters backed Santorum.

Thirty-one percent of Tuesday’s voters in Michigan said someone in their household had lost their job or been laid off in the past three years: 42 percent of these voters favored Romney compared to 36 percent for Santorum.

Despite the fact that Michigan is home to the traditional Big Three automakers, 50 percent of Tuesday’s voters said they disapproved of the federal government’s 2009 bailout of General Motors and Chrysler. And among that group, Romney and Santorum were tied.

Santorum had drawn some pundit criticism in the few days by accusing Obama of being snobbish because the president, in Santorum’s words, “wants everybody in America to go to college.” Santorum’s remark was interpreted as an attempt to appeal to non-college educated Michiganders.

Those without a college degree accounted for nearly half of the Michigan electorate Tuesday, and they slightly preferred Santorum to Romney.

Santorum also did better among voters who said they had an annual family income of $50,000 or less, winning 41 percent to Romney’s 36 percent.

As he has in other states, Romney ran well among more affluent voters, winning nearly half of those earning more than $100,000 a year.

The electorate in Tuesday’s primary had relatively few people from labor union households: only 23 percent came from union households and those voters favored Santorum 45 percent to 27 percent for Romney.

Romney had accused Santorum of trying to "kidnap" the GOP primary by making robo-calls appealing to Democrats to vote for him, but Santorum's attempt fell short of success.

Only 9 percent of voters said they were Democrats and Santorum had the most appeal to them, winning 53 percent of self-identified Democrats. Romney won 18 percent of the Democrats who votedi n the GOP primary Tuesday, while Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, who did not actively compete in Michigan, won 17 percent of them.

Conservative voters were split with 43 percent saying they’d voted for Romney, 41 percent for Santorum, and 7 percent for Paul.

There was a slight gender gap in Tuesday’s electorate with 43 percent of women favoring Romney while 38 percent said they backed Santorum.

As he had in previous contests Romney did very well among voters age 65 and over, winning 49 percent of them. Santorum won 31 percent of voters age 65 and older.

Santorum ran strongly among self-identified born-again Christians who accounted for 42 percent of the electorate in Michigan, winning half of them. But Romney, a Mormon, edged Santorum, a Catholic, among Catholic voters, getting 44 percent to Santorum’s 37 percent.

Updated at 10:13 AM ET

Mitt Romney dominated among nearly every demographic, income, and ideological category in Tuesday’s Arizona primary.

As in Michigan’s contest on Tuesday, in Arizona the economy was the issue that mattered most to voters: nearly half of those interviewed in the exit poll picked the economy as the dominant issue and Romney won those voters with 51 percent, to Rick Santorum’s 26 percent.

A plurality of voters said they wanted someone who could beat President Obama in November and 56 percent of such voters backed Romney.

Among the minority (15 percent) who said they were looking for “a true conservative,” 43 percent supported Santorum. Another group which Santorum won was born-again Christians: 37 percent supported Santorum while 35 percent backed Romney.

But Catholic voters (17 percent of the electorate) much preferred Romney to Santorum, as did non-evangelical Protestants.

Romney, a Mormon, also won nine out of ten Mormon voters, who accounted for 14 percent of Tuesday’s electorate.

Despite Romney having changed his views on abortion in 2005, and Santorum having been a stalwart abortion foe for many years, it was Romney who dominated among the nearly 60 percent of voters who said abortion should be illegal: Romney won half of those voters in Arizona, while Santorum won about a quarter of them.

Exit poll interviews of voters in Tuesday’s primary defied some of the news media stereotypes. Arizona has enacted the most stringent law in the nation to arrest illegal immigrants and question those suspected of being illegals. And illegal immigration was a concern to some voters in Tuesday’s election -- but only 13 percent said it was the issue that most mattered in deciding how they voted.

And remarkably, more than three out of five Arizona Republican primary voters said illegal immigrants ought to be allowed either to apply for citizenship or to stay in the United States as temporary workers.

Only 34 percent of Arizona voters wanted illegal immigrants deported. Romney easily won among all three groups of voters.

Romney won among all income groups but did best among those with a family income of $100,000 or more. But even among the voters who reported family income of under $50,000, Romney beat Santorum 42 percent to 28 percent.

Fifty-four percent of Arizona voters said they’d made their decision on whom to vote for before this month. And most of them (49 percent) backed Romney. 

Updated 11:05 pm ET: NOVI, Mich. -- Mitt Romney won primary victories in Michigan and Arizona Tuesday night, staving off Rick Santorum in a closely-fought contest here in a state where Romney was born and raised and avoiding an embarrassing setback for his campaign.

Romney won the Michigan primary by just a few percentage points, while scoring a victory by much larger margins in Arizona.

The crowd at the Suburban Collection Showplace in suburban Detroit burst into cheers as cable news on projection screens reflected the projection in Michigan.

Romney's victory in Michigan carries symbolic importance after the contest had been transformed into a key test of his strength as the campaign's frontrunner. He'll also end up with the lion's share of delegates awarded tonight since Arizona allots its delegates on a winner-take-all basis. Romney will win two delegates statewide in Michigan, and an additional three delegates for each of the state's 14 congressional districts he wins.

Romney made sure to stress both his victories Tuesday night, thanking voters in Arizona and Michigan and calling it a “great victory.” Referring to Michigan, Romney said, “We didn’t win by a lot but we won by enough and that’s all that counts.”

Romney hit on familiar themes of restoring American greatness and his Michigan roots during his speech. But in a nod toward the changing dynamics of the race, Romney solicited donations through his website -- something he hasn't mentioned previously in similar speeches.

A bigger haul of delegates are at stake in just a week, however. The Republican campaign will now move into its next pivotal stretch preceding Super Tuesday, when 10 states host primaries or caucuses.

The results follow a tumultuous three weeks that had featured both candidates fighting for momentum in the Republican nomination contest. Most of the attention was focused on Michigan, where the results could prove to be a turning point in the race. 

Romney romps among nearly all groups in Arizona primary

In Michigan, the state where Romney was born and raised and where his father served as governor, the on-again, off-again front-runner had to wage a tougher-than-expected campaign to avoid an embarrassing loss to Santorum, the former Pennsylvania senator. Santorum had carried momentum into the state after sweeping a trio of mid-February nominating contests, and pointedly deciding to challenge Romney on his home turf.

Crossover Democrats overwhelmingly back Santorum

"To the people, you know we came to the backyard of one of my opponents ... and the people of Michigan looked into the hearts of the candidates, and all I have to say is, I love you back," Santorum said in remarks at his campaign night party on the western side of Michigan.

While Arizona was only lightly contested by the candidates, Michigan was a different story.

Romney had barnstormed the state in stops meant to remind voters of his roots here, and taken a newly-aggressive tack against Santorum on the campaign trail. His campaign and a supportive super PAC added support by spending over $4 million combined on advertising.

But unlike other instances in which Romney’s Republican challengers had been unable to respond, Santorum’s campaign and a similarly supportive super PAC spent over $2 million in response. The former Pennsylvania senator also aggressively went after Romney on the campaign trail, framing Romney as a poor choice for conservatives to face off against President Obama.

The primary voters in Michigan broke along familiar patterns. Voters who considered themselves just somewhat conservative, and voters who valued electability as the top characteristic in a candidate tended toward Romney. He also performed best among wealthier voters.

Santorum performed best among the most conservative voters in the GOP, and outperformed Romney among more middle-class Republicans. Union households broke for Santorum, and the Democrats who did vote in the primary -- they made up about nine percent of the electorate, according to exit polls -- favored Santorum.

The exit poll results suggested, though, that red flags continue to exist for Romney. The former Massachusetts governor still struggles in winning over the very conservative core of the Republican Party, and faces challenges in winning over GOP voters of lesser means. That latter factor does little to diminish a narrative about Romney's difficulty in connecting with voters.

A loss for Romney could have threatened to provoke new hand-wringing from the GOP’s establishment class about the viability of the former Massachusetts governor’s candidacy. Romney has long been thought of as the Republican frontrunner, but his struggles to string together wins in the primary season threaten to drag the battle for the nomination into a protracted delegate fight.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul are poised to re-emerge as contenders in some of those Super Tuesday contests, and states like Ohio may well pose the next test of whether Romney or Santorum gain any sustained momentum out of tonight’s results.

Arizona and Michigan are both considered potential battleground states come November, and the president’s re-election campaign has acted aggressively to bracket primary results in both states this evening. The president’s campaign ran ads here in Michigan promoting the administration’s decision to assist GM and Chrysler in 2009, and Obama himself reminded the autoworkers’ union of the Republican candidates’ opposition to the bailout in a campaign-style speech today.

First Read: Is Arizona in play for Team Obama?

“And you will recall there were some politicians who said we should do that,” Obama said of many Republicans’ resistance to providing help to the troubled automakers. “Some even said we should ‘let Detroit go bankrupt.’”

Romney and Santorum each provided the Obama campaign with fodder for the general election, too, from Romney’s comments about his wife owning two Cadillacs or being friends with NASCAR team owners, to Santorum’s calling the president a “snob” for supporting a policy advocating higher education for young people.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta reaffirmed Tuesday the Obama administration’s determination to persist in seeking a stable government in Afghanistan after the murder of two U.S. military officers by an Afghan soldier inside the Interior Ministry building in Kabul.

Manuel Balce Ceneta / AP

'The reason we are there, senator, is because our mission is to dismantle, destroy, and defeat al Qaida and their terrorist allies,' Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said.

The weekend murders were the latest in a wave of “fratricide” attacks by Afghan soldiers and policemen on American soldiers in Afghanistan.

At a Senate Budget Committee hearing Sen. Lindsey Graham, R- S.C., asked Panetta, “When it comes to Afghanistan … is it worth it? What is winning? What’s the benefit of winning? What’s the cost of losing?”

See related: Panetta applauds Karzai statement on peace talks

“The reason we are there, senator, is because our mission is to dismantle, destroy, and defeat al Qaida and their terrorist allies,” Panetta said. “Our ultimate goal here has to be an Afghanistan that can control and secure itself and make sure that it can never again become a safe haven where terrorists can plan attacks,”.

He added that “the cost of losing” is that the Taliban would regain control of Afghanistan and that terrorist groups would regroup there “and their sole goal is to attack this country.”

No senators asked Panetta whether the fratricide attacks call into question the Obama administration’s strategy of training Afghan military forces so that they can take responsibility for keeping order in the country once most U.S. forces are withdrawn in 2014, as Obama has promised.

Separately, Senate Armed Services Committee chairman Sen. Carl Levin, D- Mich., told reporters Tuesday that if there’s no repeat of the inadvertent burning of Korans in Afghanistan -- which may have triggered the murders of the two Americans -- then “we will not see a repeat of this kind of violence. I don’t believe the Afghan people want us to leave. I don’t think that most of the Afghan army or police are willing to attack us, or want to attack us any way. I think it’s a very small minority.”

What’s more important, Levin said, is that “the Afghan police and army are the ones who are putting down the violence” --  the riots and demonstrations which followed the Koran burning.

With one exception, other members of the Armed Services Committee said they were worried about the weekend attack and the pattern of fratricide incidents, but didn’t indicate they’d support a quicker drawdown of American forces or an earlier exit date.

Sen. Kay Hagan, D- N.C., said, “It certainly raises a huge issue if people that we are helping and entrusting then kill our own soldiers.”

Sen. Jack Reed, D- R.I., said Afghan President Hamid Karzai and his cabinet needed to block infiltration and to prevent fratricide attacks. They now face “a test of their commitment to partnering with NATO” and a chance to “to demonstrate their seriousness” about taking steps to stop fratricide attacks.

He said, ”You want to be very careful and deliberate in this process, but I think it raises a significant issue of the willingness and capacity of the Afghani forces to partner with us.” But he said the “trajectory has already been set” by President Obama for exit of U.S. forces in 2014.

The certainty of that exit date probably defuses the opposition to the Afghanistan deployment among some members of Congress.

Calling the weekend killings “horrible” and saying American forces would need to be “much more vigorous in vetting our partners,” Sen. Kelly Ayotte, R- N.H., said she did not think the weekend’s events should lead to a change in American strategy.

“We still have a very important interest in Afghanistan,” she said, “We cannot allow Afghanistan to become a launching pad and a haven for terrorism again. And if we suddenly withdraw from Afghanistan based on these events, we will actually empower those who are committing these acts of terrorism right now in Afghanistan and further encourage additional acts of terrorism.”

But another Armed Services Committee member, Democratic dissenter Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, said the murder of the U.S. officers “reinforces what I have always said: that’s an extremely dangerous place. I don’t believe we should be there trying to nation build, trying to change the culture of people – we shouldn’t, and I don’t think we can do that.”

He added, “We should get out of there immediately and leave no doubt that we will go after terrorism wherever it may be. Everyone says, ‘when you leave, they will all come back.’ Well, if they come back with intent to do us harm, we’ll be back.”

But he said he didn’t want to put “our sons and daughters in a situation where the people they trained are going to be turning their guns on them. It’s ridiculous.”

John Makely / msnbc.com

Michigan voters go to the polls to vote in St. Clair Shores on Feb. 28, 2012.

ROYAL OAK, Mich. – Mitt Romney found himself fighting to infuse his presidential candidacy with new energy and stave off embarrassment in Tuesday’s Republican primary in Michigan.

A native son of Michigan, where his father served as governor, Romney’s facing high expectations about his ability to beat former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, who’s directly challenged him with message focusing on the middle class and a manufacturing revival.

Romney had been expected to easily win here until Santorum upset the former Massachusetts governor in a trio of nominating contests earlier this month. If momentum carries Santorum to victory on Tuesday in Michigan, it would put Romney’s campaign – long considered the favorite among Republicans seeking the nomination – on precarious political footing.

“I think it’s going to be an embarrassment if he does lose. I don’t think it looks good when you win in your home state, but I’m hopeful that he’ll pull it out,” said Julie Wells, a teacher from Birmingham who intends to vote for Romney, at a rally Monday evening in this Detroit suburb.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Rick Santorum has a quick bite to eat before speaking to the Livonia Chamber of Commerce on Feb. 27. in Livonia, Mich.

Arizona also hosts its primary on Tuesday evening. Romney is generally favored to win that contest, while Michigan has been transformed into the key battleground for the trajectory of the Republican race.

Romney’s stop in Royal Oak represented a distilled version of the message he’s preached over the past week, emphasizing his roots in Michigan, his private sector experience and his skill in leading an economic turnaround – an especially important message in a state where the downturn has been especially pronounced.

“I’m going to be able to talk about the economy with credibility that he doesn’t have,” Romney said of President Barack Obama at a campaign event on Monday evening.

First Read: Decision day in Michigan and Arizona

The boisterous gathering was intended to project a kind of momentum and inevitability for Romney that was far from certain. Polling over the past week has suggested Romney is running virtually even with Santorum, a candidate who’s aggressively courting Michigan’s conservative, blue-collar voters.

“Santorum, when it comes down to it, is talking the talk and walking the walk,” Republican State Sen. Jack Brandenburg, a Santorum voter, said in a weekend interview. “For him and Romney to be neck and neck in Romney’s home state with the reputation that Romney’s family has – I think that says a lot for what Rick Santorum has done.”

A Romney loss on Tuesday could threaten to upend a nominating process that had been assumed to be tending in his favor with just a week before a major delegate haul is at stake on March 6, Super Tuesday.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Bob Pohl, of Spring Arbor, Mich., holds up an old campaign poster of George Romney, Mitt Romney's father, during a rally at the Caster Concepts company in Albion, Mich.

“I think if Romney loses in Michigan, he really doesn’t have a chance of beating Obama,” said Tim Donnelly, a former construction worker who went back to school to study accounting because of the poor economy here. Donnelly was an undecided voter as of Monday night, but said he was leaning toward Romney.

Santorum might have already inflicted a degree of damage against Romney, threatening to drag out the fight for the GOP nomination, if nothing else. A Monday poll of Republican primary voters in Ohio, which hosts its primary on Super Tuesday, found Santorum leading Romney.

"We're doing remarkably well for being as outspent as we are and feel very, very good about the reaction we're getting as we travel around the state of Michigan,” Santorum said Monday morning in Livonia, Mich. “We're getting good crowds, and obviously, the people are reacting well to our message."

If Romney does manage a victory on Tuesday evening, he’ll accomplish it by relying on the same playbook that led to wins in New Hampshire and Florida. In both of those states, the Romney campaign and a supportive super PAC outspent Republican opponents, and the candidate himself went more aggressively after candidates who posed a threat to his lead.

First Read: Romney admits mistakes, attacks Santorum's 'dirty tricks'

Romney also enjoys being seen as more electable than Santorum or the two other remaining Republican candidates, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

“I’m actually hoping he [Romney] will come out,” said Louann Bierlein Palmer, a professor at Western Michigan University and self-described moderate Republican, of Romney’s performance in Michigan. An Obama voter in 2008, she said she couldn’t support Santorum as the nominee “because I frankly prefer to have a choice between two moderates.”

But Romney has also committed gaffes that reminded Michigan voters of his immense wealth, including mentioning his wife’s two Cadillacs at a speech Friday at Ford Field – a choice of venue that was panned for its cavernous backdrop, given the thousands of empty seats in the stadium.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Mitt Romney thanks Kid Rock after he and his band performed at the rally supporting Romney's campaign for President.

The difference on Tuesday might stem from Romney’s deep roots in the state. The Monday night rally pulled out all the stops, and featured speeches by Gov. Rick Snyder and other statewide officials. It was capped by a performance by Kid Rock, a Detroit native whose song, “Born Free,” was adopted as the Romney campaign’s anthem.

“That’s a big factor,” said Robert Bolton, a Methodist pastor who said he’d make up his mind between Romney and Santorum on Tuesday morning. “I was a young Republican when his dad was running for governor.”

“When you leave home, Michigan’s a unique place. Our roots are always here, and people who aren’t from Michigan, the transplants, they don’t quite understand that,” Bolton added.

As Mitt Romney criticizes Rick Santorum for encouraging Democrats to vote in today's Michigan GOP primary -- "I think Republicans have to recognize there's a real effort to kidnap our primary process," he said today -- it is worth remembering that Romney said he voted for a Democrat in the 1992 primaries to help the GOP.

Rebecca Cook / Reuters

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney greets supporters during a stop at his Michigan campaign headquarters in Livonia February 28, 2012.

During his '08 White House bid, it was revealed that Romney voted for Paul Tsongas (D) in the 1992 Democratic primaries. Romney's explanation at the time: "When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I'd vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for a Republican."

Here's the transcript from a Feb. 18, 2007 ABC interview:

ABC: Let me talk about your political journey. You were an independent, a registered independent in the 1980s. You voted for Paul Tsongas as Democrat in the 1992 primaries. Now you've describe yourself as a Reagan Republican.

MITT ROMNEY: Kind of a mischaracterization. In Massachusetts if you register as an independent you can you vote on either the Republican or Democrat primary. When there was no real contest in the Republican primary, I'd vote in the Democrat primary, vote for the person who I thought would be the weakest opponent for a Republican… But let me tell you, in the general election, I don't recall ever once voting for anyone other than a Republican. So, yeah, as an independent I'll go in and play in their primary but I'm a Republican and have been through my life. I was with Young Republicans when I was in college back at Stanford. But a registered independent so I could vote in either primary.

At his press avail today, Romney was asked about his vote for Tsongas in the 1992 Democratic primaries.

Romney responded: "It’s very different running for -- being a candidate for president, buying ads, and telling Democrats to go, to go mess into a Republican primary and to vote against me."

He continued, "In my case, I was certainly voting against the Democrat who I thought was the person I thought would be the worst leader of our nation. In this case, as I recall, it was Bill Clinton. I wanted someone other than Bill Clinton. And certainly and against -- I voted against Ted Kennedy, Tip O’Neill, and Bill Clinton. It seemed like a good group to be against."

Susan Walsh / AP

President Barack Obama speaks before the National Governors Association, Monday, Feb. 27, 2012, in the State Dining Room of the White House.

The last time a Democratic presidential candidate won Arizona was 16 years ago, when Bill Clinton carried it in 1996.

The time before that? More than half a century ago, when Harry Truman won the state.

But as Republicans compete in their own primary there today, President Barack Obama's re-election team also has its eye on Arizona, a state where a growing Hispanic electorate and a deep divide on immigration policy could potentially help the president collect a much-needed 11 electoral votes in November.

A win there would be a reach, however. A recent NBC/Marist poll put Obama's approval rating in the state below 40%, and it showed him trailing most of the Republican presidential candidates there.

While Obama -- who didn't contest Arizona four years ago -- lost it by eight percentage points in 2008, his team believes that Sen. John McCain's less-than-double-digit victory in his own home state did much to lay bare Republicans' vulnerability there.

And, four years later, Obama's opponent is likely to face a much harsher reception from the state's growing Latino electorate than McCain, whose push for comprehensive immigration reform nearly derailed his candidacy early in the GOP primary.

From vows to veto the DREAM Act to heavy courtship of controversial endorsers like Arizona's Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, GOP candidates' language on immigration has prompted public worry from Republican Hispanic groups as well as from party leaders like former Gov. Jeb Bush.

In Arizona, which became ground zero for the immigration debate after its 2010 passage of legislation that would give police broad authority to detain suspected illegal residents, Democrats have a favorite noun to describe Republican rhetoric on the matter.

"Overreach."

"I can't underscore enough our sense on the ground is that Republicans have overplayed their hand in terms of rhetoric and legislating immigration law," says Phoenix-based Democratic strategist Barry Dill. "And there's a backlash."

Those working to turn the state blue were thrilled to hear Mitt Romney call Arizona's stringent SB 1070 immigration measure "a model" for the nation's policies during a Feb. 22 debate in Mesa. They believe that kind of language -- underscored by Romney's endorsement on Sunday by Gov. Jan Brewer, who signed the bill into law -- could further mobilize Arizona voters looking for more moderate solutions to the immigration issue.

Harnessing that feeling on the ground will be the task of the campaign's substantial Arizona field operation.

The re-election campaign has three field offices already in Arizona -- in Phoenix, Tucson and Flagstaff -- and another set to open in heavily Hispanic Glendale in the coming weeks. The campaign says that staff and volunteers have held almost 500 voter registration sessions and more than 200 phone banks since the spring. Much of that effort is focused on the Hispanic community, with events held at Hispanic supermarkets and weekly Spanish- and English-language phone banks targeting Latinos. The campaign recently hired a Mexican-American regional field director.

While Team Obama hasn't yet invested in paid media there, the DNC has aired TV advertisements, including a six-day anti-Romney buy last year.

With the number of voting age Hispanic citizens growing by a whopping 85% last decade, per Census data, the benefits of such a focus are obvious. But the lift may still prove to be a heavy one.

The NBC/Marist Arizona survey this month also found that 51% of Hispanics approve of the president's performance, with 34% disapproving and 15% unsure.

Compare that to the 2008 numbers: Obama won 56% of the Latino vote in Arizona compared to McCain's 41%.

Luis Heredia, the executive director of the Arizona Democratic Party, estimates that Obama would have to boost that number to at least 65% in November to get over the finish line.

And Dill, who served as deputy state director for the Clinton/Gore win in 1996, puts that number even higher, at 68%.

He added that Democrats must be careful in 2012 to tailor their message to a diverse Hispanic community, saying that the party stumbled in past elections by treating the group as a single monolithic block.

"A big part of it had been our fault as campaign managers, as leaders," Dill said. "We had sort of homogenized the Hispanic community in Arizona into one group. And they're not, they're very diverse."

This year, Democrats say there's plenty of reasons to be optimistic.

Obama's team points to Democrats' double-digit mayoral victories in Tucson and Phoenix last year as well as the recall of Arizona State Senate president and author of SB 1070.

And Heredia adds that downballot races, like the one to replace retiring Rep. Gabby Giffords, will help build excitement for activists locally.

"I gain more and more confidence every day," he said.

Decision Day in Michigan (and Arizona, too)… What’s riding on tonight’s Michigan race: It will determine if Romney limps to the nomination or if all hell breaks loose… Why didn’t Romney go after Santorum’s controversial comments (on college and JFK)?... A combined 59 delegates are up for grabs in AZ and MI… Final polls close in both states at 9:00 pm ET… Team Romney outspends Team Santorum in Michigan by 2-to-1 margin… And Adelson cuts another check.

Laura Segall / Reuters

Republican presidential candidates former Senator Rick Santorum and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney smile before the start of the Republican presidential candidates debate in Mesa, Arizona, February 22, 2012.

*** Decision Day in Michigan (and Arizona): Four weeks ago, after Mitt Romney’s decisive victory in Florida, few would have predicted that today’s primary in Michigan -- a state where Romney grew up, where his father served as governor, where he launched his ’08 presidential campaign -- would become such a consequential contest. Now? There’s so much riding on today’s Republican presidential primary there. Tonight will largely decide if Romney limps to the nomination or if all hell breaks loose inside the GOP. There's no overstating the consequences of a Romney loss tonight: There won’t just be handwringing by the establishment, but there will be financial and staffing consequences, too. Given those stakes, Romney yesterday made his final pitch to Michigan voters with a special appearance by Kid Rock. Rick Santorum’s campaign began running robo-calls urging Democrats to vote for Santorum and against Romney. And some Democrats are doing the same to fellow party members in this essentially open primary. The polling, including last week’s NBC/Marist survey, showed the race tight, with maybe a finger on the scale in Romney’s direction. Buckle your seatbelts; tonight could be quite a ride.

*** Why didn’t Romney go after Santorum’s controversial comments? If Santorum ends up pulling off the upset in Michigan -- after all the controversial comments he’s made in the past few days (on college education, JFK’s 1960 speech on the separation between church and state) -- you have to wonder if the Romney campaign made a mistake by not attacking those comments. Indeed, you could argue that what Romney HASN’T said might be as significant as what Santorum HAS. David Brooks -- who barely mentions Romney in his column today, but whose point seems to be all about him -- seems to suggest the same. “All across the nation, there are mainstream Republicans lamenting how the party has grown more and more insular, more and more rigid. This year, they have an excellent chance to defeat President Obama, yet the wingers have trashed the party’s reputation by swinging from one embarrassing and unelectable option to the next: Bachmann, Trump, Cain, Perry, Gingrich, Santorum. But where have these party leaders been over the past five years, when all the forces that distort the G.O.P. were metastasizing?”

*** Trying not to offend: It's truly astonishing that Romney is acting as if he's so concerned about alienating some conservatives that he won't even challenge Santorum on the "snob" comments regarding college education. And if Romney is that fearful about standing up to Santorum, what does that say about his personal leadership qualities? As many folks have remarked over the last few days, the lack of agility of Romney as a candidate has been on full display these last 72 hours. His primary campaign has been about not offending anyone on the right. And if Romney loses tonight, he'll have that strategy to thank. 

*** Combined 59 delegates up for grabs tonight: Michigan isn’t the only contest tonight. Arizona is also holding its primary, although the polling there has Romney with a sizable lead in the state. Per NBC’s John Bailey, Michigan will send 30 delegates to the GOP convention. (The state initially had 59 delegates, but the RNC penalized them for violating party rules by going before March 6.) Twenty-eight of the 30 delegates are awarded as winner-take-all based on the vote in each congressional district, and the two other delegates are awarded proportionally based on the statewide vote total (but a candidate must receive at least 15% to be eligible). In Arizona, Bailey adds, 29 delegates are at stake. (The state originally had 58 delegates, but the RNC stripped half the delegation for the same rule violation as Michigan.) Arizona’s contest is pure winner-take-all, with all of the state’s 29 delegates going to the winner of the statewide vote.

*** Breaking down Michigan: In Michigan four years ago, turnout was just less than 870,000 (869,169 to be exact). The counties with the most Republicans are Oakland (133,431), Wayne (99,370), and Macomb (77,195). Wayne County includes most of Detroit; Oakland County includes the more affluent suburbs north of the city; and Macomb County, home of the “Reagan Democrats,” includes the more blue-collar areas northeast of town. Romney won Michigan last cycle, with 39% of the vote, a nine-point victory over eventual nominee John McCain. Three of Romney’s four strongest counties were Oakland, Macomb, and Wayne -- where he won by 21, 20, and 18 percentage points, respectively. Michigan does not have early voting, but it does allow voters to cast ballots absentee if they give an approved excuse. The primary is open; any registered voter can vote in either primary, but not both. Most of Michigan’s polling places close at 8:00 pm ET, but the four counties in the Central Time Zone close at 9:00 pm ET, and so 9:00 pm ET would be the earliest the networks could call this race.

*** Breaking down Arizona: In 2008, per NBC’s Bailey, about 541,000 Arizona Republicans turned out (541,035 to be exact). Favorite son John McCain won the state with 47% of the vote. Mitt Romney was second with 35%. The two largest counties in Arizona are Maricopa (Phoenix) and Pima (Tucson). Together they accounted for nearly 80% of Arizona GOP voters last cycle. Arizona has early voting, which took place from Feb. 2 through last Friday. Arizona’s primary is closed to registered party members, so only registered Republicans can vote today. Polls close at 9:00 pm ET.

*** Team Romney outspends Team Santorum in Michigan by 2-to-1 margin: In Michigan, Romney and his allies outspent Santorum and his allies by a 2-to-1 margin, $4.1 million vs. $2.1 million. Here are the final ad-spending numbers: Restore Our Future (pro-Romney Super PAC) $2.4 million; Romney campaign $1.7 million; Red, White, and Blue Fund (pro-Santorum Super PAC) $1.2 million, Santorum campaign $897,000; and Paul $50,000. In Arizona, meanwhile, Restore Our Future spent $610,000; Winning Our Future (pro-Gingrich Super PAC) spent $62,000; and Santorum spent $60,000.

*** Adelson cuts another check: Speaking of spending and Super PACs, the Washington Post reports that Sheldon Adelson will be writing another HEFTY check to the pro-Gingrich group Winning Our Future. “An independent group supporting Newt Gingrich has received another ‘substantial’ contribution from billionaire casino owner Sheldon Adelson and will launch TV ads in seven states this week, a source close to the group confirmed Monday. The source, who requested anonymity to speak freely, did not confirm the amount of the contribution but called it substantial and at least on par with two $5 million donations Adelson and his family have given previously.”

*** On the trail, per NBC’s Adam Perez: Santorum stumps in Michigan before heading to a rally in Perrysburg, OH at 11:30 am ET… And Gingrich holds three rallies in Georgia.

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Congress is about to open a new, real-time window into its members' stock trades, real estate deals and other financial transactions, allowing anyone to view the information online within weeks of the investments.

The frequent reporting requirement also will cover top congressional aides and other senior government officials, including the president and the vice president — about 28,000 executive branch employees by one count.

Making lawmakers and other officials report their investment transactions every 30 days or 45 days, depending on the final language, is a key component of legislation explicitly prohibiting them from trading on insider information.

Both the House and Senate overwhelmingly approved different versions earlier this month and final passage is expected soon. The next step is up to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., who can bring the House's slightly narrower version to a vote or let a House-Senate conference work out the differences.

Insider trading is already illegal and there's no exemption for government officials. But the perception persists that it's taking place in the halls of Congress, perpetuated by occasional investigations and media reports of key lawmakers buying, selling or holding stocks or real estate in areas where they influence policy.

Recommended: With Panetta facing Senate panel, new questions on Afghan future 

The Office of Congressional Ethics is now looking at the trading activities of Rep. Spencer Bachus, R-Ala. In the two months surrounding the 2008 financial collapse and subsequent $700 billion bailout passed by Congress, he made more than three dozen trades.

Bachus, now chairman of the House Financial Services Committee but then its senior Republican, participated in closed briefings on the crisis by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and then-Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson. He's denied using inside information, and subsequent records show he incurred a net loss of $19,490.

With Congress enjoying only a 19 percent approval rating, according to the latest Associated Press-GfK poll, lawmakers are eager to be seen as reformers early in an election year. Timely exposure of their own financial transactions is a step in that direction, according to watchdog groups.

"The reporting requirement is the best part" of the insider trading law, said Melanie Sloan, executive director of Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington. "People will know what members and staff are buying and selling. If they're profiting through their positions in Congress, that will be revealed."

Sloan said groups like hers also will be comparing the members' reports with matters before the committees on which they serve. "There certainly will be complaints filed," she predicted. "There will be a deterrent effect from engaging in misconduct."

John Wonderlich, policy director at the Sunlight Foundation watchdog group, agreed. "The primary impact will be behavioral. Since major transactions will be disclosed monthly, the unethical choice becomes slightly less attractive," he said.

Bill Allison, editorial director for the Sunlight Foundation, said his organization might look for unusual trades by lawmakers.

"If lots of people are buying Apple and members of Congress are dumping Apple, we would want to look at that," he said.

Alabama Sen. Richard Shelby said ethics can't be legislated "but you can tighten reporting and make it tougher to cheat."

But Shelby, the top Republican on the Senate Banking Committee, is skeptical that the bill will alter people's view of lawmakers. "Congress has been the whipping boy for a long time. One bill won't change a lot of it," he said.

Members of Congress and top aides now file disclosure forms once a year. While the House clerk posts the filings online, the Senate still requires people to come to a Senate office building in Washington to look up a report.

The annual reports usually are released in mid-June, and they cover the previous calendar year. That means a report covering 2011 isn't filed until May 2012 and isn't publicly disclosed until a month later. A January 2011 transaction could be nearly a year and a half old before the public might learn of it.

Despite the added transparency, some members of Congress said they don't believe the frequent reporting is needed.

"I don't think it's necessary to impose that extra step," Sen. Frank Lautenberg, D-N.J., said, while adding that he would comply.

Sen. Charles Grassley, R-Iowa, a farm owner, chuckled that he has one asset that won't be traded. "When you buy a farm, you buy a farm forever. You don't sell it," he said.

Grassley's 2010 transactions were in mutual funds. While the House and Senate ethics committees would have to work out the precise transaction reporting rules, the legislation would only exempt publicly traded, widely diversified mutual funds in which the individual has no control over the assets. That would mean real estate deals would be reportable, and so would sector funds that are not widely diversified, such as those holding only high-tech stocks.

Rep. Howard Berman, D-Calif., joked that the requirement won't be a burden for him.

"Since I do none of my own trading and have some guy who does it, it's a burden on him," Berman said. He took the extra step, not required, of attaching his broker statements showing dozens of transactions to his 2010 disclosure form.

Rep. Darrell Issa, R-Calif., one of the richest members of Congress, said he supports the legislation but urged his colleagues to think carefully about what they're doing.

"The last time an ethics bill was rushed through Congress, it erroneously banned members of Congress who had their pilot's licenses from flying their own private planes," he said. "Past history has shown that tough-sounding measures often don't address ineffective enforcement mechanisms or help sort out real abuses of the public trust from everyday mudslinging."

John Makely / msnbc.com

The marquee sign of the Royal Oak theater in Royal Oak, Michigan announces the invitation only rally for Mitt Romney on the eve of the Republican primary election in his home state of Michigan.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Senator Rick Santorum has a quick bite to eat before the speaking to the Livonia Chamber of Commerce in Livonia, Michigan on Monday, Feb. 27. On the menu were mini quiches, muffins, sausages and mixed fruit.

A few weeks ago I spent ten days in New Hampshire covering the run up to the Republican primary on Jan. 10.  This week I briefly returned to the campaign trail as Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum vie for the attention of Michigan voters before the primary there on Feb. 28.  While Romney's campaign bankroll has enabled him to spend heavily on staff, promotional material and airtime I was still struck by the stark contrasts in style as I covered both Romney and Santorum events on Monday. 

John Makely / msnbc.com

Security was tight as
Mitt Romney addressed supporters gathered at the Caster Concepts company in Albion, Michigan. Those who turned out for the event were directed to areas around the stage, which was illuminated with theatrical lighting. Press risers were assembled for the media to offer a view of all the people in attendance.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Senator Rick Santorum makes a point while speaking before the Livonia Chamber of Commerce in Livonia, Michigan on Monday, Feb. 27.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Surrounded by supporters on a carefully arranged stage wit oversized banners,
Mitt Romney addresses primary voters gathered at the Caster Concepts company in Albion, Michigan. The crowd responded with applause following each talking point.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Senator Rick Santorum speaks before the Livonia Chamber of Commerce in Livonia, Michigan on Monday, Feb. 27. The senator earned a hearty applause from the crowd for comments supporting the U.S. troops, lowering taxes and his emphasis on the need to replace President Obama with a Republican.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Bob Pohl, of Spring Arbor, Michigan, ( second from left) holds up an old capmaign poster of George Romney, Mitt Romney's father, during a rally at the Caster Concepts company in Albion, Michigan.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Senator Rick Santorum shakes hands with a supporter after speaking to the Livonia Chamber of Commerce in Livonia, Michigan on Monday, Feb. 27.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Mitt Romney thanks Kid Rock after he and his band performed at the rally supporting Romney's campaign for President held at the Royal Oak theater in Royal Oak, Michigan on the eve of the Republican primary election in his home state of Michigan.

Story: Michigan a testing ground for doubt on Romney

• Story: Social issues? Santorum says he's talking about freedom
• Story: Romney and Santorum court Michigan's key blue-collar voters
• Slideshow: Rick Santorum
• Slideshow: Mitt Romney

The murder of two U.S. officers inside the Interior Ministry in Kabul by an Afghan soldier over the weekend is raising new questions about the Obama administration’s ability to implement its strategy in Afghanistan.

Defense Secretary Leon Panetta is sure to face tough questions on the U.S. military commitment in Afghanistan when he testifies Tuesday morning before the Senate Budget Committee.

Panetta faced similar questions two weeks ago at a Senate Armed Services Committee hearing from Sen. Susan Collins, R- Maine, who noted that since May of 2007, “Afghan security forces have killed 70 American and allied troops and wounded over a hundred more in 45 separate attacks.”

She noted the devastating effect on American soldiers and Marines -- and their families back home -- when they are “risking their lives to train and assist these Afghan troops only to have some of them turn on them and kill them.”

But in the middle of a presidential campaign there seems to be little room for the GOP contenders to outflank President Barack Obama politically on this issue. In their comments over the weekend GOP contenders commented less on the strategic questions raised by the Afghanistan killings than on Obama’s apology for the inadvertent burning of Korans at a U.S. base near Kabul.

The killing of American soldiers “is the real crime here, not what our soldiers did," said former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum on NBC’s Meet the Press.

"We've made an enormous contribution to help the people there achieve freedom, and for us to be apologizing at a time like this is something which is very difficult for the American people to countenance,” said Republican contender Mitt Romney.

One of the Republican contenders, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, has long called for the United States to end its mission in Afghanistan.

The weekend’s events “add to a drip-feed of negative news that suggests Afghanistan is an unwinnable quagmire,” said Swarthmore College political scientist Dominic Tierney, author of “How We Fight: Crusades, Quagmires, and the American Way of War.”

He said, “Republicans are berating the administration for apologizing and seeking to tie this into a story of administration weakness.”

But he added, “Republicans are actually fairly ambivalent about Afghanistan. While some Republicans stress the ‘stay the course’ message, there's not much appetite for big government nation-building in the country. Republicans want toughness and resolve, but they're dubious about our capacity to socially engineer Afghanistan into a stable democracy.”

The Obama administration’s case for continued patience was made Sunday on CNN by U.S. ambassador to Afghanistan Ryan Crocker: “This is not the time to decide that we're done here. We have got to redouble our efforts. We've got to create a situation in which al-Qaida is not coming back.”

Last June, Obama said that the 33,000 U.S. “surge” force that he ordered to Afghanistan would be removed by the end of this summer. That would leave 68,000 U.S. troops remaining in Afghanistan. Obama has set 2014 as the end date for the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan.

But Anthony Cordesman, a longtime military strategist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the bigger issues are the shifting U.S. strategy and the inherent difficulty of reshaping Afghanistan.

“At this point in time, we don’t have any particularly good or coherent options. The reason isn’t the Obama administration,” he said, but rather that the United States and its allies are confronting “the complexity of trying to transform the Afghan political structure and economy. This is not something you can blame on the Congress, the (American) people or the (Obama) administration.”

But, he added, the Obama administration has been “trying to rush the development of Afghan forces far too quickly” and that “we’re trying now to get more and more done by 2014, constantly changing the program as we cut the money and as there are more questions about how many troops are going to be actually supporting the Afghans.”

He said, “ultimately all of this does center around U.S. money” and the Obama administration’s Fiscal Year 2013 budget request has not “defined what that request is supposed to buy – although basically it cuts the level of spending in half, which means whatever your strategy was a year ago isn’t your strategy now.”

The United States and its NATO allies have scheduled a summit meeting in Chicago in May to agree on plans for Afghanistan’s future.

The Obama administration, Cordesman said, is “talking about transition, but until the Chicago conference takes place, you don’t have even the rough goal as to what ‘transition’ means, how much it will cost, what conditions the Afghans will meet, or what level of funding and support they are going to get.” 

He noted that, in addition to other uncertainties, “You don’t have a strategy that deals with the Pakistani sanctuaries – you don’t even know what level of support you can get from the Pakistanis ... .”

As for the fratricide attacks on U.S. soldiers by Afghans whom they are trying to train, Panetta said in his testimony two weeks ago that “better background checks” could help “ensure that these incidents are cut back.” He said the fratricide attacks are “not something that’s endemic. It is sporadic.”

Marine Gen. James Mattis, the head of U.S. Central Command, told Sen. Collins in a letter last week that “personal attacks make up a vast majority” of the fratricide incidents in which Afghan soldiers attack U.S. soldiers and Marines. “Most attackers are spurred by personal motivations, grievances, or emotions and act with little or no premeditation,” he said.

Cordesman noted, “The reality is that 18- to 20-year olds are not the natural ambassadors of a given culture –particularly if you give them guns and put them under intense stress.”

But Cordesman said, apart from stress or personal vendettas, “there will be infiltration (of U.S. forces in Afghanistan), not just incidents.” Infiltration of U.S. and other international forces is “one of the logical strategies for all of the insurgents to pursue” because “even a few bombings or killings can trigger all kinds of political reactions, as we’ve just seen.” 

John Makely / msnbc.com

Penny Phelan places a Rick Santorum sign near a busy intersection in Macomb County near Detroit on Sunday afternoon two days before the primary.

MACOMB COUNTY, MI – This suburban Detroit county, hard hit by auto industry troubles and the economic downturn throughout Michigan, may well chart the path to victory for either Mitt Romney or Rick Santorum in Tuesday’s primary.

Macomb County is the famed epicenter of “Reagan Democrats” in America -- the mostly white, blue-collar, Catholic voters known not only for their conservative sympathies, but dogged independence and a tendency of swinging from party to party.

The idea behind the label was always conceptual, but more and more, these voters find themselves more at home with the GOP. And thanks to Michigan's semi-open primary, which allows same-day party registration, their voices will be heard Tuesday.

Macomb is a county where voters are maybe the most attentive to the Republican candidates’ message on jobs right now.

“Our area, we’re a manufacturing county -- pretty much middle class. It’s a blue-collar county and it’s been about jobs,” said Republican state Rep. Ken Goike, who represents a portion of the county in the Michigan state legislature. “You can just feel the devastation.”

This county is known as a bellwether in national elections. Ronald Reagan won it twice by large margins, as did George H. W. Bush in 1988 and 1992. Bill Clinton carried the county in his re-election bid, and Al Gore narrowly bested George W. Bush here in 2000, though Bush eked out a victory over John Kerry in 2004. Barack Obama beat Arizona Sen. John McCain by 8 percentage points in the 2008 election.

Penny Phelan, of Harrison Township, was driving around with her husband, James, on Sunday afternoon to place yard signs in support of Rick Santorum at busy intersections.  The couple lost their home and has been living in an apartment after Penny lost her job as a kitchen and bath designer. James, an ex-Marine, works as a machinist.

A former Democrat who switched parties in the early 1980s, Penny said she felt that Democrats “have moved away from core values that are very important in families.” They’re backing Santorum not primarily because of his stance on moral issues, but because of his manufacturing agenda, and a sense that he’s more in touch with the people of Macomb than Romney, the native son of Detroit who left to start Bain Capital, later becoming governor of Massachusetts.

John Makely / msnbc.com

Michigan Republican primary voter Jared Maynard is backing Mitt Romney on Feb. 28.

“I feel like Santorum is for the basic guy. He has that connection, and understands the average worker in manufacturing and things like that have value,” she said of the former Pennsylvania senator, adding of Romney: “I just don’t think he’s lived it. And that makes a big difference, when you have people in your life who are suffering, and it’s close to you.”

But Romney has undeniable strength in the area. Many older voters can recall the days when his father, George, served as governor. And Romney has taken every stride possible to remind voters of his roots in the area, in stump speeches and frequent TV advertisements.

Jared Maynard, a former chairman of the Macomb County Republican Party who is backing Romney, said that the former governor’s jobs-oriented message should play well on Tuesday.

“The governor just needs to keep doing what he’s doing now, just talking to people about jobs,” Maynard said at a table at Crews Inn, overlooking the water in Anchor Bay. “And whether you’re the pauper on the street or the man in the mansion or you’re someone in between -- when you talk about jobs, you’re speaking everybody’s language.”

Both candidates have courted these Regan Democrats in their own ways. And they’ve both succeeded and failed, to some extent.

Santorum’s speeches are winding and sometimes disorganized, evinced by his Friday evening address in Lincoln Park. The speech was billed as a major address to outline a 10-point plan for his first 100 days as president, but these points became garbled, leaving some searching for crux of his message.

And Romney has reminded these middle class voters of his immense wealth by noting that his wife owns two Cadillacs during  a Friday economic speech at Ford Field, the home of the Detroit Lions. And during a trip Sunday to the Daytona 500, meant to emphasize his love for cars, Romney said he has “great friends who are NASCAR team owners."

The county has changed in a number of ways since Regan was president. Its population has grown, but the average age of the population has also risen. It’s a much more diverse place, too, driven in part by Detroiters leaving the city.

But Macomb’s most defining characteristic remains its economy. The unemployment rate stood at 9.6 percent at the end of 2011, but that actually marked a decline from the recent height of a startling 17.3 percent jobless rate in June of 2009, at the height of the troubles in the auto industry. The struggles of automakers have contributed in part to a decline in household incomes over the last decade.

“When I did move over here, it was an interesting culture of people who were very attached to the auto industry -- a well-established middle class,” said Kathy Vosburg, the first Republican chairwoman of the Macomb County Board of Commissioners. “Many times they had different views and more independent thinking. And I think a lot of that has to do with Macomb County being a bellwether.”

John Makely / msnbc.com

Penny and James Phelan drive through Macomb county placing several Rick Santorum signs near busy intersections before the Michigan primary election on tuesday.

That was true in the Republican primary of 2008, when Romney won 45 percent of the vote in Macomb on the strength of a message focused on his roots in the area, and a plea for assistance from the federal government. McCain won 25 percent of the county, and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee took 13 percent of the primary vote.

No polling has been conducted specifically of Macomb leading into Tuesday’s primary, though an EPIC/MRA survey last week found that Romney led in the three combined counties of Macomb, Oakland (a more liberal suburb) and Wayne (which encompasses Detroit).

Given Romney’s built-in advantages, the former Massachusetts governor’s campaign should be alarmed if they start seeing signs of Santorum inroads during returns tomorrow night.

“If you see Santorum coming in Macomb or Oakland getting above 30 percent, that should be something to worry the Romney folks,” said Bernie Porn, the president of EPIC/MRA.

“What would surprise me is if anyone wins by more than 5 or 6 percent,” said state Rep. Pete Lund, Republicans’ majority whip in the state House who represents part of Macomb.

Republican State Sen. Jack Brandenburg , who voted for Santorum but has not publicly endorsed in the race, said things look good for the former Pennsylvania senator.

“In the Republican primary, between Romney and Santorum, it’s going to go down to what faction gets their people out to vote. In Macomb County, I think the conservative element will come out strong -- and that bodes well for Rick Santorum,” he said, cautioning, “Romney has a lot of dough and a tremendous amount of resources.”

Both Santorum and Romney are stumping throughout the state of Michigan in the closing hours of the campaign to make their closing argument. Romney, speaking Monday morning in Rockford, challenged Santorum to speak more directly about the economy. That follows a weekend in which Santorum hit Romney for not focusing enough on industry in the state.

And come Tuesday’s GOP primary, whichever candidate can best speak to voters on that issue may end up carrying Macomb – and, with it, the rest of the state.

“That’s what Michigan is. It’s manufacturing,” said James Phelan.

LIVONIA, Mich. -- On the day Mitt Romney criticized him for not focusing enough on the economy, Rick Santorum stressed the need for simplifying the tax code, cutting trillions from the budget and building the Keystone pipeline.

Joe Raedle / Getty Images

Republican presidential candidate Rick Santorum often splits his time on the stump between focusing on jobs and social issues.

And while the former Pennsylvania laid out his economic plan to a local Chamber of Commerce here, he also pivoted into the social issues that have come to largely define his campaign.

"The separation of church and state that our founders believed in, which is what I just described, has now been turned on its head," he said. "And now, it’s the church, people of faith, who have no right to come to the public square and express their points of view, or practice their faith outside of their church."

That was received with applause from the 300 supporters in attendance.

"All reporters in the back, they say, 'Oh there’s Santorum talking about social issues again,'" he said. "No, I’m talking about freedom.
I’m talking about government imposing themselves on your lives."

The balance between talking about the economy -- which will likely be the most important issue in the Novemeber election -- and social issues has been a delicate one for the Santorum campaign. The candidate often splits his time on the stump between focusing on jobs and focusing on the issues of abortion, the family, and religious freedoms. Now, in a state hit particularly hard by the recession, the former Massachusetts governor is trying to exploit it as a weakness in his rival.

Stumping in Rockford, MI, earlier in the morning, Romney said of Santorum, "It's time for him to really focus on the economy."

Responding to Romney's critique, Santorum told reporters, "Tell him to watch my speech."

On the eve of the Michigan and Arizona primaries, the Romney campaign unveiled a new line of attacks against Santorum, building off his "sometimes you take one for the team" defense of earmarking during last week's debate. Santorum did not use his speech to defend his fiscal record in Congress, but instead split time between portraying himself as a consistent conservative and  introducing his plan to rebuild America's manufacturing and energy industries.

"This is a tax plan that isn't conforming to any type of school of economics, because America has its own destiny," Santorum said. "We don't fit into a school. We do our own; we cut our own path; we're Americans; we can do things different, and we can be successful in doing it. Our plan is bold. It doesn't just, you know, take an existing tax code and play around with it in 59 or 69 or 89 different tweaks."

Last year Romney unveiled a 59-point economic plan.

Santorum's first of three stops throughout the Wolverine State compliments an op-ed he in today's Wall Street Journal outlining the major tenants of his plan.

"Capitalism is painful," he said. "We all know markets are painful sometimes. When people dont keep up, when people do things that the market doesn't like, a lot of people suffer. They suffer more if you try to rig the game. I've been consistent on that. I can go after President Obama on that. No one else can in this race can."

While he didn't mention him by name, President Obama, used his speech in front of the National Governor's Association to respond to former Sen. Rick Santorum's assertion that the President is a "snob" for encouraging all students to attend college.

Kevin Lamarque / Reuters

President Obama encouraged the National Governors Association to "invest more in education."

"When I speak about higher education we're not just talking about a four-year degree," the president said. "We're talking about somebody going to a community college and getting trained ... for that manufacturing job that now is requiring somebody walking through the door handling a million-dollar piece of equipment."

He continued, "They can't go in there unless they've got some basic training beyond what they received in high school."

This past weekend, Santorum derided the president for his college-affordability initiatives. "Obama says he wants everyone to go to college, what a snob," the Republican presidential candidate boasted.

Obama also encouraged the governors to "invest more in education," using almost all of his speech to push the idea that a more successful American education system will lead to a better economic situation in the long run.

Today's remarks in the State Dining Room were in front of the nation's governors as part of the National Governors Association's winter meeting. All of the governors were invited, but the White House is not releasing the formal list of attendees. Spotted at one GOP power player table: Govs. Susana Martinez (R-NM), Chris Christie (R-NJ), Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Bobby Jindal (R-LA), and Nikki Haley (R-SC) sitting and chatting.

John Makely / msnbc.com

An empty lot in Detroit's Palmer Woods neighborhood where Mitt Romney's boyhood home once stood.

Mike O'Brien of NBCpolitics.com writes:

DETROIT -- All that's left of Mitt Romney's boyhood home is an empty lot, his family's old house in Detroit's Palmer Woods neighborhood having been bulldozed two years ago in May.

The Romney family home fell victim to a familiar predator in the city of Detroit: abandonment and blight. The city ordered the demolition of the home, at 1860 Balmoral Drive, in 2010 as part of an initiative to address blight throughout the city.

Romney has made frequent mention of his roots in southeast Michigan during his campaigning before Tuesday's primary in the state. He elaborated on the fate of his boyhood home, in which the family lived until 1953 according to the Boston Globe, at a stop Thursday evening in Milford:

 "I was born in Detroit, Harper Hospital, our home was right around six-mile and Woodward, a place called Palmer Park. And uh, we had a home there. It’s been bulldozed now because it turned, I guess, into an eyesore or a place where drugs were being used so they had to tear it down. It was a lovely home."

Ricardo Thomas/ The Detroit News via AP

This May 15, 2010 photo shows the onetime home of Michigan's Romney family in the Palmer Park section of Detroit. A demolition crew in Detroit torn down on Tuesday June 8, 2010 the 5,500-square-foot house that was lived in by former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney when he was a child. The dilapidated, two-story home torn down Tuesday in the Palmer Woods area was one of 3,000 set for demolition this year under Detroit Mayor Dave Bing's plans to improve neighborhoods by getting rid of dangerous structures and eyesores.

 It's a different portrait of the property painted in an Associated Press story about the demolition:

 Unlike thousands of other vacant houses in the city, the structure at 1860 Balmoral in Detroit's exclusive Palmer Woods area wasn't open to trespass, neighbors said as it crashed and crumbled to the ground.

 There didn't appear to be any vandalism and it certainly didn't become a haven to drug dealers like many others across the city, 58-year-old Tyrone Stewart said.

Mike O'Brien / msnbc.com

Boarded up storefronts on Woodward Ave. near Palmer Park in Detroit.

 The Palmer Woods neighborhood is hardly a portrait of poverty or disrepair; most of the homes in the community are well maintained and worth hundreds of thousands of dollars, even in a depressed housing market. A golf course and the University of Detroit Jesuit high school, an all boys' Catholic prep school, are nearby. A more familiar sight of abandoned and crumbling storefronts stand across Woodward Avenue at 7 Mile, opposite the east end of Palmer Woods.

 Len and Barb Marshick of Belleville, Mich. said at a Friday night rally for Rick Santorum, Romney's main opponent in the Michigan primary, that they drove by the Balmoral Drive property during its demolition. They bemoaned the destruction of the link between the would-be president and the community that raised him.

 "Romney hasn’t lived here for so long, I just don’t think the average person thinks he’s a Michigan guy," Barb said.

Slideshow: Mitt Romney

Story: Romney begins closing arguements in Michigan

Paul Sancya / AP

The former home of one of Michigan's most prominent political families lies in debris after being demolished in Detroit Tuesday, June 8, 2010. Crews demolished, as part of Detroit's plan to tear down neighborhood eyesores and dangerous houses, the 5,500-square-foot, two-story structure where George Romney raised his family for a time before being elected governor. Former Massachusetts governor and one-time Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney was raised in the home in the once prestigious Palmer Woods area.