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Patrick Kane / AP
President Barack Obama speaks at the Rolls-Royce Crosspointe manufacturing facility in Virginia's Prince George County, Friday, March 9, 2012.
This is the economy election, right? Tell that to the world.
President Barack Obama is getting another dose of the reality of his job: the out-of-his-control events that shape whether he will keep it.
He is lobbying Israel not to launch on attack on Iran that could set the Middle East on fire and pull the United States into another war. He is struggling to get world powers to unite on halting a massacre in Syria. He is on the defensive about staying in Afghanistan after a U.S. soldier allegedly went on a killing spree against civilians.
And back home, where the economy is king, everyone is talking about the price of gasoline. Which, as Obama can't say enough, no one can control right now.
A new CBS News/NYT poll has President Obama's approval rating down nine points from February 2012 to 41 percent. What's behind the steep drop?
The Republican presidential candidates don't have to worry as much about all this because they don't have the responsibility of governing — a luxury Obama likes to note, although he enjoyed the same when he was the challenger. The Republicans, though, are being drawn into events beyond their preferred message of the day.
For Obama, whose re-election bid looks rosier with every good month of job creation, the political risk in the least is that he gets knocked off message. That happened Monday when Obama and the White House spent a lot of effort trying to focus on energy, but the dominant news was the horrific rampage in Afghanistan.
The bigger worry for Obama is that all the outside events conspire to sour the public mood, give people more to worry about and create an opening for Republicans to challenge his leadership. Just because presidents may not be able to control problems does not mean they don't get blamed for them.
"There are so many of them now, and dire ones," said Barbara Perry, a scholar of the American presidency at the University of Virginia's Miller Center.
"People may not care much about what Israel is doing, or even what Iran is doing, but given American dependence on Mideast oil, that has a direct impact on the pocketbook. Do these things inevitably have an impact on the campaign? Absolutely, because they will be the questions put to the presidential candidates."
As one example, the price at the pump carries political risk for Obama, who is taking a pounding over the issue in the polls.
The average price for a gallon of gasoline is now about $3.80, the highest ever for this time of year. The White House says anyone suggesting a quick fix is lying to voters. Instead, Obama pushes energy exploration across the board and reminds folks he championed a payroll tax cut that kept money in their pockets.
That doesn't offer as much election-year satisfaction for the typical commuter.
"The reality is that the oil prices and the gas prices that we pay here in the United States are set on the global market," Interior Secretary Ken Salazar told reporters Monday. "We don't set them, and we don't control them. This president and this Congress can't control those prices."
Clearly. Obama has gotten used to this dynamic.
Good news has come before on the economy, only to be suffocated by outside events. Just a few months ago, Obama attributed a slowing economy to the Japanese tsunami, the Arab Spring and the European debt crisis (not to mention his ugly showdown with Congress over a near-government default).
Now sizable job growth has taken hold by the month, but that pattern is hardly assured through Election Day. Obama still has a wary eye on Europe's economic stability, a slowdown in China could undermine the United States, and the turmoil surrounding Iran and Israel that could further jolt gas prices and, perhaps, lead to war.
It was a telling sign when Obama held his first news conference of the year last week and got not one question on the economy writ large. The focus was on the threat of a preemptive Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear sites. Now the attention is back on the Afghanistan war as Obama warns against a hasty retreat.
So it goes for presidents.
The big problems of the day are covered by the media, evaluated by pollsters and viewed within the election context.
Still, the general election campaign is expected to come down to which contender has better answers for people looking for a job, a better career, a way to keep their house, a sense of security.
"The three most important issues of the election are the economy, the economy and the economy," Obama campaign adviser Robert Gibbs said.
Indeed, an Associated Press-GfK poll of issues last month found 91 percent of people said the economy was highly important to them. Obama's team says the choice for voters is about restoring American security for all or going back to a free-for-all approach that led to the crisis. Republicans say he's failed to lead.
The White House isn't out to make this election about foreign policy, but Gibbs said "I don't think it hurts" if the conversation turns that way.
Obama has a story to tell on the killing of Osama bin Laden, the ending of the war in Iraq, the squeezing of Iran through sanctions.
The direction of the war in Afghanistan has been on that list too. But now it's a question, and Obama has to answer.
Afghanistan is raging with anti-Americanism after U.S. troops burned Qurans last month and, over the weekend, a soldier allegedly killed 16 Afghan civilians and burned many of the bodies.
Obama was questioned about the horrific incident by television reporters from around the nation. They had been invited to the White House to talk about energy, but they pushed him on when the U.S. will be getting out of Afghanistan too. Obama said the United States must not rush to the exits.
So the timetable remains: the end of 2014, at the latest, for Americans to get out of a combat role in Afghanistan.
And this one: a little under nine months left for any issue in the world to rock Obama's re-election bid.
Leave a Comment:
LOL - MSNBC is saying the being the President may cost Obama the Presidency? Out of his control? A little leadership and he would be much more in control.
If this was Bush it would all be his fault.
The media is getting scary - we are not reading the truth.
Nice try MSNBCOBAMA but the people are waking up as the poll numbers show.
The economy looks better every day. The banks are stable as is the American auto industry, we're out of Iraq and planning for extraction from Afganistan. Jobless numbers are going down in 26 states. We're getting the bad guys all over the world. Oil prices are up but they are for everyone in the world. We can't control that. With all of this news the GOP wants to be pesomistic. Well go wallow in your misery. Most everyone else is optomistic. We're also optomistic that we will kick the GOPs ass in the next election. Things are looking real good.
The pesky debt and running deficit will derail it Johnny. Along with the taxation set to hit in 2013/2014. No economy can borrow and spend forever. If you were swiping your credit cards all day for months your household would look better too.
Econ 101. It's not all that hard to understand. For some.
if you think running a country is the same as running a household you need to forget Econ 101 and start over again in kindergarten
It wasn't my fault, I didn't do it and you can't prove it. Get rid of this inept full of excuses President. Anybody would be better.
I'm sorry but as much of these events are outside the president's control, the American people don't care if it is so. They care about their paycheque, house, petrol. As president, if he thinks Americans want him to be God to give them a job or a low price of petrol, then so be it.
As I continue debating progressives and conservatives about Obama’s
many accomplishments, I've decided to classify and list just a few of
them.
He made 500 promises, 78% of them are at different stages of
completion and 11% have been broken. I’ve listed only the “titles” of
the policies.
Many of these policies have been on the progressive wish-list for
decades and we need to make sure Obama can finish the job. Remember, he
has accomplished much more than is indicated on this list:
1. Extend Require economic justification for tax changes
2. Child tax credits and marriage-penalty fixes
3. Extend the Bush tax cuts for lower incomes
4. Extend and index the 2007 Alternative Minimum Tax patch
1. Create an Advanced Manufacturing Fund to invest in peer-reviewed manufacturing
processes
2. Expand loan programs for small businesses
3. Raise the small business investment expensing limit to $250,000 through the
end of 2009
1. Increase minority access to capital
2. Implement "Women Owned Business" contracting program
3. Reinstate executive order to hire an additional 100,000 federal employees with
disabilities within five years.
4. Grant Americans unrestricted rights to visit family and send money to Cuba
5. Promote cultural diplomacy
6. Appoint an American Indian policy adviser
7. Work to overturn Ledbetter vs. Goodyear
8. Increase the Veterans Administration budget to recruit and retain more mental
health professionals
9. Appoint a special adviser to the president on violence against women
10. Fully fund the Violence Against Women Act
1. Expand the Nurse-Family Partnership to all low-income, first-time mothers
2. Give tax credits to those who need help to pay health premiums
3. Expand eligibility for Medicaid
4. Provide affordable, high-quality child care
5. Expand Pell grants for low-income students
6. Establish 'Promise Neighborhoods' for areas of concentrated poverty
7. Extend unemployment insurance benefits and temporarily suspend taxes on
these benefits
1. Change standards for determining broadband access
2. Support network neutrality on the Internet
3. Appoint the nation's first Chief Technology Officer
1. Establish a credit card bill of rights
2. Create new financial regulations
3. Create new criminal penalties for mortgage fraud
4. Health Policy
5. Reverse restrictions on stem cell research
6. Close the "doughnut hole" in Medicare prescription drug plan
7. Require insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions
8. Expand the Senior Corps volunteer program
9. Require large employers to contribute to a national health plan
10. Require children to have health insurance coverage
11. Expand eligibility for State Children's Health Insurance Fund (SCHIP)
12. Require health plans to disclose how much of the premium goes to patient care
13. Establish an independent health institute to provide accurate and objective
information
14. In non-competitive markets, force insurers to pay out a reasonable share of
their premiums for patient care
15. Eliminate the higher subsidies to Medicare Advantage plans
16. Expand funding to train primary care providers and public health practitioners
17. Increase funding to expand community based prevention programs
18. Sign a "universal" health care bill
1. Fully fund the Veterans Administration
2. Assure that the Veterans Administration budget is prepared as 'must-pass'
legislation
3. Expand the Veterans Administration's number of "centers of excellence" in
specialty care
4. Create a military families advisory board
1. Direct military leaders to end war in Iraq
2. Begin removing combat brigades from Iraq
3. No permanent bases in Iraq
4. Send two additional brigades to Afghanistan
5. Strengthen and expand military exchange programs with other countries
6. Make greater investment in advanced military air technology
7. End the abuse of supplemental budgets for war
1. Bolster the military's ability to speak different languages
2. Make U.S. military aid to Pakistan conditional on anti-terror efforts
3. Open "America Houses" in Islamic cities around the globe
4. Give a speech at a major Islamic forum in the first 100 days of his administration
5. Allocate Homeland Security funding according to risk
6. Create a real National Infrastructure Protection Plan
7. Increase funding for local emergency planning
8. Stop the development of new nuclear weapons
9. Seek verifiable reductions in nuclear stockpiles
10. Extend monitoring and verification provisions of the START I Treaty
11. Stand down nuclear forces to be reduced under the Moscow Treaty
12. Organize successful Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) Review Conference in 2010
13. Appoint a White House Coordinator for Nuclear Security
14. Initiate a grant and training program for law enforcement to deter cyber crime
15. Improve relations with Turkey, and its relations with Iraqi Kurds
16. Launch an international Add Value to Agriculture Initiative (AVTA)
17. Create a rapid response fund for emerging democracies
18. Restore funding for the Byrne Justice Assistance Grant (Byrne/JAG) program
1. Establish an Energy Partnership for the Americas
2. Encourage farmers to use more renewable energy and be more energy efficient
3. Require 10 percent renewable energy by 2012
4. Release oil from Strategic Petroleum Reserve
5. Raise fuel economy standards
6. Invest in all types of alternative energy
7. Enact tax credit for consumers for plug-in hybrid cars
8. Ask people and businesses to conserve electricity
9. Require more energy-efficient appliances
10. Create a 'Green Vet Initiative' to promote environmental jobs for veterans
11. Create job training programs for clean technologies
12. Require states to provide incentives for utilities to reduce energy consumption
13. Support high-speed rail
14. Support airline service in small towns
15. Invest in public transportation
16. Equalize tax breaks for driving and public transit
17. Consider "smart growth" in transportation funding
18. Will seek more accommodations of bicycles and pedestrians
19. Help states and localities address sprawl
20. Share enviromental technology with other countries
21. Double federal spending for research on clean fuels
22. Provide grants to encourage energy-efficient building codes
23. Increase funding for the Environmental Protection Agency
1. Release presidential records
2. Require new hires to sign a form affirming their hiring was not due to political
affiliation or contributions.
3. Ban lobbyist gifts to executive employees
4. Create a national declassification center
5. Get his daughters a puppy
6. Appoint at least one Republican to the cabinet
1. Recruit math and science degree graduates to the teaching profession
2. Create an artist corps for schools
3. Increase funding for land-grant colleges
4. Champion the importance of arts education
5. Support increased funding for the NEA
6. Reduce subsidies to private student lenders and protect student borrowers
7. Provide grants to early-career researchers
8. Environment
9. Encourage water-conservation efforts in the West
10. Increase funding for national parks and forests
11. Increase funding for the Land and Water Conservation Fund
12. Create a community college partnership program
13. Pursue a wildfire management plan
14. Remove more brush, small trees and vegetation that fuel wildfires
15. More controlled burns to reduce wildfires
16. Expand access to places to hunt and fish
1. Push for enactment of Matthew Shepard Act, which expands hate crime law to
include sexual orientation and other factors
2. Repeal "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy
1. Restore funding to the EEOC and the U.S. Department of Labor's Office of
Federal Contract Compliance Programs
2. Reform mandatory minimum sentences
3. Create a White House Office on Urban Policy
4. Fully fund the Community Development Block Grant (CDBG)
5. Establish program to convert manufacturing centers into clean technology leaders
6. Establish special crime programs for the New Orleans area
6. Rebuild schools in New Orleans
7. Fund a major expansion of AmeriCorps
8. Create a Social Investment Fund Network
1. Add another Space Shuttle flight
2. Use the private sector to improve spaceflight
3. Work with international allies on space station
4. Partner to enhance the potential of the International Space Station
5. Use the International Space Station for fundamental biological and physical
research
6. Explore whether International Space Station can operate after 2016
7. Conduct robust research and development on future space missions
8. Increase spending to prepare for longer space missions
9. Work toward deploying a global climate change research and monitoring system
1. Enhance earth mapping
2. Appoint an assistant to the president for science and technology policy
3. Support commercial access to space
4. Establish school programs to highlight space and science achievements
We will kill bin Laden
I believe it’s also important to use “facts” to refute the myth that
the stimulus was a failure and didn’t help the economy. In addition to
providing apprx. 300 billion in middle-class tax cuts and another 300 to
struggling states, it did this according to the CBO:
..."CBO estimates that ARRA’s policies had the following effects in the first quarter of calendar year 2011:
My point is that this president is delivering on his promises,
fighting hard for the middle-class and advancing his progressive agenda.
Many of them were passed without fanfare because they were attached to
other pieces of legislation. I applaud this president for slowly
moving this country in the progressive direction and believe it is
totally unfair for anyone to suggest he’s not delivering on his
promises.