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The battle for control of Congress this fall will be more closely fought than many Republicans had predicted in the heady days following their 2010 midterm landslide victories, according to those most closely involved in the campaign.
House Speaker John Boehner’s comments this week that the GOP has a “one-in-three” chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment. “We've got a fight on our hands and our hands need to be prepared,” Boehner told reporters on Capitol Hill on Wednesday, doubling down on his warning.
While the Ohio Republican’s admonition was mostly meant to guard against complacency among donors and lawmakers, it reflects a more grim assessment of the GOP’s chances in the House and Senate.
Richard Drew / AP
House Speaker John Boehner's comments this week that the GOP has a "one-in-three" chance of losing the House sent shockwaves through the political establishment.
Republicans now privately expect to suffer a handful of losses in the House, expected partly to be a natural outgrowth of the receding Republican wave from 2010. And while the party remains optimistic in its chance to regain the Senate, Washington Republicans believe it wouldn’t be by any commanding margin.
"This is going to be an election that comes down to jobs, the economy and pocketbook issues. This is going to be a referendum on the president’s economic policies and how it translates down to congressional districts," said Brad Dayspring, a former spokesman for House Majority Leader Eric Cantor , R-Va., who now works for the Young Guns Action Fund, the super PAC founded by former aides to Cantor and GOP Whip Kevin McCarthy.
"It’s going to be whether Republicans can be trusted again to govern in a responsible manner," he said.
Forty-six percent of registered voters in April's NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll said they would prefer a Democratic Congress as the outcome of this fall's elections, versus 44 percent who said they’d prefer a Republican one. That's a closer margin for Republicans than in previous months, but general anti-incumbent fervor is running high, too.
Speaker John Boehner says Republicans have a 1 in 3 chance of losing the house, House Minority Whip Steny Hoyer predicts the Democrats will take the 25 seats needed to win back a majority.
“Fairly or unfairly, House Republicans have become the face of Congress, and right now a root canal is more popular than Congress,” said Doug Thornell, a former aide on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Gone is the optimism from Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, the Republican in charge of his party’s campaign efforts in the House, from early 2011, when he predicted an expanded majority in November’s elections.
One Republican veteran of the party’s past campaign efforts pointed to two moments from the intervening 15 months that tarnished the party’s brand: the impasses associated with raising the debt ceiling and extending an expiring payroll tax cut.
"I don’t think that Republicans have had the opportunity to showcase what they are capable of doing; it’s hard to do with only one house in Congress," said the Republican. "But when they did have opportunities, they didn’t necessarily make the most of them."
The GOP entered the 2012 cycle with some built-in advantages. Down-ballot victories in 2010 helped the party shore up some seats through Census-mandated redistricting efforts, and Democrats must defend more seats (23) than Republicans in the Senate.
But Democrats argue that they have made inroads over the past year in recruiting top-flight candidates and defining Republicans, especially in reference to the controversial GOP budget in 2011.
"Nobody would have thought after we lost 63 seats in the House that we would fast-forward 18 months that we would have the candidates we have on 'Red to Blue,'" said one House Democratic campaign operative, referring to the party's initiative to flip Republican seats in November.
Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer, the second-ranking Democrat in the House, pegged the odds of retaking the House even higher. "I think it's 50-50," he told reporters on Capitol Hill on Tuesday.
To accomplish that feat, Democrats must win a net of 25 seats to retake control of the House. (Republicans caution that, because they expect to win at least a few seats, their opponents must win 35-40 seats to have a real chance of re-taking the House.)
By contrast, Republicans need a net gain of just four seats to win back the Senate.
Republicans are eager to stress the plethora of opportunities that could allow the party to accomplish its goal of winning the upper chamber. But they caution that the early projections last year that saw the GOP as competitive in over a dozen races were irrationally exuberant.
"The expectations were out of whack a year ago, and conversely, people's perspectives were out of whack, too," said one GOP strategist familiar with the party's campaign efforts in the upper chamber.
Republican candidates have struggled to get traction in states like Michigan, and few good GOP candidates have emerged in battlegrounds like Florida, Ohio, or Pennsylvania — despite potentially vulnerable Democrats facing re-election this fall.
"I think that after 2012, people will look back and see there were missed opportunities not only in 2012 but in 2010, as well," said the veteran GOP operative of the party's campaign efforts, alluding to the instances last cycle in which Tea Party-affiliated candidates failed in winning competitive races.
Author and GQ contributor Robert Draper embedded himself in the House for a year, and he joins Morning Joe to offer an in-depth look at the House of the 112 Congress and how the Tea Party freshmen changed the tone of the House.
Maine Sen. Olympia Snowe's decision to retire complicated Republicans' efforts to stymie losses, and Massachusetts Republican Sen. Scott Brown's re-election campaign is a virtual toss-up.
“We were not handed a friendly map at the beginning of this cycle but we went out and aggressively recruited great candidates in open and Republican-held seats, our incumbents built strong campaigns, and we are now more bullish than ever about keeping the majority,” said Matt Canter, the spokesman for Senate Democrats’ campaign arm.
At the same time, though, Republicans point out they could still lose a number of contests and still wrest the majority from Democrats if they're able to score victories in places like Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota and Montana — states traditionally friendly to Republicans.
For all of presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney's talk of shrinking the size of government and repealing the president's health reform law, much of it depends on whether the GOP can retain control of the House and win back the Senate. On the flip side, Republican control of one or both chambers could also grind to a halt President Barack Obama's attempt to restructure taxes in a manner that shifts more burden to the wealthy.
To that end, both parties expect the presidential race to affect these downballot races. The Obama campaign's sophisticated turnout efforts in states like Virginia, Nevada and Ohio — to name a few — could help propel Democrats' House and Senate candidates to a margin of victory.
In the same manner, Boehner's admonition this week focused partly on minimizing losses in so-called "orphan" states and districts, where the presidential race isn't being fought tightly. The GOP made gains in three such states — New York, Illinois and California — last cycle, and their ability to keep control of the House might hinge in part on their effectiveness of holding onto some of those seats.
Another major variable involves the full advent of super PACs, the unlimited campaign funds on both sides which can spend millions to pummel candidates whom they oppose. American Crossroads and its non-profit arm, Crossroads GPS, spent with great effectiveness in 2010, and have already gone on the attack in 2012, most recently announcing a $1.2 million blitz against five Democratic Senate candidates.
“My biggest fear at both the House level and the presidential level is all of these outside groups coming in and spending tons of money,” Thornell said. “There are clearly now more of them, and they’re going to have millions of dollars. That’s going to be a huge challenge.”
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It's just an unbelievable head shaker that anybody in their right mind would want the RepubiCONS to have control over anything ever again. They are the Party of NO and have shown their true colors of favoring the rich and entitled far too many times to be ignored. Actually every time if you're taking any notice.
They continually try to brainwash the ones with the least that the Democrats are bad.
The Democrats are the ONLY party that actually cares about what happens to American Citizens.
It's so sad to sit and watch the lies and corruption the Republicans and even worse The Mad Hatters Tea Party.
I just hope for everyone's sake that the Republican Party has NO say in the very near future.
Yep, they'll just tell you that the wealth they give to the few at the top will miraculously "trickle" down and that if you are getting screwed by their policies, you are just a lazy socialist looking for a handout!
Why are they the party of No? Because they say "No" to your idealogy and "Yes" to their own? I can just as easily flip your comment on its head and claim Dems are the party of "No" because they say no to Republican idealogy. That's all.
Adam, you are correct that both Parties have certain tenets to be fought for. Having said that, however, their ultimate purpose is to govern. As anyone who has engaged in public policy debates knows, the goal is for each side to fight the good fight but each side must recognize that a good bill is often attainable in lieu of the perfect bill.
Back in the good old days, the rabid members of both parties had to yield to the their moderate members to reach an agreement. That's why politics has often been called the art of the possible. Unfortunately, there are very few, if any, true moderates left - they used to be called Statesmen.
I believe what Congress does no to seem to comphrend, we pay thier salaries, retirement and insurance. But if you do not do your job, then you get fired. When you stdy history, most of the time the people there whether they agreed or not, seemed to work out something. The people we have now in our Congress, have no respect, and whether you like the President or not is not important, he is President, and you should respect the Office, Eric Cantor from Virginia does not understand nor respect anything but himself.
Jimmy Carter should keep his mouth shut, he was so Stupid when he was President, he let over 400 Americans lanquish in a foreign Prison because he did not have the guts to use our military to get them out. He could support Romney, give me a break.
No No to Mitt. hope everyone is listening. Hope we see all new faces in Congress. If not how about if we start a Campaign and impeach all those that are not voted out. These people that do not do their jobs lets fire them.
I did not vote for Obama the first time, but I guess a second time around could be better.
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It doesn't really matter since unless the Democrats win a super majority in both the house and the senate the Republicans will filibuster and block anything our President tries to do.
The tea party has been a dismal failure americans have seen it first hand the obstuctionist party Boehner said he got 98% of what he wanted thats how much Obama was willing to comprimise for the good of the country yet the tea party voted that down its time they go back to the rock they crawled out of Democrats all the way this Nov. We've seen enough.
With nearly 50% of Americans paying no income tax and the same percentage receiving government assistance of some sort, we have reached the tipping point. The dynamics of a free market economy that made America great are simply gone. It is a descent into nanny-state socialism from here on. Of course Americans are concerned!
I know! We need to stop helping these poor people who lost their jobs due to poor republican decisions and either throw them on the streets or start up some nazi like work camps for these "nannies". Keep feeding the rich more and more money and the society as a whole will greatly benefit from that!! moron!
we can not handle a out of control president that his party has control of the other two as well. this would be a nightmare for everyone.
not just republican but everyone.
just think of what this idiot president that has out spent the last 10 presidents combined. he did it in 2.5 years while it took the ten 50 years to spend that much.
a smaller government is what we need. in history as governments grow out of control socialism creeps in. oboma is heading this ship in that direction.
he is no better than the people we are help rid in the middle east.
i hope anyone but oboma's party has control.
Go soak your head in a martini glass.....oh, my bad, that's what you have been doing for all the years you've been in Washington, boehner. Time to let some good people create real jobs instead of the gnop creating snowjobs and blowjobs.
Its exciting to watch Boehner throw the liberals a bone...watch them fling their koolaid and spew into the air...then PULL THE RUG OUT FROM UNDERNEATH THEM...then give them a good coating of that SHELLACKING...LOL
if congress (boehner) wasn't so spineless the fight would be won hands down! but really, isn't all about the whose pockets get the fastest in the end...just sayin!
In Minnesota, the Republican Party is a couple of million dollars in debt, and have been served an eviction notice by their landlord because they haven't paid their full rent in a year. This is why they are not seen as a party of fiscal responsibility, and why so many call them hypocrites. The party of "Jobs, the economy, and let's mess with social issues" has done it's best to destroy itself. One need only look at the crop of presidential candidates they put forward.
Go, good-bye and good riddance! I realize you republicons don't want to hear this, but I am SO much better off now than under the reign of King George Rove Chenney it isn't funny. Under their horrific leadership, I lost $100k in equity in my home and $110k in earnings. It's taken since Obama was elected for me to get back to where I was in 2002. Because of health-care reform my 19 year old can be covered under my plan. YOU just want to continue to spout hate and 'anybody but' when your track record sucks and speaks for itself.
You need to blame Bill Clinton and Barney Frank,, They caused the housing crisis not Bush! Problem with you liberals you have blinders on, and talk about hate check out obama and his people! By the way you sound like you got alot in your system. You must have alot of misery in your life!
Had the Republicans delivered on their promise of jobs following the 2010 midterm elections, they wouldn't have to worry about losing the House. Instead of working to improve the economy they decided to play partisan politics and say "no" to every one of Obama's policies in their stated goal of making him a one-term president.
The House will remain in Republican hands. Obama and his regime have done irrepirable damage to his party with his radical left wing ideology and his autocratic ruling method. What we are seeing is Buyer's Remorse to the 100th power. Many of the House Seats are in staunchly Conservative districts and have very little chance of being taken. Additionally, recent polls have shown that an alarming number of Democratic Seats are in trouble and essentially up for grabs.
Don't believe the left wing hype.
The only people not working is in the White House and the Senate! Talk about putting us in the tank!
Until the American public wakes up and realizes all this Team Red vs. Team Blue bull*hit is just a smoke screen to distract us from the real game being played, nothing is going to change and our lot will continue to get worse. One side wants to take away our money, the other wants to take away our privacy. The real truth is as long as both of these two parties effectively hold every office in this land, it really doesn't even matter which one is in charge -- they will both just continue to take from us.
I think its time to clean house.If any of them has been there longer then two terms its time for them to go.Presidents and Governers only have two terms why should they get more?
John Lewis- thanks for shading the light. To bad none of the nuckle -heads in here are listening.
Obamanomics: Print money, print money, print money. UHHHH...what's a national debt?
toughluv--it was Cheney that said "Don't worry about deficits"--in other words, the debt.
Please give the house back to the democrats. Nancy Pelosi really gives a duck about you. Congress gave us an unconstitutional healthcare bill and 5 Trillion in new debt in 3 years under Obama. Please elect democrats this will speed up our downfall substantually.
Mide, Fact: Bush did not include the price of his war in his budget and as soon as the President was sworn in, he included that cost in his budget which made it far worse looking.
A national debt is something that has just doubled in the last 3 years moron.
The media is desperate, obama is tied with Mitt at best! and no one who loses the Prez, wins congress! we tossed out Pelosi and her and Reids ways, we almost got reid and we will this time around, no one is bring back Pelosi. It was only 2 years ago and the voters are still pissed off at her and Obama. And when the SC gets done with obama, the demonrats will all be running for cover.
Now lets do an article on how much the Democratic Senate and President have accomplished. Harry Reid hasn't passed or proposed a budget in 1000 days or more. Obama ramrodded healthcare through when he had a majority and now we are starting to see the real cost. At least the Republicans have sent forward bills that would be a start point for negotiations but Dirty Harry refuses to let them get to the floor for discussion. You want to know what they call that in some places obstructionism. He is paid to pass a budget to fund the country and he has been derilict. Where in the constitution does it say a person elected not by the country but by a state should have that much power.
I guess you conveniently forgot when Florida gave Bush the Presidency with their damned hanging chads. I'd say they set the precedent.
The Entitlement Society has the majority, if enough of them vote. Their sycophants, better known as their elected representatives have made sure of that. Promise more entitlements and win-over more voters - it's called the tyranny of the masses! How foolish we private sector workers are to be so easily led to the slaughter like lemmings. Like it or not, the Republicans have become the workers' party (or better said, the taxpayers' party).
Republicans are no nirvana, but Romney is a straight-shooter and no pushover behind closed doors. He is the USA's only choice if we are to regain the losses in our economic engine. Losses that have occurred during all presidential reigns since Reagan.
The Republicans are the domestic version of Al Qaeda. They haved worked hard to make working Americans suffer and to destroy educational institutions. They need to be thrown out.
The GOP in Congress has shown its' true colors. Stop Obama at all costs, no matter what the cost to the public is. Boehner can start crying because he and the Tea Party have failed the American public. As an Independent voter, I do not care what the christian right or the Teat Party does, I am voting Democrat this time.
Nancy Pelosi, 2006: "We're going to bring integrity and honor back to Washington".
When?