First Read: Caucus Day

It’s Caucus Day in Iowa… Romney yesterday: “We’re going to win this thing”… Gingrich yesterday: “I don’t think I’m going to win”… Gingrich also calls Romney a liar… Watch to watch tonight… What happens (process begins at 8:00 pm ET, results start coming in at 8:30 pm ET)… What the individual campaigns are doing to turn out their vote… Breaking down the total ad spending in Iowa… And breaking down the future ad spending in New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida… And Obama to address Democratic caucus-goers, via video conference, at 8:15 pm ET.

Read Tuesday's original First Thoughts: Caucus Day

DES MOINES, IA -- In a Republican presidential contest marked by such volatility -- with seven different GOP candidates who have stood at or near the top of the polls in Iowa -- it would be only fitting for steady Mitt Romney to come out on top at tonight’s Iowa caucuses. Or Rick Santorum, who has become the latest (and final?) conservative candidate to surge in the polls. Or Ron Paul, whose supporters aren’t your traditional Republicans and GOP caucus-goers. Those three Republicans, according to the polls, are the front-runners heading into tonight’s caucuses in Iowa, and it’s possible that any of the three could win.

Winslow Townson / AP

Republican presidential candidate, former Mass. Gov. Mitt Romney and his wife Ann walk through a square while campaigning in Concord, N.H. Friday, Dec. 23, 2011.

*** Romney: “We’re going to win this thing”: Campaigning in Marion yesterday, Romney declared that he would win the caucuses, NBC’s Garrett Haake reports. "I need every single vote in this room, and I need you to get a couple of other votes from yours in your neighborhood and get to your caucus… We’re going to win this thing with all of our passion and strength and do everything we can to get this campaign on the right track.” After the rally, Haake adds, a Romney spokesperson told reporters that the candidate was saying he would win the nomination, not predicting a caucus victory (though the quote makes it pretty clear he was talking about Iowa). In an interview with NBC’s Savannah Guthrie, Romney simply said, “We’re probably going to do pretty well.” Taking the opposite approach, Newt Gingrich yesterday observed, “I don’t think I’m going to win” in Iowa. Per NBC’s Alex Moe, Gingrich later said that was a mistake. “I got chewed out a little bit by one of our precinct captains who said to me I should not under any circumstance expect to do anything except to potentially win tomorrow night.”

NBC's Savannah Guthrie has a closer look at her interview with Mitt Romney.

*** Gingrich calls Romney a liar: Speaking of Gingrich, he appeared channel his inner Bob Dole from 1988 by calling Romney a liar. In an interview on CBS this morning, Gingrich was asked if he was calling Romney a liar, and he answered in the affirmative. “This is a man whose staff created the PAC (Restore Our Future), his friends fund the PAC, he pretends he has nothing to do with the PAC. It’s baloney. He’s not telling the American people the truth.”

NBC's Chuck Todd and David Gregory discuss why the Iowa caucuses matter and which Republican presidential hopeful will come out on top in Tuesday's race.

*** What to watch: As always in politics, the race probably hinges on turnout. If it’s similar to four years ago -- about 120,000 participants, 60% of whom are self-described evangelicals, and a combined 78% thinking that values and saying what you believe are the most important qualities -- then Santorum has a VERY good chance of winning. Under those circumstances, he becomes a mini-Huckabee. On the other hand, a much higher turnout -- so a smaller percentage of evangelicals and more thinking that electability and experience are the most important things -- would be VERY good news for Romney. A caveat on tonight’s entrance polls, though: ENTRANCE polls are less predictive than EXIT polls, so be cautious when the first wave comes out. Romney, in fact, led the first wave four years ago.

*** What happens: Republicans gather at more than 1,700 precinct locations across the Hawkeye State. The process -- at 8:00 pm ET -- starts with the election of a caucus chairman and caucus secretary. Shortly thereafter, the caucus leadership conducts a presidential preference straw poll. In most precincts, the poll is a simple, secret-ballot vote. Beforehand, each campaign is allowed to have one surrogate or volunteer speak on behalf of his or her candidate. The results begin coming in around 8:30 pm ET, and they will be available on the Iowa GOP’s web site. Note: The GOP caucusing is different from how Democrats do it. There is no shuffling from one corner to the next, or a need for 15% viability; it’s just a simple straw poll.

*** What the campaigns are doing: Here’s a round-up from NBC’s team of embed reporters on how what the different campaigns are doing to turn out their vote. The Paul campaign, per NBC’s Anthony Terrell, is asking its supporters to arrive to the precincts at 6:30 pm ET and it’s providing transportation. "If a senior or person with a disability calls and asks for a ride, we happily accommodate them," a campaign official says. Team Bachmann, according to NBC’s Jamie Novogrod, is asking its supporters to show up at 7:30 pm ET, and it’s not providing transportation. The Santorum campaign, per NBC’s Andrew Rafferty, is asking its supporters to show up around 7:00 pm ET and isn’t providing transportation. The Perry camp, per NBC’s Carrie Dann, is asking its supporters to arrive between 7:00 pm and 7:30 pm ET, and it is providing transportation. Team Romney, according to NBC’s Garrett Haake, is asking its supporters to arrive 10 minutes early and is providing transportation only for special circumstances. And the Gingrich campaign, per NBC’s Alex Moe, is asking its supporters to arrive before the caucusing, and it isn’t providing transportation.

*** Total ad spending in Iowa: By the way, the campaigns and various Super PACs spent more than $16 million in advertising in Iowa. The breakdown for the major players: Perry $4.3 million, Paul $2.8 million, Restore Our Future (pro-Romney) $2.8 million, Make Us Great Again (pro-Perry) $1.6 million, Romney $1.5 million, Gingrich $980,000, Red White and Blue Fund (pro-Santorum) $530,000, Winning Our Future (pro-Gingrich) $264,000, Bachmann $180,000, and Santorum $30,000.

Republican presidential frontrunner Mitt Romney tells TODAY's Savannah Guthrie he thinks he'll do well in Iowa but says he's "not predicting a win" in the state's caucuses. 

*** Future ad spending: And here’s what’s slated to run after today: In New Hampshire, Romney, Paul, and the pro-Huntsman Our Destiny PAC are all booked to run TV ads between tomorrow and the Jan. 9 primary. In South Carolina, Romney, Paul, and the pro-Romney Restore Our Future are booked. And in Florida, Restore Our Future is booked on broadcast advertising until Jan. 9.   

*** Obama to address Democratic caucus-goers: And while the focus is on tonight’s Republican caucuses in Iowa, Democrats hold theirs as well. And President Obama -- just back from his Christmas vacation in Hawaii -- is slated to address Iowa Democratic caucus-goers, via video teleconference, at 8:15 pm ET. And tomorrow, he goes to the important battleground state of Ohio, where he speaks in Cleveland.

Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 7 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 18 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 28 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 32 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 63 days
Countdown to Election Day: 308 days

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Discuss this post

"Gingrich calls Romney a liar" - sounds like a bunch of santorum to me.. (look it up!)

My prediction for today:

  1. Romney
  2. Santorum
  3. Paul
  4. Perry
  5. Gingrich
  6. Bachmann
  • 2 votes
Reply#1 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 1:20 PM EST

And now another message from our current leadership that the law means nothing to Obama and the "progressives"

Higher-ups within U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services are pressuring rank-and-file officers to rubber-stamp immigrants' visa applications, sometimes against the officers' will, according to a Homeland Security report and internal documents exclusively obtained by The Daily.

A 40-page report, drafted by the Office of Inspector General in September but not publicly released, details the immense pressure immigration service officers are under to approve visa applications quickly, sometimes while overlooking concerns about fraud, eligibility or security.

One-quarter of the 254 officers surveyed said they have been pressured to approve questionable cases, sometimes "against their will."

The report does not call out any particular officials and indicates that the agency has had a problem with valuing quantity over quality since at least the 1980s.

But high-ranking USCIS officials said the pressure has heightened after the Obama administration appointed Alejandro Mayorkas as director in August 2009 during an effort to pass comprehensive immigration reform, bringing with him a mantra of "get to yes."

Internal communications provided to The Daily indicate that the new leadership seemed to fundamentally clash with career agency employees over when to afford the benefit of the doubt, culminating in a whistle-blower investigation into a senior appointee and, ultimately, the agency-wide inspector general inquiry that produced the report.

"We recognize their right to interpret things as liberally as possible, but you still have to follow the law," said one high-ranking official who was unhappy with the current push.

At least five agency veterans seen as being too tough on applicants were either demoted, or given the choice between a demotion or a relocation from Southern California — where their families were — to San Francisco and Nebraska, according to sources and letters of reassignment provided to The Daily.

Those kind of threats have caused lower-level employees to fall in line, sources said.

"People are afraid," said one longtime manager, who requested anonymity for fear of being fired. "Integrity only carries people so far because they've got to pay the rent."

A rank-and-file officer who was not involved in the investigation claimed he was demoted to working on less technical cases because he had a high denial rate. "They don't reprimand you, they just move you," he said.

"They attempted to basically get me to come into line and approve a bunch of cases. And I just wouldn't compromise myself because the approvals they ordered, they weren't in line with the laws," said the officer.

These employees' claims are reflected in the inspector general report, which found that 14 percent of respondents had "serious concerns" that employees who focused on fraud or ineligibility were evaluated unfairly. The report also found that supervisors sometimes take cases away from an unwilling officer and assign them to someone else, against agency rules.

Recommendations for improvements in the report included raising the burden of proof and doing away with the popular informal and special appeals practices, which immigration lawyers said would only lengthen an already onerous process.

Attorney David Leopold, who was recently president of the American Immigration Lawyers Association, said the formal appeals process can take up to two years.

"When you're dealing with business visas, those visas cannot wait around a year, or two years, for review. They needed an answer yesterday," said Leopold. "I think when they've [the officers] made a mistake at that level ... sometimes you can just reason with people and ask them to take a look at it again."

Nevertheless, USCIS approved 86 percent of the 3.9 million immigration cases it reviewed between October 2008 and October 2009 — a 4 percent drop from the year before, according to the most recent data provided to The Daily.

And immigration attorneys complained that it seems like officers are just looking for reasons to deny a case, and already demand a higher standard of proof than what is required. That standard is now considered a 51 percent likelihood that a fact is true.

"We're getting ridiculous denials and requests for evidence on things that should be approved very easily," said immigration attorney Deb Notkin, adding that it's particularly tough for specialty industries like fashion, software development and graphic design.

The attorneys applauded Mayorkas' more open dialogue with them, and other proponents of immigration reform, who had previously felt shut out of the bureaucracy. "Mayorkas, to his credit, is very accessible, so we are able to express our concerns about the adjudication process," said Leopold.

But sometimes, the openness led to a perception that private attorneys were "running" the agency, according to the inspector general's report, which cited emails in which individual cases were granted special review after private attorneys complained to management.

Mayorkas and Homeland Security press officers said yesterday they could not comment on the allegations.

Sarah.Ryley@thedaily.com

Of course they won't comment. They are used to not having to answer to anyone, why start now??!!

    Reply#2 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 2:55 PM EST

    Romney is the same book as Obama with a different cover.

    Santorum does not support our 2nd amendment right to keep and bear arms.

      Reply#3 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 3:19 PM EST

      Get back...get back...get back to where we once belonged... the Constitution, the Bill of Rights and the Declaration of Independence.

      Less government means more freedom for you and me to do as we please.

      Nominate Dr Ron Paul for President of the United States of America 2012.

        Reply#4 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 3:23 PM EST

        Anyone who swallows the crap of less government under Republicans is simply not listening or high on drugs.

          #4.1 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 5:04 PM EST
          Reply

          Vote for Obama if you want to be a slave.

            Reply#5 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 3:27 PM EST

            You can not trust Gingrich, just ask his x wives.

              Reply#6 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 3:29 PM EST

              I said I like Ron Paul from the Republican side. I think he'll win.

                Reply#7 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 3:48 PM EST

                Before you consider voting for Romney, think about the policies he would implement. He will certainly start a war with Iran under false pretenses, he likes mandates, he is heavily supported by banks (6 of his top ten supporters are banks - you think they will get some nice deals with his administration?) and these are just the things where he has somewhat of a clear record. On so many other topics he switches his positions depending on who his talking to in order to try and garner more votes. He's in it for himself and and the people who gave him money. You and 99% of the USA will end up with the short end of the stick with him in office.

                  Reply#8 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 4:17 PM EST

                  John??? A High Ranking Bishop will start a war? Really ???

                    #8.1 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 5:05 PM EST
                    Reply

                    Of this rage of Lilliputians, the only candidate that appears even close to worth of the presidency is Romney. But he has the problem of being a shape-shifter, always ready to change his position to go along with the ideaologies of the moment. Perry has some of the scariest followers and supporters in this campaign, and I think he is basically a muddled ideologue who is in this more for himself that for the U.S. Gingrich seems to be an intellectual butterfly, generating many ideas, most of which are not well thought-out. Paul's rigid ideology hardly augurs welol for a job which demands much moe flexibility that he demonstrates. Bachman and Santorum but seem too light-weight for the job. Huntsman seems to be the most reasonable candidate -- but the Republicans don't want reasonability, they want fanaticism.

                      Reply#9 - Tue Jan 3, 2012 7:00 PM EST
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