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Subscribe to RSSNEW YORK — Trading in U.S. stocks was quiet on Tuesday but betting on the U.S. presidential race reached fever pitch, with most online gambling sites giving President Barack Obama favorable odds to win.
With the first polls set to close at 7 p.m. ET in a handful of states, gamblers were still frantically placing final bets on the outcome of the election between Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney.
At InTrade, a website that allows users to play events like the election for a monthly fee, 3.8 million "shares" traded in Obama and about 3.1 million Romney shares traded on Tuesday.
In late October, each candidate typically saw between 50,000 and 60,000 shares of daily volume, according to Carl Wolfenden, exchange operations manager at InTrade, which is based in Dublin, Ireland.
The site operates like a futures exchange, with users betting on the odds of an event occurring. Currently, shares in Obama are going for $6.89, indicating he has a 68.9 percent chance of being reelected. If Obama wins, each contract will close out at $10, netting investors a profit of $3.11 a share. If he loses, contracts will close at $0.
On PaddyPower.com, another online betting site based in Dublin, the odds heavily favor the president. Romney is a four-to-one underdog to win, where Obama is a one-to-six favorite, meaning a $6 bet on Obama would pay out $1.
Obama's edge on the site mirrors the expectations of many polling strategists who see the president with a small lead in national polls and an edge in key swing states like Ohio and Virginia. The final Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll showed the incumbent up two points nationally against Romney, at 48 percent to 46 percent.
The level of trading on the site Tuesday counters a prominent criticism of such online markets, which is that limited use allows for the contracts to be pushed around, rendering them inaccurate reflections of the odds of an event occurring.
On October 23, a rash of bets favoring Romney caused the odds for the former governor of Massachusetts to spike suddenly and then evaporate. Wolfenden estimated that there were a mere 40 Romney buyers that morning and only five sellers.
That kind of limited play continued in some of InTrade's smaller contracts. Romney is expected to win the state of Alabama in a landslide, but the mere nine contracts traded over the state suggests he only has a 60 percent chance of winning. That puts the state in InTrade's "leaning Republican" column.
To compare, a competitive state like Ohio is seeing a great deal more interest, with almost 26,000 shares traded in Obama and another 19,000 in Romney.
For those inclined to skip the heated trading in this race, Paddypower already has odds on the winner of the 2016 Presidential election, with Romney currently standing with 9-to-2 odds and Secretary of State Hilary Clinton at 8-to-1 odds.
Those who prefer to bet on long-shots could consider a play on Donald Trump, who carries 100-to-1 odds on occupying the White House in four years.
More election coverage from NBCNews.com:
- Obama, Romney campaigns play the waiting game
- What to watch for when the results roll in
- GOP faces difficult climb to Senate control
- Republicans in driver's seat to protect House majority
- In 11 governor races, it's about jobs and taxes
- Voting in areas hit by Sandy is 'first step toward recovery'
- GOP leaders draw line on taxes ahead of results
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Fired up... Ready to go... F O R W A R D > > > > > > > > >
So far he voting results match the projected polls.
When people take the wonderful right they have to vote and demean it by betting on it? SAD! I look back at all of the men and women who have given their LIVES to allow us to have an election day and how many countries have asked the United States to assist them to become a democratic nation, it makes me so sad that people think this is a horserace. It's not. Elections are about our right to have a vote and we get one and we should be thankful for it!
While I know this is just an "election night puff piece," knowing that people are betting on the election, well, they damn well better vote as well. They have the right to vote and the right to bet.
I love my country, I admire my President and know he is doing the best for all of us, and I am so looking forward to the next 4 years where the President doesn't have to campaign and can govern.
Be aware Congress and Senate! You're actually going to have to earn your pay like the rest of us!
Obama/Biden 2012
Scott Brown will lose to Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts.
Murphy just won against Mchamon in CT.
Joe Donnelly (D) wll win senate in IN.
That's because most online gamblers are idiots and are soon parted with their money. They then wind up on food stamps and vote for clowns like Obama and Biden.
Romney has bet against America - outsourcing jobs, for example!
so Americans have Bet against Mitt
HaHa, losers.
Damn the house is going to remain controlled by the repuks. Four more years of gridlock. No reason to think they will be able to work together. That is the definition of insanity doing the same thing over and over expected a differnt outcome. Oh well you can lead a horse to water but you cant make him drink it.
We are painting the map BLUE tonight !! It's over for Romnut and crew :)
America has spoken
High Rolla I think its imperative that the right work well with Obama as mid terms will be following.
Murdok is gone they are calling that race sweet Jesus thank you!!
Breaking news -
Obama is the Projected Winner of the Presidential race.
4 more years.
i covered my bet by betting on the end of americas way of life.either way i win.
I believe that most wagers are on Obama. Any gambler will tell you that the MASSES ARE THE ASSES!
Gamblers love statistics, and half of all the people in this country are at or below average intelligence.
Which is why everything kinda sucks.
Obama has promised all those who bet on him that if they lose he will bail them out with federal money.
These gamblers are smart enough to bet on a WINNER!
Well the ones who bet on Romney anyway.
Oh no, mafia rigged elections?
Hey Bazzhole,
The masses are "The People"
The People are "The Government"
What country are you from?
No one else has that in their constitution.
You want to be like China?
No Unions? No minimum wage?
I like the "United" in my States of America
"I like the "United" in my States of America"
Most Americans do, that is why the great divider is being thrown out of office along with many of his Democrat yes-men.
I signed up yesterday for an account on InTrade intending to buy shares of BO, but unfortunately found out that it was too late to get $$$ deposited in time due to the fact that they're based in Ireland and it requires a money wire to their bank rather than a simple CC transaction. Bummer; could have made a fortune when O & Joe win tonight!
Anything to avoid getting a job, right?
You should have went to bovada they took nets all dAY.
Chris Christie's NJ may be the deciding state in this election.
It may turn out that Hurricane Sandy was the October surprise after all.
Anybody who would vote on any election, even for local Dogcatcher, is a complete fool.
To quote whoever said it, 'A fool and his money are soon parted'.
I wonder what Samuel Clemens, aka Mark Twain, would have to say. I'll make a strong bet on a strong string of explectives.
If Obama wins, I will probably sh!t myself..... just a little. :-O
Sheldon Adelson bet millions of dollars on a mule in a horse race.
Sheldon just proved my favorite adage....
Those who are RICH assume they got that way because they are smarter than the rest of us.....
Bernie Maddoff & Willard Romney are just 2 scumbags who have proven that theory ALL WRONG ONCE AGAIN !
Sheldon is a Village Idiot just like Liar Romney... I always new gamblers were smart. Thanks guys and gals for voting for the big O.
Well teapublicans - at 11:00 pm --- it's not looking good for Mitt. If Preaident Obama wins Florida --- he doesn't need Ohio.
All America needs is the Florida Brigade to push through and victory is America's.
Come on Florida push through their blockade.
If Florida doesn't come through and is stopped we will need Ohio and any of the other states to push through into the Reds flanks to take their baggage train.
CNN projects: Obama will win California, Washington and Hawaii; Romney will win Idaho and Montana.
It seems that the smaller brigades have reinforced their lines and are going in together.
According to the results Obama has pushed through the reds lines with 274 electoral votes.
270 is all that is needed.
There they go! The Bluecoats are through the Reds lines on all sides.
It wont be long until Romney surrenders his sword....perhaps he will have his subordinate surrender his instead.
"Lets go have some of Martha's famous Orange Cake and Mince Meat Pie."
whinny.
"Oh I was just joking about sending you to the glue factory."