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Subscribe to RSSUpdated at 7:45pm ET The destruction brought by Monday’s hurricane is forcing election officials in New York City to look for new places for voters to cast their ballots next Tuesday.
New York City Board of Elections commissioner J.C. Polanco said in an interview Wednesday night that the ten commissioners are working with Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Mayor Michael Bloomberg to find suitable substitute sites to voting places that have been inundated by sewer water, have no electrical power, or are too damaged to use on Election Day.
He said one option officials are weighing is to combine polling locations, while another is “having tents near the polling sites where the voters have normally voted, with state-funded generators, where our machines will be able to be placed, and our workers will be able to serve the voters.”
The ten-member bipartisan Board of Elections faces a massive logistical task since there are four million voters in New York City; in the 2008 election, 2.6 million cast ballots.
“Thankfully we’ve been able to secure the many scanners (for optical scan voting machines) in low-lying areas. For example in the county of Staten Island, Richmond, we were able to bring all those scanners to an armory,” he said.
New York is planning to put up tents that will act as polling places, but in the end the NBC's Chuck Todd says the burden of finding a place to vote remains with the voter.
An additional layer of complexity in New York City next Tuesday: the use of optical scan machines which for people who only vote in presidential elections will be a new experience, “the first time in over half a century” that voters will be facing new voting technology, Polanco said.
In neighboring Connecticut, Secretary of State Denise Merrill said Wednesday that despite the after-effects of hurricane Sandy she’s optimistic that normal voting will be taking place on Election Day.
After conferring with about 240 local election officials in her state on a conference call Wednesday morning, Merrill said in a phone interview, “We are prepared to go forward with the election. There are probably about 100 polling places at this point that are without power, but it looks like most of them could be moved if needed, but we’re hoping a lot of them will come back on line (before Election Day). Even in the towns most devastated, which were along the shore, places like Greenwich, Old Saybrook, Stonington – those were the towns that were hardest hit – most of the town halls are up and running. Even though there’s widespread damage to homes, the official polling places are probably going to be fine and we’re making alternate arrangement for a lot of the processes that we have to do before Election Day.”
She said the local officials seemed hopeful that polling locations “will be up and running by Election Day. CL&P (Connecticut Light & Power) is lot better on this then they were in the past. We’re in constant communication and they’re making these polling places a priority (for restoring electricity). And most of them are fire stations and schools and town halls which are going to the first priority anyway.”
She said Connecticut does have provisions in state law for local election officials to consolidate or move a polling place “but it’s a very last resort. Fortunately or unfortunately, we have had practice: last year we had the storm (Hurricane Irene) on exactly the same day and there were towns that had to move polling places because they were so devastated by downed trees and power lines that they did move polling places.”
Pool / Reuters
An aerial view of the storm damage over the Atlantic Coast is seen in the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in Seaside Heights, New Jersey October 31, 2012.
Merrill said one challenge if polling locations are moved is to inform voters in the towns or cities affected. “It has to be handled very carefully. They did it through reverse 911 calls to people which have been used already by local officials to notify people about downed power lines and that sort of thing. You have to post notices — it’s a very extensive process.”
Merrill noted that due to the hurricane, the state has extended the voting registration deadline by two extra days (until Thursday at 8 p.m.) and “we still have registrations pouring in so there’s still a lot of election activity going on.”
Mitt Romney resumes a full campaign schedule Wednesday in Florida after taking a break Tuesday to encourage storm donations to the Red Cross. Meanwhile, President Obama will spend another day focused on Sandy recovery efforts. NBC's Chuck Todd reports.
Connecticut does not have early voting or no-excuse absentee balloting.
Elsewhere in storm-affected states:
- New Jersey officials were still assessing polling site conditions. Jason Varano, assistant supervisor of the Ocean County Board of Elections, said workers were still in the process of checking on conditions at poll locations in the hard-hit county. He emphasized that New Jersey does allow for voting by mail and that although it’s too late for voters to request that a ballot be mailed to them they can go in person to the Ocean County Administration building in Toms River, N.J. and request a ballot. In Cape May County, Michael Kennedy, the registrar at the board of elections said officials surveyed polling locations Wednesday and found only one municipality, Ocean City, to be affected: two polling centers there cannot be used. One is under water and the other has water damage and no electricity. The county will combine those districts with others and inform residents about the changes in polling locations.
- In New Hampshire where thousands lost electric power due to the storm, a spokesman for Secretary of State Bill Gardner said reporting from emergency services agencies indicated that power would be on line in time for Election Day.
- In West Virginia, as early voting continued, the storm’s impact was felt in a tragic way: the name of one state legislative candidate, Republican John Rose, will remain on the ballot after he was killed during the snowstorm Tuesday by a falling tree limb. Rose’s death necessitated a special write-in candidate filing period with candidates needing to file by 5 p.m. on Thursday. If voter choose Rose the governor will select a legislator from a list of three candidates submitted by the Republican Party executive committee in Rose’s home county.
NBC News’s Natalie Cucchiara contributed to this report.
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No matter what your political leanings, I am so very proud to be an American. I am proud of our people and their fortitude in any situation. What we do together and how we move forward through extreme conditions is always awe inspiring to me. This is further proof that we are the greatest nation in the world.
Updated as of 5:00pm EST on Wednesday, October 31 (Happy Halloween!):
Real Clear Politics (RCP) is consistently cited by both FOXNEWS and NBCNEWS as a current source for reliable averaged polling data at every level of American politics.
RCP continues to consider the following eleven states, listed in descending order of electoral votes, as "toss-up": Florida (FL), Pennsylvania (PA), Ohio (OH), Michigan (MI), North Carolina (NC),Virginia (VA), Colorado (CO), Wisconsin (WI), Iowa IO), Nevada (NV) and New Hampshire (NH).
With only 127 hours left in the 2012 presidential campaign, Obama leads in seven of the toss-ups, Romney leads in three, and in CO the candidates remain locked in a tie.
In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 5:00pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:
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In PA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 4.6%, down slightly from yesterday's 4.7%.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 95.4% chance of winning PA, up from yesterday's 4.2%.
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In MI, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 3.0%, down from yesterday's 4.0%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 97.9% chance of winning MI, down slightly from yesterday's 98.1%.
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In NV, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.4%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 82.8% chance of winning NV, up significantly from yesterday's 79.7%.
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In OH, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.4%, up from yesterday's 2.1%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.6% chance of winning OH, up significantly from yesterday's 73.3%.
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In WI, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.3%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 88.1% chance of winning WI, up significantly from yesterday's 85.7%.
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In NH, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 2.0%.
However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 75.4% chance of winning NH, up significantly from yesterday's 70.3%.
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In IO, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 2.3%.
However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 74.4% chance of winning IO, up from yesterday's 73.9%.
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In CO, with 9 electoral votes, the race remains tied.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 60.7% chance of winning CO, up significantly from yesterday's 5.4%.
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In VA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 0.5%, up from yesterday's tie.
However, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 61.8% chance of winning VA, up significantly from yesterday's 57.8%.
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In FL, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 1.3%.
FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 59.3% chance of winning FL, down significantly from yesterday's 64.7%.
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In NC, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 3.3%, up from yesterday's 3.0%.
FiveThirtyEight gives Romney an 82.0% chance of winning NC, up from yesterday's 81.4%.
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All in all, while Romney's position in toss-up state polling has improved more than Obama's over the past 48 hours, his chances of winning in the majority of these states has declined. This is a function of Romney losing his race against the clock in PA, MI, NH, and IO in that the rate at which he is tugging at Obama's lead in these toss-ups is not fast enough to swing the state decidedly into his column by election day itself.
At the same time, in the state where Romney needs desperately to win, OH, Obama's lead has been widening over the past two days; conversely, in the state where Romney needs desperately to hold on to his lead, FL, that lead has been eroding over the same period.
So...
In order for Obama to win re-election, the least complex route appears to be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest, PA, MI, NV, OH, and WI. Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold either IO or NH.
However, should Obama fail to hold OH, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently predicting Obama victories:
Path #1: Obama loses OH but wins IO, NH, and CO resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #2: Obama loses OH but wins NH and steals resulting in 270 electoral votes.
Path #3: Obama loses OH but wins IO and steals VA IO resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #4: Obama loses OH but wins CO and steals VA resulting in 275 electoral votes.
With Romney's lead having diminished significantly in FL over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between Obama and Romney regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the country, a 5th path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:
Path #5: Obama loses OH, IO, NH, and WI while failing to capture CO and steal VA but comes from behind to steal FL resulting in 272 electoral votes.
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For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, FL, NC, and VA bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal a victory in CO where his lead fell from 0.4% on Friday to that of dead heat and in OH where Obama's lead this morning rose to 2.4%. By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275.
Should Romney take CO but fail to steal OH, he could overcome this shortfall by capturing WI and either IO or NH, resulting respectively in an electoral vote total of 273 or 271.
In either scenario, however, Romney must hold FL at all costs.
FiveThirtyEight, at present, estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 77.4% - Romney 22.6%. FiveThirtyEight also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 299 - Romney 239. Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.4% - Romney 48.5%.
With only 127 hours of campaigning left, this one is going to come down to the wire….and quite possibly, in a few of the closest toss-up states, to the October jobs report which because of Hurricane Sandy may be delayed from a scheduled Friday release to the following Monday, one day before the election.
Let's hope that Election Day is free of both voter fraud and voter intimidation and that eligible voters who have registered in good faith over the past six months are in fact able to vote on November 6; let's also hope that vote tabulation itself is performed honestly and accurately by both the election commissions and private corporations to whom this essential role is being entrusted.
In any case, it will be interesting to watch as election night unfolds.
Reality of Sandy's path of destruction sets in with all the hardship, Romney is still coming out with all his lying and hate ads, at the end of the day I'm hoping Romney is the loser !!!!!!!!!!!!
"MSNBCMFE" . . . your posts are too long for most of us to read :-)
. . . and suggest you check out Nate Silver's blog:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
Most. Accurate. Polling. Data. EVER. :-)
O & Joe, 2012, Myth Robme, 1040's! (we know he lied on his Mass taxes; for sure he lied on his Fed taxes, too!)
KJNC,
I include FiveThirtyEight throughout my post, along with Real Clear Politics.
In any case, this vine is not an 8th Grade homework assignmnent, aka 'required reading,' so if my post or any other post appears too long for you to read, simply pass it by.
What my post DOES DO is compare today to yesterday, something RCP and 538 do NOT do. In short, my post shows the most recent TREND, a 24-HOUR TREND, in fact....and in an election as close as this, trends are EVERYTHING.
In any event, I appreciate your opinion, KJ, and the smiley face.
MSNBCCMFE - Yes your posts are too long. After all we don't need a PhD dissertation on the 'Vine. There's a simple way of putting it, KISS. Keep it simple stupid. Otherwise go over to Politico, Fox or any other site.
jackie,
Nah, I think I'll stay here. Just scroll down if it bothers you.
"when it is a legitimate storm you see that mother nature has a way of shutting all that down." "gods will" or could it truly be climate change? mystic beliefs, or scientific fact. what do you want to believe and who do you want on our side? i'am pro life for this world before it is too late.
@msnbcmfe;
I believe it bothers most everybody.
I believe there is enough time to get things together for a regular turnout.
Doesn't bother me! I find it helpful. I don't have to go and look it up myself! It is easily accessible. As msnbcmfe has stated, if it is too long, scroll on down.
Thank you, AG.
MSNBCMFE - I have to agree. The statistics are so long. Condensing them would be nice, please?
Beakeeper,
Scroll down to #13. Format changed and length shortened....somewhat.
Bigtime changes in just the last few hours.
Absolutely amazing.
Could you imagine what we could do if the government was willing to work together? I doubt a new President will make any difference, why? Because in order to have full support of the people you need to be truthful and honest! Something lacking in Romney! Those of you that think our President failed this in Libya I have one question. Do you think it would have been wise to announce we are being attacked by terrorist with so many wanting to take advantage and start more attacks causing more confusion? Sorry one more question, How many of you think terrorist might enjoy hearing we are being attacked? Remember before you answer how terrorist around the world celebrated the attack on 9/11 in New York City. We have been for the last 4 years been trying to keep the victories of terrorist quiet so as not to give them more motivation and I think it's working. The more they fail the less they try. Just because the President doesn't tell the world what he knows doesn't mean he doesn't know what is going on, put yourself in his shoes. He's trying to keep us safe and is doing a really good job of it so far.
For those without shelter, they might not be able to vote. They aren't living next door to their destroyed home, but they could be miles away living with relatives. Some may be injured. Some may be able to vote who can afford to travel, but that is not a fair vote for all voters. If they have already cast an early vote, they will be able to vote. In Virginia, they can only vote on election day, so any affected areas will be very hard pressed to find fair solutions.
It will be an election, and as an American, I am proud to see people voting, but I wish something more fair could be set up than a tent near a destroyed neighborhood.
Yawn... Screaming will get you nowhere. Ignored much more than a too long post.
Totally agree, AlaskaGirl! Americans stand together in emergencies - neighbor helping neighbor!
It just shos that the question is not "big gov v. small gov" - what counts in "effective gov, with all elements working cooperatively!
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I am sooo proud of this president & his ability to handle the tough situations he has had to face in the last 3+ years! God Bless him & his family!
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O & Joe - 4 more!!! :-)
Are you also sooo proud that this president refuses to be answerable to the American people on Fast & Furious and 4 dead Americans in Benghazi Libyia?
On 11/6/2012, America will order Barack Obama to STAND DOWN!
When Barack Obama calls on America on 11/6/2012, he will get DENIED!
Me, too! I can't imagine any other president being able to handle everything that president Obama has had on his plate over the last almost 4 years. He truly deserves to keep doing what he is doing in moving this country forward. We may be going a bit slow for some, but I think going slower assures us that we are not going to wind up back in deeper doo doo than we were. But, every sector you look at shows signs of improvement, moving in a positive direction.
4 more4 44!!
Our president has done an amazing job. I just don't understand the hatred and lack of respect for our president. He's done a great job coordinating services for those suffering from the storm and he's done a good job overall as president. Everyone is entitled to their opinion, but they don't have to be so hate filled and disrespectful. That's exactly what happens in congress. A total lack of respect and decency. No professionalism. I give President Obama and Governor Christie complete respect for doing their jobs. This is not about politics, it's about Americans in crisis.So much for the repub theory that Obama can't work with republicans. It just proves that he is more than willing to work with them if they would be willing to work with him. It certainly beats Romney's rally yesterday disguised as an "event" to help storm victims. I think it's great that he wants to help those who have been hurt by the storm, but he really shouldn't do it as part of his campaign. I think that's very self serving and disrespectful to those who are suffering.
Thanks MSNBCMFE for the polling update. It saves me the trouble of looking it up. For those that think it's too long, then just don't read it. However, if you want to be informed, then it's worth the time to read it. Don't know how accurate these polls are, but it seems like it will be a horse race for sure.
Battling a paranoid schizophrenic is not an easy task. We should do the "socialist" thing, and try to get these people some help. Otherwise, send them to Afghanistan where they can prove themselves as "warriors"... and die.
Guess it all depends on your stance. Are you a douche-bag, or are you an American with the best interest in the USA prevailing?
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Morf Ramanie/Ayn Ryan 1812!!
Gateway Pundit: WOMEN’S GROUP Slams Obama For Abandoning SEALs in Benghazi
The group is calling on Obama to come clean with the American people on Benghazi.
"When President Obama called the Navy SEALs, they got Bin Laden.
When the Navy SEALs called Obama, They got denied."
On 11/6/2012, America will order Barack Obama to STAND DOWN!
When Barack Obama calls on America on 11/6/2012, he will get DENIED!
Dude, you DO know that there were no Navy Seals in Benghazi. There were hired private contractor mercenaries who were at one time (But no longer) Navy Seals. Knock it off withthe RWNJ talking points implying The President "abandoned" our diplomats and men & women in uniform.
***OPTIMISM*** FOR SURE! :-)
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Nate Silver's blog at the NYT doesn't "cherry-pick" polls - he aggregates ALL (ie, 100%) of the polls . . . his goal is ACCURACY . . . he doesn't care who wins, he just wants to call it correctly, so he is non-partisan.
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Last night he upped the odds of President Obama winning, dramatically:
President Obama now has a 77.4% chance of getting 299 Electoral College votes
His chances of willing OH: 77.6%
His chances of willing WISC: 88.1
His chances of willing VA: 62%
His chances of willing NH: 75.4
His chances of winning Mass: 100%
His chances of winning PA: 95.4
His chances of willing NEV: 83%
His chances of willing Colo: 61%
He will probably lose NC & FL, but it doesn't matter.
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His chances of winning the popular vote: 75%
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So all of the Rethuglican attempts to BUY the Vote, to do voter intimidation & suppression, to shut down early voting, to lie . . . . have COST Myth Robme & Lyin' Ryan any chance of winning this election.
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A Vote for O & Joe is a vote AGAINST Citizen's United & the idea that voters can be BOUGHT & SOLD!
NYT is "non-partisan"? Was that a joke or are you just that ignorant?
How are the republicans trying to BUY the vote exactly? Be detailed in your answer.
On 11/6/2012, America will order Barack Obama to STAND DOWN!
When Barack Obama calls on America on 11/6/2012, he will get DENIED!
"SonOfA. . . "
I don't owe you anything, least of all answers to your rants. You are a paid troll, and fixated on this Benghazi thing, like too many other low-information voters. Most posters here have you on "ignore."
You are not interested in the truth - you think you can get traction, and use this tragic Libya situation to score cheap political points . . . even though the family of Ambassador Chris Stevens has asked you & others to stop. You. Don't. CARE. And no one is listening to your rants.
You will not change minds.
You will not change votes.
And for sure, you will not change HEARTS.
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Do you have a passport?
Have you ever been to the Middle East?
I have; and it's complicated, and you lack the smarts to understand it.
Condi Rice (among others) says that President Obama has done a good job in Libya, and has urged patience because it takes a long time to collect itell. That's good enough for me.
Gen. Colin Powell endorsed Obama - that's also good enough for me.
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And finally, it doesn't matter whether the NYT newspaper itself is "partisan" or not. Nate Silver was an independent blogger - and an accurate one - for many years before the NYT invited him to publish under their banner. They chose him because he is ACCURAYTE.
Progressives (like me) didn't enjoy it when he called the mid-terms correctly, but mostly for the tea-baggers. If you paid attention to reality, and tried to educate yourself a little, you would know that.
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I know it's hard, but either try to keep up, or stop ranting.
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O & JOE - 4 more!
Awesome post, KJ!
Thanks, AlaskaGirl - I enjoy your posts, & like how often we are on the same page! :-)
Won't it be great in a week, when this is over & we don't have to look at or listen to the liars anymore?!?!?
O & Joe!
Thanks, KJNC! Oh, if only that were true. When president Obama is re-elected come next week, something tells me that the nut jobs, after they are done crying in their soup, will be even sicker and even more twisted in their comments. I predict an overwhelming majority of them will be spouting off that the polls were rigged, yada yada yada. They are very sore losers, but Victory will be ours and America's!
Obama/Biden 2012 OH YES WE WILL!
Here's a great one:
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"Romney Says He Favors Abortion . . . . . in Cases Where It Makes People Vote for Him"
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http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/borowitzreport/2012/10/romney-says-he-favors-abortion-in-cases-where-it-makes-people-vote-for-him.html#ixzz2AuJ0l2BE
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O & JOE - 4 more!!
Election brings 4-year-old to tears, captures sentiment of entire nation [VIDEO]
Coverage of this presidential election has brought poor little Abigael Evans, 4, to tears.
Her mother uploaded a video of her little girl sobbing “after one too many mentions of the election.” Abigael is distraught because she is “tired of Bronco Bama and Mitt Romney.”
For the next six days, we are all Abigael. Don’t worry: This will all be over soon.
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/31/election-brings-4-year-old-to-tears-captures-sentiment-of-entire-nation-video/
On 11/6/2012, America will order Bronco Bama to STAND DOWN!
When Bronco Bama calls on America on 11/6/2012, he will get DENIED!
msnbcmfe-get off this post-you are a fuc@@@@ idiot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
can't wait to hear you republicans whine and have a nervous breakdown when obama wins!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Happy Halloween everyone, beware the trick or treat 'Zomney', coming to your door.
If you wear a Romney mask, any candy you get has to be sent to China.
Happy Hauntings...
Swing, if you vote Zomney, that's a vote that my candy will be made in China. Just like that broom you ride. Spooky. You betcha, wink wink.
God willing the voters will triumph over all the dirty tactics republicans are deploying to keep people from voting. We will continue moving forward with President Obama and more Democrats fighting for the American people. No one should want to return to the policies that brought American down to crisis. That is what we will have with Romney and more republicans against our country's goodwill. We need everyone to get out and vote for President Obama and every Democrat on the ballet to get the country on the right track.
Even the best case scenario will still leave the republican party with veto power through the filibuster, Vil. The good that Obama will be able to accomplish will likely be limited to whatever he can accomplish through executive order, unless, of course, if they decide to start working with Obama like they did with Clinton during his second term. I don't think we can count on that though with the power that the extremists wield in this new, ultra-toxic republican party.
Worked with Clinton? They tried to impeach him. It was hard to believe, considering all the hanky-panky they were doing themselves.
Lol, point taken Elizabeth. Ok, relative to the all-out obstruction including voting down their own ideas like they do with Obama, the republicans "worked" with Clinton.
'Phony letters warning Florida voters they're not allowed to vote'. The TGOP can't figure if it's April 1st or Halloween. Beware the 'Zomney's'.
Classified cable warned consulate couldn't withstand 'coordinated attack' REQUEST WAS MADE A MONTH BEFORE THE ATTACK IN LYBIA TO THE STATE DEPT FOR MORE SECURITY....NONE WAS GIVEN.
stayin', thanks in part to Lyin' Ryan.
This one's for KJNC, jackieboy, and Coral Taxi...
Updated as of 8:30pm EST on Wednesday, October 31 (Happy Halloween!):
With less than 124 hours left in the 2012 presidential campaign, Real Clear Politics has Obama leading in eight of their eleven toss-up states with Romney leading in three.
In descending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Obama, followed in ascending order of 'percentage of lead' in favor of Romney, here are the published averaged numbers from RCP as of 8:30pm EST together with the most recent FiveThirtyEight election night probabilities of victory for either candidate:
In PENNSYLVANIA, with 20 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 4.6%, down slightly from yesterday's 4.7%. Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 95.4% chance of winning here, up from yesterday's 94.2%.
In WISCONSIN, with 10 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 4.0%, up substantially from yesterday's 2.3%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 88.1% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 85.7%.
In MICHIGAN, with 16 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 3.0%, down from yesterday's 4.0%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 97.9% chance of winning here, down slightly from yesterday's 98.1%.
In NEVADA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead is holding at 2.4%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama an 82.8% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 79.7%.
In OHIO, with 18 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 2.3%, up slightly from yesterday's 2.1%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 77.6% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 73.3%.
In IOWA, with 6 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.3%, down from yesterday's 2.3%. However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 74.4% chance of winning here, up from yesterday's 73.9%.
In NEW HAMPSHIRE, with 4 electoral votes, Obama's lead has fallen to 1.0%, down from yesterday's 2.0%. However, FiveThirtyEight gives Obama a 75.4% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 70.3%.
In COLORADO, with 9 electoral votes, Obama's lead has risen to 0.5%, up from yesterday's tie. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 60.7% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 5.4%.
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In VIRGINIA, with 13 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 0.5%, up from yesterday's tie. Interestingly, FiveThirtyEight currently gives Obama a 61.8% chance of winning here, up significantly from yesterday's 57.8%.
In FLORIDA, with 29 electoral votes, Romney's lead has fallen to 1.2%, down from yesterday's 1.3%. FiveThirtyEight currently gives Romney a 59.3% chance of winning here, down significantly from yesterday's 64.7%.
In NORTH CAROLINA, with 15 electoral votes, Romney's lead has risen to 3.8%, up from yesterday's 3.0%. FiveThirtyEight gives Romney an 82.0% chance of winning here, up from yesterday's 81.4%.
All in all, while Romney's position in six of the eleven toss-ups has improved over the past 48 hours, his chances of winning in four of these six (Pennsylvania, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Virginia) has actually declined. This curious development is a function of Romney losing his race against the clock where his gains are simply not occurring quickly enough to make a difference.
In any case, in order for Obama to win re-election the least complex route appears to be through maintaining his current lead in the five toss-up states where his existing margins are widest (Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Wisconsin at 4.0%, Michigan at 3.0%, Nevada at 2.4%, and Ohio at 2.3%). Doing so would bring his electoral vote total on Election Day to 271. In this scenario, Obama could still surpass 270 while failing to hold Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.
However, should Obama fail to hold Ohio, the loss could effectively be neutralized by any of the following combination of wins from states where FiveThirtyEight is currently predicting Obama victories:
Path #1: Obama loses Ohio but wins Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado resulting in 272 electoral votes.
Path #2: Obama loses Ohio but steals Virginia while also taking New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado resulting in 270, 272, or 275 electoral votes, respectively.
Interestingly, with Romney's lead having diminished significantly in Florida over the past two weeks and with Hurricane Sandy forcefully highlighting the stark contrast between the candidates regarding the value and necessity if not the mere existence of FEMA in a state which has perhaps the greatest dependence on federal storm relief efforts in the country, a 3rd path has now emerged which could provide for some interesting election night television:
Path #3: Obama comes from behind to win Florida. This scenario would require only that Obama win the three states in which his present leads are widest (Pennsylvania at 4.6%, Wisconsin at 4.0%, and Michigan at 3.0%), resulting in 276 electoral votes.
For Romney to unseat Obama, he not only would have to hold the three states in which he presently leads, Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia bringing his electoral vote total to 248, but also steal a victory in Colorado where Obama's lead today rose to 0.5% and in Ohio where Obama's lead today settled at 2.3%. By so doing, Romney's electoral vote total would reach 275.
Should Romney fail to steal Ohio he could overcome this shortfall by capturing the four other states in which Obama's current leads are smallest (Colorado at 0.5%, New Hampshire at 1.0%, Iowa at 1.3%, and Nevada at 2.4%) resulting in an electoral vote total of 273.
In either scenario, however, Romney must hold Florida at all costs.
FiveThirtyEight, at present, estimates the chance of Election Day victory for each candidate as follows: Obama 77.4% - Romney 22.6%. FiveThirtyEight also projects that on Election Day the final electoral tally will be as follows: Obama 299 - Romney 239. Lastly, although it makes no difference in terms of the final result which can only be determined by the Electoral College, FiveThirtyEight currently predicts a national popular vote distribution on Election Day as follows: Obama 50.4% - Romney 48.5%.
With less than 124 hours of campaigning left, this one still appears to be going down to the wire.
Ohio Legitimate Rapists for Romney / Ryan!
It's OK, because it's God's will.................... Thanks Mitt!
Women need to think about this election carefully. Slogans often turn women off though. It should be pointed out that married women have as much to lose under Romney as single women do: Married women with good insurance and husbands that support them will still face old age, and still would face it with only a voucher system instead of Medicare. On average, women live longer than men, so it is women widows who will feel the lack of charity woven into the Republican cant.
Vote Democrat: Our lives depend on it.
For the first time in this election cycle, as of today's averaged polling numbers from Real Clear Politics and FiveThirtyEight, I've come to the conclusion that Obama's re-election is a certainty... barring, of course, Adelson and the Koch Brothers buying the electronic tabulation in just enough swing states to make the difference.
It's been fun, Righties, but you should have gone with Huntsman...and you should have cut loose the Tea Party and all that it has grown to represent.
At least that way, you might have salvaged part of your national reputation in preparation for a fight with Hillary in 2016.
NY City should have no problem, to which the city has the best techie support; otherwise, the Wall Street would not be there. If they have the techie support, like the Street, they will come up the solution, since the CT has solved the voting problem.
And pray that all voters and volunteers are safe and sound. Go Obama 2012.
It all comes down to WHO DO YOU TRUST?
I trust the Bookies over MitRobMe.
I am glad that the election is going forward, and that everybody is pulling together to overcome this storm.
However, I am very concerned that the election in the disaster area might not allow many voters to vote.
People who have lost their homes aren't living next door, but probably miles away with friends and relatives, and they will have a terrible problem with such short notice getting to the polls. Sure there is early voting, but if people haven't already voted, they might not be able to. In Virginia, that means that only those with plenty of money will be able to vote. This worries me, not because of whom might win, but because it creates an unfair burden on many voters.
Please read Black, Christian, Marine Corp. Pastor E.W. Jackson's - Exodus Now - before you vote - the article is on the internet and short. Vote with an attitude that my candidate is losing therefore I must vote to help him win - take an hour off work, eat your lunch in line, but stay in that line and vote.
http://saintpetersblog.com/2012/10/in-early-voting-florida-gop-operative-says-democrats-are-cleaning-our-clock/
President Obama have a vaccination available in all STATES "OBAMA-CARE" to combat "ROMNESIA" disease......
IT IS ESTIMATED BY NOVEMBER 7th 2012.....ALL STATES WILL BE FULLY IMMUNIZED..............
.......................................................OBAMA/BIDEN 2012....................................................
Romney's Campaign trained poll watchers to mislead voters at the polls:
The Romney campaign held 6 - 8 training sessions across Wisconsin in the past 2 weeks. Poll workers are under orders to say they are "concerned citizens" if questioned.
Link to Romney poll watcher training schedule + Romney volunteer observer documents
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TWO EXAMPLES of misleading information distributed by the Romney Campaign:
CLAIM: Page 8 lists 10 items as "The ONLY acceptable forms of "Proof of Residency".
FACT: The list is incomplete. There are many other documents people can use to prove residency that are not included, such as letters from public schools, student loan papers, correspondence with a Native American tribe in WI, vehicle registration, and food stamp correspondances. In addition, the list fails to mention that homeless voters may use an affidavit froma public or private social service agency as proof of residency.
CLAIM: If a handicapped voter is unable to come to the polls to vote, an assistant can deliver the ballot to the voter if the CEI verifies the elector's proof of residency.
FACT: Under Wisconsin law, the CEI (Chief Election Inspector) does not have to verify proof of residency so long as the voter is registered.
The Romney campaign knows that confusing & inaccurate information on Election Day slows down the voting process, discourages voters who wait in line, and drives down turnout. GOP voter suppression has been HUGE in this election cycle. Citizens have the legal right to vote. Election workers should be forwarding this right, not creating obstacles to voting. Forwarding disinformation is an attempt to eliminate our voices, inhibit progress and maintain the status quo.