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Subscribe to RSSCrunch time for Romney… And crunch time for Newt, too… With three weeks of TV advertising time before Christmas, don’t lose sight of the outside groups… Four storylines from our new NBC-Marist polls… Who benefits from a strong Ron Paul?... Paul and Gingrich up with new TV ads… Cain is hardly exiting the political stage… And the White House makes its push for Cordray.
Original First Thoughts posting Dec. 5
*** Crunch time for Romney: Last week was rough one for Mitt Romney. His critics jumped all over his testy/prickly interview with FOX’s Bret Baier. He didn’t wear well in a focus group of Republican primary voters in Fairfax, VA. Over the weekend, two Iowa polls (NBC-Marist and the Des Moines Register) found him trailing Newt Gingrich in the Hawkeye State, and another NBC-Marist poll showed his lead narrowing in New Hampshire. You could even argue that Herman Cain’s suspended campaign was additional bad news for Romney, because polls -- including our NBC-Marist survey -- find that Cain’s supporters tend to break for Gingrich and Ron Paul over Romney. So that’s the bad news for Romney. The good news is that he has three weeks until the Christmas holidays to right the ship. During that time, we’ll see two more debates in Iowa (on Dec. 10 and Dec. 15), as well as a significant surrogate (New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie) campaigning for him in Iowa later this week.
Brian Snyder / Reuters
Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney speaks at the Devine Millimet-Manchester Chamber of Commerce Forum in Manchester, New Hampshire November 18, 2011.
*** Flying by the seat of his pants: The next two or three weeks are also crunch time for Gingrich, as he seeks to capitalize on his new front-runner status. As the New York Times writes, “Surging in polls is one thing. But as Newt Gingrich seeks to turn his impressive performance in surveys into votes, he is scrambling madly to build the kind of organization that Mitt Romney has methodically put in place for a year, one that will let him compete through all 50 contests, often in multiple states at once… [A]s an adviser to his skeletal Iowa operation admitted, ‘The reality is we’re flying by the seat of the pants.’” Yet get this: Per NBC’s Alex Moe, Gingrich is up with his first TV ad, a positive 60-second spot that will air in Iowa. And as one of us notices, the ad’s music seems to borrow from the movie “Rudy.” Actually, who doesn’t want their political campaign compared to Rudy? We’re sure that was no accident.
*** Don’t lose sight on the outside groups: Here’s a question we have: Who is going to do the dirty work for Romney to soften up Gingrich? Will it be that pro-Romney Super PAC, Restore Our Future, which has LOTS of money, and hasn’t spent it yet? Another outside group? Remember, it was an outside group -- fronted by Robert Gibbs, of all people -- that started running TV ads hitting Howard Dean in late 2003/early 2004 to stop Dean and eventually move the nomination back to the “establishment.”
*** Four storylines from our polls: Our NBC-Marist polls of Iowa and New Hampshire contained four storylines. One, Gingrich is surging in both states. He's leading in Iowa at 26% among likely caucus-goers, followed by Romney at 18%, Paul at 17%, and Cain and Perry at 9%. (When you reallocate the Cain supporters' second choices, it's Gingrich at 28%, Paul and Romney at 19%, and Perry at 10%.) Also, in New Hampshire, Gingrich has gone from 4% in October to 23% now -- a 19-point jump. A second storyline is Romney’s decline in both states; he dropped eight points in Iowa and six points in New Hampshire. (LARGE majorities of Republicans believe Romney’s a moderate, not a conservative; can a “moderate” win a Republican primary?) A third is Rick Perry treading water, despite spending a significant amount of money on TV ads. He’s at 9% in Iowa (a two-point drop since October) and at 3% in New Hampshire (a four-point decline). Remember, no candidate has spent MORE money on TV ads so far than Perry. And a fourth storyline is Ron Paul’s strength -- he’s at 17% in Iowa and 16% in New Hampshire. And that Iowa number climbs when Cain’s not included.
*** Who benefits from a strong Paul? Paul’s strength raises this question: Who benefits in a three-way contest consisting of Gingrich, Romney, and Paul? Is it Romney, because Paul holds Gingrich back among Tea Party supporters? Or is it Gingrich? Don’t forget: Just four years ago, Fred Thompson’s campaign helped dilute Mike Huckabee’s support (especially in South Carolina), which cleared the way for John McCain to win the GOP nomination. Paul’s 15%-20% in primaries -- and it’s not like he’s in this for the short haul -- means the “winning” number in states will be under 50%. Isn’t that exactly what Romney needs? By the way, NBC’s Anthony Terrell reports that Paul is up with a new TV ad that will air in Iowa and New Hampshire. “You want big cuts? Ron Paul’s been screaming it for years,” the ad states, adding that Paul wants to eliminate the Education, HUD, Commerce, Interior, and Energy departments. "Later, bureaucrats. That's how Ron Paul rolls.”
*** Cain is hardly exiting the political stage: And while Herman Cain suspended his campaign on Saturday, he isn’t necessarily exiting stage left. Tonight, at 7:30 pm ET, Cain attends an Oklahoma Republican Party “2012 victory” event in Oklahoma City.
*** On the 2012 trail: Gingrich meets with Donald Trump in New York City… Romney raises money in California… And Santorum makes several campaign stops in Iowa.
*** The White House’s push for Cordray: Turning to the activity at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, the Obama White House is pushing to get GOP senators to support Richard Cordray nominated to head the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Politico: “President Barack Obama is targeting Red State Republican senators opposed to Richard Cordray’s nomination as director of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — part of his larger strategy to portray the GOP as pawns of Wall Street. Cordray, a well-regarded former Democratic Ohio attorney general and five-time Jeopardy! champion, is likely to be voted down Thursday by a filibuster-proof bloc of GOP senators who don’t want anyone at the helm of the watchdog until the agency’s powers are restricted. That stance, Obama advisers believe, puts GOP senators at risk from constituents who want to see the agency crack down on the financial services industry, especially payday lenders.” The push for Cordray is all part of the White House’s push to make the president look like the populist in Washington. See tomorrow’s “Teddy Roosevelt” narrative that the White House is trying to create. (We’ll have more on that tomorrow.)
*** Monday’s “Daily Rundown” line-up: David Axelrod on the president’s re-election campaign… Donald Trump on the GOP field and his upcoming forum… Marist College’s Lee Miringoff on the new NBC/Marist polls in New Hampshire and Iowa… Former Reps. Tom Davis (R-VA) and Martin Frost (D-TX) on festering fiscal friction… And more 2012 news with the AP’s Kasie Hunt, ThinkProgress.org’s Faiz Shakir and the New York Times’ Ross Douthat.
*** Monday’s “NOW with Alex Wagner” line-up: Alex Wagner’s guests include The Nation’s Ari Melber, Politico’s Maggie Haberman, the Daily Caller’s Matt Lewis, The Grio’s Joy-Ann Reid, and the Huffington Post’s Trymaine Lee.
*** Monday’s “Andrea Mitchell Reports” line-up (guest-hosted by Savannah Guthrie): NBC’s Savannah Guthrie interviews Iowa GOP Chair Matt Strawn, NBC News campaign embed Jamie Novogrod about the Gingrich/Trump meeting, Politico’s Jim VandeHei, Co-founder of “No Labels” Mark McKinnon about the state of the GOP, NBC’s Jay Gray, and the Washington Post’s Chris Cillizza.
*** Monday’s “News Nation with Tamron Hall”: MSNBC’s Tamron Hall interviews Robert Traynham, AB Stoddard, and Michael Smerconish, former Pennsylvania AG Walter Cohen (on the latest Sandusky interview), Tuft University’s Peter Levine, and liberal blogger Jane Hamsher.
Countdown to Iowa caucuses: 29 days
Countdown to New Hampshire primary: 36 days
Countdown to South Carolina primary: 47 days
Countdown to Florida primary: 57 days
Countdown to Nevada caucuses: 61 days
Countdown to Super Tuesday: 92 days
Countdown to Election Day: 339 days
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Leave a Comment:
Hmmmm, do you think that Ron Paul benefits from a strong Ron Paul?
None of them benefit from a strong Ron Paul except Ron Paul. As a Paul supporter, I'd never cast my vote for any of those neo-conservative warmongers whose idea of limited government is a national security state, secret prisons, assassination of American citizens without a trial or due process, the Patriot Act, a ramped-up War on Drugs and a propagandizing media who scares the public into supporting unnecessary wars 4 and 5 in Iran and Syria.
We will not vote for either one of the two parties, so long as each favors spending us into oblivion, continual American warfare throughout the world in the name of spreading our "values" and perpetuating a phony two-party paradigm that the pages of history will reveal to be the world's biggest sham.
re: perpetuating a phony two-party paradigm.
^ But Paul is doing that because he is a Republican. He needs to run as an independent or the only one being "phony" is him.
Why don't we just officially elect Orville Norquist dictator.
My grandchildren will study in history someday that George W. Bush was in fact the worst president in history.
wizardlip: "...George W. Bush was in fact the worst president in history."
that's a good one!! Obama is the man who said "I will not have lobbyists in my White House", while he was ushering them in the back door.
Obama is the man who said "I will rise above the politics of D.C. and bring the Parties together", when for 3 years, he's done nothing but bash Repubs and tell them to "sit in the back seat."
Obama and Carter are neck and neck in the race for the "Worst President".
Obama lied to us from the beginning. Even his own supporters saw that and were ticked. He tries to lead for behind or standing on the sidelines. You know the type, talker, has all the answers, what he would do or have done, Mr. Can't Be Wrong, ego type. We all run into them in our lives.
The real leaders step up and say what they're thinking, not calculate how it might impact their poll numbers. They see a vision of success, state it and influence those following them to believe it and support it. Talking is talking. Doing, that's another. Obviously this president can't do that. He is too absorbed in himself and his re-election. Has been since Jan 09 and his actions and lies prove it.
Hopefully we will be able to elect a true leader who can take this country back to the respectable, economic power that we used to be. We are not a nation of losers and misfits as Obama states and believes. Move over BOH. You and Joe got to go. Correct the mistake of 08!
Oh yeah, to the point...quit lingering on Bush. Last we checked, he's left the building.
(wiz) Why don't we just officially elect Orville Norquist dictator?
* * *
Wiz, That would be "Grover N." Anyway, most dictators don't usually run; no, they "community organize" for a while and then take over. LOL.
I'm not a Gingrich supporter, but did I just hear a reporter on Good Morning America say to George Steph. that when the media gets through with exposing Newt Gingrich's baggage (more than a Macy's luggage department) we'll see where his numbers are then?
I never once heard that kind of statement in regards to Obama in 07-08. It's hard to know why, but it did help him in getting us the mistake of 08 and the sad shape our country has become over the last 3 years of his leader-less style. Should the past matter? I think so but those with the responsibility to report to the American people the full story have to step up for that to happen. Like Rudolph, you'll go down in history for what you did or did not do.
Romney/Rubio 2012.
I have a good idea for a Romney ad......
Have Obama's voice in the background: "this country succeeds when everyone gets a fair shot"
and in the ad , we hear the voice of a voter saying....."Hey Mr President, how can us folks get a fair shot when you Democrats are a bunch of cheats ?"
Then we see Blago, Holder, Pelosi, Geitner, Corzine, Weiner, Rangel, and Waters.....the D.C. Democrat poster politicians who represent tax cheats , insider traders and funneling money.
ABO