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The battle for control of Congress this fall will be more closely fought than many Republicans had predicted in the heady days following their 2010 midterm landslide victories, according to those most closely involved in the campaign.
House Speaker John Boehner’s comments this week that the GOP has a “one-in-three” chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment. “We've got a fight on our hands and our hands need to be prepared,” Boehner told reporters on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, doubling down on his warning.
While the Ohio Republican’s admonition was mostly meant to guard against complacency among donors and lawmakers, it reflects a more grim assessment of the GOP’s chances in the House and Senate.
Richard Drew / AP
House Speaker John Boehner's comments this week that the GOP has a "one-in-three" chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment.
Republicans now privately expect to suffer a handful of losses in the House, expected partly to be a natural outgrowth of the receding Republican wave from 2010. And while the party remains optimistic in its chance to regain the Senate, Washington Republicans believe it wouldn’t be by any commanding margin.
"This is going to be an election that comes down to jobs, the economy and pocketbook issues. This is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies and how it translates down to congressional districts," said Brad Dayspring, a former spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor , R-Va., who now works for the Young Guns Action Fund, the super PAC founded by former aides to Cantor and GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy.
"It’s going to be whether Republicans can be trusted again to govern in a responsible manner," he said.
Forty-six percent of registered voters in April's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said they would prefer a Democratic Congress as the outcome of this fall's elections, versus 44 percent who said they’d prefer a Republican one. That's a closer margin for Republicans than in previous months, but general anti-incumbent fervor is running high, too.
Speaker John Boehner says Republicans have a 1 in 3 chance of losing the house, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer predicts the Democrats will take the 25 seats needed to win back a majority.
“Fairly or unfairly, House Republicans have become the face of Congress, and right now a root canal is more popular than Congress,” said Doug Thornell, a former aide on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Gone is the optimism from Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, the Republican in charge of his party’s campaign efforts in the House, from early 2011, when he predicted an expanded majority in November’s elections.
One Republican veteran of the party’s past campaign efforts pointed to two moments from the intervening 15 months that tarnished the party’s brand: the impasses associated with raising the debt ceiling and extending an expiring payroll tax cut.
"I don’t think that Republicans have had the opportunity to showcase what they are capable of doing; it’s hard to do with only one house in Congress," said the Republican. "But when they did have opportunities, they didn’t necessarily make the most of them."
The GOP entered the 2012 cycle with some built-in advantages. Down-ballot victories in 2010 helped the party shore up some seats through Census-mandated redistricting efforts, and Democrats must defend more seats (23) than Republicans in the Senate.
But Democrats argue that they have made inroads over the past year in recruiting top-flight candidates and defining Republicans, especially in reference to the controversial GOP budget in 2011.
"Nobody would have thought after we lost 63 seats in the House that we would fast-forward 18 months that we would have the candidates we have on 'Red to Blue,'" said one House Democratic campaign operative, referring to the party's initiative to flip Republican seats in November.
Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, pegged the odds of retaking the House even higher. "I think it's 50-50," he told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
To accomplish that feat, Democrats must win a net of 25 seats to retake control of the House. (Republicans caution that, because they expect to win at least a few seats, their opponents must win 35-40 seats to have a real chance of re-taking the House.)
By contrast, Republicans need a net gain of just four seats to win back the Senate.
Republicans are eager to stress the plethora of opportunities that could allow the party to accomplish its goal of winning the upper chamber. But they caution that the early projections last year that saw the GOP as competitive in over a dozen races were irrationally exuberant.
"The expectations were out of whack a year ago, and conversely, people's perspectives were out of whack, too," said one GOP strategist familiar with the party's campaign efforts in the upper chamber.
Republican candidates have struggled to get traction in states like Michigan, and few good GOP candidates have emerged in battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania — despite potentially vulnerable Democrats facing re-election this fall.
"I think that after 2012, people will look back and see there were missed opportunities not only in 2012 but in 2010, as well," said the veteran GOP operative of the party's campaign efforts, alluding to the instances last cycle in which Tea Party-affiliated candidates failed in winning competitive races.
Author and GQ contributor Robert Draper embedded himself in the House for a year, and he joins Morning Joe to offer an in-depth look at the House of the 112 Congress and how the Tea Party freshmen changed the tone of the House.
Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's decision to retire complicated Republicans' efforts to stymie losses, and Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown's re-election campaign is a virtual toss-up.
“We were not handed a friendly map at the beginning of this cycle but we went out and aggressively recruited great candidates in open and Republican-held seats, our incumbents built strong campaigns, and we are now more bullish than ever about keeping the majority,” said Matt Canter, the spokesman for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
At the same time, though, Republicans point out they could still lose a number of contests and still wrest the majority from Democrats if they're able to score victories in places like Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana — states traditionally friendly to Republicans.
For all of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney's talk of shrinking the size of government and repealing the president's health reform law, much of it depends on whether the GOP can retain control of the House and win back the Senate. On the flip side, Republican control of one or both chambers could also grind to a halt President Barack Obama's attempt to restructure taxes in a manner that shifts more burden to the wealthy.
To that end, both parties expect the presidential race to affect these downballot races. The Obama campaign's sophisticated turnout efforts in states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio — to name a few — could help propel Democrats' House and Senate candidates to a margin of victory.
In the same manner, Boehner's admonition this week focused partly on minimizing losses in so-called "orphan" states and districts, where the presidential race isn't being fought tightly. The GOP made gains in three such states — New York, Illinois and California — last cycle, and their ability to keep control of the House might hinge in part on their effectiveness of holding onto some of those seats.
Another major variable involves the full advent of super PACs, the unlimited campaign funds on both sides which can spend millions to pummel candidates whom they oppose. American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent with great effectiveness in 2010, and have already gone on the attack in 2012, most recently announcing a $1.2 million blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates.
“My biggest fear at both the House level and the presidential level is all of these outside groups coming in and spending tons of money,” Thornell said. “There are clearly now more of them, and they’re going to have millions of dollars. That’s going to be a huge challenge.”
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Rep, Marlin Stutzman(R) from Indiana was asked by a reporter about the do nothing congress. He stated that it wasn't a doing nothing congress, but also added that they had very little. If you were a private employer, that had a employee who told you that he had done very little, and the best approval rating that you could give this person was 9%, how long would you keep him? They all need to go! We need people in Washington that will work for the good of the American people, and not for just a certain political agenda.
They were all to busy campaigning for re-election to get any work done.
Ryan Budget...just keep hammering away at that alone and many of these Congressman are in trouble if the voters are paying attention.
That's the problem, most of them don't pay attention.
Democrats had control of congress when George Bush was in office, a time when Obama says everything went wrong. Now they need to get out of the way and let Republicans try to pick up the pieces from the mess they left.
Obama and Democrats are the cancer and Republicans are the cure.
in
Republicans keep asking where is the Senate budget bill? There never has nor ever will be a Senate budget bill.
A bit of history for those who might be interested in the process the Founding Fathers specified regarding revenue and expenditures. First, the House of Representatives was referred to as the People's House, while the Senate members were to represent the States' interests. (Senators were not elected by popular vote until the Constitution was amended with the adoption of the 17th Amendment. Before that Amendment, state legislatures elected US Senators.)
All tax and appropriations bills must originate in the House - the People's House - per Article 1, Section 7 of the Constitution. The House has passed a budget bill - the Ryan bill - and it has been forwarded to the Senate or will soon be.
The Senate is unlikely to approve the House bill as written. As a practical matter, the Senate can not simply vote the House budget down. The Senate Finance Committee will hold hearings on the House budget bill and will likely amend it extensively and refer it to the Senate floor. Given the political climate in the Senate, it may not even reach the floor for debate. If it does. however, and can bypass a fillibuster, and gain a majority vote in favor as amended, it will be sent back to the House. The House can concur in the Senate amendments or choose not to accept the Senate amendments, in which case a conference committee will be appointed by the Speaker and the Senate Majority leader.
In the meantime, Congress will continue to pass continuing resolutions to keep the federal government functioning.
So, for those wondering why the Senate has not passed a budget, a Senate passed budget would violate Article 1, Section 7.
Just thought you might be interested.
Such a non issue ....
American's now owe almost $16 trillion and it will soon rise above that .... "LOL"
Keep Obama's freebees flowing strong like the great Niagara Falls ....
Let our great , great , great , great , great , great grandchildren worry about it .... "LOL"
Freebees for all American citizen or not ....
Come to America ....
Get free treats and goodies ....
Big Ben... political commentary really isn't your strong point. Stick to something you're probably good at...take Ted Nugent poaching with ya
Ted's been helping disabled vets for over 20 years ....
I guess you're such a much greater American than he is ....
There enough blame to go around for all branches of government.
But when I think of lack of leadership Boehner is the poster
child. He couldn’t deliver his party of debt reduction and only passed the
extension of the payroll tax reduction when the polls said they were going to
get run out on a rail. This brinkmanship cost the American people our AAA bond
rating and will cost every citizen more in taxes in the future.
I don’t know of anyone that trust government to do anything.
The last two vestiges of trust the Secret Service and the Supreme Court have
shown they have feet of clay. The only thing we have respect for is the Army,
were starting to sound like Egypt.
Vote every incumbent in both houses out of office, maybe the
scare will remind them who they should be serving.
First of all I hate the republican party and it's agenda. Although I try very hard not to hate individual people I do have a great dislike for all things republican, including the people who are part of that party. Trickle Down economics or Reaganomics never has worked. That type of thinking just keeps the middle class and poor right where they are forever. Think of it like this: You feed your dogs scraps from your table while you eat a feast. Sure your dog is just happy to be your slave, humble servant, as long as your feeding hm but the only difference is your dog does not have a mind to realize he is nothing more than a slave to his master. So if you like being a slave to your master then by all means be part of the republican party. Republicans have broken every promise they have ever made in the past 20 years. George W. Bush spent three trillion dollars invading an innocent country, Iraq, on the false pretense of weapons of mass destruction and yet the republican party wants to destroy the social safety net built up over the last 80 years. The Honorable and Brave President Obama wanted to put a million people to work rebuiding our nations infrastructure yet he was blocked by a republican party who seem to care less that our infrastructure is falling apart. Our highways and bridges our approaching 60 years of service an it's time to fix and replace many of them. Our railroads are old and outdated. Our sewer, water, and power lines are old, outdated and in grave need of repair and updating. Finally we need to update all of our air traffic control facilities with new technology. This needs to happen now rather than later. How many of you remember the Minnesota Bridge Collapse. But no the republicans would rather invade Iraq because, well who the hell knows why. I have given up trying to figure it out. Good Day, Joe.
Dems had two solid years of cram anything up our azz they wanted. Why didn't they fix those thing you complain about?
The republicans could NOT stop them. So why didnt they get it done?
How could the Democrats cram anything past a Bush veto?
Dems got thier chance and as usual it's going ot take ten years to dig out of the mess. And before you go pointing to Clinton, there was a republican controled house and senate when he was elected.
*Those who fail to learn from history are doomed ot repeat it*
And we are reapting Jimmy Carter x's 10
Vote Obama ....
Keep his freebees flowing strong ....
Vote GOP...keep that corporate welfare flowing baby...
Funny how they are the ones paying the majority of U.S. taxes .... "LOL"
so, ben, it's money trumping policy? Can you say 'oligarchy'?
Good thing the Party of No was unable to "showcase" their programs. We would be in the Great Depression II.
Remember Pelosi and her big gavel? Reid is just the water boy for Obama.
I am not a DEMOCRAT. I am not a REPUBLICAN. I am a tax-paying citizen. Quit worrying about your campaign donors and your super PACs and start worrying about MY health and well-being. In the end, I'm the one paying your salary.
sucker, the Gov. is not going to worry about U! they will worry about themselves, that is the falacy of Big Gov. by Obama for Obama. If you are expecting free Obama money yourgiong to be very dissappointed, and poor.
Well John of Orange since you have an approval rating barely above pond scum what do you expect? You have done nothing but destroy the country's credit rating over games, not been able to pass anything but gas, and basically told women you can not be in charge of your bodies because you don't know how...so enjoy your election.
JOB 1
I find it interesting when people that aren't politicians call taxes "Revenues". If you are the kind of person that thinks taxes are too low because our government spends too much you deserve the government you get.
If you think the government can simply raise taxes and not cut spending significantly you need to ease off of the Kool Aid.
I abhor huge deficits. I also abhor useless and baseless wars that cause huge deficits.
"I don’t think that Republicans have had the opportunity to showcase what they are capable of doing...".
On the contrary, I think we've seen exactly what the Republicans are capable of doing.
They are capable of bringing the U.S. economy to its knees rather than signing up for an economic Grand Bargain.
They are capable of voting for lower taxes for the wealthy rather than finding ways to fix the economy for us all.
They are capable of "not fixing" health care, but instead shifting all of the cost risk from Medicare to the individual citizen.
Perhaps they are known as the "Party of No" for a reason...
Seriously, do you read anything but this biased blog? Please be more informed before you vote. Or are you old enough?
Tea Party - Experiment gone horribly wrong.
GOP Plan for last two years - Do anything, even to the detriment of our country, to defeat Obama.
GOP plan for the future?
Ryan Budget....brrrrrrrrrrr
oh man... come November I do hope I get to see John Boner cry real tears
No one left with a working American brain believes this ongoing fairytale is anything more than media-scripted to convince us it's real.
The "special" power manipulating our environment can't change reality by altering the window dressing behind their puppet show. So instead, they presume changing our perceptions will do that deed by telling us what we (should) think.
When voting has been compromised by technology, votes have no effect. Change will only come from individual actions now. The ability to compromise group efforts has established these globalists' hold on U.S. sovereignty and its citizen victims, as it eliminates our economy, free choice, and personal privacy.
It's do or die time, folks. And only now counts because later will be too late.
I still predict a Far Right government is elected. Not a single word in here about the massive gerrymandering efforts of the GOP over the past decades to ensure continued control of the House. And they will almost certainly take the Senate. The White House is a toss up right now. If they get that they get a couple of Supreme Court appointments which would lock that court as Far Right. Never seen anything like it nor did I ever expect to see hatred succeed at such a high level in this country. But it has and living in a Red State I hear and see the evidence every day.
I feel your pain...
It is disheartening to see such ignorance. Lies believed, public decieved.
And they eat it up like candy...sad.
Get these Republican goons out of the mix once and for all. They are obstuctionists who do not have the working folks' backs, and we need to take away their power.
I AGREE we all need to be equal with no one richer than the next...that has worked out really well historicaly ...right?
I'm still wondering when Obama will ball up and accept even the weenciest amount of blame for our economic situation...I do feel like he has created alot of jobs...Cenus jobs were permanant right?
LET ME BE CLEAR....
We don't want to work ....
Obama's freebees are much better ....
2 year of unemployment benefits should be extended to 3 years ....
I adore the fact that the people on government aid get to vote themselves a raise....what a perfect system!
OBAMA/BIDEN for the needy....darn shame that they don't understand that the handouts just keep them down.
Our debt and deficit is keeping us all down ....
Waite until we have to begin to confront it ....
That's if we don't have to default first ....
"This is going to be an election that comes down to jobs, the economy and pocketbook issues. This is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies and how it translates down to congressional districts," said Brad Dayspring, a former spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor , R-Va., who now works for the Young Guns Action Fund, the super PAC founded by former aides to Cantor and GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy."
This is going to an election where the people show that they're tired of the GOP saying no on everything simply because they don't want democrats to suceed at anything. I'm an independent, and I've voted both parties in my lifetime, but until the GOP shows me that they're actually working for the people again, and not big money, or just to fight another party, I won't vote for them again. The country has been in a mess now for two decades and all they can think about is making sure the Dems look bad for the next elections.
Personally I think we should stop allowing them to make any laws and that we should have to vote on anything that gets passed. That would cut out all the BS in Washington then. Let them discuss them and present them to us for the vote.
Now now you GOP/T-Pers, so much for your Jobs, Jobs, Jobs mantra that you right wing-nuts ran on. And how about your darling Tea-party-ers, With a taliban/hostage taking policy on every and anything good for this nation, just to make the President look bad, never mind "We the People". With your Ryan the Destroyer bills coming under scrutiny. Even the Georgetown University Catholics wrote him a letter condeming is actions about his so called Christian way of destroying the little man, and the poor. While still trying to give out more and more tax breaks to the rich. And to boot, perverting what Jesus Christ himself was so adamantly against. So now you right wing-nuts are in a snit, but don't fret. don't get your panties all bunched up. In order to set things right again. All you GOPers have to do is a real simple thing. Govern for all of us Americans, not just the rich, oil companies and corporations. Wow what a stellar idea. But here is where you right wing-nuts are put in a lose-lose situation. If you do what you GOPers were elected to do. Govern over all the people. Then you right wing-nuts wouldn't be Republicans, you would be called Democrats... Duh
Go figure, then go vote...
Yeah, when did Christ become a Republican anyway? (I think it was under Reagan! LOL!)
I will vote against each and every teabagger that runs.
Here goes our media again, trying to manipulate the vote in November by convincing the "naive" public that a certain candidate or party is "going to win". They can get what they want only if there are enough idiotic people out there who will vote for the designated "winner" so they "won't waste their votes". LOL