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  • 9
    May
    2013
    7:24pm, EDT

    Iowa gov to 2016 hopefuls: 'Come early and often'

    By Michael O'Brien, Political Reporter, NBC News
    Follow @mpoindc

     

    DES MOINES, Iowa — Though only six months have elapsed since the last presidential election, Iowa's Republican governor is encouraging GOP White House hopefuls to begin taking trips to the Hawkeye State.

    Gov. Terry Branstad, a Republican who's been elected to five terms as governor since 1982, told NBC News on Thursday that he was far from troubled by the fellow Republicans who have already started making their way to Iowa in hopes of sewing the seeds of victory in the state's influential, first-in-the-nation nominating contest in 2016.

    "I've always had out the welcome mat. We certainly want all candidates that have an interest," Branstad said in an interview in his formal gubernatorial office inside the Iowa State Capitol. "Iowa's kind of a grassroots state. I want to encourage them to come early and often."

    It appears as though the governor is already getting his wish. Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul will make a highly-anticipated speech on Friday at the Iowa GOP's annual Lincoln Dinner, an event that will let him court some of the party's most influential activists and donors. Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker is scheduled to travel to Iowa later this month, and former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum (who narrowly won the Iowa caucus in 2012) was set to return to the state earlier this month before he was sidelined by an illness.

    Though Iowa voters just weathered the deluge of candidates associated with a presidential election year — and much can change before 2016, let alone the 2014 midterm elections — the process of selecting candidates to succeed President Barack Obama has already begun.

    Branstad name-checked a variety of Republicans whom he suggested could contend for the party's nomination in 2016: Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, former vice presidential nominee and Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, and, of course, Paul and Walker.

    "We've got a strong bench," said Lt. Gov. Kim Reynolds, whom some Republicans had unsuccessfully wooed to seek the state's open Senate seat in 2014. "They're young and it's diversified, and I think that's exciting. And I think we're going to have a lot of great candidates to choose from."

    And while there is no clear favorite heading into the still-very-distant caucuses of 2016, what is clear is that some elements of the nominating process will change by then. Branstad, for instance, has called for eliminating the Ames Straw Poll, a gathering at which Republican activists vote for their early favorite candidates months before of the caucuses.

    But the winning candidate — Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann bested the field last time — has struggled to eventually win the nomination in recent cycles.

    "In its day, the straw poll was a big celebration and big picnic and whatever, but it's gotten to the point now where a lot of top-tier candidates decide to pass it up," Branstad said. "So it isn't that meaningful, in terms of a test."

    The governor also dismissed any suggestion that Iowa might move away from its traditional caucus system in light of a Republican National Committee report earlier this year discouraging caucuses and conventions as nominating processes. Those formats, rather than a traditional balloted primary, sometimes gives impassioned activists more of an ability to sway the outcome.

    "I don't think that we could go to a primary without being in a conflict situation with New Hampshire," Branstad said. "And we've always had a wonderful understanding and agreement with New Hampshire that we would have the first caucus, and they would have the first primary. I think that system has worked well, and I'd like to see us keep it."

    101 comments

    Am I the only one who is on the edge of her seat with anticipation as to which right wing-nut nails the "IA corn poll" in 2015? Ask bat @!$%# crazy Bachmann and her flaming husband how well THAT worked out for them in 2011... lol Can you say corn dogs for all? ;o)))

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    Explore related topics: election, iowa, presidential, caucus, 2016, terry-branstad, ames-straw-poll
  • 13
    Dec
    2012
    12:02pm, EST

    Inside the numbers: The indestructible Clintons?

    By Carrie Dann, NBC News

    "Booming," "sky-high," and "formidable" are just a sampling of the adjectives often used to describe Hillary Clinton's popularity, as DC pundits speculate about her perceived ambitions for 2016.

    Pool / Getty Images

    Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton attend a dinner for Kennedy honorees on Dec. 1, 2012 in Washington, D.C.

    It's correct that Clinton (bested only by her husband Bill) enjoys the second highest approval rating of the public figures we asked about in our most recent NBC/WSJ poll. With a 58% positive / 28% negative split overall (and 100 percent name recognition), she has the kind of numbers that most political figures experience only in daydreams.

    And it's also worth noting that neither she nor her husband are strangers to the political doldrums. In April 2008, as her prospects for a primary comeback waned, she had a net negative overall approval rating. When Bill Clinton left the presidency, after his controversial pardon of Marc Rich, just 34 percent of Americans viewed him positively. 

    But as both have seen their numbers rebound to their current highs, are the Clintons' stores of political goodwill  -- built up by a couple that has largely stayed above the political fray since the end of the 2008 election -- resilient enough to bolster another run for the presidency by Hillary? 

    Here's a look at where both Clintons stand right now with some of the groups that make up a campaign-building coalition.

    (As with all deep dives into cross-tabs, insert caveat here that the margin of error for these subgroups is by definition higher than the poll's overall MOE of +/- 3.10%.) 

    Hillary Clinton enjoys a 70 percent approval rating among women. Almost seven-in-ten Hispanic respondents and and 87 percent of African-Americans also said they view her positively.

    While she is hardly beloved by the party she once derided for its penchant for "right wing conspiracy," her marks with Republicans are better than the current president's. A quarter of Republicans in the NBC/WSJ survey gave her positive ratings, while 52 percent of independents said the same. (Compare that to 10 percent of GOP respondents and 45 percent of indies for Obama.) 

    Other than being slightly underwater among white men, she has net positive ratings among almost every key constituency, with notable strength among suburban women (+44 points), blue collar workers (+24 points) and retirees (+18 points). 

    And then there's Bill. 

    The former president, who once stood at the brink of impeachment, has nearly regained the popularity he enjoyed at his first inauguration in 1993. Just a quarter of the poll's respondents said they view Bill Clinton negatively. His numbers with Republicans and independents are comparable to his wife's, but his overall popularity is buoyed by strength among white men, who view him positively by a margin of more than 30 points. 

    Both Clintons are also unsurprisingly strong with the Democratic base -- a data point that's notable only in light of the blistering attacks both launched on Barack Obama during the 2007-2008 primary battle. Disapproval for either barely registers among respondents who classified themselves as liberals or core Democrats. 

    None of this is to say that the daily volleys of a possible campaign wouldn't create some cracks in the Clintonian armor; Hillary Clinton's approval rating dropped by 10 points in the two bruising months after the Iowa caucuses in 2008, for example. 

    What goes up, both pols know, can come down. 

    But for now, speculators, "formidable" is fine. 

    133 comments

    I just read that Hillary doesn't want to run in 2016, so this article is moot. It should be noted, however, that Republicans won't get elected to dogcatchers, after this fiscal cliff fiasco.

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    Explore related topics: hillary-clinton, bill-clinton, appfeatured, 2016
  • 12
    Dec
    2012
    3:09pm, EST

    Clinton on '16 bid: 'I really don't believe that that's something I will do again'

    By Carrie Dann, NBC News

    While the question of whether Hillary Clinton will pursue the presidency again in 2016 has become a feverish parlor game in some DC circles, the Secretary of State herself is reiterating that she currently does not plan to run.  

    "I've said I really don't believe that that's something I will do again," she said in an interview with ABC's Barbara Walters. "I am so grateful I had the experience of doing it before."

    Clinton, 65, said that she is unsure exactly how she will spend her time after stepping down next year from her post as the Secretary of State, but that "all doors are open" and she hopes to have time for "some reading and writing and speaking and teaching."

    But she noted she is still in good health and enjoys "incredible stamina and energy." 

    "I've been doing, you know, this incredibly important and satisfying work here in Washington, as I say, for twenty years," she said. "I want to get out and spend some time looking at what else I can do to contribute."

    The New York Times sparked a new round of speculation with a recent A1 story examining the popular Clinton's options for the future. Aides told the Times that the former First Lady hopes to spend several months early next year resting and considering what she wants her next role to be. But few dispute that former President Bill Clinton would relish the opportunity to help her with another campaign. 

    Clinton, a bitter foe of now-president Barack Obama during the 2008 Democratic primary, offered warm words for the man who beat her for the 2008 nomination. 

    "I don't think there's any doubt now, and we have gone through enormous difficult changes," she told ABC, noting the prevalence of anti-Americanism around the globe when Obama took office. "But I think everyone knows that the United States and our leadership is to be counted on."

    4 comments

    Hillary, thanks for your public services. But as the saying goes, a lady can always exercise the god-given privilege of changing her mind. . We want Hillary 2016

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