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The battle for control of Congress this fall will be more closely fought than many Republicans had predicted in the heady days following their 2010 midterm landslide victories, according to those most closely involved in the campaign.
House Speaker John Boehner’s comments this week that the GOP has a “one-in-three” chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment. “We've got a fight on our hands and our hands need to be prepared,” Boehner told reporters on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, doubling down on his warning.
While the Ohio Republican’s admonition was mostly meant to guard against complacency among donors and lawmakers, it reflects a more grim assessment of the GOP’s chances in the House and Senate.
Richard Drew / AP
House Speaker John Boehner's comments this week that the GOP has a "one-in-three" chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment.
Republicans now privately expect to suffer a handful of losses in the House, expected partly to be a natural outgrowth of the receding Republican wave from 2010. And while the party remains optimistic in its chance to regain the Senate, Washington Republicans believe it wouldn’t be by any commanding margin.
"This is going to be an election that comes down to jobs, the economy and pocketbook issues. This is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies and how it translates down to congressional districts," said Brad Dayspring, a former spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor , R-Va., who now works for the Young Guns Action Fund, the super PAC founded by former aides to Cantor and GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy.
"It’s going to be whether Republicans can be trusted again to govern in a responsible manner," he said.
Forty-six percent of registered voters in April's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said they would prefer a Democratic Congress as the outcome of this fall's elections, versus 44 percent who said they’d prefer a Republican one. That's a closer margin for Republicans than in previous months, but general anti-incumbent fervor is running high, too.
Speaker John Boehner says Republicans have a 1 in 3 chance of losing the house, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer predicts the Democrats will take the 25 seats needed to win back a majority.
“Fairly or unfairly, House Republicans have become the face of Congress, and right now a root canal is more popular than Congress,” said Doug Thornell, a former aide on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Gone is the optimism from Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, the Republican in charge of his party’s campaign efforts in the House, from early 2011, when he predicted an expanded majority in November’s elections.
One Republican veteran of the party’s past campaign efforts pointed to two moments from the intervening 15 months that tarnished the party’s brand: the impasses associated with raising the debt ceiling and extending an expiring payroll tax cut.
"I don’t think that Republicans have had the opportunity to showcase what they are capable of doing; it’s hard to do with only one house in Congress," said the Republican. "But when they did have opportunities, they didn’t necessarily make the most of them."
The GOP entered the 2012 cycle with some built-in advantages. Down-ballot victories in 2010 helped the party shore up some seats through Census-mandated redistricting efforts, and Democrats must defend more seats (23) than Republicans in the Senate.
But Democrats argue that they have made inroads over the past year in recruiting top-flight candidates and defining Republicans, especially in reference to the controversial GOP budget in 2011.
"Nobody would have thought after we lost 63 seats in the House that we would fast-forward 18 months that we would have the candidates we have on 'Red to Blue,'" said one House Democratic campaign operative, referring to the party's initiative to flip Republican seats in November.
Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, pegged the odds of retaking the House even higher. "I think it's 50-50," he told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
To accomplish that feat, Democrats must win a net of 25 seats to retake control of the House. (Republicans caution that, because they expect to win at least a few seats, their opponents must win 35-40 seats to have a real chance of re-taking the House.)
By contrast, Republicans need a net gain of just four seats to win back the Senate.
Republicans are eager to stress the plethora of opportunities that could allow the party to accomplish its goal of winning the upper chamber. But they caution that the early projections last year that saw the GOP as competitive in over a dozen races were irrationally exuberant.
"The expectations were out of whack a year ago, and conversely, people's perspectives were out of whack, too," said one GOP strategist familiar with the party's campaign efforts in the upper chamber.
Republican candidates have struggled to get traction in states like Michigan, and few good GOP candidates have emerged in battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania — despite potentially vulnerable Democrats facing re-election this fall.
"I think that after 2012, people will look back and see there were missed opportunities not only in 2012 but in 2010, as well," said the veteran GOP operative of the party's campaign efforts, alluding to the instances last cycle in which Tea Party-affiliated candidates failed in winning competitive races.
Author and GQ contributor Robert Draper embedded himself in the House for a year, and he joins Morning Joe to offer an in-depth look at the House of the 112 Congress and how the Tea Party freshmen changed the tone of the House.
Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's decision to retire complicated Republicans' efforts to stymie losses, and Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown's re-election campaign is a virtual toss-up.
“We were not handed a friendly map at the beginning of this cycle but we went out and aggressively recruited great candidates in open and Republican-held seats, our incumbents built strong campaigns, and we are now more bullish than ever about keeping the majority,” said Matt Canter, the spokesman for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
At the same time, though, Republicans point out they could still lose a number of contests and still wrest the majority from Democrats if they're able to score victories in places like Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana — states traditionally friendly to Republicans.
For all of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney's talk of shrinking the size of government and repealing the president's health reform law, much of it depends on whether the GOP can retain control of the House and win back the Senate. On the flip side, Republican control of one or both chambers could also grind to a halt President Barack Obama's attempt to restructure taxes in a manner that shifts more burden to the wealthy.
To that end, both parties expect the presidential race to affect these downballot races. The Obama campaign's sophisticated turnout efforts in states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio — to name a few — could help propel Democrats' House and Senate candidates to a margin of victory.
In the same manner, Boehner's admonition this week focused partly on minimizing losses in so-called "orphan" states and districts, where the presidential race isn't being fought tightly. The GOP made gains in three such states — New York, Illinois and California — last cycle, and their ability to keep control of the House might hinge in part on their effectiveness of holding onto some of those seats.
Another major variable involves the full advent of super PACs, the unlimited campaign funds on both sides which can spend millions to pummel candidates whom they oppose. American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent with great effectiveness in 2010, and have already gone on the attack in 2012, most recently announcing a $1.2 million blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates.
“My biggest fear at both the House level and the presidential level is all of these outside groups coming in and spending tons of money,” Thornell said. “There are clearly now more of them, and they’re going to have millions of dollars. That’s going to be a huge challenge.”
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Boehner has been one of the worst Speakers in history. Name his accomplishments other than just say no. He can't even control his own caucus. John Boehner is living proof of The Peter Principle: One rises to the level of their own incompetence. Pray that the Dems re-take The House, so Boehner can return to what he does best...drinking cocktails and chain smoking.
More media propaganda.What will they say when President Romney is in our White house? The liberals are in such denial it's pathetic.
Is Mr Orange Head crying again in that picture????? LMAO! Well maybe this November he will really have something to cry about, can you say MINORITY. Extra T' and Koch for everyone.
Conservative are focused on the Senate where bill after bill was tabled by harried reid. We need but a net 4 to get rid of that guy. A net 4 is within reach and doable. The House will be fine. Romney will have coattails where needed in the midwest. Relax people........Dims are having wet dreams of a turn-around of 2010. Ain't gonna happen:)
daddy, It will happen, The people will vote this November and @8:00 PM that Tuesday night chills will be going down your spine when you see every GOP incumbent voted out of office. They deserve it.
Why would anyone sane vote for the gang whose policies got us into this mess in to first place, promises more of the same, reneges on their agreements, and hasn't been able to do anything but name buildings in the two years that it has been running the House?
We need to vote every GOP Grover stooge out of office this November. On second thought Vote them all out!
The House has been thwarted by Reid in the Senate hence the necessity to remove a net of 4 liberals from the US Senate. Of course, outing the campaigner in chief is also very important for all of us!
When your Representative in Congress does not do the job you voted him/her to do, you vote them out.
Vote every GOP incumbent out this November. Every single one!
So what the article is really saying is that Bonner is afraid that America is waking up......yes we are....slowly...but we are waking up.
This Congress has failed to do anything at all for the American people. They began by making a pact that they would definitely always go against anything and everything President Obama tried to do for the people. The Congress has shown what a low lying lot of laid back so called politicians they all are.
They now have the nerve to say that they could have done better if they had had the time !!! What a bunch of losers !!!
Have you seen this?
New book
“Do not ask what good we do inside the House of Representatives”
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45755884/#47196842
So,
WHO pays for it when Obama "stumps" on Late Night with "shows?"
Seriously, if you've bothered to watch these, they are nothing more than campaigns for Obama. Seriously, are we the American Taxpayers footing the bill?
Obama is on these shows about 1 time per month...Comedy "variety" shows. He sends M. Obama on them too...US Taxdollars at work...
Feel Good Libs...You know...Preezy of the United Steezy...
HOW POSSIBLY could OBAMA have AGREED to allow Fallon to air that.
"preezy of the United steezy? REALLY?
We've sank THAT LOW? REALLY?
I believe that a lot of Congressional districts will be rethinking what they did by sending many of these "tea party" types to congress last time around. They have now seen how dysfunctional they became to the entire process. They made a point but in the end they almost brought our country to a standstill. It effected each and every one of us. It isn't completely about "right or left" is it about making decisions that help move this country forward and many of their tactics that were based on their philosophy was good but so many of them had no experience in their job that they brought this country to brink of a standstill multiple times. The Speaker of the house should have had more power in controlling them but instead, he is weak and was more fearful of losing his job as 3rd in the line for president and the prestige of being Speaker. Boehner is weak and the newbees need to go. And many of these new congressmen and women still don't get it. This current congress is the worst ever and has the lowest approval ever!
Newsflash: Republicans surprised that the constituents they're screwing over might not vote for them.
If you are one of the great minority of Americans who believe the Republicans in Congress have worked to improve economic conditions, reduce debt and resolve long standing problems, reward them by voting for your local tea party representitive in November. If not, you know what to do.
In 2010 the fickle public wanted something to happen in Washington so gifted the nation with a super in flux of Tea Partiers and Republicans. Little did we know that these "new" people would turn out to be the complete opposites of what the nation wanted and needed. This new congress sat down, and never got back up. The only time they did anything was to disagree and say no. Then they would sit back down and make a symbolic vote on something as stupid as the color of cement. These people became the enemy of the working class and all middle class Americans. They made no attempt to coverup their disdain for Americans. Now, the time has arrived for us to say good bye to them. Go home and sit down you obstructionists, Go home and do nothing there. We saw that you were inept and we saw your refusal to work for us. We want you gone really fast. We are going to the polls this November and voting STRAIGHT Democratic tickets from coast to coast. Now take that and put in your pipe and smoke it. Your toast!
We have lost control of our government by buying into political rhetoric such as 'shared responsibility'.
Our allegience should not be with either the Democratic or Republican Partys. They are both part of the same corrupt 'Washington Establishment'. The differences only occur in lip service, while the recurring results are always the same... we. the people, get screwed.
They, and their Elite financial supporters, depend on us to turn a blind eye to their deceptions, outright thefts and fraud, unwarranted costly wars, AND, most importantly, the intentional dismantling of our 'United States Constitution' and 'Bill of Rights'.
The Washington Establishment (Democrats, Republicans, and their supporters) benefits through abuse of their control of our government. We, the people, need to regain that control back. Saner and more logical minds suggest a third political Party...I agree.
Give it some serious thought.
I am at a loss for words when it comes to 'Why?' so many people continue to blindly vote along Party lines when its become an outdated tradition that no longer functions to the benefit of the American people.
Hey you disgruntle middle of the roaders and Republicans that are not rich, are making below 80,000, may loss even more, may be afraid that you or someone you know may loss your SSI, Vets benefits or Medicare under Mitt and Ryan’s budget
Come on over, Welcome there is space for you!
Do you want to see everything the House did since 2010 go here, at the bottom of the pages is more.
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2011/index.asp
http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2012/index.asp
Your all stupid....BOTH parties have exactly what they want.....all of you bickering and fighting amongst each other! Their ultimate agenda- DEVIDE & CONQUER! It's a distraction so they (all) can pass laws and amendments behind our backs!
if they do get control of the three oboma will spend this country into bankruptcy. look what he has done with some resistance.
think about having all 500 of the officals voting his way.
Democrats are not looking at what the majority want. over 75% does not want oboma care. however every Democrat voted for it.
you can not tell me that if 75% of the people don't want it not one demacrats home states didn't want it but yet these asses are voting the way they want.
this government is not with the people and for the people. it is we know best shut-up and take it.
folks you better hope he doesn't stay in office.
It is always interesting to note -- but not interesting to hear -- that politicians always seem to need to control Congress for the good of their own political party, but not for the good of the American people. Straightening out the economy, creating jobs and securing our borders may be discussed, but nobody ever DOES anything about it between passing laws that pad the pockets of government contractors and further the personal agendas of our elected officials. Vote NO for Congress.
I just cannot believe that this has gone on so long without the American People realizing where the money is going. We finally saw a demonstration at G.E. stockholder conference. I look at the economy as a closed system with circulating goods and services, resources, and cash. If you concentrate any one of these items in one area, then it reduces the amount in another. In general a corporate entity that is profitable will only reinvest money if there is a reason to do so. In the past this reason was that if the money wasn't reinvested in its employee's, R&D, or expansion, that it would be shown as profit and became taxable, so a good majority of the profit was reinvested in the company which gave a profitable company steady growth and reduced its tax burden. This, frankly, is no longer the case. The corporate tax loopholes have given birth to a third option, hide it overseas and keep all of it. The companymakes a larger profit without growth, and has no tax burden. You want to see job growth in the U.S. Inform G.E. (and all the rest) that beginning in 2013 all profit made inside the boarders of the U.S. will be taxable at 25%(thats 10% less) unless offset by an expense incurred inside the U.S. Stop them from taking the profit made off U.S. citizens, using U.S. infrastructure, U.S. ports, U.S. legal system, and the protection of the coast guard. Give them one year of Amnesty on returning funds to U.S. banks that were previously undeclared, and then close the U.S. buildings housing all of these fake "headquarters" in the Caymen Islands. That's how the federal government creates "long-term job growth"
sorry; but i think this is azz-backward. corporations arent re-investing because of endless loopholes to avoid taxes; they arent re-investing BECAUSE OF TAXES. there is just no reason to keep working so hard for a constantly reduced profit because of high taxes and deregulation. first of all; very few corporations are of the size they pay NO taxes because of loopholes; the majority are smaller companies who see a diminishing return on investment as the government takes in a larger and larger share of that "
closed" system. amazing how you completely ignore your own principle of a closed system as it relates to the other part of the economy, the government. well the government now has an even larger share of that pie in that system; but it sounds better to rant about corporations.
...and saying companies are taking profits "made off US citizens" implies they werent paid to do a job. just absurd. but again it makes for a nice rant; talking point, whatever you want to call it. and it's absurd to suggest that profit is the only motive behind everything. the people who start companies and run companies want to grow them; but AGAIN it's easier for you to suggest they would just rather hoard money that they would have, according to your own admission; re-invested even if it was taxed. were there no such hiding places or loopholes back then? and what are you declaring amnesty on? you want to make a law and apply it retroactively? a loophole by definition means it's legal, if not exactly honest. so what are you going to criminalize? cuz thats what you seem to be saying
oiz,
There is just no historic evidence of your contention in fact if you look at 20th century economic history the exact opposite is true. Low corporate and top bracket income taxes coupled with a ridiculous capital gains rates encourage investment in the market, bubble creation and profit taking. Since 1980 there have been 3 full blown market crashes the collapse of the S&L system and the collapse and bailout of the entire financial services sector. When rates are higher short term profit taking is discouraged and long term job producing capital investments are encouraged. US manufacturing's decline and near death were caused by runaway market investment and a lack of long term plant investment. Supply Side a made up economic term coined by economic propagandist Jude Wannisky applied over the long term moves virtually all wealth upward and concentrating it in the fewest hands coupled with a lack of credit control shifts massive amounts of private debt downward. Please show me any developed nation anywhere where low long term top brackets led to societal growth and not concentration of wealth and the formation of economic oligarchy.
jkh
you are saying a whole bunch of nothing. you have offered noting but your own opinion; even of others opinions; and offered it as fact. supply side means all wealth flows upward? and the rich dont spend their money right? they live in shacks made of cardboard and drive old Volkswagens right? second our top brackets arent low; that is a talking point the left uses. the rich pay income taxes and taxes on corporate gains and all the sales, fFederal and state taxes other people pay; but in higher amounts. it is th Federal government, along with state and local governments; that is taking a bigger and bigger portion of the common mans money; in the form of higher state and local taxes; fees for everything under the sun; and to pay the wages of the bloated, overpaid civil service workers.
Oz,
That is not my opinion that is empirical historic fact. Check any source for US economic statistics and it is 100% true. Each time wealth has been consolidated it has led to Depressions panics and depressions. Instead of believing Rightwing think tanks read US economic history since 1865. Look to the long Depression followed by the 1890s Panic a reversal under Roosevelts Progressive Administration following Wilson we had The Roaring 20s followed by a market crash and Depression followed by 40 years of growth with a couple of Eisenhower Recessions and the Nixon economic mishmash of policy. From Reagan through Bush II we had 5 recessions and the collapse of two financial sectors these are not opinions they are facts. Civil service workers are always lower paid than their counterparts in private industry. Reagan doubled the size of government and Bush increased it by 50% the only slow increases have been under Clinton and Obama. Wealthy people myself included pay a far lower % of my overall wealth in taxes. I pay the same % of property taxes and local and state taxes as well as sales taxes as my fellow Pennsylvania with 1/3 of our income and wealth. My Capital Gains average 15% on investments and I can defer taxes on IRA contributions for myself wife and children which most people can't even afford to make. I don't pay any more sales tax than a person worth half of what we are our food costs for four are no different except by choice than anyone else. The same with virtually everything else, the less you make the higher your % of debt and lower your savings. Virtually no one in the bottom 75% ever has a capital gain other than the possible sale of a house while others of us can get in and out of market opportunities and pay 15% on the profit. Mitt Romney paid less than 15% in Federal taxes. That is less than the average guy and is an absurdity. From 1952 the income, savings and wealth of all Americans grew steadily expanding the middle class and bringing a never before seen expansion of US industry, prestige and power since 1980 and the institution of unchecked greed as our national goal we have fallen in every measurable statistic except for redistribution of wealth and the creation of a financial oligarchy.
jkh
This election will start with the RECALL OF FAILED GOVERNOR SCOTT WALKER; removal of as many Tea Baggers in state and federal elections as possible and the refusal of the corporate takeover of the presidency. The more we fight the more Rove, the Koch Bros and the other Right Wing Superpacs will have to spread out their $$$$. I think they get more bang for their buck from the Congress and would probably turn their focus there. It's all ROI.
realist
How has Walker failed? He has brought down Unemployment from 7.7% Jan. 2011 to 6.9 Feb.2012. He eliminated a $3.6 Billion deficit. Wisconsin had a 3.4% growth in GDP last year. What is the US GDP Growth for last year? can you say 1.7%?
Now just where did he fail?
US GDP
http://www.measuringworth.com/datasets/usgdp/result.php
I'll let you do the math.
Wisconsin Unemployment.
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Wisconsin 3.6 Billion Deficit reduction.
http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2012/jan/29/scott-walker/gov-scott-walker-says-he-eliminated-wisconsins-36-/
Wisconsin GDP
http://www.usgovernmentspending.com/gdp_by_state
Slodon,
In the last 12 months Wisconsin leads the nation in lost jobs both public and private. He just attacked women in the workplace by signing the repeal of the 2009 Wi. Equal Pay Act. Walker promised 250,000 jobs and instead has lost 16,000. Bloomberg economic evaluation of states index ranks Walker's Wisconsin 42nd. In education while neighboring states invest in education Walkers Wisconsin is #1 in cuts per individual and #3 in percentage. The fact that a recall even could get enough traction to g forward isin itself an indictment of his policies.
jkh
Jim
Then how do you explain this.
Jan.2011 2833068 EMPLOYED
Mar.2012 2849581 EMPLOYED.
Now how is that a 16,000 loss of EMPLOYED PEOPLE??
http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Hayes; you are one joke of a walking left-wing talking point. the vast majority of the lost jobs in Wisconsin were government jobs; which proves the state workforce was bloated and wasteful. you can whine all day and try to salvage a bit of pride by saying it's an "indictment of Walkers policies" just to have come close to a recall; but in fact all points indicate Walker is going to beat it back. amazing how the pathetic left can make endless excuses for obama's dismal economic data with the excuse that "it will take years" to undo the Bush policies the loser left blames (the ones they voted for even after becoming a majority of everything) and yet walker needs to turn around the damage of Big Labor in Wisconsin overnight? lol
I don't know why the lnks wont work. Let me try it this way.
Go to
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LASST55000003
Slodon
Did you actually read your own citations. If you use the accounting method Walker did when claiming a 3 billion dollar deficit he still has the same deficit he is using the accounting method he condemned and swore not to use. US bureau of labor statistics cites a loss of 21,900 jobs from March 2011 through March 2012 with 6,000 in the private sector. Other than deep south states they and Indiana have the worst creation records in the nation.
jkh
Reports differ on this:
Here:
Wisconsin lost more jobs in the past year than any other state, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The bureau's figures show the state lost 23,900 jobs from March 2011 to March 2012. No other state lost more than 3,500 jobs, according to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel (http://bit.ly/IpnExl).
Of those 17,800 were government jobs.
The loss of 6,100 private-sector jobs was also tops among the 50 states and Wisconsin was the only one of those that saw a decrease in total non-farm jobs, which includes both the public and private sector.
and here:
Economists note that the employment head count worsened throughout much of last year, while the unemployment rate dropped by 0.8 percentage points in the 12 months since January 2011, when it stood at 7.7%. Part of the reason for the disparity is that the two figures are extrapolated from entirely different monthly surveys and measure different things: The total employment head count stems from a survey of employers, while the unemployment rate comes from a survey of households.
And Thursday's job report shows that 15,000 Wisconsinites dropped out of the labor pool in the past 12 months, enough to account for fully half of the decline in the unemployment rate, Ward said. "It's my opinion that the 0.8 percentage point drop is half explained by a shrinking workforce and half explained by shrinking unemployment."
And, if we look at the Bureau of Labor Statistics here:
Employees on nonfarm payrolls by state
Wisconsin
March, 2011 2,754,500
March, 2012 2,730,600
Fact is, Wisconsin leads the nation in job losses, not gains. And the biggest reason, which Walker's figures ignore (he compiled data only from companies in the state), are the huge layoffs in state workers.