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Despite the focus in recent days on matters of national security, supporters of both President Barack Obama and his Republican challenger, Mitt Romney, tend to agree that November’s contest is likely to hinge on the economy.
At a speech meant to pivot his campaign from the primary season to the general election, Romney said on April 24, “It’s still about the economy, and we’re not stupid.” It was a direct challenge to the president’s record and a move toward making the 2012 election a referendum on Obama’s economic stewardship.
The overall strength of the economy will be illuminated by new jobs data released Friday morning.
While the administration has been able to hang its hat on a series of somewhat positive economic indicators -- the declining unemployment rate, monthly jobs numbers and manufacturing industry recovery -- a potential slowdown in hiring could mean political peril.
But broad statistics don’t tell the whole story. Winning the presidency isn’t decided by national data; it’s decided in the Electoral College, and many of the most hotly contested states make up an occasionally uneven portrait of an economic recovery.
“People will pay attention to their circumstances, and abstract gains are not good enough to outweigh their struggles,” said Douglas Holtz-Eakin, a veteran Republican economic adviser.
Brian Snyder / REUTERS
Mitt Romney waves with his wife Ann after his speech at a primary night rally in Manchester, N.H., on April 24, 2012. "It's still about the economy, and we're not stupid," he told the crowd.
He pointed toward states in the industrial Midwest, where manufacturing growth has been generally slow (though showed signs of improvement this week), and the “sandy states,” such as Nevada and Arizona, where the real estate market is still a long way from recovery.
Many of those states compose the list of the most competitive contests in the NBC News battleground map. That list, which was most recently updated last week, includes Colorado, Florida, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia as pure toss-up states.
But compare the performance of a state like Ohio, where the unemployment rate stands at 7.5 percent (attributable to a number of workers leaving the labor force while employment has held steady), to a state like Virginia.
In Virginia, the labor force has continued to grow along with employment, contributing to a decline in the unemployment rate to 5.6 percent -- the ninth-best rate in the country.
“Just from an incumbent’s perspective, anywhere where you have a high unemployment rate, from a political view, that’s a dangerous thing,” said Jennifer Granholm, the former Democratic governor of Michigan, who now hosts “The War Room” on Current TV.
Genevieve Cook, a former girlfriend of President Obama, tells of her college relationship with him and describes his “sexual warmth.”
Granholm’s home state of Michigan, a Democratic-leaning state in the battleground, ranks 36th in unemployment. Nevada has the worst unemployment rate in the country, North Carolina checks in at 47th and Florida ranks 43rd, according to preliminary data through March on record with the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Both Republicans and Democrats acknowledge that voters’ opinions of the economy tend to cement several months before the election, not on Election Day. That raises the stakes for the next few months’ worth of reports on economic indicators, which might shape impressions of the economy on a state and national level.
A new swing state poll shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney neck-and-neck, noting the economy is "what's keeping Romney in the ballgame." Labor Secretary Hilda Solis, Real Clear Politics Reporter Erin McPike and the Washington Post's E.J. Dionne discuss.
One big report comes Friday, when the government releases data on job creation for April. One private firm’s estimates, ADP’s, projected that job creation slowed to its worst pace in seven months.
Still, Democrats argue, the more important factor at work in the states is whether voters generally believe the economy is improving or declining.
New polling data released Thursday also suggested a gap in swing-state voters’ perceptions of the economy. Seventy percent of Florida voters and 67 percent of Ohio voters said they think the U.S. is in a recession right now, according to a Quinnipiac University poll.
“I think what really matters to people is less the numbers and a government statistic release than the extent to which they feel a sense of improvement in their lives,” said Jared Bernstein, the former top economic adviser to Vice President Joe Biden, who maintains close ties to the Obama administration.
And that could be the silver lining for Obama. In the same Quinnipiac poll, 51 percent of Florida voters said they think the economy is beginning to recover, and 55 percent of Ohio voters said the same.
First Thoughts: Obama unchallenged on Hispanic media
The NBC battleground map puts 231 electoral votes -- of the 270 needed for election -- in Obama’s column as a baseline, varying his pathways to victory. It may end up being the case that voters in just enough states feel things are improving -- even if the recovery lags elsewhere -- that the president is able to win a second term.
But the economy isn’t out of the woods yet, and hurdles to recovery remain.
Roll Call's David Hawkings, Center for American Progress' Neera Tanden and National Journal's Ron Fournier discuss the Obama Campaign's web slide show titled "The Life of Julia."
“Things always happen. One of the problems is that if you’re growing slowly, something might come along, like a natural disaster, and slow you down,” said Holtz-Eakin.
Granholm said she worried about the impact of higher gas prices or a slide in European economies having an especially pronounced effect on a state like Michigan, which has already weathered a tough, extended downturn.
“Michigan could not stand another kick in the gut after the decade we’ve been through,” she said.
But for all of Romney’s efforts to cast himself as the more qualified candidate to engineer a national turnaround, his fight against Obama in each state will more likely hinge on a complex matrix of voter opinions than a simple glance at the economy.
Consider states across the Midwest, where growth has been somewhat slow but Democrats have been eager to highlight Romney’s role in opposing the bailouts that contributed to the partial recovery of the auto industry.
“There’s no question that the president will be touting the benefits of the auto rescue,” said Bernstein. “Speaking as a former member of the autos task force, I think that's fair, because the political winds were very much blowing in the other direction. He took a pretty bold step there. “
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Obama is dangerous. Took $500,000 from the CEO bundler for Pfizer. The American drug cartels have killed 400,000 Americans with their poison pills since 1995. 40,000 in 2011 alone. 25% of native born women are addicted to benzos or other rx drugs. The shootings at pharmacies and the carnage on our roads due to big pharma's highly addictive insidious poisons are growing exponentially. This is an American holocaust in the making and Obama is a bought and paid for stooge of the drug companies and the medical industrial complex in general.
OH crap another conspiracy, this is getting hard to keep them straight. Now its additicted women, next thing you know it will be evil dogs on drugs.
LET'S STICK WITH THE MAIN ISSUE ;
Under Reagan and Bush: $3.4 Trillion increase in the debt.
But wait, there's interest on that debt ... GO HOME YOU TRICKLED DOWN ECONOMIC REPUBLICAN CONSERVATIVE STEAL FROM THE DIRT POOR AND GIVE TO THE FILTHY RICH 1%ers '' H I P O C R I T !!!!!!!!!
Just like a mortgage, the debt earns interest, and so the Reagan-Bush-I debt grew during the Clinton years. The average debt interest rate in those years was about 6.5%, which would increase it over 50% without compounding, but with compound interest the total debt – including interest – increased by $2.2 trillion.
If the Republicans had not run up this $12 Trillion debt, we could easily have pulled out of the Great Recession.
Dump Obama in 2012
wakeHITLER
I hear that there is a free seat on the next space shuttle with his name engraved on a sterling silver plate attached to the head rest. I suppose, then it was meant for Mr. Obama. NASA has no specified port of arrival but might keep him suspended up there in space until we feel he's had enough.
IF he's fortunate and gets on my good side - he MIGHT get food to take on the trip.
yea newt built the hotel
Don't like the truth Tis? Your hero Obama is owned by the drug companies and the FDA is an unfunny joke.
dodeedoidodo
Ditto Heads,Apparently you have very little knowledge of political campaigns. Political winds change almost weekly.It's a long time until Nov...Once people study the Flipper's record the polls will show Obama increasing his poll numbers.So Grasshoppers,sit back and enjoy the ride,the fun is just beginning..
Did you not get the memo on dropping the Mitt Romeny is a flipper? Why? Because Obama is a worse flip flopper and they are stepping away from the strategy.
It's easy to find the President Obama flip flops if you look for them. You wont find them on MSNB Sea of lies.
Hardly,Ditto Head..Happy to see today Michelle B endorsed the Flipper..What a coup...
These right wingers are going positively NUTS at the prospect that after all their efforts to the contrary, they lies, their actively obstructing of the recovery and effective action on the deficit and debt, it looks like Pres. Obama will easily be reelected and bring with him a Democrat Housae and possibly a gop-proof Senate.
And I dont think they have ANY IDEA just how angry this country is at them.
Think about it: The country's financial system and economy was on the verge of collapse. The housing market DID collapse. The country was hemorrhaging jobs, people lost everything in the stock market collapse! With nation in crisis, all the Republicans could think of was screwing new president and the country! They were NOT concerned with helping the economy, or unemployment, or creating jobs, returning the country to some stability!! NO!!! They were most concerned about making Obama a 1 term president even BEFORE the inauguration. All Hail the moneyed and corporate elite!! To HELL with Joe America!!! IS there anyone who will deny that is unpatriotic???
We have no one named "Tom" in New Hampshire.
This person is a fraud.
Joe America didn't go to hell.
Yeah Tom. A democratic house , senate and president....wouldn't that be nice. we'd all be enjoying the benefits of a third world America.
Is there anyone who will deny that Tom in NH is delusional and spouts lies incessantly?
The ONLY chance for America to ever recover will be to send the marxist occupier in the White House back to Chicago. Even then his damage is so immense that a recovery is still unlikely without cutting the budget by 50-60% immediately
romney would sale his MOMMA for a dollar. america? wakeupplease
Please stay in the Phillippines.
Your English errors piss me off!
I do not want to be forced to listen to you over the phone either when I call my cell phone company to file a complaint!
only if you go back to CHINA?
OMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I can't take this arguing back and forth between the Democrat and Republicans!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
It's breaking my heart!!!!
It's killing me!!!!
Blaaaaaaahah-______________________________________.
Flat line.
lostlostlostlostlost. they are the democrats AND the lost. WAKEUPAMERICA.
or the rich.
Every swinging Richard in America knows why the American Economy hasn't recovered yet , the GOP has said NO, Stalled , or Ham-stringed every attempt Obama has made to right it. And the GOP is gonna pay dearly for it this coming November.
Just like they did in '10, eh?
In case you forgot, in two yrs with a Progressive majority in both houses, Barry managed to increase our national debt by $6T, paid all of his special interest groups back with your money (aka the stimulus) and signed into law the biggest piece of soon-to-be unconstitutional law the country has ever seen.
It sounds more like a good thing that we now have some checks and balances in DC, huh?
“It’s still about the economy, and we’re not stupid.”
That is a matter of opinion and the opinion of most Americans are that yes, you are that stupid Romney, you are a vulture capitalist, anything for you, screw everyone else....
You're right. It's the Capitalist vs the Socialist again this November. Thanks for pointing that out!
sale AMERICA out . Vote romney? Or Save America and KEEP Obama!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! WAKEUPAMERICA.
Let's HOPE for a CHANGE in NOV.
--------------
Get it, Hope/Change 2008,,,,,,,,,,,,, get it,,,, Dam I's funny
Isn't it a little funny that the swing states in question have been under Republican or Tea Party control for two years now? Shouldn't their economies be up and running? The Republicans promised jobs, growth, etc, if they were elected in 2010. I guess when you obstruct everything, you can't really make the economy grow, can you? Maybe if they had worked with the President, instead of against him, it would be different! You can't blame it all on him! The Tea Party and Republican Party, share the blame!
Didn't you get the memo? They inherited those messes and it was worse than they could have ever perceived... Sounds funny, huh?
Theresa, just in case you haven't noticed, and you obviously HAVEN'T or even care to, almost every single piece of legislation passed in the House in the past almost year and a half now has been "tabled" by Harry Reid, including actual budgets for our country. The ONLY things that Harry Reid has even allowed votes on that came out of the House were raising our debt ceiling and extending the "payroll tax" cut and unemployment.
And in the meantime the Senate, controlled by DEMOCRATS, hasn't put forth a budget for this government in THREE years now.
Even the 3.4% to 6.8% hike in student loans was a law sponsored by, supported by and passed by DEMOCRATS, with ONLY Republicans voting against in when it was passed. And Obama actually has the guts to attack the Republicans for it.
find another BUSH and piss on it. WAKEUPAMERICA.
terryknight.....I see that learn by phonics education that you received isn't doing you much good.
How about you actually comment with something that makes sense and shows at least a modicum of intelligence?
Cheryl, because then he'd be smart enough to NOT vote for Barry again.
thanks. but no thanks. AMERICADESERVESBETTER.
We'll try not to confuse you with the facts, Terry. It's obvious mind is already made up.
What's more critical is how the media wing of the DNC covers the campaign. They've made it pretty obvious that journalists have been replaced by cheerleaders.
find a bush
"Swing states"???????
How about the entire nation that is NOT in any kind of decent recovery.
And as for "touting" the automakers, I wonder if he's going to "tout" the fact that GM still owes over 26 BILLION dollars to the taxpayers of this nation, while they were giving out $7000 bonuses to the employees from their "record profits".
For you Neo-Libs that just tuned in, this is what Cheryl is talking about:
http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2012/05/01/obama_pushes_false_gm_success_story_99648.html
find another cheney and bush to bring america into oblivion. make hitler look small.
First, one doesn't bring anything into oblivion...Second, if you had a point to make, you've ruined any validity your point may have had by spewing your nonsense over and over.
Hurry and hide your bong, Gramma needs to use her computer.
theres a NUTrunning against a PRESIDENT go figure?
If it is about the economy this is all we need. tic tic tic And it has been getting faster since 2008.
http://www.usdebtclock.org/
And this.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GnDyXrSwJnA
What is-IS.
Insanity-doing the same thing and expecting a different 4 years.
You Retardagains want to talk about spiking the football what about when sploe-head George W. had one of his frat brothers fly him onto that aircraftcarrier off the Coast of California with the "Mission Accomplished" banner behind him,and the little ruuberneck had the bells to wear a fake flightsuit like he was some kind of war hero.You know I thought he served in the Reserves during VietNam.I don't didn't know he faked it by having his Dad talk to his C.O. and turn in "papers"on him so didn't have to report,he mailed in his service.He is as big a coward as Mitt Rumney,hell Mitt Rumney was so big a coward that ran and hid in France.Mitt Rumney had his dad write the Mormon church and get his stationed in a church chalet in France,with a butler,a maid and five servants,while me and my buddies were fighting in that hellhole in S.E.Asia.He is a piece of crap that has no spine.Both of them.
And yet Mitt is still the better candidate. What's that say about Barry?
I'm sorry, did Bush hold a "anniversary" celebration one year after Hussein was hung?
Has ANY President ever held a "anniversary" celebration based on the death of one of our enemies? EVER?
And what was Obama doing when we went to Bosnia? Lebanon? Or the Middle East? He sure wasn't doing a thing for you, was he? Seems that he was "organizing" in Chicago.
And while you and your buddies "were fighting in that hellhole in S.E. Asia, the LAST Democratic President we had was playing games with deferments and NEVER served in this nation's military.
Oh and by the way, why are you repeating the same old stupid LIES about Bush? Are you that spineless yourself that you feel the need to throw out filth that was caught as the outright lies they were almost as soon as they hit the press? If you'd pay attention, you'd find that Bush's unit was NEVER deployed to S.E.Asia, but don't let the facts get in the way of your out and out liberal hatred.
You certainly represent the "open", "accepting", "progressive" party well.
One name and date is all I am going to say. Ron Paul 2012
With the Obama never ending, ever growing debt crises that pushed the debt ceiling to $15.7 trillion there is one candidate who wasn't afraid to speak out about raising the debt ceiling and what a danger it is to our economy and our nation.
Here's what that candidate had to say about raising the debt ceiling.
From Sen. Obama’s Floor Speech, March 20, 2006:
The fact that we are here today to debate raising America’s debt limit is a sign of leadership failure. It is a sign that the U.S. Government can’t pay its own bills. It is a sign that we now depend on ongoing financial assistance from foreign countries to finance our Government’s reckless fiscal policies. … Increasing America’s debt weakens us domestically and internationally. Leadership means that “the buck stops here.” Instead, Washington is shifting the burden of bad choices today onto the backs of our children and grandchildren. America has a debt problem and a failure of leadership. Americans deserve better.
At the time, Senator Obama was urging Congress not to tolerate an increase that would bring the debt ceiling to $9 trillion.
You can bet the house and barn that this elections is about the economy.
Hurt him hell, Beat the Snockers out of him, Get that turkey out of the whitehouse before he does any more damage...
The economy is a big issue. But I believe it is Romney that is going to have to prove proof positive 100% that he has a laid out plan and it would work before he has any chance what so ever to becoming president of this country.
It is an election that only Obama can lose.
The economy is not a point where people woiuld just throw him out of office to put in someone that flip flops as much as Romney does. Someone who just doesn't seem sincere or caring. And someone that want's to turn back the clock and make women stay at home Bare foot and pregnant.
Turning clocks back are fictional. You can never go back. Only forward.
Please provide us with a link to where Romney has insinuated or stated that he wants women to stay home barefoot and pregnant.
Why would an uneven recovery be held against ANY Democrat?
Most analysts are now saying the reasons for our tragic state of affairs in this country - economically and socially - are due entirely to failed right-wing policies and obstructionists in office.
Let's lay the blame where it belongs - the buffoonery. The people who fight against affordable health care, comprehensive education, job creation and clean air.
Again, buffoonery
Health Care, Please tell me how you plan to pay for it and I will listen, although you can't get blood out of a turnip, but I will listen.
Education, explain yourself, I think what you are trying to say is for free, really so far two examples that you want for nothing, how do you plan on paying for it?
Job Creation - Unions and the Public Entity do not create jobs, the private sector does, some economic classes will do you some good.
Clean Air - Really Dude what do you drive? My care is electric, what makes you so almighty?
Wow, you certainly repeat the party line well. Maybe next time you can just copy and past from the DailyKos instead of actually attempting to "think" for yourself.
Oh and by the way, if you would actually pay attention, you'd see that the "affordable health care act" is driving premiums UP. "Comprehensive education" is just a stupid phrase that means pay off the teacher's unions for their support. "Job creation" to someone like you means raise taxes on everyone doing better than you are.
And as for that out and out stupid "clean air" phrase, if you actually KNEW anything, you'd know that the keyboard that you typed on was made with OIL. The roads you drive on are made with OIL. The monitor in front of you was made with OIL. Every piece of plastic in your home was made with OIL.
But I'm sure that there's some kind of "green" stuff out there that will replace oil, right? After all, we've only invested OVER 100 Billion taxpayer dollars researching it. Something will pop up any second now that will replace oil in EVERY product it's used in, including medicine.
There is no recovery with the Obama never ending, ever growing debt crises. You can't build an long term strong economy with debt, but you sure as heck can destroy one with it.
Why has this election awaken the eyes of so many? Is it that for the first time in our lifetime one person has committed so much chaos that the sleeping giant has waken?
Il put it this way if these States are needing work you sure don't want a Republican they will not put a penney on the barganing table and if your jobless and on some kind of assistance you would starve they could careless all they care about is not paying taxes
Lies of the GOP & Tea bagger, Citizens United and all the Alec corps ( WALMART ): that pay off the Politician. Its all about the Wealthy getting richer and the middle class getting poorer.....They don't want to help the poor, I do mean the poor not the lazy good for nothings...Who are the one's that leach off the taxpayer. The Wealthy: they get welfare both for themselves an for the Corps. ...But it seems that the Wealthy get away with it ..They steal billions and the few poor steals a few thousands. So what does the GOP want, is Screw the MIddle Class to get even with the few. As I say its the me me me and F everyone else.... The failures of the Republicans party trying to take away SS & Medicare & Health care for Woman so they can give their wealthy Blackmailers more money...To hell with the Poor and Needy. Let them freeze in the winter and stave the Old and Babies,let them die from bad water, do away with the EPA and thats what you'll have, just like all you Tea baggers want...You make me sick with your Me Me Me altitude. It just a matter of time before the masses raise up against you . Greedy and you all call yourself Christians, Christains. What a laugh: Wake up America!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!WAKE UP
What you talkin bout, Willis?
I'll see your ALEC and raise you a George Soros.
Why did you fold??