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Social media election sentiment for Thursday, Oct. 4. Click the image for the full report.
The immediate consensus that Mitt Romney won Wednesday's presidential debate has eroded significantly as fact-checkers have weighed in and supporters of President Barack Obama have fought back, according to NBCPolitics' computer-assisted analysis of more than 1.3 million post-debate comments on social media.
The analysis suggests that as debate over a news event continues unmediated over time, the impact of the conventional wisdom of journalists and partisan commentators can be mitigated.
Before the debate, Romney partisans — never shy about criticizing what many of them see as the news media's bias against Republicans — had predicted that Obama would be declared the "winner" regardless of how it unfolded:
Twitter.com — 8:55 p.m. ET Oct. 3
But as soon as the debate had finished Wednesday night, commentators and television analysts — including some generally considered sympathetic to Obama — agreed that the president had lost:
MSNBC's Chris Matthews shares his disappointment with President Barack Obama's debate performance.
Twitter.com — 10:55 p.m. ET Oct. 3
As the consensus spread through the news cycle, it was echoed on Twitter and Facebook on Thursday, according to NBCPolitics' analysis, which examined slightly more than 1.3 million postings beginning at 10:30 p.m. ET Wednesday, when the debate concluded, through 11 a.m. ET Friday.
NBCPolitics.com uses a tool called ForSight, a data platform developed by Crimson Hexagon Inc., which many research and business organizations have adopted to gauge public opinion in new media. It isn't the same as traditional surveys, which seek to reflect national opinion; instead, it's a broad, non-predictive snapshot of what's being said by Americans who follow politics and are active on Facebook, Twitter or both at a particular moment in time, and why they're saying it.
More social media analysis from NBCPolitics.com
Explainer: Can you scientifically quantify social media opinion?
Obama took a beating Thursday, reflecting the view that he had been passive and had passed up opportunities to attack Romney:
Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com
Twitter.com — 10:40 p.m. ET Oct. 3
Twitter.com — 10:12 p.m. ET Oct. 3
A visual representation of the discussion in the 90 minutes immediately after the debate, as pundits chewed it over on TV postgame shows, indicates the breadth of consensus. Notice that even when people talked about Obama, one of the primary subtopics was "Romney Won The Debate":
Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com
Now look again. Even as Romney was being hailed as the victor in the minutes immediately afterward, a small question was already being raised about "Facts."
By late Thursday afternoon, those questions had become prominent, as commenters cited analyses by partisan and nonpartisan fact-checkers:
Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com
Particularly influential was a commentary Thursday morning by the liberal blog Think Progress:
Pundits from both sides of the aisle have lauded Mitt Romney's strong debate performance, praising his preparedness and ability to challenge President Obama's policies and accomplishments. But Romney only accomplished this goal by repeatedly misleading viewers. He spoke for 38 minutes of the 90 minute debate and told at least 27 myths.
Arguments like that planted the idea that Romney had "lied his way to victory," an idea that Obama supporters began spreading with enthusiasm:
Facebook.com — 7:24 a.m. Oct. 4
Twitter.com — 12:07 a.m. ET Oct. 4
By Friday morning, the counterargument that Obama had actually won on substance had taken root, with online sentiment now favoring the president:
Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com
A visual representation illustrates the shift:
Crimson Hexagon Inc. and NBCPolitics.com
Facebook.com — 6:20 a.m. Oct. 5
Facebook.com — 7:24 a.m. Oct. 5
The analysis suggests that Twitter and Facebook can be powerful disseminators of opinion once commenters have time to digest the news and marshal their arguments, as was efficiently perceived in this comment:
Twitter.com — 9:48 p.m. ET Oct. 4
Leave a Comment:
Obama wasn't lost, he gave Mitt enough rope to hang himself .....1 debate does not win an election. Romney may have seemed spunky, but his rudeness to the moderator and the president proved he's more clown material then presidental. Do you want a used car salesman for a president or a Nobel Prize winner.....just sayin'
Yeah, I suppose you want the guy that didn't put up a fight to be fighting for you. Was President Obama poorly prepared or trying to be a nice guy?
And why may you need to fight.Being President is not always about fighting either.Fighting well does not mean a good leader all..No,he was letting Mitt hang himself and he did a fine job..smirking under his breath(and me smirking along with him and about 40 million others doing the same)
I love the smell of leftist desperation in the morning...
AnyHO, when all the smoke clears and Nov 6 comes President Obama will win a second term.
O & Joe 2012
Amazing that so many American's cheer a candidate on and call him a winner when they know themselves that he lied through his teeth all of the way through the campaign and the debate. My god, no wonder the rest of the world eyes Americans traveling abroad with great disdain and suspicion. This American will be staying in the U.S.A. I would hate to be mistaken for one of you. Romney supporters have no shame. They should demand that their candidate tell the truth and admit his many lies.
Defintion of the word "lie" in liberal speak : An idea that I disagree with. Therefore it must be a lie. I am a child.
LIE ;
1. A false statement deliberately presented as being true; a falsehood.
2. Something meant to deceive or give a wrong impression.
I couldn't find differing definitions depending on ideology. This proves that your deceptive statement is simply another lie. Would you happen to be a Romney supporter? I can't help but see a pattern here.
Where's the news stories on the lies and half-truths Obama handout out during the debate? This BS news station is so biased its sickening. Isn't the complete absolute lack of any criticism of anything related to Obama or his administration glaringly obvious. They'll give him a pass on anything and if he screws up they'll go to great lengths to try to try to return the public's view to their pearly unspoiled image of him. They don't investigate or even attempt to validate critically anything he or his administration says. Yet with Romney they'll dig in to every little corner and twist stories to paint a picture of the 'evil lying Romney'.
President Obama says there aren't enough loopholes to close to make Mr. Romney's plan work, yet how will President Obama's plan work if he's only raising taxes on the wealthy to Clinton levels?
Well no,because they dont have to.Most of us already know what Obama has done.It has been reported to death on a daily basis what Obama has done for the last four years,where have you been?
I'm one of the coveted undecided indepenents. After watching for a bit, I knew that I should have turned the debate off. As it was, neither Mitt Romney nor Barack Obama swayed me in their favor. Neither one so much as mentioned what I wanted to hear about - the fiscal cliff. And after that dog and pony show, I am actually leaning toward voting for Gary Johnson. Otherwise, I might not vote at all.
Honestly you probably should stay home if you don't think either candidate mentioned the fiscal cliff. Your comprehension and listening skills are obviously broken. The whole debate was about the economy and the deficit.
Yes,and that has everything to do with the 'fiscal cliff'.They both know whats coming,but in a way you are right,they made no mention of what do do if nothing's done by Jan 1st.
That is most likely due to the fact that neither have any idea what the coming lame-duck Congress will do until after the election results. It's impossible to speculate on needed action while in limbo.
Let is wait for all the statements to checked and that is tricky--many answers are
truly "very complicated." But just because one guy is energetic and one subdued
does not determine a "winner." Both had good things to say -- (the moderator was
little like a substitute ref.) Let's instead look over the last 6-12 months and see who's debate
"message" was more consistent with his 2012 themes and stump comments. Let's put
things in context without name calling or throwing zingers. Respect is part of Amendment 1.
Anyone reporting that Obama won that debate is searching anywhere and everywhere to find a couple of idiots that are in denial of what happened Wednesday night. You could be an Obama fan, but at the end of the day, a person should have the brains to notice who the obvious winner was. NBC should be ashamed at how hard they are searching for any analysis, no matter how wrong or fictitious to change the outcome of the debate. What a narrow minded network.
Is there an option for "We all lost"? Given that both candidates were committed only to talking points and "zingers" for the debate, there was little chance of any thoughtful, meaningful discussion of the questions. At this point I'm thinking it would be better if candidates (preferably ALL the candidates appearing on the ballot in most states) were presented with an impromptu essay test. Moderator gives them a question, they write a response (using any resource materials they want), then the essays are presented for fact-checking, discussion, and questions from a panel. OK, so it wouldn't make great TV, but it would certainly be better than what we got this week. And better than we're likely to get in the remainder of this year's debates.
This is such an intelligent post - #39
My assessment is that America doesn't know what a debate is. What they put on every election is a slugfest, and the one who can be loudest and most aggressive is automatically declared the winner. It is too bad that it all has to take place in such adversarial circumstances, and so one gets no real substantive discussion of the issues. I like your idea, sorrykb, only the writing part should take place before the debate.
Another pity is that candidates debate what they would do, as opposed to what needs to be done. Whenever power is the prize things will descend to the superficial, and the motor mouth will be declared the winner.
You know you mention that and I have to agree.I had wished so much that this election cycle that the candidates would have actually tried to intelligently discuss issues and been a bit more pragmatic in their comments,not trying to ridicule each other.We're all over 18 here we are all voters that are going to have to make a decision on the 6th.It seems each year they try to be the political blusterers of old..the Kennedy's the Tip O'neil's the Reagan's,the FDR's..problem with that is that you cannot do that when you keep changing your positions on the issues at hand and thinking no one will notice that,thats the path to a definite loss..
it's easy to 'win' a debate if you come out and only say what people want to hear, even if you've got nothing to back it up. Mittens lied through his teeth for 90 minutes Wednesday night, flip-flopping yet again to score points with the voters
So the facts and figures were not backing anything up? How sad!
Wow Jerry is that what NBC told you?
Jerry - I understand that you wanted to get your talking points of "flip-flopping" and "lying" in there but was Mitt really saying what the pundits at MSNBC & CBS wanted to hear? Is that how they came to the conclusion that Mitt won?
car salesman..the country is not based on car salesmen
Romney said absoutely nothing in the debate. We still don't know what loopholes he will close (mortgage deduction, child deductions are my guess ), he didn't say anything about job creation except the same old less regulation and cutting taxes for the wealthy, he said nothing about how he plans to get passed the Washington gridlock to get things done. A two-faced opportunist at best.
Sheila - Sort of like "hopey-changey: of 2008, huh? No specifics there either and look what we got.
Sheila-846240 - the presumption in your statement is solely for the rich. I have family that work in healthcare and financial services *thank goodness fora job) and the amount of regulations is crazy. I'm sure it is well intended but execution of good intentions is a different story. Second, the regulatory agencies asked to police the companies are usually about 10 years behind the times further complicating stuff. Where do you think bureaucracy comes from? :)
Yea,he'll create 12 million jobs out of thin air,thats the impression I got.As far as the 'hope and change' well yes.I have hope..I hope that he stays in because I still have my job that I had in 2008 and my wife does also,so yes I have hope that things are getting better and from the looks of todays news they are.Things may not look 'hopey changey' but in a sense we're all still here bytching about government so that tells me there is hope for change.
Romey's "performance" only validated his inherent sleeze factor. All I saw was a snake oil salesman.
5 weeks before the election and all of a sudden it's a fast slide back to center and all of a suddent he has a has a PLAN though still famously short on details, of course.
My interest isn't in what Obama has to say. I know where he stands. Romney is the one who has to prove what he has to offer, and quite frankly, he hasn't shown me anything of ANY value other than a wizards promises behind veils of smoke and mirrors.
Yes,the '12 million jobs out of thin air'.There is no value in what he has to say.It's all been said before
I truly hope that Romney does everything right from now until election day. I'd love it if he just dominated Obama in all the debates and then by some magical waive of the wand, got everyone to believe that he hasn't flip flopped on virtually every single issue. I hope that all republicans see his victory on Nov 6th and a near CERTAINTY.
And then I hope Romney gets shallacked on election day.
It would be poetic justice for Bush defeating Kerry after Kerry clobbered him in all things substantitive.
And then just as I swore in 2004 that I was leaving the country to never return - my hope is that all republicans jump on their magic vibrating intravaginal ultrasound machines and buzzs their asses collectively into the Gulf of Mexico in search of a more republicanny 'Merica.
Go $&#K yourselves Republicans.
So you're going to vote based on who yelled the loudest on TV? And forget everything else the candidates have said and done up to this point?
Who can believe anything Mitt says, as he un-says it whenever the wind blows another way. BTW, now, he says the 47% comments were wrong. Before, he said, they just 'weren't elegant.'
So, this is the guy who would be a good commander-in-chief of the most powerful nation in the world?
And of course Mitt wants to de-fund PBS. Republicans are systemically destroying anything they perceive as liberal: PBS, labor unions, Planned Parenthood---it's all part of their corporate-based world view where the old white guys with the money win.
Yes,no compromise.What they do not seem to understand is that compromise is how real politics works,not demagoggery.Compromise takes real work on both sides and Obama has been willing to compromise,but the House does not seem to understand that you cant make up a bill that has bipartisan support,then tack on a strictly partisan amendment to that bill at the last minute and expect it to pass through and get the President's blessing without any conflict.Thats pie in the sky thinking on Congresses part and this half of Congress needs to get run out of DC on its *ss..
Still waiting for the list of "LIES".
Anyone? Bueller? Bueller?
mhrjhn ~
His lies that he won't be giving a 5 trillion dollar tax cut on the backs of the middle class and the poor. No matter how HE tries to spin that, non-biased sources say that the numbers add up in precisely the way Obama said they would in the debate.
He said he cared about the nations poor. That was a lie. He may care religiously but he doesn't care politically, as he himself stated when he thought he was in the room alone with a bunch of rich guys.
He also said he cares about the middle class, and that he'd get tough on China. 2 last lies I'll point out. His history shows he does not care politically, after all he supported SB5 in Ohio, something that would HURT the middle class, and was hated by a LARGE majority of Ohioans (probably part of the reason he's losing his @ss off here in Ohio) and he has made some of his massive fortune by INVESTING in China.
He's lied before, why the heck should I believe he was truthful on Wednesday night? What more would we learn about the REAL mitt romney if we got as many years of tax returns as his father provided when he was in the political spotlight? He lied in Mass when he was running for government and claimed he'd been filing & living there for the time required to run for governor but when he was caught in his lie, he had to re-file (he should have been disqualified) and pay back taxes for the state he wanted to govern.
Do not ask me to trust romney, do not act like Obama can't do anything, because no matter how much ANYBODY wants to down or dog our president, he did what ALL OF THE REPUBLICANS couldn't do. He decided on a plan to get Osama Bin Ladin, and the plan OBAMA decided on not only got us our #1 wanted terrorist at the time, it yielded treasure troves of information since we didn't bomb the hideout to smithereens. Both McCain AND Romney said they wouldn't invade Pakistan to get Osama even if we knew he was there. If it was Mitt the liar, then who knows whether or not he may have been able to accomplish what Obama did but republicans hate mitt so much they preferred McCain to mitt, because in general the republican evangelicals cannot stand mormons.
Obama's policies are making our nation better. Republican policies like the ones mitt champions hurt america, hurt 401Ks, and SAY smaller government yet they want to govern the FL!CK out of my uterus.
So, no I won't trust romney, I won't vote for him and word to the wise it wasn't liberal media that's decided Obama won, it's SOCIAL media. That means it's a large variety of people making up these numbers, of all different political aspects. Plenty of republicans use the internet people, stop saying stupid crap because the republican challenger doesn't deserve to run this country.
I will not be bought off by romney's words, money, or LIES.
"If Romney get's elected, women won't have the right to vote".
Now THAT is a lie.
Things you may disagree with, however are NOT lies. You see the difference? It's like if a 5 year old child is told his behavior is bad and has to go to his room and he say's you LIE mommy. It's not really a lie, it's just the child doesn't want to deal with an opposing viewpoint.
You are acting like this child.
Kehvan: I have actually been saying just what this article says since Wednesday evening.Look at all the comments I have made about the debate.Obama won hands down on substance,Mittens lied and threw Wall Street right under the bus.He also wants to get rid of PBS to lower the deficit-He has totally lost what little mind he has.
Maria, you are truly delusional along with your other lib friends. Obama is an idiot, he has been since he took office and he will continue to be an idiot. FACTS: 5.5 Trillion in deficit spending with another 1.2 Trillion to be added next year alone, unemployment 7.8% and over 8 and 9% for the last 4 years, health care so screwed up even repealing ACA now will have grave consequences for years to come (I work in health care....trust me when I tell you...stay healthy), housing starts down 2.5% last month alone, orders for American goods at an 8 year low. You go ahead and believe whatever your little heart desires, I'll believe the facts.
I think PBS gets $455m in federal funding. It clearly won't fix the deficit by itself, but when you manage a budget and need to make hard decisions you remove what you need to. SS is such a huge brand it can do fine with a corporate partner.
BTW - I love Big Bird and Elmo
OMG, it wasn't even close. Romney was the clear winner and Obama the loser. The real loser however, will be the American people and our Country if Odumbo is re-elected. I can't wait to see dumbass Biden in a debate with Ryan; Biden sounds pathetic enough all by himself, he's going to actually answer questions....it's going to be a joke.
Oh,please Romney didn't win shi$ and this article proves that.Yes,Obama should have gone after him concerning his lies and flip flopping but Romney hung himself when he backed off or changed almost evrything he has stated in the past.And his very late I was wrong thing is just pathetic,again flip flopping as per usual.After ONE month of saying he was right about the 47% he all of a sudden had a change of heart-Are you kidding me ???? A real man would have never said it to begin with.
Hmmm, Maria??? What matters is what the "undecideds" thought and it sounds like they were moved toward Mitt. BTW, did you check RCP for the most recent polls today in the Battleground States?
@Rational Poster agreed. All these polls and even this thread don't matter. It comes down to the undecided. I only ask the voters - regardless of political affiliation - vote on the total picture; not just any one pet peeve issue.
Maria-2595762 - I would also seek out other articles and polls since much of the media skews one way or another. Once you start comparing articles, positions, authors, you will be surprised at the divergence and what people want you to believe. MSNBC skews liberal so if your affiliation is liberal I'm sure you will find your fill here. I like to read both sides and then make up my mind based on the total picture and not on any one position, or even gaffe.
Romney was loud,but he also interuppted the moderator and Obama many times.That did not sit well with me.He came across to me as a desperate salesman and that in itself makes a poor leader.I know where Obama has come from and how he has acted in office and what he has had to deal with.All this has been reported to death by right wing media(Faux)left wing media(NBC,CBS,etc) but most importantly also by foreign media(BBC,Russian televison,French,Japanese,Chinese,etc)and so I have seen their comments also very eloquently on the social media too.They have far more definitive answers than we do because many over there are truly non partisan.They dont care because they are not voting.Most are hoping that Mitt does not get in because again it'll make American people look like total idiots to the rest of the world.Thing is most foreigners feel sorry for us on this go round for the sorry state of the candidates we have to choose from lately.They do approve more of Obama & family though,the Queen does get along well with the Obamas.They were not impressed with Mitts overseas behavior
Ain't no spin in the world can fix debate #1. Mitt took out an industrial size can of corporate whoop A** and gave it to O.
O - what up man? No 47%? No Bain?
Mitt - what up? no "You didn't build that?"
I changing Willard to "Will the Thrill"
Too bad this article proves you wrong !!! He gave nothing but total BS and I have been saying this since Wednesday.The fact that you bought his BS says a lot about you.
Maria-2595762 - by any measure, O was taken to the woodshed - whether you listened on radio or watched. Visually was worse. Both tried to stick to campaign themes so you are not going to find material substance but Will the Thrill took control and acted like a leader. More importantly, Obama did not dispel the notion he cannot think on his feet. He came across unprepared. Do you want someone unprepared discussing nuclear disarmament?
Here's the worst sin of all. Obama said he and Will agree on social security but with only tweaks. Do you think Will is going to go all out on SS change and then say O said he agree me. Chris Matthew was about to have an aneurysm. BTW - that dude Chris is funny....
Maria - See #48.2.
Obama is playing rope-a-dope. He'll move in for the kill in the 3rd debate.
you mean the second date. I expect him to be feisty. The third will be on foreign policy and O is going to have a hard time. His administration's foreign policy is a disaster. Yes Osama is dead, as any President should do. But you have 4 dead American's, a crazy (unknown) middle east policy, something no one understands with China, etc.....
I was astonished when Mitt said he wouldn't cut Medicare-that's not what Ryan has been saying! Mitt tries to appease the toothless teabaggers by saying he will repeal Obama-care then says he likes parts of it. He used to support a womans' right to choose and he's changed his`mind about that,too. I have no idea what the man's position is on anything. The people who hate Obama see him as the changing face of America and they are scared. Old white limp-d!cks are not going to call` the shots here forever, accept it. GOP, the party of "male, pale and stale."
MItt will say the sky is any color you want it to be to win. And he might because of it! Heck, he can claim 40 million new jobs if he wants; its just their is no substance to how he plans to do it. ! fake until after the election. As far vouchers and raising the medicare age. That's not something I want. The boomers can get cut right now if he wants to fix things. Mitt the promiser and chief is an empty suit. Obama won on that same platform a few years back.
The problem with change is that is hard. We all know it in our everyday life - dieting, a new car route, a new job - so when you take something as large as Medi-care and throw in opposing positions you usually get lots of fear, uncertainty and doubt or (FUD) thorwn about. FUD is excellent for clouding the real issue. It is sad that we as a country cannot debate/discuss such a serious issue in a rationale manner. Can you imagine screaming in your house over every topic, every day. Then again (wait) I know some of those houses. scratch that....
Seriously, why do we rely on sound bites and FUD? why can't we get a structured breakdown? facts? Does anyone really know how things work? Yeah, it means doing hard work and talk to people that know that job? having a touch discussion about payments to providers? Bottom line fact: Ask any Provider recruiter for medicare programs whether it is hard or easy to get the doctor to join. If you reduce their pay what do you think the answer will be?
yea I agree,like a real down to eath pragmatic discussion face to face on the issues at hand,put the dayumed attacks aside and start talking,compromising and planning...actually DOING governmental work would be a good start,put it all on a tv talk show...we should call it 'What Will America Do Today?'show instead of the 'Today' show so that all can see..
This article makes sense to me. I was among those who - initially - were disappointed in the President's debate performance. But then I reflected on the last few months & the last few years . . . and especially the 47% comment recorded when Myth didn't know his "honest" (as honest as he ever is) remarks were being recorded.
Now he is saying he was wrong to say what he said about the 47% & he cares about the 100%. I don't believe it. All Myth cares about is the 50.1% - whatever it takes to get elected. He is still (in his head if not actually) the CEO of Bain, and he will do/say anything to "close the sale." that what he knows how to do best.
Conservatives: in case you don't realize it, he is now throwing YOU under the bus. He has never been "severely conservative" - except when he needed to get those votes. Look how many times he has changed his position on abortion.
If I have a choice between (a) a candidate who's done nothing for the last 4+ years but run for office, and who appears to win a debate by rolling over the moderator & telling a bunch of lies, and (b) a guy who has been doing his best to get us out of the ditch that the Repug's drove us into by lying about a bunch of other things, (maybe Romney can locate the still "missing" WMD?) and who maybe looked a little tired on debate night #1, I think I'll choose the one who's been working hard for (nearly) 4 years.
O & Joe - and Big Bird!
VOTE!
Romney "won" the decision by deceit and controlling the pace--He is a product of corporate and Wall St culture and thorough preparation; when you can't convince them with facts you dazzle them with bullshxt-a tried and true maxim of a con-man. It was a masterful performance. He danced, dodged,smiled, charmed, and controlled the pace....and kept a weary Prez off balance all night..He manuipulated Lehrer,and controlled the crowd. He won ! That was the first perception and that was his goal..He'll deal with the lies later--he hopes !
Damn Jay Arr-4214768 - if he can do all that then that's the man I want running the country so we get the foreign policy house in order, terrorist taken care, and everything else. Every other world leder under his control - sweet!
Ahh,too bad for Mitt though...the Internet makes it quite easy to tell between bullshyte and the truth.Past headlines and articles and history takes care of that a lot quicker than it used to.And ICD if you believe thats what's going to happen on Jan 21st if Mitt gets in then I have a bridge I'd like to sell you :)
Older article but have the discussions. review the opposing articles. learn and discover. make up your own mind
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/the-exchange/myths-realities-ryan-medicare-plan-223236463.html
Wow !!!
It seems that the Democrats think 0bama won. The Republicans think Romney won.
Who would have ever thought that would happen ???
Im a Democrat and I think Romney won.Yes,he did as he was supposed to.