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Anonymous / AP
In this 1984 file photo, President Ronald Reagan addresses a session with House Republicans in Washington on Capitol Hill, appealing for support of a three-year $150 billion deficit reduction plan. Next to the podium are Vice President George Bush and Rep. Jack Kemp, R-N.Y., right.
No president running for re-election in rocky economic times can escape the monthly jobs report, and Friday's numbers brought disappointing news -- the jobs picture has slowly improved in recent months, but will it be enough for President Obama to be able to declare "it's morning in America again?"
Even though there are no exact parallels in electoral history, Ronald Reagan in the spring of 1984 was -- and Obama right now is – a first-term president leading a country slowly and painfully creeping its way out of a severe recession.
By some measures the recession of 2007-2009 and its long aftermath are worse than what Reagan had to contend with, partly because the recent recession was accompanied a crisis in global financial markets.
Alan Krueger, Council of Economic Advisers Chairman, offers his view on the latest nonfarm payrolls number and the state of U.S. job recovery.
Our view today of Reagan’s re-election triumph in November of 1984 is colored by everything we know now that he and his critics didn’t know in the early summer of 1984.
Despite an unsteady performance in his first debate with his Democratic opponent Walter Mondale, Reagan eventually prevailed in a landslide, winning nearly 60 percent of the popular vote and carrying every state but Mondale’s home state of Minnesota.
By the beginning of 1984, Reagan had endured several politically damaging missteps such as his proposal to cut Social Security early retirement benefits by more than 30 percent and to delay cost-of-living increases for retirees. “Despicable,” growled Democratic House Speaker Tip O’Neill. “A rotten thing to do.”
The unemployment rate which had peaked in November and December of 1982, fell sharply throughout 1983 and the first few months of 1984 before flattening a bit. By the time voters went to the polls in November, the last pre-election report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed 7.4 percent unemployment -- the highest number a president has ever been re-elected with.
Remarkably, from April of 1983 to April of 1984 the economy was generating an average net increase of more than 360,000 jobs every month. Compare that job growth to the less robust current numbers: from April of 2011 to April 2012, there’s been an average net increase of 159,000 jobs every month.
Although during Obama’s presidency the unemployment rate has never hit the 10.8 percent level it reached in the 1982 recession, it reached 10 percent in October 2009 and has fallen slowly to 8.1 percent—compared to 7.7 percent in April of 1984.
Mitt Romney's advisor Eric Fehrnstrom responds to Friday's jobs report, saying it is extraordinarily weak, and that the Obama campaign should change their slogan from "forward" to "backward."
What’s especially striking when one compares the Reagan era to what’s happening today is the contrast in long-term unemployment. The number of long-term unemployed, those jobless for 27 weeks or longer, peaked in June of 1983 at nearly 2.9 million; the number of long-term unemployed hit 6.7 million early in 2010 and still stands at more than 5 million, according to Friday’s report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The average number of weeks of unemployment peaked at 21 weeks in mid-1983 while the average weeks of unemployment soared to more than 40 weeks last year and remains at 39 weeks.
And the long-term unemployed are a far higher percentage of jobless people than was the case in Reagan’s first term as president. In the spring of 1984, the long-term unemployed accounted for about one in every five jobless people; but according to Friday’s BLS report, 41.3 percent of the jobless last month were long-term unemployed. (Some of this longer-lasting unemployment is due to the extension of unemployment insurance benefits.)
In the media commentary of the spring of 1984, there was a consensus that the economy had improved enough for Reagan have a good chance of winning a second term – although the economy was far from the only issue that Democrats were trying to use against Reagan.
Mondale was talking on the campaign trail that spring about the CIA’s mining of Nicaraguan harbors and Reagan's “utterly irresponsible” policies in Central America. Soon he warned, “America could be involved in full-scale war in Central America.”
New York Times economics columnist Lenard Silk wrote in mid-April 1984 that “While the economic recovery increases the odds of President Reagan's re-election, relatively high unemployment persists in different parts of the country and could hurt him in some key states.”
Silk suggested that perhaps Democrats would shift the campaign focus to a different economic issue: “Despite the overall rise in the economy and in the average level of real disposable income, the ‘fairness’ issue, or unequal distribution of gains and losses from the Reagan programs, is one that the Democrats may be able to exploit, and to which Mr. Reagan seems extremely sensitive.”
He speculated that, “The 1984 election could be more of a ‘class’ conflict than the 1980 election was, and this could work to Mr. Reagan's disadvantage.”
Even though he’s the incumbent and not the challenger, as Mondale was in 1984, Obama has for months made a “fairness” argument to voters, saying that upper-income people ought to pay higher taxes.
As for the jobs data, Obama’s chief economic advisor Alan Krueger gave CNBC a guarded assessment Friday morning: “Given the problems that the U.S. economy has had over the past decade -- problems that have been building for quite some time – we need faster job growth. We have a very large jobs deficit…. We need more job growth in this country and the president is trying to do the things to hasten job growth.”
He argued that if Congress had passed some of Obama’s proposals such as sending more federal money to cities and local governments to hire and retain public school teachers and firefighters, “then I’d think we’d be having better growth.”
But he said “the economy is continuing to heal and confidence remains strong.”
The Obama campaign has yet to offer its version of the soothing, feel-good ad the Reagan campaign began airing in May of 1984: “It’s morning again in America.”
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well dems if your countin on being like reagan give it up, your not even close neither is your party theythe gop) live on half truths deception and even convince there real followers that science and real news is false if it doesnt meet there agenda , reagan lived on smoke and mirrors and false hoods many which have put us where we are today. a cator unqualified, i guess a community organizer unqulified is the only relation watch the unemploymnet figures below 7% he most surely survives in the less than 8% close now he most likely will but even then a good chance the gop takes everything I kind of like the slow approach they are taking not the shock and awe that means we throw our seniors under the bus but must admit the gop is selling this very well many of there supporters are the whites willing to give up there medicare, ssi to support there cause i give them very well deserved credit for this and they are very well saying it will be for those at the top who benefit at there sacrifice if htey win they deserve it and i will follow even though i will never understand how they did it
As I read these posts, I've come to the conclusion many of you don't know squat about recent history and get your information from one or two right wing propaganda networks. Talk about pissing on your leg and telling you it's raining.
JCC, Why don't you enlighten us about history and give us your prediction based on history? please enlighten us on how, according to history, will an incumbant President get re-elected with an umemployment rate above 8%? Enlighten us on why historically Democratic Presidents with the exception of Clinton (who was able to work with both parties and actually got things done) only get one term as Presidents?
your right they dont believe in science, real news or reality itself, they conviently have found a way around it by using the old tricks facist dictators have in the pass call them libs biased and real news doesnt exist, tie real scientist matheticians and engineers to a lib biased oppinion and there warnings and statements are phony only there far right oppinions are gospel and any one who disagrees with them no matter how much there educated no matter how much they speak the truth are ignored and worst yet called unpatriotic communist and socialist they are getting away with it and sad to say not much we can do-just read these blogs and you know im right. Limbaugh rules and the rest of us perish!!
hey but to be able to do this to us i give them credit, truth is the libs or dems do it too and how many of them hold power, they stick up for one thing yet continue the bush tax cuts etc and cave Im too harsh on the gop the dems do it too I appologise to the gop for only blaming them
You right wingers really do believe the magician saws the pretty lady in half. Don't you? You must. You fell for the eight year Reagan magic show.
You continually harangue Obama for deficit spending, but ignore Reagan's record of running up the largest percentage of debt by any president since WWII.
JCC, I think it is safe to say that Obama has far surpassed Reagon's debt record. He holds the record now for the most new deficit spending during his administration, the most of all Presidents in history combined. Too bad we can not say it got us anywhere close to a real recovery. Obama should be proud.
Obama has put us 5.5 TRILLION MORE in debt in 36months. GW spent 4.9 Trillion in debt. in 8 years. Sure you can say whatever you want about why he did it... But he said BEFORE elected he would CUT the 8 trillion debt to 4Trillion. Yup he is a damned lier and SPENT twice as much as he said he would cut.
AGREED. Liberals and Liberal media can't handle the truth. Only lies by the weak sheep.
mcpaddywack
The only way Obama will win the 2012 election is by putting a fix in. And I have no doubt Obama will not lose, but will pull some under handed stunt. One that he has in place right now. He is one that has proven time and time again, CANNOT BE TRUSTED! A repeat of history is among us!
Fuzzy, Yes, I am sure Obama will have something up his sleeve to try to get re-elected, he is very clever about this given his experience with corrupt Chicago politics. I will be more optimistic and believe that whatever stunt Obama comes up with to try to buy votes and brainwash people with something like class warfare to get re-elected, the bottom line, people will vote on how they will be feeling about their situation and the state of the economy come November, and I predict, these feelings will surpass any scheme Obama comes up with to get elected and he will be voted out of office.
Decent Americans are going to really have to turn out to offset the election corruption planned by the Dems. As a former Dem operative, I know what they are capable. They will flood the election commissions the last day with thousands of bogus registrations; not giving the election commissions enough time to verify the legitimacy of said voters. They will request absentee ballots; mail-in ballots, and in states that do not require photo ID, they will march in voters who will swear they are Donald Duck and do it in precinct after precinct. Some of their people will vote up to 10 times on election days. It is all about winning with the slimeballs. The have no morals as to allow anyone but a Dem to win is wrong! That is how they justify this criminal behavior. Having Holder as Attorney General will embolden them any further so in many districts the decent people who care about the future of this Country and their children will have to really turnout to offset this coming corruption.
Three things:
1. When is Obama going to start blaming Bush for inheriting Seal Team Six?
2. Am I suposed to be angry at Romney for what he does with his money or Obama for what he does with my money?
3. Obama had the opertunity to be the greatest president since George Washington but he blew it padding only his friends pockets with CASH.
And a final note... Obama can't even keep Iran in check... You really think he could have WON the cold war? Oh wait he would have won the cold war... For the USSR.
Let's not forget blaming Bush for the interrogation techniques, that Obama wanted to do away with during his first few weeks in office, that lead to the capture of BinLaden in which he proudly takes credit for.
Dee Patriot,
Google the national debt. Remember, I said greatest percentage. Get back to me once you've done that.
JCC, Ok, you want percentages, under Reagan/Bush, around 60%, Under Obama, 90%. You libs are really reaching to find something to try to put Obama in a positive light. Sorry it is just not there. Here are more percentages for you. Under Reagan, in 1983, the economy grew 4.5%, In 2011 under Obama, it grew 1.7%. Obama could replicate about 243,000 jobs over 1 year and still not approach Reagan's total in 1984 for 3.9 million.
"The only way Obama will win the 2012 election is by putting a fix in"_____I really would like to see Mittens win the popular vote, but Obama having the most electoral votes. Watch the right wing go nuts if that happens. Think maybe the right wing of the SCOTUS will throw another election?
Obama should be compared to Jimmy Carter, not Ronald Reagan. To even mention Reagan with Obama is disgusting. Obama hasn't even risen to the level of mediocrity of Jimmy Carter. And he sure as hell hasn't cracked the top five like Reagan did. This economy is being held together with bandaids and duct tape - with the level of deficit spending NEVER seen before in the history of America, this economy is set to explode.
Facts to you right wingers are like light to a cockroach. When faced with facts you run and hide.
JJC@FL, I'd be "running & hiding from this "impressive" list of Obama accomplishment if I were you!
First President to apply for college aid as a foreign student, then deny he was a foreigner.
First President to have a social security number from a state he has never lived in.
First President to preside over a cut to the credit-rating of the United States .
First President to violate the War Powers Act.
First President to be held in contempt of court for illegally obstructing oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico .
First President to defy a Federal Judge’s court order to cease implementing the Health Care Reform Law.
First President to require all Americans to purchase a product from a third party.
First President to spend a trillion dollars on ‘shovel-ready’ jobs when there was no such thing as ‘shovel-ready’ jobs.
First President to abrogate bankruptcy law to turn over control of companies to his union supporters.
First President to by-pass Congress and implement the Dream Act through executive fiat.
First President to order a secret amnesty program that stopped the deportation of illegal immigrants across the U.S. , including those with criminal convictions.
First President to demand a company hand-over $20 billion to one of his political appointees.
First President to terminate America ’s ability to put a man in space-defunded NASA.
First President to have a law signed by an auto-pen without being present.
First President to arbitrarily declare an existing law unconstitutional and refuse to enforce it.
First President to threaten insurance companies if they publicly spoke-out on the reasons for their rate increases.
First President to tell a major manufacturing company (Boeing) in which State they are allowed to locate a factory.
First President to file lawsuits against the states he swore an oath to protect (AZ, WI, OH, IN).
First President to withdraw an existing coal permit that had been properly issued years ago.
First President to fire an inspector general of Ameri-corps for catching one of his friends in a corruption case.
First President to appoint 45 czars to replace elected officials in his office.
First President to golf 73 separate times in his first two and a half years in office, 90 to date & counting.
First President to hide his medical, educational and travel records.
First President to win a Nobel Peace Prize for doing NOTHING to earn it.
First President to not know how to properly pronounce Navy 'corpsman'.
First President to go on multiple global ‘apology tours’-including bowing to foreign rulers.
First President to go on 17 lavish vacations, including date nights and Wednesday evening White House parties for his friends; paid for by the taxpayer.
First President to say that America was not a Christian nation.
First President to have 22 personal servants (taxpayer funded) just for his wife.
First President to keep a dog trainer on retainer for $102,000 a year at taxpayer expense.
Egg Cell Ant Smith!! :)
Boy your talk is cheap. Liberals cannot comprehend, what facts and truth are. They run and cannot discuss anything with logic because they have no logic. They wouldn't understand how to convey it. All they understand is that they are getting their ObamaBucks and other FREE entitlements, that all other Americans are working for them to be able to get. You liberals are LAZY Lost SHEEP and cannot tell the truth if your life depended on it. You people are truly PATHETIC and taking up space on earth!
Thanks for your long list of fiction, ssmithlg.
http://www.truthorfiction.com/rumors/o/obama-report-card.htm
Oh, and Fuzzy-0457 seems confused now on facts or fiction. All he has is the propaganda machine from the extreme right's version of facts.
Thanks to the lack of effort to justify any political propaganda issued, we are spammed with rhetoric that bears little resemblance to the truth.
Q: Can Obama be like Reagan in November?
A: Obama will be like Carter in November!
"To even mention Reagan with Obama is disgusting."______It certainly is. Obama is a much better president and at least 50 IQ points brighter than Reagan. Maybe it's the fact that Reagan fired more people than Obama that appeals to you right wingers. I notice Mittens has the same predilection for firing people.
Do we even know Obama's IQ or did he conveniently hide this information along with his college record and transcripts.
Obama is 3 standard deviations to the right of the norm for black Americans. That would put him around 104:)
JCC@FL,
When you open your eyes do you see Obama's colon or your own?
DEE Patriot,
Did you checkout the debit info yet? Or maybe you just don't want to admit Reagan ran up the greatest percentage (189%) of debt of any president since WWII. By contrast Obama can claim 42%. Reagan sure beat Obama there!
Here's another for you. Which president signed the largest public works bill?
JCC, Wow, you really are reaching! What liberal media source did those numbers come from? Again, my post 287.1. The only percentages that should be important if you really want to contrast these 2 presidents are the ones on economy growth. Under Reagan, 4.5% growth, Obama, 1.7% growth. This is the true indicator of performance under these administrations that you libs choose to ignore. Whatever!
ssmithlg, You'd better tie down your trailer, it's hurricane season.
OBAMA WON A WAR SINGLE HANDEDLY ; and fought off a huge recession , while passing the jobs bill !!!!!!! REAGAN CAN'T TOUCH THIS ; and all you has beens out there , '' let reaganomics of the trickeled down economics rest '' , we're in a time of hope , change and equality for all AMERICANS. NOT JUST THE LAVISH LIVING 1%ers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
WE ARE BETTER OFF !!!!! ; no more crawling around in the desert for BUSH'S WMD lies. we are better off then we were doing the BANKRUPT AMERICA '' BUSH '' YEARS. we are better off , and more happy as a people with hope for equality, in a selfish republican conservative tea party cry baby country. we are better off , because we don't believe in stealing from struggling americans , to give to the lavish living 1%ers !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! GOD BLESS AMERICA , & OUR '' USAMA BIN LADEN '' CAPTURER AND CHIEF !!!!!!!!!
According to the right wingers here, Obama had nothing to do with bin Laden's death. It was all the work Bush had done which enabled the assassination of bin Laden.
JC, Wrong! Where have you heard that Obama has gotten no credit? He deserves credit for making the right call and we all acknowledge it. We all just wish he would give credit more often to the navy seals, the CIA and the policies put in place by the Bush administration instead of politicizing this and making us believe that Obama did it all on his own. Geez, the way the media and Obama talks about it, they would have you believe that Obama saw BinLaden on his radar, flew to Pakistan, and shot him himself. The difference between you liberals and ourselves is that you refuse to believe that Bush's policies contributed to his capture. We acknowledge that it was a coordinated effort from both sides!
"We all just wish he would give credit more often to the navy seals, the CIA and the policies put in place by the Bush administration instead of politicizing this and making us believe that Obama did it all on his own."____You must not have access to main stream media. Obama lavishly praised Seal Team 6, as well as the CIA. Also, I recall Dubya saying he didn't know where bin Laden was, nor did he care.
BTW, which president ran up the greatest percentage of debit?
JCC,Could have fooled me. have you seen Obama's latest political ad giving himself full credit for Binladen? No mention of anyone else's role int his! The person I see with access to main stream media is you! And you say Bush did not care where binladen was? Which liberal media outlet did you get that info from? Give me a break! So ridiculous I don't know why I even respond.
In reference to your second question, did you ever cite any RELIABLE sources where this information came from? We can go around in circles comparing Reagan and Obama, I will stand by the economy growth numbers I already posted which tell the true story on the performance on these Presidents. I will not comment on this any further because we will get nowhere on this subject.
Obama can't be like Reagan. Obama is more conservative than Reagan ever was. But the new Republican party has gone so far right, they have fallen off a cliff. Of course republicans will never believe Obama is the most conservative democratic President we have ever had, they just believe what FOXnews tells them and then there is that little thing about Obamas black skin color.
Desktop, OMG! You really are delusional!! Just when I thought I heard it all! Please enlighten us. What is it about Obama that makes him the most conservative Democratic President we ever had. Please respond. I would love to hear this one!!
Again with the skin color! You guys just don't get it do you!! You want to excuse us using his skin color for all that is wrong with this president because you are in such denial of his failures! Very ignorant remark from you. You liberals are supposed to be known as being the tolerant party, however, all the racist comments I hear on these posts come from you liberals! Quite hypocritical I must say!!
"And you say Bush did not care where binladen was? Which liberal media outlet did you get that info from?"_______That tape has been played several times on different media outlets. Probably not on Faux News, though.
Try this link:
I will not comment on this any further because we will get nowhere on this subject."___________Dee Patriot, maybe this will work for you. If the results don't support your ideology, change the facts. I never said anything about expansion of the economy. I said, GREATEST PERCENTAGE OF INCREASE OF THE NATION'S DEBT.
I see links don't post. Try this on Goggle:Bush says he doesn't know where bin Laden is
JCC, So he did not know where BinLaden is. So what? No one back then knew where he was. What is your point? And you interpret this that Bush does not care where he is??? So ridiculous!
Is Fla lost because JCC lives there? Perhaps he is a convicted felon and cannot vote! What a shame:)
it's generally agreed by many people that "I Can't Remember" Reagan would win the Party of No nomination..Too liberal for the Baggers...