Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Left to right, Dan Greteman and his daughter Kiran Greteman, 9, of West Des Moines; David Lister of Cumming, Georgia; and Greg Finch and his children Lizzy Finch, 8, and Ben Finch, 7, of Waukee, Iowa, wait for the arrival of former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the start of a campaign rally at a Hy Vee supermarket Dec. 30, in West Des Moines, Iowa. Despite cold wind and rain, hundreds of Romney supporters came out to see the candidate just days before the "first in the nation" Iowa Caucuses.

Chip Somodevilla / Getty Images

Marcella Yochum, center, and her son Scott Yochum of West Des Moines take shelter under a camoflauge sleeping bag while waiting for the arrival of former Massachusetts Governor and Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney before the start of a campaign rally at a Hy Vee supermarket December 30, 2011 in West Des Moines, Iowa.

• NBC poll - Romney and Paul neck and neck, while Gingrich sinks
• The latest news from the Iowa poll and what it means

/

U.S. President Barack Obama speaks at a campaign event in Washington December 13, 2011.

President Barack Obama will visit the political battleground state of Ohio next week, ushering in the 2012 election year with a speech focused on the economy, the White House said on Thursday.

Obama will visit Cleveland on Wednesday, just after he returns from a more than week-long vacation in Hawaii, White House spokesman Josh Earnest said.

The president had put off his trip to Hawaii to wait for Congress to extend payroll tax cuts expiring at the end of December, which lawmakers eventually agreed to continue for only two months because of disagreements about how to offset their cost.

Efforts to broker a full-year deal for the payroll tax cuts, which the White House has said the middle class needs until the U.S. economy heals, are expected to hang over Washington in early 2012 and may be a major theme of Obama's Cleveland speech.

The Democrat will also seek to deflect attention from the Republican caucuses in Iowa and draw a contrast between Obama's economic vision and those laid out by potential Republican rivals for the White House in the November vote.

Carolyn Kaster / AP

President Barack Obama speaks during a news conference in the South Court Auditorium at the White House complex, Thursday, Dec. 22, 2011.

Obama's re-election chances are expected to hinge on the state of the U.S. economy and particularly the jobless rate, which at 8.6 percent is several percentage points higher than before the financial crisis that struck just before he took office.

In Hawaii, Obama has been golfing, spending time at the beach with his wife and daughters, and enjoying dinners with friends. The Obamas went to church on Christmas Day, and on Thursday, they visited the Pearl Harbor memorial.

WASHINGTON, Iowa -- In his first targeted attack against the recently surging Rick Santorum, Rick Perry on Thursday labeled the former Pennsylvania senator a "prolific earmarker" who "loaded up on Pennsylvania pork" during his time in Congress.

Appearing at a coffee shop in Washington, IA, the Texas governor took direct aim at his rival's spending record less than 24 hours after a new TIME/CNN/ORC Iowa poll showed Santorum jumping into third place, with Perry stalled at fifth among GOP contenders.

"Rick Santorum is a friend," he said. "I've got great respect for him, but when he talks about fiscal conservativism every now and then it kinda leaves me scratching my head, because he was a prolific earmarker."

"You know I love Iowa pork but I hate Washington pork," Perry said to laughter from the crowd of about 50. "And Sen. Santorum, he loaded up his bills with Pennsylvania pork. And he even voted for the Alaska Bridge to Nowhere."

Perry then read a quote from a Santorum appearance on Fox News in February 2009 in which the former senator said "I'm very proud of all of my earmarks... I will defend earmarks."

"Senator Santorum I'm going to give you that opportunity to defend your earmarks," Perry added. "Because earmarks are the gateway drug to the spending problem that they have in Washington DC."

A radio ad echoing the same critique hit Iowa airwaves this morning, according to the campaign.

While Perry previously has lumped Santorum with other candidates whose tenure in Washington make them 'insiders," today's attack is the first shot directed squarely at him alone.

The news of Perry's continued idling in Iowa polls yesterday raises further questions about whether or not the Texas governor will push on to South Carolina after the caucuses.

Asked by a reporter today if there's any caucus night scenario in which Perry doesn't continue the race, he responded "Well that's God's will. There might be an outcome that He decides that I wouldn't go on"

"Is God caucusing?" came the followup.

Perry, smiling, replied, "I'm pretty sure He will be.

Prepare for Jan. 3's Iowa caucuses and the Jan. 10 New Hampshire primary with NBC News' definitive guide of the history, tradition and statistics surrounding these nominating contests.

The guide below (view as a .pdf here) contains a complete rundown of this year's primary calendar, and a look back at the political events to have govern the past year. It also breaks down the way delegates are apportioned to candidates throughout the GOP primary.

It dives even further into the history and demographics guiding the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, and includes data from the 2008 caucuses and primaries, too.

If you buy the new CNN/Time poll and the other anecdotal evidence of growing crowds and newfound swagger, Mitt Romney is on the verge of winning next week's Iowa caucuses.

And he could do it with the same percentage -- 25% -- that gave him a second-place finish in Iowa four years ago.

If that happens, it would mean that Romney -- who supported abortion rights just six years ago, who enacted an individual health-care mandate in Massachusetts, and who raised revenues to balance his state's budget -- would be thisclose to wrapping up his party's presidential nomination.

So why are his GOP presidential rivals attacking each other and not Romney?

Consider some of today's activity:

-- Rick Perry is up with a new TV ad hitting Bachmann, Gingrich, Paul, and Santorum for their current or previous service in Congress. But it makes no mention of Romney.

-- Perry, while campaigning in Iowa today, called Santorum a "prolific earmarker" who "voted for the Bridge to Nowhere" and "loaded up on Pennsylvania pork," per NBC's Carrie Dann.

-- And Jon Huntsman's campaign has a new web video hitting Paul for those racially charged newsletters.

And this all raises the point we raised in First Thoughts this morning: Romney can win Iowa with just 25% if his rivals split up the other 75%.

All across Iowa next Tuesday, tens of thousands of Republican voters will travel through a chilly Midwestern night to the warmth of a local church or gymnasium for caucus meetings to select presidential candidates, the first voting in the 2012 election campaign.

These Midwestern, mostly white voters hardly resemble America as a whole, and their voting system puzzles most people. Yet Iowa holds substantial sway over how the nation chooses the president.

Recommended: First Thoughts: Why not Santorum? 

"Iowa will choose the next president of the United States in their early caucuses," Republican hopeful Michele Bachmann said recently. "This is the cannon shot."

The caucuses — essentially community meetings — have served as a launching pad to the nomination, and often to the White House, for the past 40 years, though they've been around since the 1840s. Candidates tend to lavish attention on Iowa, hoping that a good showing will give them a burst of publicity to improve their chances in New Hampshire, which votes Jan. 10, and in other early voting states.

It's this contest that helped propel Republican George W. Bush and Democrat Al Gore to their parties' nominations in 2000. It also helped Democrat John Kerry become Bush's challenger in 2004. And the caucuses gave Democrat Barack Obama his first win in 2008, though Mike Huckabee won on the Republican side, not the eventual GOP nominee, John McCain.

The caucus process seems arcane and mysterious, even to people in Iowa. That is in part because most people don't even participate. About 359,000 people — 17 percent of registered voters in Iowa — showed up for Democratic and Republican caucuses in 2008. Turnout will certainly be lower this year, since Obama is unopposed. And the GOP turnout may not exceed the record-setting 120,000 attendees that the party's contest saw four years ago.

Caucuses are held in all of the state's 1,774 voting precincts, some in remote spots where only a handful of voters gather, others in big community centers or schools that host several precincts under one roof. In all, Republicans will gather in about 800 locations.

This relatively small number of voters, and their overwhelmingly white makeup, routinely bring Iowa's caucuses under attack by outsiders who want more clout for their own states. Only 5 percent of Iowa's electorate is Hispanic and only 3 percent is black, compared with a national electorate that is 16 percent Hispanic and 12 percent black.

For their part, Iowans jealously guard their first-in-the-nation nominating contests.

While both parties in Iowa use the caucus system to choose candidates, Republicans and Democrats go about things differently.

For the GOP, the caucuses are simply a straw poll, meaning the results are not binding. While Democrats use the caucuses to choose delegates who are expected to support their favored candidate, Republicans handle that later at county and district conventions.

After electing a temporary chair to run the meeting and a secretary to record the proceedings, any Republican who chooses can briefly speak in favor of a candidate. Ballots are then passed out and participants mark their choices in private. Those ballots are quickly counted and the results called into party headquarters, where they are posted online as they are received.

Any Republican voter can participate, including those who register when they arrive at the event. People too young to vote can also take part if they will be 18 by the general election.

Democrats, when there are multiple candidates, take a more convoluted approach.

Democrats break into preference groups at their caucuses, publicly declaring which candidate they favor. Candidates must get support from 15 percent of those attending the caucus in order to receive votes. Once they break into those groups, activists try to attract those whose candidates have fallen short of the 15 percent threshold.

After the results are reported to party headquarters, the numbers are run through a formula that changes the value of votes based on a county-by-county analysis of Democratic performance in the last gubernatorial and presidential elections.

"The Republican caucuses and Democratic caucuses are two different beasts," said Democratic strategist Phil Roeder. "In the big picture, it makes for a very different result."

Democratic strategist Jerry Crawford put it another way: "Democrats always like to make things more difficult."

Although the Republicans have a simpler system, caucuses by both parties require more time and greater participation than in a primary election.

Activists said that level of commitment means that for a candidate to be successful, he or she must make connections with voters, then build an organization that can get them to their precinct gatherings.

"People still expect to see the candidates in person," said Steve Scheffler, who heads the influential Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition. "The candidates who have spent the most time here will benefit."

Alex Wong / Getty Images

WASHINGTON, DC - OCTOBER 07: Republican presidential candidate and former U.S .Sen. Rick Santorum, R-Pa., addresses the Values Voter Summit, hosted by Family Research Council Action (FRC Action), 2011 October 7, 2011 in Washington, DC.

Santorum surges in new poll, but that surge could be short lived… Breaking down Iowa’s conservative vs. non-conservative vote… Romney’s playing to win in Iowa… What we learned in our Gingrich interview… Where have the Palins/Cains/Huckabees/DeMints gone?... And Kucinich vs. Kaptur in Ohio.

Read Thursday's original First Thoughts: Why not Santorum?

*** Why not Santorum? If you believe the new CNN/Time poll numbers out of Iowa -- and some are questioning the survey's methodology -- then Rick Santorum is the latest GOP presidential candidate to begin to surge, jumping 11 points in less than a month. And, in some ways, the surge is fitting. After all, he is a more consistent conservative than the other candidates (especially Romney, Paul, and Gingrich); he has busted his tail campaigning throughout Iowa the old fashioned way (one county, church, Pizza Ranch and coffee house at a time); and he's been a consistently solid performer at the debates. What’s more, he’s won statewide in an important swing state TWICE (though also lost there badly in 2006), and he’s a big hawk on national security and Iran (an issue that could become bigger and bigger in the days ahead). So why not Santorum? In these ways, his surge seems to make more sense than Gingrich’s did a month ago.

Recommended -- Surging Santorum: I know how to win tough elections

*** And why his surge might be short lived: But here's the big reason why Santorum’s surge might be short lived, even if he's able to maintain it through Jan. 3: Like Gingrich and Cain before him, he lacks the organization and money to compete for the long haul. In addition, he’s viewed as a bit too conservative, especially on social issues (one example: on contraception). Santorum was on “TODAY” this morning, displaying his conservative credentials. “What I say I’m going to do is what I’ve done in the past… We’ve got the record to back it up.”

*** Iowa’s conservative vs. non-conservative vote: In that CNN/Time poll, Romney is in first place among likely caucus-goers at 25% (up five points from earlier in the month), Paul is in second at 22% (also up five), Santorum is at 16% (up 11), Gingrich is at 14% (down a whopping 19 points), Perry at is at 11% (up two), and Bachmann is at 9% (also up two). But look at those numbers this way: When you add up the percentages for the conservative/evangelical bloc of Santorum/Gingrich/Perry/Bachmann, you get 50%, versus the combined 47% for the moderate/establishment/outsider bloc of Romney/Paul. In a way, this explains last night’s defection by former Bachmann Iowa state chairman Kent Sorenson to Team Paul. If four GOP candidates are dividing up that 50% conservative/evangelical bloc, then Romney is likely to win this contest. But if it’s three -- or even two -- dividing up the 50%, you can see how Romney could lose.

*** Romney’s playing to win in Iowa: Yet everything we’ve seen in the last week or two suggests that Romney is playing to win in Iowa. The latest sign: The Des Moines Register is reporting that Romney will hold a post-caucus party in Des Moines. “The next morning, the former governor will do press interviews before flying to New Hampshire, the next state on the voting calendar and a crucial contest for Romney.” Folks, that is playing to win. Talk about confidence The safe move -- and the one that seemed telegraphed a few weeks ago -- would be to travel to the friendly confines of New Hampshire before or immediately after the caucuses, to downplay their importance and do the morning shows from Manchester, NH. But his campaign is now playing them up (and finishing anywhere outside of the top spot or JUST behind Ron Paul would be embarrassing). Here’s another sign of increased confidence: Team Romney is up with a new 60-second TV ad, which is taken straight out his stump speech. And get this: The campaign has approximately 1,000 advertising points on the air in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines. That’s playing to win.

*** What we learned from our interview with Gingrich: We learned a few things when one of us interviewed Gingrich in Iowa yesterday. He said he needs to finish only in the top four in Iowa but then win South Carolina. “You have to be in top three or four,” Gingrich said. “This is so bunched and confused you could have 100 votes separating -- you've got to come out of here credible enough.” When asked if he needs to win Iowa or New Hampshire, he answered no. "You need to win South Carolina... [E]veryone who has won South Carolina has been the nominee. Every single one." He said -- honestly -- that no one would pick him as a VP choice. “I am too strong a personality. Would you want to be the presidential nominee with me as your vice presidential nominee?... I believe in very bold, very decisive change.” And he admitted that he maintains a relationship with his first wife. “With my first wife we have a relationship because we share two daughters and two grandchildren. I think it is very respectful on both sides.” His second wife? “We don’t have a relationship.”

*** Where have all the conservative voices gone? Here’s a question worth asking: Where are all the endorsements, especially from prominent conservatives? Has anyone heard a peep from Sarah Palin? What about Herman Cain? Mike Huckabee still hasn’t endorsed anyone. And neither has Sen. Jim DeMint. In fact, a DeMint spokesman tells First Read that the senator won’t be endorsing anyone, that DeMint announced it a month ago, and that it’s not changing. So at the very time when Romney appears like he’s close to clinching the GOP nomination -- and maybe in January -- some of the top conservative/Tea Party voices are remaining silent. We’ve come a LONG WAY since Palin crashed Romney’s June campaign announcement in New Hampshire and took a shot at his health-care law at Bunker Hill.

*** Kucinich vs. Kaptur: Lastly, we have ourselves a good Democratic House primary to watch next year. Yesterday, liberal Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D) announced that he will primary Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) after he lost his seat in redistricting. Kucinich had explored the possibility of trying to run for a seat in Washington state (which could end up hurting him in the Buckeye State), but he eventually decided on Kaptur’s seat. “Our campaign will focus on jobs and peace - supporting Ohioans and challenging Washington,” Kucinich said in an fundraising email yesterday.

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 5 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 12 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 23 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 33 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 37 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 68 days
Countdown to Election Day: 315 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

Elise Amendola / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman speaks during a town hall in Pelham, N.H., Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011.

PELHAM N.H. -- On his first day back on the trail since Christmas, former Utah governor Jon Huntsman stepped far beyond the boundaries of his usually polite stump speech to repeatedly slam Ron Paul as "unelectable" because of "out there" views on foreign policy. Huntsman is the latest candidate to join an intensifying Republican crescendo of criticism of the Texas Congressman as the Iowa caucuses approach.

"He is not electable at the end of the day. Let's be real about it," Huntsman told more than 150 voters at a town hall meeting in southern New Hampshire. "I'm not an isolationist. I don't share the Ron Paul world view. I am a realist."

Paul currently commands a strong second place position in the lead up to the January 3 Iowa contest.

Huntsman dubbed Paul's positions on Iran and American military presence overseas as "out there enough" to be harmful to U.S. national security. With issues like Iran "on the ascent," Huntsman warned Iran would become the "transcendent foreign policy challenge of the decade."

Huntsman didn't stop there. "Things like legalizing drugs -- I just don't think this is a position that is going to sell well," Huntsman told reporters on Wednesday night. "I just don't think he's going to get enough mainstream support to win."

'Make the math work'
When asked by NBC News, Huntsman declined to say whether he would support Paul if he does indeed become GOP nominee, bristling at a hypothetical scenario. Front-runner Mitt Romney has committed to voting for Paul if the latter becomes the Republican party's choice. Gingrich has declared he would not support Paul over disagreement on foreign and domestic policies.

"I'm just making a case for electability," Huntsman said. "You know at the end of the day we've just got to win back some people who actually voted for Barack Obama, just to make the math work. So who at the end of the day is the most electable? I believe I'm the most electable candidate in the race right now."

However, current polls indicate Huntsman has a long uphill battle to win in New Hampshire. He placed a distant fourth place here, the state in which he has centered his campaign efforts. According to a poll by CNN and Time magazine published Wednesday, the former ambassador to China sits at 9 percent of likely Republican support while Romney leads with 44 percent, followed by Paul at 17 percent and Gingrich with 16 percent in the Granite State.

Huntsman -- who until Wednesday night rarely disagreed with his GOP opponents by name -- added that the recently-discovered controversial newsletters published under Paul's name in the 1990s also undercut his legitimacy as a candidate.

"You gotta own up to that history and ultimately he is going to have to explain that to the American people if he wants to get enough support to be a legitimate player," said Huntsman.

Paul recently responded to the newsletters, saying that he was not aware of the content at the time and disavowed the remarks inside his namesake publication.

When asked if Paul's explanation was adequate, Huntsman replied, "Not so far."

Huntsman's long game was also questioned tonight as he kicked off a packed campaign schedule that leads up to January 10 primary. When a voter asked Huntsman about his failure to collect enough signatures to appear on the Virginia primary ballot, he brushed it off.

"I'm not too bothered about that," Huntsman said. "Our philosophy has always been, if we come out of New Hampshire with a head of steam, we're going to well in South Carolina, we're going to do well in Florida, in which case you're going to get the early delegate states who are going to want to be with the most electable candidate."

Updated at 10:12 p.m.

One of the most prominent Iowa supporters of Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann's presidential campaign jumped ship late Wednesday, announcing just days before the state's Jan. 3 caucus that he would instead back Texas Rep. Ron Paul.

Iowa state Sen. Kent Sorenson, one of three Iowa co-chairmen for Bachmann's campaign, made an appearance at a Veterans for Ron Paul event this evening where he endorsed the Texas congressman in Tuesday's caucuses.

Sorenson, in a statement distributed by Paul's campaign, said he had "an immense amount of respect" for Bachmann, but had essentially judged her to have fallen out of contention in the caucuses.

"I believe we have a clear choice here in Iowa and, I believe, across the country," he told NBC News in an interview after the event.
"All the recent polling is showing that Ron is in a neck and neck race with Mitt Romney.  I believe that we have a real opportunity to elect a constitutional conservative."

Sorenson further characterized his decision as a "spur-of-the-moment" one.

Bachmann accused Sorenson of being a sell-out in a statement released Wednesday evening.

"Kent Sorenson personally told me he was offered a large sum of money to go to work for the Paul campaign," she said, accusing Paul of trying to stymie her campaign's momentum. "Kent said to me yesterday that 'everyone sells out in Iowa, why shouldn't I,' then he told me he would stay with our campaign. The Ron Paul campaign has to answer for its actions."

In a follow-up interview, Sorenson categorically denied having received any offer of compensation by Paul's campaign.

"Listen, that's absurd. Like I said before, people on this campaign supported me in my race. They worked tirelessly for me. They stuffed envelopes, they door knocked for me," he said. "I feel like I'm coming home to them."

While he hasn't been particularly busy on the campaign trail for the Minnesota congresswoman, Sorenson was missing from a Bachmann campaign stop this afternoon in Osceola, Iowa; he told NBC News at a subsequent event in Indianola that he hadn't been on the Bachmann trail earlier today because he was having a root canal. Both events preceded his appearance this evening with Paul.

The defection carries a degree of symbolic importance, however. Sorenson was one of the first people to join the Bachmann campaign outside of her DC and Minnesota staff. In fact, even before Bachmann made the final decision to get in the race, he was urging her to run. Sorenson was also involved when Bachmann's closest political advisers from Minnesota and D.C. bolted the campaign, saying they disagreed on Iowa strategy.

The news came after a new CNN/TIME poll released Wednesday showed Bachmann in last place, at nine percent among Republican likely caucus-goers, among Republicans actively competing in the Jan. 3 contest. Paul, by contrast, trailed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney by just three points -- good enough for second place, and within the poll's margin of error.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney may well be the emerging front-runner heading into Tuesday's Iowa caucuses, according to a new poll of Hawkeye State Republicans likely to participate in the contest.

Romney enjoys a slight advantage over Texas Rep. Ron Paul, according to a CNN/TIME poll released Wednesday; former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who's been pummeled by ads in the state, has fallen to fourth -- behind former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum.

Romney also enjoys a commanding lead over other Republican candidates in New Hampshire.

Twenty-five percent of likely caucus-goers said they would choose Romney. Paul was the choice of 22 percent, while 16 percent named Santorum, and 14 percent named Gingrich. Eleven percent said they would support Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and nine percent back Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann, the winner of August's straw poll.

Former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman, who's not competing in the state, ranks as the choice of one percent of Iowa Republicans.

The polls reflect shifting political terrain in Iowa since the release of polls earlier this month, which showed Gingrich ahead of his GOP challengers in Iowa. An NBC News-Marist poll released Dec. 4 found Gingrich leading as the preference of 21 percent of likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney at 18 percent and Paul at 17 percent. The Des Moines Register's Iowa poll showed similar results.

(A new NBC News-Marist poll of the Iowa caucuses will be released later this week.)

In the intervening weeks, the different candidates -- along with super PACs acting on their behalf -- have spent millions on ads in the state. Arguably the most significant expenditures have been made by Restore our Future, a pro-Romney super PAC that has run ads castigating Gingrich, and the Paul campaign, which has also spent to promote the libertarian-minded candidate, and in opposition to Romney and Gingrich.

Santorum has also been the beneficiary of increased social conservative suppoprt, most notably from Bob Vander Plaats, the head of The Family Leader, who endorsed the former senator independent of his group.

The new figures also underscore the fluidity of the GOP field ahead of the Jan. 3 caucus. Gingrich has slid over the past month just as Herman Cain and Bachmann -- who had each led in Iowa at one point -- had faded. The poll points to the possibility of even more shifting in the final days of the Iowa campaign: 54 percent of likely caucus-goers said they will definitely support the candidate they named, but 43 percent said they might change their mind.

Once Iowa's contest is decided, the candidates will head to New Hampshire, the host of the nation's first primary and the cycle's second nominating contest.

Forty-four percent of likely Republican primary voters in New Hampshire said they would back Romney. Paul places second, at 17 percent, followed by Gingrich at 16 percent, Huntsman at nine percent, Santorum at four percent, Bachmann at three percent and Perry at two percent.

Fifty-one percent of New Hampshire primary voters said they've made up their mind, while 45 percent said they may change their mind -- offering hope to the winner of Iowa's caucuses to use a win there as a springboard heading into the Granite State.

The polls, conducted Dec. 21-24 and Dec. 26-27 by ORC, have a 4.5 percent margin of error for the Iowa results, and a four percent margin of error for the New Hampshire results.

Susan Walsh / AP file

House Speaker John Boehner of Ohio, surrounded by Republican House members speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, Tuesday, Dec. 20, 2011.

Democrats and Republicans have spent the year fruitlessly debating who has the better jobs plan.

But no matter which party has controlled Congress or the White House, the federal government itself has remained a reliable job creator for the past ten years. That could change if Republicans succeed in passing a bill that they have put on the House calendar for the New Year.

A House panel approved legislation sponsored by freshman Rep. Mick Mulvaney (R-S.C.) that would achieve budget savings by reducing the size of the federal workforce. Mulvaney's bill calls for attrition to reduce the federal civilian workforce by 10 percent by fiscal year 2015. And in order to try to ensure that the government doesn’t simply replace workers with contractors, the bill specifies that the amount spent on contract workers should be reduced by the same amount as the savings generated from shrinking the federal workforce.

The bill, which the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee approved on a nearly party-line vote, would cut an estimated $35 billion from 2012 to 2016.

That would mark a significant shift. The federal government easily outpaced the private sector as a job creator during the 2008-09 recession.

The number of private-sector jobs peaked at more than 115 million in January of 2008, and has since declined to 110 million as of last month -- a five percent drop.

By contrast, there were 14 percent more federal executive branch employees in September of 2011 than in September of 2007. There are now about 2.1 million of them.

The pace of federal job growth has slowed this year: the number of federal executive branch jobs grew by about 0.8 percent from September 2010 to September 2011. (By contrast, private-sector job growth, at a rate of 1.7 percent, has outpaced government job growth over the last year.)

Democrats have already complained that projected cuts to federal spending -- which they say helped prop up the economy during the throes of the recession – will do damage to the economy.

And now, Democrats argue, federal workers are being asked to unfairly shoulder the burden of the budget deficit.

“This bill unfairly targets the federal workforce. Although federal employees were not the cause of the financial crisis or our nation’s budget deficit, they are being asked to shoulder a disproportionate share of the burden of solving our fiscal problems. Federal employees are already struggling through a two-year pay freeze that will deprive them of $60 billion over the next ten years," said Democratic members of the oversight panel.

But the GOP majority pointed out that cutting the federal headcount is in line with a recommendation made by the Simpson-Bowles fiscal commission. And it cited Andrew Biggs, an economist at the conservative American Enterprise Institute, who testified that if federal workers’ productivity had tracked the economy at large, “a workforce around 16 percent smaller than today’s could provide services comparable to those of federal employees in 1969.”

NEWTON, Iowa -- Ron Paul's appearance at the Iowa Speedway here drew the most media attention of the campaign season -- television and print journalists, as well as photographers, made the room tough to navigate.

Paul told the audience he wants to be the first president in history where the federal government shrunk -- instead of expanded -- "by thousands of pages and regulations."

On foreign policy, Paul asked, "How long do we have to stay in Korea?" He went on to explain how the U.S. military has had a presence in that country "since I was in high school." He also said Americans have been subsidizing Japan since World War II.

On Iraq, Paul said it is "so sad what's happening," telling the audience that before the war there, Iraqis were "arch enemies" of Iran; now they are "buddying up."

He said that in order to solve the nation's financial problems, Americans need to ask, "What should the role of government be?"

"Police the world, run your personal lives, and run economy? If that's what you want, this can't work."

The Texas congressman reminded the audience about the upcoming caucuses and said a message will be sent, telling voters that it's a choice between him or the status quo.

One audience member said he was a veteran and wanted Paul as the commander-in-chief. Paul responded by telling the man he served five years in the military, voted against the wars, and receives more donations from members of the military than all other candidates combined.

Asked about going back to the gold standard, Paul said he'd "like to go forward with a gold standard" and let the markets help decide.

Asked about federal funding of the Peace Corps, Paul said the organization is "not authorized under the constitution," and those responsibilities "should be done through voluntary groups."

And on eliminating the Energy Department, Paul was asked who would control nuclear waste. He said the Defense Department would take care of those responsibilities.

Jeff Haynes / Reuters

Republican presidential candidates, L-R, Texas Governor Rick Perry, former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney and former U.S. Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich, R-Ga., pose before the Republican Party presidential candidates debate in Sioux City, Iowa, December 15, 2011.

Look out for some whacky results in the race for delegates in the Republican presidential primaries and caucuses. There might even be a state or two where the second-place candidate gets the most delegates, starting with Tuesday's caucuses in Iowa.

New GOP rules require states that hold nominating contests before April to award delegates proportionally. That usually means a candidate who gets 40 percent of the vote gets 40 percent of the delegates. But not always.

The rules give states a lot of leeway to define proportional, and some states have been pretty creative. For example, in Ohio, the candidate who gets the most votes in each congressional district wins three delegates. Ohio has 16 congressional districts based on the latest census, so 48 delegates will be awarded this way.

First Thoughts: The all-out brawl for Iowa begins 

An additional 15 delegates will be awarded proportionally, based on statewide results. Candidates must get at least 20 percent of the statewide vote to qualify for these delegates. Under this system, it is possible in a close race for a candidate to narrowly win the most congressional districts — and the most delegates — but come in second in the overall statewide vote, said Bob Bennett, a member of the Republican National Committee from Ohio.

Early on, battles over small numbers of delegates won't get much attention because candidates are more concerned about winning contests and building momentum. But if the race continues into late spring, like the 2008 battle between Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton, delegate totals become much more important.

A tight race could draw a lot of scrutiny over obscure issues like this: If you qualify for 7.5 delegates under a proportional allocation, do you round up to eight or round down to seven? (In Ohio and other states you round up to eight. In Nevada, which is holding GOP caucuses Feb. 4, party officials are still working on those details.)

"All these rules are important in close races," Bennett said. "If you have a blowout, a sure winner, they don't matter as much."

In most national polls, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich are the front-runners for the GOP nomination. In Iowa, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas also is polling well, raising the possibility of a split vote.

The Iowa caucuses on Tuesday begin the process in that state that will result in 25 delegates being selected for the national convention. At the caucuses, voters will cast ballots in a presidential straw poll, and those results will get the most attention on election night.

Caucus-goers also will elect delegates to county conventions, who in turn will elect delegates to congressional district conventions and the state party convention in June. These are the conventions where delegates to the GOP national convention in Tampa, Fla., are selected.

Each of the four congressional districts will elect three delegates to the national convention. They will also appoint two members to a slate committee, which will choose 13 additional delegates. The slate is voted on at the party's state convention in June.

The system puts a premium on getting the most votes in individual congressional districts. If a candidate's supporters can control a congressional district convention, they can choose national delegates and slate committee members who support their candidate.

In a tight, three-way race, it is possible for a candidate to narrowly win two of the four congressional districts — putting him or her in position to win the most delegates — but come in second in overall votes statewide.

"The delegates are going to reflect the division within the party itself," said John Ryder, a member of the Republican National Committee from Tennessee who chaired the panel that wrote the new proportional rule. "The end result is nobody comes out of a proportional state with a clear mandate, unless of course they do, which would only happen if a candidate generates commanding support among Republican voters."

A total of 2,286 delegates are slated to attend the Republican National Convention in August, and 1,144 will be needed to claim the nomination, according to the Republican National Committee. No candidate can reach that total before April, though a dominant front-runner could build a commanding lead by then.

In the meantime, the primary calendar is full of quirks. South Carolina (Jan. 21), and Florida (Jan. 31), will award all their delegates to the candidate who gets the most votes, even though they are holding their contests before April. Both states already lost half their delegates for holding early contests, so the state parties decided to make them winner-take-all. The RNC says there are no additional penalties for violating the proportional rules.

Michigan's plan for awarding delegates is very similar to Ohio's. But Michigan, which holds its primary Feb. 28, lost half its delegates because it scheduled its primary before March 6, also known as Super Tuesday. GOP rules allow only four states to hold nominating contests before Super Tuesday: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. And those states weren't supposed to schedule contests before February.

Michigan started with 59 delegates, but now has only 30. Nevertheless, party officials plan to award 56 delegates based on the primary (the other three will be the state's RNC members), and simply reduce each candidate's total by half. That poses several problems: Half of 56 isn't quite 30, and what if a candidate wins 25 delegates? Do they get 12 or 13? GOP rules don't allow fractions of delegates.

"We'll work that out once we get closer to choosing the delegates who will go," said Matt Frendewey, spokesman for the Michigan Republican Party.

The Ron Paul campaign released another ad this morning, a flashy 30-second spot titled, “Washington Machine." It begins airing today on Iowa and New Hampshire TV, according to the Paul campaign.

An announcer says, “Serial hypocrites" (over an image of Newt Gingrich) "and flip-floppers" (over an image of Mitt Romney) "can’t clean up the mess” in Washington.

And over pictures of Ron Paul: "One man stands alone," pointing out that Paul will cut $1 trillion in his first year and balance the budget in three years. “Consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle," the announcer says.

It ends with "Ron Paul: the one we’ve been looking for.”

URBANDALE, Iowa -- Texas Gov. Rick Perry on Wednesday warned that President Obama's health reform law could result in the death of ill patients, relating the story of a cancer patient he met Tuesday at a campaign stop in Creston, Iowa.

"She came up to me and she said 'Governor, if you don't get rid of Obamacare, I'm dead," he recounted. "She said they will never take care of me. And that's a powerful testimony by that lady."

The governor, who won cheers for his promise to use an executive order to gut the law, though most of the health reform law's major components haven't gone into effect yet. Perry spoke to a packed house at the biweekly breakfast meeting of the Westside Conservative Club at the Machine Shed Restaurant in Urbandale.

Perry, a veteran who served in the United States Air Force, also unveiled a new swipe at Obama for failing to schedule a "simple parade" for soldiers returning from Iraq.

"It really disturbs me that nearly after 10 years of war that this president wouldn't welcome home those heroes with a simple parade," he said, briefly appearing to become emotional. "Maybe it's because this war is unpopular with the Democrats, I don't know. But Mr. President, our soldiers come first."

The Texas governor, who has been haunted by a memorable debate gaffe from the CNBC debate last month, found himself in a refreshing position at the start of the event: correcting someone else's oops.

Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio, a top surrogate for Perry, especially on the issue of immigration, introduced the candidate at the breakfast meeting, beginning his remarks with a shout out to the "Buckeyes."

The home team for fans of the University of Iowa is the Hawkeyes; the Buckeyes are the mascot of Ohio State University. The crowd laughed and booed as Arpaio joked, "It's 3 o'clock Phoenix time."

Taking the microphone minutes later, Perry leapt in for the save, referencing another college team with dedicated fans in the state.

"Actually, there's probably some Cyclones in this crowd," he said, referencing Iowa State's team, after teasing Arpaio for the error.

/

Republican presidential candidate, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney shakes hands with a child during a campaign stop at Elly's Tea and Coffee in Muscatine, Iowa, Wednesday, Dec. 28, 2011.

The all-out brawl for Iowa begins… Pro-Gingrich Super PAC to the rescue… Paul’s latest TV ad… Perry desperately trying to woo evangelical voters… Did 2011 hurt the GOP’s brand?... Fast facts about the Iowa caucuses: looking at turnout… Don’t lose sight of what’s happening in Iran… And Ben Nelson’s announcement yesterday really doesn’t change much.

Read Wednesday's original First Thoughts: The all-out brawl for Iowa begins

*** The all-out brawl for Iowa begins: From all the activity on the campaign trail yesterday, it was almost as if the GOP candidates and their campaigns woke up from the Christmas holiday and realized that the Iowa caucuses are just a week away. We saw Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum blast Ron Paul, with Gingrich even saying that he wouldn’t vote for Paul if he becomes the GOP nominee. Text messages sent to Iowa Republicans questioned Mitt Romney’s anti-abortion bona fides, according to NBC’s Alex Moe. Romney, as NBC’s Jo Ling Kent reported, compared Gingrich’s inability to get on Virginia’s ballot to “Lucille Ball and the chocolate factory,” even as he focused most of his fire on President Obama. And late last night, we learned that a new pro-Gingrich Super PAC, Strong America Now, has sent direct mail pieces to Iowa Republicans calling Romney “the second-most dangerous man in America.” The all-out battle for Iowa is fully underway. 

*** A pro-Newt Super PAC to the rescue: In addition to the group Strong America Now, the primary pro-Gingrich Super PAC -- Winning Our Future -- is up with a new TV ad defending Gingrich and stating: “Don’t let the liberal Republican establishment pick our candidate.” But the $263,000 of airtime Winning Our Future has purchased in Iowa pales in comparison to the nearly $3 million that the pro-Romney Super PAC Restore Our Future has spent in the Hawkeye State so far. (That’s more than a 10-to-1 difference.) Here’s the updated ad spending in Iowa: Perry $4.3 million, Restore Our Future $2.8 million, Paul $2.3 million, Make Us Great Again $1.6 million, Gingrich $840,000, Red, White, and Blue Fund $330,000, and Winning Our Future $263,000.

*** “Ron Paul, the one we’ve been looking for”: Meanwhile, Paul has a brand-new TV ad for Iowa and New Hampshire, according to his campaign. The ad criticizes Gingrich for being a serial hypocrite and Romney for being a flip-flopper. And it concludes with this line: “Consistent, incorruptible, guided by faith and principle -- Ron Paul, the one we’ve been looking for.”

*** Perry desperately wooing evangelical voters: Don’t miss how Rick Perry is trying to out-Huckabee Huckabee in Iowa. As NBC’s Carrie Dann reported last night, Perry said that he has reversed his acceptance of abortion in some circumstances and now opposes it even in cases of rape and incest. When you take this change in position and add it to his rhetoric on the campaign trail and in his TV ads, you see a Perry who’s making a desperate attempt to woo evangelical voters in Iowa.

*** Did 2011 hurt the GOP’s brand? In today’s Washington Post, Dan Balz raises a very important question as look ahead to next year’s general election: Have the events of 2011 -- in Congress, in the states (like Florida, Ohio, and Wisconsin), and on the GOP presidential campaign trail -- hurt the Republican Party’s brand? “Republicans are united on many policy issues, but the tea party’s influence has pushed all the presidential candidates to the right. And Obama has seized the opportunity to argue to independent voters that, whatever their disappointment with his record, they should think twice before handing power to the Republicans.”

*** Fast facts about the Iowa caucuses: In our latest installment of facts you need to know about next week’s contest in the Hawkeye State, we look at the possible turnout. Bottom line: No one is quite sure how high turnout will be. On the one hand, Republican voters are fired up about the opportunity to defeat President Obama in 2012. On the other hand, the current field of GOP candidates is light on top-tier challengers. The question: Will it top the record-breaking turnout (nearly 120,000) from last cycle? Here are the past turnout numbers for the GOP Iowa caucuses:
2008: 118,411
2000: 85,761
1996 (last time Republicans were running against an incumbent Dem): 90,889
1988: 108,560
1980: 106,051

*** Don’t lose sight of what’s happening in Iran: The news coming out of Iran -- that it might block all oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to retaliate against U.S. economic sanctions -- is a reminder for all politicos that next year’s issue matrix could change in the blink of an eye. After all, how many people in Dec. 2007 were talking about the perilous state of the U.S. economy? In Dec. 2009, who could believe that Republicans (with power from the Tea Party) were set to win back control of the House? And in Dec. 2010, was anyone talking about the Arab Spring? A U.S. military confrontation with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz would certainly change the landscape of the 2012 presidential election, no matter how high the unemployment rate is.

*** Nelson’s announcement doesn’t change much: While Democratic Sen. Ben Nelson’s announcement yesterday that he would not to seek re-election next year was a blow to Democrats, it really doesn’t change the math or outlook for control of the Senate. First, Republicans already have a very realistic chance of winning a Senate majority next year (they need to net four pick-ups if Obama wins re-election, three if he doesn’t). Two, polls had shown that Nelson faced a difficult challenge to hold on to his seat, and it was already one of the GOP’s top pick-up opportunities. Three, if Obama wins re-election and if Elizabeth Warren beats Scott Brown in Massachusetts -- both very possible outcomes -- then Democrats have a VERY realistic chance of holding the Senate. Why? Because Obama and Warren wins would push the number the GOP needs to take control of the Senate to five, meaning that Dems could afford losing in ND, NE, MT, and MO. And because an Obama win likely means that Dem Senate candidates win in VA, OH, and WI. Bottom line: Nothing changed yesterday…

Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 6 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 13 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 24 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 34 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 38 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 69 days
Countdown to Election Day: 316 days

Click here to sign up for First Read emails.
Text FIRST to 622639, to sign up for First Read alerts to your mobile phone.
Check us out on Facebook and also on Twitter. Follow us @chucktodd, @mmurraypolitics, @DomenicoNBC, @brookebrower

Ron Paul wants to legalize pot and shut down the Federal Reserve. He thinks the federal government has no authority to outlaw abortion, no business bombing Iran to keep it from acquiring a nuclear weapon, and no justification to print money unless it's backed up by gold bars.

And he might win the Iowa caucuses.

The closer the first votes of the 2012 presidential campaign get, the more competitive the Texas congressman has become. It's a moment his famously fervent supporters have longed for. Plenty of others are asking: What's Ron Paul about, again?

As in his two prior quixotic campaigns for president, Paul has toiled for months as a fringe candidate best known for staking out libertarian positions. As every other Republican candidate lined up to attack President Barack Obama's health care law and to promise tax cuts, Paul again demanded audits of the Federal Reserve and a return to the gold standard.

Leading in some state polls, Paul is getting a look from mainstream voters in Iowa, where the 76-year-old obstetrician has emerged as a serious contender in the Jan. 3 caucuses — and in other early voting states, should he pull off a victory.

The sudden rush of attention to Paul's resume hasn't been kind. He's spent the past week disowning racist and homophobic screeds in newsletters he published decades ago, including one following the 1992 riots in Los Angeles that read, "Order was only restored in L.A. when it came time for the blacks to collect their welfare checks three days after rioting began."

"Everybody knows I didn't write them and they're not my sentiments, so it's sort of politics as usual," Paul said during a recent Iowa campaign stop.

Looking to cut into Paul's support, rivals laid into him on Tuesday.

In an interview on CNN, Newt Gingrich said Paul holds "views totally outside the mainstream of virtually every decent American." And Rick Santorum chided, "The things most Iowans like about Ron Paul are the things he's least likely to accomplish and the things most Iowans are worried about about Ron Paul are the things he can accomplish."

Paul returns to Iowa on Wednesday, giving his impressive grass-roots organization in the state a last chance to present, and perhaps defend, positions he's staked out over a long political career and reiterated during the 13 Republican debates held this year.

Paul has served a dozen terms in Congress as a Republican, but he espouses views that have made him the face of libertarianism in the U.S. He blames both Republicans and Democrats for running up the federal debt and opposes any U.S. military involvement overseas. He wants to bring home all troops from all U.S. bases abroad.

He vows to do away with five Cabinet-level departments — Commerce, Education, Energy, Housing and Urban Development, and Interior — and repeal the amendment to the Constitution that created the federal income tax. He opposes federal flood insurance and farm subsidies and wants to remove marijuana from the federal list of controlled substances while allowing states to decide how to regulate it.

He says he'll cut $1 trillion out of the first budget he offers as president. He doesn't believe in a border fence but says illegal immigrants shouldn't get a free education in public schools.

He's reliably described by political pundits as non-establishment, quirky, unorthodox. During a Republican debate in Sioux City, Iowa, earlier this month, Paul defended his views and rejected the idea that they make him unelectable.

"The important thing is, the philosophy I'm talking about is the Constitution and freedom, and that brings people together," Paul said. "It brings independents in the fold and it brings Democrats over on some of these issues."

Paul doesn't always side with the most extreme conservative proposals. When it comes to Gingrich's suggestion that judges could be hauled before Congress to explain their rulings, Paul joined other Republicans in dismissing the idea.

Paul's recent surge in Iowa isn't the first time the GOP establishment has been forced to pay attention to him. A fundraising blitz that netted $5 million in one day in 2008 led Republican operatives to weigh whether he was a bigger threat to siphon votes than previously thought.

Now he may be in his best position yet to do more than just steal votes.

"I see this philosophy as being very electable, because it's an American philosophy, it's the rule of law," Paul said.

obtained by NBC News

MASON CITY, Iowa – The Strong America Now Super PAC is sending direct mail pieces to Iowans this week in support of Newt Gingrich while attacking Mitt Romney – something the Gingrich campaign has vowed not to tolerate.

"Romney is the second most dangerous man in America and will perpetuate Obama's slide into financial crisis," one of at least two mailers from the Super PAC floating around the state reads. "Don't let Romney backers mislead you!" it continues.

"Newt Gingrich,” that same piece of literature reads, “Has the proven experience eliminating the deficit and making America prosperous."

obtained by NBC News

Another mailer from the Strong America Now Super PAC calls Gingrich "the right choice" and says he is the only candidate that has the track record to reduce the deficit. 

Romney, on the other hand, the ad reads, "has refused to sign a pledge to eliminate the deficit by the end of his first term in office… Romney's plan comes nowhere close to eliminating the federal deficit – at any point."

The former House Speaker has been very critical of Romney’s Super PAC, Restore Our Future, as it has been running endless negative television ads and mailing numerous anti-Gingrich campaign pieces.

Last Tuesday in Iowa, Gingrich even called on Romney to publicly demand his Super PACs only run positive ads.

"He can say that he condemns negative ads and I ask that PAC to run only positive ads. It is very simple. Anything short of that is bologna. We ought to understand these are his people, running his ads, doing his dirty work while he pretends to be above it," Gingrich said in Ottumwa, Iowa, on Dec. 20.

The Speaker's campaign would not comment on what seems to clearly be a pro-Gingrich Super PAC that is attacking Romney – one of the Strong America Now Super PAC mailers reads: "Newt Gingrich for president."

The purpose of the Strong America Now Super PAC mailers, according to the FEC website, is to support Gingrich and also "opposes Mitt Romney."

obtained by NBC News

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich suggested he might not vote for Ron Paul as the GOP presidential nominee versus President Obama in 2012.

Gingrich, in an interview Tuesday on CNN, assailed Paul as not serious and unelectable; Gingrich said the Texas congressman must answer for a series of newsletters published by his office that contained racist and anti-Semitic language.

"He's got to come up with some very straight answers to get somebody to take him seriously. Would I be willing to listen to him? Sure. I think the choice of Ron Paul or Barack Obama would be a very bad choice for America," Gingrich aid on CNN's "Situation Room with Wolf Blitzer" when asked if he would vote for Obama or Paul.

When first asked the question, Gingrich flatly responded with a "no," and later called the prospect of a general election matchup between Obama and Paul as presenting a "very hard choice."

"There will come a morning people won’t take him as a serious person," Gingrich said of Paul.

Gingrich has re-emerged Tuesday after the holiday break to take on a more aggressive tone in response to attacks by his GOP rivals. The former speaker's staff maintains that Gingrich is simply responding to attacks, and not violating his pledge to run a positive, attack-free campaign.

But Gingrich accused Paul of "systemic avoidance of reality" in his advertisements, and said that Paul would never win the nomination.

Those tough words toward Paul, who's surged into a top contender spot in Iowa's caucuses, come after a day in which Gingrich and his campaign assailed Mitt Romney as a "Massachusetts moderate."

Gingrich challenged Romney in the interview over the negative tack taken by his campaign toward Gingrich. Romney should be "man enough to own" that style of campaigning, Gingrich said.

If you're going to run a negative campaign...be man enough to own it."

Alex Wong / Getty Images file

U.S. Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) (C) answers questions from the media after he met with fellow Senate Democrats on a deal on payroll tax cut that has been struck with the Senate Republicans December 16, 2011 on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC. The Senate Democrats and Republicans have reached to a deal to extend the payroll tax cut holiday for two months.

First Read has confirmed, per a high-ranking Democratic source, that Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson, D, will NOT seek re-election in 2012.

Due to some tough polling numbers for Nelson, Democrats already had a pretty good chance of losing this seat next year. But Nelson's decision not to seek re-election makes it harder to keep the seat in the red state of Nebraska.

*** UPDATE *** That is, if the Democrats can't find a top-notch recruit. The same high-ranking Democratic source tells NBC News that former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey, D, is considering a run with Nelson's seat open.

And the source sends this shot at the conservative Nelson, who often voted with Republicans: "He will be the least missed member of the Democratic caucus next year."

First Read has confirmed, per a high-ranking Democratic source, that Nebraska Sen. Ben Nelson (D) will NOT seek re-election in 2012.

Due to some tough polling numbers for Nelson, Democrats already had a pretty good chance of losing this seat next year. But Nelson's decision not to seek re-election makes it harder to keep the seat in the red state of Nebraska.

*** UPDATE *** That is, if the Democrats can't find a top-notch recruit. The same high-ranking Democratic source tells NBC News that former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) is considering a run with Nelson's seat open.

And the source sends this shot at the conservative Nelson, who often voted with Republicans: "He will be the least missed member of the Democratic caucus next year."

DUBUQUE, Iowa -- Mitt Romney’s stance on abortion is being called into question a week out from the Iowa caucuses.

Republicans in Iowa received a text message to their cell phones very early Tuesday morning questioning Romney's anti-abortion credentials.

“Romney exposed at 2012 caucuses. Romney pro life??” the text one Iowan received at 4:00 am CST reads.

Upon calling the 515 area-code number the text message lists, an automated message on the other end includes hearing Romney’s answer during a debate when he ran for U.S. Senate 17 years ago.

“Mitt Romney on life,” an unidentified man’s voice says as the automated message begins.

“As a nation, we recognize the right of all people to believe as they want and not to impose our beliefs on other people,” Romney’s voice is heard saying next –- this comes from an Oct. 25, 1994 Massachusetts senate debate.

“I believe that abortion should be safe and legal in this country,” Romney continues. “I have since the time that my mom took that position when she ran in 1970 as a U.S. Senate candidate. I believe that since Roe v. Wade has been the law for 20 years that we should sustain and support it. And I sustain and support that law and the right of a women to make that choice.”

In 2005, Romney changed his position from supporting abortion rights to opposing them.

Neither the text message nor the automated message gives any indication who sent or paid for the messages.

The abortion issue plays very big with conservatives in Iowa. 2008 Iowa caucus winner, Mike Huckabee, even held a forum and movie premiere in Des Moines this month focusing on abortion. Romney did not attend, although Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Michele Bachmann, and Rick Perry did.

Here is video from C-Span from that '94 Massachusetts Senate debate where the response from Romney originates.

*** UPDATE *** Per NBC's Michelle Perry, Romney Communications Director Gail Gitcho responded on MSNBC's "Andrea Mitchell Reports" to these text messages questioning Romney's abortion stance.

Gitcho said abortion is the one substantial issue he has admitted he has changed his position. He is now pro-life, she said -- not something he is going to change his position on.

A pro-Gingrich Super PAC, Winning our Future, has purchased $256,000 of airtime in Iowa from Dec. 28 thru Jan. 3, according to NBC's ad-tracking sources.

But that $256,000 pales in comparison to the nearly $3 million that the pro-Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, has spent in the Hawkeye State so far.