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Anonymous / AP
In this 1984 file photo, President Ronald Reagan addresses a session with House Republicans in Washington on Capitol Hill, appealing for support of a three-year $150 billion deficit reduction plan. Next to the podium are Vice President George Bush and Rep. Jack Kemp, R-N.Y., right.
No president running for re-election in rocky economic times can escape the monthly jobs report, and Friday's numbers brought disappointing news -- the jobs picture has slowly improved in recent months, but will it be enough for President Obama to be able to declare "it's morning in America again?"
Even though there are no exact parallels in electoral history, Ronald Reagan in the spring of 1984 was -- and Obama right now is – a first-term president leading a country slowly and painfully creeping its way out of a severe recession.
By some measures the recession of 2007-2009 and its long aftermath are worse than what Reagan had to contend with, partly because the recent recession was accompanied a crisis in global financial markets.
Alan Krueger, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, offers his view on the latest nonfarm payrolls number and the state of U.S. job recovery.
Our view today of Reagan’s re-election triumph in November of 1984 is colored by everything we know now that he and his critics didn’t know in the early summer of 1984.
Despite an unsteady performance in his first debate with his Democratic opponent Walter Mondale, Reagan eventually prevailed in a landslide, winning nearly 60 percent of the popular vote and carrying every state but Mondale’s home state of Minnesota.
By the beginning of 1984, Reagan had endured several politically damaging missteps such as his proposal to cut Social Security early retirement benefits by more than 30 percent and to delay cost-of-living increases for retirees. “Despicable,” growled Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill. “A rotten thing to do.”
The unemployment rate which had peaked in November and December of 1982, fell sharply throughout 1983 and the first few months of 1984 before flattening a bit. By the time voters went to the polls in November, the last pre-election report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.4 percent unemployment -- the highest number a president has ever been re-elected with.
Remarkably, from April of 1983 to April of 1984 the economy was generating an average net increase of more than 360,000 jobs every month. Compare that job growth to the less robust current numbers: from April of 2011 to April 2012, there’s been an average net increase of 159,000 jobs every month.
Although during Obama’s presidency the unemployment rate has never hit the 10.8 percent level it reached in the 1982 recession, it reached 10 percent in October 2009 and has fallen slowly to 8.1 percent—compared to 7.7 percent in April of 1984.
Mitt Romney's advisor Eric Fehrnstrom responds to Friday's jobs report, saying it is extraordinarily weak, and that the Obama campaign should change their slogan from "forward" to "backward."
What’s especially striking when one compares the Reagan era to what’s happening today is the contrast in long-term unemployment. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or longer, peaked in June of 1983 at nearly 2.9 million; the number of long-term unemployed hit 6.7 million early in 2010 and still stands at more than 5 million, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The average number of weeks of unemployment peaked at 21 weeks in mid-1983 while the average weeks of unemployment soared to more than 40 weeks last year and remains at 39 weeks.
And the long-term unemployed are a far higher percentage of jobless people than was the case in Reagan’s first term as president. In the spring of 1984, the long-term unemployed accounted for about one in every five jobless people; but according to Friday’s BLS report, 41.3 percent of the jobless last month were long-term unemployed. (Some of this longer-lasting unemployment is due to the extension of unemployment insurance benefits.)
In the media commentary of the spring of 1984, there was a consensus that the economy had improved enough for Reagan have a good chance of winning a second term – although the economy was far from the only issue that Democrats were trying to use against Reagan.
Mondale was talking on the campaign trail that spring about the CIA’s mining of Nicaraguan harbors and Reagan's “utterly irresponsible” policies in Central America. Soon he warned, “America could be involved in full-scale war in Central America.”
New York Times economics columnist Lenard Silk wrote in mid-April 1984 that “While the economic recovery increases the odds of President Reagan's re-election, relatively high unemployment persists in different parts of the country and could hurt him in some key states.”
Silk suggested that perhaps Democrats would shift the campaign focus to a different economic issue: “Despite the overall rise in the economy and in the average level of real disposable income, the ‘fairness’ issue, or unequal distribution of gains and losses from the Reagan programs, is one that the Democrats may be able to exploit, and to which Mr. Reagan seems extremely sensitive.”
He speculated that, “The 1984 election could be more of a ‘class’ conflict than the 1980 election was, and this could work to Mr. Reagan's disadvantage.”
Even though he’s the incumbent and not the challenger, as Mondale was in 1984, Obama has for months made a “fairness” argument to voters, saying that upper-income people ought to pay higher taxes.
As for the jobs data, Obama’s chief economic advisor Alan Krueger gave CNBC a guarded assessment Friday morning: “Given the problems that the U.S. economy has had over the past decade -- problems that have been building for quite some time – we need faster job growth. We have a very large jobs deficit…. We need more job growth in this country and the president is trying to do the things to hasten job growth.”
He argued that if Congress had passed some of Obama’s proposals such as sending more federal money to cities and local governments to hire and retain public school teachers and firefighters, “then I’d think we’d be having better growth.”
But he said “the economy is continuing to heal and confidence remains strong.”
The Obama campaign has yet to offer its version of the soothing, feel-good ad the Reagan campaign began airing in May of 1984: “It’s morning again in America.”
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As for comparing Obama to other presidents, Obama has a lot in common with Lincoln. Lincoln, too, was hated by racist right wingers.
The blacks seem to hate the whites a lot more than the other way around.
You racist left winger.
Lincoln was a Federalist power freak who destroyed the Constitution. He acknowledged the raping, pillaging and deaths of innocent American civilians to destroy all states rights. Taking away the states right to secede destroyed any semblance of a Free Republic this country had and designed in a Federal dictatorship with no way for the states to keep federal power in check. It removed the most important system of checks and balances the country had.
If the states right to secede was NOT put into the Constitution there would have been ZERO signatures on it. Even Hamilton, who was a British owned Rothschild banking stooge, understood the need for the right to secede.
We are now like a woman with no power to divorce her abusive husband. He has no desire or need to treat her with respect. It will just get worse and worse with nothing to stop the state abuse by the federal government.
The racism crap was then just as it is today........ a "front" to promote a power and financial agenda while making fools of those who go for the "bait" of a racism platform. It divides the people so they are easily conquered and dominated. It is not about black and white but Federalism or a Free Republic.
Mr. Lincoln was a Republican.
DNC owns Hate, Racists and Anger! :) lol
Just because there are many that have their eyes wide open to Obama's policy does not make them racists. He is very much like one past president...Carter. Another one term president due to incompentence and a bad economy.
To bad for you jcc it doesn't say on the plaque on the Statue of Liberty, "Gives us your poor, your huddled masses, and ignorant liberal tired old race card players". Besides you idiot Lincoln was a REPUBLICAN.................
Your slavery reparations payment is overdue! Stop your complaining, you are guilty - pay up! (Isn't this what you are talking about)?
The "minority" in this country being treated like an old dog are the US taxpayers. They are truly the minority and they are being raped with the largest wealth redistribution in history. Minorities are not based on skin color. They are when any group unfairly exploits another group. The taxpayers are now the minority being extorted from by the lower class be whatever skin they are. They simply keep voting themselves more money through unfunded entitlements using the unfair taxation system as their vehicle for federal extortion.
Unfortunately, you can only see or interpret a minority as something with brown or black skin and fail to see the horrible injustice many of those are perpetrating on the middle class taxpayers. When blacks or hispanics are benefitting from racism it is OK in your eyes. It is called extortion by force and vote buying to the rest of us. You do not restore the freedoms of one group by destroying those of another group.
Racism right now is a complete "front" to avoid discussing the deficit, the destruction of our currency, our insane foreign policy, bailing out every lobby in America, social programs that are completely unaffordable, balancing a budget, Banking reforms, lobby reforms, term limits and most of all "EMPIRE BUILDING".
We have so many bigger fish to fry it is insane. This country as we know it is getting a LOT WORSE for black, white and hispanics and it has NOTHING to do with racism.
Mruseurhead, Your nom de plume definitely does not describe you.
The American consumer has been the driving force for the world economy for many years. Republican economic policy wants some other countries consumer to take up this onerous task. These 'poor', misguided countries are ready, waiting and licking their chops. The worlds 0.1% wins no matter what happens.
Republicans can only see the RICH!!!
The RICH get RICHER and the POOR get POORER!!!
Republicans needed to go back to 1982 to find a President Reagan who they can look up to!!!!!!!!!! It sure can't be Nixon!!!!!
Richard Nixon: INFLATION!!! Our money is not worth ANYTHING!!! Nixon then announced temporary wage and price controls, allowed the dollar to float against other currencies, and ended the convertibility of the dollar into gold, which made the dollar’s value POLITICAL DOLLARS!!!!
This is what Reagan did to America and the middle class!!!!!!
Ronald Reagan: Reagan cut the marginal tax rate on the wealthiest of Americans from 70% to 38%. He promised it would spur an orgy of investment and rocket the economy to new levels of production and prosperity. Instead, his supply side economics did the exact opposite. It produced the deepest recession since the Great Depression.
Reagan : Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.4 percent unemployment -- the highest number a president has ever been re-elected with.
Reagan: had endured several politically damaging missteps such as his proposal to cut Social Security early retirement benefits by more than 30 percent and to delay cost-of-living increases for retirees.
Reagan: Although the unemployment rate has never hit the 10.8 percent level it reached in the 1982 recession, it reached 10 percent in October 2009 and has fallen slowly to 8.1 percent—compared to 7.7 percent in April of 1984.
If you want more of the same Vote Republican and become a Slave to the RICH!!!!
The Rich are selling America overseas!!
This blog has turned into left/right political ping pong.
THAT is why we are in the position we are in - nearly 100 years of centralization by those who THINK they know better - left AND right. And all we have had are three MAJOR economic/market collapses, two world wars, a cold war, and several other smaller wars, cradle to the grave "care", massive unemployment, the collapse of the US currency and a national debt to our sworn enemies that has zoomed past Pluto.
As a people we have to agree we have come to the conclusion that after every conceivable mathematical possibility of mixes between these two parties in Congress, the Senate and Presidency we keep getting more of the same. We get corporate profits at the expense of extreme taxpayer debts. If things get really horrible they just steal more and faster because they think they won’t get another chance. They are determined to carry us right into a financial meltdown of epic proportions and destroy our way of life.
From that single point of view we have to work together to move forward through this nightmare of removing these people from office and replacing them with some that will do the miserable job of getting functional within an affordable budget. They also have to remove corporate lobbies from our government because they will destroy anything we build. Corporations are a 100 year old cancer that is devouring our politicians and dictating their focus over the needs of the people.
Look at the decades of wealth for the majority that followed, you ignorant fool!
There is an interesting study of conservatives and liberals done a few years ago. Both were wired to an electroencephalograph. They were asked to perform some simple physical tasks. When the conservative was asked to perform an unfamiliar or confusing task, there was a measured fear response. Whereas, the liberals response to the same task was one of curiosity and problem solving. Explains a lot. Doesn't it?
Uh, I wonder who funded that little tidbit of propaganda? No doubt taxpayer money to another liberal university.
Here's an interesting study from the University of Texas. When liberals dream, the frontal lobes show little activity. The same effect is found in violent criminals.
Here's another interesting study. Most violent crimes are committed from right-wing fanatics. http://fra.europa.eu/fraWebsite/material/pub/RAXEN/4/RV/CS-RV-NR-DE.pdf
Seriously. I will put my conservative mind to test your liberal one any day, any time and any place.
In a paper published online in Current Biology, the team reports two main findings: political conservatives tend to have a larger right amygdala, a region involved in detecting threats and responding to fearful stimuli, whereas liberals tend to have a larger anterior cingulate cortex, an area that becomes active in situations involving conflict or uncertainty.
That is why we have guns.
Unfortunately, when a liberal's (statist's) cingulate cortex is activated, it's Broca's area usually responds with sounds like "Tax the rich." or "I'll take that extra money you obviously don't need."
In other words liberals are dreamers that are unable to see the threats of implementing their dreams and unable to learn from their mistakes. Just take more of someone else's money and throw it away.
"Uh, I wonder who funded that little tidbit of propaganda?"________I should have known, conservatives reject scientific findings that doesn't fit their political ideology.
When I moved from California to Florida some twelve years ago, I purchased a concealable handgun. The reason was to protect myself from right wing rednecks. According to Florida's "Stand your ground" law, I can shoot their ass with impunity when I feel threatened by them.
You mean when you fear them.
now Id bet when you were in california - you were a good 2nd amendment hating liberal - move to a place where they have carry permits - you saw the light - liberals are nothing if not hypocrits
You continue to prove your ignorance.
If Reagan were to enter the presidential primaries today, Republicans would reject him as a liberal and probably a Marxist. They have been rewriting who Reagan really was and what he stood for, turning him into a person he never was by redacting and distorting historic truth. They have done him a grave injustice and used him like an Etch-A-Sketch.
I was alive and well during Regans presidency - he was as great a leader as the history books say. With obama - the revisionists arent even waiting awhile to redact and distort - they call it the nightly news
Just to clear things up; I've owned guns my whole life. I've been an ardent hunter, hunted on three different continents, regular visitor to the range, both shotgun and pistol. As far as I'm concerned, the second amendment refers to a well armed militia. If your part of a militia, and I'm sure some of you are, the second amendment applies to you.
The definition of milita according to 10 USC is (a) The militia of the United States consists of all able-bodied males at least 17 years of age.... so yes I am part of the milita. Today most of us even beleive that women are included even though our government has yet to change thier law.
Get ready American’s
If you can UN-entrench yourself from your ostrich syndrome long enough to position yourselves for the coming inevitable economic boom. Be it more specific interrelated education & or skill-set training relating to the domestic energy industry jobs specifically Oil & natural gas production, transportation, distribution. Secondly electric energy i.e. wind, hydroelectric, nuclear & coal. This is the will of many millions of Americans and it Will Come to fruition Christmas time 2012 will be good, 2013 will be excellent !
Thirty million directly related &100 million indirect support jobs over the next 10 to 15 years in this country alone.
This being a conservative estimate.
Get ready American’s
If you can UN-embed yourself from your ostrich syndrome long enough to position yourselves for the coming inevitable economic boom. Be it more specific interrelated education & or skill-set training relating to the domestic energy industry jobs that Will be available. Specifically Oil & natural gas production, transportation, distribution. Secondly electric energy i.e. wind, hydroelectric, nuclear & coal. This is the will of many millions of Americans and it Will Come to fruition. Christmas time 2012 will be good, 2013 will be excellent ! Resistance is Futile,----> 4ward
Thirty million directly related &100 million indirect support jobs over the next 10 to 15 years in this country alone. This being a conservative estimate...
YEA! WE CAN ALL GO TO WORK TO SAVE OUR COUNTRY.
If You are Happy or not, I'm with Happy!
four more years of Obama! yippeeeeeeee. Im goin on food stamps and neverending unemplyment benifits. Support me welfare state.
Tshanny, Id suggest you use a browser with spell check.
sorry dbl up
Vote no to trillions in debt yes to jobs November.
That would mean a vote for Obama. Romeny would bring more tax cuts, further driving up the nation's debt, along with much more unemployment.
lol Guess a little birdy told you that?
If it was a little birdy telling him at least it would be an improvement over his normal source of information.
All this hooting about the economy and how it will play a role in the vote is nonsense ! The voters will see Romney for the rich out of touch guy he and his wife are and vote for Obama and give him more time to fulfill his vision ! OBAMA?BIDDEN 2012 !
And we ALL know Obama is neither RICH nor OUT OF TOUCH. lol
.... and Obama as a deficit growing, government expanding, global banking bailout loving war monger who is destroying every personal liberty in the Constitution. Yep, sounds like the same vision of Stalin and Hitler. They all created wars one occupation at a time and destroyed personal liberties one Executive Order at a time.
Obama or Obomney....... NO CHOICE and more of the same. Both are owned by the banking, oil and military contractor lobby's strangling our country.
It is a rigged election with ZERO choice. The results will be the same with either of these lobby owned stooges. They are not taking any chances this election.
You have Nancy(former speaker of the house) and V.P. Bidden both are puppets. Nancy says we need to pass Obama Care,then find out whats in it.Bidden say if you vote for Romney you will lose your rights.Both of these people scare me cause if you want to be free of the law ,then join the goverment they work for,their laws they pass do not apply to them just us. Think about and us common horse since if you can.You remember Desert Storm,that is when a snipper had Bin Ladin in his sights ready to cap him.He was told to stand down do not shoot.We had a chnce to get him then. Obama didn't do crap! Thats what I like about the People still in college that vote ,what have you do,besides going to school. Have you been in the real world ,to different countries to see how they really liveand under what rules or laws . I doubt it,look at North Korea,China,Afganhanistan,and other countries that are killing their own people thats a nice life for them. We try to help so they can have a place to live in like us but this country is pulling out. Those countries are poor and can't afford to buy any thing.they also do not have the right to bear arms as we do,what do you think would have happen if we did not have that right when Britain,Japan and Germany tryed to invade us. You can't think back that far. TRY
You will be in for a rude awakening when you pull your head out of the sand on November 7th.
How could obama possibly be like Reagan in November. Reagan actually liked America.
Mr. Obama said todaywhere we used to be is worst than where we are now .....
WOW! Our president is completely out of touch with America!!!
Can he be any further off base?
What he needs to know is we can't take another term of finger pointing and excuses.
We know what we get from Mr. Obama.
We've lived it every day for the past 3 plus years.
Are you better off today than you were 4 years ago?
Yes Reagan asked that question when he ran against Jimmy Carter 1.
Nuf C Nuf !
Barry is illegal, anti American, treasonous, communist LIAR who wants to DICTATE to Americans.
The problem with Obama must be his education. He came in at the exact time the system needed and enforcer to jail the Wall Street criminals and he gave them all amnasty, money, bonuses, and a FED line of credit. The last time this happened the country jailed a thousand bankers, he jailed 0. We started losing four million jobs per year and he increased legal and illegal immigration to take what was left. He has added enough unnecessary regulation to run the remaining industry out of the country, and wait until the requirements of the new healthcare law kicks in. We boomers are taking retirement early because there is no oppurtunity. We're going to break that system. Education is almost out of reach for most young people. He reminds me of a young person that just got credit and is running up the tab because everyone will take their marker. "Next year will be better and I'll pay it off then." No more I say. Forward is the other way.
Can Obama be like Reagan in November?
No.
No but he can and will lose as big as Carter.
For the life of me,I can't give Obama credit for Bin Ladin.Why,(1) when Bill Clinton was Pres.,a sniper had Bin Ladin in his sights ready to cap his head.Orders came down to stand down by our goverment. (2)Obama is the first Pres. that in THREE YEARS,NO BUDGET.How can you control spending that way? If the Pres. Obama thought that what was handed to him from Bush was so bad,why did he give all the money to these people and after the big parties,the bonuses they gave to the CEO's,Pres.Obama did it again(didn't learn his lesson the the frist time),so where does he stand now. If you borrow money from a country like China and don't pay it back on time or default on payment(with the interest on that money rolls faster than the land speed record)who do think will controll this country? Obama doesn't like the Constitution cause it give the people of this great country to much freedom. Janet Reno was appointed by Clinton,she made a statment on T.V.(one time and time only,it wasn't aired again)in order for us (goverment) to have complete controll over the people mof the United States we are going to have DISARM them. TRUE OR FICTION says she didn't say it but TRUE OR FICTIONdid't get started til few years ago. If you like to be controlled by miltary law vote for Obama cause it will happen.
I can give him credit for the call because anyone would have made it. The real question is whay did Clinton not make the call when he had the chance even though I never heard the in the snipers' sights theory.
This past weekend on TV, an American military General was on, and stated, the military has been looking for Asama Bin Laden for 10 years, with orders to bring him in "DEAD or ALIVE". How dare Obama for taking credit for something he had NOTHING to do with. The military is a little upset over there CIC.
Fuzzy-0457
More right-wing diatribe. The military is a nuetral entity created for the defense of our country. They give up their rights to have an opinion on political issues.
But, we appreciate your sharing of the right wing propaganda machine.
"Can Obama be like Reagan in November?"
I don't think so; in order to do that he would have to change party affiliation, become an actor, and straighten his hair.
In 2008 Obama won 44% of the White Vote...
This November, he won't break 25%...
Oh my Lord. I just read this and threw up in my mouth.
In other news, Friedrich August Hayek just rolled over in his grave and John Maynard Keynes rose from the dead to announce that he's taking back Obama's membership card.