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Subscribe to RSSPublished at 5 a.m. ET: Less than one month into his second term, President Barack Obama looks to complete the outlines of an ambitious agenda in his State of the Union address Tuesday night.
In his inaugural speech, the president telegraphed several initiatives he wants Congress to pursue and pass this year: gun control legislation, a bill to create a legalization process for many of the nation’s illegal immigrants, subsidies for renewable energy technologies and legislation to respond to climate change.
Obama will likely return to those topics Tuesday night, but the White House has signaled that this speech will focus more on the themes that dominated the past four years -- jobs and the economy -- with new initiatives aimed at improving the prospects of growth for both, and a particular emphasis on the middle class.
But any new policies or programs will have a cost to both present and future taxpayers, and it will take some time to figure out that cost because the president hasn’t yet presented his budget proposal to Congress. And when he does, the ongoing standoff between Republicans and Democrats over everything from how to continue funding the government to looming spending cuts still leaves plenty of uncertainty about any fiscal policy in Washington.
President Obama is set to focus on jobs and the economy during Tuesday's State of the Union. NBC's Peter Alexander reports.
Due a week ago, but not likely to appear until sometime next month, the president’s budget proposal is the detailed and lengthy (last year’s was 256 pages long) blueprint in which a president gives Congress and taxpayers all the specifics -- how much each new initiative will cost and what tax proposals he is offering to help to pay for his programs.
The budget document is the president’s attempt to direct spending policy for the coming fiscal year -- the one that starts on Oct. 1 -- and for the ten years beyond that.
This year there’s an air of unreality about the budget compared to, for instance, 2009 when the president’s Democratic allies controlled both the House and the Senate. Exactly four years ago, when Obama proposed to collect $646 billion in new revenues from auctioning off greenhouse gas emission allowances, there was a reasonable expectation that the proposal would become law and that the $646 billion would flow into the Treasury.
When Obama does deliver his budget proposal next month, the fiscal path forward will remain in an extraordinarily makeshift and unpredictable state.
Budget 'harder to predict' than ever
Veteran budget analyst Stan Collender wrote this week that even former congressional Budget Committee staffers who have spent their careers assessing budgets find that “the current situation is as complex, hard to read, and even harder to predict than any they’ve ever seen.”
The federal government is now operating on a six-month continuing resolution which keeps discretionary spending for departments and agencies at the prior year’s levels.
Mandatory spending for Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid and federal employee retirement benefits is driven by demographics, enrollment, and the cost of medical procedures. It isn’t as controllable by Congress or the president.
The continuing resolution expires on March 27, leaving Obama and Congress only a few weeks to figure out what to do next. Another stopgap continuing resolution seems quite possible.
In addition, the Budget Control Act requires $85 billion in spending cuts to begin on March 1.
Illustrating just how unreal the current fiscal situation is, Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said in his farewell address last week at Georgetown University that if Congress passes another continuing resolution and it allows the spending cuts required by the Budget Control Act to take effect, then his department “will have to abruptly absorb in a period of about six months” $43 billion in spending cuts (known as the sequester). This will be on top of what Panetta thinks are inadequate spending levels in the continuing resolution -- what he described as “a $35 billion shortfall in operating funds for our active forces.”
Kevin Lamarque / REUTERS
President Barack Obama speaks from the briefing room of the White House in Washington Feb. 5, 2013.
Panetta explained that the Pentagon has been spending money at a relatively robust rate level so far this fiscal year. “We assumed, silly us, that we would get a 2013 appropriation, what we requested,” he said. “And so we're operating on this hope that 2013 appropriations bill will be passed. It hasn't been passed.” And yet the Defense Department has been spending money as if it would be passed.
With both the sequester and another continuing resolution looking possible, Panetta is now facing, and leaving his successor with, “a serious disruption in defense programs and a sharp decline in our military readiness.”
Reminding his audience how big an employer the Department of Defense is and how large an economic effect it has, Panetta said, “If sequester happens, let me tell you some of the results. We will furlough as many as 800,000 DOD civilians around the country for up to 22 days. They could face a 20 percent cut in their salary.”
Other departments and agencies would need to take similar steps.
Given such a crisis atmosphere, one could see why Obama’s proposals for new programs and new spending might get overshadowed and might stand little chance of being adopted.
Disaster spending
And yet Obama and members of Congress have been extremely lucky in one sense. The last few years has been a good time to be in charge of fiscal policy, thanks to ultra-low interest rates which mean an ultra-low cost of financing the federal government’s borrowing.
That will end in the next several years. The Congressional Budget Office, in its annual budget forecast last week, projected that what the federal government must spend on net interest payments will more than double in the next five years and will nearly quadruple by the end of the 10-year budget forecasting period. Instead of spending six cents of every dollar to pay interest on the debt, the government will be spending 14 cents of every dollar on interest payments in 2023.
By 2020 the government will be spending more on interest than it will spend on national defense.
In the short term, the good news for Obama is that the economy is recovering and with that recovery has come a surge in federal tax revenues, which are up 12 percent in the first four months of Fiscal Year 2013. Individual income tax revenues are up by 16 percent so far in FY2013.
Keep in mind that revenue surge has come even before the full impact of the $700 billion tax increase that Obama signed into law on Jan. 2. The increased revenues from that tax increase will show up in withholding from paychecks in 2013 and also will be seen in the income tax payments Americans must make when they file their tax returns in April 2014.
Given the need Obama sees for even more revenues, don’t be surprised if you see some of the very same ideas in the State of the Union and the budget blueprint that he proposed back in 2009 in his very first budget proposal, such as taxing a form of investment income called “carried interest” as if it were ordinary income and eliminating of certain tax preferences for oil and gas firms.
But while some things might be the same as in 2009, in one part of the budget one thing is quite different: in Obama’s first budget proposal in 2009 he and his number-crunchers projected that in the current fiscal year, FY 2013, the federal government would need to spend $20 billion on disaster relief. That disaster spending prediction will turn out to be far short of reality: Obama has already signed into a law a disaster relief bill for Hurricane Sandy that will cost $50 billion -- and the hurricane season does not being until June 1.
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I read these things and see anything from gun control to social services being either cut or controlled, but nothing is said about our sending Billions yes BILLIONS to countries trying to kill us... WTF are we trying to do? We can let Bummer go on TV Night Talk shows and the ones during the day as well to push his agenda but we have to send monies to the countries that either support those idiot rebels or themselves trying to kill us.
Folks, wake up, ,,, now Bummer is trying to do the gun grab thing instead of enforcing the laws that exist. This will not end well at all for any of us here in the USA. For a Law Proffessor, he sure has his sites set on destroying the United States Constitution bit by bit, and yet he should kknow better. We are going to need those weapons to defend our homeland sooner than we have ever thought possible. Look at North Korea, third Nuk test but this time with a long range missle.. Has the writting appeared on your wall yet?
My suggestion is to go to ANY GUN SHOW and buy the weapons people on the floor are selling BEFORE Bummer stops that or tries to do it.
This is OUR United States and She is asking for help... Contact your reps in Congress and tell them what you think, I did.
Most taxpayers want someone else to pay the taxes.In state legislatures the favorite target is the tourists for you can see vast increases in bed taxes,rental car taxes,airports landing fees.
The Federal government enjoys passing the tax burdens onto the supposedly bankrupt states.
The problem remains the same,few if any people have respect for the normal workings of the public or private accountants.Like lawyers they give information for pay and good or bad information can be purchased.
It used to be accounting was a respected profession with a very hard licensing and testing procedure.
Now it should be taught along with creative writing for it is amazing how often agencies,corporations,professionals lose millions of dollars,or liabilities appear as vampires to strike fear and loathing into normally respectable institutions.
How many universities are broke despite an endowment of billions of dollars? How many doctors are squeaking by while owning planes,Mercedes,and yachts?How many players "work out" year around to earn their inflated sums?
I recall one year when I flew on five different bankrupt airlines.It's like annual going out of business sales.
Obama doesn't have a clue to the state of the union, nor does he care.
Polls are showing;
less than 1% rate it excellant\less than 1% rate it good
12% say they are worried about it
86% say it is in trouble
Perhaps...but the Liberal Brown Shirt Media is in the 1%..So, that is why they do everything they can to cover for President Obama...
A black guy will never fix our country,( I`m not being racist in any way), white guys will never help to do anything to get our economy in shape and credit it to a black person. This is the reality we live in. Unfortunately, Republicans did nothing to get a fit person to be elected to fix our country. I `m Democrat, and this is the first time in my life I`m disgusted with the Democrats.
I wonder what new lies Obozo will be spewing tonight to make his flock of sheep happy. The false messiah obozo has been shown to be corrupt, treasonous and a Liar.
Corrupt, treasonous and a Liar?
You just named the top three qualifications to run as a Republican canidate.
So obvioulsy President Obama has none of those three attributes.
how are we going to pay for it? the average american buys what it can afford. i realize that includes charging on credit cards, but you still pay your bill or you wouldn't have a charge card. why is the govt not held accountable? how are we going to pay for it? let's start by DECREASING the programs we have. let's start by enforcing standards on welfare, which no one should be on their entire life and then get an income tax check worth thousands at the beginning of the year when they haven't done even an hour of work for the year. we need to STRICTLY enforce rules and make better ones. i have to take a piss test to get a job, and randoms to keep the job, yet hundreds if not thousands are on the welfare payroll/food stamps/etc. bet if they follow florida's example we could save MILLIONS of dollars each year. and let's cut other programs too. we have to come together and get the crap straight. we need to start by demanding congress gets no more raises while telling the members of the military they no longer get hot meals for breakfast while they are stationed in war zones. this is crap and we THE PEOPLE need to demand better. whether you are a republican, democrat, or any other party we are the people and if we come together and demand our govt get their butts in line where WE want them to be our country will start to get back to where we want it to be.
I think Mr. Obama has made it very clear he could care less about cost; I think the 8 TRILLION he's added so far speaks to that loud and clear. He's is the worst President in the history of this Country and will probably lead to our demise unless he is stopped now. Congress needs to do their job and stop this maniac.
Compared to George Bush President Obama is a fiscal conservative.
True story
Johnny, President Bush was not much of a conservative, but Obama has taken spending to a whole new level! in his first 4 years he has added as much to the deficit as Bush did in 8 years and his Healthcare has just started kicking in!!! Hold on to your seats the next 4 years will be a bumpy ride taking us to over 20 trillion!
To a Keynesian it's not a problem, it's a plus. If they are good programs that will help to stimulate the economy then I'm all for it.
Hey moron, IF you say they work? Show us one that has worked, Welfare is a complete failure, Illegal’s and lazy people get everything they can at my expense, unemployment is a joke three or more years on it, more taxes on everyone to pay for other countries, obomacare that only a few are going to be able to afford, less hours of work because companies can’t afford health care, the list goes on and on and on. Americans being killed in other countries because we can’t afford to protect them. My God are you that stupid.
Yeah, too bad Keynesian economics have been proven over and over to be an unworkable, counterproductive pipe dream.
That pipe dream ended the Great Depression. You know, the depression that we could of avoided if Coolidge had listened to Keynes instead of tightening his belt. It's also helped Germany avoid the current global economic crisis. And as for Cheri Halstead, when you lack facts throwing in name calling is a wonderful rational thing to do. "moron" and "stupid" have no place in a rational discussion (and call into question your ability to have one). Unemployment is hardly a joke, in fact I see a success story that came from it every day when I look in the mirror. I was out of work for 2 1/2 years. If it wasn't for the safety net that Unemployment insurance gave me I would not be the successful person I am today. A small percentage of those using the social safety net programs run by the government are cheating. Do we need to do a better job cracking down on them? Absolutely. Should we throw the baby out with the bathwater? absolutely not! Those programs the majority of those on it to pull themselves up by their bootstraps, and they help put money in the hands of those who will actually spend it rather then bank it. The economy needs to be goosed not strangled.
No, WWII ended the Great Depression. FDR was just lucky that he got bailed out in time so he wouldn't get his ass handed to him in the election--smart guy.
WWII did help end the Great Depression. It fueled government spending which helped drive us out of the Depression.
I don"t know what y'all are talking about....The Rich got what they deserved ..They got taxed. My Leader told me now the Economy would be all better. The Rich were the problems of the Economy....it should be all fixed now ...right?
Yes moron it was just one little tweek and all would be swell.
Stupid is as stupid does.
If you fell for that line you should be in Rehab. He must be hanging an entitlement check over your head as you bob and weave. You must be part of the Left Wing Conspiracy that is destroying this once great Country
It's getting there. It takes some time, but the indicators have all been positive. A larger stimulus might help goose it a bit quicker, but it's still working.
Hey little Johnny, I have never worked for a poor person. Go back to your lib professor and ask him. You little fagget, you shouldn't be calling people morons.
Do you really think another failed Stimulus will work. There are still most Obama supporters to reward so go for it. They still have their hands out
Hey Johhnny is your dumb ass engaging me again. All you do is make stupid comments and run away you punk.,. Everybody on this board knows you do not have once of intelligence nor have ever spewed one fact.
Oh ...I see you gave yourself a vote again....did everybody notice Johnny gave himself a vote. Did you ever notice nobody votes for your post you moron!...
tg76.....(excuse my outburst on Little Johnny).. The Last piece of Economic news we got ...Unemployment went up and the Economy Receded.
That said there are some indicators that look to be in better shape than before...But just like all Economies eventually they do come around ....Just under this Leadership...It has been the worst ever ..That is a fact.
Another pacl of Political lies tonight heading our way. The takers will be their to applaud him and the Givers will be out working trying to support their families. If he would just take the Bus off the people that he threw underit like the Middle Class and let the economy grow
You make no sense. Thanks for your contribution.
If you belive in Obama you are not expected to understand the truth. Get Rehab now if that is covered under Obamacare
Fact of the matter is he hasnt even made his address yet and you are already criticizing it so you have zero credibility as your agenda is already set. So it becomes very clear that Republicans will hate and oppose any and everything this President does no matter what it is even if it is something they previously supported.
That is why the country and the world are moving on without you.
Hey Johnny dumb ass...His content of his address has been in the news for the past few days Moron! Cant you read?
Hey Johnny...you forgot to give yourself a vote.........
Please, please, please keep sending billions of dollars to Egypt. Please do not ever stop sending those billions to Egypt. We don't need that money here in America. No sir, send it all to Egypt. And, please do not forget about Pakistan either. Keep sending those billions to countries that hate our guts and burn our flag.
You do understand that those foreign aid bills were and have been established way before President Obama took office correct?
Wow Johnny...that sure was enlightening.....Do you think maybe that the Government and Political environment has changed in Egypt? Mr Harley...Little Johnny just tried to teach you something...What a joke!
obama could pay for it himself if he used all the money he pays lawyers to keep a tight lid on his past... don't forget if u look at a map of the states that voted for Romney, landwise , 70-80 % of the country voted for Romney. The HEARTLAND of the usa
You're talking about land area not people, but we should get rid of the electoral voting system because it makes absolutely (meaning 100% stupidity) no sense why anyone should get 100% of the votes as long as they have 1 one more vote than the other person. That just means you threw away half of the public's vote.
You mean the uninformed slack jawed Fox news believers?
no thanks
There are a lot of us out here who don't suck in what we hear on Fox news OR the far left networks (everyone else) without thinking it through. A couple of things are clear, though: You can't spend your way out of debt, and you can't reverse a deficit by soaking the rich when the bloated entitlement structure requires a hundred times (or more) as much money to support as the combined total incomes of all the top 1%. It sounds good and it gets votes from the unducated masses, but the math just doesn't work.
"He" will pay for it by adding more taxes, but not calling them taxes. He should just raise the debt ceiling to $100 trillion dollars. That should be enough for him and his all-encompassing government before he leaves office and write another book about just how great he is.
Ooooooh, so now its time to ask. Lets get all these morons elected then ask how are we gonna pay for it. Where are you today "fiestyredhead". Don't say we didn't tell you so. Looks like your big plan is falling apart.
As I read these post this morning to see how others in the country feel about America's financial situation, I tend to get a sense of fear while reading. I am suppose to be going to the doctor today, but because of my concern for America I have to read these post before I can get going each day. To hear people repeat talking points of the same policies that are causing our pain is very disturbing.
People we need to start researching these issues, and become better informed; then and only then can we vote out politicians that don't have the best interest of the people at heart. There are people that have been in congress 20-30 years advocating the same ridiculous beliefs, yet the people keep voting them in because of name recognition, we have to educate ourselves so we can stop self inflicting wounds to ourselves.
You do not seem to understand that 53% of the nation now believe it is their "civil right" to have whatever you own. They don't want things to be different or changed. They don't want to use common sense or educate themselves or WORK. They want the other 47% to do so and pay taxes. Bleeding heart idiots that followed how they "feel" about what is right or wrong, good or bad destroyed this nation by not making people be accountable and responsible for their own selves and needs.
When there are enough voters and voter fraud to elect an entitlement program President we are doomed, he is no better that the last few Presidents, the difference is the people who get the aid because they cant find work, or wont work will keep these type of borrow and spend stooges in office. So all of you fools who are going to ride your lay around all day let someone else take care of me your freedom is coming to an end. I for one believe China is buying these Treasuries and the collateral is the U.S. Government owned land, plus other assets. Why else buy from a junk status debtor nation.
Its all planned by the Elite for our eventual down fall, Oh and guess which countries don't have a central bank Iran, North Korea and generally any country with natural resources to steal. Stop fractional reserve banking, let the governments print the money and all of this B.S. could disappear.
So make merry and enjoy the slide, you and I have been had by the money changers it's as simple as that. Read the Monster from Jekyll Island for starters it will open your eyes about money and how it works in a modern society.
America is waking up with an election hangover ....whoa....what the hell did YOU do?
obama the fraud...watch his lyin' lips tonite!
HE won't pay for it - 53% of hard working Americans will.
"The kids don't vote, let them pay for it!" Kick the can, once again and again and again......
The fiscal hawks have been saying what Obama was doing would destroy our nations economy, bring on inflation, and destroy the dollar, not many listened. You were called a racist for simple facts and truth being stated. I hated Bush and his policies for the most part, hated the wars, the Patriot Act but most of all his $500 billion in debt he had in his last year. You cannot imagine how I hate Obama's policies of out of control spending, but that is what government bred politicians do to get elected. It is in fact illegal to "buy" votes but politicians do it all the time, both parties. Democrats though are about 10 times worse, and Obama about 100 times worse. We cannot fix this now, in my estimation, we are doomed financially though it will just get worse for the next 10 years until someone gets the courage to slow this financial disaster. All we can do is make it not as bad, but it is coming now.
Obama has not passed a budget again for, I believe, the fourth straight year now because he does not want to pass a budget. Obama has never had any kind of "job", he has always collected money from the government for everything he has ever done, other than writing books that were worthless reads and only sold because Soros and other anti-capitalism typse promoted Obama.
History is going to show and prove that Obama is NOT for the USA, does not love the USA, and thinks it needed to be denigrated and reduced as a nation, and world power.
i know how to save lots of money send all the illegals and there kids back for one thing they broke the law and they are unfit to be here i would be in jail but they want togive them everything for putting B.O. into office
It's a fricken spending problem! From 2005 to 2013 spending is up $1.3 TRILLION DOLLARS! Or a 53% increase. Revenues are down 4% from 2007 to 2012. We don't need to spend more we need to help businesses grow and hire. Ask Main Strret what it needs and then do it. http://www.taxpolicycenter.org/taxfacts/displayafact.cfm?Docid=200 Every one of us had to budget 2% less income since the 1st of the year. The federal Government should do the same. Cut the federal budget by 2% for 2013 and freeze it for 4 years. I have to believe they can cut 2% of cost/waste/graft a year for 4 years. After that, spend can not be above 20% of GDP. Current budget is balanced in 2017 and any reciepts above 20% of GDP go to long term debt.
Hey moron, IF you say they work? Show us one that has worked, Welfare is a complete failure, Illegal’s and lazy people get everything they can at my expense, unemployment is a joke three or more years on it, more taxes on everyone to pay for other countries, obomacare that only a few are going to be able to afford, less hours of work because companies can’t afford health care, the list goes on and on and on. Americans being killed in other countries because we can’t afford to protect them. My God are you that stupid.
I think I have finally just came to accept that the future is inevitably screwed. I am just tired of fighting to show people that we are headed down the exact same predictable path as other societies before us.
Eventually, no one will be buying government bonds because it will be obviously they won't be repaid. Then the government will be forced to crank the printing presses into an even higher gear. Everything, including food, will largely become too expensive to buy.
Same old story. I no longer care. It will mostly be the "young" fools that are voting for this scenario that are going to suffer the most. Those people who actually have a work ethic and the ability to live within their means will come through it.
So enjoy life now while you can, for when the "bill" for all this comes due, it is going to be a pretty miserable world to live in.
The danger to America is not Barack Obama, but a citizenry capable of entrusting a man like him with the Presidency. It will be far easier to limit and undo the follies of an Obama presidency than to restore the necessary common sense and good judgment to a depraved electorate willing to have such a man for their president. The problem is much deeper and far more serious than Mr. Obama, who is a mere symptom of what ails America . Blaming the prince of the fools should not blind anyone to the vast confederacy of fools that made him their prince. The Republic can survive a Barack Obama, who is, after all, 'merely a fool'. It is far less likely to survive a multitude of fools, such as those who made him their President.
Gringo, that is by far the best post I have read, it says it all.
Let's look at the Specifics.
1. Obama Blows